不同季节西太平洋副高与前期北太平洋海温关系的比较分析

利用1951-2006年西太平洋副高特征指数资料和北太平洋海温资料,分析了各季节副高强度和西伸脊点指数与其前期各季节赤道东太平洋和西风漂流区两大海区海温的相关关系,并就各季节相关程度进行比较,着重海温对副高的影响作用,为副高预测提供依据。     

江西暴雨期间T639模式的短期预报效果检验

选取2010年江西汛期(4-6月)11次暴雨天气过程,对T639模式的短期预报效果进行检验.结果表明,T639模式能准确反映亚洲中、高纬度大尺度环流的演变趋势和调整,对蕈大天气过程有较强的预报能力.模式对副高脊线位置预报误差较小.对副高强度和西脊点位置的预报随着季节转变存在系统性误差,4-5月预报的副高强度较实况明显偏...     

2018年8月深圳一次连续暴雨过程初步分析

利用NCEP FNL 1°×1°再分析资料、自动气象站数据和风廓线雷达等资料,对2018年8月28日至31日由季风低压造成的深圳连续暴雨过程进行了初步分析。结果表明:连续暴雨期间,南亚高压稳定少动,西北太平洋副热带高压呈双脊型并缓慢西伸,北脊阻挡西南季风北上,使得季风低压在双脊之间缓慢西移并发展加强,为持续暴雨发生提供了必要的大尺度环流条件。强盛时期的季风低压垂直伸展范围约8~9 km,直至对流层中层,与副高之间气压梯度加大,导致低空急流加强并向下传播,深厚的急流区为暴雨提供充足的水汽和能量。低空急流的向下传播时间早于短时强降水发生0.5~1 h。925 hPa及其以下的对流层底层风场呈气旋式辐合,是重要的抬升触发条件。而1 km以下风场由西南风转为偏南风,在地形抬升作用下加速上升运动,最大垂直上升速度达0.5 Pa/s,地形对降水具有显著的增幅作用。     

关于大尺度地形对平均温度场形成作用的一个讨论

本文根据两层斜压模式得到大尺度地形对1000—500mb 平均温度场的常定扰动.结果得到大地形对温度槽脊的形成具有一定的作用,而地形所造成的高度槽在垂直方向上没有倾斜现象.     

东亚加热场和大地形对大气环流季节变化影响的数值试验

众所周知,地球的地貌以及由其引起的热力差异对于大气活动中心和平均槽脊的形成及其季节变化有很重大的影响。为了研究这种影响,我们最近用钱永甫等人设计的 P—σ二层原始方程模式和姚兰昌等人计算的1979年1—12月东亚大气平均冷热源进行了一些数值试验。试验共分两类,一类是有地形无冷热源,一类是有地形有冷热源,都做了12个月。试验的主要结果是(1)大尺度地形产生的扰动及其年变化和实测的西风带平均槽脊形势及其年变化是相似的。(2)大地形扰动的强度和西风带的强度成正比,可是大地形扰动的季节变化主要是与急流的位置变化有关。(3)加热场的一个主要作用在于加深东亚大槽和减弱高原北面的地形脊。(4)无论冬夏加热场作用总能使最大西风有所增加。加热场对对流层急流位置的季节变化有所贡献。(5)东亚的加热场对盛夏南亚高压的建立有重大贡献。还需指出的是看来热源处在对流层平均风速很小的东西风交界处是南亚高压生成的必要条件。     

201209台风“苏拉”的移动路径和降水分析

通过对大尺度环流背景、副高强弱变化、温度场的分布以及物理量场的研究表明,影响201209号台风“苏拉”路径的主要因素是副高南侧东南气流为引导气流,另外双台风效应对“苏拉”路径作用明显;西南季风活跃提供源源不断的水汽和能量以及出现了Ekman抽吸作用,使得台风登陆后强度减弱慢,强降水维持,造成大范围的暴雨天气.     

2020年秋季我国气候异常特征及成因分析

2020年秋季,我国气候总体呈现"暖湿"的特点,但是季节内变率很大,9月降水"南多北少"、10月降水"中间多南北少",11月降水"北多南少"。环流特征显示,秋季欧亚中高纬度总体为"两脊一槽"型,季节内波动大;西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)持续偏强、偏大,西伸明显,但脊线位置的季节内变化大,9月偏南,10月略偏北,11月明显偏北。外强迫信号影响分析显示,热带印度洋全区一致偏暖有利于副高持续偏强、偏大、偏西;而热带中东太平洋El Nino事件春季结束后于秋季进入La Nina状态的海温演变过程,对热带和副热带环流系统具有重要影响,有利于秋季(尤其是10月)副高偏北。9月降水"南多北少"的异常分布与南海区域对流活动偏弱、偏南导致的副高偏南有关。研究显示,海温外强迫演变以及热带对流活动季内变化的共同作用导致了 2020年秋季降水呈现出季节内变率大的特征。     

青藏高原冬春积雪影响南海季风爆发的数值研究

采用NCAR CAM3.0大气环流模式,研究了冬春季青藏高原积雪异常对南海夏季风爆发的可能影响机制.通过比较多雪年与少雪年试验中的热力场、环流场季节演变的差异得出,多雪年青藏高原感热加热偏弱、高原纬度的中上层大气温度偏低,导致大尺度经向温度梯度反转时间偏晚；同时,青藏高原感热加热偏弱将不利于Hadley环流的季节转换,使得中南半岛上空的下沉异常气流维持时间较长、副高在孟加拉湾断裂的时间偏晚、中南半岛对流爆发偏晚、中南半岛地表温度下降时间偏晚,从而造成中南半岛与南海局地纬向温度梯度反转时间也偏晚.在上述大尺度经向温度梯度以及中南半岛与南海局地纬向温度梯度的共同作用下,多雪年南海季风爆发偏晚.     

2003年淮河多雨期西太平洋副高活动特征及其成因分析

分析2003年淮河多雨期西太平洋副高活动特征，认为副高脊线位置偏南和相对稳定、西脊点偏西以及三次南北和东西振荡的中短期活动过程，是2003年淮河多雨期副高活动的主要特征，符合江淮流域洪涝年份副高活动的统计规律。利用动力学理论和天气学原理，进一步分析和探讨2003年淮河多雨期副高活动的成因和机制。研究结果不仅证实了副高已有的研究结果，还揭示出副高与西风带系统和副热带急流活动之间新的特征关系。     

夏季西太平洋副高脊线的活动特征及其可能的机制

通过对多年平均的逐日资料的分析表明 ,夏季不同区域副热带高压脊轴的垂直结构和活动特征存在明显不同 ,这与空间非均匀加热的分布密切相关。西太平洋地区副高脊轴随高度向北倾斜 ,而 1 60°E～ 1 80°地区向南倾斜 ;北太平洋中、西部副高在北进期的脊线活动均存在显著的 1 0～ 2 0 d周期低频振荡 ,东亚季风区还具有明显的准 40 d振荡周期。分析表明 :副高的季节性南北移动主要受太阳辐射的影响 ,而空间非均匀加热起着调节副高移动速率以及改变副高强度的作用 ,特别是对副高的异常活动起重要作用     

副热带高压脊线移动的三维结构特征

文中定义了东西风交界面作为表征副热带高压脊线位置的动力学参量 ,并利用 NCEP/NCAR再分析月平均资料在三维空间中考察了东西风交界面的空间、时间变化特征。分析结果表明 :副热带高压位置移动以季节变化为主 ,季节变化由南北移动和斜率变化两类运动组成 ;副热带高压位置移动的年际变化和 ENSO事件关系密切 ;南半球副热带高压具有纬向对称的垂直结构 ,北半球副热带高压垂直结构较为复杂 ,尤其是西太平洋副热带高压表现出在全球副热带高压系统中的独特性。     

MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE LINE OF SUMMER WEST PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND ITS POSSIBLE MECHANISM*

The analysis of the 40-year averaged daily data in this paper suggests that the vertical structure and movement of subtropical high (SH) ridge in summer evidently differ in different areas,which is close related with spatially nonuniform heating.The SH ridge over the West Pacific tilts northwards with height,while one over the Central Pacific tilts southwards.The northward movements of the Central/West Pacific SH ridges both show distinct low frequency oscillations of 10-20 days,and the movement over the East Asian monsoon area shows obvious oscillations of quasi-40-days as well.The analysis shows that the solar radiation drives the seasonal meridional movement of SH,while the spatially nonuniform heating modifies its movement speed and intensity,thus resulting in its anomalous motion.     

INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SUMMER SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND SST AND PREDICTION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH

Most of the study on correlation between the subtropical high and SST focus on the location or intensity of the former versus the latter. It is worthwhile to work on links other than what is usually addressed to identify guidelines in the prediction of the subtropical high. Based on the analysis of subtropical high in west Pacific summer and its correlation with SST in equatorial and north Pacific from previous December to subsequent November, correlation between the area index, west-extending point, location of the subtropical high ridge and SST is discussed. It is conducted by looking into the confidence level of gridpoints and their percentage in the total and examining how they vary with time. From the point of intensity and movement/expansion, feedbacks from the subtropical high to SST are also studied. The SST affects the subtropical high just as the subtropical high affects the SST. A linkage model is thus set up to assist the making of summer rainfall prediction in China's raining seasons.     

热带气旋对副热带高压短期时间尺度变化的影响

文中用ＮＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ逐日资料对西太平洋副热带高压的短期时间尺度演化进行了诊断研究，接　着对诊断结果进行了理论分析，并用一个正压原始方程模式实施数值试验。结果表明，　副热　带高压南侧东风气流中的热带气旋及其频散生成高值系统与副热带高压的相互作用，可以形　成台风北上副热带　高压断裂后的纬向非对称流型和脊线与纬圈斜交的现象；同时讨论了存在这种相互作用的约　束条件。     

STUDY ON THE VARIATION IN THE CONFIGURATION OF SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE AND ITS MECHANISM DURING SEASONAL TRANSITION-PART I:CLIMATOLOGICAL FEATURES OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH STRUCTURE*

Climatological characteristics of subtropical anticyclone structure during seasonal transition are investigated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data.The ridge-surface of subtropical anticyclone is defined by the boundary surface between westerly to the north and easterly to the south (WEB in brief).In Afro-Asian monsoon area,the subtropical high in troposphere whose ridgelines are consecutive in wintertime takes on relatively symmetrical and zonal structure,the WEB tilts southward with increasing height.In summer,the subtropical high ridgelines are discontinuous at low levels and continuous at upper levels,the WEB tilts northward from the bottom up.Under the constraint of thermal wind relation,the WEB usually tilts toward warmer zone.May is the period when subtropical high modality most significantly varies.The structure and properties of subtropical high during seasonal transition are different from area to area.A new concept "seasonal transition axis" is proposed based on formation and variation of the vertical ridge axis of subtropical anticyclone.The subtropical high of summer pattern firstly occurs over eastern Bay of Bengal in the beginning of May.then stabilizes over eastern Bay of Bengal,Indo-China,and western South China Sea in the 3rd pentad of May,it exists over the South China Sea in the 4th-5th pentad of May and establishes over central India in the 1st-2nd pentad of June.The three consequential stages when summer modal subtropical high occurs correspond to that of Asian summer monsoon onset,respectively.To a great extent,the summer monsoon onset over the Bay of Bengal depends on the reversal of meridional temperature gradient in vicinity of the WEB in upper troposphere.The meridional temperature gradient at middle-upper levels in troposphere can be used as a good indicator for measuring the seasonal transition and Asian monsoon onset.     

海温变化与副热带高压季节活动的数值模拟

本文采用二维纬向平均模式,通过数值试验来研究海温的变化对副热带高压(以下简称副高)季节活动的影响。结果表明,副高对西太平洋中纬度海温的响应存在3—5个月的滞后。所以,当3月至5月西太平洋中纬度海域为感热正距平时,相应地当年7月至9月副高减弱并南移。反之,则北移增强。      

影响北京夏季降水异常的大尺度环流特征

利用1951--2004年500hPa高度场、副高特征量及北京降水量资料,采用相关和合成分析方法,研究了夏季北半球500hPa环流异常与北京旱涝的关系。结果表明：北京夏季降水与副高强度和位置的关系比较复杂,中高纬与副热带环流特征的各种配置会对北京夏季降水产生不同的影响。欧亚中高纬环流出现欧亚-太平洋遥相关型,华北上空持续受高压控制;北京及附近地区处在西高东低的形势下,持续受西北下沉气流控制是北京夏季少雨的有利环流条件。北京及附近地区位于低压槽区或处在东高西低的下游“阻塞”形势,是北京夏季多雨的基本环流条件。研究的结果为北京地区夏季旱涝预测提供了环流背景。     

Seasonal Variation of the Meridional Wind in the Temperate Jet Stream and Its Relationship to the Asian Monsoon

The features of the temperate jet stream including its location, intensity, structure, seasonal evolution and the relationship with the Asian monsoon are examined by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. It is indicated that the temperate jet stream is prominent and active at 300 hPa in winter over the region from 45°-60°N and west of 120°E. The temperate jet stream is represented by a ridge area of high wind speed and dense stream lines in the monthly or seasonal mean wind field, but it .corresponds to an area frequented by a large number of jet cores in the daily wind field and exhibits a distinct boundary that separates itself with the subtropical jet. A comparison of the meridional wind component of the temperate jet stream with that of the subtropical jet shows that the northerly wind in the temperate jet stream is stronger than the southerly component of the subtropical jet, which plays an important role in the temperate jet stream formation and seasonal evolution, and thus the intensity change of the meridional wind component can be used to represent the temperate jet stream＇s seasonal variation. Analysis of the temperature gradient in the upper troposphere indicates that the temperate jet stream is accompanied by a maximum zonal temperature gradient and a large meridional temperature gradient, leading to a unique jet stream structure and particular seasonal evolution features, which are different from the subtropical jet. The zonal temperature gradient related to the land-sea thermal contrast along the East China coastal lines is responsible for the seasonal evolution of the temperate jet. In addition, there exists a coordinated synchronous change between the movement of the temperate jet and that of the subtropical jet. The seasonal evolution of the meridional wind intensity is closely related to the seasonal shift of the atmospheric circulation in East Asia, the onset of the Asian summer monsoon and the start of Meiyu in the Yangtze and Huaihe River Valleys, and it correlates well with summer and wint     

Large scale aspects of India-China summer monsoon rainfall

This study investigates the dominant modes of variability in monthly and seasonal rainfall over the India-China region mainly through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis. The EOFs have shown that whereas the rain-fall over India varies as one coherent zone, that over China varies in east-west oriented bands. The influence of this banded structure extends well into India.Relationship of rainfall with large scale parameters such as the subtropical ridge over the Indian and the western Pacific regions, Southern Oscillation, the Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature and stratospheric winds have also been investigated. These results show that the rainfall over the area around 40oN, 110oE over China is highly related with rainfall over India. The subtropical ridge over the Indian region is an important predictor over India as well as over the northern China legion.     

副热带高压自身变化周期和形态结构对入梅的影响

针对2010年江淮入梅预报出现偏差情况,利用2008、2010、2011年降水实况资料和6-7月NCEP再分析资料,分析了预报出现偏差的原因,讨论了副热带高压水平移动和垂直结构对降水落区的影响,分析了局地入梅的预报方法和参考指标.研究发现:副热带高压(以下简称“副高”)和南亚高压的自身双周振荡规律在预报中不可忽略,在对大尺度系统和较长时间系统的变化判断时,高层系统的预报可信度可能更高.另外,在对梅雨预报时,副高垂直结构的变化对降水落区有一定影响,当500 hPa副高脊线越过20°N,副高脊线自上而下向南倾斜时,底层脊线在20°N以南,不利于江淮地区降水发生.副高上下结构垂直度较大时,利于降水落区北移.副高西脊点自高空到低空呈自西向东倾斜,500 hPa西脊点偏西也不利于江淮梅雨期的开始.