Simulating the effects of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model

The climate changes that occured following the volcanic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Phillippines on 15 June 1991 have been simulated using the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model （AGCM）. The model was forced by a reconstructed spatial-time distribution of stratospheric aerosols intended for use in long climate simulations. Four statistical ensembles of the AGCM simulations with and without volcanic aerosols over a period of 5 years following the eruption have been made, and the calculated fields have been compared to available observations. The model is able to reproduce some of the observed features after the eruption, such as the winter warming pattern that was observed over the Northern Hemisphere （NH） during the following winters. This pattern was caused by an enhanced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient in the stratosphere that developed due to aerosol heating of the tropics. This in turn led to a strengthening of the polar vortex, which tends to modulate the planetary wave field in such a way that an anomalously positive Arctic Oscillation pattern is produced in the troposphere and at the surface, favouring warm conditions over the NH. During the summer, the model produced a more uniform cooling over the NH.     

A review of global stratospheric aerosol: Measurements, importance, life cycle, and local stratospheric aerosol

Stratospheric aerosol, noted after large volcanic eruptions since at least the late 1800s, were first measured in the late 1950s, with the modern continuous record beginning in the 1970s. Stratospheric aerosol, both volcanic and non-volcanic are sulfuric acid droplets with radii (concentrations) on the order of 0.1–0.5 µm (0.5–0.005 cm^− 3), increasing by factors of 2–4 (10–10³) after large volcanic eruptions. The source of the sulfur for the aerosol is either through direct injection from sulfur-rich volcanic eruptions, or from tropical injection of tropospheric air containing OCS, SO₂, and sulfate particles. The life cycle of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol, consisting of photo-dissociation and oxidation of sulfur source gases, nucleation/condensation in the tropics, transport pole-ward and downward in the global planetary wave driven tropical pump, leads to a quasi steady state relative maximum in particle number concentration at around 20 km in the mid latitudes. Stratospheric aerosol have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation balance for several years following volcanic eruptions. Away from large eruptions, the direct radiation impact is small and well characterized; however, these particles also may play a role in the nucleation of near tropopause cirrus, and thus indirectly affect radiation. Stratospheric aerosol play a larger role in the chemical, particularly ozone, balance of the stratosphere. In the mid latitudes they interact with both nitrous oxides and chlorine reservoirs, thus indirectly affecting ozone. In the polar regions they provide condensation sites for polar stratospheric clouds which then provide the surfaces necessary to convert inactive to active chlorine leading to polar ozone loss. Until the mid 1990s the modern record has been dominated by three large sulfur-rich eruptions: Fuego (1974), El Chichón (1982) and Pinatubo (1991), thus definitive conclusions concerning the trend of non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol could only recently be made. Although anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ have changed somewhat over the past 30 years, the measurements during volcanically quiescent periods indicate no long term trend in non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol.     

The Impact of Arctic Ozone Depletion on Northern Middle Latitudes: Interannual Variability and Dynamical Control

We have investigated the effect of the export of Arctic ozone loss, or`dilution', on mid-latitude ozone depletion during the 1990s, and its relation tointerannual meteorological variability. A stratospheric chemical-transport modelincorporated a simple gas-phase ozone scheme with the addition of a parameterisation ofpolar depletion which depended only on temperature and duration of sunlight. Themodel was forced with the U.K. Meteorological Office analyses from 1991 to 1999 covering eight Northern Hemisphere winters. The modelled Arctic ozone column losses wereabout half the magnitude of those in the Antarctic and showed a considerablevariation from year to year. The northern middle latitudes (40°–60° N)were mainly affected through dilution and experienced a variable 5–20%depletion. Year-round there is a depletion of about 1% in northern middle latitudes due toactivation at the pole but there is no evidence that this depletion increases with timeduring this integration. A series of inert tracer experiments for the winters from 1996 to 1999 showed that the dilution occurs primarily at the 560 K and 465 K isentropic levels where up to 30% of the airoriginating northward of 67° N on 1 March is found at 47° N later in spring. Thestrength and persistence of the Arctic vortex were crucial in determining the severity and the timing of the ozone dilution every year by influencing, respectively, the magnitude of the high-latitude depletion and the effectiveness of mixing to lower latitudes. This spring dilution was correlated with the winter/spring planetary wave activity indicating the important role of dynamical processes in regulating the polar-driven mid-latitude ozone depletion.     

The impact of high altitude aircraft on the ozone layer in the stratosphere

The paper discusses the potential effects on the ozone layer of gases released by the engines of proposed high altitude supersonic aircraft. The major problem arises from the emissions of nitrogen oxides which have the potential to destroy significant quantities of ozone in the stratosphere. The magnitude of the perturbation is highly dependent on the cruise altitude of the aircraft. Furthermore, the depletion of ozone is substantially reduced when heterogeneous conversion of nitrogen oxides into nitric acid on sulfate aerosol particles is taken into account in the calculation. The sensitivity of the aerosol load on stratospheric ozone is investigated. First, the model indicates that the aerosol load induced by the SO₂ released by aircraft is increased by about 10–20% above the background aerosols at mid-high latitude of the Northern Hemisphere at 15 km for the NASA emission scenario A (the NASA emission scenarios are explained in Tables I to III). This increase in aerosol has small effects on stratospheric ozone. Second, when the aerosol load is increased following a volcanic eruption similar to the eruption of El Chichon (Mexico, April 1982), the ozone column in spring increases by as much as 9% in response to the injection of NO _x from the aircraft with the NASA emission scenario A. Finally, the modeled suggests that significant ozone depletion could result from the formation of additional polar stratospheric clouds produced by the injection of H₂O and HNO₃ by the aircraft engines.     

Total ozone variations in the tropical belt: An application for quality of ground based measurements

Summary The study of the regime of ozone variations in the huge tropical belt (25° S to 25° N), which are, in general, very small and zonally nearly symmetric, permits to establish a statistical model for estimating the ozone deviations using Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data. The equatorial stratospheric winds at 25 and 50hPa and the solar flux at 10.7 cm are used as major predictors and the linear trend was also estimated. The 10m/sec stratospheric wind change is related to1.2% ozone change at the equator, to practically no change in the 8–15° belts and up to 1.4% change with opposite phase over the tropics in spring but nearly zero change in fall. The solar cycle related amplitude is about 1.4% per 100 units of 10.7 cm solar flux. The ozone trends are negative: not significant over the equator and about –2% per decade (significant at 95% level) over the tropics. The latter could have been enforced by the 2 to 4% lower ozone values during 1991–1993, part of which might be related to the effects of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, but might also be due to the strong QBO. The estimated deviations are verified versus reliable observations and the very good agreement permits applying the model for quantitative quality control of the reported ozone data from previous years. The standard deviation of the difference between observed ozone deviations and those estimated from the model is only 0.9–1.6% for yearly mean, that means instruments used for total ozone observations in the tropical belt should have systematic error of less than 1%. Cases when the discrepancies between the model and reported observations at a given station exceed 2–3% for time interval of 2 or more years should be verified.With 17 Figures     

中国10个地方大气气溶胶1980～1994年间变化特征研究

作者发展了一个从地面上太阳短波直射辐射和能见度信息综合确定大气柱气溶胶总光学厚度和平流层气溶胶光学厚度的方法，并应用这个方法从气象台站观测资料反演得到北京、昆明、喀什、上海、广州、郑州、沈阳、武汉、格尔木和乌鲁木齐等10个地方从1980到1994年间晴天气溶胶光学厚度资料，分析了这些地方气溶胶光学厚度月变化和年变化特征，并侧重分析了1982年墨西哥厄尔奇琼火山和1991年菲律宾皮纳图博火山爆发对气溶胶光学厚度的影响。     

Volcanoes and Climate: Sizing up the Impact of the Recent Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcanic Eruption from a Historical Perspective

An undersea volcano at Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) near the South Pacific island nation of Tonga, erupted violently on 15 January 2022. Potential climate impact of the HTHH volcanic eruption is of great concern to the public; here, we intend to size up the impact of the HTHH eruption from a historical perspective. The influence of historical volcanic eruptions on the global climate are firstly reviewed, which are thought to have contributed to decreased surface temperature, increased stratospheric temperature, suppressed global water cycle, weakened monsoon circulation and El Ni?o-like sea surface temperature. Our understanding of the impacts of past volcanic eruptions on global-scale climate provides potential implication to evaluate the impact of the HTHH eruption. Based on historical simulations, we estimate that the current HTHH eruption with an intensity of 0.4 Tg SO₂ injection will decrease the global mean surface temperature by only 0.004°C in the first year after eruption, which is within the amplitude of internal variability at the interannual time scale and thus not strong enough to have significant impacts on the global climate.     

Observation of the Stratospheric NO2 Latitudinal Distribution in the Northern Winter Hemisphere

During a series of flights in the winters 1991/92 to 1994/95 total stratospheric NO2 was measured by means of the DOAS (Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy) technique on board a C160 (Transall) aircraft. In an area covering 60°W to 60°E, and 16°N to 86°N, the total stratospheric NO2 was observed to vary markedly with latitude and season (winter and spring). In the mid-winter Arctic vortex extremely low total stratospheric NO2 (< 3.1014/cm2) was always found, generally larger amounts of NO2 occurred outside the vortex in winter and towards the spring both inside and outside the vortex. This behaviour of stratospheric NO2 can be explained by the denoxification of the wintertime polar stratosphere. Ambient to the vortex in mid-winter however, sudden increases of total stratospheric NO2 by about a factor of 3 were observed. These sudden increases in stratospheric NO2 coincide with a change in the wavenumber 2 of the geopotential height at 60°N, which indicates that most likely the events are caused by planetary waves efficiently transporting air masses rich in NOx from lower to higher latitudes. The monitoring of stratospheric NO2, during latitudinal traverses ranging from the Arctic (80°N) to the Subtropics (18°N) in spring also unexpectedly showed a large variability in total stratospheric NO2 at mid-latitudes. Since photochemistry almost certainly can be excluded, it is proposed that the observed variability may be due to the planetary wave activity of the stratospheric surf zone, known to dynamically connect the tropical and the polar stratosphere.     

The Effect of Super Volcanic Eruptions on Ozone Depletion in a Chemistry–Climate Model

With the gradual yet unequivocal phasing out of ozone depleting substances(ODSs), the environmental crisis caused by the discovery of an ozone hole over the Antarctic has lessened in severity and a promising recovery of the ozone layer is predicted in this century. However, strong volcanic activity can also cause ozone depletion that might be severe enough to threaten the existence of life on Earth. In this study, a transport model and a coupled chemistry–climate model were used to simulate the impacts of super volcanoes on ozone depletion. The volcanic eruptions in the experiments were the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption and a 100 × Pinatubo size eruption. The results show that the percentage of global mean total column ozone depletion in the 2050 RCP8.5 100 × Pinatubo scenario is approximately 6% compared to two years before the eruption and 6.4% in tropics. An identical simulation, 100 × Pinatubo eruption only with natural source ODSs, produces an ozone depletion of 2.5% compared to two years before the eruption, and with 4.4% loss in the tropics. Based on the model results,the reduced ODSs and stratospheric cooling lighten the ozone depletion after super volcanic eruption.     

平流层火山气溶胶时空传播规律及其气候效应

根据平流层火山气溶胶传播规律研究,该文构建了反映火山喷发强度、平流层火山气溶胶相对浓度、火山气溶胶扩散速率和反映火山爆发地理位置并且按e指数规律衰减的火山活动指数(VEI)时空分布函数,进一步建立了北半球中高纬度、南北半球低纬度和南半球中高纬度3个1945-2008年逐月火山活动指数时间序列。根据3个逐月火山活动指数时间序列分别分析了北半球中高纬度、南北半球低纬度和南半球中高纬度火山活动对于相应纬度带地面气温的影响。研究表明:无论南北半球还是热带,火山活动强时地面气温下降,火山活动弱时地面气温上升,并且地面气温对于火山活动的响应明显滞后。     

Three centuries of observation of stratospheric transparency

A chronology of stratospheric aerosol optical depth for the period 1671–1881 is derived from total lunar eclipse colors. It is compared with available proxy time series for the same period and with more refined data for more recent years. Contrary to previous speculations, the stratosphere from 1671 to 1881 seems to have been mostly undisturbed volcanically, with only two or three eruptions having injected into it truly significant amounts of aerosol-producing and climate-altering sulfur gases. It is confirmed that the full record for 1671–2000 shows a marked, though possibly quasiregular, ∼80 year periodicity in stratospheric aerosol optical depth, which appears also in polar ice-core acidity records and in volcanic eruption frequencies.     

青藏高原地区气溶胶直接辐射强迫的数值模拟研究

通过比较EMAC模式模拟结果和卫星观测结果证实了模式的可信性,进而利用模拟结果分析研究了2010～2012年青藏高原上空气溶胶光学厚度及其直接辐射强迫的时空分布规律.结果 表明:所有气溶胶组分中,沙尘、水溶性气溶胶和气溶胶中液态水是高原的主要消光物质,三者年平均消光占比分别为0.27、0.20和0.49.2011年夏季...     

Extremely low temperatures in the stratosphore and very low total ozone amount above northern and central Europe during winter 1989

On 1 February 1989, -83.5°C was recorded in 27.8 hPa over Hohenpeißenberg, the lowest temperature in the 22-year series. This was measured together with a very low total ozone amount of 266 DU. This may be compared with nearly twice this amount on 27 February 1989. The situation was very unusual: following an extremely cold winter in the Arctic stratosphere, the stratospheric cold pole was located over southern Scandinavia on 1 February in a very southerly position. The analyzed temperatures of -92 °C in 30 hPa were also unusual. Even though the low ozone amounts over Hohenpeißenberg were probably dynamically caused, an additional very small ozone decrease due to heterogeneous reactions in altitudes from 23–28 km, where the temperatures lie below -80 °C, cannot be ruled out. Extinction measurements by the orbitting SAGE II instrument indeed show polar stratospheric clouds over Europe near 50° N during the period 31 January–2 February. Also, polar stratospheric clouds were previously observed over Kiruna at similarly low temperatures and signs of a corresponding small ozone decrease were noted there.     

Centennial-scale climate change from decadally-paced explosive volcanism: a coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism

Northern Hemisphere summer cooling through the Holocene is largely driven by the steady decrease in summer insolation tied to the precession of the equinoxes. However, centennial-scale climate departures, such as the Little Ice Age, must be caused by other forcings, most likely explosive volcanism and changes in solar irradiance. Stratospheric volcanic aerosols have the stronger forcing, but their short residence time likely precludes a lasting climate impact from a single eruption. Decadally paced explosive volcanism may produce a greater climate impact because the long response time of ocean surface waters allows for a cumulative decrease in sea-surface temperatures that exceeds that of any single eruption. Here we use a global climate model to evaluate the potential long-term climate impacts from four decadally paced large tropical eruptions. Direct forcing results in a rapid expansion of Arctic Ocean sea ice that persists throughout the eruption period. The expanded sea ice increases the flux of sea ice exported to the northern North Atlantic long enough that it reduces the convective warming of surface waters in the subpolar North Atlantic. In two of our four simulations the cooler surface waters being advected into the Arctic Ocean reduced the rate of basal sea-ice melt in the Atlantic sector of the Arctic Ocean, allowing sea ice to remain in an expanded state for?>?100 model years after volcanic aerosols were removed from the stratosphere. In these simulations the coupled sea ice-ocean mechanism maintains the strong positive feedbacks of an expanded Arctic Ocean sea ice cover, allowing the initial cooling related to the direct effect of volcanic aerosols to be perpetuated, potentially resulting in a centennial-scale or longer change of state in Arctic climate. The fact that the sea ice-ocean mechanism was not established in two of our four simulations suggests that a long-term sea ice response to volcanic forcing is sensitive to the stability of the seawater column, wind, and ocean currents in the North Atlantic during the eruptions.     

Volcanic Dry Fogs, Climate Cooling, and Plague Pandemics in Europe and the Middle East

Dry fogs spawned by large volcanic eruptions cool the climate by partially blocking incident sunlight and perturbing atmospheric circulation patterns. The climatic and epidemiological consequences of seven intense volcanic dry fogs of the past 21 centuries, detected in Europe and the Middle East, are investigated by using historical reports, supplemented by tree-ring data and polar-ice acidity measurements. The signal-to-noise ratio in the historical data is very high. In four cases, the first winter following the eruption was exceptionally cold. The eruptions preceding these frigid first winters are known, or strongly suspected, to have occurred at high northern latitudes. Two of the other dry fogs are linked unambiguously to tropical eruptions, after each of which the first winter was comparatively mild. The following few years tended to be cooler on the average in all six of the instances that can be checked. Famine and disease pandemics ensued, with the epidemics in all cases reaching the Mediterranean area within 1 to 5 years after the eruptions. In at least five cases, the contagion responsible for the mass mortality was probably plague.     

An update on dynamical changes in the Arctic and Antarctic stratospheric polar vortices

Dynamical changes in the Arctic and Antarctic lower stratosphere from autumn to spring were analysed using the NCEP/NCAR, ERA40 and FUB stratospheric analyses for three periods: 1979–1999, 1979–2005, and 1965–2005. We found a weakening of the Arctic vortex in winter and a strengthening in spring between 1979/1980 and 1998/1999, with corresponding changes in the zonal mean circulation. The vortex formed earlier in autumn and broke down later in spring. These changes however were statistically not significant due to the high interannual dynamical variability in northern hemisphere (NH) winter and spring and the relatively short time series. In the Antarctic, the vortex formed earlier in autumn, intensified in late spring, and broke down later. The changes of the Antarctic vortex were at all levels and for both autumn and spring transitions larger and more significant than the changes of the Arctic vortex. These changes of the 1980s and early to mid 1990s were however not representative of a long-term change. The dynamically more active winters in the Arctic and Antarctic since 1998/1999 led to an enhanced weakening of the polar vortex in winter, and to a reduction of the polar vortex intensification in spring. As two of the recent Arctic major warmings occurred rather early in winter the polar vortex could recover in late winter and the delay in spring breakdown further increased. In contrast, the increase in Antarctic vortex persistence did no longer appear when including the recent winters due to the dominant impact of the three recent dynamically active Antarctic winters in 2000, 2002, and 2004. The long-term changes of 1965/1966–2005 were smaller in amplitude and partly opposite to the trends since the 1980s. There is no significant long-term change in the Arctic vortex lifetime or spring persistence, while the Antarctic vortex shows a long-term deepening and shift towards later spring transitions. The changes in the stratospheric dynamical situation could be attributed in both hemispheres to changes in the dynamical forcing from the troposphere.     

Tropospheric Ozone at the Swedish Mountain Site Åreskutan: Budget and Trends

Ozone measurements, performed since 1987, at the Swedish TOR/EUROTRACstation Åreskutan (lat. 63.4° N, long. 13.1° E, 1250 m abovesea level) are analyzed. The annual average ozone concentration at the sitehas increased by about 0.4 ppbv (1%) per year during the period1987–1994. The corresponding trends for individual months show adecrease during April–September and an increase during the rest of theyear. The ozone budget at Åreskutan has been investigated using backtrajectories of the air parcels, and the cosmogenic radionuclide⁷Be as a tracer of stratospheric air. From a simple diagnosticmodel, it is estimated that the contribution of stratospheric ozone to theconcentrations measured at Åreskutan is 5 ppbv (or 14% of themeasured values) on average, reaching a maximum of 23 ppbv (50%),during the episodes of direct stratospheric influence. In spring, thestratospheric contribution to ozone budget at Åreskutan is at itsmaximum, and approximately equal to the net photochemical ozone productionin the air mass affecting the site, whereas in winter, it is compensated byozone chemical sink during the transport of air masses from pollutedEuropean regions, to Scandinavia.     

Groundbased Doas UV/visible measurements at Kiruna (Sweden) during the sesame winters 1993/94 and 1994/95.

Zenith sky observations of O3, NO2, OClO and BrO are reported, which were performed at Kiruna (67.9°N, 21.1°E) within the SESAME winters 1993/1994 and 1994/95. For both winters large total amounts of OClO were observed inside the polar vortex at twilight, indicating the degree and the temporal variation of the halogen activation of the polar stratosphere. Occasionally OClO could also be observed outside the polar vortex, most likely due to export of halogen activated vortex air masses into the ambient stratosphere. BrO could also be detected in winter 1994/95, with the largest slant column amounts (5·1014/cm2) occuring in the polar vortex in mid-winter. Similar abundances of stratospheric BrO were observed at dusk and dawn, for both, air masses inside and outside the vortex. This observation is in reasonable agreement with previous studies on stratospheric BrO (observations and models) of Wahner et al. (1992), Arpag et al. (1994), Krug et al. (1996), and Lary et al. (1996a,b), but partly in disagreement with those of Solomon et al. (1989), Fish et al. (1995), and Sessler et al. (1996).     

The Early 19th Century Climate of the Bahamas and a Comparison with 20th Century Averages

Two weather records kept at Nassau, Bahamas, from 1811 to 1837, and from 1838 to 1845, respectively, are analyzed and compared to 20th century reference periods. The average annual temperature of the period is 24.2°C (±0.65°C), which is 0.4°C lower than 1961–1990 and 0.1°C lower than 1901–1920, the coolest period in the 20th century. Cold periods occurred from 1812–1819 and 1835–1839. A warmer phase prevailed between these two episodes and another warm episode occurred in 1840–1842. Temperature fell after the volcanic eruptions of Tambora (April, 1815) and Coseguina (January, 1835). The maximum cooling after Tambora is estimated at 1.0°C (±0.56°) and after Coseguina is estimated at 0.4°C (±0.56°). The post-Tambora cooling is in line with previous estimates (Robock, personal communication). The 1810s were a period of extreme drought at Nassau and are unequalled in later years. Rainfall frequency was below contemporary (1812–1837) averages from 1812–1820 and 1836–1837 but was above average from 1821–1835. Moist (dry) periods occurred almost simultaneously with warm (cool) periods. The months of October, November, and April show the greatest (negative) deviations in precipitation frequency. Gale force winds were 85% more frequent than from 1901–1960. Much of this increase took place in the months of September through November and represents an increase in tropical cyclone frequency in the Nassau area above that of 1901–1960. Resultant winds show a tendency towards greater northerly components than in the 20th century, especially during the winter months. The increase in northerly wind components, temperatures below the 20th-century average, and reduction in rainfall frequency in the winter half of the year indicates a synoptic situation in which high pressure was more frequent over the southeast North American continent.     

火山活动对气候影响的数值模拟研究

文章系统地总结了火山活动对气候影响的数值模拟研究，主要结论如下:近百年至千年的气候变化和火山活动关系密切，强火山喷发可造成平流层4℃以上的增温和地表年、月平均温度约0.4℃、1℃的下降。地表温度下降的时空分布受许多因素的影响，如火山喷发特征（包括喷发位置、季节、强度等）；海陆分布；火山气溶胶的光学特性；及其由直接辐射强迫引起的经向潜热输送的变化等等。同时还回顾了1991年皮纳图博喷发的有关研究及其对全球气候的可能影响的数值模拟工作。