ENSO与西北太平洋强TC相关关系年代际变化研究

利用美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center,JTWC),中国气象局(China Meteorological Administration,CMA)上海台风所,日本气象厅(Japan Meteorological Agency,JMA)的台风最佳路径资料以及美国NCAR/NCEP再分析资料等,深入研究厄尔尼诺—南方涛动(El Ni1o-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)与西北太平洋强热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC),即1 min最大风速大于等于114 kn相关关系的变化。结果表明,ENSO与热带西北太平洋(Western North Pacific,WNP)强TC频数之间的相关关系存在明显年代际变化。在1960—1971年期间(前一阶段),强TC年频数与Ni1o3. 4(11月—次年1月平均)相关性较弱;而在1983—2014年期间(后一阶段)两者的相关性则为强的正相关。并且强TC的年频数、生命史以及生成位置在后一阶段El Ni1o和La Ni1a年之间的差异相比前一阶段都有明显的增大。进一步分析发现:热带太平洋海温异常(Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly,SSTA)的西移是造成后一阶段Ni1o3. 4指数与强TC年频数相关性提高的关键因素。在后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年,SSTA的西移使得WNP东南象限的相对湿度明显增加(减少),从而有利于(不利于) TC在此象限生成。又因为位于东南象限的TC比较容易发展成强TC,因此导致后一阶段的El Ni1o(La Ni1a)年有更多(更少)的强TC在西北太平洋的东南象限生成。     

北太平洋爆发性气旋的气候特征

利用1968—1987年的海平面天气图资料,分析了爆发性气旋的气候特点。主要内容有：爆发性气旋的发生频率,频率的时间分布,地理分布,大风强度及分布方位、气旋爆发前后的大风、中心气压、加深率等要素的变化。     

近20年来热带印度洋与热带太平洋海气系统相互作用特征的诊断研究

利用1979年1月～1998年12月的月平均海表温度(SST)、向外长波辐射(OLR)和l000hPa纬向风速等NCEP/NCAR再分析资料，对近20年来热带印度洋与太平洋海温异常(SSTA)及相关的环流特征量进行综合分析和研究，发现热带印度洋的内部耦合动力特征模态—偶极子模的强度，存在着年代间的差异，80年代偏弱，90年代偏强。热带印度洋与热带太平洋海气耦合系统之间存在着相互作用，80年代热带印度洋的SSTA主要是对太平洋ENSO的响应，90年代太平洋ENSO的异常发展在一定程度上是受印度洋偶极子模态异常活跃影响的结果。从观测资料诊断分析的角度，找出了90年代后ZC耦合模式对ENSO事件预报失败的可能原因。     

21世纪西北太平洋台风变化预估

对近年多个气候模式考虑不同的人类排放情景作了总结,并对21世纪西北太平洋台风变化作了预估。研究表明,集成多个气候模式考虑人类排放情景,预估到21世纪后期,西北太平洋年总编号台风数可能减少,但强台风数及其降水和风速可能增强。需要强调的是,台风的长期预估是极其困难的,存在极大的不确定性,有待作更深入的研究。     

印度洋海盆增暖及ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋活动的影响

本文主要分析1950～2010年间印度洋海盆增暖和西北太平洋热带气旋(TC)活动的关系, 并与ENSO对西北太平洋TC活动的影响相比较, 结果表明:印度洋海盆异常增暖与西北太平洋地区总TC生成年频数尤其是弱TC相关较好, 印度洋海盆异常增暖, 西北太平洋地区为异常的反气旋, 对流抑制, 降水偏少, 不利于TC的生成, 反之亦然。而ENSO对西北太平洋热带气旋的影响, 主要体现在对强TC的年生成频数的影响, El Ni?o 发展年, 季风槽加深东伸, TC生成位置偏东, 由于TC在海洋上的生命史较长, TC的平均强度偏强, 因而强TC年生成频数偏多;La Ni?a发展年, 季风槽较浅, TC生成位置偏西, TC的平均强度偏弱, 强TC年生成频数偏少。但是ENSO指数与强TC年频数的相关有着年代际的变化, 在1950～1969年和1990～2009年间, ENSO指数和强TC年频数相关很好, 分别为0.532和0.687, 而在1970～1989这二十年间, 两者相关很弱, 只有0.081。     

Diurnal Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Western North Pacific in 2008-2010

Diurnal variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated using the high-resolution Climate Prediction Center's morphing technique (CMORPH) products obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). From January 2008 to October 2010, 72 TCs and 389 TC rainfall days were reported by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center's (JTWC) best-track record. The TC rain rate was partitioned using the Objective Synoptic Analysis Technique (OSAT) and interpolated into Local Standard Time (LST). Harmonic analysis was applied to analyze the diurnal variation of the precipitation. Obvious diurnal cycles were seen in approximately 70% of the TC rainfall days. The harmonic amplitude and phase of the mean TC rainfall rate vary with TC intensity, life stage, season, and spatial distribution. On the basis of intensity, tropical depressions (TDs) exhibit the highest precipitation variation amplitude (PVA), at approximately 30%, while super typhoons (STs) contain the lowest PVA, at less than 22%. On the basis of lifetime stage, the PVA in the decaying stage (more than 37%) is stronger than that in the developing (less than 20%) and sustaining (28%) stages. On the basis of location, the PVA of more than 35% (less than 18%) is the highest (lowest) over the high-latitude oceanic areas (the eastern ocean of the Philippine Islands). In addition, a sub-diurnal cycle of TC rainfall occurs over the high-latitude oceans. On the basis of season, the diurnal variation is more pronounced during summer and winter, at approximately 30% and 32%, respectively, and is weaker in spring and autumn, at approximately 22% and 24%, respectively.     

Measurements of H2S and SO2 over the Atlantic Ocean

Concentrations of sulfur gases H₂S and SO₂ have been measured in the marine atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean at various sites. Mean values of 40 ng H₂S m^-3 STP and 209 ng SO₂ m^-3 STP are the results of the measurements. A diurnal variation of H₂S concentration was detected on the west coast of Ireland with nighttime concentrations of up to 200 ng H₂S m^-3 STP and values below detection limit (15 ng H₂S m^-3 STP) during daytime.     

一个太平洋海盆尺度环流模式及其模拟结果

在中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG)发展的全球气候海洋环流模式(LICOM)的基础上构建了一个太平洋海盆环流模式,并对其模拟结果进行了深入的分析.在模拟中对中尺度示踪物输送采用了两种方案,即传统的水平扩散方案(HOR)和包括涡旋诱导速度的等密度面扩散方案(GM).对这两个试验的气候平衡态结果分析发现,该模式较好地模拟出了太平洋的环流特征,包括副热带大涡、副极地涡旋以及南极绕流(ACC)等.赤道附近的各种流系亦得到了较好的模拟,模拟的150°W赤道潜流的最大流速为40 cm/s,出现在次表层130 m左右,虽然模拟值比基于NCEP资料估计的最大流速80 cm/s小,但与其位置十分相近.两个试验均较好地模拟出了温盐的分布结构,包括北太平洋和南太平洋中层水的形成以及南极底层水的输送等.通过详细分析两个试验结果发现,总的说来在目前模式所采用的参数条件下,GM的结果稍好于HOR的结果.这些模拟结果表明,在LICOM基础上构建的太平洋环流模式从总体上是能再现许多观测特征的,可为今后进一步研究被动示踪物在北太平洋的分布等问题提供一个十分有用的工具.     

中高纬度印度洋海温与西北太平洋夏季台风生成数的相关性

从独立性、显著性和滞后性角度分析西北太平洋夏季台风生成数(WNPTYF)与前期中高纬度印度洋海表温度(SST)的关系, 结果表明:前期中高纬度印度洋SST与WNPTYF相关显著, 且独立于热带东太平洋SST(或ENSO)对WNPTYF影响;中高纬度印度洋SST年际变化对WNPTYF年际变化的指示能力相当或超过热 带东太平洋, 综合两者的影响预测夏季西北太平洋台风生成数的变化有非常重要的现实意义。进一步的分析表明, 中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF影响有明显的滞后性, 前期相关显著而同期相关不显著。这种滞后性意味着其前期中高纬度印度洋SST对WNPTYF的影响并不是通过SST的持续性, 而很可能是通过南半球大气活动的持续性及异常信号在大气中的传播而影响到夏季的环流, 最终影响WNPTYF异常。这种影响机制有待进一步研究。     

热带印度洋和太平洋增暖对东亚夏季风趋势的相反影响

利用多成员集合试验结果,比较分析了热带印度洋和太平洋增暖各自对东亚夏季风趋势变化的影响。试验所用模式是GFDLAM2大气环流模式,增暖是通过在气候平均海洋表面温度（SST）基础上,叠加随时间线性增加的、相当于实际50a左右达到的SST异常来实现的。结果表明：热带印度洋和太平洋共同增暖有使东亚夏季风减弱的趋势。相比较而言,单独印度洋增暖有使东亚夏季风增强、华北降水增多的趋势,而单独太平洋增暖有使东亚夏季风减弱的趋势,即印度洋增暖与太平洋增暖对东亚夏季风存在相反的、竞争性影响。进一步分析指出,热带太平洋特别是热带中东太平洋的增温可能对20世纪70年代末期开始的夏季风年代际减弱有更重要的贡献;在未来热带印度洋和太平洋持续增暖、但增暖强度纬向差异减小的新情况下,东亚夏季风减弱的趋势可能还将持续。     

Decadal Indian Ocean Dipolar Variability and Its Relationship with the Tropical Pacific

A robust decadal Indian Ocean dipolar variability(DIOD) is identified in observations and found to be related to tropical Pacific decadal variability(TPDV).A Pacific Ocean–global atmosphere(POGA) experiment,with fixed radiative forcing,is conducted to evaluate the DIOD variability and its relationship with the TPDV.In this experiment,the sea surface temperature anomalies are restored to observations over the tropical Pacific,but left as interactive with the atmosphere elsewhere.The TPDV-forced DIOD,represented as the ensemble mean of 10 simulations in POGA,accounts for one third of the total variance.The forced DIOD is triggered by anomalous Walker circulation in response to the TPDV and develops following Bjerknes feedback.Thermocline anomalies do not exhibit a propagating signal,indicating an absence of oceanic planetary wave adjustment in the subtropical Indian Ocean.The DIOD–TPDV correlation differs among the 10 simulations,with a low correlation corresponding to a strong internal DIOD independent of the TPDV.The variance of this internal DIOD depends on the background state in the Indian Ocean,modulated by the thermocline depth off Sumatra/Java.     

The Effect of Regional Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling on the Long-term Variability in the Pacific Ocean

A fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model is applied to highlight the mechanism of the long-term variability (including decadal and longer time scales) in the Pacific Ocean. We are interested in the effect of ocean-atmosphere coupling of different regions during these processes. The control run successfully simulates the Pacific long-term variability, whose leading modes are the Pacific (inter) Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Pacific mode (NPM). Furthermore, three numerical experiments are conducted, s...     

影响冬季北太平洋航线设计的天气要素的分析

根据船舶气象导航的原理以及影响航线设计因素的原则，通过对北太平洋冬季爆发性气旋和温带气旋的特征分析以及风场、海浪气候的特点，指出船舶在设计航线时，应根据气候状况、天气形势分析及结合中短期预报设计一条既能充分利用有利的风、浪等因素又能避开大风浪等灾害性天气以达到安全、经济的目的。     

Origin of calcium in aerosols over the western North Pacific

Weekly aerosol samples were collected from March 1981 to June 1983 at the six stations in the western North Pacific region and analyzed for Ca and Na. By coupling data with those previously reported for Al (Tsunogai et al., 1985), the following results and conclusion have been obtained. There was a positive correlation between the atmospheric concentration of Al and the concentration of nonsea salt Ca (nssCa). The nssCa/Al ratios from the six stations, however, considerably varied (from 0.84±0.36 to 3.00±1.91), and the ratios were usally larger than those of the crustal average or of usual soil in Japan. The Ca/Al ratios of Asian desert soil and loess vary from 0.52 to 1.29, which are similar to the nssCa/Al ratios of aerosols in the surface air over the western North Pacific region except at Onna, Okinawa. The exception may be due to a local effect of coral. These results suggest that a large part of nonsea salt Ca in the surface air over the western North Pacific is derived from arid regions in Asia and that the nssCa/Al ratio in aerosol varies with that of the source material.     

西太平洋副高脊线北抬至25°N的OLR特征及诊断分析

取西太平洋副热带高压脊线北抬至 2 5°N日期和射出长波辐射 (OLR)月平均资料为素材 ,确定副高脊线北抬至 2 5°N指数和异常年例 ,揭示异常年例的OLR特征 ,进行诊断判据分析 ;主要结果有 :(1 ) 6月东亚中低纬地区的OLR距平场由中纬向低纬若呈偏低 (高 )、偏高 (低 )、偏低 (高 )分布时 ,副高脊线北抬至 2 5°N易于偏早 (迟 ) ;(2 )在分析诊断判据时 ,上一年 1 1月侧重南半球澳大利亚地区OLR所显示的信息 ;而当年三月侧重西太平洋辐合区OLR所显示的信息。     

热带太平洋环流季节变化的数值模拟

在观测到的海表风应力和热量及淡水通量驱动下，用大气物理研究所发展的高分辨率自由表面热带太平洋环流模式对热带太平洋环流季节变化进行了数值模拟。对模拟得到的热带太平洋海面起伏、温度场和流场等季节变化分析、比较表明，模式成功地模拟了观测到的环流季节变化基本特征。其中，海面起伏中西北太平洋副热带反气旋环流在冬季最强，赤道槽在冬季和早春季强，而赤道脊和北赤道逆流槽则在秋季强；北赤道逆流在秋季强而春季弱，150°W附近区域赤道表层洋流流向在4至7月逆转；赤道东太平洋地区海表温度场春季增暖和秋冷却；以及次表层赤道斜温层     

A Study of Linke Turbidity Factor over Qena / Egypt

Data on instantaneous atmospheric Linke turbidity factor TL (m) are reported for clear days at Qena/Egypt in the period from June 1992 to May 1993.TL(m) is determined using the values of irradiance of direct solar radiation (I),which are calculated from global (G) and diffuse (D) - solar radiation measurements.Monthly and seasonally variations of both diurnal and daily average values of TL (m) increases steadily in the direction of sunset in the months from June to December 1992 as well as Summer and Autumn seasons,while it falls generally in this direction for the months from January to March and Winter season.In April and May,TL (m) fluctuates obviously through the day hours,it is also shown that the average values of TL(m) are particularly large during Summer months compared to other months of the year.This behavior of TL(m) is discussed in view of the variations of some weather elements,which affect the content of water vapor and dust particle in the atmosphere of the study region.It seems t be of s     

Temporal and spatial variations of marine aerosols over the Atlantic Ocean

Aerosol samples, collected daily were analyzed with electron microscopy for particle concentration and size distribution. The chemical compositions of individual particles were determined with X-ray energy spectrometry and specific morphological tests. The results demonstrated clear and significant dependencies of aerosol properties on air trajectories computed from a backtrack model. Air parcels, such as American air pollution and Sahara dust, were identified. Their physical mixing and chemical reactions with marine aerosols as well as aerosol wet deposition are discussed.     

基于CMIP5资料的热带太平洋和印度洋海温变化与降水变化的关系及其成因分析

利用第五次耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,简称CMIP5)月平均资料,从季节变化角度,对热带太平洋、印度洋海温变化与降水变化的关系及其成因进行了初步分析。20个模式集合平均结果表明:在全球增暖背景下,热带太平洋年平均的海温变化与降水变化符合"warmer-get-wetter"型特征,而季节平均与年平均存在明显的差异;冬季和春季,海温增暖最大区和降水增加区之间存在东西向和南北向的位置偏差;夏季和秋季,二者只存在明显的南北位置偏差,且与冬季和春季的情况相反。热带印度洋的冬季和春季海温变化与降水变化也存在位置偏差。两个热带大洋季节平均的降水变化均是"warmer-get-wetter"和"wet-get-wetter"两个机制共同作用的结果。     

Scavenging of Insoluble Particles from the Marine Atmosphere over the Sub-Arctic North Pacific

Direct deposition measurements ofatmospheric insoluble particles over the sub-ArcticNorth Pacific indicate that the number of particles(6.4 ± 3.8) × 10⁴ cm^-2 per rain eventwas fairly constant compared with the large variationof the precipitation rate, which ranged from 0.16 to18 mm per event for 43 rain days during the period ofMarch–September (total 109 days) 1996. Thissuggests that insoluble particles larger than 0.4 min area equivalent diameter are primarilyremoved at the margin of the rainfall area by wetscavenging processes below clouds in the marineatmosphere in sub-Arctic regions. The frequency ofrain events controls the fate of the troposphericaerosols larger than sub-micrometer in diameter. Reflecting the seasonal long-range transport of Asiandust, mineral particles were dominant as insolubleparticles in the spring rains, but carbonaceousparticles were dominant in the summer rains. Theatmospheric deposition of insoluble particles could besignificant as a source of sediment particles over thesub-Arctic North Pacific.