Hazard assessment at volcanic fields: the Campi Flegrei case history

Volcanological analysis of the 10 000 yr –1538 explosive activity at Campi Flegrei shows that the most common explosive eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of flow or surge deposits, originating from the interaction between magma and shallow and/or sea water. The minimum volumes of pyroclastic products range between 0.04 and 0.7 km³; the proximal areas covered by these products range from 3–4 to 40–50 km². The pyroclastic flow and surge deposits occurring inside the caldera have been strongly controlled by pre-existent morphology; because of this, the area of present Napoli city was blanketed by approximately 5 m of pyroclastic deposits, during the last 5000 yr.Previous analysis suggests that the presence of even very low topographic obstacles may influence pyroclastic density current run out such that future eruptive deposits would mainly be confined inside the caldera rim. We suggest that a future eruption at Campi Flegrei would not seriously involve the urbanized area of Napoli city located on the hills. On the contrary, the plains located on the eastern side of the caldera (Fuorigrotta, Bagnoli) would be the most damaged area.     

Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

Tephra fallout associated with renewal of volcanism at the Campi Flegrei caldera is a serious threat to the Neapolitan area. In order to assess the hazards related with tephra loading, we have considered three different eruption scenarios representative of past activity: a high-magnitude event similar to the 4.1 ka Agnano-Monte Spina eruption, a medium-magnitude event, similar to the ∼3.8 ka Astroni 6 eruption, and a low-magnitude event similar to the Averno 2 eruption. The fallout deposits were reconstructed using the HAZMAP computational model, which is based on a semi-analytical solution of the two-dimensional advection–diffusion–sedimentation equation for volcanic tephra. The input parameters into the model, such as total erupted mass, eruption column height, and bulk grain-size and components distribution, were obtained by best-fitting field data. We carried out tens of thousands simulations using a statistical set of wind profiles, obtained from NOAA re-analysis. Probability maps, relative to the considered scenarios, were constructed for several tephra loads, such as 200, 300 and 400 kg/m². These provide a hazard assessment for roof collapses due to tephra loading that can be used for risk mitigation plans in the area.     

Averno tuff ring in Campi Flegrei (south Italy)

The tuff ring of Averno (3700 years BP) is a wide maar-type, lake-filled volcano which formed during one of the most recent explosive eruptions inside the Campi Flegrei caldera.The eruptive products consist of (a) a basal coarse unit, intercalated ballistic fallout breccia, subplinian pumice deposits and pyroclastic surge bedsets and (b) an upper fine-grained, stratified, pyroclastic surge sequence.During the deposition of the lower unit both purely magmatic (lapilli breccia) and hydromagmatic episodes (wavy and planar bedded, fine ash pyroclastic surge bedsets) coexisted. The hydromagmatic deposits exhibit both erosive and depositional features. The upper unit mostly comprises fine grained, wet pyroclastic surge deposits. The pyroclastic surges were controlled by a highly irregular pre-existing topography, produced by volcano-tectonic dislocation of older tuff rings and cones.Both the upper and lower units show decreasing depletion of fines with increasing distance from the vent. The ballistic fallout layers, however, exhibit only a weak increase in fines with distance from the vent, in spite of marked fining of the lapilli and blocks. The deposits consist dominantly of moderately to highly vesicular juvenile material, generated by primary magmatic volatile driven fragmentation followed by episodes of near-surface magma-water interaction.The evolution of the eruption toward increased fragmentation and a more hydromagmatic character may reflect that the progressive depletion in magmatic volatiles and a decrease in conduit pressure during the last stage of the eruption, possibly associated with a widening of the vent at sea level.     

Seismic images and rock properties of the very shallow structure of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

In September 2001, an extensive active-seismic investigation (Serapis experiment) was carried out in the Gulfs of Naples and Pozzuoli, with the aim of investigating and reconstructing the shallow crustal structure of the Campi Flegrei caldera, and possibly identifying its feeding system at depth. The present study provides a joint analysis of the very shallow seismic reflection data and tomographic images based on the Serapis dataset. This is achieved by reflection seismic sections obtained by the 3D data gathering and through refined P-velocity images of the shallowest layer of Pozzuoli Gulf (z < 1,000 m). From the refined Vp model, the overall picture of the velocity distribution confirms the presence of a complex arc-shaped anomaly that borders the bay offshore. The deeper part of the anomaly (beneath 700 m, with Vp > 3,500 m/s) correlates with units made up of agglomerate tuffs and interbedded lava, which form the southern edge of the caldera, which was probably formed following the two large ignimbritic eruptions that marked the evolutionary history of the area under study. The upper part of the anomaly that tends to split into two parallel arcs is correlated with dikes, volcanic mounds and hydrothermal alteration zones noted in previous shallow reflection seismic analyses. The depth of the transition between the upper and lower parts of the anomaly is characterized by an abrupt Vp increase on the one-dimensional (1D) profiles extracted from the 3D tomographic model and by the presence of a strong reflector located at about 0.6/0.7 s Two Way Time (TWT) on Common Mid Point gathers. The move-out velocity analysis and stack of the P–P and P–S reflections at the layer bottom allowed to estimate relatively high Vp/Vs values (3.7 ± 0.9). This hypothesis has been tested by a theoretical rock physical modeling of the Vp/Vs ratio as a function of porosity suggesting that the shallow layer is likely formed by incoherent, water saturated, volcanic and marine sediments that filled Pozzuoli Bay during the post-caldera activity.     

Radon variation in groundwaters in the Campi Flegrei Caldera (southern Italy) during and after the 1982–1984 bradyseismic crisis

Groundwater Rn concentration has been monitored at several sites in the Campi Flegrei Caldera since the time of the last episode of bradyseismic activity. The results concerning the period 1983–88 indicate that the Rn concentration is spatially variable due to the different chemico-physical characteristics of the waters or structural features. Rn concentration is generally influenced by the long-term changes of meteorological factors. Rainfalls appear to affect the Rn content of the most superficial aquifers. Several short-term spike-like Rn anomalies have been detected both during and after the period of the bradyseismic crisis. They do not show correlation with temporal changes of the pH and/or temperature of waters. A systematic correlation between Rn anomalies and episodic strong rainfall events is also absent. Furthermore, a clear relationship between Rn spikes and both uplift velocity changes and seismic activity has not been found.The overall evidence makes it very difficult to understand the temporal changes of groundwater Rn concentration that have occurred during and after the 1982–84 bradyseismic crisis. Nevertheless, a clear causal relationship between Rn concentration and the dynamics of the bradyseism is observed in some monitored sites. Its appearance may have been favoured by the low Rn concentration in the groundwaters during periods of quiescent activity.     

Simultaneous inversion of deformation and gravity changes in a horizontally layered half-space: Evidences for magma intrusion during the 1982–1984 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)

A very large uplift (about 1.8 m) occurred in the period 1982–1984 at Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, without culminating in an eruption. A still-standing controversy accompanies the interpretation of deformation and gravity changes recorded during the unrest, which were interpreted to result from the sub-surface magmatic reservoir by some authors and from the hydrothermal system or hybrid sources by others. Here for the first time we take into account crustal layering while inverting leveling, EDM, and gravity data using uniformly-pressurized sources, namely small vertical spheroids and finite horizontal penny-shaped sources. The weight of EDM data in the misfit function is chosen from a trade-off curve in order to balance the compromise between fitting the leveling and the EDM data well. Models using a homogeneous medium cannot give a good simultaneous fit to leveling and EDM deformation data of the 1982–1984 unrest, whereas incorporating a layered structure (determined from seismically derived estimates of the P wave speed for the crust, and not adjusted to improve the fit in any of the inversions) allows a significantly better fit. Also, layering affects the sub-surface mass redistribution effects on gravity changes, and we show that the retrieved intrusion density is in full agreement with densities for highly evolved magmas expected at the Campi Flegrei caldera for depths of 3 to 4 km, ruling out hydrothermal fluids as the primary cause of the 1982–1984 unrest. The source of the 1982–1984 CF unrest was probably a shallow (about 3-km deep) penny-shaped magma intrusion fed by a deeper magma chamber; source overpressure was few MPa.     

Hydrothermal origin for sustained Long-Period (LP) activity at Campi Flegrei Volcanic Complex,Italy

We present a detailed analysis of the source properties of Long-Period (LP) signals recorded at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy) during the last (2005–2006) mini-uplift episode. Moment Tensor inversion via full-waveform modelling of broad-band seismograms indicates a crack-like source with a significant volumetric component. From auto-regressive modelling of the signal's tail we evaluate the dominant frequency and the attenuation factor of the oscillating source. Considering the acoustic properties of a fluid-filled crack, these values are consistent with the resonant oscillations of a crack filled by a water–gas mixture at variable gas–volume fraction. For these fluids, the crack size would be on the order of 40–420 m, a size range which is consistent with the spatial spreading of LP hypocenters. Analysis of temporally-correlated time series of seismological and geochemical data indicates that climaxing of LP activity was preceded by swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) events and rapidly followed by a consistent increase of both thermal emissions and gas fluxes recorded at the surface (1 month — 2/3 days, respectively). Following these observations, we propose a conceptual model where VT activity increases permeability of the medium, thus favouring fluid mobility. As a consequence, the hydrothermal system experiences pressure perturbations able to trigger its resonant, LP oscillations.     

Magma ascent and eruptive processes from textural and compositional features of Monte Nuovo pyroclastic products, Campi Flegrei, Italy

Geochemical and textural studies were carried out on alkaline products of the AD 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption. Due to the integration of the volcanological study with eyewitness reports, the dynamics and timing of each phase of the eruption and the volume of emitted magmas are known in detail. On this basis, unique in Campi Flegrei, the relations between magma chamber mechanisms, eruptive styles, magma ascent dynamics and volatile exsolution processes have been explored. Glass and phenocryst compositions indicate that the erupted magma has a homogeneous phono-trachytic composition. Textures and compositions of phenocrysts indicate that they crystallised at equilibrium with the melt in the magma chamber, likely as a mushy boundary layer along the chamber wall, where the temperature was below the liquidus temperature of the crystal free-chamber core. The estimated crystallisation temperature is 850±40°C. The magma phase relations in Petrogenys Residua System suggest that phenocryst crystallisation occurred at between 100 and 200 MPa, corresponding to depths ranging from 3 to 8 km. The microlite composition and their close genetic relations with vesicles indicate that groundmass crystallisation occurred during the eruption as a consequence of magma degassing and vesiculation induced by decompression during its ascent toward the surface. Crystal size distributions reveal that microlites grew in two stages of undercooling that we define as: (1) magma migration onset upward from the chamber and (2) magma rising through the conduit to the surface, possibly lasting tens of days and few days, respectively. These results provide information on the physical conditions that characterise pre- and syn-eruptive processes, which may be useful in order to define eruptive scenarios and to evaluate short-term precursors. Furthermore, the collected data provide for the first time information on degassing-induced crystallisation during the eruption of a highly evolved alkaline magma.Editorial responsibility: M. Carroll     

Timing of magma extraction during the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption (Campi Flegrei Caldera)

A core drilled within the northern part of the city of Napoli has offered the unique opportunity to observe in one single sequence the superposition of the four pyroclastic flow units emplaced during the Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) eruption. Such a stratigraphic succession has never been encountered before in natural or in man made exposures. Therefore the CI sequence was reconstructed only on the basis of stratigraphic correlations and compositional data (in literature). The occurrence of four superposed CI flows, together with all the data available (in literature) allowed us to better constrain the chemical stratigraphy of the deposit and the compositional structure of the CI magma chamber. The CI magma chamber includes two cogenetic magma layers, separated by a compositional gap. The upper magma layer was contaminated by interaction with radiogenic fluids. The two magma layers were extruded either individually or simultaneously during the course of the eruption. In the latter case they produced a hybrid magma. But no evidence of input of new geochemically and isotopically distinct magma batches just prior or during the eruption has been found. Comparison with the exposed CI deposits has permitted reconstruction of variable eruption phases and related magma withdrawal and caldera collapse episodes. The eruption was likely to have began with phreatomagmatic explosions followed by the formation of a sustained plinian eruption column fed by the simultaneous extraction from both magma layers. Towards the end of this phase the upward migration of the fragmentation surface and the decrease in magma eruption rate and/or activation of fractures formed an unstable pulsating column that was fed only by the most-evolved magma layer. This plinian phase was followed by the collapse of the eruption column and the beginning of caldera formation. At this stage expanded pyroclastic flows fed by the upper magma layer in the chamber generated. During the following major caldera collapse episode, the maximum mass discharge rate was reached and both magma layers were tapped, generating expanded pyroclastic flows. Towards the end of the eruption, only the deeper and less differentiated magma layer was tapped producing more concentrated pyroclastic flows that traveled short distances.     

Magma chamber evolution prior to the Campanian Ignimbrite and Neapolitan Yellow Tuff eruptions (Campi Flegrei,Italy)

The Campi Flegrei (Campanian Region, Italy) experienced two cataclysmic caldera-forming eruptions which produced the Campanian Ignimbrite (39 ka, CI) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (15 ka, NYT). We studied the minor eruptions before both these large events to understand magma chamber evolution leading towards such catastrophic eruptions. Major, trace element, and Sr and Nd isotope compositions of pre-Campanian Ignimbrite and pre-Neapolitan Yellow Tuff products define distinct geochemical groups, which are here interpreted as distinct magma batches. These batches do not show any transitional trend towards the CI and NYT eruptions. The CI and NYT systems are decoupled geochemically and isotopically. At least one of the pre-CI and one of the pre-NYT erupted magma batches qualifies as mixing endmembers for the large CI and NYT eruptions, and thus, must have been stored in reservoirs for some time to remain available for the CI and NYT eruptions. The least evolved, isotopically distinct magma compositions that are typical of the last phases of the NYT and CI eruptions did not occur before caldera-forming events. Based on the new data, we propose the following scenario: Multiple magma chambers with distinct compositions existed below the Campi Flegrei before the CI and NYT eruptions and remained generally separated for some time unless new magma was recharged. In each case, one of the residing magma reservoirs was recharged by a new large-volume magma input of intermediate composition from a deeper differentiating magma reservoir. This may have triggered the coalescence of the previously separated reservoirs into one large chamber which fed the cataclysmic caldera-forming eruption. Large magma chambers in the Campi Flegrei may therefore be ephemeral features, interrupted by periods of evolution in individual, separated magma reservoirs.     

Vent area and depositional mechanisms of the Upper Member of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (Campi Flegrei, Italy): new insights from directional fabric through image analysis

In order to provide new information about the source area and depositional mechanisms of the Upper Member of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (NYT), a prominent pyroclastic deposit of the Campi Flegrei Volcanic District (southern Italy), statistics on directional fabric, by means of computer-assisted image analysis on 32 rock samples, were compiled. Seventeen samples were collected along vertical direction on two selected exposures and fifteen were taken from outcrops widely distributed all around the Campi Flegrei Volcanic District. Fabric measurements within the investigated successions reveal a vertically homogeneous direction of the mean particle iso-orientation, with considerable variability in the strength of particle iso-orientation even at cm-scale. The existence of particle iso-orientation can be related to continuous sedimentation from a concentrated bedload region beneath suspension currents, producing massive or inversely graded beds by traction carpet sedimentation. The considerable vertical variability in the strength of iso-orientation is the result of very unstable flow regimes, up to the extreme condition of discrete depositional events, with a variable combination of traction carpet and/or direct suspension sedimentation. The vertical homogeneity in the mean orientation values, found in the investigated sections, may derive from the sequential deposition of laminae to thin beds, whose relatively flat upper surfaces were unable to significantly deflect the depositional system of the following currents. According to the observed homogeneous mean particle orientation values along the investigated vertical profiles, samples collected through areal distribution are considered representative of the local paleo-flow directions of the whole deposit. The mean directions of the samples collected areally show two different coherent patterns which point to the existence of two different source areas. The first, which includes all samples from the northern outcrops, appears to converge in a narrow area about 2 km NE of the town of Pozzuoli, largely in coincidence with the inferred area on the basis of the pumice fall distribution. The second, which includes samples from Capo Miseno and Posillipo areas, points to the central part of the Pozzuoli Bay, about 4 km offshore the town of Pozzuoli.     

BET_VH: exploring the influence of natural uncertainties on long-term hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei (Italy)

In this paper, we explore the effects of the intrinsic uncertainties upon long-term volcanic hazard by analyzing tephra fall hazard at Campi Flegrei, Italy, using the BET_VH model described in Marzocchi et al. (Bull Volcanol, 2010). The results obtained show that volcanic hazard based on the weighted average of all possible eruptive settings (i.e. size classes and vent locations) is significantly different from an analysis based on a single reference setting, as commonly used in volcanic hazard practice. The long-term hazard map for tephra fall at Campi Flegrei obtained here accounts for a wide spectrum of uncertainties which are usually neglected, largely reducing the bias intrinsically introduced by the choice of a specific reference setting. We formally develop and apply a general method to recursively integrate simulations from different models which have different characteristics in terms of spatial coverage, resolution and physical details. This outcome of simulations will be eventually merged with field data through the use of the BET_VH model.     

Chemical and isotopic signatures of the basement rocks from the Campi Flegrei geothermal field (Naples, southern Italy): inferences about the origin and evolution of its hydrothermal fluids

The Campi Flegrei (Naples, Campanian Plain, southern Italy) geothermal system is hosted by Quaternary volcanic rocks erupted before, during and after the formation of the caldera that represents one of the major structural features in the Neapolitan area. The volcanic products rest on a Mesozoic carbonate basement, cropping out north, east and south of the area. Chemical (major, minor and trace elements) and stable isotope (C, H, O) analyses were conducted on drill-core samples recovered from geothermal wells MF-1, MF-5, SV-1 and SV-3, at depths of ˜ 1100 to 2900 m. The study was complemented by petrographic and SEM examination of thin sections. The water which feeds the system is both marine and meteoric in origin. Mineral zonation typical of a high-temperature geothermal system exists in all the geothermal wells; measured temperatures in wells are as high as ˜ 400 °C. The chemical composition of the waters suggests the existence of two reservoirs: a shallow reservoir (depth < 2000 m) fed by seawater that boiled at 320 °C and became progressively diluted by steam-heated local meteoric water during its ascent; and a deeper reservoir (depth > 2000 m) of hypersaline water. The drill-cores are mainly hydrothermally altered volcanics of trachy-latitic affinity, but some altered pelites and limestones are also present. Published Na, Mg and K concentrations of selected geothermal waters indicate that the hydrothermal fluids are in equilibrium with their host rocks, with respect to K-feldspar, albite, sericite and chlorite. The measured δ¹⁸O_(SMOW) values of rocks range from +4.3 to + 16.5%. The measured δD_(SMOW) values range from − 79 to − 46%. The calculated isotopic composition of the fluids at equilibrium with the samples vary from + 1 to + 8.3%. δ¹⁸O and from − 52 to + 1%. δD. The estimated isotopic composition of the waters at equilibrium with the studied samples confirmed the existence of two distinct fluid types circulating in the geothermal system. The shallower has a marine water signature, while the deeper water has a signature consistent both with magmatic and meteoric origins. In the latter case, the recharge of this aquifer likely occurs at the outcrop of the Mesozoic Limestones surrounding the Campanian Plain; after infiltration, the water percolates through evaporitic layers, becoming hypersaline and D-depleted.     

Stress pattern at Campi Flegrei from focal mechanisms of the 1982–1984 earthquakes (southern Italy)

Campi Flegrei is a Holocene volcanic area in the Campanian Plain (Southern Italy) within the Apennine Chain, a neogenic thrust belt built up since the Middle Miocene. The volcanic complex consists of a c. 12-km-diameter caldera containing several monogenetic volcanoes, the youngest of which (Monte Nuovo) erupted in 1538. Since at least Roman times, the area has also been affected by slow vertical movements (bradiseismic activity). Between 1982 and 1985, this slow motion was interrupted by a period of more rapid displacement which caused a maximum uplift of 180 cm in the town of Pozzuoli. To model the local stress field associated with the uplift, the Angelier inversion technique has been applied using the focal mechanisms of forty-nine earthquakes which occurred between April 1982 and December 1984. The results show that doming coupled with a regional extensional strain can account for the seismic phenomena that affected the area.     

Understanding the Seismic Velocity Structure of Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy): From the Laboratory to the Field Scale

We report laboratory measurements of P- and S-wave velocities on samples of tuff from Campi Flegrei (Italy), and a new tomographic velocity map of the Campi Flegrei caldera. Laboratory measurements were made in a hydrostatic pressure vessel during both increasing and decreasing effective pressure cycles. Selected samples were also thermally stressed at temperatures up to 600°C to induce thermal crack damage. Acoustic emission output was recorded throughout each thermal stressing experiment, and velocities were measured after thermal stressing. Laboratory P- and S-wave velocities are initially low for the tuff, which has an initial porosity of ~45%, but both increase by between 25 and 50% over the effective pressure range of 5 to 80 MPa, corresponding to a decrease of porosity of ~70%. Marked velocity hysteresis, due to inelastic damage processes, is also observed in samples subjected to a pressurization-depressurization cycle. Tomographic seismic velocity distributions obtained from field recordings are in general agreement with the laboratory measurements. Integration of the laboratory ultrasonic and seismic tomography data indicates that the tuffs of the Campi Flegrei caldera can be water or gas saturated, and shows that inelastic pore collapse and cracking produced by mechanical and thermal stress can significantly change the velocity properties of Campi Flegrei tuffs at depth. These changes need to be taken into account in accurately interpreting the crustal structure from tomographic data.     

A reappraisal of seismic Q evaluated in Campi Flegrei caldera. Receipt for the application to risk analysis

The civil defense of Italy and the European community have planned to reformulate the volcanic risk in several volcanic areas of Italy, among which Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei, by taking into account the possible occurrence of damaging pre- or syn-eruptive seismic events. Necessary to achieve this goal is the detailed knowledge of the local attenuation–distance relations. In the present note, we make a survey of the estimates of seismic quality factor (the inverse is proportional to the attenuation coefficient with distance) reported in literature for the area of Campi Flegrei where many, but sometimes contradictory results have been published on this topic. We try to review these results in order to give indications for their correct use when calculating the attenuation laws for this area.     

Structure and evolution of the Bay of Pozzuoli (Italy) using marine seismic reflection data: implications for collapse of the Campi Flegrei caldera

Digital marine seismic reflection data acquired in 1973 in the Bay of Pozzuoli, and recently reprocessed, were used to study the volcanological evolution of the marine sector of Campi Flegrei Caldera during the last 37 ka. In order to gain more information, interpretation also involved estimation of the "pseudo-velocity" and the "pseudo-density" from the resistivity logs of two onshore deep exploration wells. The main results are: (1) discovery of ancient pre-18 ka and post-37 ka submarine and mainly effusive volcanic activity, along coeval emission centers located at the edges of Campi Flegrei Caldera; (2) confirmation that the caldera collapse in the marine sector of Campi Flegrei seems strongly controlled by regional NE–SW and NW–SE structural discontinuities; (3) the finding of at least two episodes of collapse in the bay; and (4) identification of a post-18 ka volcanic deflation phase that has caused about 150–200 m of subsidence in the central sector of the Bay of Pozzuoli in the last 18 ka.Editorial responsibilty: T. Druitt     

Zonation of the main volcanic hazards (lava flows and ash fall) in Tenerife, Canary Islands. A proposal for a surveillance network

The island of Tenerife is volcanically complex, and its eruptive history predominantly reflects the processes and products of two different eruptive styles: (1) non-explosive effusions of basaltic lavas from fissure vents mostly aligned along two ridges; and (2) less frequent but explosive salic eruptions from central vents associated with the Las Cañadas volcanic edifice and associated summit caldera. We have taken into account this fundamental distinction to develop a volcanic-hazards zonation (for lava flows and ash fall only) that includes: definition of the principal hazards; identification of the areas that have higher probability of containing emission centres; and numerical modelling of the vulnerable areas to be affected by volcanic hazards. Not only does the volcanic-hazards zonation map provide emergency-management officials with an updated assessment of the volcanic hazards, but it also represents a starting point for the preparation of a volcanic risk map for Tenerife. Finally, the hazards-zonation map also furnishes the basis for the design of a proposed volcano surveillance network.