An improved region–time–length algorithm applied to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan earthquake

By means of the region–time–length (RTL) algorithm, which is widely used for investigating the precursory seismicity changes in China, Italy, Japan, Russia and Turkey, we examine the precursory seismic activity occurred prior to the 1999, M _w = 7.6, Chi-Chi earthquake around its epicentre. Based on our calculation of the RTL values, the epicentral area has been found to strongly exhibit the signature of anomalous activity, associated with the seismic quiescence and activation, before the main shock. Also proposed in this study is a helpful method for determining two important parameters used in the RTL analysis, the characteristic time and distance. Such method will largely reduce the ambiguity in the original RTL algorithm.     

Precursory seismic quiescence in the Mudurnu Valley, North Anatolian fault zone, Turkey

The seismicity rate in the Mudurnu Valley of Turkey was studied using an earthquake catalogue that reports events homogeneously down to magnitude 2.3 for the years 1985–1989, and covers the area between latitudes 40.2° and 41.0°N, and longitudes 30.0° and 31.5°E. During this period the only two main shocks, M = 4.0 and M = 4.3, occurred on 1988 September 6 and 1988 December 9 within about 30km of each other. A highly significant seismic quiescence is evident in the area surrounding these main shocks, while the seismicity rate in the rest of the area covered by the catalogue remains constant. the quiescence becomes more pronounced the smaller the area around the main shocks that is studied. the smallest areas that can be studied contain about 60 earthquakes and have dimensions of approximately 25km on each side. the decreases in seismicity rates are 50–80 per cent depending on the volume and period used for defining the quiescence. the quiescence started in 1988 January and lasted about seven months, with approximately 4.5 months of normal activity separating it from the main shock of December. the precursor time of 12 months for an M = 4.3 main shock is similar to those observed in California. It is concluded that it is possible to resolve precursory quiescence before moderate and large earthquakes in the Mudurnu area with the existing seismograph network.     

The 2003 Mw 7.2 Fiordland subduction earthquake, New Zealand: aftershock distribution, main shock fault plane and static stress changes on the overlying Alpine Fault

The 2003 August 21 Fiordland earthquake ( M _L7.0, M _W7.2) was the largest earthquake to occur in New Zealand for 35 yr and the fifth of M6+ associated with shallow subduction in Fiordland in the last 15 yr. The aftershocks are diffuse and do not distinguish between the two possible main shock fault planes implied by the Harvard CMT solution, one corresponding to subduction interface thrusting and the other corresponding to steeply seaward dipping thrusting. The distinction is important for calculating the induced stress changes on the overlying Alpine Fault which has a history of very large earthquakes, the last possibly in 1717. We have relocated the aftershocks, using data from temporary seismographs in the epicentral region and the double difference technique. We then use the correlation between aftershock hypocentres and regions of positive changes in Coulomb Failure Stress (CFS) due to various candidate main shock fault planes to argue for concentrated slip on the shallow landward dipping subduction interface. Average changes in CFS on the offshore segments of the Alpine Fault are then negative, retarding any future large events. In our models the change in CFS is evaluated on faults of optimal orientation in the regional stress field as determined by inversion of P -wave polarities.     

基于卫星热红外辐射信息的新疆强震震例分析

利用NOAA-14极轨气象卫星红外波段的探测数据,对遥感数据进行多种处理,采用影像目视解释和提取地表辐射亮温值的方法,对新疆的三次强震进行分析,结果发现在地震前都出现了热红外异常,这为地震监测提供了一个重要信息。     

Quantitative mapping of a precursory seismic quiescence to the Izu–Oshima 1990 (M6.5) earthquake, Japan

A highly significant seismic quiescence with a standard deviate Z = 10.1. corresponding to a 99 per cent confidence level, lasted from 1987.7 up to the 1990 February 20 Izu-Oshima M 6.5 earthquake. The quiescent volume had dimensions of 30 km N-S and 10 km E-W and was centred below 14 km depth. Within the recently upgraded seismograph network of the Earthquake Research Institute (ERI), this main shock was the only one with a magnitude M > 5.8 in the upper 30 km of the crust for which the precursory quiescence hypothesis could be tested. Within a radius of 50 km, and during the observation period (1983.5–1995.9), there were no other 1.5 yr or longer periods of quiescence that were rated Z > 6.5 in the declustered earthquake catalogue, except one that was associated with volcanic activity. The total space-time covered by alarms, including the volcanic one, was less than 1 per cent at the Z = 6.5 level. The rarity of highly significant episodes of quiescence, and the correlation in space and time suggest that a precursory seismic quiescence started 2.5 yr before the Izu-Oshima 1990 earthquake in its source volume and to the north of it, and that it can be recognized with an alarm level of Z = 6.0, generating no false alarms. During the 1.5 yr quiescence window, only 10 earthquakes occurred in the quiet volume, whereas 50 events were expected based on the rate seen at other times. In randomly selected volumes containing 50, 100 and 200 events, the anomaly scored Z = 6.1 to 10.1. On the basis of the data from May 1983 to 1995, there is no highly significant quiescence currently present in the Izu-Oshima area.     

Seismic quiescence before the M 7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia

A detailed analysis of the 35  yr of seismicity between 1962 and 1997 using a gridding technique shows that the M 7, Spitak earthquake of 1988 December 7 was preceded by a quiescence anomaly that started at approximately 1984±0.5, and lasted about 5±0.5  yr, up to the main shock. This quiescence anomaly had a radius of about 20±3  km, estimated from circular areas with 75 per cent rate decrease, centred at the point of maximum significance of the anomaly. The quiescence was clearly present in the aftershock volume during the 5  yr before the 1988 main shock, but its statistically strongest expression was located 30  km NW of the epicentre. This anomaly fulfills the association rules between precursory quiescence anomalies and main shocks, even for a tight definition, and is therefore proposed as a case of precursory quiescence. The largest value of the standard deviate Z , found by random selection of samples by gridding, was Z =14 for a time window of T _w=3  yr, using a sample size of N =300 events. This makes this anomaly the strongest observed so far, and it is the first documented in an environment of continental collision. There are no false alarms exceeding in significance the precursor. The Armenian earthquake catalogue used for this study had 4600 earthquakes with M ≥ M _min=2.2 in the area bounded by 39.5° to 42°N/42.5° to 47°E. From the point of view of homogeneous reporting this is the best catalogue we have analysed so far. The limits of the data used and the density of the grid are dictated by the data, and have no influence on the results. The choice of free parameters does not influence the results significantly within the following limits: 100≤ N ≤500, 2≤ T _w≤7, 2.2≤ M _min≤2.8.     

地震灾害情景下产业空间网络风险评估——以日本丰田汽车为例

以日本东南海地震为情景,以日本丰田汽车及其关联企业为例,基于工厂个体数据及其部件供应的拓扑和空间网络,模拟灾害风险在产业网络中扩散转移过程,建立直接损失与间接功能损失的评估模型,为产业空间网络风险评估提供新的思路和方法借鉴。结果表明：在东南海地震情景下,丰田汽车约48.1%的工厂将直接受损,其中生产设施损失约5587亿日元,厂房建筑损失约1980亿日元。由于关键工厂受损,将间接导致整个产业网络中断。在最长37日恢复情景下,将造成约9230亿日元的间接功能损失。地震灾害对丰田汽车产业网络影响显著,有必要采取有效措施进行减灾降险。     

海南岛东寨港红树林区岩芯地球化学特征及其古地震指示

地震对海岸带地貌与沉积有明显影响,1605年海南岛琼山地震造成东寨港地区发生严重陷落事件。对采自东寨港红树林区258 cm柱状岩芯YBL孔进行了粒度和元素地球化学分析,发现地球化学元素含量在125 cm附近有明显突变,对应于沉积相从陆向海的转变,125 cm以下岩芯沉积物为暗红棕色陆相沉积,125cm以上为灰色-橄榄灰色海相粉砂沉积。推测该沉积相突变是对海南岛东寨港地震陷落事件响应,结合采样点潮位高程推测1605年琼山地震导致东寨港区域沉陷幅度至少为1.6~1.8 m。     

Fault-plane solutions and hypocentral distribution of some 1977 Friuli aftershocks

Summary. The polarity of first-arrivals of P -waves recorded by the vertical-component seismometers of the Friuli telemetric network of the Osservatorio Geofisico Sperimentale, Trieste have been used to fmd a number of cumulative fault-plane solutions of aftershocks of the large 1976 May Friuli earthquake. In spite of its poor quality, the cumulative solution for the whole period 1977 May—September is similar to the greatest majority of partial cumulative solutions which exhibit much better quality. The polarities of opposite sign, characterizing the first-arrivals of seismic rays which have travelled along subparallel paths and which are responsible for reducing the quality of the solutions, seem to be due mainly to variations in the direction of slip on faults with constant orientation. The inversion of P - and T -axes revealed by the solutions, however, occurred in certain periods at particular hypocentral depths or in specific epicentral zones and has been responsible for the reversal of some polarities.
The almost constant orientation of the principal stresses, revealed by most fault-plane solutions, suggests that they represent the orientation of the regional tectonic stresses related to this phase of the earthquake. Although this orientation is similar to that of the 1976 May shock, an inversion of the P - and T -axes suggests that normal faulting has taken over from reverse faulting observed for the main shock. The reversal of the P - and T -axes may be due to the partial release of the stresses related to the earthquake or to the shift of location of the hypocentres, possibly associated with a different limb of a major thrust-fold.     

Statistical study of the occurrence of shallow earthquakes

Summary. The time—space-magnitude interaction of shallow earthquakes has been investigated for three catalogues: worldwide ( M ≥ 7.0), Southern and Northern California ( M ≥ 4.0) and Central California ( M ≥ 1.5). The earthquake sequences are considered as a multi-dimensional stochastic point process; the estimates of the parameters for a branching model of the seismic process are obtained by a maximum-likelihood procedure. After applying magnitude—time and magnitude—distance scaling, the pattern of relationship among earthquakes of different magnitude ranges is almost identical. The number of foreshocks diminishes as the magnitude difference between the main shock and the foreshocks increases, while the magnitude distribution of aftershocks has the opposite property. The strongest aftershocks are likely to occur at the beginning of the sequence; later they migrate away with velocities of the order of km/day. The sequences which are composed of smaller aftershocks last longer and there are indications that they remain essentially in the focal region. Foreshocks also appear to migrate, but in this case, toward the main shock. The rate of occurrence of dependent shocks increases as t ^-1 as the origin time of the main shock is approached, effectively making every earthquake a multi-shock event. This interaction of earthquakes was modelled by a Monte-Carlo simulation technique. The statistical inversion of simulated catalogues was undertaken to derive the information we would be able to retrieve from actual data, as well as possible errors of estimates. The possibility of using these results as a tool for seismic risk prediction is discussed and evaluated.     

Rainfall Variability in Murang'a District, Kenya: Meteorological Data and Farmers' Perception

This study examines meteorological data and farmers' perception of rainfall in the Central Highlands of Kenya. Rainfall data from five meteorological stations during the period from 1947 to 1996 were analysed on an annual and a monthly basis. Daily data exist from 1957 and analyses from 1957 to 1996 were done on a daily basis. Discussions were held with 60 farmers about rainfall and its variation. Ten of these farmers were interviewed with a questionnaire about rainfall. Analysing annual precipitation and rain periods gave no clear trends over the study period. Results from analysing the growing seasons for maize, the main annual crop, and periods during which maize plants are sensitive to drought showed decreasing trends in rainfall amounts for the study period. Results from the interviews indicate that most of the farmers think rainfall has decreased over the last 40 years. Farmers'perceptions of rainfall are related to periods when the main food and annual crop require water and not to the periods scientists often analyse, i.e. annual and rain periods. More research and better advice from agricultural extension workers to farmers are necessary to enable this area to sustain itself in sufficient food production if the decreasing trends during the growing seasons and drought-sensitive periods continue.     

2005—2020年新疆雷电灾害特征分析

利用2005—2020年新疆雷电灾害统计数据及2013—2020年新疆闪电定位监测数据,从雷电灾害发生的行业分布、人员伤亡、经济损失等角度,对新疆2005—2020年雷电灾害特征进行了分析。结果表明：（1） 2005—2020年新疆共发生雷电灾害事件154次,导致82人伤亡,近16 a雷电灾害事件呈逐年递减趋势,其中月分布高发期在4—8月,这与新疆的雷电月活动规律一致。（2） 雷电灾害空间分布特征和地域有很大的相关性,雷电灾害主要集中在北疆阿勒泰地区、塔城东南部地区以及伊犁哈萨克自治州直属县市一线,而南疆的雷电灾害数量基本上很少。（3） 雷电灾害事件主要发生在农村,占雷电灾害事件总数的62.3%。雷电灾害事件造成的行业受损比例由多到少依次是民用电子设备、工厂设备、电力设备和建筑物。本研究结果可为新疆防雷减灾工作提供重要的理论依据。     

The IASPEI procedure for the evaluation of earthquake precursors

Full scientific evaluation of proposed earthquake precursors for earthquake prediction is a problem because independent testing is difficult or impossible. To approach this difficulty, and to assess the current state of the art of earthquake prediction research, IASPEI has devised a peer-review procedure for precursor evaluation. The procedure does not consider predictions of impending earthquakes, but evaluates case histories of proposed precursors for past events according to stated validation criteria, which are specified in terms of guidelines concerning the hypothesized physical model, data quality, anomaly definition, the rules of association of precursor with earthquake, and statistical significance. So far, five precursors have been placed on a preliminary list of significant earthquake precursors, although none has satisfied the validation criteria well enough to ensure that their placement is permanent. Exclusion of a precursor from the list does not mean it is useless, but further work is required if it is to become convincing. The main objectives in producing the list are to establish a consensus on the criteria which a precursor must satisfy to be recognized as validated, and to find case histories which satisfy these criteria. Further nominations of precursor candidates are requested for evaluation by the IASPEI procedure.     

The 1984 July 19 North Wales earthquake—a lower crustal continental event indicating brittle behaviour at an unusual depth

Summary. Attention has recently been focused on the structure and composition of the lower crust in continental areas. It is generally believed that, except in special circumstances, ductile behaviour below mid-crustal depths precludes the brittle processes that cause earthquakes. The 1984 July 19 earthquake in North Wales occurred at the unexpected depth of 23 km. We report here the location of the larger aftershocks and the relocation of the main shock with respect to one of them. The lower crustal depths of the events are confirmed by tests with a wide range of models. The occurrence of earthquakes at these depths may be related to low heat flow in the region.     

产业集群与日本区域经济发展及其对中国东北区的启示

分析了日本区域经济发展的基本态势,得出日本区域经济仍具有非均衡发展的特点,用传统经济地理学对日本区域经济非均衡发展作出了解释;然后运用新经济地理学的产业集群理论,分析了日本产业集群的发展特点,探讨了产业集群的发展机制,提出了日本产业集群的发展状况与区域经济非均衡发展关系十分密切的结论。最后,从培育产业集群的角度,探讨了促进中国东北区产业集群发展,推动东北区区域经济发展的途径。     

Aseismic fault movement before the 1995 Kobe earthquake detected by a GPS survey: implication for preseismic stress localization?

By inversion analysis of the baseline changes and horizontal displacements observed with GPS (Global Positioning System) during 1990–1994, a high-angle reverse fault was detected in the Shikoku-Kinki region, southwest Japan. The active blind fault is characterized by reverse dip-slip (0.7±0.2  m yr⁻¹ within a layer 17–26  km deep) with a length of 208±5  km, a (down-dip) width of 9±2  km, a dip-angle of 51°±2° and a strike direction of 40°±2° (NE). Evidence from the geological investigation of subfaults close to the southwestern portion of the fault, two historical earthquakes ( M _L=7.0, 1789 and 6.4, 1955) near the centre of the fault, and an additional inversion analysis of the baseline changes recorded by the nationwide permanent GPS array from 18 January to 31 December 1995 partially demonstrates the existence of the fault, and suggests that it might be a reactivation of a pre-existing fault in this region. The fact that hardly any earthquakes ( M _L>2.0) occurred at depth on the inferred fault plane suggests that the fault activity was largely aseismic. Based on the parameters of the blind fault estimated in this study, we evaluated stress changes in this region. It is found that shear stress concentrated and increased by up to 2.1 bar yr⁻¹ at a depth of about 20  km around the epicentral area of the 1995 January 17  Kobe earthquake ( M _L=7.2, Japan), and that the earthquake hypocentre received a Coulomb failure stress of about 5.6 bar yr⁻¹ during 1990–1994. The results suggest that the 1995  Kobe earthquake could have been induced or triggered by aseismic fault movement.     

Stress drops, wave spectra and recurrence intervals of great earthquakes — implications of the Etorofu earthquake of 1958 November 6

Summary . The great Etorofu earthquake of 1958 November 6 is characterized by a relatively small aftershock area (70 × 150 km²) and an extremely large felt area. The felt area is more extensive than those of any other large earthquakes which have occurred in the southern Kurile to northern Japan arc since the beginning of this century. The mechanism is a pure thrust fault typical of most great earthquakes in island arcs. A body wave magnitude of m _b = 8.2 is obtained at periods around 6 s using more than 40 observations, although an m _b value of only 7.6–7.7 would be expected empirically from the observed surface wave magnitude of M _s= 8.1–8.2. Both an unusually large felt area and a high m _b indicate a dominance of high-frequency components in the seismic waves. A seismic moment of M _o= 4.4 × 10²⁸ dyne cm is determined from long-period surface waves from which a high stress drop of Δσ = 78 bar is obtained using a relatively small aftershock area. Historic data indicate an anomalously long time interval between the 1958 event and any earlier great earthquake from the same source region. The observed high stress drop can be interpreted as a consequence of this long intervening period through which strain built up. The dominance of the high-frequency seismic waves can then be interpreted as a result of this high stress drop. Stress drops, seismic wave spectra and recurrence intervals of great earthquakes are in this way closely related to each other. The 1958 event may represent a high strength extreme of stochastic fluctuation of fracture strength relevant to great earthquakes.     

Earthquake sequences on a frictional fault model with non-uniform strengths and relaxation times

Summary. The space and time characteristics of earthquake sequences, including a main shock, aftershocks and the recurrence of major shocks in a long time range, are investigated on a frictional fault model with non-uniform strengths and relaxation times, which is subjected to a time-dependent shear stress. Aftershocks with low stress drop take place successively in spaced regions so as to fill the gaps which have not yet been ruptured since the main shock, while those with high stress drop occur in and around the regions left unruptured during the main faulting. The frequency decay of aftershocks with time follows a hyperbolic law with the rates p consistent with observations. There are good linear relations in logarithmic scales for source area versus frequency and seismic moment versus frequency of the generated aftershocks. The b -value obtained in the present experiments appears slightly larger than that for observations. It was found that more heterogeneous distribution of the fault strength give smaller p and larger b -values. The recurrence of major shocks, particularly of very large shocks with high stress drop, is often preceded by a completely silent period of activity or very low activity with a small number of foreshocks. The major shocks take place successively in adjacent unruptured regions and sometimes show slow-speed migrations. These results provide explanations to various observations of earthquake sequences.     

Lower-crustal rifting in the Rukwa Graben, East Africa

An M_w 5.9 earthquake occurred in the Lake Rukwa rift, Tanzania, on 1994 August 18, and was well recorded by 20 broad-band seismic stations at distances of 160 to 800 km and 21 broad-band stations at teleseismic distances. The regional and teleseismic waveforms have been used to investigate the source characteristics of the main shock, and also to locate aftershocks that occurred within three weeks of the main shock. Teleseismic body-wave modelling yields the following source parameters for the main shock: source depth of 25 ± 2 km, a normal fault orientation, with a horizontal tension axis striking NE-SW and an almost vertical pressure axis (Nodal Plane I: strike 126°–142°, dip 63°–66°, and rake 280°–290°; Nodal Plane II: strike 273°–289°, dip 28°–31°, and rake 235°–245°), a scalar moment of 4.1 times 10¹⁷ N m, and a 2 s impulsive source time function. Four of the largest aftershocks also nucleated at depths of 25 km, as deduced from regional sPmp–Pmp times. The nodal planes are broadly consistent with the orientation of both the Lupa and Ufipa faults, which bound the Rukwa rift to the northeast and southwest, respectively. The rupture radius of the main shock, assuming a circular fault, is estimated to be 4 km with a corresponding stress drop of 6.5 MPa. Published estimates of crustal thickness beneath the Rukwa rift indicate that the foci of the main shock and aftershocks lie at least 10 km above the Moho. The presence of lower-crustal seismicity beneath the Rukwa rift suggests that the pre-rift thermal structure of the rifted crust has not been strongly modified by the rifting, at least to depths of 25 km.