Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk assessment methodology for the Elbe River. A 1D hydraulic routing model is extended by including the effect of planned (regulated and unregulated) and unintended retention (dike breaches) on the peak water levels. We further add an inundation model for dike breaches due to dike overtopping and a macroscale economic approach to assess the flood damage. The flexible approach to model the effects of measures by means of volume storage functions allows for rapid assessment of combinations of retention measures of various proposed dimensions and at multiple locations. The method allows for the comparison of the flood risk at the scale of the main river trajectory, which has not been possible for the Elbe River to date. The model is applied to a series of exemplary flood risk mitigation measures to show the downstream effects and the additive effects of combinations of measures on the flood risk along the river. We further demonstrate the increase in the downstream flood risk resulting from unilateral decisions to increase the dike height at upstream locations. As expected, the results underline the potential effectiveness of increased retention along the river. The effects of controlled retention at the most upstream possible location and largest possible extent generate the most pronounced reduction of average annual damage. As expected, the effect of uncontrolled retention with dike relocations is significantly lower.     

Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure

A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies.     

Adapting to climate change: a comparison of two strategies for dike heightening

In the Netherlands the current dike design policy is to design flood defence structures corresponding to an agreed flooding probability with an extra safety board of at least 0.5 m. For river dikes a return period of 1,250 years is used to determine the design water levels. A problem with this strategy is that it builds on assumptions with regard to the intrinsically uncertain probability distributions for the peak discharges. The uncertainty is considerable and due to (1) the measuring records that are limited to about 100 years and (2) the changing natural variability as a result of climate change. Although the probability distributions are regularly updated based on new discharge data the nature of the statistics is such that a change in the natural variability of the peak discharge affects the probability distribution only long after the actual change has happened. Here we compare the performance of the probabilistic dike design strategy with the older strategy, referred to as the ‘self-learning dike’. The basic principle of the latter strategy is that the dike height is kept at a level equal to the highest recorded water level plus a certain safety margin. The two flood prevention strategies are compared on the basis of the flooding safety over a 100-year period. The Rhine gauge station at Lobith serves as case study. The results indicate that the self-learning dike performs better than the probabilistic design in terms of safety and costs, both under current and climate change conditions.     

Influence of water level duration on dike breach triggering,focusing on system behaviour hazard analyses in lowland rivers

ABSTRACT

Hazard analysis is a crucial step in flood risk management, and for large rivers, the effects of breaches need to be taken into account. Hazard analyses that incorporate this overall “system behaviour” have become increasingly popular in flood risk assessment. Methods to perform such analyses often focus on high water levels as a trigger for dike breaching. However, the duration of high water levels is known to be another important failure criterion. This study aims to investigate the effect of including this duration dependency in system behaviour analyses, using a computational framework in which two dike breach triggering methods are compared. The first triggers dike breaches based on water levels, and the second one based on both water-level and duration. The comparison is made for the Dutch Rhine system, where the dike failure probabilities are assumed to conform to the new Dutch standards of protection. The results show that including the duration as a breach triggering variable has an effect on the hydraulic loads and overall behaviour in the system, therefore influencing the risk. Although further work is required to fully understand the potential impact, the study suggests that including this duration dependency is important for future hazard risk analyses.     

Discussion of “Consequences of dike breaches and dike overflow in a bifurcating river system” by Anouk Bomers,Ralph M. J. Schielen and Suzanne J. M. H. Hulscher

In this discussion, the authors will point out that even if Bomers et al. (Nat Hazards 97:309–334, 2019) tackle an important problem, ignoring the uncertainties related to the roughness coefficients, Manning coefficients, the downstream boundary and most importantly the errors of the chosen software, HEC-RAS, are serious shortcomings of their study.

     

Fragility curves in operational dike reliability assessment

Operational flood prediction and flood risk assessment have become important components of flood management. One main aspect is the reliability assessment of the flood defence line during a flood event. This is generally performed by a comparison of the water level in the river to the crest height of the dikes whilst taking only hydraulic and geometric aspects into account. Additional information about material zones and material parameters are often available. However, these data are not in an appropriate shape when deriving the reliability of the flood defence line. This paper outlines how the fragility curve of a dike section is used to appropriately integrate geostatic and geohydraulic dike characteristics into operational flood management systems. Fragility curves are the result of a model-based reliability analysis and they summarise the dike performance depending on the water level. Failure modes such as piping or slope failure are included. In a case study, fragility curves for dike sections along the River Emscher (Germany) are determined. Their practical implementation in an operational flood management system shows an improvement in the operational reliability assessment due to the additional information taken into account. The use of fragility curves also supports the decision-making processes when emergency flood protection measures are required.     

The Indus flood of 2010 in Pakistan: a perspective analysis using remote sensing data

The Indus flood in 2010 was one of the greatest river disasters in recent history, which affected more than 14 million people in Pakistan. Although excessive rainfall between July and September 2010 has been cited as the major causative factor for this disaster, the human interventions in the river system over the years made this disaster a catastrophe. Geomorphic analysis suggests that the Indus River has had a very dynamic regime in the past. However, the river has now been constrained by embankments on both sides, and several barrages have been constructed along the river. As a result, the river has been aggrading rapidly during the last few decades due to its exceptionally high sediment load particularly in reaches upstream of the barrages. This in turn has caused significant increase in cross-valley gradient leading to breaches upstream of the barrages and inundation of large areas. Our flow accumulation analysis using SRTM data not only supports this interpretation but also points out that there are several reaches along the Indus River, which are still vulnerable to such breaches and flooding. Even though the Indus flood in 2010 was characterized by exceptionally high discharges, our experience in working on Himalayan rivers and similar recent events in rivers in Nepal and India suggest that such events can occur at relatively low discharges. It is therefore of utmost importance to identify such areas and plan mitigation measures as soon as possible. We emphasize the role of geomorphology in flood analysis and management and urge the river managers to take urgent steps to incorporate the geomorphic understanding of Himalayan rivers in river management plans.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Variation of uncertainty of drainage density in flood hazard mapping assessment with coupled 1D–2D hydrodynamics model

Coupled 1D–2D hydrodynamic models are widely utilized in flood hazard mapping. Previous studies adopted conceptual hydrological models or 1D hydrodynamic models to evaluate the impact of drainage density on river flow. However, the drainage density affects not only river flow, but also the flooded area and location. Therefore, this work adopts the 1D–2D model SOBEK to investigate the impact of drainage density on river flow. The uncertainty of drainage density in flood hazard mapping is assessed by a designed case and a real case, Yanshuixi Drainage in Tainan, Taiwan. Analytical results indicate that under the same return period rainfall, reduction in tributary drainages in a model (indicating a lower drainage density) results in an underestimate of the flooded area in tributary drainages. This underestimate causes higher peak discharges and total volume of discharges in the drainages, leading to flooding in certain downstream reaches, thereby overestimating the flooded area. The uncertainty of drainage density decreases with increased rainfall. We suggest that modeling flood hazard mapping with low return period rainfalls requires tributary drainages. For extreme rainfall events, a lower drainage density could be selected, but the drainage density of local key areas should be raised.

     

含盐风暴潮溃堤洪水数值模拟及风险分析

为了研究三角洲河口风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动规律,建立一、二维耦合的盐度数学模型对风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动进行模拟。模型考虑洪泛区建筑物对盐水运动的影响以及溃口的渐变发展过程。用2008年多个测站的实测数据对河网模型的潮位和盐度计算结果进行了验证。将模型应用于珠江三角洲河网某近海溃口风暴潮溃堤的盐水运动模拟,并绘制了最大盐度等值面图。计算结果表明,该溃口大部分区域的溃堤积水盐度超过了4psu,因此,溃堤洪水的高盐度积水影响不容忽视。通过比较“溃堤”和“不溃堤”两种情况下的河网盐度计算结果,发现上游河道的溃堤分流增大了河道的纳潮量,促使涨潮量增大,增大了下游河网的咸潮上溯风险,减弱了上游来流对咸潮的压制效果。     

Detecting groundwater contamination of a river in Georgia, USA using baseflow sampling

Algal blooms and fish kills were reported on a river in coastal Georgia (USA) downstream of a poultry-processing plant, prompting officials to conclude the problems resulted from overland flow associated with over-application of wastewater at the plant’s land application system (LAS). An investigation was undertaken to test the hypothesis that contaminated groundwater was also playing a significant role. Weekly samples were collected over a 12-month period along an 18 km reach of the river and key tributaries. Results showed elevated nitrogen concentrations in tributaries draining the plant and a tenfold increase in nitrate in the river between the tributary inputs. Because ammonia concentrations were low in this reach, it was concluded that nitrate was entering via groundwater discharge. Data from detailed river sampling and direct groundwater samples from springs and boreholes were used to isolate the entry point of the contaminant plume. Analysis showed two separate plumes, one associated with the plant’s unlined wastewater lagoon and another with its LAS spray fields. The continuous discharge of contaminated groundwater during summer low-flow conditions was found to have a more profound impact on river-water quality than periodic inputs by overland flow and tributary runoff.     

Sediment dynamics in the lowermost Mississippi River

There is much to be gained from investigating sediment dynamics in the lower Mississippi system, the largest river in terms of discharge and sediment load in North America. Such work can improve conceptual knowledge concerning downstream changes at the lower end of large river systems and can be applied to manage sediment diversions for wetland restoration in south Louisiana. Suspended sediment dynamics in the lowermost Mississippi River system in Louisiana are characterized using three approaches: (1) temporal changes in discharge-suspended sediment relationships showing interannual variations and the effects of floods over short timescales; (2) empirical relationships between discharge and suspended sediment variables at various locations; and (3) downstream changes in discharge-suspended sediment relationships. Interpretation of this data set is enhanced with other secondary data regarding processes, morphology, and bed materials.

Upstream, near Old River, LA, empirical relationships show nonlinearity, particularly in fine sediments, with decreased concentrations at highest discharges. During high discharge years, suspended sediment concentration peaks precede discharge crests by 40–85 days. The lead generally decreases with decreasing discharge maxima so that in low discharge years sediment peaks and discharge crests closely coincide in time. Downstream, near Belle Chasse, LA, fine bottom materials are resuspended and the timing of sediment peaks and discharge crests is coincident, regardless of flow magnitude. Conceptually, results suggest caution when generalizing about the relative timing of the sediment wave and flood wave and their downstream progression. These phenomena are influenced by local bed material and hydraulic conditions, and depend on the causative factors of sediment peaks. From an applied perspective, diversions should be managed differently depending upon where they are constructed along the river and upon the magnitude of the annual maximum flow. During high discharge years, when concerns for navigation and water supply are minimal, flow should be diverted on the rising limb upstream, near Old River, and during the discharge crest downstream near New Orleans.     

可变网格下的堤防溃口展宽二维数学模型

传统固定结构的计算网格不适于处理计算边界动态变化的问题,利用动网格技术,结合土力学中粘性土河岸的崩塌机理,建立了可变网格下的堤防溃口展宽二维数学模型,在对模型进行验证对比的基础上,对北江下游的大塘围蓄滞洪区口门处的崩塌展宽过程进行了模拟,模型计算结果表明:随着溃堤水流对堤防土体的冲蚀,堤防发生崩塌破坏,溃口洪水流量迅速增大,与实际相符,说明通过采用可变网格与土力学中粘性土河岸崩塌机理相结合的计算方法,使得模型具备准确模拟蓄滞洪区口门处横向崩塌展宽过程的优点。     

生产堤溃口展宽过程的概化模型试验研究

为研究生产堤溃口横向展宽过程的发展规律,以黄河下游生产堤土体为材料,开展概化模型试验,分析溃口处水深、流速、流量以及溃口宽度的变化。试验结果显示,溃口横向展宽的机理主要表现为水流冲刷堤身下层土体伴随上层悬臂土体发生绕轴崩塌;随着溃口展宽,堤前水深持续下降但下降速率逐渐减小,溃口流速呈先增大后减小的趋势,流速峰值约为1.1 m/s;随着主槽流量增加,溃口宽度发展至0.7 m时,溃口的水深、泄流流量、流速、展宽速率均有所增加。基于对溃口展宽的影响因素分析,提出溃口横向展宽速率的计算关系式,计算溃口展宽过程与实测值符合较好。研究结果不仅有助于生产堤展宽机理及发展规律的研究,还可为数学模型的建立与验证提供参考资料。     

生产堤溃口展宽过程的概化模型试验研究

为研究生产堤溃口横向展宽过程的发展规律,以黄河下游生产堤土体为材料,开展概化模型试验,分析溃口处水深、流速、流量以及溃口宽度的变化。试验结果显示,溃口横向展宽的机理主要表现为水流冲刷堤身下层土体伴随上层悬臂土体发生绕轴崩塌;随着溃口展宽,堤前水深持续下降但下降速率逐渐减小,溃口流速呈先增大后减小的趋势,流速峰值约为1.1 m/s;随着主槽流量增加,溃口宽度发展至0.7 m时,溃口的水深、泄流流量、流速、展宽速率均有所增加。基于对溃口展宽的影响因素分析,提出溃口横向展宽速率的计算关系式,计算溃口展宽过程与实测值符合较好。研究结果不仅有助于生产堤展宽机理及发展规律的研究,还可为数学模型的建立与验证提供参考资料。     

黄河内蒙古河段河道冲淤演变与凌情响应机制

黄河上游内蒙古冲积性河道凌汛问题突出,研究河道冲淤演变与凌情响应机制可为该河段防凌减灾提供技术支持。根据内蒙古河段凌情、河道冲淤演变资料,分析凌情变化表征指标及与之密切相关的河道冲淤演变特征指标,研究河道冲淤演变特征指标与凌情变化表征指标的响应关系。结果表明:河道冲淤演变的特征指标平滩流量与凌情表征指标冰下过流能力、槽蓄水增量关系密切,冰下过流能力为平滩流量的1/5左右,随着平滩流量减小而减小,而槽蓄水增量随着平滩流量的减小而增大,有利内蒙古河段防凌的平滩流量宜不小于2 000 m3/s,槽蓄水增量宜不超过14亿m3。本研究成果可为内蒙古河段冰凌灾害防治提供参考。     

An Assessment of Structural Measures for Flood-prone Lowlands with High Population Density along the Keelung River in Taiwan

Midstream of the Keelung River Basin in Northern Taiwan has become highly urbanized and densely populated area. Flood inundation along riversides frequently occurred during typhoons or rainstorms. Three protection measures, including constructions of high-level protection levees, a diversion channel, and a detention reservoir, were proposed for flood mitigation. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the flood mitigation performance of the three proposed structural measures by using combined hydrologic analyses and hydraulic routings. A semi-distributed parallel-type linear reservoirs rainfall-runoff model was used for estimating the surface runoff. Furthermore, a 1-D dynamic channel routing model was coupled with a two-dimensional inundation model to simulate the hydraulic characteristics of river flooding and overland flow. Simulation results of flood stages, runoff peak discharges, and inundation extent under design rainfall scenarios were chosen as the criteria for evaluation. The results showed a diversion channel is superior to the other two measures for flood mitigation of the study area. After the process of environmental impact assessment, a revised diversion channel approach has been approved for construction as the major structural measure.     

黄河山东东明河段堤防工程裂缝成因及防治对策

黄河下游堤防工程的建设为防洪安全提供了可靠保障.但由于多种原因,目前在已经完成的黄河山东东明河段标准化堤防工程的多处出现了裂缝,裂缝的产生势必影响到堤防工程的安全,因此有必要对裂缝的形成原因进行分析,从而提出预防对策及其处理措施,进而为下一步的黄河堤防工程建设提供技术支撑.     

Interregional and Transnational Co-operation in River Basins – Chances to Improve Flood Risk Management?

In European river basins many flood management and protection measures are planned. However, the realisation of effective but space consuming measures such as retention areas and dike relocation mostly lags far behind time schedules. The development and set-up of an interregional and transnational basin-wide co-operation structure (“flood management alliance”) is substantial to realise catchment oriented flood management. In particular, this co-operation structure must involve spatial planning. The interregional and transnational co-operation structure establishes the framework for the joint accomplishment of instruments for flood risk management which is basin-wide agreed on. One of these instruments comprises financial compensations between downstream and upstream regions which shall improve the acceptance and the realisation of measures which bear disadvantages for the regions where measures are located. Existing and planned basin-wide co-operations in large transnational European river catchments demonstrate reasonable developments towards these goals. However, further efforts have to be made to exploit the chances interregional co-operation offers for improved flood risk management.     

Influence of hydrate exploitation on stability of submarine slopes

Urban pluvial flash floods have become a matter of widespread concern, as they severely impact people’s lives in urban areas. Hydrological and hydraulic models have been widely used for urban flood management and urban planning. Traditionally, to reduce the complexity of urban flood modelling and simulations, simplification or generalization methods have been used; for example, some models focus on the simulation of overland water flow, and some models focus on the simulation of the water flow in sewer systems. However, the water flow of urban floods includes both overland flow and sewer system flow. The overland flow processes are impacted by many different geographical features in what is an extremely spatially heterogeneous environment. Therefore, this article is based on two widely used models (SWMM and ANUGA) that are coupled to develop a bi-directional method of simulating water flow processes in urban areas. The open source overland flow model uses the unstructured triangular as the spatial discretization scheme. The unstructured triangular-based hydraulic model can be better used to capture the spatial heterogeneity of the urban surfaces. So, the unstructured triangular-based model is an essential condition for heterogeneous feature-based urban flood simulation. The experiments indicate that the proposed coupled model in this article can accurately depict surface waterlogged areas and that the heterogeneous feature-based urban flood model can be used to determine different types of urban flow processes.