Transitions in the surface energy balance during the life cycle of a monsoon season

In this observational/diagnostic study, we illustrate the time history of some important parameters of the surface energy balance during the life cycle of a single monsoon season. This chronology of the surface energy balance portrays the differential equilibrium state from the preonset phase to the withdrawal phase. This includes an analysis of the time history of base variables such as soil moisture, ground temperature, cloud cover, precipitation and humidity. This is followed by an analysis of the components of the surface energy balance where we note subtle changes in the overall balances as we proceed from one epoch of the monsoon to the next. Of interest here is the transition sequence: preonset, onset, break, revival, break, revival and withdrawal during the year 2001. Computations are all illustrated for a box over central India where the coastal effects were small, data coverage was not sparse and where the semi-arid land mass changes drastically to a lush green area. This region exhibited large changes in the components of surface energy balance. The principal results pertain to what balances the difference among the incoming short wave radiation (at the earth’s surface) and the long wave radiation exhibited by the ground. That difference is balanced by a dominant sensible heat flux and the reflected short wave radiation in the preonset stage. A sudden change in the Bowen ratio going from>1 to <1 is noted soon after the onset of monsoon. Thereafter the latent heat flux from the land surface takes an important role and the sensible heat flux acquires a diminishing role. We also examine the subtle changes that occur in the components of surface energy balance between the break and the active phases. The break phases are seen to be quite different from the preonset phases. This study is aimed to illustrate the major importance of moisture and clouds in the radiative transfer computations that are central to the surface energy balance during each epoch. These sensitivities (of moisture and clouds) have major consequences for weather and climate forecasts     

Some characteristics of very heavy rainfall over Orissa during summer monsoon season

Orissa is one of the most flood prone states of India. The floods in Orissa mostly occur during monsoon season due to very heavy rainfall caused by synoptic scale monsoon disturbances. Hence a study is undertaken to find out the characteristic features of very heavy rainfall (24 hours rainfall ≥125 mm) over Orissa during summer monsoon season (June–September) by analysing 20 years (1980–1999) daily rainfall data of different stations in Orissa. The principal objective of this study is to find out the role of synoptic scale monsoon disturbances in spatial and temporal variability of very heavy rainfall over Orissa. Most of the very heavy rainfall events occur in July and August. The region, extending from central part of coastal Orissa in the southeast towards Sambalpur district in the northwest, experiences higher frequency and higher intensity of very heavy rainfall with less interannual variability. It is due to the fact that most of the causative synoptic disturbances like low pressure systems (LPS) develop over northwest (NW) Bay of Bengal with minimum interannual variation and the monsoon trough extends in west-northwesterly direction from the centre of the system. The very heavy rainfall occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the western side of Eastern Ghat during all the months and the season except September. It occurs more frequently with less interannual variability on the eastern side of Eastern Ghat during September. The NW Bay followed by Gangetic West Bengal/Orissa is the most favourable region of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over different parts of Orissa except eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The NW Bay and west central (WC) Bay are equally favourable regions of LPS to cause very heavy rainfall over eastern side of Eastern Ghat. The frequency of very heavy rainfall does not show any significant trend in recent years over Orissa except some places in north-east Orissa which exhibit significant rising trend in all the monsoon months and the season as a whole.     

Satellite-based monitoring of recent heavy flooding over north-eastern states of India in July 2019

Natural Hazards - South-west monsoon of 2019 advanced towards northern parts of India during the first week of July. Heavy-to-very-heavy rainfall events during July 05–16 resulted in severe...     

Variations in sulphate aerosols concentration during winter monsoon season for two consecutive years using a general circulation model

During the field cruises of the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) extensive measurements on the atmospheric chemical and aerosol composition are undertaken to study the long-range transport of air pollution from south and southeast Asia towards the Indian Ocean during the dry monsoon season in 1998 and 1999. The present paper discusses the temporal and spatial variations in aerosols and aerosol forcing during the winter monsoon season (January-March) for INDOEX first field phase (FFP) in 1998 and INDOEX intensive field phase (IFP) in 1999. An interactive chemistry/aerosol model (LMDZ.3.3) is used to investigate the variation in the spatial distribution of tropospheric sulphate aerosols during 1998 and 1999. The model results depict major enhancement in the sulphate aerosol concentrations, radiative forcing (RF) and optical depth over the Indian subcontinent and adjoining marine areas between INDOEX-FFP and IFP. A significant increase in transport of sulphate aerosols from the continents to the Indian Ocean region has also been simulated during the winter monsoon in 1999. The mean RF over INDOEX-FFP in 1998 is found to be ?1.2 Wm^–2 while it increased to ?1.85 Wm^–2 during INDOEX-IFP in 1999. Model results reveal a mean sulphate aerosol optical depth (AOD) of 0.08 and 0.14 over Indian subcontinent during 1998 and 1999, respectively. The model results suggest that elevated AOD downwind of source regions in India can significantly affect the regional air quality and adjoining marine environments.     

Mobilization of trace metals in a tropical turbid estuary influenced by a monsoon season

The selective removal of trace metals by suspended matter in high turbidity zones plays a major role in the fluvial transport of terrigenous metals to the marine environment. The seasonal longitudinal variability of trace elements (Cu, Zn, Cd, Ni, Pb, Fe, and Mn) in Cochin estuary, a tropical positive estuary, was studied and the results were compared with the prevailing situation in other subtropical waterways. The hydrodynamical features showed increasing turbidity downstream with increasing salinities during both the seasons. In contrast with the temperate estuaries where the development of turbidity maxima causes the removal of metals, the estuaries of tropics modify the fluvial transport of metals by the way of redistribution between the dissolved and particulate fractions in the intermediate salinities. In Cochin estuary, the distributional features of trace metals are primarily influenced by the variations in salinities and river discharges. Consequently, this gives rise to two different types of distributional patterns: (1) during premonsoon, the estuarine reactivity is more pronounced and hence, mid-estuarine solubilization of the particulate metal appears to play a prominent role in controlling the fluxes of trace metals studied and (2) but during monsoon, the hydrological conditions influence the downstream transport of the metals more by physical dilution than chemical reactivity.     

Vertical structure of orographic precipitating clouds observed over south Asia during summer monsoon season

Orography profoundly influences seasonal rainfall amount in several places in south Asia by affecting rain intensity and duration. One of the fundamental questions concerning orographic rainfall is nature of the associated precipitating clouds in the absence of synoptic forcing. It is believed that these clouds are not very deep, however, there is not much information in the literature on their vertical structure. The present study explores the vertical structure of precipitating clouds associated with orographic features in south Asia using data collected with the precipitation radar on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite. Two types of precipitating clouds have been defined based on cloud echo top height, namely, shallow echo-top cloud and medium echo-top cloud. In both, radar reflectivity factor is at least 30 dBZ at 1.5 km altitude, and tops of shallow and medium echo-top clouds lie below 4.5 km and between 4.5 and 8 km, respectively. The Western Ghats contains the highest fraction of the shallow echo-top clouds followed by the adjacent eastern Arabian Sea, while the Khasi Hills in Meghalaya and Cardamom Mountains in Cambodia contain the least fraction of them. Average vertical profiles of shallow echo-top clouds are similar in different mountainous areas while regional differences are observed in the medium echo-top clouds. Below 3 km, precipitation liquid water content in medium echo-top clouds is the highest over the Western Ghats and the eastern Arabian Sea. The average precipitation liquid water content increases by \(0.16\,\hbox { gm m}^{-3}\) for shallow echo-top clouds between 3 and 1.5 km altitude, while the corresponding increase for medium echo-top clouds is in 0.05–0.08 \(\hbox { gm m}^{-3}\) range.     

Skills of different mesoscale models over Indian region during monsoon season: Forecast errors

Performance of four mesoscale models namely, the MM5, ETA, RSM and WRF, run at NCMRWF for short range weather forecasting has been examined during monsoon-2006. Evaluation is carried out based upon comparisons between observations and day-1 and day-3 forecasts of wind, temperature, specific humidity, geopotential height, rainfall, systematic errors, root mean square errors and specific events like the monsoon depressions.It is very difficult to address the question of which model performs best over the Indian region? An honest answer is ‘none’. Perhaps an ensemble approach would be the best. However, if we must make a final verdict, it can be stated that in general, (i) the WRF is able to produce best All India rainfall prediction compared to observations in the day-1 forecast and, the MM5 is able to produce best All India rainfall forecasts in day-3, but ETA and RSM are able to depict the best distribution of rainfall maxima along the west coast of India, (ii) the MM5 is able to produce least RMSE of wind and geopotential fields at most of the time, and (iii) the RSM is able to produce least errors in the day-1 forecasts of the tracks, while the ETA model produces least errors in the day-3 forecasts.     

Doppler SODAR observations of the temperature structure parameter during monsoon season over a tropical rural station,Gadanki

Doppler SODAR (Sound Detection and Ranging) measurements over a tropical Indian station at National Atmospheric Research Laboratory (NARL), Gadanki (13.5°N, 79.2°E) during two consecutive monsoon seasons, 2007 and 2008, are investigated to study the influence of mechanically generated turbulence on temperature structure parameter (C_T²)_{\rm T}^{2}) in the convective boundary layer. Increase in the C_T²_{\rm T}^{2} is observed after the arrival of monsoon for both seasons. Contribution of vertical wind shear in horizontal wind component to C_T²_{\rm T}^{2} due to zonal winds is responsible for the increase observed in the temperature structure parameter which is inferred from the results obtained. C_T²_{\rm T}^{2} is found to be increased by an order of 2 in both the lower and upper altitudes, respectively. Magnitude of wind speed is reported to be doubled with the arrival of monsoon. It is also observed that, southwest monsoon wind modulates the day-to-day variations of wind pattern over this station during the onset phase of monsoon season. The lower variability observed at lower height is attributed to the complex topography surrounding this region.     

Atmospheric aerosol formation and its growth during the cold season in India

The effects of molecular diffusivity of H₂SO₄ and NH₃ vapours on nucleated particles of SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ species are reported. Condensation sink and source rate of H₂SO₄ and NH₃ vapours, growth rates and ratios of real to apparent nucleation rates are calculated for SO₄^– and NO₃⁻ aerosols using fractional contributions of them in total aerosol size-distribution during the measurement period at Pune, reported in Chate and Pranesha (2004). The percentage of nucleated SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ aerosols of mid-point diameter 13 nm are 2% and 3% respectively of the total particles (13 nm ≤ D _p ≤ 750 nm) for both H₂SO₄ and NH₃ diffusion. In the diameter range 75 nm ≤ D _p ≤ 133 nm, it is 48% and 45% of SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ aerosols, respectively for NH₃ diffusion and 43% and 36% of SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ for H₂SO₄ diffusion. Increase in percentage of nucleated particles of these species corresponding to mid-point diameter 133 nm around 0900 h IST is significantly higher than that of mid-point diameter 13 nm and it is due to photo-chemical nucleation, coagulation and coalescence among nucleated clusters. The ratios of real to apparent formation rates for SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ aerosols are 12% and 11% respectively, corresponding to mid-point diameter 13 nm, 17% and 13%, for midpoint diameter 133 nm and 12% and 9.5%, for mid-point diameter 750 nm. The results indicate that nucleation involving H₂SO₄ and acidic NH₃ diffusion on SO₄²⁻ and NO₃⁻ particles is the most relevant mechanism in this region.     

District-wide drought climatology of the southwest monsoon season over India based on standardized precipitation index (SPI)

District-wide drought climatology over India for the southwest monsoon season (June–September) has been examined using two simple drought indices; Percent of Normal Precipitation (PNP) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The season drought indices were computed using long times series (1901–2003) of southwest monsoon season rainfall data of 458 districts over the country. Identification of all India (nation-wide) drought incidences using both PNP and SPI yielded nearly similar results. However, the district-wide climatology based on PNP was biased by the aridity of the region. Whereas district-wide drought climatology based on SPI was not biased by aridity. This study shows that SPI is a better drought index than PNP for the district-wide drought monitoring over the country. SPI is also suitable for examining break and active events in the southwest monsoon rainfall over the country. The trend analysis of district-wide season (June–September) SPI series showed significant negative trends over several districts from Chattisgarh, Bihar, Kerala, Jharkhand, Assam and Meghalaya, Uttaranchal, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha etc., Whereas significant positive trends in the SPI series were observed over several districts from west Uttar Pradesh, west Madhya Pradesh, South & north Interior Karnataka, Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, East Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Gujarat etc.     

Sea-breeze-initiated rainfall over the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon

Sea-breeze-initiated convection and precipitation have been investigated along the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Sea-breeze circulation was observed on approximately 70–80% of days during the summer months (June–August) along the Chennai coast. Average sea-breeze wind speeds are greater at rural locations than in the urban region of Chennai. Sea-breeze circulation was shown to be the dominant mechanism initiating rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Approximately 80% of the total rainfall observed during the southwest monsoon over Chennai is directly related to convection initiated by sea-breeze circulation.     

Thermal perturbation during charnockitization and granulite facies metamorphism in southern India

Abstract We have deduced the steady-state lithospheric geotherm at c. 1 Ga in the south Indian shield area using the available data on the concentration of radioactive elements, and the P-T conditions of Proterozoic mantle xenoliths in the south Indian kimberlites as constraints. The geotherm was adjusted back to 2.5 Ga by keeping the surface temperature constant and calculating the temperature change at the top of convecting upper mantle. The reduced or mantle heat flux, which was treated as an adjustable parameter, was 20.9–21.3 mW/m² at 1–2.5 Ga. Comparison of the calculated steady-state geotherm with the available P-T data of the Archaean (c. 2.5 Ga) charnockites and granulites from southern India suggests that the granulite facies metamorphism in this region had resulted from a major thermal perturbation, which was c. 400° C at 25 km. Seismic tomographic and gravity data essentially preclude any significant magma underplating of the granulitic crust in southern India. Previous workers have suggested that the formation of charnockites in this region was associated with copious CO₂ influx from a deep-seated source, possibly the mantle. In this work, we have evaluated both the transient and steady-state thermal effects of the heat convected by CO₂ outgassing from upper mantle. It is shown that the thermobarometric array of charnockites and granulites can be produced by the convective perturbation of the steady-state geotherm, and that a flux of CO₂ of ±90 mol/m² yr (corresponding to Darcy velocity of ±0.30 cm/yr) for a period of ±30 Ma was needed to produce the required perturbation. This is c. 150 times the average CO₂ flux through the tectonically active area of the Earth's crust at the present time. There is, however, an uncertainty of a factor of 3 in this value. Seismic tomographic and gravity data independently suggest thickening of the crust beneath the granulite terrane compared with the adjacent Dharwar craton. This suggests thermal perturbation due to overthrusting as a major potential cause for the granulite facies metamorphism in south India. Overthrusting of a 30–35-km-thick thrust block was needed to produce the required thermal effect. The estimated thickness of the original crust from geobarometric and seismic tomographic data south of the orthopyroxene isograd or ‘transition zone’is compatible with the emplacement of a thrust block of this magnitude. However, the latter fails to match the estimated pre-uplift crustal thickness at the transition zone, if it is assumed that the crust has not thinned by non-erosional processes since the Archaean. Thus, we propose a combination of overthrusting and CO₂ fluxing from a deep-seated source as the cause for the formation of charnockites in this zone. The required focusing of CO₂ in this case is c. 40% of that estimated in the model where CO₂ fluxing was considered to be the sole reason for thermal perturbation. This combined thrusting—CO₂ fluxing model also helps explain the development of patchy charnockites in the transition zone from amphibolite facies rocks.     

Spectral characteristics of the nearshore waves off Paradip,India during monsoon and extreme events

Spectral and statistical wave parameters obtained from the measured time series wave data off Paradip, east coast of India during May 1996–January 1997 were analysed along with MIKE 21 spectral wave model (SW) results. Statistical wave parameters and directional wave energy spectra distinctly separate out the wave conditions that prevailed off Paradip in the monsoon, fair weather and extreme weather events during the above period. Frequency-energy spectra during extreme events are single peaked, and the maximum energy distribution is in a narrow frequency band with an average directional spreading of 20°. Spectra for other seasons are multi-peaked, and energy is distributed over a wide range of frequencies and directions. The NCEP re-analysis winds were used in the model, and the results clearly bring out the wave features during depressions. The simulated wave parameters reasonably show good match with the measurements. For example, the correlation coefficient between the measured and modelled significant wave height is 0.87 and the bias −0.25.     

Harmonic analysis of summer mean wind at 200 mbar level during contrasting monsoon years over India

Summer (June–August) mean zonal and meridional wind components at 200 mbar level are subjected to harmonic analysis for the years 1970, 1971, 1972 and 1979. It is found that the small scale disturbances are intense during normal monsoon years. The westerlies in the belt 10°S to 30°S are stronger during drought years. During normal monsoon years (1970, 1971) the northward transport of westerly momentum by wave number 1 at 19.6°N is large as compared to drought years (1972, 1979). The transport of westerly momentum by standing eddies is northward for all the years between 5°S and 28.7°N but large during the normal monsoon years.     

Spatial variations in chemical weathering and CO2 consumption in Nepalese High Himalayan catchments during the monsoon season

The major ion chemistry of the Marsyandi basin and six of its tributaries in the Nepalese Himalaya have been investigated during the monsoon months of 2002. Weekly water samples taken at 10 river monitoring stations in the Annapurna watershed over the course of 4 months provide chemical weathering data for the region at an unprecedented temporal and spatial resolution. The river chemistry of all but one basin is heavily dominated by carbonate weathering which, compared to silicate weathering, contributes 80 to 97% of the total solute load. This prevalence is due to a combination of (a) intrinsically faster dissolution kinetics of carbonates, (b) relatively high runoff and (c) glacial meltwater and low temperatures at high altitudes resulting in enhanced carbonate solubilities. Monitoring stations with headwaters in the Tethyan Sedimentary Series (TSS) are particularly carbonate-rich and slightly supersaturated with respect to calcite through half of the monsoon season. Silicate weathering in the TSS is driven largely by sulfuric acid and therefore does not contribute significantly to the drawdown of atmospheric CO₂. With respect to the tributaries in the Greater Himalayan Sequence (GHS), carbonate weathering is practically as predominant as for the TSS, in spite of the largely felsic lithology of the GHS. Relative to the TSS, the primary proton source in the GHS has shifted, with at least 80% of the protons derived from carbonic acid. Averaged over the whole field area, the CO₂ fluxes, based on silicate-derived Ca and Mg, are considerably lower than the global average. Assuming that this study area is representative of the entire range, we conclude that in situ weathering of the High Himalayas does not represent a significant sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide, despite the presence of a watershed south of the GHS that is characterized by a four times higher CO₂ consumption rate than the global average. Silicate weathering rates of all basins appear to be climate controlled, displaying a tight correlation with runoff and temperature. Given the extremely low chemical weathering under transport-limited conditions in high-altitude crystalline terrains outside of the monsoon season, this would result in virtually no chemical exhumation for 2/3 of the year in such a cold and arid climate, north of the rain shadow cast by the High Himalayas.     

Environmental forcings and micro-seismic monitoring in a rock wall prone to fall during the 2018 Buran winter storm

Natural Hazards - This study reports a comparative analysis of the environmental conditions and micro-seismicity recorded on a rock wall resulting from an intense meteorological event. The...     

Evaluating the impact of climate change in threshold values of thermodynamic indices during pre-monsoon thunderstorm season over Eastern India

Natural Hazards - The present study analyses thermodynamic indices variation over three sites of eastern Indian region: Bhubaneswar, Kolkata and Ranchi, associated with pre-monsoon thunderstorms...     

Performance of general circulation models and their ensembles for the prediction of drought indices over India during summer monsoon

The drought during the months of June to September (JJAS) results in significant deficiency in the annual rainfall and affects the hydrological planning, disaster management, and the agriculture sector of India. Advance information on drought characteristics over the space may help in risk assessment over the country. This issue motivated the present study which deals with the prediction of drought during JJAS through standardized precipitation index (SPI) using nine general circulation models (GCM) product. Among these GCMs, three are the atmospheric and six are atmosphere–ocean coupled models. The performance of these GCM’s predicted SPI is examined against the observed SPI for the time period of 1982–2010. After a rigorous analysis, it can be concluded that the skill of prediction by GCM is not satisfactory, whereas the ability of the coupled models is better than the atmospheric models. An attempt has been made to improve the accuracy of predicted SPI using two different multi-model ensemble (MME) schemes, viz., arithmetic mean and weighted mean using singular value decomposition-based multiple linear regressions (SVD-MLR) of GCMs. It is found that among these MME techniques, SVD-MLR-based MME has more skill as compared to simple MME as well as individual GCMs.     

Long-term changes in the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon over western India

This paper presents results of a study of long term trends in the characteristics of the within-season temporal profile of southwest monsoon rainfall over western India during the last five decades in relation to global warming induced regional climate change. In contrast to recent climate change analyses and projections, no significant long-term trends have been observed in this study. Slow decadal scale variations observed are analysed in relation to Pacific Decadal Oscillations (PDO). Daily variations in rainfall anomaly show opposite characteristics during negative and positive phases of PDO. The above-normal rainfall (>25%) is found during the starting phase of monsoon in negative PDO. Over the last decade, i.e., during 2000–2007, the seasonal rainfall amount, as well as seasonal span of southwest monsoon over western India is indicative of a gradual increase.