基于大尺度模式产品的误差订正与统计降尺度气象要素预报技术

应用自适应卡尔曼滤波方法,对大尺度模式要素预报进行误差订正和降尺度精细化气象要素预报。并通过对订正系数科学选取的研究,改进了滤波方法的应用效果。通过对大尺度模式系统进行误差订正,改善了大尺度模式预报的准确率,提高了模式要素,如2 m温度、10 m风等预报的精度,并基于改善了的大尺度模式预报场和高分辨率观测场,生成降尺度函数,得到高精度的气象要素预报产品,为精细化气象要素预报服务提供了有效的方法。     

关中盆地近地面风场和大气输送特征分析

利用2017年151个地面气象站的逐时观测数据和相关高空资料分析关中盆地近地面风场与输送特征。首先分析盆地内代表性站点的风速和风向观测事实,然后用CALMET风场诊断模式和轨迹计算模式获取当地逐小时风场和每日逐小时传输轨迹,分析风场类型。结果表明:关中盆地内日平均风速约1～3 m s?1,夏季风速高、秋冬季低;盆地中央的主导风向以沿地形走向的东北风和西南风为主,盆地四周测站的主导风向表现出顺着地形向盆地中央汇流的趋势。各站主导风向的季节变化不大。盆地内风场分为系统控制型、弱天气背景型和局地环流型3类,全年出现日数比例分别占8%、17.3%和74.7%。以山谷风日夜循环为特征的局地环流型风场最多。以西安城区为源点的大气输送轨迹显示,系统控制型风场以偏东北方向的输送为主,弱天气背景型和局地环流型风场的轨迹输送都大致以偏东北和偏西（以及偏西南）沿盆地走向以及偏东南朝向秦岭山地这三个方向为主。局地环流型的轨迹影响范围小,集中于盆地中央和南侧山地之间,表明这是一种不利于污染扩散的风场类型。     

Searching for Added Value in Simulating Climate Extremes with a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model over Western Canada. II: Basin-Scale Results

We evaluate the capacity of a regional climate model to simulate the statistics of extreme events, and also examine the effect of differing horizontal resolution, at the scale of individual hydrological basins in the topographically complex province of British Columbia, Canada. Two climate simulations of western Canada (WCan) were conducted with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (version 4) at 15 (CRCM15) and 45?km (CRCM45) horizontal resolution driven at the lateral boundaries by global reanalysis over the period 1973–1995. The simulations were evaluated with ANUSPLIN, a daily observational gridded surface temperature and precipitation product and with meteorological data recorded at 28 stations within the upper Peace, Nechako, and upper Columbia River basins. In this work, we focus largely on a comparison of the skill of each model configuration in simulating the 90th percentile of daily precipitation (PR90). The companion paper describes the results for a wider range of temperature and precipitation extremes over the entire WCan domain.

Over all three watersheds, both simulations exhibit cold biases compared with observations, with the bias exacerbated at higher resolution. Although both simulations generally display wet biases in median precipitation, CRCM15 features a reduced bias in PR90 in all three basins in summer and throughout the year in the upper Columbia River basin. However, the higher resolution model is inferior to CRCM45 with respect to rarer heavy precipitation events and also displays high spatial variability and lower spatial correlations with ANUSPLIN compared with the coarser resolution model. A reduction in the range of PR90 biases over the upper Columbia basin is noted when the 15?km results are averaged to the 45?km grid. This improvement is partly attributable to the averaging of errors between different elevation data used in the gridded observations and CRCM, but the sensitivity of CRCM15 to resolved topography is also clear from spatial maps of seasonal extremes. At the station scale, modest but systematic reductions in the bias of PR90 relative to ANUSPLIN are again found when the CRCM15 results are averaged to the 45?km grid. Furthermore, the annual cycle of inter-station spatial variance in the upper Columbia River basin is well reproduced by CRCM15 but not by ANUSPLIN or CRCM45. The former result highlights the beneficial effect of spatial averaging of small-scale climate variability, whereas the latter is evidently a demonstration of the added value at high resolution vis-à-vis the improved simulation of precipitation at the resolution limit of the model.     

Modelling Near-Surface Low Winds over Land under Stable Conditions: Sensitivity Tests,Flux-Gradient Relationships,and Stability Parameters

Low or weak wind-speed conditions, roughly defined as the periods when the mean wind speed at 10 m above the ground is 2 ms⁻¹ or less, are of considerable practical interest. However, they are not readily amenable to treatment within prognostic meteorological models and, consequently, difficult to predict, especially when the ambient stability is strong. In this paper, we apply an E − ε prognostic meteorological model to simulate near-surface meteorology and, focusing on low wind speeds, compare the predictions with measurements from two independent datasets. A sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the possible reasons for the relatively inferior model performance for low winds when the atmosphere is stably stratified. A comprehensive data analysis is carried out to study low wind stable conditions, concentrating on the validity of various forms of flux–gradient relationships for momentum and heat within the framework of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, which models employ for calculating surface fluxes. The observed behaviour of various stability parameters, such as the Richardson number, is investigated. The results point to inadequacies of the current flux–gradient relationships, especially regarding momentum, under strongly stable conditions as being a dominant reason for the poor low wind predictions. The modelling issues identified are not just restricted to the present model, but are general in nature. The use of an alternative stability function for momentum under strongly stable conditions is explored. It results in improved model performance for low winds; however, further research is needed to better understand strongly stable flows in the lower atmosphere and to develop methods that can translate that understanding to operational meteorological modelling.     

基于数值模式的月尺度近地层气象要素预报技术研究

利用WRF模式对美国NCEP发布的CFS气候预测业务产品在中国区域内进行动力降尺度预报,可得到预报时效为45天的逐6小时、30 km分辨率基础气象要素预测产品。再利用全国气象站观测资料和3个风电场70 m高度风速、温度观测资料对2015年冬季预测结果进行检验评估和分析,最后通过线性方法对地面要素预测结果和70 m高度风速、温度预测结果进行统计订正。结果表明:（1）2 m温度和相对湿度的全国预报平均绝对误差分别为4.71 ℃和18.81%,在华东、华中和华南地区误差较小;（2）10 m风速预报平均绝对误差为2.42 m/s,在东北、华北和西北地区误差较小;（3）线性订正后,2 m气温、相对湿度和10 m风速的预报绝对误差分别减小1.05 ℃、5.29%和1.47 m/s,并且订正后误差随时间变化更平稳;（4）订正后70 m高度风速和温度的预报绝对误差均减小,风速平均误差减小最大可达1.29 m/s（B塔）,气温平均绝对误差减小最大可达3 ℃（C塔）。研究结果表明,基于CFS产品和WRF模式的、与月尺度风电预报关系密切的气象要素预报性能较好,未来可将该方法尝试于风电场的月尺度功率预测产品研发。      

成都市一次重雾霾过程成因及污染源的HYSPLIT模式分析

利用成都地区环境空气质量指数资料、常规气象观测资料和ECMWF第五代全球再分析资料（ERA5），对2017年成都市冬季一次持续重雾霾过程的成因进行分析，并利用HYSPLIT后向轨迹模式分析此次污染物的来源。结果表明：此次重雾霾过程的成因是高低空相配合的不利环流形势，风速较低，垂直切变小，层结稳定，对流层中低层存在干暖空气构成逆温层，抑制了污染物的扩散。根据模式的结果，此次污染气团主要来源于较远距离的西北地区、四川盆地西南地区及盆地内部流转的气团。     

宁波舟山港气象灾害风险及服务效益评估

近年来海洋经济和港口快速发展,港口吞吐量不断增长,气象灾害对港口的安全生产和经济效益影响日益显著.对港口气象风险及气象服务效益的评估不仅能促进公众对气象事业的认知,也是各部门制定相关工作规划的重要参考.采用国际减灾战略风险评估模型,基于1974-2019年气象数据和2013-2019年港口险情事故数据,讨论浙江省宁波市...     

The impact of the assimilation of scatterometer winds on surface wind and wave forecasts

Recent work has demonstrated that surface marine winds from the Bureau of Meteorology's operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems are typically underestimated by 5 to 10%. This is likely to cause significant bias in modelled wave fields that are forced by these winds. A simple statistical adjustment of the wind components is shown to reduce the observed bias in Significant Wave Height considerably. The impact of increasing the vertical resolution of the NWP model and assimilating scatterometer data into the model is assessed by comparing the resulting forecast wind and waves to observations. It is found that, in general, the inclusion of scatterometer observations improves the accuracy of the surface wind forecasts. However, most of the improvement is shown to arise from the increased number of vertical levels in the atmospheric model, rather than directly from the use of the observations. When the wave model is forced with surface winds from the NWP model that includes scatterometer data, it is found that the scatterometer assimilation does not reduce the systematic bias in surface wave forecasts, but that the random errors are reduced.     

北大西洋风浪特征研究

本文利用国际气象船舶报资料对北大西洋海区的风场特征和海浪的分布规律及季节变化进行了分析研究,得到了该地区风场特征与海浪季节变化的规律。     

2020年上半年“COVID-19”疫情期间气象条件变化对四川盆地城市污染物质量浓度影响初步分析

大气污染物质量浓度变化主要受气象条件和人为排放变化所控制。2020年上半年在“新冠”疫情影响背景条件下,四川盆地的六项主要污染物质量浓度较往年有不同程度的变化,为了区分这些变化受气象条件和人为排放变化各自的影响程度,开展了气象条件变化对四川盆地污染物质量浓度影响的初步分析。分析结果表明:2020年1～6月整体空气质量优于2019年同期。主要影响污染物浓度的气象参数中,成都平原、川东北地区平均风速与往年相当,川南地区平均风速低于往年。从2020年3月开始,盆地各个城市的总降水量明显偏少,其中5月降水偏少情况最为严重,对应的相对湿度在5月同比较低。平均温度2020年高于2019年,尤其是5、6月平均温度较往年偏高大约4～5°C。月日照总时长从3、4月开始明显长于往年。用固定污染源,改变初始气象条件的方法进行数值模拟结果表明,PM2.5和PM10相似,1、2月模拟结果低于2019年,3、4月高于往年,5、6月同比偏低,主要偏差区域在川南城市群。SO₂ 在1、2月气象条件有利于扩散,3月川东北不利扩散,其余月份差距不明显。NO₂在2月气象条件较为不利,CO不利的月份为4月。4月气象条件有利于臭氧扩散,而5、6月盆地气象条件对O₃污染过程起了较强的推动作用。定量分析各个城市污染物浓度贡献率表明,受疫情影响,除臭氧外的颗粒物和气体污染物在1~4月人为排放贡献为负,5、6月由于全面复工复产,导致盆地的污染物浓度也有所上升,人为排放贡献率也大幅增加。O₃由于人为排放增加与不利气象条件叠加,导致盆地O₃污染情况较为严重。     

空气质量多模式系统在广州应用及对PM10预报效果评估

介绍了广州空气质量多模式系统并评估其对2010年9月广州市的气象要素和PM10日均浓度的24 h的预报效果.评估结果表明：模式系统较好地预测了气象要素的变化,但高估了风速;各空气质量模式能合理预测广州PM10浓度的时空变化,预报效果均处于可接受范围内(平均分数偏差MFB小于±60%且平均分数误差MFE小于75%),部分模式可达到优秀水平(MFB小于±30%且MFE小于50%),但同时各模式在郊区均预测偏高而在市区偏低;总体上,模式在广州郊区的PM10预报效果优于市区.模式间对比表明,在本次业务预报实践中,不存在最优的单模式,同一模式对不同的统计指标、不同的站点,其预报效果可能存在差异,基于算术平均集成各模式结果未能获得最优的预报效果.优化排放源空间分布并引进更好的集成预报方法(如权重平均、神经网络、多元回归等)是未来改进广州空气质量多模式系统预报效果的可能途径.     

复杂地形风场的精细数值模拟

风能是一种重要气候资源,随着我国风电规模的迅速增大,发展风能资源评估系统和风功率预测系统已成为一项重要的研究内容。国内外对复杂地形风场结构的数值模拟有大量研究,随着计算机能力增强,以往用于空气动力学精细流场计算的计算流体力学(Computational Fluid Dynamics,CFD)模式越来越多地在气象领域得到应用,人们开始研究用中尺度预报模式和CFD模式结合进行复杂地形风场的数值模拟。本文的耦合模式系统采用中尺度气象模式(WRF),通过嵌套网格到内层尺度(一般是几公里),然后通过耦合CFD模式Fluent软件获得高分辨率(水平30~100 m,垂直150 m高度以下10 m)的风速分布资料,得到精细化的风场信息。通过对鄱阳湖北部区域和云南杨梅山复杂地形的风场模拟,提供了风能评估和预报的一种可行的方法。     

Estimation and correction of model bias in the NASA/GMAO GEOS5 data assimilation system: Sequential implementation

This study presents a simplified multivariate bias correction scheme that is sequentially implemented in the GEOS5 data assimilation system and compared against a control experiment without model bias correction. The results show considerable improvement in terms of the mean biases of rawinsonde observation-minus-background (OmB) residuals for observed water vapor, wind and temperature variables. The time series spectral analysis shows whitening of bias-corrected OmB residuals, and mean biases for rawinsonde observation-minus-analysis (OmA) are also improved. Some wind and temperature biases in the control experiment near the equatorial tropopause nearly vanish from the bias-corrected experiment. Despite the analysis improvement, the bias correction scheme has only a moderate impact on forecast skill. Significant interaction is also found among quality-control, satellite observation bias correction, and background bias correction, and the latter positively impacts satellite bias correction.     

阿克苏河流域防洪气象服务保障技术分析

阿克苏河流域防汛抗旱气象服务的首要任务是夏季汛期防洪服务，其次是春季到夏初的抗旱服务。根据阿克苏河流域各类型洪水的气象成因，提出了该流域防洪气象服务保障技术包括：流域内山区积雪遥感监测，融雪气象条件分析，面融雪量分析，面雨量分析，流域内夏季强降水监测和短时短期预报，平原区大风天气过程的中短期预报等。环流特征分析是做好引发洪水的各类气象要素变化的分析和预报的基础，给出了阿克苏河流域洪水主要类型的环流特征。     

Verification of a Synthesized Method for the Calculation of Low-Level Climatological Wind Fields Using a Mesoscale Boundary-Layer Model

Low-level climatological wind fields over the La Plata River region of South America are synthesized with a dry, hydrostatic mesoscale boundary-layer numerical model. The model is forced at the upper boundary with the 1200 UTC local radiosonde observations and at the lower boundary with a land-river differential heating function defined from the daily meteorological observations of the region. The climatological wind field is defined as the mean value of a series of individual daily forecasts, employing two methods. The simplified method considers a 192-member ensemble (16 wind directions and 12 wind-speed classes at the upper boundary). Each member has a probability of occurrence that is determined from the 1959–1984 observations; the daily method uses a total of 3,248 days with available data during the same period. In both methods each realization is a daily forecast from which the mean wind distributions at 0300, 0900, 1500 and 2100 local standard time are calculated and compared to the observations of five meteorological stations in the region. The validation of the climatological wind fields for both methods is evaluated by means of the root-mean-square error of the wind-direction frequency distribution and mean wind speed by wind sector. The results obtained with the two methods are similar, and the errors in wind speed are always smaller than those in wind direction. The combined errors of wind direction and wind speed show that the ensemble method is outperformed by the daily method, on average by meteorological station in only one out of five of them, and on average by the time of the day in only one out of 4 h. The conclusion of the study is that the ensemble method is an appropriate methodology for determining high resolution, low-level climatological wind fields, with the boundary-layer model applied to a region with a strong diurnal cycle of surface thermal contrast. The proposed methodology is of particular utility for synthesizing wind fields over regions with limited meteorological observations, since the 192-member matrix can be easily defined with few observing points, as well as in the case of relatively incomplete records.     

四川盆地低空飞行的气象条件分析

根据2011～2018年四川省152个站点逐日08、14、20时的常规地面观测资料、逐小时加密自动站资料，以及3个探空站08时探空资料，详细分析了四川盆地低空(3000m以下)飞行的气象条件，包括不同高度层风场、温度、低云等气象要素的时空分布特征，以及对通用航空飞行器的影响。结果表明:四川盆地一年之中春季以及一日之中下午地面风对通航飞行的影响最大，秋季最小；盆地西北地区850hPa以下存在逆温层以及风向的切变，因此容易产生飞机颠簸，700hPa高度层因风向均匀而受到切变的影响最小；冬季盆地西北地区最易产生飞机积冰，且850hPa高度最容易发生中度积冰；盆地中部低云对飞行的影响最小。      

大同市酸雨变化特征及其与气象要素的关系

利用2007—2009年大同市酸雨资料,应用《酸雨观测规范》方法对大同市酸雨变化及其与气象要素的关系进行分析。结果表明：大同市酸雨发生频率为25.0%—36.36%,10月酸雨频率最高,达到75%;其他月份酸雨频率较低。大同市夏季酸雨强度为弱酸雨程度,而秋季酸雨频率则为最高。大同市小雨时酸雨发生频率为33.33%;中雨时酸雨发生频率为19.23%;大雨时酸雨发生频率为60.00%;暴雨时酸雨发生频率为0。由此可见,大同市在大雨天气时,酸雨出现的概率较高。随着风速的增大,降水的酸雨频率逐渐增大。大同市在S风向下的酸雨频率最高为18.60%,ESE和NNW风向下的酸雨频率较高为13.95%。通过分析大同市酸雨变化规律、气象气候条件等因素对酸雨的影响,探讨影响大同市酸雨形成的主要因素,从而为大同市酸雨污染控制提供科学依据。     

CLIWOC: A Climatological Database for the World's Oceans 1750–1854

We have compiled a meteorological database over the world's oceans by digitizing data from European ship logbooks of voyages in the period 1750–1854. The observations are carefully reviewed and transformed into quantitative data. The chief contents of the database are wind direction and wind force information, from a period without standardized scales. It is found that the information content of these so-called non-instrumental data is much higher than previously believed. The 105-year CLIWOC database extends existing meteorological world ocean databases like ICOADS back in time by a full century.     

Factors affecting boundary-layer wind shear over the Indian Ocean during FGGE

Statistics on the vertical wind shear in the boundary layer over the Indian Ocean were examined for the causes of regional and seasonal changes. Low-level cloud motions and surface ship wind reports were used to define the vertical shear. Temperature data from the ship reports were analyzed for boundary-layer stability related to the observed shears. Smaller wind shears were found in areas of large negative air-sea temperature difference (unstable boundary layers). The thermal wind effects were very small over most of the tropical Indian Ocean. The largest factor affecting the speed shear was the strength of the wind itself. Larger speed shear was found under high wind conditions. A small reduction in the direction difference between cloud and ship observations also was found under higher speeds. The scatter of cloud-ship comparisons around the mean (dispersion) also decreased for higher wind speeds. Daily gridded cloud motion and ship wind speed data had a correlation coefficient of 0.8 with a scatter of 1.9 m s^-1 (r.m.s.) around the mean difference.     

Operational hindcasting of the tropical Pacific

Procedures have been implemented at the Climate Analysis Center of the National Meteorological Center (CAC/NMC) to provide montly hindcasts of oceanographic conditions in the tropical Pacific. A central component of this system is a primitive equation ocean general circulation model that was developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). This is forced with monthly mean fields for wind stress and net heat flux. Until recently the former were derived from ship reports available on the Global Telecommunication System (GTS). The heat fluxes are slightly modified climatological fluxes from Esbensen and Kushnir. To correct for errors in the simulations, thermal data in the upper 450 and surface-temperature data are assimilated montly.Numerical experiments were run to examine the sensitivity of the simulations to small changes in the stress fields. Variations of the drag coefficient by 15% result in differences in sea-surface temperature (SST) and subsurface thermal structure in the eastern Pacific that are comparable with the observed annual and interannual variability. Comparisons with simulations in which the wind stresses were derived from operational atmospheric analyses show sensitivities of the same magnitude. Comparisons of simulations forced either with these of ship-recorded winds to a run with data assimilation show that significant errors are found in both, especially in the off-equatorial regions. Consequently, until forcing fields are improved, accurate simulations will require the use of data assimilation.