Cosmic ray flux variations, modulated by the solar and earth’s magnetic fields, and climate changes. 1. Time interval from the present to 10–12 ka ago (the Holocene Epoch)

Direct and indirect data on variations in cosmic rays, solar activity, geomagnetic dipole moment, and climate from the present to 10–12ka ago (the Holocene Epoch), registered in different natural archives (tree rings, ice layers, etc.), have been analyzed. The concentration of cosmogenic isotopes, generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes and coming into the Earth archives, makes it possible to obtain valuable information about variations in a number of natural processes. The cosmogenic isotopes ¹⁴C in tree rings and ¹⁰Be in ice layers, as well as cosmic rays, are modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, and time variations in these concentrations gives information about past solar and geomagnetic activities. Since the characteristics of natural reservoirs with cosmogenic ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be vary with climate changes, the concentrations of these isotopes also inform about climate changes in the past. A performed analysis indicates that cosmic ray flux variations are apparently the most effective natural factor of climate changes on a large time scale.     

Cosmic ray flux variations,modulated by the solar and terrestrial magnetic fields,and climate changes. Part 2: The time interval from ∼10000 to ∼100000 years ago

A joint analysis of paleodata on variations in cosmic ray fluxes, solar activity, geomagnetic field, and climate during the period from ～10000 to ～100000 years ago has been performed. Data on the time variations in the concentration of ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes, which are generated in the Earth’s atmosphere under the action of cosmic ray fluxes modulated by solar activity and geomagnetic field variations, were used to detect variations in solar activity and the geomagnetic dipole. Information about climate changes has been obtained mainly from variations in the concentration of stable isotopes in the natural archives. A performed analysis indicates that the variations in cosmic ray fluxes under the action of variations in the geomagnetic field and solar activity are apparently one of the most effective natural factors of long-term climate changeability on a large time scale.     

Cosmogenic isotopes and their role in present-day solar paleoastrophysics

Present-day data on ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be concentration in natural archives have been statistically analyzed. It has been established that it is difficult to extract information about solar activity variations on long (several Myr and longer) and, especially, short (to 30 years) time scales using radiocarbon data. It has been indicated that beryllium series bear reliable information about short-term, secular, and, probably, 1000-year variations in solar activity. Moreover, ¹⁰Be concentration in polar ice can also be used to study the internal dynamics of solar activity. It has been concluded that beryllium data are more promising than radiocarbon ones from the viewpoint of solar paleoastrophysics.     

Sulphur emissions to the stratosphere from explosive volcanic eruptions

 Two methods were used to quantify the flux of volcanic sulphur (as the equivalent mass of SO₂) to the stratosphere over different timescales during the Holocene. A combination of satellite-based measurements of sulphur yields from recent explosive volcanic eruptions with an appropriate rate of explosive volcanism for the past 200 years constrains the medium-term (∼10²years) flux of volcanic sulphur to the stratosphere to be ∼1 Mt a^–1, with lower and upper bounds of 0.3 and 3 Mt a^–1. The short-term (∼10- to 20-year) flux due to small magnitude (10¹⁰–10¹²kg) eruptions is of the order of 0.4 Mt a^–1. At any time the instantaneous levels of sulphur in the stratosphere are dominated by the most recent (0–3 years) volcanic events. The flux calculations do not attempt to address this very short timescale variability. Although there are significant errors associated with the raw sulphur emission data on which this analysis is based, the approach presented is general and may be readily modified as the quantity and quality of the data improve. Data from a Greenland ice core support these conclusions. Integration of the sulphate signals from presumed volcanic sources recorded in the GISP2 core provides a minimum estimate of the 10³–year volcanic SO₂ flux to the stratosphere of 0.5–1 Mt a^–1 over the past 9000 years. The short-term flux calculations do not account for the impact of rare, large events. The ice-core record does not fully account for the contribution from small, frequent events. Received: 27 September 1995 / Accepted: 13 December 1995     

Evidence for solar forcing of climate variation from δ18O of peat cellulose

There have been a number of investigations for examining the possible link between long-term climate variability and solar activity. A continuous δ¹⁸O record of peat cellulose covering the past 6 000 years and the response of climate variation inferred from the proxy record to solar forcing are reported. Results show that during the past 5 000 years the abrupt climate variations, including 17 warming and 17 cooling, and a serious of periodicities, such as 86, 101, 110, 127, 132, 140, 155, 207, 245, 311, 820 and 1 050 years, are strikingly correlative to the changes of solar irradiation and periodicity. These observations are considered as further evidence for a close relationship between solar activity and climate variations on time scales of decades to centuries.     

Long-term variations in the flux of cosmogenic isotope 10Be over the last 10000 years: Variations in the geomagnetic field and climate

A spectral analysis of data on the flux of cosmogenic ¹⁰Be in ice core samples from the Central Greenland (project GRIP) over the last 10 thousand years have been carried out. It has been shown that the ¹⁰Be flux varies cyclically; the most significant cycle is of about 2300 years. Variations in the position of the virtual geomagnetic pole over 8000 years have been analyzed. Significant components, pointing to the cyclic variation in the position of the geomagnetic pole with a period of about 2300 years, have been revealed in a periodogram of the virtual geomagnetic pole longitude. In addition to the nearly 2300-year-long cycle, some lines are observable in the ¹⁰Be flux periodogram, which can be considered as a manifestation of the 1000-year-long cycle of the ¹⁰Be deposition rate on the ice surface. The relationship between the cyclicity of the geomagnetic pole position and the ¹⁰Be flux is discussed.     

Variations in climate parameters at time intervals from hundreds to tens of millions of years in the past and its relation to solar activity

Unique palaeoclimatic data with annual time resolution as tree ring widths and annual varve deposits are analyzed in order to reveal periodicities in climatic processes at tens to hundreds of million years ago. The climatic periodicities thus found are compared with the solar and climatic periodicities observed at present.     

Quasi-biennial variations of the total solar flux: Their manifestation in variations of the stratospheric wind and the Earth’s rotation velocity

A detailed representation of variations of the total solar flux I has been obtained by analyzing the regular measurements of this flux by the Nimbus-7 and other spacecrafts. In particular, quasi-biennial variations (QBVs) of the monthly average value 〈I〉 and standard deviation sI within a month interval have been revealed. It is remarkable that the QBVs of sI almost coincide in shape with the QBVs of many solar activity and ionospheric indices, and the QBVs of 〈I〉 are almost in antiphase with the variations of sI. The manifestation of the QBVs of 〈I〉 in some processes on the Earth has been already revealed. A relation between the QBVs of 〈I〉 for solar radiation (according to the Nimbus-7 and ACRIM-2 data) and the QBVs of the zonal stratospheric wind near the equator, as well as the QBVs of the Earth’s rotation velocity, has been found. Many of the considered QBV-processes on the Earth are seemingly attributed to the variations of the total solar flux.     

Cosmic rays and solar wind turbulence: Peculiarities of the 23rd solar cycle

This paper addresses observed variations in cosmic ray (CR) intensity, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), the solar wind (SW) turbulence energy spectrum, and the energy spectrum index of Forbush decreases in the 20th–23rd solar cycles. Unlike the previous three cycles, there are some distinctive features in the 23rd solar cycle. The entire cycle shows a considerable increase in the index of the SW turbulence energy spectrum inclination and an substantially harder energy spectrum of Forbush decreases. The anomalously high flux of high-energy CRs and the anomalously low level of the IMF strength were recorded at the end of this cycle. The conclusion has been made that such unusual CR behavior is associated with a decrease in the degree of scattering in the resonance interaction between CR fluxes and SW inhomogeneities with spatial scales of ∼10¹² cm.     

地球同步轨道高能电子变化

结合小波分析及交叉小波分析方法,研究了地球同步轨道高能电子动态变化的多时间尺度结构,分析了电子通量在不同周期随着太阳风速、地磁指数D_st变化的具体特点.结果发现：（1）电子通量的长期变化受控于太阳风速,在太阳活动低值年,电子通量值高,具有明显的13.4天,27.4天及187天周期;交叉小波分析表明,电子通量的13.4天及27.4天周期受太阳风速周期变化信号的影响,187天周期变化受D_st指数周期变化信号的影响.（2）电子通量半年变化主要归因于太阳风的驱动作用,在每年的第100天及270左右达到两次峰值,峰值大小不对称,与D_st指数的谷值大小呈反比.（3）由于冕洞形成过程中的太阳风高速流影响,电子通量具有13.4及27.4天的周期,峰值水平受控于太阳风速结构.     

10Be dating of North Pacific sediment cores up to 2.5 million years B.P.

The¹⁰Be method of dating of marine sediment cores is applied to five North Pacific cores. Assuming a constant¹⁰Be precipitation rate and varying sedimentation rates with time during the past 2.5 m.y. dating confirms to that obtained from paleomagnetic stratigraphy. The¹⁰Be concentration variations with depth in the cores are primarily due to changes in sediment dilution and do not reflect cosmic ray intensity or global climate variations. The limits of¹⁰Be deposition rate variation in the investigated cores are less than ± 10% for periods of (2–7) × 10⁵ years and less than ±30% for periods of 1 × 10⁵ years. The data set gives a half-life of¹⁰Be is 1.50 × 10⁶ years. The latitudinal effect of¹⁰Be concentrations and¹⁰Be/⁹Be ratios relates to a frequency of particulate matter occurrence (detrital and biological particles) in the oceans and to oceanic circulation.     

Long-term solar activity as a controlling factor for global warming in the 20th century

Such high-resolution indirect data on solar activity as the ¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be cosmogenic isotopes have been considered. The long-term solar activity cyclicity during the last millennium with periods of approximately 90 and 210 years, which can be related to substantial climatic warming and cooling events in this millennium, has been established based on an analysis of these data. It has been indicated that long-term recent climate warming can result from the effect of the ∼90- and ∼210-year solar cycles on the climatic system, which is characterized by the nonlinear dynamics.     

The impact of storm-triggered landslides on sediment dynamics and catchment-wide denudation rates in the southern Central Range of Taiwan following the extreme rainfall event of Typhoon Morakot

Extreme erosion events can produce large short-term sediment fluxes. Such events complicate erosion rates estimated from cosmogenic nuclide concentrations in river sediment by providing sediment with a concentration different from the long-term basin average. We present a detrital ¹⁰Be study in southern Taiwan, with multiple samples obtained in a time sequence bracketing the 2009 Typhoon Morakot, to assess the impact of landslide sediment on ¹⁰Be concentrations (N¹⁰Be) in river sediment. Sediment samples were collected from 13 major basins, two or three times over the last decade, to observe the temporal variation of N¹⁰Be. Landslide inventories with time intervals of 5–6 years were used to quantify sediment flux changes. A negative correlation between N¹⁰Be and landslide areal density indicates dilution of N¹⁰Be by landslide sediment. Denudation rates estimated from the diluted N¹⁰Be can be up to three times higher than the lowest rate derived from the same basins. Observed increases imply that, 3 years after the passage of Typhoon Morakot, fluvial channels still contain a considerable amount of sediment provided by hillslope landslides during the event. However, higher N¹⁰Be in 2016 samples indicate that the contribution from landslide sediment at the sampled grain size has decreased with time. The correlation between changes in N¹⁰Be and landslide area and volume is not strong, likely resulting from the stochastic and complex nature of sediment transport. To simultaneously evaluate the volume of landslide-derived sediment and estimate the background denudation rate, associated with less impulsive sediment supply, we constructed a sediment-mixing model with the time series of N¹⁰Be and landslide inventories. The spatial pattern of background erosion rate in southern Taiwan is consistent with the regional tectonic framework, indicating that the landscape is evolving mainly in response to the tectonic forcing, and this signal is modified, but not obscured by impulsive sediment supply. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

10Be and Th isotopes in manganese nodules and adjacent sediments: Nodule growth histories and nuclide behavior

The concentration profiles of ⁹Be, ¹⁰Be, ²³⁰Th, ²³²Th, ²³¹Pa (via ²²⁷Th) and ²³⁸U have been measured in three manganese nodules, one each from the North Pacific (A47-16(4)), the South Pacific (TF-5) and the Indian Ocean (R/V Vitiaz). In addition the ¹⁰Be concentration in deep water from the GEOSECS reoccupation station 500 of the North Pacific, and in ? cores raised from the manganese nodule field in the North Pacific have been measured. The ¹⁰Be concentration in nodule and seawater samples was measured by the accelerator masss spectrometric technique employing the Yale Tandem Van de Graaff accelerator.The concentrations of ¹⁰Be, ²³⁰Th_exc and ²³¹Pa_exc and ratios of ¹⁰Be/⁹Be and ²³⁰Th_exc/²³²Th all decrease with depth in the nodules. This decrease, interpreted in terms of nodule growth, yields “average” growth rates of a few millimeters per million years for the nodules. The growth rates of the nodules exhibit temporal variations, both on short time (～ 50,000 years) and long time (several million years) scales. Of the three nodules studied, only in TF-5 is the short-term average growth rate based on ²³⁰Th_exc in the top 0–0.5 mm the same as the long-term average rate based on Be isotope data for the 0.5–17 mm interval. For the other two nodules, the recent average growth rates based on²³⁰Th_exc data differ significantly from the long-term average growth rates based on Be isotopes. In A47-16(4) the ¹⁰Be based rate is less than the ²³⁰Th_exc rate and in R/V Vitiaz the ¹⁰Be based rate is greater than the ²³⁰Th_exc rate. This observation, coupled with measurable changes in growth rates even during the past few hundred thousand years, suggests, but does not prove, that the discordant growth rates deduced from ²³⁰Th_exc and ¹⁰Be profiles document changes in nodule growth rate with time rather than mixing effects on ²³⁰Th_exc profiles.The ¹⁰Be concentration in the GEOSECS North Pacific deep water is 6100±1200 atoms/g. This value coupled with the average surface ¹⁰Be/⁹Be ratio of North Pacific nodules predicts a ⁹Be concentration within the limits of measured values. The inventory of ¹⁰Be and ²³⁰Th_exc in the nodules is only ～ 10% of the total, the remaining being in sediments. The ¹⁰Be concentrations in the upper portions of two adjacent cores studied are nearly the same, but the deposition fluxes of both ¹⁰Be and ²³⁰Th based on ²³⁰Th dating vary by a factor of two. This difference is attributable to local redistribution of sediment at the time of deposition prior to accumulation.     

Imprint of Climate Variability on Mesozoic Fossil Tree Rings: Evidences of Solar Activity Signals on Environmental Records Around 200 Million Years Ago?

Evidence of the solar activity modulation of the Earth’s climate has been observed on several parameters, from decadal to millennial time scales. Several proxies have been used to reconstruct the paleoclimate as well as the solar activity. The paleoclimate reconstructions are based on direct and/or indirect effects of global and regional climate conditions. The solar activity reconstructions are based on the production of the ¹⁴C isotope due to the interaction of cosmic ray flux and the Earth’s atmosphere. Because trees respond to climate conditions and store ¹⁴C, they have been used as proxies for both for climate and solar activity reconstructions. The imprints of solar activity cycles dating back to 10,000 years ago have been observed on tree-ring samples using ¹⁴C data, and those dating back to 20 million years ago have been analyzed using fossil tree-growth rings. All this corresponds to the Cenozoic era. However, solar activity imprints on tree rings from earlier than that era have not been investigated yet. In this work, we showed that tree rings from the Mesozoic Era (of ~200 million years ago) recorded 11- and 22-year cycles, which may be related to solar activity cycles, and that were statistically significant at the 95 % confidence level. The fossil wood was collected in the southern region of Brazil. Our analysis of the fossils' tree-ring width series power spectra showed characteristics similar to the modern araucaria tree, with a noticeable decadal periodicity. Assuming that the Earth’s climate responds to solar variability and that responses did not vary significantly over the last ~200 million years, we conclude that the solar–climate connection was likely present during the Mesozoic era.     

Ozone content of the atmosphere. 2. Variability of the total ozone content in the atmosphere and the horizontal wind in the lower thermosphere (Central Europe)

The correlation between total ozone content lower thermosphere horizontal wind parameters, and standard indices of solar activity and geomagnetic activity has been studied. The satellite measurements of TOC for five observatories in Central Europe and the lower thermosphere wind measurements for Collm observatory (Germany) were used for 1996–2003. The quasi-periodic structure of these variations and the correlation between the corresponding periodograms were also studied. The quantitative evaluation of the statistically significant correlations and common periodicities were revealed.     

Be in a deep-sea core: implications regardingBe production changes over the past 420 ka

The influx of¹⁰Be into a globigerinid ooze core (CH72-02) from the eastern North Atlantic has been studied. This core contains a depositional record of the first 11 δ¹⁸O stages covering the last 423 ka. It is shown that the marine deposition of¹⁰Be is strongly influenced by the sedimentation of clays. Clay particles appear 10 times more efficient than the carbonate component as a carrier in bringing¹⁰Be to the bottom sediments. In core CH72-02, the deposition rates of¹⁰Be averaged over each oxygen-isotope stage for the past 11 stages show a scatter of ±40% about the mean value of 6.6 × 10⁸ atoms cm⁻² ka⁻¹. However, after correction for changes in lithology, the data show that the production rate of¹⁰Be over the same period has varied no more than ±25%, and the variations are not systematic in that high or low¹⁰Be production appear to be associated with either cold or warm climates. On the time scale of this investigation (intervals of ca. 50 ka over the last 420 ka, with resolutions as fine as 10 ka for portions of the record), it is unlikely that the shielding effect of the solar wind has deviated by more than ±25% or the geomagnetic field intensity has deviated by more than a factor of 1.6 from their long-term averages.     

Decadal scale variability of sea surface temperature in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to atmospheric variability

Twenty-four years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) data (1985–2008) and 35 years of NOCS (V.2) in situ-based SST data (1973–2008) were used to investigate the decadal scale variability of this parameter in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to local air–sea interaction and large-scale atmospheric variability. Satellite and in situ-derived data indicate a strong eastward increasing sea surface warming trend from the early 1990s onwards. The satellite-derived mean annual warming rate is about 0.037°C year^–1 for the whole basin, about 0.026°C year^–1 for the western sub-basin and about 0.042°C year^–1 for the eastern sub-basin over 1985–2008. NOCS-derived data indicate similar variability but with lower warming trends for both sub-basins over the same period. The long-term Mediterranean SST spatiotemporal variability is mainly associated with horizontal heat advection variations and an increasing warming of the Atlantic inflow. Analysis of SST and net heat flux inter-annual variations indicates a negative correlation, with the long-term SST increase, driving a net air–sea heat flux decrease in the Mediterranean Sea through a large increase in the latent heat loss. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the monthly average anomaly satellite-derived time series showed that the first EOF mode is associated with a long-term warming trend throughout the whole Mediterranean surface and it is highly correlated with both the Eastern Atlantic (EA) pattern and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index. On the other hand, SST basin-average yearly anomaly and NAO variations show low and not statistically significant correlations of opposite sign for the eastern (negative correlation) and western (positive correlation) sub-basins. However, there seems to be a link between NAO and SST decadal-scale variations that is particularly evidenced in the second EOF mode of SST anomalies. NOCS SST time series show a significant SST rise in the western basin from 1973 to the late 1980s following a large warming of the inflowing surface Atlantic waters and a long-term increase of the NAO index, whereas SST slowly increased in the eastern basin. In the early 1990s, there is an abrupt change from a very high positive to a low NAO phase which coincides with a large change in the SST spatiotemporal variability pattern. This pronounced variability shift is followed by an acceleration of the warming rate in the Mediterranean Sea and a change in the direction (from westward to eastward) of its spatial increasing tendency.     

Variations in tree ring stable isotope records from northern Finland and their possible connection to solar activity

Within a project on climate in Europe during the past few hundred years we have collected a record on stable isotope ratios ¹³C/¹²C and ¹⁸O/¹⁶O in tree ring cellulose from pine trees in northern Finland. The records cover the time interval 1600–2002 AD and have an annual time resolution. The carbon stable isotope record from northernmost Finland correlates quite strongly with local growth period temperature. Statistical analysis of the carbon and oxygen stable isotope records reveals variations in the periods around 100, 11 and 3 years. A century scale connection between the ¹³C/¹²C record and solar activity is most evident. These results based on stable isotope records support previous evidences of a centennial solar-climatic link obtained for northern Finland using tree ring data.     

Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere and its possible relation to solar activity variations

Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60–130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60–85 and 85–130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.