2019年大学生气象防灾减灾志愿者中国行——黑龙江小分队在佳木斯开展活动

<正>由中国气象局、教育部、共青团中央、中国科协、中国气象学会发起并主办的"大学生气象防灾减灾志愿者中国行活动"黑龙江小分队于2019年7月31日来到黑龙江省佳木斯市开展活动。小分队活动由黑龙江省气象局、黑龙江省气象学会、成都信息工程大学、佳木斯市气象局、佳木斯市气象学会承办。小分队走进佳木斯市第5中学,以PPT讲授、分组问答、发放科普小礼品等形式向同学们讲解气象科     

淡水养殖与气象服务

淡水养殖与气象有密切关系，各种气象灾害部会不同程度地给淡水养殖带来损失。因此，加强气象服务对淡水养殖很重要。1淡水养殖与气象的关系1．1淡水养殖品种不断优化，对气象条件的要求越来越高，随着社会主义市场经济的不断发展，淡水养殖从过去比较单一的“四大家鱼”逐步向名、优、稀新品种发展，耐寒性较差的热带和亚热带鱼类也占有相当的比例，气象条件尤其是热量条件对淡水养殖的产量和品质有着重要的影响。1．2气象灾害频繁，年际变化很大，影响淡水养殖的主要气象灾害有：寒潮、台风暴雨、洪涝、高温，其中以寒潮和洪涝危害最大，…     

省局领导到佳木斯地区气象部门检查指导工作

4月18至21日,省局党组书记、局长杨卫东,党组成员、副局长高玉中到佳木斯气象卫星地面站、佳木斯市气象局及其所属县局检查指导工作。杨卫东一行详细了解了职工队伍建设、业务建设、职工工资和津贴待遇等情况。在听取了工作汇报后,杨卫东对佳木斯气象卫星地面站及佳木斯市气象工作给予充分肯定。杨卫东要求各级气象干部职工要围绕气象部门中心工作,立足本职岗位,     

佳木斯市电线积冰观测分析

利用佳木斯市气象观测站19511～2010年的电线积冰观测数据资料,对佳木斯市电线积冰的气候特征进行了统计分析.结果表明:电线积冰日数呈减少趋势;电线积冰均发生在采暖期内,其中1月份最多;佳木斯电线积冰多为雾凇造成,具有重量轻、危害小的特点.产生电线积冰时需同时具备低温和充足水汽两个条件.     

四川气候变化对淡水资源的影响

淡水资源是人类赖以生存的重要物质,它最主要的来源是大气降水.我们在调查了四川水资源现有状况的基础上,根据大量气象资料的分析和研究,揭示出近50年四川气候的特点及气候变化的规律性,提出了未来50年四川气候趋势预测及其对淡水资源的影响,并从气象科学的角度提出若干对策和建议,供决策参考.     

四川气候变化对淡水资源的影响

淡水资源是人类赖以生存的重要物质,它最主要的来源是大气降水。我们在调查了四川水资源现有状况的基础上,根据大量气象资料的分析和研究,揭示出近５０年四川气候的特点及气候变化的规律性,提出了未来５０年四川气候趋势预测及其对淡水资源的影响,并从气象科学的角度提出若干对策和建议,供决策参考。     

新疆渔业气候分析及区划初探

渔业气象,在我区尚属空白.虽然淡水渔业,不像海洋渔业那样具有众多的危险性,但我区渔业生产的各个环节,却无不与气象密切相关.     

佳木斯市积温带北移速度的估算

国内外有关研究成果和观测事实证明,８０年代以来全球气候正在变暖,而且今后一个时期仍将变暖,这必然对农业生产带来直接影响。根据佳木斯市农业生产的需要和现有气象资料,对当地７个市（县）的≥１０℃积温资料进行了统计分析,得出初步结论,可供各级领导部门在指挥...     

江苏沿海气象灾害预报及产业警示技术

为了更好地开展海洋气象预报服务,江苏省海洋气象台和3个市级海洋气象台就江苏沿海气象灾害预报技术和产业警示技术进行了相关合作,通过对沿海不同海域大风、大雾、海浪等灾害性天气预测、预警方法的共同研究,构建了不同海域的海洋气象预报业务流程,同时还针对该地区产业气象发展的需求,开发了航海、盐业、港口工程、围滩涂海、海水淡水养殖、海滨旅游等产业气象警示预测创新项目。文章介绍了江苏沿海气象灾害预报和产业警示的主要技术方法。     

佳木斯地区热量条件变化规律及积温带北移的分析

对佳木斯市近50a的热量要素序列资料进行统计分析，得出对发展佳木斯市经济具有实际意义的结论和可利用的生物指标，指导工农业生产。     

Geo-politics and freshwater fish introductions: How the Cold War shaped Europe's fish allodiversity

Activities that manipulate ecosystems to support economic activities provide major introduction pathways for non-native species. As such, substantial differences in the socioeconomic conditions between countries could influence how ecosystems are manipulated and thus impact the composition of their communities of non-native species. Here, we compared the influence of freshwater fish aquaculture production and macro-socioeconomic drivers on the freshwater fish allodiversity of Europe between 1970 and 2009. A divergence in the socio-economic conditions of Europe prevailed during much of the latter half of the 20th Century as a result of the Cold War. For example, GDP and GDP per capita were significantly higher in Western bloc countries compared to the Eastern bloc. In this 39 year period, aquaculture production in Eastern bloc countries was dominated by Asian cyprinid fish whereas in Western bloc countries it was dominated by the North American rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Analysis of a European database on introduced fish into the wild from aquaculture revealed that in entirety, there were 279 separate freshwater fish introductions in Europe associated with aquaculture (Eastern bloc 118, Western bloc 161), involving 117 species from 32 families. There was relatively low homogeneity in these introduced fishes between the two blocs; only 28 species were introduced into both. Western bloc countries also had significantly more introduced fishes and more introduction events, and less similarity in the introduced fishes between their countries. Aquaculture production was a significant predictor of the number of non-native freshwater fish across all the countries, although additional factors, especially human population size and GDP per capita, were also significant predictors. Thus, aquaculture has been a strong introduction pressure in Europe and provides a reliable predictor of fish allodiversity.     

Detecting climate impacts with oceanic fish and fisheries data

Anthropogenic climate change is affecting the environment of all oceans, modifying ocean circulation, temperature, chemistry and productivity. While evidence for changes in physical signals is often distinct, impacts on fishes inhabiting oceanic systems are not easily identified, and therefore, quantification of responses is less common. Correctly attributing changes associated with a changing climate from other drivers is important for the implementation of effective harvest and management strategies and for addressing associated socio-economic impacts, particularly for countries highly dependent on oceanic resources. Data supporting investigation of responses of oceanic species to climate impacts include fisheries catch, fisheries-independent surveys, and conventional and electronic tagging data. However, there are a number of challenges associated with detecting climatic responses with these data, including (i) data collection costs (ii) small sample sizes (iii) limited time series relative to temporal scales at which environmental variability occurs, (iv) changing fisher and fisheries behavior due to non-climate drivers and (v) changes in population dynamics due to natural climate variability and non-climate drivers. We highlight potential biases and suggest strategies that should be considered when using oceanic fish and fisheries data in the evaluation of climate change impacts. Consideration of these factors is important when assessing variability in exploited species and designing management responses to climate or fisheries threats.     

Shocks to fish production: Identification,trends, and consequences

Sudden disruptions, or shocks, to food production can adversely impact access to and trade of food commodities. Seafood is the most traded food commodity and is globally important to human nutrition. The seafood production and trade system is exposed to a variety of disruptions including fishery collapses, natural disasters, oil spills, policy changes, and aquaculture disease outbreaks, aquafeed resource access and price spikes. The patterns and trends of these shocks to fisheries and aquaculture are poorly characterized and this limits the ability to generalize or predict responses to political, economic, and environmental changes. We applied a statistical shock detection approach to historic fisheries and aquaculture data to identify shocks over the period 1976–2011. A complementary case study approach was used to identify possible key social and political dynamics related to these shocks. The lack of a trend in the frequency or magnitude of the identified shocks and the range of identified causes suggest shocks are a common feature of these systems which occur due to a variety, and often multiple and simultaneous, causes. Shocks occurred most frequently in the Caribbean and Central America, the Middle East and North Africa, and South America, while the largest magnitude shocks occurred in Asia, Europe, and Africa. Shocks also occurred more frequently in aquaculture systems than in capture systems, particularly in recent years. In response to shocks, countries tend to increase imports and experience decreases in supply. The specific combination of changes in trade and supply are context specific, which is highlighted through four case studies. Historical examples of shocks considered in this study can inform policy for responding to shocks and identify potential risks and opportunities to build resilience in the global food system.     

Climate change impacts on fish catch in the world fishing grounds

Climate change impacts on fish catch in the major fishing areas in the world oceans using a new method for forecasting of fish catch is presented with probability statements. The data on historical behaviour of surface water temperature and fish catches were analyzed and processed to assess the dynamics of spatial temperature distribution and fish catches for the world oceans. An analysis shows that the species diversity of fish catch does not change significantly with time and hence the total fish catch was used as the main dynamic variables, practically without loss of information about the dynamic properties of the system. A predictor was constructed to predict the dynamics of fish catch for new values of four moments for a future temperature distribution and the predictor’s power was estimated with a probability statement. Based on the predicted temperatures for the years 2000–2100, the fish catches in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans have been predicted with a probability statement.     

Impact of intensive fish farming on methane emission in a tropical hydropower reservoir

Fisheries and aquaculture are important sources of food for hundreds of millions of people around the world. World fish production is projected to increase by 15% in the next 10 years, reaching around 200 million tonnes per year. The main driver of this increase will be based on fish farming management in developing countries. In Brazil, fish farming is increasing due to the climate conditions and large supply of water resources, with the production system based on Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) farming in reservoirs. Inland waters like reservoirs are a natural source of methane (CH₄) to the atmosphere. However, knowledge of the impact from intensive fish production in net cages on CH₄ fluxes is not well known. This paper presents in situ measurements of CH₄ fluxes and dissolved CH₄ (DM) in the Furnas Hydroelectric Reservoir in order to evaluate the impact of fish farming on methane emissions. Measurements were taken in a control area without fish production and three areas with fish farming. The overall mean of diffusive methane flux (DMF) (5.9?±?4.5 mg CH₄ m^?2 day^?1) was significantly lower when compared to the overall mean of bubble methane flux (BMF) (552.9?±?1003.9 mg CH₄ m^?2 day^?1). The DMF and DM were significantly higher in the two areas with fish farming, whereas the BMF was not significantly different. The DMF and DM were correlated to depth and chlorophyll-a. However, the low production of BMF did not allow the comparison with the limnological parameters measured. This case study shows that CH₄ emissions are influenced more by reservoir characteristics than fish production. Further investigation is necessary to assess the impact of fish farming on the greenhouse gas emissions.     

镉质量浓度和鱼尺寸对罗非鱼积累和转移镉的影响

为研究尺寸和镉(Cd²⁺)质量浓度对罗非鱼积累和转移水环境中Cd²⁺的影响,用室内培养的方法,选取4种尺寸的罗非鱼,设置不同质量浓度Cd²⁺的暴露试验,分别测定其半致死率、Cd²⁺积累量和对Cd²⁺的转移系数以及罗非鱼的相对增长率.结果表明:不同尺寸的罗非鱼对Cd²⁺的响应不同,其中,幼龄鱼的LC₅₀浓度最低,体长为31.5±3.4 cm的罗非鱼LC₅₀最高;低质量浓度Cd²⁺(0.5 mg/kg)处理下,罗非鱼尺寸不同,相同鱼组织对Cd²⁺的吸收积累量差异显著(P< 0.05),而高质量浓度Cd²⁺处理时,不同尺寸罗非鱼的同一组织对Cd²⁺的积累量无显著性差异;除体长27.4±2.9 cm罗非鱼外,相同尺寸的罗非鱼Cd²⁺转移系数都是低质量浓度显著大于高质量浓度(P< 0.05);高质量浓度Cd²⁺处理对各种尺寸罗非鱼质量增加的抑制率显著高于低质量浓度Cd²⁺处理的抑制率.此外,不同Cd²⁺质量浓度对相同尺寸的罗非鱼也产生不同的影响.因此,罗非鱼的尺寸和Cd²⁺质量浓度都对罗非鱼积累和转移Cd²⁺产生影响.     

Use of a reservoir water quality model to simulate global climate change effects on fish habitat

A case study was conducted on the potential impacts of climate change on fish habitat in a southeastern reservoir. A reservoir water quality model and one year of baseline meteorologic, hydrologic, and inflow water quality input were used to simulate current reservoir water quality. Total adult striped bass habitat, defined by specific quantitative temperature and dissolved oxygen criteria, was simulated. Daily reservoir volumes with optimal, suboptimal, and unsuitable temperature and DO were predicted for the year. Output from recent runs of atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs), in which atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations have been doubled, was then used to adjust the baseline inputs to the water quality model. New sets of input data were created for two grid cells for each of three GCMs. All six climate scenarios are predicted to cause overall declines in the available summer striped bass habitat, mostly due to lake water temperatures exceeding striped bass tolerance levels. These predictions are believed to result from the consensus among GCM scenarios that air temperatures and humidity will rise, and the sensitivity of the reservoir model to these parameters. The reservoir model was found to be a promising tool for examining potential climate-change impacts. Some of the assumptions required to apply GCM output to the reservoir model, however, illustrate the problems in using large-scale gridcell output to assess small-scale impacts.     

Trade-offs associated with different modeling approaches for assessment of fish and shellfish responses to climate change

Considerable progress has been made in integrating carbon, nutrient, phytoplankton and zooplankton dynamics into global-scale physical climate models. Scientists are exploring ways to extend the resolution of the biosphere within these Earth system models (ESMs) to include impacts on global distribution and abundance of commercially exploited fish and shellfish. This paper compares different methods for modeling fish and shellfish responses to climate change on global and regional scales. Several different modeling approaches are considered including: direct applications of ESM’s, use of ESM output for estimation of shifts in bioclimatic windows, using ESM outputs to force single- and multi-species stock projection models, and using ESM and physical climate model outputs to force regional bio-physical models of varying complexity and mechanistic resolution. We evaluate the utility of each of these modeling approaches in addressing nine key questions relevant to climate change impacts on living marine resources. No single modeling approach was capable of fully addressing each question. A blend of highly mechanistic and less computationally intensive methods is recommended to gain mechanistic insights and to identify model uncertainties.     

Dams on the Mekong River: Lost fish protein and the implications for land and water resources

Proposed dam construction in the Lower Mekong Basin will considerably reduce fish catch and place heightened demands on the resources necessary to replace lost protein and calories. Additional land and water required to replace lost fish protein with livestock products are modelled using land and water footprint methods. Two main scenarios cover projections of these increased demands and enable the specific impact from the main stem dam proposals to be considered in the context of basin-wide hydropower development. Scenario 1 models 11 main stem dams and estimates a 4–7% increase overall in water use for food production, with much higher estimations for countries entirely within the Basin: Cambodia (29–64%) and Laos (12–24%). Land increases run to a 13–27% increase. In scenario 2, covering another 77 dams planned in the Basin by 2030 and reservoir fisheries, projections are much higher: 6–17% for water, and 19–63% for land. These are first estimates of impacts of dam development on fisheries and will be strongly mediated by cultural and economic factors. The results suggest that basic food security is potentially at a high risk of disruption and therefore basin stakeholders should be fully engaged in strategies to offset these impacts.