Mitigating the effects of storm surges generated by tropical cyclones: A proposal

One of the regions of the globe that is frequently and very significantly affected by storm surges is Bangladesh. These high amplitude water-level oscillations are generated by the meteorological forcing fields due to tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. The tide also plays a significant role in determining the time history of the total water level. Due to the greenhouse warming associated with the increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, it is expected that the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal will increase substantially within the next 50 to 100 years. This new breed of tropical cyclones, referred to as hypercanes, will generate storm surges on the coast of Bangladesh which could attain amplitudes of up to 15 m, much greater than the present-day amplitudes of up to 6 m. Various mitigation procedures are discussed and compared.     

Quantitative assessment of inundation risks from physical contributors associated with future storm surges: a case study of Typhoon Maemi (2003)

Natural Hazards - Future storm-induced inundation risks were assessed by performing storm surge modeling based on Typhoon Maemi (2003) under the generic climate change scenarios proposed by IPCC...     

Simulation of severe thunder storm event: a case study over Pune,India

Numerical simulation of a typical tropical thunder storm event at Pune (18.53°N, 73.85°E), India, has been performed using the three nested domain configuration of Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research Weather Model (version 3.2). The model simulations have been compared with observations. Sensitivity to cumulus parameterization schemes, namely Betts–Miller (BM), Grell–Devenyi (GD), and Kain–Fritsch (KF), for simulation of vertical structure and time evolution of weather parameters has been evaluated using observations from automatic weather station and global positioning system radiosonde ascents. Comparison of spatial distribution of 24-h accumulated rain with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data shows that BM scheme could simulate better rain than GD and KF schemes. The BM scheme could well simulate the development of storm and heavy rain as it could generate sufficiently humid and deep layer in the lower and middle atmosphere, along with co-existence of updrafts and downdrafts and frozen hydrometeors at the middle level and rain water near the surface.     

Evaluation of groundwater vulnerability to pollution using DRASTIC framework and GIS

Groundwater management has a prominent role in the world especially in arid and semi-arid areas which have a shortage of water, and due to this serious problem, many researchers work on that for prevention and managing the water recourses to conserve and monitor sources. DRASTIC index can be put forward for estimating of groundwater vulnerability to such pollution. The main purpose of using the groundwater vulnerability model is to map groundwater susceptibility to pollution in different areas. However, this method has been used in various areas without modification, disregarding the effects of pollution type and characteristics. Thus, this technique must be standardized and approved for Kerman plain. Vulnerability evaluation to explain areas that are more vulnerable to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become a prominent element for land use planning and tangible resource management. This contribution aims at evaluating groundwater vulnerability by applying the DRASTIC index as well as employ sensitivity analyses to evaluate the comparative prominent of the model parameters for groundwater vulnerability in Kerman plain in the southeastern part of Iran. Moreover, the potential of vulnerability to pollution is more accurately assessed by optimizing the weights of the DRASTIC parameters with the single-parameter sensitivity analysis (SPSA). The new weights were calculated. The result of the study revealed that the DRASTIC-Sensitivity analysis exhibit more efficiently than the traditional method for a nonpoint source pollution. Observation of ultimate nitrate showed the result of DRASTIC-SPSA has more accuracy. The GIS method offers an efficient environment for carrying out assessments and greater capabilities for dealing with a huge quantity of spatial data.     

Social vulnerability to floods: a case study of Huaihe River Basin

Since ancient times, floods occurred frequently in Huaihe River with significant casualties and economic losses. In developing measures for disaster prevention or emergency response for disaster relief, the study of social vulnerability to floods in Huaihe River Basin should be strengthened. Based on the latest socioeconomic data, the index system of social vulnerability to floods was constructed from three dimensions: population, economy, and flood prevention. Sensitive indexes were identified from the original indexes by principal component analysis, and the social vulnerability index for floods was calculated for Huaihe River Basin. The results described the characteristics of the spatial distribution. It also demonstrated that vulnerability manifests itself as a regional phenomenon, with significant changes from city to city across the Huaihe River Basin. Understanding the impacts of changes in vulnerability was crucial in developing measures to prevent floods.     

Field observation and numerical simulation of past and future storm surges in the Bay of Bengal: case study of cyclone Nargis

Natural Hazards - Storm surges are one of the most important risks to coastal communities around the Bay of Bengal, and it is feared that the threat they pose will increase with climate change in...     

Evaluation of groundwater vulnerability in El-Bahariya Oasis,Western Desert,Egypt, using modelling and GIS techniques: A case study

The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSSA) is the main groundwater resource of the El-Bahariya Oasis, which is located in the middle of the Western Desert of Egypt. This aquifer is composed mainly of continental clastic sediments of sandstone with shale and clay intercalations of saturated thickness ranging between 100 and 1500 m. Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sustainable resources management and land use planning. Accordingly, this research aims to estimate the vulnerability of NSSA by applying the DRASTIC model as well as utilising sensitivity analyses to evaluate the relative importance of the model parameters for aquifer vulnerability in the study area. The main objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the DRASTIC and the GIS techniques as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment, and mapping the areas that are prone to deterioration of groundwater quality and quantity. Based on DRASTIC index (DI) values, a groundwater vulnerability map was produced using the GIS. The aquifer analysis in the study area highlighted the following key points: the northeastern and western parts of the NSSA were dominated by ‘High’ vulnerability classes while the northwestern and southeastern parts were characterised by ‘Medium’ vulnerability classes. The elevated central part of the study area displayed ‘Low’ aquifer vulnerability. The vulnerability map shows a relatively greater risk imposed on the northeastern part of the NSSA due to the larger pollution potential of intensive vegetable cultivation. Depth-to-water, topography and hydraulic conductivity parameters were found to be more effective in assessing aquifer vulnerability.     

Correction to: Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro,Japan

Natural Hazards - To: Street-scale storm.     

Potential impacts of extreme storm surges on a low-lying densely populated coastline: the case of Dunkirk area, Northern France

Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.     

Assessing groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution using statistical approaches: a case study of Sidi Bouzid shallow aquifer,Central Tunisia

The study region comprises the Sidi Bouzid shallow aquifer, which is located in the western part of Central Tunisia. It is mainly occupied by agricultural land with intensive use of chemical fertilizers especially nitrates. For this reason, nitrate measurement was performed in 38 water samples to evaluate and calibrate the obtained models. Several environmental parameters were analyzed using groundwater nitrate concentrations, and different statistical approaches were applied to assess and validate the groundwater vulnerability to nitrate pollution in the Sidi Bouzid shallow aquifer. Multiple linear regression (MLR), analyses of covariance (ANCOVA), and logistic regression (LR) were carried out for studying the nitrate effects on groundwater pollution. Statistical analyses were used to identify major environmental factors that control the groundwater nitrate concentration in this region. Correlation and statistical analyses were conducted to examine the relationship between the nitrate (dependent variable) and various environmental variables (independent variables). All methods show that “groundwater depth” and “land use” parameters are statistically significant at 95% level of confidence. Groundwater vulnerability map was obtained by overlaying these two thematic layers which were obtained in the GIS environment. It shows that the high vulnerability area coincides with the likelihood that nitrate concentration exceeds 24.5 mg/l in groundwater. The relationship between the groundwater vulnerability classes and the nitrate concentrations provides satisfactory results; it showed an Eta-squared correlation coefficient of 64%. So, the groundwater vulnerability map can be used as a synthetic document for realistic management of groundwater quality.     

Assessment of aquifer vulnerability based on GIS and DRASTIC methods: a case study of the Senirkent-Uluborlu Basin (Isparta, Turkey)

Aquifer vulnerability has been assessed in the Senirkent-Uluborlu Basin within the Egirdir Lake catchment (Turkey) using the DRASTIC method, based on a geographic information system (GIS). There is widespread agriculture in the basin, and fertilizer (nitrate) and pesticide applications have caused groundwater contamination as a result of leaching. According to hydrogeological data from the study area, surface water and groundwater flow are towards Egirdir Lake. Hence, aquifer vulnerability in the basin should be determined by water quality in Egirdir Lake. DRASTIC layers were prepared using data such as rainfall, groundwater level, aquifer type, and hydraulic conductivity. These data were obtained from hydrogeological investigations and literature. A regional-scale aquifer-vulnerability map of the basin was prepared using overlay analysis with the aid of GIS. A DRASTIC vulnerability map, verified by nitrate in groundwater data, shows that the defined areas are compatible with land-use data. It is concluded that 20.8% of the basin area is highly vulnerable and urgent pollution-preventions measures should be taken for every kind of relevant activity within the whole basin.     

Soil erosion and sediment yield modeling using RS and GIS techniques: a case study, Iran

Water erosion is a serious and continuous environmental problem in many parts of the world. The need to quantify the amount of erosion, sediment delivery, and sediment yield in a spatially distributed form has become essential at the watershed scale and in the implementation of conservation efforts. In this study, an effort to predict potential annual soil loss and sediment yield is conducted by using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) model with adaptation in a geographic information system (GIS). The rainfall erosivity, soil erosivity, slope length, steepness, plant cover, and management practice and conservation support practice factors are among the basic factors that are obtained from monthly and annual rainfall data, soil map of the region, 50-m digital elevation model, remote sensing (RS) techniques (with use of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), and GIS, respectively. The Ilam dam watershed which is located southeast part of Ilam province in western Iran is considered as study area. The study indicates that the slope length and steepness of the RUSLE model are the most effective factors controlling soil erosion in the region. The mean annual soil loss and sediment yield are also predicted. Moreover, the results indicated that 45.25%, 12.18%, 12.44%, 10.79%, and 19.34% of the study area are under minimal, low, moderate, high, and extreme actual erosion risks, respectively. Since 30.13% of the region is under high and extreme erosion risk, adoption of suitable conservation measures seems to be inevitable. So, the RUSLE model integrated with RS and GIS techniques has a great potential for producing accurate and inexpensive erosion and sediment yield risk maps in Iran.     

Geomorphology and landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and bivariate statistics: a case study in southern Italy

In this article, the results of a study aimed to assess the landslide susceptibility in the Calaggio Torrent basin (Campanian Apennines, southern Italy) are presented. The landslide susceptibility has been assessed using two bivariate-statistics-based methods in a GIS environment. In the first method, widely used in the existing literature, weighting values (Wi) have been calculated for each class of the selected causal factors (lithology, land-use, slope angle and aspect) taking into account the landslide density (detachment zones + landslide body) within each class. In the second method, which is a modification of the first method, only the landslide detachment zone (LDZ) density has been taken into account to calculate the weighting values. This latter method is probably characterized by a major geomorphological coherence. In fact, differently from the landslide bodies, LDZ must necessarily occur in geoenvironmental classes prone to failure. Thus, the calculated Wi seem to be more reliable in estimating the propensity of a given class to generate failure. The thematic maps have been reclassified on the basis of the calculated Wi and then overlaid, with the purpose to produce landslide susceptibility maps. The used methods converge both in indicating that most part of the study area is characterized by a high–very high landslide susceptibility and in the location and extent of the low-susceptible areas. However, an increase of both the high–very high and moderate–high susceptible areas occurs in using the second method. Both the produced susceptibility maps have been compared with the geomorphological map, highlighting an excellent coherence which is higher using method-2. In both methods, the percentage of each susceptibility class affected by landslides increases with the degree of susceptibility, as expected. However, the percentage at issue in the lowest susceptibility class obtained using method-2, even if low, is higher than that obtained using method-1. This suggests that method-2, notwithstanding its major geomorphological coherence, probably still needs further refinements.     

The role of natural ecosystems and socio-economic factors in the vulnerability of coastal villages to cyclone and storm surge

Vulnerability assessment due to tropical storms has been attempted for larger spatial units, and the roles played by natural ecosystems like mangroves or hydrological variables like proximity to rivers or various socio-economic factors determining economic well-being are rarely taken into account. During cyclones, evacuation and relief works are undertaken at the village level, and thus, knowledge of relative vulnerability of the coastal villages is important to the policy makers. The paper studies 262 villages lying within a 10?km of the coast in one of the most cyclone prone districts of India and estimates the probability of expected human fatality due to severe cyclone for these villages. Such probabilities are calculated from a cyclone impact (human deaths) function where a wide range of factors including natural ecosystems are used to control for the exposure and adaptive capacity of the villages. The results show villages established in mangrove habitat areas (after clearing the forest) and those with more marginal workers (without any regular jobs) to face a very high death risk. In contrast, villages situated in the leeward side of existing mangrove forest or near a major river are seen to be facing a much lower risk of deaths. The results have important implications like conserving mangroves in cyclone-prone areas, priority evacuation of villages established in the mangrove habitat before a high-intensity cyclone, etc., for cyclone hazard management.     

Tsunami vulnerability assessment of Casablanca-Morocco using numerical modelling and GIS tools

Earthquakes and tsunamis along Morocco’s coasts have been reported since historical times. The threat posed by tsunamis must be included in coastal risk studies. This study focuses on the tsunami impact and vulnerability assessment of the Casablanca harbour and surrounding area using a combination of tsunami inundation numerical modelling, field survey data and geographic information system. The tsunami scenario used here is compatible with the 1755 Lisbon event that we considered to be the worst case tsunami scenario. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed with an adapted version of the Cornell Multigrid Coupled Tsunami Model from Cornell University. The simulation covers the eastern domain of the Azores-Gibraltar fracture zone corresponding to the largest tsunamigenic area in the North Atlantic. The proposed vulnerability model attempts to provide an insight into the tsunami vulnerability of building stock. Results in the form of a vulnerability map will be useful for decision makers and local authorities in preventing the community resiliency for tsunami hazards.     

Slope stability analysis on a regional scale using GIS: a case study from Dhading,Nepal

A spatially distributed physically based slope stability model combined with a hydrological model is presented and applied to a 350-km² area located in Dhading district, Nepal. Land slide safety factor maps are generated for five cases, including three steady state conditions assuming either completely dry soils, half saturated soils, or fully saturated soils, and two quasi-dynamic conditions, i.e. soil wetness resulting from storm events with, respectively a 2 or 25-year return period. For the quasi-dynamic cases, two methods are used, one based on accumulation of groundwater flow from upstream areas, and the other on accumulation of soil water from direct infiltration. The methodology delineates areas most prone to shallow land sliding in function of readily available data as topography, land-use and soil types. For the study area only 29% of the soils are unconditionally stable, while 25% of the soils are found to be unstable under fully saturated conditions. The comparison between the methods based on contributing area or on infiltration for quasi-dynamic conditions show that the approach based on infiltration is more reliable for the study area. The proposed methodology for predicting landslide susceptibility on a regional scale, based on basic data in GIS form, may be useful for other remote regions where detailed information is not available.