线性回归分析在邯峰矿区2~#煤层瓦斯含量预测中的应用

以邯峰矿区53个钻孔中2#煤层资料为基础数据进行线性回归分析,首先初步确定原煤水分、挥发分、灰分、煤厚、煤层倾角、埋深、顶板(岩性、厚度)和底板(岩性、厚度)等因素与煤层瓦斯含量的相关程度,并将其定量化,经一元线性拟合筛选,删除对2#煤层瓦斯含量影响较小的灰分和底板因素,对余下因素再进行多元线性拟合,建立2#煤层瓦斯含量与2#煤的水分、挥发分、埋深、煤厚、煤层倾角和顶板(岩性、厚度)的多元线性回归方程。经检验该方程较好地表达了瓦斯含量与相关因素的定量关系,预测值与实测值接近,可作为邯峰矿区预测其它钻孔2#煤层瓦斯含量的数学模型。     

Engineering-Seismological Analysis of Site Effects in the Area of Cologne

The study was implemented in the framework of the DFNK (Deutsches Forschungsnetz Naturkatastrophen – German Research Network Natural Disasters) project. The area around the city of Cologne was chosen as an object for assessment of seismic hazard and risk. A comprehensive geo-database was compiled for the area, which allows using a computational approach for analysis of site amplification functions and probable surface effects. Taking into account peculiarities of the local soil conditions, the analysis of site effects included both amplification of ground motions and liquefaction potential. These phenomena, having different nature, are interrelated and can considerably contribute to seismic hazard. This paper presents some results obtained on the base of computational analysis using geo-modeling.     

矿山开发对地质环境的影响及保护研究

黑龙江省是矿产资源大省，在开采诸如煤、金、石油、砖用粘土等矿产资源时破坏了地质环境，诱发了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、矿坑塌陷等突变性地质灾害及土地沙化、盐渍化、地面沉降等缓变性地质灾害。它们对生命财产构成严重威胁。因此，合理开发和利用矿产资源，减轻地质环境破坏程度是建设和保护地质环境的基础，是国民经济持续发展的先决条件。     

杜家台分蓄洪区分洪运用频率分析

针对汉江洪水特点和汉江中下游防洪工程系统现状，建立了计算杜家台分蓄洪区分洪运用频率的二元概率模型。建模中将控制河段上游洪峰流量和下游河流汇合处最高水位作为相互独立随机变量，通过河段安全泄量与河流汇合处水位的关系。导出了分洪洪水洪峰流量的分布函数。经验证该模型的计算结果较为满意。     

On the Importance of Geolithological Features for the Estimate of the Site Response: The Case of Catania Metropolitan Area (Italy)

The evaluation of seismic site response in the urban area of Catania was tackled by selecting test areas having peculiar lithological and structural features, potentially favourable to large local amplifications of ground motion. The two selected areas are located in the historical downtown and in the northern part of Catania where the presence of a fault is evident. Site response was evaluated using spectral ratio technique taking the horizontal- to-vertical component ratio of ambient noise. Inferences from microtremor measurements are compared with results from synthetic accelerograms and response spectra computed at all drillings available for this area. Such method is particularly suitable in urban areas where the nature of the outcropping geological units is masked by city growth and anthropic intervention on the surface geology. The microtremor H/V spectral ratios evaluated at soft sites located within the downtown profile tend to be smaller than that usually reported in the literature for such soils. A tendency for amplifications to peaks near 2 Hz is observed only in some sites located on recent alluvial deposits. Evidences for amplifications of site effects (frequency range 4–8 Hz) were observed in the sampling sites located on the fault, with a rapid decrease of spectral amplitude just a few tenths of metres away from the discontinuity. Numerical simulations evidenced the importance of geolithological features at depth levels even greater than 20–30 m. Besides this, the results strongly confirm the importance of the subsurface geological conditions, in the estimate of seismic hazard at urban scale.     

Nonlinear Analysis of Local Site Effects on Seismic Ground Response in the Bam Earthquake

The influence of local geologic and soil conditions on the intensity of ground shaking is addressed in this study. The amplification of the ground motion due to local site effects resulted in severe damage to dwellings in the Bam area during the 2003 Bam Earthquake. A unique set of strong motion acceleration recordings was obtained at the Bam accelerograph station. Although the highest peak ground acceleration recorded was the vertical component (nearly 1 g), the longitudinal component (fault-parallel motion) clearly had the largest maximum velocity as well as maximum ground displacement. Subsurface geotechnical and geophysical (down-hole) data in two different sites have been obtained and used to estimate the local site condition on earthquake ground motion in the area. The ground response analyses have been conducted considering the nonlinear behavior of the soil deposits using both equivalent linear and nonlinear approaches. The fully nonlinear method embodied in FLAC was used to evaluate the nonlinear soil properties on earthquake wave propagation through the soil layer, and compare with the response from the equivalent linear approach. It is shown that thick alluvium deposits amplified the ground motion and resulted in significant damage in residential buildings in the earthquake stricken region. The comparison of results indicated similar response spectra of the motions for both equivalent and nonlinear analyses, showing peaks in the period range of 0.3–1.5 s. However, the amplification levels of nonlinear analysis were less than the equivalent linear method especially in long periods. The observed response spectra are shown to be above the NEHRP building code design requirements, especially at high frequencies.     

线性工程建设对地下水流场的影响分析

出于降低高速公路坡度的目的, 团结桥连接线高速公路路基开挖在Ⅱ级阶地前缘处排水盲沟最大开挖段基本将原来连续的天然含水层切穿, 导致地下水排泄基准面下降, 使得地下水流场发生改变, 部分民井出现水位下降或干涸现象. 得出路基开挖排水是导致工程区附近地下水含水层结构及流场改变、 水位下降或局部疏干的主要原因.     

北京延庆新城规划区场地动力响应数值模拟

在地震多发的中国内陆环境下,场地稳定性评价越来越引起重视。为了研究北京延庆新城规划区大型场地动力响应特征,在分析延庆新城规划区第四纪覆盖层和断裂的空间分布规律基础上,基于数值模拟方法,运用有限差分数值模拟软件FLAC3D建立了规划区三维仿真模型,并对新城规划区场地动力响应进行了仿真,最后通过定义场地速度响应系数来刻画场地动力响应特征。结果表明：对于“土岩组合”的典型场地,在低频剪切波的激励下,第四纪覆盖层的厚度将引起不同程度的场地速度响应,第四纪覆盖层越厚,场地速度响应系数越大,动力放大程度越高;对于下伏断裂的复杂场地,剪切波传播路径变得极其复杂,断裂对地表速度响应系数有放大作用,放大程度与断裂分布形式和发展规模有关。     

基于多元线性回归的甘池泉流量 对降水响应特征分析

以房山长沟镇甘池泉流量为研究对象,采用多元线性回归方法,分析泉流量-降水的响应特征。自相关性及互相关性分析结果表明,泉流量对降水表现为短期滞时(快速响应)和长期滞时(5~6个月)。建立大气降水-泉流量的多元线性回归模型,将输出结果与实测过程曲线相拟合,纳什效率系数NSE为0.72,表明建模效果较好。经分析,所建模型用于4个月之内的泉流量预测较为可靠。结合甘池泉域含水层特性分析,泉流量在降水后产生快速响应,其径流主要来自于表层岩溶带裂隙水流;而5~6个月的长滞时响应来源于深远部岩溶带裂隙水流。     

The Study on Application of the Audio Frequency Magnetotelluric Method in Azelik Area of Niger

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浙江省江山市城区建筑场地类型初析

在简要阐述浙江省江山市城区地质背景的基础上，划分了城区建筑场地的类型，并提出了场地客级的一些初步意见。     

庞庄煤矿老采区场地稳定性评价及环境影响分析

基于构造地质、地层岩性、地震、水文地质、岩土工程地质条件分析,以及庞庄煤矿老采区煤层开采资料分析,应用残余变形概率积分法,预测计算了庞庄煤矿工业广场的地表残余变形,评价了其场地稳定性,并分析了庞庄煤矿开采对环境地质的影响。庞庄煤矿开采对地质环境的影响特别重大,其影响主要表现为包括原始地形地貌、地表水、工程地质和水文地质条件的破坏。庞庄煤矿工业广场的最大残余变形量拐点连线(计算边界)处最大残余倾斜值im=3.02~3.28 mm/m > 3.0mm/m,残余倾斜(im)可能对拟建工程局部构成危害。笔者将拟建工程区的地质灾害危险性划分为3 个区。Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区分别为危险性小区和危险性中等区,为适宜和基本适宜场地;Ⅲ区危险性大,场地适宜性差,需地基工程治理。评价工作为徐矿集团华美2×300MW(CFB)机组工程机组建设工程提供了场地安全保证,同时,为合理利用宝贵的庞庄煤矿工业广场土地资源,提高土地综合利用率,提供了坚实依据。     

New Generation of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for the Area Cologne/Aachen Considering the Uncertainties of the Input Data

A new earthquake catalogue for central, northern and northwestern Europe with unified M_w magnitudes, in part derived from chi-square maximum likelihood regressions, forms the basis for seismic hazard calculations for the Lower Rhine Embayment. Uncertainties in the various input parameters are introduced, a detailed seismic zonation is performed and a recently developed technique for maximum expected magnitude estimation is adopted and quantified. Applying the logic tree algorithm, resulting hazard values with error estimates are obtained as fractile curves (median, 16% and 84% fractiles and mean) plotted for pga (peak ground acceleration; median values for Cologne 0.7 and 1.2 m/s² for probabilities of exceedence of 10% and 2%, respectively, in 50 years), 0.4 s (0.8 and 1.5 m/s²) and 1.0 s (0.3 and 0.5 m/s²) pseudoacclerations, and intensity (I₀ = 6.5 and 7.2). For the ground motion parameters, rock foundation is assumed. For the area near Cologne and Aachen, maps show the median and 84% fractile hazard for 2% probability of exceedence in 50 years based on pga (maximum median value about 1.5 m/s²), and 0.4 s (>2 m/s²) and 1.0 s (about 0.8 m/s²) pseudoaccelerations, all for rock. The pga 84% fractile map also has a maximum value above 2 m/s² and shows similarities with the median map for 0.4 s. In all maps, the maximum values fall within the area 6.2–6.3° E and 50.8–50.9° N, i.e., east of Aachen.     

基于RecurDyn的极地冰下基岩取心钻具反扭装置的运动仿真及运动分析

在极地钻探技术领域中,铠装电缆式电动机械取心钻具应用广泛,优化、设计可靠的反扭装置,提高其反扭力矩,是冰下基岩电动机械取心钻具钻进成功的关键所在。为了分析反扭装置的全部性能,提出了基于数字化虚拟样机RecurDyn的仿真方法。反扭装置的组成机构是平面六杆机构,在RecurDyn中导入由inventor软件建立的反扭装置几何模型进行运动仿真及分析。介绍了利用RecurDyn软件来实现平面六杆机构（反扭装置）运动仿真及分析的方法和步骤。以反扭装置作为研究对象,在RecurDyn/post模块中,用动画来表现反扭装置的运动过程,用图表来反映运动仿真的结果。仿真的结果证明反扭装置设计的科学性、合理性以及实用性,可以实现预定位置变化,满足极地钻探中平衡钻进的要求。     

流场分析法在矿区水文地质工作中的应用

阐述了流场分析法在查明矿区水文地质边界的水力性质,含水介质的结构特征及地下水补给,径流和排泄条件中的应用。并以蔚县矿区为例,对大抽水前后的天然流场和人工流场进行了分析,确认了介的水质,强径流速年位置及岩溶水的补给来源。     

暴雨频率分布线型优选方法的研究

本文将四阶线性矩检验法引入暴雨频率分布线型的选择,分析四阶线性矩检验法作为暴雨频率分布线型的选择准则的适用性,并与国内外其他4种常用的选优统计量得出的结果进行比较.四阶线性矩检验法的结果表明三参数的对数正态分布与各流域的实测暴雨资料拟合最好,这与其他4种方法的结论基本一致,很好地鏊别了暴雨频率的分布线型,四阶线性矩检验法可以作为检验暴雨频率分布线型选择的方法,四阶线性矩检验法扩展了暴雨线型检验的方法.     

达州市韩家坝教育园拟建场区适宜性研究

研究了达州市韩家坝教育园区拟建场区的地质环境条件和地质灾害危险性现状,作出了地质灾害危险性预测,提出了拟建场区适宜性研究结论、地质灾害防治措施及建议.     

发震断层对微、宏观震中偏离的影响分析:以新疆地区为例

大量震例表明通常情况下地震的微、宏观震中有很大的偏离,如何在震后快速正确估计微、宏观震中偏离的程度,是目前迫切需要解决的重要问题。以新疆地区为例,详细研究了新疆地区M s≥6.5级的历史地震微、宏观震中偏离与发震构造的空间分布关系。新疆地区主要的发震断层类型包括逆断层、逆冲走滑断层及走滑断层3种。针对不同的发震断层类型初步提出了根据发震构造快速估计6.5级以上强震微、宏观震中偏离的模型和方法。微、宏观震中偏离的理想方向取决于破裂的性质(如单侧破裂、双侧破裂),很难确定理想宏观震中在发震断层的确切位置,具有一定的随机性,但是地震微、宏观震中的偏离方向与新疆整体构造应力方向具有一致性,宏观震中位置一般位于发震断层上或其附近,在实际应用过程中可以认为宏观震中就在断层上。     

Paleostress and Fluid Pressure Analysis of Vein Opening Using 3D Mohr Circle from the Quartz Vein Orientation Data of the South Delhi Terrane,Ambaji Area,NW India

Geotectonics - In many instances the sulphide mineralization is associated with quartz vein-related hydrothermal alteration zone. The syntectonic quartz veins display preferred orientation as their...