中国乡制的世纪变迁——乡（镇）制丛谈之一

在20世纪中，中国乡制经历了曲折的发展路径。仅从乡的规模而言，就经过了三个循环、七个阶段。从上个世纪初年在县下建立城镇乡制，到20年代末的《县组织法》规定在区下实施村里制(后改称乡镇制)，再到30年代末“新县制”撤区重建大乡制，是20世纪乡制发展的第一循环。从40年     

未来乡制的选择——乡（镇）制丛谈之三

在哪个层级和多大范围设置农村基层政权的问题，上个世纪已经有过太多的探索与实验。从清末的城镇乡自治到袁世凯的区自治，从阎锡山的村制到“新县制”的乡镇法人，从20世纪50年代初的小乡(行政村)制到80年代中期的大乡(镇)制，经历了一个世纪的反复才逐渐稳定下来的现行乡镇体制，目前仍然受到广泛的批评。对于21世纪中国农村基层政权或者说社区自治体的建制设计，徐勇、温铁军、党国英等著名农村问题专家有着各不相同的建议。这些建议中都有非常可贵的成分，但也有笔者不能苟同的地方。下面将对它们逐一加以评论，与各位同仁商榷。     

中国交通CO2排放时空格局演变及其影响因素——基于2000~2012年30个省（市）面板数据的分析

通过构建交通CO₂排放模型对2000~2012年中国30个省（市）的交通CO₂排放时空演变特征进行了分析。并采取“由大到小”逐步回归的建模方式,在传统的固定效应模型（面板数据模型）基础上引入时间固定效应,构建了双向固定效应模型对中国交通CO₂排放的社会经济、城市形态、交通发展等方面的影响因素进行研究。结果表明：2000~2012年期间,中国交通CO₂排放总量和人均交通CO₂排放量分别以9.29%和8.69%的年均增速增长,前者的区域差异呈先增后减趋势,后者的区域差异则首先呈周期性波动,而后一直保持减少趋势。人均GDP和城镇居民家庭人均可支配收入对人均交通CO₂排放具有显著的正向效应,表明社会经济发展和居民收入水平提高是交通CO₂排放增长的主要驱动因素。城市人口密度对交通CO₂排放亦具有显著的正向效应,这意味着未来中国应加强对城市人口密度的规划控制,以避免因人口过度集聚而额外增加产生交通CO₂排放。公共交通发展水平对交通CO₂排放增长具有显著的负向效应,但小汽车拥有率对交通CO₂排放的影响并不显著。     

中国流动人口空间格局的演变特征、形成机制及城镇化效应——基于2000和2010年人口普查分县数据的分析（英文）

China has witnessed unprecedented urbanization over the past decades.The rapid expansion of urban population has been dominantly contributed by the floating population from rural areas,of which the spatiotemporal patterns,driving forces,and multidimensional effects are scrutinized and evaluated in this study by using the latest national censuses conducted in 2000 and 2010.Analysis based on the county-level data comes to conclusions as follows.The spatial pattern of floating population has remained stable over the first decade of the new century.The top 1%cities with the largest floating population received 45.5% of all migrants in China.As the rapid development of mega-city regions,the coastal concentration areas of floating population tended to geographically united as a whole,whereas the spatial distribution of migrants within each region varied significantly.The migrant concentration area in the Yangtze River Delta was the largest and its expansion was also the most salient.However,the floating population has growingly moved into provincial capitals and other big cities in the inland regions and its gravity center has moved northward for around 110 km during the study period.The spatial pattern of floating population has been formed jointly by the state and market forces in transitional China and the impacts of state forces have been surpassed by those of market forces in the country as a whole.The attractiveness of coastal cities and counties to the floating population comes mainly from the nonagricultural employment opportunities and public services,reflecting that long-distance and long-term migrants have moved coastward not only to gain employment but also to enjoy city life.By contrast,in the central and western regions,places with a higher economic development level and at a higher administrative level are more attractive to floating populations,demonstrating that the state remains to play an important role in allocating economic resources and promoting regional development in inland China.As the main body of new urban residents,the floating population has contributed substantially to the elevation of the urbanization levels of migrant-sending and-receiving places,by 20.0% nd 49.5% respectively.Compared with extensively investigated interprovincial migrants,intra-provincial migrants have higher intention and ability to permanently live in cities and thus might become the main force of China’s urbanization in the coming decades.The internal migration has also reshaped China’s urban system in terms of its hierarchical organization and spatial structure.