Water wars in the Middle East: a looming threat

This paper explains how hydropolitical dynamics and spatial variables almost triggered a water war between Israel and Lebanon because the latter was building a pump on the Wazzani Spring, a tributary of the Jordan River. The convergence of a regional drought, history of violent confrontations between the two riparians, distrust, varying development needs and territorial disputes almost culminated in a war between these east Mediterranean neighbours. While most international water disputes in the Middle East will be resolved peacefully, some are likely to trigger violent confrontations threatening political stability in the Middle East in the next few decades.     

试论新世纪初地缘视觉中的以色列

新世纪之初，世人瞩目的阿以和平谈判破裂，中东和平进程再次陷入僵局，进而出现了严重的后退。相应地中东地区的地缘政治经济形势和格局也发生了改变。本文从地缘角度出发，分析了以色列在中东地缘格局中的地位和新世纪初以色列的地缘形势新特点，提出了以色列在新世纪初应该采取的地缘政治、地缘经济和地缘空间战略。     

振兴阿拉伯的五大调水工程

介绍了旨在彻底解决阿拉伯世界缺水问题的五大工程构想,并从国际关系的角度探讨了这些工程的可行性,尤其是的这此工程与阿以和谈、解除对伊制裁等世人瞩目的国际热点问题联系起来探讨,干旱缺水乃是阿拉伯国家的自然条件中最大的不利因素,文中介绍的这些调水构想实际上构成了阿拉伯民族走向繁荣昌盛的一个总体规划。     

简论以色列的区域环境合作开发战略

随着经济发展和人口的增加,环境与资源问题在中东国家日益普遍和突出。环境问题的根源及其影响超越了国界,环境问题也必须国际合作才能解决,这对以色列所在的东地中海地区特别重要。东地中海国家开展环境治理和管理的合作不但符合该地区社会经济的可持续发展要求,也是促进和巩固中东政治和平的重要手段。本文分析了以色列政府1996年1月提出的《区域环境合作和发展选择》文件的基本框架和内容,指出：这个规划对区域经济合作具有宏观指导意义和操作意义,更是新时期以色列抢占中东经济高地的一个前瞻性战略,将对中东的政治经济新格局产生深远的影响。     

约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘环境研究

随着气候变化、人口增长和经济发展,全球水资源供需矛盾日益突出,国际河流跨境水冲突不断加剧。地处中东的约旦河是世界上跨境水冲突最严重的河流。1948—2008年约旦河跨境水冲突事件数量占全球总量的1/5,战争性跨境水冲突数量占同级别总量的2/3。本文以地缘价值、地缘关系和地缘结构为模块构建国际河流跨境水冲突地缘环境分析框架,考察约旦河跨境水冲突事件的时空演化及其形成的地缘机制。研究发现,约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘目标集中于水资源战略要地,且按水资源地“主要→核心→次要”空间转移;跨境水冲突事件在时序上呈现从以色列争夺水权为主向域内阿拉伯国家讨还水权为主演化;跨境水冲突地缘体结构中以色列主动发起的跨境水冲突占六成多,域内阿拉伯国家和域外地缘体发起的各约占二成。基于地缘环境分析框架的研究得出以下结论：约旦河流域区位的地缘价值吸引域外大国直接介入,促成跨境水冲突向有利于美国—以色列利益的方向发展;域内地缘体的“水资源地”竞争地缘关系强于“水量”竞争地缘关系,对约旦河跨境水冲突具有强化作用;以色列作为约旦河地缘结构中的水霸权,对该流域跨境水冲突的基本态势和时空分布格局具有主导作用。     

简论90年代以色列的经济政策

现代以色列经济是外向型经济。90年代以来,中东和平进程在前进,以色列经济在发展,工党政府和利库德集团政府都把进一步改革开放、奠定以色列的中东经济强国地位作为主要目标,为此,制定了推进私有化、吸引外资、扩大对外贸易的政策以及一系列相关政策,对以色列经济的现状和将来有着重大影响,也对中东区域经济的发展有着促进作用,同时也存在着某些问题。     

“两河”流域的水资源与地缘政治

近年来,国际上和国内相继出现了一个流行的说法:由于中东水资源短缺和人口迅速增长,各国间水资源矛盾日趋尖锐,因而很可能在不久的将来因争夺水资源而爆发战争。该种说法值得商榷。对两河流域和有关各国的水资源现状和近年来该地区地缘政治的一些方面进行了具体分析,指出:有关各国的水资源并不十分短缺,而且存在着节水的巨大潜力；有关各国将会在水资源上继续采取合作和妥协的态度,不会使矛盾激化到为此而发生战争的程度。     

地缘政治视角下“伊斯兰国”兴起后的两伊关系变化探究

历经“阿拉伯之春”后,中东多国在动荡与冲突中难以自拔,而反政府武装组织“伊斯兰国”却趁机兴风作浪。“伊斯兰国”的肆虐不仅使得中东地区的地缘政治格局更复杂,也给世界和平的维护带来了巨大挑战。“伊斯兰国”长期活跃在伊拉克-叙利亚边境地带,它的兴起将会对平淡的两伊关系带来重要变数。论文从地缘政治的视角归纳了IS兴起后两伊关系在宗教、经济、外交、军事等四大方面的变化,并指出中东地缘政治格局变化是促使两国关系变化的根本原因。“伊斯兰国”兴起后两伊关系迅速改善,促进中东三大地缘集团鼎立新格局的形成,也引起域外各国势力的政策变化。     

中东水问题成因、合作与冲突

中东战略位置重要、石油资源丰富但水资源短缺,常常被人们形容为“干旱的宝地”。水问题不仅严重制约着该地区的经济发展和社会进步,而且同该地区错综复杂的民族矛盾、边界纠纷、领土争端和教派分歧等紧紧纠缠在一起,形成一枚随时被引爆的炸弹,时刻威胁着该地区的政治稳定,不断影响着该地区的外交和国际关系,使一触即发的中东局势火上加油。因此,西方国家、尤其是北大西洋公约组织已将中东水问题作为重大军事战略问题来研究。本文初步分析了中东水问题的成因、简要介绍了几种解决措施,并基本澄清了有关问题。     

THE WATER RESOURCES IN THE EUPHRATES RIVER AND THE TIGRIS RIVER VALLEYS AND POLITICAL RELATION BETWEEN COUNTRIES CONCERNED

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1970-2015年中东地区恐怖袭击事件的时空特征分析

中东作为恐怖活动的多发区域,了解其恐怖袭击的时空特征对恐怖活动治理具有重要意义。基于GTD的恐怖袭击事件空间分布数据,运用GIS空间分析方法对中东地区1970—2015年袭击事件的时空特征进行了探索,研究发现：恐怖组织偏好在边境区域活动,超过50%的袭击事件发生在距边界15km的范围内,约80%的袭击事件位于距边界35km范围内;恐怖袭击重心呈现出一定的空间迁移特征,主要分布于伊拉克、叙利亚、黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦、约旦和以色列等西亚地区,重心的变化与地区之间的武装冲突、战争等具有空间上的关联性;历年的恐怖袭击形成了涉及伊拉克、伊朗、土耳其、以色列、约旦河西岸和加沙地带、黎巴嫩和阿尔及利亚的三处主要集聚区,同时集聚区伴随时间推移发生变化,各时间段的主、次集聚区分布于12个国家与地区,且恐怖主义活动表现出愈发激烈的趋势;恐怖袭击总体上存在显著的空间相关性,在不同时间段内,“高-高”聚类地区具有一定的空间分异性,但恐怖袭击的空间集聚现象愈加明显。     

Water resource conflicts in the Middle East

This article discusses the causes and sources of water resource conflict in the 3 major international river basins of the Middle East: the Tigris-Euphrates, the Nile, and the Jordan-Yarmuk. The physical geography of the Middle East is arid due to descending air, northeast trade winds, the southerly location, and high evaporation rates. Only Turkey, Iran, and Lebanon have adequate rainfall for population needs. Their mountainous geography and more northerly locations intercept rain and snow bearing westerly winds in winter. Parts of every other country are vulnerable to water shortages. Rainfall is irregular. Water resource conflicts are due to growing populations, economic development, rising standards of living, technological developments, political fragmentation, and poor water management. Immigration to the Jordan-Yarmuk watershed has added to population growth in this location. Over 50% of the population in the Middle East lives in urban areas where populations consume 10-12 times more water than those in rural areas. Water is wasted in irrigation schemes and huge dams with reservoirs where increased evaporation occurs. Technology results in greater water extraction of shallow groundwater and pollution of rivers and aquifers. British colonial government control led to reduced friction in most of the Nile basin. Now all ethnic groups have become more competitive and nationalistic. The Cold War restrained some of the conflict. Israel obtains 40% of its water from aquifers beneath the West Bank and Gaza. Geopolitical factors determine the mutual goodwill in managing international water. The 3 major water basins in the Middle East pose the greatest risk of water disputes. Possible solutions include conservation, better management, prioritizing uses, technological solutions, increased cooperation among co-riparians, developing better and enforceable international water laws, and reducing population growth rates.     

长江经济带东中西部地区经济发展不平衡的现状,问题及对策研究

本文通过对长江沿江经济带东、中、西部地区经济发展不平衡的现状、形成原因及未来发展趋势的详细分析,深入探讨了长江沿江经济带东、中、西部地区经济发展不平衡性所带来的问题,并在些基础上,应用Ｇ．迈尔的回程效果理论,提出了改善和最终解决上述问题的对策性意见。     

以色列荒漠开发的经验及其对宁夏发展的启示

在特殊的国际政治环境中 ,以色列狭小贫瘠的国土与快速的人口增长过程构成了复杂的人地关系矛盾。但它依靠先进的水资源开发利用技术 ,重视科学技术在荒漠开发中的应用 ,建立现代市场农业 ,创建文明有序的社会组织 ,成功地开发了荒漠。宁夏与以色列有许多相似之处。因此结合本地特点 ,借鉴以色列荒漠开发的经验 ,对宁夏发展具有现实的指导意义。     

SPATIAL PATTERNS OF SUPPORT FOR A NUCLEAR WEAPONS FREEZE*

Support for a Freeze on nuclear weapons is greatest in the East with pockets of support in the Middle West and Pacific Coast States. Factors influencing the spatial pattern are Walker's innovativeness rankings, the number of peace/Freeze activist groups and the pattern of defense employment.     

Problems in revegetation from seed of rangelands on calcareous silty clay soils in Jordan

A major obstacle in the rehabilitation of degraded rangelands in Jordan, and the Middle East in general, is poor regeneration from seed. In laboratory, greenhouse, and field experiments, indigenous plant species' seeds tolerated mannitol-induced water stress better than the seeds of introduced plant species. Germination and plant establishment were lower in a silty clay soft compared to peatmoss; seedlings could not penetrate the hard surface layer of the silty clay. Plant regeneration from seed in arid calcareous silty clay rangelands was better when protected from grazing; it was very slow due to surface crusting, low soil moisture content and high soil temperature which prevailed most parts of the year. Contour planting with water harvesting are possible solutions to poor plant establishment.     

The geography of water conflict and cooperation: internal pressures and international manifestations

Studies on transboundary water conflict and cooperation generally consider interstate relations over shared water resources as distinct from intrastate relations. While connections have been made between international water relations and regional relationships in general, it is conceivable that international water conflict and cooperation may also be influenced by domestic water events and vice versa. This paper seeks to investigate the dynamics of water interactions across geographic scale and their relationship to broader international affairs. The research approach involves the creation of an analytical framework for assessing possible linkages between external and internal interactions over freshwater resources. The framework is applied to three case studies – the Middle East, South Asia and Southern Africa – utilizing 'event data'. To validate the findings from the quantitative analyses, the results are compared with conventional qualitative understandings of water and overall relations in the three regions. The comparison demonstrates not only the efficacy of the analytical framework in general, but also highlights, at least in terms of the specific case studies selected, the disparate water dynamics across geographic regions and the importance of considering water events, both national and international, within larger political and historical contexts.     

Far beyond the Gulf: the implications of warfare for Asian labour migration

The implications of the Gulf War are assessed for the countries in Asia that send labor migrants to the Middle East. "This paper seeks to examine the effects of...the loss of remittances (and related issues, including return migration), primarily in terms of the long-term implications of the War for the future of contract labour migration in the Asian region...."     

透视伊拉克的地缘政治

伊拉克共和国地处亚、欧、非三大洲的结合部,是广大中东干旱缺水地区中的一块最大的绿洲,自古以来就是中东的心脏,地理位置非常重要。在近代,伊拉克发现了丰富的石油,更使之成为世界列强的争夺之地。2003年3月20日上午10时35分,在全球各国无数人的关注之下,伊拉克战争全面打响了。本文从政治地理的角度对伊拉克的位置、民族宗教与地缘政治的关系,以及未来中东地区的地缘政治结构进行了系统分析,供关心伊拉克战争的同仁参考。