T年重现期波高的最大熵估计

本文在最大熵原则的基础上,通过解一条件变分问题,导出一种由观测数据估计T年（常用的有50a或100a）重现期波高的新方法.本文导出的概率密度函数为f4（H）=αH^γe^-βH4,式中参量α、β、γ可以由年极值波高H的1～4阶分布矩（Hm^-,m=1,2,3,4）显式地表示出来.其具有如下的优越性：（1）参量中包含了H的3阶和4阶分布矩,适用于描述不确定性很大的海浪的重现期波高;（2）符合最大熵原则,即其信息熵最大,从而特别适用于重现期波高的估计;（3）形式简单且其参量容易由已知观测数据确定,便于理论和实际应用.作者对两个水文观测站的实测数据,分别使用该方法,及一些现有常用的方法计算其50、100a重现期波高.比较计算结果表明该方法非常接近于皮尔逊-Ⅲ方法和龚贝尔方法的结果.     

最大熵原理应用于海浪波高分布的研究

利用最大熵原理从理论上推导出波高的最大熵分布,在此基础上研究了状态参量对波高分布和波高熵的影响。影响最大熵分布的因子是平均波高和状态参量,不同海况对应的状态参量是不同的。利用波高实测资料,得出3种不同海况下的最大熵分布,通过比较发现最大熵分布很好地符合实测数据。把最大熵分布与目前广泛应用的瑞利分布作了比较,结果表明,最大熵分布有2个优点：没有对波高作出任何限制性假定和能够描述不同海况下的波高分布。     

Application of Maximum Entropy Principle to Studying the Distribution of Wave Heights in A Random Wave Field

Based on the maximum entropy principle, a probability density function (PDF) is derived for the distribution of wave heights in a random wave field, without any more hypothesis. The present PDF, being a non-Rayleigh fonu, involves two parameters: the average wave height H^- and the state parameter γ. The role of γ in the distribution of wave heights is examined. It is found that γ may be a certain measure of sea state. A least square method for determining γ from measured data is proposed. In virtue of the method, the values of γ are determined for three sea states from the data measured in the East China Sea. The present PDF is compared with the well known Rayleigh PDF of wave height and it is shown that it much better fits the data than the Rayleigh PDF. It is expected that the present PDF would fit some other wave variables, since its derivation is not restricted only to the wave height.     

A New Maximum Entropy Probability Function for the Surface Elevation of Nonlinear Sea Waves

Based on the maximum entropy principle a new probability density function （PDF） f（x） for the surface elevation of nonlinear sea waves, X, is derived through performing a coordinate transform of X and solving a variation problem subject to three constraint conditions of f（ x ）. Compared with the maximum entropy PDFs presented previously, the new PDF has the following merits： （1） it has four parameters to be determined and hence can give more refined fit to observed data and has wider suitability for nonlinear waves in different conditions; （2） these parameters are expressed in terms of distribution moments of X in a relatively simple form and hence are easy to be determined from observed data; （3） the PDF is free of the restriction of weak nonlinearity and possible to be used for sea waves in complicated conditions, such as those in shallow waters with complicated topography; and （4） the PDF is simple in form and hence convenient for theoretical and practical uses. l.aboratory wind-wave experiments have been conducted to test the competence of the new PDF for the surface elevation of nonlinear waves. The experimental results manifest that the new PDF gives somewhat better fit to the laboratory wind-wave data than the well-known Gram-Charlier PDF and beta PDF.     

Application of Maximum Entropy Distribution to the Statistical Properties of Wave Groups

The new distributions of the statistics of wave groups based on the maximum entropy principle are presented.The maximum entropy distributions appear to be superior to conventional distributions when applied to a limited amount of information.Its applications to the wave group properties show the effectiveness of the maximum entropy distribution.FFT filtering method is employed to obtain the wave envelope fast and efficiently.Comparisons of both the maximum entropy distribution and the distribution of Longuet-Higgins(1984) with the laboratory wind-wave data show that the former gives a better fit     

Surface Elevation Distribution of Sea Waves Based on the Maximum Entropy Principle

A probability density function of surface elevation is obtained through improvement of the method introduced by Cieslikiewicz who employed the maximum entropy principle to investigate the surface elevation distribution. The density function can be easily extended to higher order according to demand and is non-negative everywhere, satisfying the basic behavior of the probability. Moreover because the distribution is derived without any assumption about sea waves, it is found from comparison with several accepted distributions that the new form of distribution can be applied in a wider range of wave conditions. In addition, the density function can be used to fit some observed distributions of surface vertical acceleration although something remains unsolved.     

基于最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵的海表温度融合方法研究

海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)是影响全球气候的重要因素,在海洋科学研究中占有关键位置。论文基于MODIS红外、AMSR-2和HY-2A微波辐射计数据,分别利用最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵方法对SST数据进行融合,并用i Quam实测数据和Argo浮标数据对2015年SST融合数据进行检验。MODIS、AMSR-2、HY-2A辐射计SST的年平均空间覆盖率分别为15.0%,21.6%,22.0%,最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵融合SST产品的年平均空间覆盖率提高到98.6%和99.4%,融合产品空间覆盖率明显提高。与i Quam实测数据对比,最优插值和贝叶斯最大熵融合产品年平均偏差分别为0.07℃,0.04℃,均方根误差皆为0.78℃,其中3-7月最优插值融合产品的精度略优于贝叶斯最大熵融合产品,其它月份则相反;与Argo浮标数据对比,两种融合产品的均值偏差分别为0.06℃,0.01℃,均方根误差分别为0.77℃,0.75℃。整体上,贝叶斯最大熵融合产品的精度略优于最优插值融合产品,但计算成本较高。     

Maximum entropy estimation of directional wave spectra from an array of wave probes

A procedure for estimating directional wave spectra from an array of wave probes based on the Maximum Entropy Method (MEM) is developed in the present paper. The MEM approach yields an angular spreading function at each frequency band consistent with the input cross-spectral density matrix. The method is evaluated using numerical simulations of directional sea states. The MEM is also used to analyze data obtained from the three-dimensional wave basin of the Hydraulics Laboratory, National Research Council of Canada. Finally, the MEM is compared with the Maximum Likelihood Method (MLM) and is shown to be a powerful tool for directional wave analysis.     

Application of Linear Mean-Square Estimation in Ocean Engineering

The attempt to obtain long-term observed data around some sea areas we concern is usually very hard or even impossible in practical offshore and ocean engineering situations. In this paper, by means of linear mean-square estimation method, a new way to extend short-term data to long-term ones is developed. The long-term data about concerning sea areas can be constructed via a series of long-term data obtained from neighbor oceanographic stations, through relevance analysis of different data series. It is effective to cover the insufficiency of time series prediction method’s overdependence upon the length of data series, as well as the limitation of variable numbers adopted in multiple linear regression model. The storm surge data collected from three oceanographic stations located in Shandong Peninsula are taken as examples to analyze the number-selection effect of reference oceanographic stations (adjacent to the concerning sea area) and the correlation coefficients between sea sites which are selected for reference and for engineering projects construction respectively. By comparing the N-year return-period values which are calculated from observed raw data and processed data which are extended from finite data series by means of the linear mean-square estimation method, one can draw a conclusion that this method can give considerably good estimation in practical ocean engineering, in spite of different extreme value distributions about raw and processed data.     

海水中铜离子对氨基酸—粘土体系液—固界面作用的影响

用Ｅ（％）－ｐＨ曲线法实验研究了海水中三元表面络合物的形成和构型。通过海水中金属铜离子对氨基酸—粘土界面作用的Ｅ（％）－ｐＨ曲线影响的研究,发现曲线具有“单向上移”的规律,表明甘氨酸、天冬氨酸—铜离子—高岭土三元体系在实验条件下主要形成（Ⅰ）型三元表面络合物即≡Ｓ—Ｏ—Ｍ—Ｌ。该系列论文另一部分已研究氨基酸对金属离子—粘土体系的影响,证明可形成（Ⅱ）型三元表面络合物即≡Ｓ—Ｏ—Ｌ—Ｍ。据此可以推测（Ⅰ）型和（Ⅱ）型在某一条件下可以转变构型,其中间构型可能即是Ｌｅｃｋｉｅ等提出的环形三元表面络合物。     

Estimation of Extreme Coastal Wave Heights from Time Series of Wave Data

1.IntroductionLarge coastal stormor extreme waves cancause direct damagetocoastal structures,severelyerodesandy beaches andinundate coastal land,resultingin damage to coastal environment(You and Lord,2006).Large coastal stormwaves alsocause extensive sedi…     

Directional spread parameter at intermediate water depth

The characteristics of directional spread parameters at intermediate water depth are investigated based on a cosine power ‘2s' directional spreading model. This is based on wave measurements carried out using a Datawell directional waverider buoy in 23 m water depth. An empirical equation for the frequency dependent directional spreading parameter is presented. Directional spreading function estimated based on the Maximum Entropy Method is compared with those obtained using a cosine power ‘2s' parameter model. A set of empirical equations relating the directional spreading parameter corresponding to the peak of wave spectrum to other wave parameters like significant wave height and period are obtained. It shows that the wave directional spreading at peak wave frequency can be related to the non-linearity parameter, which allows estimation of directional spreading without reference to wind information.     

An improved ‘Battjes’ method for predicting the probability of extreme waves

The Battjes method for predicting the 50 or 100-year design wave was developed to allow for the possibility that the highest wave in a 50 or 100 year period may occur during the second highest storm or even in lower storms. It uses the probability distribution of individual waves. It is first shown that a slightly different logical approach removes some of the problems encountered with the use of the method. It is then shown that it actually uses a different definition of return period to that used by the classic method because if two or more waves in a severe storm exceed H₅₀, then these are counted as separate events. A formula is developed which considers each storm as one event, but still takes account of the possibility of the highest wave in 50 years not coming from the most severe storm. Computation using this formula shows that it reduces H₅₀ by about 3% relative to the Battjes method.     

辽东东探区温带气旋风暴减水重现值估计

基于辽东东探区1966—2007年出现的76次温带气旋减水过程,对10个工程地点抽取了10个统计样本。考虑每年温带气旋出现频次的影响,使用泊松最大熵分布对其进行减水的长期统计分析。得到100年一遇和50年一遇最大幅度的减水重现值分别为304和286cm。由于受地形的影响,北部海域的减水幅度大于南部区域。     

基于最大熵原理的非瑞利海浪波高的统计分布

本论文在最大熵原理的基础上,通过解一个条件变分问题导出一种适用于描述非瑞利海浪波高H统计分布的概率密度函数fn(H)=αHre-βHn,用实验室风浪槽中不同风速下和不同风区处实测的36组风浪波高数据对上述概率密度函数进行验证,并与至今仍被广泛应用的瑞利波高概率密度函数加以比较.结果显示瑞利概率密度函数显著地偏离实验数据,而上述概率密度函数则与各组实测波高分布均符合良好.     

A maximum-entropy compound distribution model for extreme wave heights of typhoon-affected sea areas

A new compound distribution model for extreme wave heights of typhoon-affected sea areas is proposed on the basis of the maximum-entropy principle.The new model is formed by nesting a discrete distribution in a continuous one,having eight parameters which can be determined in terms of observed data of typhoon occurrence-frequency and extreme wave heights by numerically solving two sets of equations derived in this paper.The model is examined by using it to predict the N-year return-period wave height at two hydrology stations in the Yellow Sea,and the predicted results are compared with those predicted by use of some other compound distribution models.Examinations and comparisons show that the model has some advantages for predicting the N-year return-period wave height in typhoon-affected sea areas.     

滨海核电可能最大台风浪的推算

采用当前国际流行的第三代波浪模式SWAN探讨了滨海核电工程可能最大台风浪的计算,并分析了可能最大台风浪与相伴随的可能最大风暴潮成长规律.分析得可能最大台风浪通常滞后可能最大风暴潮增水峰值,推算得到的可能最大台风浪高于遮浪海洋站观测到的最大波高,为滨海核电工程可能最大台风浪的推算提供参考.     

岛屿轮廓数据的熵信息研究

从岛屿轮廓数据的形状特征、几何度量（面积、周长）和岛屿群的分布情况三个角度,结合熵信息的有关定义,给出三种关于岛屿图斑的熵定义方式和计算结果,最后给出一个在聚类问题中的应用实例,说明了这三种熵的应用价值,从而拓宽了熵在地图数据处理中的应用范围。     

Probabilistic Distribution of the Maximum Wave Heigh

A new method of treating maximum wave height as a random variable in reliability analysis of breakwater caissons is proposed. The maximum wave height is expressed as the significant wave height multiplied by the so-called wave height ratio. The proposed wave height ratio is a type of transfer function from the significant wave height to the maximum wave height. Under the condition of a breaking wave, the ratio is intrinsically nonlinear. Therefore, the probability density function for the variable cannot be easily defined. In this study, however, it can be derived from the relationship between the maximum and significant waves in a nonbreaking environment. Some examples are shown to validate the derived probability density function for the wave ratio parameter. By introducing the wave height ratio into reliability analysis of caisson breakwater, the maximum wave height can be used as an independent and primary random variable, which means that the risk of caisson failure during its lifetime can be evaluated realistically.     

龙口港极端设计水位的组合估计

传统的单因素极端设计水位计算方法忽略了天文潮位与风暴潮增水的联合作用.已经提出的天文潮与风暴潮增水的组合方法,也未能把二者当作相关的事件来考虑.选取龙口港连续25 a风暴潮增水和天文潮位资料,采用二维Log-normal理论分布进行计算,估计了多年一遇风暴潮增水与天文潮位的联合重现值,所得极端水位可供海岸防灾部门作为设计参考.