A regression model to estimate regional ground water recharge

A regional regression model was developed to estimate the spatial distribution of ground water recharge in subhumid regions. The regional regression recharge (RRR) model was based on a regression of basin-wide estimates of recharge from surface water drainage basins, precipitation, growing degree days (GDD), and average basin specific yield (SY). Decadal average recharge, precipitation, and GDD were used in the RRR model. The RRR estimates were derived from analysis of stream base flow using a computer program that was based on the Rorabaugh method. As expected, there was a strong correlation between recharge and precipitation. The model was applied to statewide data in Minnesota. Where precipitation was least in the western and northwestern parts of the state (50 to 65 cm/year), recharge computed by the RRR model also was lowest (0 to 5 cm/year). A strong correlation also exists between recharge and SY. SY was least in areas where glacial lake clay occurs, primarily in the northwest part of the state; recharge estimates in these areas were in the 0- to 5-cm/year range. In sand-plain areas where SY is greatest, recharge estimates were in the 15- to 29-cm/year range on the basis of the RRR model. Recharge estimates that were based on the RRR model compared favorably with estimates made on the basis of other methods. The RRR model can be applied in other subhumid regions where region wide data sets of precipitation, streamflow, GDD, and soils data are available.     

Stream bottom resistivity tomography to map ground water discharge

This study investigates the effectiveness of direct current electrical resistivity as a tool for assessing ground water/surface water interactions within streams. This research has shown that patterns of ground water discharge can be mapped at the meter scale, which is important for understanding stream water quality and ecosystem function. Underwater electrical resistivity surveys along a 107-m stream section within the Burd Run Watershed in South Central Pennsylvania identified three resistivity layers: a resistive (100 to 400 Ωm) surface layer corresponding to the streambed sediments, a conductive (20 to 100 Ωm) middle layer corresponding to residual clay sediments, and a resistive (100 to 450 Ωm) bottom layer corresponding to the carbonate bedrock. Tile probing to determine the depth to the bedrock and resistivity test box analysis of augered sediment samples confirmed these interpretations of the resistivity data. Ground water seeps occurred where the resistivity data showed that the residual clays were thinnest and bedrock was closest to the streambed. Plotting the difference in resistivity between two surveys, one conducted during low-stage and the other during high-stage stream conditions, showed changes in the conductivity of the pore fluids saturating the sediments. Under high-stream stage conditions, the top layer showed increased resistivity values for sections with surface water infiltration but showed nearly constant resistivity in sections with ground water seeps. This was expressed as difference values less than 50 Ωm in the area of the seeps and greater than 50 Ωm change for the streambed sediments saturated by surface water. Thus, electrical resistivity aided in characterizing ground water discharge zones by detecting variations in subsurface resistivity under high- and low-stream stage conditions as well as mapping subsurface heterogeneities that promote these exchanges.     

Latin hypercube approach to estimate uncertainty in ground water vulnerability

A methodology is proposed to quantify prediction uncertainty associated with ground water vulnerability models that were developed through an approach that coupled multivariate logistic regression with a geographic information system (GIS). This method uses Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) to illustrate the propagation of input error and estimate uncertainty associated with the logistic regression predictions of ground water vulnerability. Central to the proposed method is the assumption that prediction uncertainty in ground water vulnerability models is a function of input error propagation from uncertainty in the estimated logistic regression model coefficients (model error) and the values of explanatory variables represented in the GIS (data error). Input probability distributions that represent both model and data error sources of uncertainty were simultaneously sampled using a Latin hypercube approach with logistic regression calculations of probability of elevated nonpoint source contaminants in ground water. The resulting probability distribution represents the prediction intervals and associated uncertainty of the ground water vulnerability predictions. The method is illustrated through a ground water vulnerability assessment of the High Plains regional aquifer. Results of the LHS simulations reveal significant prediction uncertainties that vary spatially across the regional aquifer. Additionally, the proposed method enables a spatial deconstruction of the prediction uncertainty that can lead to improved prediction of ground water vulnerability.     

Regional estimation of total recharge to ground water in Nebraska

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated by a novel water-balance approach. This approach uses geographic information systems (GIS) layers of land cover, elevation of land and ground water surfaces, base recharge, and the recharge potential in combination with monthly climatic data. Long-term mean recharge > 140 mm per year was estimated in eastern Nebraska, having the highest annual precipitation rates within the state, along the Elkhorn, Platte, Missouri, and Big Nemaha River valleys where ground water is very close to the surface. Similarly high recharge values were obtained for the Sand Hills sections of the North and Middle Loup, as well as Cedar River and Beaver Creek valleys due to high infiltration rates of the sandy soil in the area. The westernmost and southwesternmost parts of the state were estimated to typically receive < 30 mm of recharge a year.     

Migration of induced-infiltrated stream water into nearby aquifers due to seasonal ground water withdrawal

Analysis of stream-aquifer interaction due to ground water extraction has traditionally focused on the determination of the amount of water depleted in the stream. Less attention has been paid to the movement of infiltrated stream water inside aquifer, particularly for agricultural areas. This paper presents a method of using particle-tracking techniques to evaluate the transport of the leaked stream water in the nearby aquifers. Simple stream-aquifer conditions are used to demonstrate the usefulness of the analysis. Travel times, pathlines, and influence zones of stream water were determined between a stream and nearby pumping wells for seasonal ground water extraction areas. When water quantity is a concern, the analyses provide additional information about stream depletion; when water quality is an issue, they offer information for wellhead protection. Analyses were conducted for transient conditions, and both pumping and nonpumping periods were considered. According to the results from the simulation examples, migration of infiltrated stream water into the nearby aquifers is generally slow and most infiltrated stream water does not arrive at the pumping well at the end of a 90-day irrigation season. Infiltrated stream water may remain in the aquifer for several years before arriving at the pumping well. For aquifers with a regional hydraulic gradient toward streams, part of the infiltrated stream water may discharge back to streams during a recovery period.     

Animating ground water levels with Excel

This note describes the use of Microsoft Excel macros (programs written in Excel's internal language, Visual Basic for Applications) to create simple onscreen animations of transient ground water data within Excel. Compared to many specialized visualization software packages, the use of Excel macros is much cheaper, much simpler, and can rapidly be learned. The Excel macro can also be used to create individual GIF files for each animation frame. This series of frames can then be used to create an AVI video file using any of a number of graphics packages, such as Corel PhotoPaint. The technique is demonstrated through a macro that animates changes in the elevation of a water table along a transect over several years.     

Regional estimation of base recharge to ground water using water balance and a base-flow index

Naturally occurring long-term mean annual base recharge to ground water in Nebraska was estimated with the help of a water-balance approach and an objective automated technique for base-flow separation involving minimal parameter-optimization requirements. Base recharge is equal to total recharge minus the amount of evapotranspiration coming directly from ground water. The estimation of evapotranspiration in the water-balance equation avoids the need to specify a contributing drainage area for ground water, which in certain cases may be considerably different from the drainage area for surface runoff. Evapotranspiration was calculated by the WREVAP model at the Solar and Meteorological Surface Observation Network (SAMSON) sites. Long-term mean annual base recharge was derived by determining the product of estimated long-term mean annual runoff (the difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration) and the base-flow index (BFI). The BFI was calculated from discharge data obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey's gauging stations in Nebraska. Mapping was achieved by using geographic information systems (GIS) and geostatistics. This approach is best suited for regional-scale applications. It does not require complex hydrogeologic modeling nor detailed knowledge of soil characteristics, vegetation cover, or land-use practices. Long-term mean annual base recharge rates in excess of 110 mm/year resulted in the extreme eastern part of Nebraska. The western portion of the state expressed rates of only 15 to 20 mm annually, while the Sandhills region of north-central Nebraska was estimated to receive twice as much base recharge (40 to 50 mm/year) as areas south of it.     

Michigan basin regional ground water flow discharge to three Great Lakes

Ground water discharge to the Great Lakes around the Lower Peninsula of Michigan is primarily from recharge in riparian basins and proximal upland areas that are especially important to the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline. A steady-state finite-difference model was developed to simulate ground water flow in four regional aquifers in Michigan's Lower Peninsula: the Glaciofluvial, Saginaw, Parma-Bayport, and Marshall aquifers interlayered with the Till/"red beds," Saginaw, and Michigan confining units, respectively. The model domain was laterally bound by a continuous specified-head boundary, formed from lakes Michigan, Huron, St. Clair, and Erie, with the St. Clair and Detroit River connecting channels. The model was developed to quantify regional ground water flow in the aquifer systems using independently determined recharge estimates. According to the flow model, local stream stages and discharges account for 95% of the overall model water budget; only 50% enters the lakes directly from the ground water system. Direct ground water discharge to the Great Lakes' shorelines was calculated at 36 m3/sec, accounting for 5% of the overall model water budget. Lowland areas contribute far less ground water discharge to the Great Lakes than upland areas. The model indicates that Saginaw Bay receives only approximately 1.13 m3/sec ground water; the southern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives only approximately 2.83 m3/sec. In contrast, the northern half of the Lake Michigan shoreline receives more than 17 m3/sec from upland areas.     

Environmental isotopes as indicators for ground water recharge to fractured granite

To assess the contribution of accumulated winter precipitation and glacial meltwater to the recharge of deep ground water flow systems in fracture crystalline rocks, measurements of environmental isotope ratios, hydrochemical composition, and in situ parameters of ground water were performed in a deep tunnel. The measurements demonstrate the significance of these ground water recharge components for deep ground water flow systems in fractured granites of a high alpine catchment in the Central Alps, Switzerland. Hydrochemical and in situ parameters, as well as delta(18)O in ground water samples collected in the tunnel, show only small temporal variations. The precipitation record of delta(18)O shows seasonal variations of approximately 14% and a decrease of 0.23% +/- 0.03% per 100 m elevation gain. delta(2)H and delta(18)O in precipitation are well correlated and plot close to the meteoric water line, as well as delta(2)H and delta(18)O in ground water samples, reflecting the meteoric origin of the latter. The depletion of 18O in ground water compared to 18O content in precipitation during the ground water recharge period indicates significant contributions from accumulated depleted winter precipitation to ground water recharge. The hydrochemical composition of the encountered ground water, Na-Ca-HCO3-SO4(-F), reflects an evolution of the ground water along the flowpath through the granite body. Observed tritium concentrations in ground water range from 2.6 to 16.6 TU, with the lowest values associated with a local negative temperature anomaly and anomalous depleted 18O in ground water. This demonstrates the effect of local ground water recharge from meltwater of submodern glacial ice. Such localized recharge from glaciated areas occurs along preferential flowpaths within the granite body that are mainly controlled by observed hydraulic active shear fractures and cataclastic faults.     

Vadose zone-attenuated artificial recharge for input to a ground water model

Accurate representation of artificial recharge is requisite to calibration of a ground water model of an unconfined aquifer for a semiarid or arid site with a vadose zone that imparts significant attenuation of liquid transmission and substantial anthropogenic liquid discharges. Under such circumstances, artificial recharge occurs in response to liquid disposal to the vadose zone in areas that are small relative to the ground water model domain. Natural recharge, in contrast, is spatially variable and occurs over the entire upper boundary of a typical unconfined ground water model. An improved technique for partitioning artificial recharge from simulated total recharge for inclusion in a ground water model is presented. The improved technique is applied using data from the semiarid Hanford Site. From 1944 until the late 1980s, when Hanford's mission was the production of nuclear materials, the quantities of liquid discharged from production facilities to the ground vastly exceeded natural recharge. Nearly all hydraulic head data available for use in calibrating a ground water model at this site were collected during this period or later, when the aquifer was under the diminishing influence of the massive water disposals. The vadose zone is typically 80 to 90 m thick at the Central Plateau where most production facilities were located at this semiarid site, and its attenuation of liquid transmission to the aquifer can be significant. The new technique is shown to improve the representation of artificial recharge and thereby contribute to improvement in the calibration of a site-wide ground water model.     

Validation of numerical ground water models used to guide decision making

Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long-term, iterative process and the author believes that this process should be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not represent established and generally accepted practices, but there is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on site-specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground water predictive models.     

Heat as a ground water tracer

Heat carried by ground water serves as a tracer to identify surface water infiltration, flow through fractures, and flow patterns in ground water basins. Temperature measurements can be analyzed for recharge and discharge rates, the effects of surface warming, interchange with surface water, hydraulic conductivity of streambed sediments, and basin-scale permeability. Temperature data are also used in formal solutions of the inverse problem to estimate ground water flow and hydraulic conductivity. The fundamentals of using heat as a ground water tracer were published in the 1960s, but recent work has significantly expanded the application to a variety of hydrogeological settings. In recent work, temperature is used to delineate flows in the hyporheic zone, estimate submarine ground water discharge and depth to the salt-water interface, and in parameter estimation with coupled ground water and heat-flow models. While short reviews of selected work on heat as a ground water tracer can be found in a number of research papers, there is no critical synthesis of the larger body of work found in the hydrogeological literature. The purpose of this review paper is to fill that void and to show that ground water temperature data and associated analytical tools are currently underused and have not yet realized their full potential.     

Development of saline ground water through transpiration of sea water

As vegetation usually excludes salt during water uptake, transpiration will increase the salinity of the residual water. If the source water is sea water, then the residual water may become highly saline. In the unconfined coastal aquifer of the tropical Burdekin River delta, northeastern Australia, areas of highly saline ground water with chloride concentrations up to almost three times that of sea water occur up to 15 km from the present coastline, and are attributed to transpiration by mangrove vegetation during periods of high sea level. Radiogenic ((14)C) carbon isotope analyses indicate that ground water with chloride concentrations between 15,000 and 35,000 mg/L is mostly between 4000 and 6000 years old, at which time sea level was 2 to 3 m higher than present. Stable isotope analyses of oxygen-18 and deuterium show no evidence for evaporative enrichment of this water. Oxygen-18, deuterium, and stable (delta(13)C) carbon isotope analyses of ground water and soil water point to a recharge environment beneath the mangrove forests during this postglacial sea level high stand. During that period, transpiration of the mangrove forests would have led to high chloride concentrations in the residual ground water, without inducing isotopic fractionation. Due to the higher density, this hypersaline water moved downward through the aquifer by gravity and has formed lenses of highly saline ground water at the bottom of the unconfined aquifer.