Estimation of Strong Ground Motions for 2001 Bhuj (M w 7.6), India Earthquake

The strong ground motions for the 2001 Bhuj (M _w 7.6) India earthquake have been estimated on hard rock and B/C boundary (NEHRP) levels using a recently modified version of stochastic finite fault modeling based on dynamic corner frequency (Motazedian and Atkinson in Bull Seismol Soc Am 95, 995–1010 2005). Incorporation of dynamic corner frequency removes the limitations of earlier stochastic methods. Simulations were carried out at 13 sites in Gujarat where structural response recorder (SRR) recordings are available. In addition, accelerograms were simulated at the B/C boundary at a large number of points distributed on a grid. The corresponding response spectra have also been estimated. The values of peak ground accelerations and spectral accelerations at three periods (0.4, 0.75 and 1.25 s) are presented in the form of contour maps. The maximum value of peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the center of meizoseismal zone is 550 cm/s². The response spectral acceleration in same zone is 900 cm/s² (T = 0.4 s), 600 cm/s² (T = 0.75 s) and 300 cm/s² (T = 1.25 s). The innermost PGA contour is on the fault plane. A comparison of the PGA values obtained at 13 sites in this study with those obtained in earlier studies on the same sites, but employing different methods, show that the present PGA values are comparable at most of the sites. The rate of decay of PGA values is fast at short distances as compared to that at longer distances. The PGA values obtained here put some constraints on the expected values from a similar earthquake in the region. A synthetic intensity map has been prepared from the estimated values of PGA using an empirical relation. A comparison with the reported intensity map of the earthquake shows the synthetic MMI values, as expected, are lower by 1 unit compared to reported intensity map. The contour map of PGA along with the contour maps of spectral acceleration at various periods permit the assessment of damage potential to various categories of houses and other structures. Such information will be quite important in planning of mitigation and disaster management programs in the region.     

澄江5.2级地震的震源机制、震源应力场和震源断层

利用地震波资料对澄江5．2级地震序列的震源机制、震源应力场和震源断层作了分析研究。结果表明，整个序列发展中，震源区及附近、构造应力场以南东东方向、水平作用为主的压应力场为主。其次还有南南东向、水平作用为主的压应力场的作用。由序列震源机制解分析，主震发震断层是走向北北东、倾角较陡的断层面，在南南东－南东向，接近水平的压应力场作用下，该断层面具有以左旋走滑为主的错动性质。该断层面是序列的主破裂面。在序列发展过程中，北西西－北西向断层也参与了活动。有的余震，虽然发生在与主破裂面一致或接近的断层面上，但破裂错动的旋性发生了变化，出现了相对主破裂事件的反向错动。极少数余震破裂错动性质呈现以倾向滑动为主的特征。在序列发展过程中，破裂面及其错动性质显地复杂。由于强震的发生，主破裂的错动，使得震源区局部应力场状态错综复杂。     

Tsunami Modeling to Validate Slip Models of the 2007 M w 8.0 Pisco Earthquake, Central Peru

Following the 2007, August 15th, M _w 8.0, Pisco earthquake in central Peru, Sladen et al. (J Geophys Res 115: B02405, 2010) have derived several slip models of this event. They inverted teleseismic data together with geodetic (InSAR) measurements to look for the co-seismic slip distribution on the fault plane, considering those data sets separately or jointly. But how close to the real slip distribution are those inverted slip models? To answer this crucial question, the authors generated some tsunami records based on their slip models and compared them to DART buoys, tsunami records, and available runup data. Such an approach requires a robust and accurate tsunami model (non-linear, dispersive, accurate bathymetry and topography, etc.) otherwise the differences between the data and the model may be attributed to the slip models themselves, though they arise from an incomplete tsunami simulation. The accuracy of a numerical tsunami simulation strongly depends, among others, on two important constraints: (i) A fine computational grid (and thus the bathymetry and topography data sets used) which is not always available, unfortunately, and (ii) a realistic tsunami propagation model including dispersion. Here, we extend Sladen’s work using newly available data, namely a tide gauge record at Callao (Lima harbor) and the Chilean DART buoy record, while considering a complete set of runup data along with a more realistic tsunami numerical that accounts for dispersion, and also considering a fine-resolution computational grid, which is essential. Through these accurate numerical simulations we infer that the InSAR-based model is in better agreement with the tsunami data, studying the case of the Pisco earthquake indicating that geodetic data seems essential to recover the final co-seismic slip distribution on the rupture plane. Slip models based on teleseismic data are unable to describe the observed tsunami, suggesting that a significant amount of co-seismic slip may have been aseismic. Finally, we compute the runup distribution along the central part of the Peruvian coast to better understand the wave amplification/attenuation processes of the tsunami generated by the Pisco earthquake.     

2013年巴基斯坦Mw7.7地震震源参数特征及烈度分布估计

2013年9月24日巴基斯坦中南部发生Mw7.7地震,震中位于巴基斯坦阿瓦兰县北部69 km处,发震断层为走滑断层机制,极震区烈度达到Ⅸ度以上.我们计算了巴基斯坦地震的视应力、应力降等震源参数,明确该地震为断层动态摩擦过程中的应力上调模式;进一步选取发震断层面上滑动位移的反演结果,构建有限断层模型,对近断层区域的强地面运动进行估算,并基于强地面运动模拟结果给出震区的烈度分布图.结果显示,模拟的巴基斯坦地震烈度图极震区烈度达到Ⅸ度,Ⅶ度烈度影响范围与美国地质调查局震后给出的震动图(ShakeMap)较为一致.强烈地震发生后,基于强地面运动模拟计算给出的烈度分布情况具备较好的合理性,对震区给出及时的震情判定和开展相应的救灾工作具有较高的实际价值.     

基于随机振动模型的强地面运动数值模拟及其在广西灵山M6 3/4地震中的应用

1936年4月1日广西灵山县平山镇东南罗阳山附近发生M6(3/4)地震,该地震是华南大陆自有地震记载以来发生的最大地震。本研究收集整理了灵山M6(3/4)地震的地质资料、活动断层探测最新成果等,选取适当的研究区域,利用随机振动有限断层模型计算区域内网格点的峰值加速度(PGA)及峰值速度(PGV)等参数,并且加入浅层横波速度结构V_s³⁰对地震动参数的影响,最终得到此次地震的地震动分布并分析了地震动特征。本研究将模拟结果与野外调查烈度数据和地震动衰减关系进行对比,结果显示模拟结果与调查烈度值和衰减关系在整体衰减特征、极震区的分布等方面均符合较好,模拟结果可为该地区未来地震危害性评估提供依据。本研究所使用的方法流程亦可应用于本地区地震烈度速报,为震后应急救援及决策指挥提供帮助。     

汶川地震动摇摆分量参数的衰减特征分析

受接收设备和记录数量的限制,对摇摆分量内在属性及参数的统计分析了解甚少。为揭示摇摆分量的工程特性,便于结构抗震分析合理选取地震动参数,基于“5·12”汶川8.0级地震的348条数据记录,对比分析平动分量和摇摆分量的幅值以及频谱和持时的空间分布特征和随断层距的衰减规律。研究表明:摇摆分量与平动分量相比,在数量上峰值小很多,能量持时稍小且特征周期偏大。摇摆分量参数的空间分布特征为峰值具有沿断层破裂传播方向的方向性效应,峰值比、特征周期、能量持时的方向性效应不明显;除特征周期外,峰值、峰值比和能量持时均存在上下盘效应,上盘大于下盘。随断层距的变化特征为摇摆分量参数与平动分量参数的规律性一致,均表现为随断层距的增大,峰值减小,峰值比、特征周期和能量持时增加。     

1954年腾格里沙漠北7级地震断层面参数和滑动性质研究

1954年腾格里沙漠北发生7级大震,由于此次地震发生在戈壁深处,风沙作用强烈,震后破坏现象不易保存,给通过地质踏勘研究地震增加了难度。到目前为止,涉及此次地震的发震构造研究内容较少。本研究根据成丛小震发生在大震断层面附近的原则及参考前人给出极震区长轴形态,采用1985—2012年发生在地震破裂区的精定位地震目录,选定了一个长条状研究区域,将模拟退火算法和高斯一牛顿算法结合,给出了利用小震密集程度求解的主震断层面走向、倾角,并确定地震发震断裂的长度、位置。在此基础上考虑区域构造应力参数,给出已求得断层面上的滑动角。最后将反演结果与已有结果做了对照,显示反演结果与已有的结果基本一致,反演到的震源断层位于前人给出的此次地震等震线的最高烈度圈内表明反演结果是真实可信的。     

1954年腾格里沙漠北7级地震断层面参数和滑动性质研究

1954年腾格里沙漠北发生7级大震,由于此次地震发生在戈壁深处,风沙作用强烈,震后破坏现象不易保存,给通过地质踏勘研究地震增加了难度。到目前为止,涉及此次地震的发震构造研究内容较少。本研究根据成丛小震发生在大震断层面附近的原则及参考前人给出极震区长轴形态,采用1985—2012年发生在地震破裂区的精定位地震目录,选定了一个长条状研究区域,将模拟退火算法和高斯一牛顿算法结合,给出了利用小震密集程度求解的主震断层面走向、倾角,并确定地震发震断裂的长度、位置。在此基础上考虑区域构造应力参数,给出已求得断层面上的滑动角。最后将反演结果与已有结果做了对照,显示反演结果与已有的结果基本一致,反演到的震源断层位于前人给出的此次地震等震线的最高烈度圈内表明反演结果是真实可信的。     

Teleseismic Source Parameters of the Rigan County Earthquakes and Evidence for a New Earthquake Fault

Two medium-sized earthquakes occurred on 20 December 2010 and 27 January 2011 in Rigan County, Kerman Province, southeastern Iran. According to the dislocation grid search method results, the first event was nearly strike-slip including reverse component (strike 115°, dip 50°, and rake ?5°) whereas the second event had some amount of reverse component (strike 125°, dip 75°, and rake ?5°). Based on synthetic Green’s function deconvolution and aftershock distribution, the down-dip-propagated rupture migrated toward southeast districts with low population distribution, confirming the reason for low casualties. Meanwhile, the aftershock distribution indicates the existence of a new earthquake fault for which we suggest the name “Rigan earthquake fault.” However, the same aftershock distribution indicates that the second mainshock was inevitably triggered by the first one, most probably along the continuation of the Bam earthquake fault.     

2003年新疆石河子5.4级地震序列重新定位及发震断层与机制分析

利用双差地震定位法对2003年2月14日石河子5.4级地震及其余震进行重新定位。定位结果显示,石河子地震及其余震呈N40°E方向线性展布,与准噶尔南缘断裂近乎垂直;震源深度全部分布在15~30 km范围内,优势分布为15~25 km。石河子5.4级地震震中位置为44.001395°N,85.872175°E,距离新疆地震局测得的震中位置仅1.2 km,而距离宏观考察的震中位置约49 km。分析重定位结果其震源机制解得出,这次地震的发震构造是准噶尔南缘断裂,而不是宏观考察的以连哈比尔尕山断裂;节面Ⅰ是主破裂面,而且其走向与重定位地震序列的展布方向基本一致。     

断层形态与地震破坏的动态模拟

前言地震破坏的动态模拟是地震学研究的老课题 ,其本质就是研究弹性体力学的初期值和边界值。关键是它涉及了几个方面 :“如何解方程式——方法”;“如何给出作为初始条件、边界条件的摩擦定律”。根据上世纪 80年代有关摩擦定律的实验、理论研究方面的进展和 90年代通过地震波反演对震源图像的详细探明 ,由事先假设破坏的形态和运动的运动学模式的方式转向没有解析解的、破坏自发进行的方式 (即地震破坏过程非常复杂 ,很难从物理的、定量的角度对它加以解释 !)。这次 ,我们以断层附近的地震动为研究对象 ,观察它是为什么、怎么样产生破坏的…     

Estimation of Source Parameters for the Aftershocks of the 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj Earthquake, India

The source parameters for 213 Bhuj aftershocks of moment magnitude varying from 2.16 to 5.74 have been estimated using the spectral analysis of the SH- waveform on the transverse component of the three-componnet digital seismograms as well as accelerograms. The estimated stress drop values for Bhuj aftershocks show more scatter (Mo^{0.5 to 1} ∞ Δσ) toward the larger seismic moment values (log Mo ≥ 10^14.5 N-m, larger aftershocks), whereas, they show a more systematic nature (Mo³ ∞ Δσ) for smaller seismic moment (log Mo < 10^14.5 N-m, smaller aftershocks) values. This size dependency of stress drop has also been seen from the relation between our estimated seismic moment and source radius, however, this size-dependent stress drop is not observed for the source parameter estimates for the other stable continental region earthquakes in India and around the world. The estimated seismic moment (Mo), source radius (r) and stress drop (Δσ) for aftershocks of moment magnitude 2.16 to 5.74 range from 1.95 × 10¹² to 4.5 × 10¹⁷ N-m, 239 to 2835 m and 0.63 to 20.7 MPa, respectively. The near-surface attenuation factor (k) is found to be large of the order of 0.03 for the Kachchh region, suggesting thick low velocity sediments beneath the region. The estimated stress drop values show an increasing trend with the depth indicating the base of seismogenic layer (as characterized by larger stress drop values (>15 MPa)) lying in 22–26km depth range beneath the region. We suggest that the concentration of large stress drop values at 10–36km depth may be related to the large stress/strain associvated with a brittle, competent intrusive body of mafic nature.     

2002年玉门5.9级地震的震害特征及发震断裂

20 0 2年 1 2月 1 4日 2 1时 2 7分 ,在甘肃省河西走廊西端的酒西盆地南缘 ,玉门市西旱峡煤矿 -妖魔山一带发生了MS5 9破坏性地震 ,它是继 2 0 0 0年景泰 5 9级地震、2 0 0 1年 7月1 1日肃南祁青乡 5 3级地震后 ,在祁连山北缘发生的又一次破坏性地震。是中国大陆 2 0 0 2年度发生的最大一次地震 ,也是甘肃省遭遇的第一次现代化工业城市地震。整个玉门市震感强烈 ,部分建、构筑物 ,工业设施遭到不同程度的破坏或损坏。在现场考察的基础上 ,本文主要讨论本次地震的震害特征和发震断裂特征。1　主要震害及其特征1 1　震害及其类型本次地震造…     

山西运城Ms4.3、3.4两次地震波形特征和震源新参数对比分析

对山西运城2016年3月12日Ms4.3和27日Ms3.4两次地震的波形特征和震源参数进行对比分析。结果显示,波形一致性很好,PmP波可能由于震源深度的差异,导致在同一台站的特征有所不同;震源机制解非常接近,说明两次地震的应力场作用方式一致。     

Sampling Strategies for Estimation of Parameters Related to Ground Water Quality

Multiple theoretical sampling designs are studied to determine whether sampling designs can be identified that will provide for characterization of ground water quality in rural regions of developing nations. Sampling design in this work includes assessing sampling frequency, analytical methods, length of sampling period, and requirements of sampling personnel. The results answer a set of questions regarding whether using innovative sampling designs can allow hydrogeologists to take advantage of a range of characterization technologies, sampling strategies, and available personnel to develop high-value, water-quality data sets. Monte Carlo studies are used to assess different sampling strategies in the estimation of three parameters related to a hypothetical chemical observed in a ground water well: mean concentration (MeanC), maximum concentration (MaxC), and total mass load (TML). Five different scenarios are simulated. These scenarios are then subsampled using multiple simulated sampling instruments, time periods (ranging from 1 to 10 years), and sampling frequencies (ranging from weekly to semiannually to parameter dependent). Results are analyzed via the statistics of the resulting estimates, including mean square error, bias, bias squared, and precision. Results suggest that developing a sampling strategy based on what may be considered lower quality instruments can represent a powerful field research approach for estimating select parameters when applied at high frequency. This result suggests the potential utility of using a combination of lower quality instrument and local populations to obtain high frequency data sets in regions where regular monitoring by technicians is not practical.     

随机振动有限断层方法计算衡水市强地面运动参数

主要介绍了随机振动的有限断层模型在强地面运动研究中的应用,考虑V30(地下30m的平均剪切波速)对强地面运动结果的影响。以衡水为例,计算了6条周边断层设定地震在衡水市的峰值加速度、峰值速度和时程曲线。对衡水市区危害相对最小的是新河断裂和护驾池断裂,峰值加速度值在50~90cm/s2左右,峰值速度在10cm/s以下,对应到中国地震烈度表为Ⅵ~Ⅶ度;对衡水主城区危害最大的是衡水断裂,峰值加速度值在200~360cm/s2左右,峰值速度在30~45cm/s之间,对应的烈度值为Ⅷ~Ⅸ度。     

映射法在估计强地震动参数中的应用

以我国中南地区为例,参考美国西部地震烈度、基岩峰值加速度、反应谱平均周期和谱光滑卓越周期的衰减规律,采用地震对映射的烈度震级法和烈度距离法,评估了研究区基岩峰值加速度和反应谱频率参数的不同衰减影响因素。     

2019年12月26日湖北应城M4.9地震震源参数及余震活动性研究

2019年12月26日湖北应城发生M4.9有感地震,其震感波及武汉大部分地区。为了分析该地震的发震构造及余震活动性,本文利用波形拟合方法测定了不同速度模型下该地震的震源机制解和矩心深度,并用Bootstrapping抽样反演技术评价反演结果;此外,利用模板匹配技术匹配主震和目录余震波形,获取了更为完整的余震目录。结果显示,应城地震以走滑为主,矩心深度7.5km左右,矩震级M_W4.67;应城地震有1个前震和17个余震,余震序列缺少M2~4事件,表明应城地震为孤立型地震,M2以下地震的b值为0.8。     

Methods for Measuring Seismicity Rate Changes: A Review and a Study of How the M w 7.3 Landers Earthquake Affected the Aftershock Sequence of the M w 6.1 Joshua Tree Earthquake

The development of fault interaction models has triggered the need for an accurate estimation of seismicity rate changes following the occurrence of an earthquake. Several statistical methods have been developed in the past to serve this purpose, each relying on different assumptions (e.g., stationarity, gaussianity) pertaining to the seismicity process.In this paper we review these various approaches, discuss their limitations, and propose further improvements. The feasibility of mapping robust seismicity rate changes, and more particularly rate decreases (i.e., seismicity shadows), in the first few days of an aftershock sequence, is examined. To this aim, the hypothesis of large numbers of earthquakes, hence the use of Gaussian statistics, as is usually assumed, must be dropped.Finally, we analyse the modulation in seismicity rates following the 1992, June 28 M_w 7.3 Landers earthquake in the region of the 1992, April 22 M_w 6.1 Joshua Tree earthquake. Clear instances of early triggering (i.e., in the first few days) followed by a seismicity quiescence, are observed. This could indicate the existence of two distinct interaction regimes, a first one caused by the destabilisation of active faults by the travelling seismic waves, and a second one due to the remaining static stress perturbation.