成矿预测中非参数蒙特卡洛模拟方法研究

非参数方法是在成矿预测中、当统计数据不服从或不完全服从现则分布时的一种蒙特卡洛模拟形式 非参数方法采用拉格朗日插值函数和三次条样函数,并均满足密度函数的条件.可以对统计数据进行拟合.借以建立各种抽样模型 即便是离散型数据.也可用牛顿插值法为其建立非参数抽样模型 因而.它具有算法统一.编程简单和有利于计算机自动化模拟等优点.具有广阔的应用前景     

苏中腹地湖相软土土性参数变异性统计描述

基于江苏中部某高速公路工程地质勘察所提供的大量室内试验测试数据,运用随机场理论,将土层剖面模拟为随机场而非传统意义上的随机变量,提出了基于随机场理论、考虑空间趋势分量的土性参数变异性统计方法,系统地统计分析了苏中腹地湖相软土土性参数的变异特性,对比了实验室物理性质指标参数、变形参数和强度参数变异性特征。统计结果表明,该地区软土实验室物理性质指标参数变异性较小,不存在明显的趋势分量,可用传统方法进行统计估计;实验室变形和强度参数存在明显的趋势分量,统计前需对数据进行回归分析和去趋势化处理,从而基于随机场理论进行统计分析。研究不仅提供了土性参数变异性统计的新方法,而且能对苏中地区工程建设提供必要的参考,为区域性软土土性参数随机场模型的建立打下了坚实的基础。     

Genetic algorithms in probabilistic finite element analysis of geotechnical problems

In application to numerical analysis of geotechnical problems, the limit-state surface is usually not known in any closed form. The probability of failure can be assessed via the so-called reliability index. A minimization problem can naturally be formed with an implicit equality constraint defined as the limit-state function and optimization methods can be used for such problems. In this paper, a genetic algorithm is proposed and incorporated into a displacement finite element method to find the Hasofer–Lind reliability index. The probabilistic finite element method is then used to analyse the reliability of classical geotechnical systems. The performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) is compared with simpler probability methods such as the first-order-second-moment Taylor series method. The comparison shows that the GA can produce the results fairly quickly and is applicable to evaluation of the failure performance of geotechnical problems involving a large number of decision variables.     

Development of Seismic Risk Scenarios Based on a Hybrid Method of Vulnerability Assessment

A hybrid methodology of vulnerability analysis is presented, involving elements from both empirical and theoretical methods. A model for correlating analytically calculated structural damage indices to loss (in monetary terms) is also proposed and calibrated against available statistical data. Probability damage matrices derived using this methodology are incorporated into a cost-benefit model tailored to the problem of estimating the feasibility of seismically rehabilitating the existing stock of reinforced concrete buildings in Thessaloniki, Greece. Losses calculated using the suggested procedure are found to be in good agreement with losses incurred during the 1978 Thessaloniki earthquake. The results of the present study also indicate that benefit/cost ratios for reinforced concrete buildings are quite low. Hence, it appears that a pre-earthquake strengthening programme is not economically justifiable.     

Rock-soil slope stability analysis by two-phase random media and finite elements

To investigate the strong random nature of the geometric interfaces between soil and rock, a rock-soil slope is considered as a two-phase random medium. A nonlinear translation of a Gaussian field is utilized to simulate the two-phase random media, such that the soil(or rock) volume fraction and the inclination of the soil layer can be examined. The finite element method with random media incorporated as the material properties is used to determine the factor of safety of the rock-soil slope. Monte-Carlo simulations are used to estimate the statistical characteristics of the factor of safety. The failure mode of the rock-soil slope is examined by observing the maximum principal plastic strain at incipient slope failure. It is found that the critical surface of a rock-soil slope is fairly irregular, and it significantly differs from that of a pure soil slope. The factor of safety is sensitive to the soil volume faction, but it is predictable. The average factor of safety could be well predicted by the weighted harmonic average between the strength of soil and rock; the prediction model is practical and simple. Parametric studies on the inclination of the soil layer demonstrate that the most instable scenario occurs when the slope angle is consistent with the inclination of the soil layer.     

A coupled 3‐dimensional bonded discrete element and lattice Boltzmann method for fluid‐solid coupling in cohesive geomaterials

This paper presents a 3D bonded discrete element and lattice Boltzmann method for resolving the fluid‐solid interaction involving complicated fluid‐particle coupling in geomaterials. In the coupled technique, the solid material is treated as an assembly of bonded and/or granular particles. A bond model accounting for strain softening in normal contact is incorporated into the discrete element method to simulate the mechanical behaviour of geomaterials, whilst the fluid flow is solved by the lattice Boltzmann method based on kinetic theory and statistical mechanics. To provide a bridge between theory and application, a 3D algorithm of immersed moving boundary scheme was proposed for resolving fluid‐particle interaction. To demonstrate the applicability and accuracy of this coupled method, a benchmark called quicksand, in which particles become fluidised under the driving of upward fluid flow, is first carried out. The critical hydraulic gradient obtained from the numerical results matches the theoretical value. Then, numerical investigation of the performance of granular filters generated according to the well‐acknowledged design criteria is given. It is found that the proposed 3D technique is promising, and the instantaneous migration of the protected soils can be readily observed. Numerical results prove that the filters which comply with the design criteria can effectively alleviate or eliminate the appearance of particle erosion in dams.     

"后Urey模型时代"的稳定同位素地球化学基础理论

简要综述了最近十几争来稳定同位素地球化学基础理论发展的几个热点,包括能处理重元素的同位素分馏的核场效应理论、基于晶格动力学及声子的密度函数微扰理论计算的固体同位素分馏理论、稳定同位素的微观反应动力学理论,以及含压力变量的同位素分馏理论。这些新理论,表明长期基于Urey模型或称Bigeleisen-Mayer公式的稳定同位素地球化学的时代已经结束,更精确、更丰富的理论体系正在逐步建立之中。     

模糊加权优化适线法的改进及统计特征分析

水文序列长度有限,频率曲线参数估计存在抽样误差,采用加权适线法能够很好地减小误差。模糊加权优化适线法的诺模图长度有限,而且隶属度函数不是以样本无穷大为前提,对模糊加权优化适线法改进,提出半降正态分布的隶属度函数,运用大样本统计试验方法延长诺模图。以理想数据、蒙特卡洛随机数和实测序列对改进的方法检验,以无偏性和有效性为评价指标,运用评分法和百分率法对统计结果分析评价。结果表明改进的模糊加权优化适线法的统计特性好,适线精度高,能够促进模糊加权优化适线法在实际工程中的推广应用。     

结构面粗糙度统计测量最小样本数确定方法

由于结构面粗糙度具有各质异性、各向异性、非均一性和尺寸效应等特征，结构面粗糙度系数（JRC）取值具有不确定性，工程中广泛采用统计方法来分析结构面粗糙度性质，然而以往研究往往忽略样本数不足对统计结果的影响。针对结构面粗糙度统计测量时无法确定合理样本数的问题，分别提出基于变异系数级比分析及简单随机抽样原理的最小样本数确定方法。以实际工程岩体结构面表面数据为研究对象，对比分析两种方法在系列尺寸下确定的统计测量最小样本数。实例分析表明：小尺寸样本的变异系数（CV）值明显大于大尺寸样本，且CV值随取样尺寸的增大而减小，取样尺寸为10～50 cm的CV值基本稳定在0.31～0.47之间，取样尺寸为60～100 cm的CV值基本稳定在0.21～0.31之间；最小样本数与取样尺寸基本满足幂函数关系，且最小样本数随取样尺寸的增大而减少；系列尺寸下级比分析方法在允许误差为±2%时确定的最小样本数与简单随机抽样原理在最大允许误差为10%、置信度为95%时计算的最小样本数是一致的，相似度大于0.997。该研究方法可为工程岩体中定量获取结构面粗糙度统计测量最小样本数提供依据，保证了JRC（结构面粗糙度系数）统计测量结果的准确性，对工程岩体稳定性评价中结构面力学参数的准确获取具有重要意义。     

基于因子分析方法解析降雨分量的渗流统计模型及应用

基于原型监测资料的渗流统计模型可用于分析枢纽区的渗流动态,而其中因子的选择影响模型的有效性。针对抽水蓄能电站环境变量监测频率的不一致性,对输水系统所在山体的地下水水位进行因子分析并对提取出的公共因子进行识别,而后将其中的降雨因子应用于基于滞后效应的渗流统计模型中。计算结果表明,与不考虑降雨因子相比较,所建模型可以有效地提高模型精度。因而,该模型适用于环境变量监测频率不一致或缺少相关资料的情形。     

随机-模糊统计方法在岩土特征参数指标统计中的应用

岩土工程中的随机-模糊统计方法用模糊理论准确表达了岩土材料的空间变异性。针对随机-模糊方法权重系数的取值进行了讨论,研究了“参照点”在随机-模糊方法的意义,指出了“参照点”与核点无限接近时的最大隶属度才是所要求的正确结果,并根据模糊随机原理提出了直接迭代求解目标函数的流程。采用建议方法对某核电岩土工程中的参数进行了计算,获得了取不同“参照点”时各样本的隶属度曲线以及“参照点”向核点逐步逼近的过程曲线。结果表明,隶属度函数采用指数函数是合理的,样本隶属度分布形态为窄域“正态”分布。所得结论可为随机-模糊统计方法在岩土工程中的应用提供基本理论依据。     

Causal models as multiple working hypotheses about environmental processes

The environmental modeller faces a dilemma. Science often demands that more and more process representations are incorporated into models (particularly to avoid the possibility of making missing process errors in predicting future response). Testing the causal representations in environmental models (as multiple working hypotheses about the functioning of environmental systems) then depends on specifying boundary conditions and model parameters adequately. This will always be difficult in applications to a real system because of the heterogeneities, non-stationarities, complexities and epistemic uncertainties inherent in environmental prediction. Thus, it can be difficult to define the information content of a data set used in model evaluation and any consequent measures of belief or verisimilitude. A limit of acceptability approach to model evaluation is suggested as a way of testing models, implying that thought is required to define critical experiments that will allow models as hypotheses to be adequately differentiated.     

Improvement of multiple linear regression method for statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation

This article aims at proposing an improved statistical model for statistical downscaling of monthly precipitation using multiple linear regression (MLR). The proposed model, namely Monthly Statistical DownScaling Model (MSDSM), has been developed based on the general structure of Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). In order to improve the performance of the model, some statistical modifications have been incorporated including bias correction using variance correction factor (VCF) to improve the computed variance pattern. We illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model through its application to 288 rain gauge stations scattered in different climatic zones of Iran. Comparison between the results of SDSM and the proposed MSDSM has indicated superiority of the proposed model in reproducing long-term mean and variance of monthly precipitation. We found that the weakness of MLR method in estimating variance has been considerably improved by applying VCF. We showed that the proposed model provides a promising alternative for statistical downscaling of precipitation at monthly time scale. An investigation of the effects of climate change in different climatic zones of Iran by the use of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) has shown that the most significant change is an increase in precipitation in fall and that the largest share of this increase belongs to arid climate.     

Box fractal dimension as a measure of statistical homogeneity of jointed rock masses

A written computer programme to estimate the box fractal dimension (D_B) is verified by estimating D_B of the triadic Koch curve for which the theoretical D is known. The influence of a number of input parameters of the box-counting method on the accuracy of estimated D_B is evaluated using the same Koch curve. The employed size range of the applied box networks was found to be the parameter which has the strongest influence on the accuracy of estimated D_B. This indicated the importance of finding the range of self-similarity or self-affinity for the object considered to select the proper range for the box sizes and, in turn, to obtain accurate estimates of D_B. By calculating D_B for different block sizes sampled from three generated two-dimensional joint patterns, it is shown that D_B can capture the combined effect of joint-size distribution and joint density on the statistical homogeneity of rock masses. The spatial variation of D_B along a 350 m stretch of a tunnel in the shiplock area of the Three Gorges dam site is computed using the joint data mapped on the walls and the roof of the tunnel. This spatial variation of D_B is used, along with the visual geological evaluation of the joint trace maps of the tunnel, in making decisions about statistical homogeneity of the rock mass around the tunnel. The results obtained on statistically homogeneous regions were found to be quite similar to the results obtained from a previous statistical homogeneity investigation which incorporated the effect of number of joint sets and their orientation distributions, but not the spatial variation of D_B. It is recommended that the spatial variation of D_B is used, along with the results of other methods such as contingency table analysis and equal area plots, which incorporate the effect of joint orientation distribution, in addition to the geology of the site, in determining the statistically homogeneous regions of jointed rock masses.     

层间水含量对蛭石有机改性影响的研究

本文以溴代十六烷基吡啶、磷酸三丁酯对膨胀蛭石和未膨胀蛭石进行了改性处理，并用IR、XRD方法研究了蛭石在不同层间水含量情况下，这两种有机分子分别进入蛭石层间的难易情况，结果表明：（1）层间水含量能够对有机分子进入蛭石层间产生影响，但对具有较强离子交换能力的有机分子进入层间的影响不大；（2）磷酸三丁酯分子易于与含层间水少的膨胀蛭石结合，说明层间水对磷酸三丁酯分子的作用遵循异极性排斥的原则。     

Pressure–settlement characteristics of rectangular footings on reinforced sand

A method has been proposed to obtain the pressure–settlement characteristics of rectangular footings resting on reinforced sand based on constitutive laws of soils. The confining effect of the reinforcement provided in the soil at different layers has been incorporated in the analysis by considering the equivalent stresses generated due to friction at the soil– reinforcement interface. The prerequisite of the method is the value of ultimate bearing capacity, which can be obtained from the approaches already available in literature. The value of settlement may be read directly from pressure–settlement curves for the given pressure intensity. Therefore, the rectangular footing resting on reinforced sand can be proportioned satisfying shear failure and settlement criteria.     

Chemical influences on trace metal-sulfide interactions in anoxic sediments

Interactions of trace metals with sulfide in anoxic environments are important in determining their chemical form and potential toxicity to organisms. In recent years, a considerable body of observational data has accumulated that indicates very different behavior for various trace metals in sulfidic sediments. These differences in behavior cannot be entirely attributed to thermodynamic relationships, but also reflect differences in ligand exchange reaction kinetics, and redox reaction pathways.Pb, Zn, and Cd, which are generally pyritized to only a few percent of the “reactive” fraction, have faster water exchange reaction kinetics than Fe²⁺, resulting in MeS phases precipitating prior to FeS formation and subsequent pyrite formation, whereas, Co and Ni, which have slower H₂O exchange kinetics than Fe²⁺, are incorporated into pyrite. Although Hg and Cu have faster reaction kinetics than Fe²⁺, both are incorporated into pyrite or leached from the pyrite fraction with nitric acid. Hg undergoes significant chloride complexation, which can retard reaction with sulfide, but can also replace Fe in FeS to form HgS, which can only be dissolved in the pyrite fraction. Cu²⁺ is reduced by sulfide and forms a variety of sulfides with and without Fe that can only be dissolved with nitric acid. Mn²⁺ does not form a MnS phase easily and is incorporated into pyrite at high iron degrees of pyritization (DOP).Oxyanions of Mo and As are first reduced by sulfide. These reduced forms may then react with sulfides resulting in incorporation into pyrite. However, the oxyanion of Cr is reduced to Cr³⁺, which is kinetically inert to reaction with sulfide and, therefore, not incorporated into pyrite.     

矿产勘查合理工作范围的定量核定方法初步探讨

目前,国内外采用行政和经济手段,对矿产勘查工作范围(S)的定性审定结论,都不够合理。它的合理确定,与勘查单位投入的技术、设备、劳动力和时间,以及勘查矿区的矿种,矿产地质特征、工作程度等因素(xi)密切有关,可以用回归统计模型式表达:S=b_o+sum from i=1 to ∞ bi×xi。按照价值工程原理,重新统计现有登记项目,可以确定其价值的期望值合理置信区间,进而审定已登记项目工作范围的合理与否,帮助我们改进矿管工作。本文根据上述回归模型和功能一成本统计分析法,结合湖南省矿产勘查登记项目,作了初步应用。     

基桩可靠度分析的统计相关性评价方法

为了评估不同失效准则对基桩可靠度的影响,传统的方法是引入失效准则偏差系数。然而目前所定义的失效准则偏差系数使得偏差系数和基本随机变量之间具有一定的相关性,直接将偏差系数的统计参数用于基桩可靠度分析是不尽合理的。为此,基于线性回归理论提出了新的失效准则偏差系数的定义,并采用Spearman秩相关系数方法检验了偏差系数和基本随机变量之间的相关性。采用算例分析了偏差系数和基本随机变量之间的相关性对基桩可靠度的影响。结果表明,传统的失效准则偏差系数的定义使得偏差系数和基本随机变量之间具有一定的相关性,提出的通用的失效准则偏差系数能够有效地消除这种相关性。偏差系数与基本随机变量之间的相关性对偏差系数的均值具有明显的影响,但对变异系数基本没有影响。此外,偏差系数与基本随机变量间的相关性对基桩可靠指标具有明显的影响,基桩可靠度分析中应该消除这种相关性。     

基于裂隙产状和迹长划分岩体统计均质区研究

岩体统计均质区的划分是岩体工程设计的首要步骤,因为不同的均质区内岩体的结构特性和力学特性都存在差异。大多研究考虑产状或者其他单一参数划分岩体统计均质区,却很少有人考虑多参数进行划分研究。考虑了裂隙产状、迹长两个参数,提出了一种划分裂隙岩体统计均质区的新方法,即基于秩和检验评价两个样本之间的相似性,从而实现对裂隙岩体统计均质区的划分。结合工程实例即云南省马吉水电站左岸坝肩某两高程4个平硐的岩体结构统计均质区划分,分析了多参数对裂隙岩体统计均质区划分的影响。研究结果表明：PD241和PD253、PD201和PD241分别划分为一个统计均质区,而PD201和PD251 以及PD251和PD253不具有统计相似性。考虑了产状和迹长因素对岩体统计均质区的影响,划分结果较Miller方法更加合理可靠。结合现场调查分析,新方法的结果更加吻合实际情况。