Risk perception in small island developing states: a case study in the Commonwealth of Dominica

Natural Hazards - Small island developing states (SIDS) face high vulnerability to natural hazards; thus, understanding risk perception in SIDS is an essential step toward reducing vulnerability. A...     

Increasing public awareness of natural hazards via the Internet

NOAA’s National Geophysical Data Center is using state-of-the-art Internet tools for natural hazards education, public outreach, and access to natural hazards data. For example, NGDC acquires, processes, and provides access to geologic hazards event data that are useful in natural hazards risk assessment and hazards-related research. In addition, a collection of natural hazards slides and a teacher’s guide on volcanoes are available online. NGDC also created an online “Kids Hazards Quiz” to test the user’s knowledge of disaster safety information. An online Natural Hazards Data Resources Directory provides access to information and links to organizations that provide natural hazards data and information. Expanded access to these data and information by the public and researchers can increase public awareness of natural hazards, improve hazards research, and ultimately reduce the devastating impacts of natural disasters.     

The hazard exposure of the Maltese Islands

International comparisons of disaster risk frequently classify Malta as being one of the least hazard exposed countries. Such rankings may be criticised because: (1) they fail to take into account historic increases in population and its seasonal variation; (2) they are based on inadequately researched and incomplete historical catalogues of damaging events; and (3), for small island states like Malta, they do not take into account the implications of restricted land area, which can be disproportionately impacted by even small hazardous events. In this paper, we draw upon a variety of data to discuss disaster risk in the Maltese Islands. In particular, the notion that Malta is one of the ‘safest places on earth’ is not only misleading, but also potentially dangerous because it engenders a false sense of security amongst the population. We argue that Malta is exposed to a variety of extreme events, which include: the distal effects of major earthquakes originating in southern Italy and Greece, plus their associated tsunamis; major ash producing eruptions of Mount Etna (Sicily) and their putative impacts on air transport; storm waves; coastal/inland landslides; karstic collapse; flooding and drought. In criticising international rankings of the islands’ exposure, we highlight the issues involved in formulating hazard assessments, in particular incomplete catalogues of extreme natural events. With Malta witnessing swelling resident, seasonal (i.e. tourist) plus foreign-born populations and increases in the urban area, further research into hazards is required in order to develop evidence-based policies of disaster risk reduction (DRR).     

Land-use planning for natural hazards in New Zealand: the setting,barriers, ‘burning issues’ and priority actions

Land-use planners have a critical role to play in building vibrant, sustainable and hazard resilient communities in New Zealand. The policy and legal setting for natural hazards planning provides a solid foundation for good practice. But there are many examples of ‘bad practice’ that result in unnecessary risks and, in some cases, exposure to repeat events and potentially devastating impacts. Much, therefore, remains to be done to improve hazards planning policy and practice in New Zealand. This article explores the questions: What role does land-use planning play in managing hazard risks in New Zealand; and what needs to be done to reduce hazard risks and build community resilience? The article starts by describing the milieu within which natural hazards planning takes place. It goes onto outline the stakeholders and institutional and legal setting for natural hazards planning in New Zealand, including barriers to realising the potential of natural hazards planning. This synthesis reveals a number of ‘burning issues’, including the need to: (a) Improve understanding about the nature of hazards; (b) Prioritise risk avoidance (reduction) measures; (c) Provide national guidance for communities exposed to repeat events and address the relocation issue and (d) Mainstream climate change adaptation. Each ‘burning issue’ is discussed, and priority actions are recommended to realise the potential of land-use planning to reduce natural hazard risks and build community resilience in New Zealand. Ultimately, the challenge is to develop a cooperative hazards governance approach that is founded on coordinated policies, laws and institutions, cooperative professional practice and collaborative communities.     

A review of multiple natural hazards and risks in Germany

Although Germany is not among the most hazard-prone regions of the world, it does experience various natural hazards that have caused considerable economic and human losses in the past. Moreover, risk due to natural hazards is expected to increase in several regions of Germany if efficient risk management is not able to accommodate global changes. The most important natural hazards, in terms of past human and economic damage they caused, are storms, floods, extreme temperatures and earthquakes. They all show a pronounced spatial and temporal variability. In the present article, a review of these natural hazards, associated risks and their management in Germany is provided. This review reveals that event and risk analyses, as well as risk management, predominantly focus on one single hazard, generally not considering the cascading and conjoint effects in a full multi-hazard and risks approach. However, risk management would need integrated multi-risk analyses to identify, understand, quantify and compare different natural hazards and their impacts, as well as their interactions.     

The relevance of flood hazards and impacts in Turkey: What can be learned from different disaster loss databases?

Turkey has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. Especially over the last two decades, these natural hazards have caused enormous human and economic damage. Although there is a large body of literature on earthquake hazards and risks in Turkey, comparatively little is known about flood hazards and risks. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the severity of flooding in comparison with other natural hazards in Turkey and to analyse the flood patterns by providing an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses. These will act as a metric for the societal and economic impacts of flood hazards in Turkey. For this purpose, Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was used for the years 1960–2014. As input for more detailed event analyses, the most severe flood events in Turkey for the same time interval will also be retrieved. Sufficiency of the TABB database to achieve the main aim of the study in terms of data quality and accuracy was also discussed. The TABB database was analysed and reviewed through comparison, mainly with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events—Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, news archives and the scientific literature, with a focus on listing the most severe flood event. The comparative review of these data sources reveals big mismatches in the flood data, i.e. the reported number of events, number of affected people and economic loss all differ dramatically. Owing to the fact that the TABB is the only disaster loss database for Turkey, it is important to explore the reasons for the mismatches between TABB and the other sources with regard to aspects of accuracy and data quality. Therefore, biases and fallacies in the TABB loss data are also discussed. The comparative TABB database analyses show that large mismatches between global and national databases can occur. Current global and national databases for monitoring losses from national hazards suffer from a number of limitations, which in turn could lead to misinterpretations of the loss data. Since loss data collection is gaining more and more attention, e.g. in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, this study offers a framework for developing guidelines for the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB), implications on how to standardize national loss databases and implement across the other hazard events in Turkey.     

Social vulnerability to natural hazards in Indonesia: driving factors and policy implications

Indonesia is located in the Pacific Ring of Fire and situated at the joining point of four major world tectonic plates. Regions of Indonesia are highly prone to various natural hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions. Some recent major natural hazard events are the 2004 tsunami in Aceh and Nias and the 2010 Mount Merapi volcanic eruptions in Central Java. In parallel with advancement in knowledge of the existing hazards, the importance of social aspects of vulnerability in mitigating natural hazards has been acknowledged by the Indonesian government. However, to date, there is no institutionalized effort for assessing social vulnerability to natural hazards that would cover all the districts of Indonesia. Accordingly, no comprehensive profile of social vulnerability is available as basis information for developing strategies to prevent larger risk and losses and reduce vulnerability of communities in Indonesia. Only a few studies have been conducted in Indonesia on this field. This study attempts to fill this gap by quantifying the social vulnerability of Indonesian districts to natural hazards, determining its driving factors and mapping its variations. The social vulnerability index (SoVI) approach is utilized in this study. Three main driving factors affecting social vulnerability in Indonesia are found: ‘socioeconomic status and infrastructure,’ ‘gender, age and population growth’ and ‘family structure.’ The combination of SoVI with thematic map utilizing ArcView GIS can be used to identify districts with relative high social vulnerability level. The results can support the prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response and recovery programs of the impacts of natural hazards in Indonesia.     

Tropical cyclone early warnings for the regions of the Southern Hemisphere: strengthening resilience to tropical cyclones in small island developing states and least developed countries

Tropical cyclones (TCs) affect countries in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropics every year causing significant humanitarian impacts and much damage to the natural environment. To reduce TC impacts on societies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to communicate the risk to the public. In 1999, the Climate Change and Southern Hemisphere Tropical Cyclones International Initiative (CCSHTCII) was established to enhance EWS for TCs in SH countries, with particular focus on support for small island developing states and least developed countries to provide effective public early warnings of TC risk. In this paper, recent activities of the CCSHTCII to strengthen TC EWS are presented. Using TC best track data from the SH TC historical data archive, the impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual and spatial variability of TC activity is examined. TC-ENSO relationships in the SH are analysed and used as a scientific basis for the production of TC season outlooks. Communication of TC early warnings through TC season outlooks is described, and recommendations for improving outlooks are provided.

     

Natural and man-made hazards in the Cayman Islands

In this work, we analyze the various natural and man-made hazards that may affect the Cayman Islands and determine the level of exposure of Grand Cayman to these events. The magnitude, frequency, and probability of occurrence of the natural and man-made hazards that may potentially affect the islands are identified and ranked. The more important natural hazard to which the Cayman Islands are exposed is clearly hurricanes. To a lesser degree, the islands may be occasionally exposed to earthquakes and tsunamis. Explosions or leaks of the Airport Texaco Fuel Depot and the fuel pipeline at Grand Cayman are the most significant man-made hazards. The results of the hazard evaluation indicate that there are four areas in Grand Cayman with various levels of exposure to natural and man-made hazards: The North Sound, Little Sound, and Eastern West Bay (Area 1) show a very high level of exposure; The Central Mangroves, Central Bodden Town, Central George Town, and the West Bay (Area 2) have high level of exposure; The Northwestern West Bay, Western Georgetown-Bodden Town, and East End-North Side (Area 3) are under moderate levels of exposure. The remainder of the island shows low exposure (Area 4).     

Extreme events and disasters: a window of opportunity for change? Analysis of organizational,institutional and political changes,formal and informal responses after mega-disasters

Disaster associated with natural hazards can lead to important changes—positive or negative—in socio-ecological systems. When disasters occur, much attention is given to the direct disaster impacts as well as relief and recovery operations. Although this focus is important, it is noteworthy that there has been little research on the characteristics and progress of change induced by disasters. Change, as distinct from impacts, encompasses formal and informal responses to disaster events and their direct and indirect impacts. While smaller disasters do not often lead to significant changes in societies and organizational structures, major disasters have the potential to change dominant ways of thinking and acting. Against this background, the article presents an analytical framework for distinguishing change from disaster impacts. Drawing from research in Sri Lanka and Indonesia, formal and informal changes after the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004 are examined and discussed against the background of the conceptual framework. The changes examined range from the commencement of the peace process in Aceh, Indonesia, to organizational and legal reforms in Sri Lanka. The article concludes that change-making processes after disasters need to be understood more in depth in order to derive important strategic policy and methodological lessons learned for the future, particularly in view of the increasing complexity and uncertainty in decision making due to climate change.     

The great Minoan eruption of Thera volcano and the ensuing tsunami in the Greek Archipelago

The eastern Mediterranean has been the cradle of many great civilizations. The history of the area consisted of glorious battles, heroic acts, and the rise and fall of great civilizations. But, sometimes, natural hazards became the cause for a new classification of the political, as well as of the military status quo of the region. The enormous eruption of the submarine volcano at the Greek island of Thera (Santorini) during the Bronze Age, around 1500 BC, is such a natural hazard. The tsunami generated by the eruption, literally wiped out the peace-loving Minoan civilization who inhabited the island of Crete. After the sea subsided, the configuration of the area was altered, and the decline of the Minoan principality on the Archipelago began. The present paper introduces evidence concerning the tsunami and states some of the after-effects which were partly responsible for the decline of the Minoan empire. All the information is gathered from historical sources and from recent research works. An effort has been made to include many of the theories introduced by various researchers through time concerning the event. Finally, information has been included from all known research, as well as from the author's own conclusions, in order to make the paper useful to future researchers.     

‘We do not want to leave our land’: Pacific ambassadors at the United Nations resist the category of ‘climate refugees’

The issue of the social geographical dimensions of climate change is timely and important. This paper sets out to explore one example of this: how people living in the Pacific who are most at risk of being made landless by climate change are portrayed in policy discourse, and how high-level international representatives of Pacific nations have responded to these portrayals. At the heart of this is contention over the portrayal of Pacific Island peoples as ‘climate refugees’. This paper analyses a number of documents since the 1980s, largely from non-governmental organisations (NGOs) that deploy the identity construct of ‘climate refugees’. Fieldwork undertaken at the United Nations in New York in 2004 also enabled seven interviews with national ambassadors representing Pacific small island states. Interviews revealed how Pacific ambassadors have responded to the category of ‘climate refugees’, and positioned themselves in the discursive field surrounding the climate change debate. A poststructuralist framework, drawing on Foucault’s ideas of discourse and subject categories provided a means to critically scrutinise and better understand how people from Pacific countries are imagined in the wider, global geopolitical arena, but crucially, how leaders from these nations also construct themselves in relation to climate change and its associated impacts.     

Characterization and assessment of the devastating natural hazards across the Canadian Prairie Provinces from 2009 to 2011

From 2009 to 2011, the Canadian Prairies were subjected to exceptionally variable precipitation regimes, ranging between record drought and unprecedented flooding. Adjacent regions concurrently experienced droughts and floods, and individual areas transitioned rapidly from pluvial to drought conditions and vice versa. Such events had major impacts; for example, damages from floods in the Assiniboine River Basin (ARB) have exceeded $1 billion, and forest fires ravaged the town of Slave Lake, Alberta. This study first characterizes, and then assesses, these devastating natural hazards in terms of their physical processes (across multiple spatial and temporal scales) related to both the spatially contrasting precipitation states and rapid temporal transitions between these states. Subtle differences in large-scale atmospheric flow had marked impacts on precipitation. Primary factors controlling the distribution and amount of precipitation included the location and persistence of key surface and upper-air features, as well as their interaction. Additionally, multiple events—rather than individual extremes—were responsible for the flooding over the Saskatchewan River Basin and the ARB. Very heavy rainfall events (≥25 mm d^?1) accounted for up to 55 % of warm season rain at some locations, and the frequency of heavy rainfall events was critical for determining whether a region experienced drought or pluvial conditions. This study has increased our knowledge of the characteristics, impacts and mechanisms of rapidly transitioning disparate precipitation states on the Canadian Prairies and will aid in better understanding both past and projected future hydro-climatic extremes in the region.     

Geospatial analysis of surface hydrological parameters for Kyushu Island,Japan

Defining the surface hydrological parameters represents a crucial factor for the sustainable development purposes. In areas with heavy precipitation and rugged topography, these parameters control the occurrence of some natural hazards, from which the flash flood gets the most attention. Traditional methods for the assessment of the surface hydrological parameters are costly, time-consuming and provide information for limited geographic extent. On the other hand, remotely sensed data provide a cost-effective, rapid and wide aerial coverage with adequate accuracy. Geospatial analysis of these remotely sensed data provides a suitable and effective method for the reconnaissance determination of the surface hydrological parameters. In this work, digital elevation models, Landsat 8 satellite images as well as digital maps of soil and land use for Kyushu Island were acquired and analyzed using geographic information system. Surface hydrological parameters were determined in terms of watershed boundaries, soil moisture, initial abstraction as well as flash flood potentiality. Results of this research show a great correlation with historical flash flood events that occurred in the island. The northern parts of the island are subjected to the threat of flash floods. A follow-up is recommended in some areas on the island. As a conclusion, the geospatial analysis performs an accurate reconnaissance method for hydrological analysis at regional scale, which in turn guides the detailed field observation saving time and cost.

     

Urbanization process and induced environmental geological hazards in China

Urbanization is a common development trend of countries all over the world, which is a mark of civilization and progress of human beings. The number of urbanization-induced environmental geological hazards has grown steadily in recent years and is receiving increased attention throughout the world. The purpose of this paper is to generalize China’s urbanization process and induced environmental geological hazards. Driving forces and characteristics of urbanization are briefly introduced in this study; specifically, the distribution of urban agglomerations is principally related to water resources, transportation and energy. Common geological hazards and particular ones in mountain city, mining city and coastal city are also summarized. The type and severity of hazards are different due to the differences of natural conditions and various urban functions. Main environmental geological hazards in cities are land subsidence, landslide and seawater intrusion, etc. Accordingly, reasons for these urbanization-induced geological hazards in different type of cities are analyzed and discussed. The research results may provide a clear perspective for urban geological hazard prevention, and suggestions for urban geological hazard control are pointed out.     

The Increasing Severity of Circumpacific Natural Disasters

The Ring of Fire guards the margins of the continents and island arcs bordering the Pacific Ocean. Active volcanic belts dominate the terrestrial landscape, and about 100 km offshore, oceanic trenches parallel the volcanoes. This topographically rugged, geologically unstable transition separating subaerial and submerged portions of the solid Earth is a reflection of convergent and transform lithospheric plate boundaries. The plates themselves are carried along by thermally driven mantle convection. Slow but inexorable differential motions along the plate junctions are responsible for the globe's most intense seismic activity as well as deadly eruptions. Tsunamis, avalanches, mudflows, and catastrophic land subsidence are common associates in this dynamic geologic realm. Moreover, the world's greatest ocean—a heat—transfer engine driven convectively by incoming solar radiation—spawns the most powerful tropical storms, producing devastating coastal flooding. Nowhere is the Pacific Rim free of these natural hazards. As the burgeoning populations of the Circumpacific nations occupy and more intensively develop and degrade ever—larger tracts along the Rim, the aggregate vulnerability of society to natural hazards will increase. To the extent that these same Circumpacific nations increasingly influence global economic systems, the cascade of suffering produced by episodic natural disasters and the rapid transmission of communicable diseases inevitably will produce more substantial financial as well as human and material losses. We can mitigate but not eliminate the adverse effects of natural hazards through a more complete understanding of their fundamental scientific causes, and by planning accordingly. But natural disaster reduction must be coordinated across and transcend political boundaries if we are to be more effective in the future.     

“Sinking islands” and the UNSC: Five modalities of mobilising science

Kiribati, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, the Maldives and other small island developing states in the Pacific are often incorrectly called “sinking islands.” With their highest points just a few meters above sea level, they face adverse impacts from climate change and especially sea level rise, which can cause them to disappear entirely or make their territory uninhabitable. After rather frustrating negotiations on other fora, the representatives of those states asked the UN Security Council to deal with their perilous situation in 2007. On the one hand, some countries used scientific argumentation to justify the introduction of this new security agenda. On the other hand, prominent UNSC members such as China and Russia, supported mainly by rapidly developing large countries, rejected it, arguing that the Security Council did not have the expertise to solve environmental problems. Since then the islands have echoed their plight to the UNSC in 2011 and 2015. This paper determines what roles individual countries ascribe to “experts” and “science” during UNSC negotiations. It examines how the authority of “experts” was exploited, which allowed certain countries to strike the issue of those islands from the UNSC agenda by calling for a more “scientific approach,” while others used “science” to widen the concept of security. The analysis of empirical data confirms the theory of Berling's three modalities when referring to science. Those modalities can be further extended by Foucault's conception of “will to truth” as a method of exclusion, and Chandler's theory of “empire in denial” as a way of evading responsibility, while maintaining power.     

Editorial

The Far North Queensland city of Cairns has a significant history of exposureto the impact of a wide range of natural hazards, most notably tropical cyclones.A program of publicly funded research, using Cairns as its `living laboratory'and aimed at understanding the risks posed by these hazards was a central partof Australia's involvement in the International Decade for Natural DisasterReduction. This program involved input from all three levels of governmentin Australia – national, state and local – as well as academe, industry and the Cairns community.This paper outlines the background to this program of research and an overview ofthe Cairns community that provides context for the other papers in this issue. Whilemuch of the scientific effort has been focused on developing a better understandingof the hazard phenomena involved, an important outcome of the Cairns research hasbeen the evolution of techniques by which to develop a better understanding of thecommunity at risk and strategies by which to reduce their risk.     

Organizing social resilience in the context of natural hazards: a research note

Organizational scholars increasingly use the term “resilience” to analyze options of dealing with uncertain context conditions. What do these scholars have to offer to researchers in the field of natural hazards? This research note makes three suggestions. First, the research note frames social resilience—in contrast to a rigid response to radical change—as a process of broadening information-based activities, loosening formal controls, and using slack resources of organizational members. Second, the research note argues to leave the meaning of social resilience undefined at the outset of a research project with the aim of building theory about resilience. It is expected that a useful definition emerges in empirical research. Third, organizational studies highlight specific social structures and processes of social resilience, for instance, small groups of individuals in organizational and interorganizational contexts. Organizing becomes a crucial factor for dealing with natural hazards.     

A support system for assessing local vulnerability to weather and climate

The changing number and nature of weather- and climate-related natural hazards is causing more communities to need to assess their vulnerabilities. Vulnerability assessments, however, often require considerable expertise and resources that are not available or too expensive for many communities. To meet the need for an easy-to-use, cost-effective vulnerability assessment tool for communities, a prototype online vulnerability assessment support system was built and tested. This prototype tool guides users through a stakeholder-based vulnerability assessment that breaks the process into four easy-to-implement steps. Data sources are integrated in the online environment so that perceived risks??defined and prioritized qualitatively by users??can be compared and discussed against the impacts that past events have had on the community. The support system is limited in scope, and the locations of the case studies do not provide a sufficiently broad range of sample cases. The addition of more publically available hazard databases combined with future improvements in the support system architecture and software will expand opportunities for testing and fully implementing the support system.