旅顺老铁山地震与大连地磁异常

本文用大连台1984、1985年的地磁资料,做了地磁短周期转换函数A、B值的计算和分析;用北京台、大连台1983年至1986年的地磁资料,做了地磁总场F相关分析和垂直分量Z差值分析.结果表明,在旅顺老铁山发生的M_L=4.5级地震前,大连地磁出现了前兆异常.     

静海地震台地磁短周期变化及其在地震短临预报中的应用

近年来的一些研究表明，由于地震前孕震区地下介质的电性结构的变化，将导致地磁短周期转换函数发生异常变化。通过对地震前后的地磁短周期转换函数的参数的计算、分析和研究，有可能提取出可靠的地震短临前兆异常（曾小苹等，１９９０）。为了进一步开展对该方法研究工作并使其在我区地震预测预报研究中得到应用，我们使用了静海台的地磁记录资料，分析计算了该台地磁短周期转换函数在地震前后的变化情况，确立了该方法应用天津地区地震预报的短临异常特征及指标，取得了较好的效果。     

地磁转换函数在上海及邻近地区地震预报中的应用

地磁转换函数的变化已被广泛用于中短期地震预报。本文利用佘山地震台１９７７￣１９９６年和崇明地震台１９８３￣１９９６年的地磁短周期资料处理所得的转换函数变化,监视跟踪上海及邻近地区地震活动。通过几次中强地震震例的总结,提出用地磁转换函数方法来预报上海及其邻近地区地震的一些判断。用此方法,曾较好地预报过１９９０年常熟５．１级地震和１９９６年长江口以东海中６．１级地震。     

地磁短周期转换函数在地震预报中的应用

使用琼中地磁台、肇庆地磁台2004—2006年的高精度数字化地磁观测资料,采用地磁短周期转换函数研究方法,系统地分析了琼中、肇庆地磁台周边地区在此期间的地磁异常和地震的对应关系。研究结果表明,在2004年9月17日阳江M_L 5.2地震前,琼中、肇庆地磁台的地磁短周期转换函数A、B,有比较明显的前兆异常。     

乌鲁木齐台地磁短周期变化与邻区地震

利用转换函数方法计算自理了乌鲁木齐台１９９０年１月～１９９７年１２月地磁短周期Ｔ为９～２００ｍｉｎ的复转换函数Ａ、Ｂ之模Ａ、Ｂ、总方差σz以及帕金森矢量,并对其 在乌鲁木齐地区２５０ｋｍ范围内１５次４．０～５．７级地震发生前后的变化进行了研究。结果表明：不同周期的转换函数Ａ、Ｂ以及总方差σz值在震前均有明显异常。     

喀什台地磁短周期变化特征与周围地震对应关系

在地震孕育过程中,由于应力的集中、积累、释放,使得应变场内介质磁性发生变化。特别是短周期的地磁异常变化与地震发生前后的地磁扰动密切相关。采用地磁短周期转换函数方法,用喀什地磁台1990－1998年的地磁观测资料,分析计算得出1990年以来几次6级以上强震包括伽师地震前后,周期为9－200分钟的地磁短周期转换函数│A│、│B│、总方差σz及帕金森矢量参数、相应的频率响应关系。     

广州台地磁短周期变化的研究

本文利用广州地磁台1961年4月至1963年3月记录到的连续磁扰变化,经过模数转换、谱分析和数字滤波,得到了大量不同短周期的磁变事件,再将周期相同的事件取三个月滑动组合求得转换函数。结果表明:广州台不同短周期的磁扰矢量△B在球极坐标上的投影均趋于同一水平面;转换函数A、B及帕金森矢量(Parkinson)长度CP随时间的异常变化与广东省河源县1962年3月19日Ms6.1级地震有关。本文还讨论了该台转换函数A、帕金森矢量长度CP及倾角I与地磁周期的关系,得到周期为9至40分钟时的A、CP、I之年均值与磁变周期呈线性相关。故认为研究广州台地磁周期小于40分钟的转换函数随时间的变化,可获得以电导率异常为标志的地震前兆信息。     

北黄海M＿L5．0级地震与震磁效应

１９９３年１２月３１日北黄海５．０级地震前，在辽宁省１０个地磁台中，大连台和营口台与标准台铁岭核旋总场联台差值△Ｆ，分别出现了５－６ｎＴ的负异常，并在时间、形态、幅度上准同步，据此辽宁省地震局预报研究室地磁组提出了中短期预报意见。     

大连台地磁短周期转换函数变化与岫岩5.4级地震

在地磁台记录到的地磁日益信息中 ,除了地磁场的长期变化和外空磁场对地球的直接影响外 ,也包含了地球内部介质对外空磁场的反射信息。它反映了地球内部介质的电性结构 ,而地球内部介质电性结构的变化则反映出孕震区应力积累所产生的异常膨胀。因而对于地磁反射信息的研究是一个值得深入探讨的地震预报方法。林云芳等应用地磁测探 (GDS)原理 ,用地磁短周期转换函数法研究了我国的一些震例的震磁关系 ,并给出了实用化的地磁短周期转换函数法预报地震的软件。我们应用这个软件对大连台 1998年 1月～ 2 0 0 0年 7月地磁资料进行了处理 ,发现 …     

河南地磁短周期变化特征

为了研究河南地区地磁短周期变化的特征,１９９６年１０月至１１月在该地区布设了近似南北向的两条临时测线,东测线由河南信阳至汤阴,西测线由河南西峡至山西曲沃,在测线上进行了地磁短周期变化三分量的同步观测,在３ｍｉｎ至２ｈ周期范围内统计计算了各测点各周期成分的地磁垂直转换函数及水平转换函数,通过地磁转换函数的分析,给出了该地区地磁短周期变化空间,周期分布概况。西峡至曲沃测线,除曲沃外垂直分量没有出现反向     

A Monte Carlo study of rainfall forecasting with a stochastic model

A procedure for short-term rainfall forecasting in real-time is developed and a study of the role of sampling on forecast ability is conducted. Ground level rainfall fields are forecasted using a stochastic space-time rainfall model in state-space form. Updating of the rainfall field in real-time is accomplished using a distributed parameter Kalman filter to optimally combine measurement information and forecast model estimates. The influence of sampling density on forecast accuracy is evaluated using a series of a simulated rainfall events generated with the same stochastic rainfall model. Sampling was conducted at five different network spatial densities. The results quantify the influence of sampling network density on real-time rainfall field forecasting. Statistical analyses of the rainfall field residuals illustrate improvement in one hour lead time forecasts at higher measurement densities.     

Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Aims And Scope

正This journal is established by the Institute of Engineering Mechanics(IEM),China Earthquake Administration,to promote scientific exchange between Chinese and foreign scientists and engineers so as to improve the theory and practice of earthquake hazards mitigation,preparedness,and recovery.To accomplish this purpose,the journal aims to attract a balanced number of papers between Chinese and     

Solute concentrations in the lower niger river and the source rock contribution

Water quality analyses for the Niger River for the 1980/81 hydrological year are presented. The samples were collected from the main river at Lokoja, and from two main tributaries, the Kaduna and the Benue Rivers. Different water types were distinguished by the concentrations of major ions. The type Ca > Na > Mg > K - HCO₃ > SO₄ > Cl was represented at all stations during at least part of the year. Chloride was found to dominate the sulphate ion in the Kaduna and Niger, while the Benue maintained a higher concentration of sulphate relative to chloride all year round. Distinct patterns of seasonal variation in the ion concentrations were observed, particularly for the samples collected at Lokoja. Low ion concentrations were prominent during periods of high discharge, while low flow periods coincided with high dissolved ion concentrations. The contribution of rainwater to the total dissolved solids in the river waters was assessed indirectly using rainwater chemistry data from the Gulf of Guinea. The estimated rainwater contribution to the Lower Niger amounts to 5.15 mg 1^?1. Geochemical weathering calculations involving reactions of the four major minerals of granitic rocks - anorthite, biotite, albite, and K-feldspar - with carbon dioxide and water, can account for the average water composition of the Lower Niger. The proportion of the ionic components was also related to the occurrence of the respective element in the minerals.     

Scenario predictions for potential near-field and far-field earthquakes affecting Hong Kong

Historical earthquakes noted in the written records of the South China region, including Hong Kong, are not well delineated along identified prominent fault sources. Despite the lack of any definitive, localised trend in the spatial distribution of seismic activity in the region, there does appear to be some major disparity in the seismic activity rates (especially for large magnitude earthquakes) between the near-field and the far-field regions of Hong Kong. Despite this observation, previous studies of the regional seismic activity and seismic ground motion hazard (the latter using a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, PSHA) have considered very broad source zone regions, in which uniform levels of seismic activity have been assumed. The present paper further scrutinises this broad source zone (BSZ) approach by adopting a novel expanding circular disc (ECD) method to determine the rates of earthquake recurrence. Such a method is intended to counter-check previously developed models by determining earthquake scenario events in terms of magnitude–distance (M–R) pairs or combinations, having defined values of average return period. Unlike the BSZ approach, the ECD method specifically accounts for the supposed variations in the seismic activity rates between events in the near-field and the far-field of Hong Kong.The form of the developed method is particularly suited to the determination of design-level earthquake ground motions for bedrock sites, since it assumes a directionally-independent attenuation model as described in the companion paper. It is found that, whilst the BSZ approach may indicate the overall average levels of hazard that are representative of the South China region as a whole, it does not capture the large disparity in seismic activity rates between near-field and far-field events. This important feature is expected to have a significant impact upon engineering assessments of the seismic safety of structures in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the South China region. For example, it is found that for events with M≥6, the seismic activity rate (normalised by time and area) in the very far-field is around 3.5 times larger than in the near-field and medium-field of Hong Kong. The resulting design M-R combinations, covering a range of return periods from 70 to 2500 years, are limited, for very long return periods and for distant events, by the maximum credible earthquake (MCE) magnitude. Intensive research to determine this seismic hazard parameter is recommended, in order to refine further the results of the ECD analysis, which presently conservatively assumes the MCE to range between M=6 in the near-field of Hong Kong to M=8 in the very far-field, at distances greater than 280 km from Hong Kong.     

Depositional ages and characteristics of Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in southeastern Mongolia

Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales are widely distributed in southeastern Mongolia. Due to the high organic carbon content of oil shale, many geochemical studies and petroleum exploration have been conducted. Although most of the oil shales are considered to be Early Cretaceous in age, a recent study reveals that some were deposited in the Middle Jurassic. The present study aims at establishing depositional ages and characteristics of the Jurassic and Cretaceous lacustrine deposits in Mongolia. The Lower Cretaceous Shinekhudag Formation is about 250 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale and dolomite. The Middle Jurassic Eedemt Formation is about 150 m thick and composed of alternating beds of shale, dolomitic marl, and siltstone. The alternations of shale and dolomite in both formations were formed by lake level changes, reflecting precipitation changes. Shales were deposited in the center of a deep lake during highstand, while dolomites were formed by primary precipitation during lowstand. Based on the radiometric age dating, the Shinekhudag Formation was deposited between 123.8 ±2.0 Ma and 118.5 ±0.9 Ma of the early Aptian. The Eedemt Formation was deposited at around 165–158 Ma of Callovian–Oxfordian. The calculated sedimentation rate of the Shinekhudag Formation is between 4.7 ±2.6 cm/ky and 10.0 ±7.6 cm/ky. Shales in the Shinekhudag Formation show micrometer‐scale lamination, consisting of algal organic matter and detrital clay mineral couplets. Given the average thickness of micro‐laminae and calculated sedimentation rate, the micro‐lamination is most likely of varve origin. Both Middle–Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous lacustrine oil shales were deposited in intracontinental basins in the paleo‐Asian continent. Tectonic processes and basin evolution basically controlled the deposition of these oil shales. In addition, enhanced precipitation under humid climate during the early Aptian and the Callovian–Oxfordian was another key factor inducing the widespread oil shale deposition in Mongolia.     

THEORETICAL APPROACH TO THE SOLUTION OF THE INFILTRATION PROBLEM

ABSTRACT

The one-dimensional transient downward entry of water in unsaturated soils is investigated theoretically. The mathematical equation describing the infiltration process is derived by combining Darcy's dynamic equation of motion with the continuity and thermodynamic state equations adjusted for the unsaturated flow conditions. The resulting equation together with the corresponding initial and boundary conditions constitues a mathematical initial boundary value problem requiring the solution of a nonlinear partial differential equation of the parabolic type. The volumetric water content is taken as the dependent variable and the time and the position along the vertical direction are taken as the independent variables. The governing equation is of such nature that a solution exists for t > 0 and is uniquely determined if two relationships are defined, together with the specified state of the system, at the initial time t = 0 and at the two boundaries. The two required relations are those of pressure versus permeability and pressure versus volumetric water content.

Since the partial differential equation has strong non-linear terms, a discrete solution is obtained by approximating the derivatives with finite-differences at discrete mesh points in the solution domain and integrated for the corresponding initial and boundary conditions. The use of an implicit difference scheme is employed in order to generate a system of simultaneous non-linear equations that has to be solved for each time increment. For n mesh points the two boundary conditions provide two equations and the repetition of the recurrence formula provides n—2 equations, the total being n equations for each time increment. The solution of the system is obtained by matrix inversion and particularly with a back-substitution technique. The FORTRAN statements used for obtaining the solution with an electronic digital computer (IBM 704) are presented together with the input data.

Analysis of the errors involved in the numerical solution is made and the stability and convergence of the solution of the approximate difference equation to that of the differential equation is investigated. The method applied is that of making a Fourier series expansion of a whole line of errors and then following the progress of the general term of the series expansion and also the behavior of each constituent harmonic. The errors (forming a continuous function of points in an abstract Banach space) are represented by vectors with the Fourier coefficients constituting a second Banach space. The amplification factor of the difference equation is shown to be always less than unity which guarantees the stability of the employed implicit recurrence scheme.

Experiments conducted on a vertical column packed uniformly with very fine sand, show a satisfactory agreement between the theoretically and experimentally obtained values. Many experimental results are shown in an attempt to explain the infiltration phenomenon with emphasis on the shape and movement of the wet front, and the effects of the degree of compaction, initial water content and deaired water on the infiltration rate.     

Late Permian post‐ophiolitic trondhjemites from Central Iran: a mark of subduction role in growth of Paleozoic continental crust

Late Permian trondhjemites in the Anarak area occur as stocks and dykes, which cross cut the Anarak ophiolite and its overlying metasedimentary rocks, and are exposed along the northern Anarak east–west main faults. These leucocratic intrusive bodies have enclaves of all ophiolitic units and metamorphic rocks. They are composed of amphibole, plagioclase (oligoclase), quartz, zircon and muscovite. Secondary minerals are chlorite (pycnochlorite), epidote, albite, magnetite and calcite. Whole‐rock major‐ and trace‐element analyses reveal that they are characterized by high SiO ₂ (67.8–71.0 wt%), Al ₂ O ₃ (14.9–17.1 wt%) and Na ₂ O (5.3–8.6 wt%), low K ₂ O (0.1–1.5 wt%; average: 0.8 wt%), low Rb/Sr ratio (0.01–0.40; average: 0.09), low Y (3–6 ppm), negative Ti, Nb and Ta anomalies, slightly negative or positive Eu anomaly, LREE enrichment and fractionated HREE. These rocks present 2 to 40 times enrichment in inclined chondrite‐normalized REE patterns. Geochemical characteristics of the Anarak trondhjemites all reflect melting of a mafic protolith at more than 10 kbar. The field evidence and whole‐rock chemistry reveal that these rocks have been crystallized from magmas derived from melting of subducted Anarak oceanic crust. This study reveals that melting of garnet amphibolite was an important element of continent formation in the study area.