中国沿岸相对海面变化的本征分析和预测

利用经验正交函数的方法，将平均海面分解为正交时，空函数积的代数和。采用起主导作用的正交函数进行组合，得到修正的海平面变化值，它消除了某些随机的影响。去掉平均海面主要时间本征函数中的主要周期部分，求得剩余部分的变化率，乘以空间本征函数可得各站平均海面的变化速率，对未来的时间本征函数作出预报，便可得到未来的平均海面预报值。     

平均高潮位记录分析淤泥质海岸的相对海面变化--以江苏淤泥质海岸为例

在研究相对海面变化时,常常用实测潮位记录来分析相对海面的变化速率。淤泥质海岸的验潮站多设在入海河流的闸F。由于拦门沙发育等因素的影响,闸下测到的潮位不能准确反映低潮时的潮位变化,因此常常采用平均高潮位记录来分析相对海面的变化。本文通过对平均高潮位、平均潮位和平均海平面之间关系的统计分析,得出平均高潮位与平均潮位以及平均海平面变化速率之间的关系。并对江苏沿海6个验潮站33a的潮位记录进行分析,得出江苏沿海此期间的相对海面变化速率为0．29～1.00cm／a。     

利用平均海面推定青岛水准原点地区的地壳垂直运动

通常利用平均海面所求某点地壳垂直运动是一种视运动,如若干年平均海面实际升降变化为V,陆地实际垂直运动为U,则视垂直运动为(U-V).在推定地区地壳垂直运动,使用平均海面数据时应注意其区域性和周期性的变化.文中以有代表性的平均海面变化结果为依据,求出青岛国家水准原点地区地壳垂直运动速率λn=(+2.2±0.5)mm/a.     

关于工程潮位计算的若干问题

１　引言工程潮位是指在近海或沿岸工程设计中需要考虑的潮位数据。这些潮位数据通常可分为二类：一类是正常条件下的潮位;另一类是极值条件下的潮位。所谓正常条件,就是指在正常气候状况下对应不同天文条件的平均潮位;极值条件则是在极端气象条件或特定天文条件下出现的极值高、低潮位。本文就工程潮位的一些常用计算方法作一综述,对在实际应用中可能产生的误差作了评估,并提出了尽可能减少误差的途径和建议。２　关于平均海面平均海面是一定时期内海面的平均值,例如：日平均海面、月平均海面、年平均海面和多年平均海面等。通常平均…     

不同时段下海平面相关参数的差异分析

验潮站观测的海面高度数据是监测海平面变化以及确定平均海面时常使用的重要基础观测信息,针对平均海面以及相对海平面变化速率在不同时段观测资料下结果的差异进行了分析,统计了不同时间尺度平均海面确定的差异,并设计了两组数据实验,具体讨论了不同年份19年观测以及观测时长逐年累加两种情况下,相对海平面变化速率确定结果的规律。实验结果表明,月平均海面具有明显的季节性变化,最大互差可达几十厘米,1年平均海面基本稳定,19年平均海面精度可达厘米级;利用19年的观测资料确定的相对海平面变化速率反映的观测时段内海平面的变化情况,各时段结果差异较大且可靠性较低;为获得稳定可靠的相对海平面变化速率,观测时长应至少涵盖两个潮汐变化周期。     

中国沿岸海平面变化的一种本征分析和随机动态联合模型

本文将经验正交函数法与随机动态方法结合起来,分析了中国沿岸5个站的海平面变化.由于空间本征函数在短时间可认为不变,用随机动态方法分析各主要时间本征函数,最后采用非线性最小二乘法求出各主要时间本征函数的线性增长速率,分别乘上相应的空间本征函数便得到各站的相对海面线性增长速率,对未来的时间本征函数作出预报,从而得到未来的平均海面预报值.各站均衡基准下的海平面线变速率平均为0.24cm/a.     

中国平均海面与国家高程基准之间的偏差

本文以我国正式公布的1985国家高程基准为依据,将国家Ⅰ等水准位测量资料与全国各主要验潮站测定的当地多年平均海面联系起来,统一推算出各地平均海面与1985国家高程基准之间的高程,定量地讨论了二者之间的偏差特性并分析其可能的成因。     

卫星高度计绝对定标中海面高梯度的计算

给出了通过平均海面高模型计算海面高梯度的具体方法,选择DTU13、CNES_CLS15、WHU2013 3种模型计算了不同海域近岸比较点海面高梯度值,随机选择的30个近岸比较点处的计算结果表明:使用3种模型计算得到的海面高梯度值之间的标准差均值为0.19cm/km。在卫星高度计定标的具体应用中,由海面高梯度得到的海面高差改正量的误差应不超过0.3cm。     

同步改正法平均海面传递应用于海南岛礁测绘的探讨

同步改正法因其特点和优势被广泛应用于平均海面传递,文中从平均海面的理论定义和实际计算两方面出发,对同步改正平均海面传递法原理进行了论述。利用海南岛周边的长期验潮站数据,按单站传递和多站组网传递分别分析了同步改正平均海面传递的规律。结果表明,单站传递同步观测10 d能满足岛礁测绘对垂直基准面精度的要求,采用多站组网传递能较明显地减少同步时长较短时的极限误差。当采用多站组网平均海面传递同步观测5 d,其极限误差可达10 cm以内,建议在同步观测时间有限时采用该方法。结合海南岛验潮站和岛礁分布情况,同步改正平均海面传递法应用于海南岛礁测绘是可行的。     

时移效应在海道测量长期平均海面传递中的应用研究

为剖析时移效应对长期平均海面传递的影响,首先从理论上研究了时移效应的数学模型,接着基于中国海区验潮站的实测数据进行了时移效应数值计算及长期平均海面传递试验验证。结论揭示了时移效应的变化规律及其在不同的观测时段长度下对长期平均海面传递精度的影响。     

RCP4.5情景下预测21世纪南海海平面变化

结合卫星高度计资料和SODA温盐数据,本文利用CCSM(Community Climate System Model version4)气候系统模式在代表性浓度路径RCP4.5情景下对全球海平面变化趋势的预测模拟结果作为强迫场,用POP模式模拟预测21世纪南海海平面长期趋势变化及空间分布。模拟结果显示,在RCP4.5情景下,南海海域在21世纪末10年平均海平面相对于20世纪末10年上升了15~39cm,明显上升海域位于中南半岛东部的南海中部、南部海域和吕宋海峡东西两侧海域,上升值最大可达39cm。如果加上格陵兰和南极等陆地冰川融化的影响,21世纪南海总海平面上升值将可能达到35~75cm。南海比容海平面明显上升区域位于吕宋岛东面的深水海域,广东沿岸流和吕宋冷涡之间海域,以及中南半岛东南部海域。总比容海平面的变化主要来自热比容,盐比容贡献比较小。南海南部和西部比容海平面上升速率较低,如加里曼丹岛西北侧、泰国湾和海南岛西侧有下降趋势。     

关于平均海面变化研究的若干问题

论述平均海平面、海面、潮面、平均潮面和海拔的概念、定义。提出研究平均海平面的一些基本问题，以及尚待深入探讨的几个问题。给出国内外的若干研究成果     

An Improved 20-Year Arctic Ocean Altimetric Sea Level Data Record

For ocean and climate research, it is essential to get long-term altimetric sea level data that is as accurate as possible. However, the accuracy of the altimetric data is frequently degraded in the interior of the Arctic Ocean due to the presence of seasonal or permanent sea ice. We have reprocessed ERS-1/2/Envisat satellite altimetry to develop an improved 20-year sea level dataset for the Arctic Ocean. We have developed both an along-track dataset and three-day gridded sea level anomaly (SLA) maps from September 1992 to April 2012. A major improvement in data coverage was gained by tailoring the standard altimetric editing criteria to Arctic conditions. The new reprocessed data has significant increased data coverage with between 4 and 10 times the amount of data in regions such as the Beaufort Gyre region compared with AVISO and RADS datasets. This allows for a more accurate estimation of sea level changes from satellite altimetry in the Arctic Ocean. The reprocessed dataset exhibit a mean sea level trend of 2.1 ± 1.3 mm/year (without Glacial Isostatic Adjustment correction) covering the Arctic Ocean between 66°N and 82°N with significant higher spatial coherency in the ice-covered regions than the RADS and DUACS datasets.     

日本广岛湾非潮汐的水位变化

Nontidal sea level changes generated in Hiroshima Bay of the Seto-Inland Sea in Japan are studied over various time scales, from the sub-tidal （2 d to 1 month） to inter-annual scales （〉2 years）. The total sea level variation produces a standard deviation （STD） of 12.5 cm. The inter-annual component of the sea level variation in Hiroshima Bay oscillates with a STD of 3.4 cm, forming a long-term trend of 4.9 mm/a. The STD of the sea level variation is 9.8 cm for the seasonal component （8 months to 2 years） and 4.7 cm for the intra-seasonal one （1 month to 8 months）. Significant sea level variations with a STD of 4.2 cm also occur in the sub-tidal range. Special attention is paid to the sub-tidal sea level changes. It is found that the upwelling and associated transient sea level changes generated along the north coast of Hiroshima Bay （opened southward） by the strong northerly wind, play a significant role in sub-tidal sea level changes. The transient sea level changes are over 10 cm in most cases when caused by typhoons that pass through the Pacific Ocean offthe Kii Peninsula, located at about 400 km east of Hiroshima Bay. Reasonable sea level changes are evaluated by the balance of pressure forces at the onshore and offshore boundary of the study domain.     

西北太平洋中国沿海海面倾斜及其机理初探

海面倾斜与高程基准密切相关,它已经受到大地测量学界和海洋学界的重视.进一步讨论了大地水准的测量精度,指出了大地(几何)水准与沿海验潮资料的不符是由于海面的倾斜;分析了海面倾斜的机理,其中包括海流、海水密度分布、气压、台风引起的破碎波等的作用;提出了用海水异常密度的三维分布计算大地水准面的扰动,实质上它反映了海面的倾斜,该量占大地水准测量结果的73%,这进一步说明密度的异常乃是我国沿海海面倾斜的主要原因.     

Low-Frequency Variations of the North Atlantic Sea Level Measured by TOPEX/Poseidon Altimetry

Eight years of sea surface height data derived from the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter, are analyzed in order to identify long- and a-periodic behavior of the North Atlantic sea level. For easy interpolation, sea surface height data are converted into sea surface topography data using the geoid derived from EGM96 to degree 360. Principal Component Analysis is used to identify the most dominant spatial and temporal variations. In order to separate dominant periodic signals, a yearly and a half-yearly oscillation, as well as alias effects from imperfect ocean tide corrections, are estimated independently by a Harmonic Analysis and subtracted. The residuals are smoothed by a 90-day moving average filter and examined once again by a PCA, which identifies a low-frequency variation with a period of approximately 6-7 years and an amplitude of about 1 dm, as well as a large sea level change of partially more than ±1 dm within only few months. This sea level change can also be seen in yearly and seasonal sea level residuals. Furthermore, the analysis shows a significant sea level change in 1998 occurring almost over the whole North Atlantic, which is not clearly identified by the PCA. Similar results are obtained by analyzing sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data.     

Low-Frequency Variations of the North Atlantic Sea Level Measured by TOPEX/Poseidon Altimetry

Eight years of sea surface height data derived from the TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter, are analyzed in order to identify long- and a-periodic behavior of the North Atlantic sea level. For easy interpolation, sea surface height data are converted into sea surface topography data using the geoid derived from EGM96 to degree 360. Principal Component Analysis is used to identify the most dominant spatial and temporal variations. In order to separate dominant periodic signals, a yearly and a half-yearly oscillation, as well as alias effects from imperfect ocean tide corrections, are estimated independently by a Harmonic Analysis and subtracted. The residuals are smoothed by a 90-day moving average filter and examined once again by a PCA, which identifies a low-frequency variation with a period of approximately 6–7 years and an amplitude of about 1 dm, as well as a large sea level change of partially more than ±1 dm within only few months. This sea level change can also be seen in yearly and seasonal sea level residuals. Furthermore, the analysis shows a significant sea level change in 1998 occurring almost over the whole North Atlantic, which is not clearly identified by the PCA. Similar results are obtained by analyzing sea surface temperature and sea level pressure data.     

基于CMIP5模式的南海海平面未来变化预估

Future potential sea level change in the South China Sea(SCS) is estimated by using 24 CMIP5 models under different representative concentration pathway(RCP) scenarios. By the end of the 21 st century(2081–2100 relative to 1986–2005), the multimodel ensemble mean dynamic sea level(DSL) is projected to rise 0.9, 1.6, and 1.1 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a total sea level rise(SLR) of 40.9, 48.6, and 64.1 cm in the SCS. It indicates that the SCS will experience a substantial SLR over the 21 st century, and the rise is only marginal larger than the global mean SLR. During the same period, the steric sea level(SSL) rise is estimated to be 6.7, 10.0, and 15.3 cm under the three scenarios, respectively, which accounts only for 16%, 21% and 24% of the total SLR in this region. The changes of the SSL in the SCS are almost out of phase with those of the DSL for the three scenarios. The central deep basin has a slightly weak DSL rise, but a strong SSL rise during the 21 st century, compared with the north and southwest shelves.     

粤西海岸全新世中期以来海平面升降与海岸沙坝潟湖发育过程

沙坝湖海岸是一种重要的海岸类型。文章论述了粤西海岸全新世中期以来在海平面升降影响下沙坝湖地貌的发育过程,得出如下结论：距今7000a至5000a．海平面曾上升至＋4m,由于大陆架泥沙的向陆堆积,形成了揭湖拦湾沙坝的后缘高突部分：以后海平面逐步下降至现今位置,它所形成的海退沙楔发育成低矮的向海沙坝和海滩;距今2000a,海平面趋于相对稳定;现今海平面微升,出现了海岸侵蚀。文章还对该地在海平面升降影响下的海岸泥沙运移机制以及海岸高海面堆积和现今海岸侵蚀现象作了解析。     

中国沿海增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系

本文通过对中国沿海25个观测站水位资料的分析,初步探讨了中国沿海1980-2012年增减水的变化特征及与海平面变化的关系。结果表明:（1）中国沿海增减水的季节变化特征明显,相邻站由于受到的气象状况相同,其沿海增减水变化的过程相近,但是变化幅度存在较大差异。从空间分布看,沿海增减水的变化幅度呈现中间大南北小的区域特征,自长江口至广东沿海,增减水的年变化幅度最大,年变幅平均为5.0~7.5 cm;南海周边及北部湾沿海,增减水的年变化幅度次之,年变幅平均为4.0~5.5 cm;自渤海至黄海沿海,增减水的年变化幅度较小,年变幅平均为3.3~3.5 cm。（2）从时间变化看,1980-2012年中国沿海年平均增减水长期基本没有趋势性变化,但明显存在2至5年的周期性变化信号,该信号的震荡幅度为0.1 cm。经过高频滤波后,对沿海月平均增减水序列与Niño3.4指数进行相关性分析,相关系数为-0.5,该相关系数通过了显著性检验,说明中国沿海的增减水变化与ENSO事件呈现负相关关系。（3）中国沿海增减水的长期变化及空间分布特征均与海平面变化不同。1980-2012年,中国沿海海平面的上升速率为2.9 mm/a,而增减水长期基本无趋势性变化;另外,其季节变化与海平面的季节变化从时间和区域上均不存在一致性。（4）但是,短期海平面的变化与增减水有关,并且增减水对短期海平面的贡献根据其具体情况而定,增水幅度大且持续时间长的过程对短期海平面有抬升作用,其贡献率最大可达65%;反之,减水幅度大且持续时间长的过程则对短期海平面有降低的作用。