On the anomalous land uplift and aseismic creep prior to the 1976 Tangshan earthquake

A spatio-temporal analysis based on the data of eleven repeated levellings around the Tangshan region prior to the 1976 earthquake indicates that an uplift lasting for 2 years, from 1968 through 1969. with a magnitude of 50 mm, occurred in the epicentral area.Aseismic creep superimposed on the accumulated strain has been found in the vicinity of Tangshan and Baodi along both the Tangshan and the Jiyunhe faults.Assuming uniform strain accumulation and elastic dislocation, theoretical values of displacement at the various dislocation sites have been calculated and, using the least squares method, the optimal values of strain accumulation and the parameters of the creep faults in different years have been determined.The creep fault under Tangshan, a right-lateral normal fault, strikes N47°E and dips S87°E. and is 8 km long and 6 km wide. The upper boundary of the fault lies 2 km deep. The strike-slip and dip-slip offsets are, respectively, 104 cm and 8cm. The average rate of strain accumulation amounts to 0.9 × 10⁻⁷/yr. Creep at the fault amounted to 18.6 cm/yr and 1.4 cm/yr, respectively, in the strike and dip directions over the period 1969–1975. The Jiyunhe fault, although of smaller dimensions, has experienced a greater rate of creep than the Tangshan fault.A correlation of the above-mentioned uplift and creep with that of the Tangshan earthquake suggests that the uplift might have been a manifestation of the early development of the earthquake and that aseismic creep may be one of the precursory phenomena of shallow earthquakes. The sequence of processes preceding the Tangshan earthquake may be described as: strain accumulation-land upliftaseismic creep-inverse land deformation (or decrease in creep rate)-earthquake.     

Quasi-static slip on the plate boundary associated with the 2003 M8.0 Tokachi-oki and 2004 M7.1 off-Kushiro earthquakes, Japan

We analyzed small repeating earthquakes recorded over a 13-year period and GPS data recorded over an 8-month period to estimate interplate quasi-static slip associated with the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M8.0) and the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake (M7.1). The repeating-earthquake analysis revealed that the slip rate near the source region of the Tokachi-oki earthquake was relatively low (< 5 cm/year) prior to the earthquake; however, in the last 3 years leading up to the event, a minor acceleration in slip occurred upon the deeper extension of the coseismic slip area of the earthquake. Repeating-earthquake and GPS data indicate that large amounts of afterslip occurred around the rupture area following the earthquake; the afterslip mainly propagated to the east of the coseismic slip area. We also infer that the occurrence of the 2004 off-Kushiro earthquake, located about 100 km northeast of the epicenter of the Tokachi-oki earthquake, was advanced by the afterslip associated with the Tokachi-oki earthquake.     

2012年缅甸德贝金M7.0地震及其地表破裂特征

文章以地质地貌与地震遗迹野外调查获得的第一手资料为基础,重点介绍了实皆断裂的活动习性、2012年地震产生的建筑物破坏与地震地表破裂带特征.实皆断裂是一条规模宏大,以右旋走滑为主的全新世活动断裂,其水平滑动速率为18～20 mm/a.历史上沿实皆断裂曾发生10余次7级以上强震,迄今保留有1839年曼德勒因瓦M 8、193...     

Anomalous change in atmospheric radon concentration sourced from broad crustal deformation: A case study of the 1995 Kobe earthquake

Before the Kobe earthquake, an anomalous increase in atmospheric Rn concentration was observed. By separating the measured concentration of atmospheric Rn into three components according to the distance from the monitoring station, the variation of Rn exhalation rate can be estimated for the respective area using the daily minimum and maximum concentrations. The mean rate of Rn exhalation gradually increased in an area of 20 km around the monitoring station, becoming five times higher than normal in the period between October 1994 and the date of the earthquake. This area had a large co-seismic displacement of up to 30 cm, which roughly corresponds to the crustal strain of 10⁻⁶-order, and it is considered the main source for the atmospheric Rn prior to the Kobe earthquake. Analyses revealed that the pre-seismic change in the atmospheric Rn concentration exhibited an anomalous pattern which would yield information on the spatial distribution of the mechanical response of the ground.     

灰色系统理论在东北地震活跃期预测研究中的应用

运用灰色系统理论,对东北地区下一个地震活跃期开始时间以及活跃期内可能发生的最大地震的震级进行预测。分别取两个地震活跃期之间的时间间隔和每一活跃期内的最大地震的震级为原始数据列,用五步建模法建立灰色GM(1,1)模型。 用所建模型进行预测,得到东北地区下一个地震活跃期约于1997年开始,活跃期内可能发生的最大地震为7.2级。文中对预测结果的多解性进行了探讨。     

Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.     

PSHA of Van province for performance assessment using spectrally matched strong ground motion records

Within the framework of the performance based earthquake engineering, site specific earthquake spectra for Van province has been obtained. It is noteworthy that, in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, as a first stage data from geological studies and records from the instrumental period were compiled to make a seismic source characterization for the study region. The probabilistic seismic hazard curves were developed based on selected appropriate attenuation relationships, at rock sites, with a probability of exceedance 2, 10 and 50% in 50 yrs period. The obtained results are compared with the spectral responses proposed for seismic evaluation and retrofit of building structure in Turkish Earthquake Code (2007), section 7. The acceleration response spectrums obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis are matched to adjust earthquake accelerograms recorded during the 2011 Van earthquakes by using SeismoMatch v2.0 software. The aim of this procedure is to obtain a set of reasonable earthquake input motions for the seismic evaluation of existing buildings.     

Palaeoseismicity of the Dinar fault, SW Turkey

The NW–SE-trending Dinar fault is an active normal fault upon which the 1 October 1995 earthquake ( M  = 6.1) occurred. The 1995 earthquake resulted in a c. 10-km-long surface rupture with the south side down-thrown by 50 cm. Investigations of two trench sites perpendicular to the 1995 rupture suggest at least two prior large earthquakes in historical times. Radiocarbon dates and historical records constrain the age of events between 1500 bc and ad 53, event 2 possibly coinciding with the earthquake that damaged Dinar (the ancient city of Apamea Kibotos) in c. 80 bc and event 1 around 1500 bc. Surface displacements determined for events 1 and 2, compared to the 1995 surface faulting, indicate that M > 6.8 earthquakes were associated with each rupture. Using the total displacement in trenches, a slip rate of about 1 mm yr⁻¹ can be estimated for the Dinar fault. Observations suggest that the return period for large earthquakes in the Dinar area is about 1500–2000 years.     

Destructive near-fault strong ground motion from the 2016 Kumamoto prefecture,Japan, M7.3 earthquake

The sequence of the 2016 Kumamoto, Japan, earthquake, which included an initial M6.5 foreshock on April 14, followed by a larger M7.3 mainshock on April 16, and subsequently occurred high aftershock activity, caused significant damage in Kumamoto and neighboring regions. The near-field strong motion record by strong motion network (K-NET and KiK-net) and the intensity meter network demonstrated clearly the characteristics of the strong ground motion developed by the shallow (H = 12 km), inland earthquake comprising short-time duration (<15–20 s) but large (>1G) ground accelerations. The velocity response spectra of the near-fault motion at Mashiki and Nishihara showed large levels (>300–550 cm/s) in the short-period range (T = 1–2 s), several times larger than that of the near-field record of the destructive 1995 Kobe earthquake (M7.3) and that of the 2004 Mid-Niigata earthquake (M6.8). This period corresponds to the collapse vulnerability of Japanese wooden-frame houses, and is the major cause of severe damage during the Kumamoto earthquake. The response spectra also showed extremely large levels (>240–340 cm/s) in the long-period (T > 3 s) band, which is potentially disastrous for high-rise buildings, large oil storage tanks, etc. to have longer resonant period. Such long-period motion was, for the most parts, developed by the static displacement of the fault movement rather than by the seismic waves radiating from the source fault. Thus, the extreme near-fault long-period motion was hazardous only close to the fault but it attenuated very rapidly away from the fault.     

The earthquake of March 4, 1977, its recording peculiarities and source parameters

A detailed analysis of recording peculiarities at seismic stations of the Uniform System of Seismic Observations (USSO) is presented a complicated nature of the source being shown. Consideration is given to parameters of the earthquake source, including the seismic moment and the length of the rupture.Comparison of magnitudes M_LH and M_PV indicates an anomalous attenuation in surface waves, itis is 3–4 times weaker than it had been noticed in case of other intermediate-depth Carpathian earthquakes.On the basis of comparison of the logarithm of the ratio of P-wave spectra at different epicentral distances (30° –70° ), the fac tor characterizing the absorption of P wave is found to remain practically unchanged.Average value of the seismic moment is estimated to be 2.6 × 10²⁷ dyne × cm, the most reasonable length of the rupture 58 km, and its focus 100 –130 km. The source parameters of the earthquake in question are compared with those of the earthquake of November 10, 1940.     

Evaluation of Strong Motion Acceleration for Embankment Dam Design Considering Local Seismotectonics

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismichazard of Adassiya dam site on the Yarmouk river in Jordan. A line source model developedby McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue coveringthe period from 1 A.D. to 1996 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includesall earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes27.0°–35.5°N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0°E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activitiesare identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values at the dam site are as follows:[] Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) (50% probabilityof non-exceedance for a design life of 100 years – corresponding to a return period of 145 years) is 133.6 cm/sec².[] An earthquake with 90% probability of non-exceedancefor a design life of 50 years – corresponding to a return period of 475 years is 214.9 cm/sec².[] Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) (Return period of900 years) is 283.0 cm/sec².Strong motion acceleration time history of these earthquakes are givenbased on strong motion records of the November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake.Local site effect analysis for Adassiya Dam site using SHAKE program showed no amplification. Normalized site-specific acceleration response spectra for OBE and MCE design earthquakes is also given.     

济阳坳陷早第三纪震积岩的发现及其意义

济阳坳陷下第三系沙河街组三段及四段地层中发现了大量与地震活动有关的变形构造,如微断层、层内小褶皱、液化砂岩脉、振动液化卷曲变形和火焰构造等。通过牛110、利 981、车古 201和义 377等井的系统观察,发现震积岩的垂向序列自下而上依次为震裂岩和震塌岩层段、阶梯状正断层层段、振动卷曲变形层段、液化砂岩脉层段、碎块层段和均一层段,分别对应于强震期、地震衰减期和余震期。震积岩的发现不但有助于分析判断控盆边界断裂的强烈活动时期,震积岩自身也可能是一种潜在的油气储集体,因而地震事件沉积具有重要的研究意义。     

Community resilience,latent resources and resource scarcity after an earthquake: Is society really three meals away from anarchy?

Immediately after an earthquake event, how long people survive in place using their limited resources is relatively unknown, as is the behavioural response to resource scarcity. Computer-aided personal interviews were conducted with 172 householders to examine how many days people believed they were able to shelter in place without official aid in a simulated earthquake event, taking into account not only the water, food and medicine they had stockpiled, but also the availability of less obvious sources (such as water in the hot water cylinder or food from gardens). Based on recommended daily resource allowances, after a 3-day period without aid, 46 % of people had run out of at least one of these necessary resources and this increased to 90 % of people after 7 days. After a 7-day period without official aid, there is an increase in people’s perceived willingness to (1) ask for assistance from neighbours (but a reduction in people’s willingness to offer aid to others), (2) commit less socially acceptable acts (such as breaking into an empty house to take food and water) and (3) commit unsafe acts (such as drinking unpurified water). The results are discussed with regard to particular post-disaster social behaviours and how social norms shift as people adapt to survive.     

High-angle reverse faulting associated with the 1946 Nankaido earthquake

Analysis of vertical crustal deformation data in the southwestern part of Shikoku, southwest Japan, suggests that the Nankaido earthquake of 1946 (M_w = 8.1), which is a principal interplate thrust earthquake, was accompanied by subsidiary faulting on a splay fault adjacent to the coast of Shikoku. Discarding crustal movement resulting from the main thrusting of the Nankaido earthquake, local leveling data are explained by slip on a simple rectangular thrust fault located just offshore of Shikoku. Although it is difficult to constrain the fault location, a possible result is a high-angle thrust dipping landward at an angle of about 70°, with a dislocation of about 1.5 m, and source dimensions of 30 × 13 km along strike and dip. respectively. This result indicates that the fault may be one of the steeply dipping subsidiary faults branching from the main low-angle thrust, as was the case in the Alaska earthquake of 1964. Although several lines of evidence suggest that this faulting occurred as slow aseismic slip, its discrimination from the main seismic event is extremely difficult. This kind of high-angle thrusting just offshore of the coast would play an important role for the formation of the marine terraces during the late Quaternary period.     

Spatial Potential Analysis of Earthquakes in the Western Himalayas Using b-value and Thrust Association

In this study, we have analysed the spatial variation of b-values (from frequency-magnitude distribution (FMD)) in the western Himalayas as an indicator to demarcate the potential zones of earthquake occurrences. This is done under the acceptance of interpretation that decrease of b-values is correlated with a stress increase in the epicentral region of an approaching earthquake event. In addition to this, the spatial association of the earthquake epicenters with the major thrusts in the region using weights of evidence method, to identify potential zones of earthquake occurrences have also been analysed. Both analyses were carried out using a historical earthquake (M_w> 4) database of the1900-2015 period. Finally, based on the spatial variation of b-values and ‘contrasts’ derived from weights of evidence method (thrust associations), the derived map information was geospatially combined to prepare a “spatial earthquake potential” map of the western Himalayas. This map demarcates the western Himalayas into 3 zones - high, medium and low potential for future earthquake occurrences.     

基于干涉雷达的玉树地震断裂运动模式与地震迁移趋势分析

2010年4月14日青海省玉树县发生M_s7.1级地震。利用地震前后2期ALOS雷达数据进行了地表同震形变场InSAR解译研究,获取了高质量的干涉图像,并解算出定量变形场。进而根据干涉计算的变形方向、变形范围、变形量和变形梯度,参考该区的构造背景和走滑断裂的力学机理对本次地震构造活动进行了分析并得出如下结论：1）玉树地震引发了地表NWW走向、由5段构成的“S”形走滑断裂,总体为左阶排列,走滑量从10.2 cm到133.2 cm不等,走滑极值可达195 cm,其中在结古镇和隆宝镇附近的两段出现较明显的地表破裂;2）断裂两侧的雷达视线向运动方向和运动量的差异预示发震断裂以左旋走滑运动为主,SW盘为主动盘;3）宏观震中可以定位于玉树县城西北约16 km的地表陡变带附近;4）发震断裂地表行迹、变形量和地表破裂幅度预示余震将主要沿发震断裂向NW迁移;5）根据青藏高原东部地块的分区,本次地震属于羌塘地块活动的结果,与巴颜喀拉地块活动引发的汶川地震不存在直接的关联。     

Modeling of strong ground motions for 1991 Uttarkashi, 1999 Chamoli earthquakes, and a hypothetical great earthquake in Garhwal–Kumaun Himalaya

In this study, stochastic finite fault modeling is used to simulate Uttarkashi (1991) and Chamoli (1999) earthquakes using all available source, path, and site parameters available for the region. These two moderate earthquakes are recorded at number of stations of a strong motion network. The predicted peak ground accelerations at these stations are compared with the observed data and the ground motion parameters are constrained. The stress drop of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes is constrained at 77 and 65?bars, respectively, whereas the quality factor Q _C is 112 $ f^{0.97} $ and 149 $ f^{0.95} $ for these two regions. The high-frequency attenuation parameter Kappa is in the range 0.04?C0.05. The constrained ground motion parameters are then used to simulate Mw 8.5 earthquake in central seismic gap region of Himalaya. Two scenarios are considered with epicenter of future great earthquake at locations of Uttarkashi and Chamoli earthquakes using above constrained parameters. The most vulnerable towns are the towns of Dehradun and Almora where expected PGA is in excess of 600?cm/s² at V_S30 520?m/s when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Uttarkashi (1991) earthquake. The towns of Shimla and Chandigarh can expect PGA close to 200?cm/s². Whereas when the epicenter of the great earthquake is at the location of Chamoli (1999) earthquake, the towns of Dehradun and Almora can expect PGA of around 500 and 400?cm/s², respectively, at V_S30 620?m/s. The National Capital Region, Delhi can expect accelerations of around 80?cm/s² in both the cases. The PGA contour maps obtained in this study can be used to assess the seismic hazard of the region and identify vulnerable areas in and around central Himalaya from a future great earthquake.     

Implications of structural segmentation during earthquakes: the 1995 Egion earthquake, Gulf of Corinth, Greece

The Egion earthquake which occurred in the Gulf of Corinth, central Greece (Ms = 6.2) on 15 June 1995 was caused by normal slip on the north-dipping and WNW-trending Egion fault. The Egion fault ruptured at depth during the Egion mainshock and probably re-ruptured at shallow level during the largest aftershock. The surface trace of the Egion fault has a segmented geometry. Linkage between three segments, which show long-term deformation differences as well as coseismic segmentation, enabled all segments to be incorporated in an earthquake segment. The surface ruptures continued to grow after the coseismic motion; the afterslip throw of the fault 10 weeks after the main event was equal to the 3 cm value for maximum coseismic slip. This afterslip was accompanied by uplift of the footwall block and a warp-like hangingwall subsidence (folding). This pattern of deformation was associated with more complex deformation at the western end of the earthquake segment. Here, afterslip was accompanied by general subsidence of the whole area (between 25th June and 30th July), followed by uplift of the whole area without afterslip (between 30th July and 2nd September). The afterslip-rate averaged over the 73 day period after the main event varied from 0.48 mm day⁻¹ along the central part of the earthquake segment to 0.16 mm day⁻¹ at the eastern end of the earthquake segment.     

Possibility of a major earthquake in the tokai district, Japan and its pre-estimated seismotectonic effects

Crustal deformations, tsunamis and seismic intensity are pre-estimated for a large hypothetical earthquake, which it is feared may occur in the Tokai district along the Nankai trough. The long-term seismic quiescence since 1854, as well as the high rate of the present crustal movements in the district, form the principal evidence for the risk of the approaching catastrophe. The location and the mode of faulting in this earthquake are hypothesized in reference to the source mechanisms of the recent and historical earthquakes there. The fault parameters thus assumed are as follows: dip direction: N30°W; dip angle: 25°; fault dimension : 100 km × 70 km; dislocation: 4 m (reverse dip-slip: 3.8 m; right-lateral strike-slip: 1.3 m). The following are the principal conclusions: (a) the eastern part of the epicentral region including the Point Omaezaki will rise up about 100 cm, whereas the western part covering Ise and Mikawa bays will subside about 10–30 cm; (b) the coast extending from Omaezaki to the Shima peninsula will receive tsunami waves as high as 3 m in maximum, which may be locally amplified by the factor 2 or more on the rias coast along the Shima peninsula; (c) the Tokai coastal region with thick alluvium layers may suffer seismic damages as severe as those experienced in the 1854 Ansei I earthquake.