广泛应用信息技术 促进气象事业快速发展——纪念“3·23”世界气象日

本刊记者王向华报道:今年3·23”世界气象日的主题 “是:“信息时代的天气、气候和水”。这个主题表达了国际社会对天气、气候和水变化问题的重视和关注; 强调了技术在气象、水文和相关领域的发展中起到的关键作用;反映了信息时代对气象工作的更高要求。3月22日,新     

刻不容缓地加快气象现代化建设步伐

刻不容缓地加快气象现代化建设步伐广西自治区副主席徐炳松在纪念“３·２３”世界气象日的电视讲话同志们：今天是世界气象日，为此我代表区党委、区人民政府向我区气象工作者致以节日的祝贺。今年世界气象日主题是“观测天气和气候”。天气和气候的观测是气象工作的基础...     

省局召开纪念世界气象日暨“121”气象信息服务座谈会

3月23日,省气象局和省气象学会,围绕今年世界气象日“天气。气候与健康”的主题,召开了纪念世界气象日暨“121”气象信息服务座谈会。省局局长、省气象学会副理事长宋达人作了“天气、气候与健康”的主题发言。他指出,天气、气候与健康的关系密切。自50年代以来,气象工作者与医疗卫生工作者合作,广泛开展了医疗气象学的研究,已取得了一大批天气、气候与疾病关系的研究成果,开展了内容丰富、种类繁多的医疗气象预报服务。我省气象部门近期内将通过多种方式,尤其是“121”电话答询气象服务方式,开展医疗气象预报服务。“121”用户代…     

天气、气候和水的志愿者

3月 2 3日是世界气象日 ,世界气象组织每年都选定一个公众热点的主题来庆祝这一节日。 2 0 0 1年世界气象日的主题是“天气、气候和水的志愿者” ,这些志愿者包括个人、政府、学术机构及民间组织。选择这一主题是为纪念所有气象、水文志愿者为气象学、水文学和相关地球物理科学的发展做出的贡献 ,同时也与联合国将 2 0 0 1年定为“国际志愿者年”相一致。在世界各国活跃着许多热心天气、气候和水文工作的志愿者 ,他们不屈不挠、信守诺言地从事着地面、大气和海洋的观测。从气象学的早期开始 ,世界各地的气象和水文工作者的工作就从志愿者的…     

加强协作 不断创新 做好广播电视的气象信息服务工作

今天是世界气象日，2004年世界气象日的主题是：信息时代的天气、气候和水。这个主题体现了当今飞速发展的时代和社会与气象的紧密联系，体现了气象信息与传播的紧密联系。我们广播电视是最重要的社会传播媒介，我们认为省气象局牵头举办的这个专题报告会很适时，很有必要。     

移动通信与气象信息的传播

非常高兴能够代表江西移动公司参加这个特别的会议。2004年世界气象日的主题是“信息时代的天气、气候和水”，让我感觉到目前世界各地对天气、气候和水与信息传播的关系的高度重视。应该说气象与人类各种活动的联系，随着科技的发展越来越密切，特别是进入了信息时代后，气象部门与各通信、媒体之间的合作又有一个很大的发展空间。通过近几年我们江西移动公司和江西气象部门的合作就可以看到这一点。     

内蒙古自治区气象局、内蒙古气象学会举行世界气象日宣传活动

2009年3月23日．内蒙古自治区气象局与内蒙古气象学会共同在内蒙古自治区气象局正门前举行以“天气、气候和我们呼吸的空气”为主题的世界气象日宣传活动。     

电信与气象信息的传播

2004年世界气象日主题是：信息时代的天气、气候和水，体现了天气、气候和水与信息传播的重要关系，应该说我们江西电信与气象部门的协作一直都是非常密切的。追溯历史也是源远流长。从60～70年代的气象电报的合作，80年代的气象部门内部的气象信息传输和气象专线的建立。90年代以来的INTERNET气象业务网与“121”气象预报业务的开通。这一系列业务的圆满顺利合作不仅为广大市民提供了便捷的气象服务，产生了良好的社会效益和民众口碑。同时还为江西电信和气象部门带来了一个优势联合、共获双赢的合作平台和友谊纽带!     

天气与气候：青年人的参与

每年在3月23日庆祝世界气象日是为了纪念创建世界气象组织的公约在1950年的此日开始生效。此日的庆祝还强调了国家气象和水文部门对社会安全和福祉作出的巨大贡献。今年世界气象日的主题是“天气和气候：青年人的参与”。我们探究和预报地球天气和气候的能力正在突飞猛进,当今青年将从中获得益处。     

尽心竭力观云测天

尽心竭力观云测天３月２３日是世界气象日。自１９５０年３月２３日世界气象组织公约生效之日起，世界各国人民都在这一天举办纪念活动，以促进社会各界关心支持气象科技的发展，更好地为人类社会和经济发展服务。今年世界气象日的主题是：“观测天气和气候”。气候变迁、...     

未来气候变化科学研究的主要方向和挑战

2014年9月,IPCC联合世界气候研究计划（WCRP）,在瑞士伯尔尼大学召开了一次特别的研讨会,总结过去几年气候变化科学研究中所取得的经验教训。此次会议针对IPCC最新评估报告中的关键不确定性,梳理并总结了未来气候变化研究的主要科学方向和面临的主要挑战,讨论了如何与WCRP计划结合并解决这些问题,以期在未来更好地应对这些挑战。在此次会议上,与会专家提出,未来气候变化科学研究的重大挑战应包括如下8个主题。云、环流与气候敏感度;理解和预测极端天气气候事件;冰冻圈变化;区域气候信息;区域海平面上升及其对沿海地区的影响;水资源可利用量;生物地球化学、气溶胶和大气化学;理解年代际变化：归因与预测。这些主题涵盖了WCRP计划的六大挑战和其他被认为具有挑战性的主题。本文将在此次会议报告的基础上,对相关内容进行介绍,以供当前的气候变化工作参考。     

Using climate information for supporting climate change adaptation in water resource management in South Africa

Water resources, and in particular run-off, are significantly affected by climate variability. At present, there are few examples of how the water management sector integrates information about changing intra-annual climate conditions in a systematic manner in developing countries. This paper, using the case study of Cape Town in the Western Cape, South Africa, identifies processes and products to facilitate increased uptake of seasonal climate forecasts among water resource managers. Results suggest that existing seasonal forecasts do not focus enough on specific users’ needs. In order to increase uptake, forecasts need to include information on the likely impact of precipitation variability on runoff and water availability. More opportunities are also needed for those with climate knowledge to interact with water resource managers, particularly in the developing country context where municipal managers’ capacity is strained. Although there are challenges that need to be overcome in using probabilistic climate information, seasonal forecast information tailored to the needs of water resource planners has the potential to support annual planning and is therefore a means of adapting to climate change.     

Assessing Climate Change Implications for Water Resources Planning

Numerous recent studies have shown that existing water supply systems are sensitive to climate change. One apparent implication is that water resources planning methods should be modified accordingly. Few of these studies, however, have attempted to account for either the chain of uncertainty in projecting water resources system vulnerability to climate change, or the adaptability of system operation resulting from existing planning strategies. Major uncertainties in water resources climate change assessments lie in a) climate modeling skill; b) errors in regional downscaling of climate model predictions; and c) uncertainties in future water demands. A simulation study was designed to provide insight into some aspects of these uncertainties. Specifically, the question that is addressed is whether a different decision would be made in a reservoir reallocation decision if knowledge about future climate were incorporated (i.e., would planning based on climate change information be justified?). The case study is possible reallocation of flood storage to conservation (municipal water supply) on the Green River, WA. We conclude that, for the case study, reservoir reallocation decisions and system performance would not differ significantly if climate change information were incorporated in the planning process.     

Climate, water management, and policy in the San Pedro Basin: results of a survey of Mexican stakeholders near the U.S.–Mexico border

This paper reviews regional climate knowledge and vulnerability in the northern Mexico San Pedro River Basin, with a focus on water quality, quantity, and management issues on the Mexican side of the border. A discussion based on the available literature is supplemented by a survey assessing concerns about water and the quality and usability of climate and hydrologic information available to water managers and communities. The surveys indicate that the central concern for urban residents is the lack of reliable potable water due to frequent service breakdowns–with climate change and variability, specifically drought and high temperatures, as contributing factors. Water managers desire appropriate meteorological and hydrologic information to improve planning strategies, but access to this information remains limited. Considerable disagreement exists about who should pay for previously free or low-cost water and wastewater treatment. Urban users have little incentive to conserve because of the present flat, low rate and frustration with service. In rural areas, while a majority of ranchers recognize that variable climate and water loss could increasingly jeopardize their lifestyle, they seldom use meteorological information in planning or modify their water consumption. Climate vulnerability also includes potential for serious environmental health issues due to the presence of heavy metals and organic contaminants in the San Pedro.     

The Generational Divide in Support for Environmental Policies: European Evidence

This article examines age variations in support for environmental protection policies that affect climate change using a sample of over 14,000 respondents to a 1999 Eurobarometer survey. There is a steady decline with age in whether respondents are willing to incur higher gasoline prices to protect the environment. This relationship remains after controlling for socioeconomic characteristics. There are age-related differences in information about environmental risks, information sources about the environment, perceived health risks from climate change, and degree of worry about climate change. However, taking these factors into account does not eliminate the age variation in willingness to pay more for gasoline to protect the environment.     

Climate and Water: From Climate Models to Water Resources Management and Vice Versa

This article reviews the recent developments in the functional chain from climate models to climate scenarios, through hydrology all the way to water resources management, design and policy making. Although climate models, such as Global Circulation Models (GCMs) continue to evolve, their outputs remain crude and often even inappropriate to watershed-scale hydrological analyses. The bridging techniques are evolving, though. Many families of regionalization technologies are under progress in parallel. Perhaps the most important advances are in the field of regional weather patterns, such as ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and many more. The gap from hydrology to water resources development is by far not that wide. The traditional and contemporary practices are well in place. In climate change studies, the bottleneck is not in this link itself but in the climatic input. The tendency seems to be towards integrated water resources assessments, where climate is only one among many changes that are expected to occur, such as demography, land cover and land use, economy, technologies, and so forth. In such a pragmatic setting a risk–analytic interpretation of those scenarios is often called for. The above-outlined continuum from climate to water is a topic where the physically based modelers, the empiricists and the pragmatists should not get restricted to their own way of thinking. The issues should develop hand in hand. Perhaps the greatest challenge is to incorporate and respect the pragmatic policy-related component to the two other branches. For this purpose, it is helpful to reverse the direction of thinking from time to time to start—instead of climate models—from practical needs and think how the climate scenarios and models help really in the difficult task of designing better water structures, outline better policies and formulate better operational rules in the water field.     

Quantification of uncertainty sources in a probabilistic climate change assessment of future water shortages

As the incorporation of probabilistic climate change information into UK water resource management gathers apace, understanding the relative scales of the uncertainty sources in projections of future water shortage metrics is necessary for the resultant information to be understood and used effectively. Utilising modified UKCP09 weather generator data and a multi-model approach, this paper represents a first attempt at extending an uncertainty assessment of future stream flows under forced climates to consider metrics of water shortage based on the triggering of reservoir control curves. It is found that the perturbed physics ensemble uncertainty, which describes climate model parameter error uncertainty, is the cause of a far greater proportion of both the overall flow and water shortage per year probability uncertainty than that caused by SRES emissions scenario choice in the 2080s. The methodology for producing metrics of future water shortage risk from UKCP09 weather generator information described here acts as the basis of a robustness analysis of the North Staffordshire WRZ to climate change, which provides an alternative approach for making decisions despite large uncertainties, which will follow.     

What information do policy makers need to develop climate adaptation plans for smallholder farmers? The case of Central America and Mexico

Scientific and technical information can increase the ability of policy makers to make strategic decisions. However, climate change policy is often formulated without significant input from science. We examine whether the availability and accessibility of information related to climate change is a major barrier for policy action on climate change adaptation for smallholder farmers. We also investigate whether scientific information related to climate change is available and used in policy making in Central America and Mexico. Our online survey of 105 decision makers indicated that a lack of scientific and technical information hinders policy makers from developing policies to help smallholder farmers adapt to climate change. Specific needs include information on the impacts of climate change on water availability for agriculture and the areas that are or will be prone to flooding, droughts or landslides. Information about the location of the farmers who are most vulnerable to climate change, the projected temperature and precipitation in agricultural areas and the expected impacts of climate change on crop yields or animal productivity, is also needed. Despite high interest in having scientific information guide policy making, many respondents indicated that policy makers rarely use this information in adaptation planning. In addition to ensuring that relevant information is available to inform policy making, technical and scientific information must be published in venues that are readily accessible for policy makers, easy to understand, and written in a format that is policy-relevant. It is also critical that scientific articles provide specific recommendations for achieving desired policy outcomes.     

亚洲夏季风是低层污染物进入平流层的重要途径

夏季亚洲季风区是对流层低层水汽和污染物进入全球平流层的一个重要通道, 自然或人为污染物通过该通道进入平流层后对臭氧层的破坏以及全球气候环境的影响, 成为目前国际科学界关注的热点问题。早先观点认为: 夏季青藏高原是对流层低空物质向平流层输送的一个重要渠道。然而, 越来越多的观测表明: 包括青藏高原在内的整个亚洲夏季风通过强对流的快速输送以及大尺度输送过程可以把低层大气物质输送到全球平流层。在地面物质进入平流层的过程中有两个关键过程, 一是垂直快速输送的对流活动, 这对于短寿命化学成分非常重要, 二是缓慢的大尺度反气旋输送和限制作用。但是, 目前对于亚洲季风区不同源区的贡献还有很大的争议。     

How stable are Australian farmers’ climate change risk perceptions? New evidence of the feedback loop between risk perceptions and behaviour

The exact relationship between people’s climate change attitudes and behaviour is a topic that engages policy-makers and researchers worldwide. Do climate change attitudes influence behaviour or is it possible that behaviour can change attitudes? This study uses a unique repeated survey dataset of 275 farmers (irrigators) in the southern Murray-Darling Basin from 2010–11 to 2015–16, to explore the dynamic relationship between climate change risk perceptions and farm adaptation behaviour. Farmers who had an increased risk exposure (expressed through higher debt, larger irrigated areas, greater share of permanent crops, and located in areas with higher temperatures and less rainfall) were more likely to agree climate change posed a risk. Whilst farmers became more accepting towards climate change over the time-period, a significant percentage of these attitudes were unstable. One reason suggested for this instability is the presence of a feedback loop between risk perceptions and behaviour. Namely, new evidence was found that farmers who agreed climate change was a risk in 2010–11, were more likely to undertake farm production decisions to reduce that risk (e.g. changing crop mix, reducing irrigated area and consequently selling water entitlements) – which had the impact of negatively feeding back and reducing their stated climate change risk perceptions in 2015–16. Conversely, farmers who were originally deniers were more likely to undertake somewhat riskier farm production decisions (e.g. increasing water utilisation rates and irrigation areas) – which consequently had the impact of positively increasing their climate change risk perceptions in 2015–16.