Major flood disasters in Europe: 1950–2005

There is a need for comprehensive, standardised and georeferenced information on floods for political and economic decision-making. Relevant, accurate and up-to-date data is an important aspect for resource distribution, mitigation programmes, disaster monitoring and assessment. Despite this, there is a lack of spatial and thematic accurate global data for floods. In Europe, historic data on flood losses and casualties are neither comprehensive nor standardised, thus making long-term analyses at continental level difficult. In this article, we present a map and catalogue of the major flood events of the last 56 years in the European Union (EU), Bulgaria and Romania. This study is an effort to alleviate the lack of homogeneous and georeferenced information on flood disasters for large periods in Europe. The objectives of this paper are to identify and classify the major flood disasters of the last 56 years in the EU; to map the major flood disasters at pan-European scale with the support of a potential flood hazard map and ancillary GIS datasets; and to give a picture of the current situation for major floods in the EU on the basis of past events and current trends. The Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) of the Centre of Research on Epidemiology of Disasters in Brussels (CRED) and United States Office for Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA) and NATHAN of Munich Re are two of the main public global databases for natural disasters. Information from EM-DAT and NATHAN on flood disasters producing more than 70 casualties and/or more than 0.005% of EU GDP in damage has been assessed for the production of the map and catalogue of major flood disasters in Europe.

Why are flood and landslide victims less willing to take mitigation measures than the public?

Almost annually, natural hazards such as floods and landslides cause a great deal of financial loss and human suffering in Taiwan. In order to gain a better understanding of disaster preparedness, this paper examines several factors in relation to hazard mitigation behavior: social economic status (education, income), psychological vulnerability (sense of powerless and helpless), risk perception (perceived impact and control) and social trust. The statistical analysis reported here is based on the “2004 National Risk Perception Survey of Floods and Landslides in Taiwan”. The main findings include: (1) in comparison with general public, victims are less willing to adopt risk mitigation measures than the public, even though they perceive larger impacts, worry more about the hazard, and pay more attention to hazard information; (2) trust, risk perception and social economic status are positive predictors for mitigation intentions, whereas psychological vulnerability is a negative predictor; and (3) psychological variables are stronger predictors for mitigation intentions than that of socio-economic variables. In light of these findings, the policy implications and intervention strategy are also discussed.

A multicriteria approach for flood risk mapping exemplified at the Mulde river,Germany

In this paper we develop a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach. This approach includes flood risks which are not measured in monetary terms; it shows the spatial distribution of multiple risks, and it is able to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to show their influence on the overall flood risk assessment. Additionally, the approach can be used to show the spatial allocation of the flood effects if risk reduction measures are implemented. The approach is applied to a pilot study for the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany, heavily affected by the hazardous flood in 2002. Therefore, a GIS database of economic, social and environmental risk criteria was created. Two different multicriteria decision rules, a disjunctive and an additive weighting approach, are utilised for an overall flood risk assessment in the area. For implementation, a software tool (FloodCalc) was developed supporting both, the risk calculation of the single criteria as well as the multicriteria analysis.

Mapping flood pressure points: assessing vulnerability of the UK Fire Service to flooding

A vulnerability index for the Fire Service in the UK has been designed to identify vulnerable locations during episodes of severe floods. Taking recent case studies with the UK Fire Service, the patterns of vulnerability, in terms of demand on time and resources, can be explained by investigating the environmental causes and their interaction with the adaptive capacity of the response agencies.

Perception of flood risk in Danube Delta,Romania

For exposed and vulnerable communities, the perception of natural risk is an essential link in the analysis of man–environment coping relationship and also an important parameter in the quantification of complex vulnerability as a central predictive variable in the risk equation. The topic of flood risk in related perception is of considerable interest, as some recently published papers have proven (Messner and Meyer 2005, 2006; Raaijmakers et al. 2008). The aim of the current study is to reveal the conscious and unconscious attitudes towards the flood risk for the inhabitants of the Danube Delta/Romania. These attitudes, defined by different degrees of psychological vulnerability, represent the background for a series of psycho-behavioural patterns that generate certain adjustment mechanisms and strategies. Application of a specially designed questionnaire and the statistical analysis of the results revealed two psychological factors as essential in establishing the psychosocial vulnerability degree of the interviewed subjects: (i) an internal control factor and (ii) an external control factor. The persons characterized by inner control have a significantly reduced general anxiety level in comparison to individuals with the control factor placed externally. As confidence diminishes, it increases the tendency of the individual to rely on the external factors for support and security. The lack of resources (indicating lower resilience) and mistrust in the support given emphasizes non-adaptive behaviours.

Mediterranean flash flood transfer through karstic area

Karstic aquifers influence flash floods propagation in Mediterranean countries. Near Montpellier, Southern France, discharge data are recorded on the Coulazou River upstream and downstream of the Aumelas Causse. Two gauging stations are used to describe the hydrodynamics of this binary karstic system. The first station characterizes the non-karstic catchment area. The second one is representative of the karstic part of the watershed. Records since April 2004 are used to understand how the river interacts with a karstic aquifer. Hydrograph analysis of three flash flood events is described. Corresponding discharge time series recorded at the two gauging stations are used to describe the modification of the hydrographs by auto- and crosscorrelations analyses. Finally, linear system analyses are used to provide the transfer functions of this binary karstic system according to the three flood events characteristics (initial conditions, volume, spatial distribution of rainfall, etc.). Theses functions summarize the hydrodynamic behaviour of the system: their shapes are indicative of the dynamics of the storage, the release and the contribution to surface waters.

Consideration of natural hazards in the design and risk management of industrial facilities

Recent chemical accidents precipitated by natural disasters have prompted governments in the United States, Japan, and Europe, among other countries, to re-evaluate current practices in the design and risk management of industrial facilities. This paper presents an overview of natural hazard design considerations and external events risk management requirements in the industrial sector, with particular emphasis on industrial practices in the United States, Japan, and Europe. The analysis shows that although regulations exist to ensure industrial plant structures are built to resist natural hazards (up to the design level), there are few laws to address the performance of non-structural elements and safety and emergency response measures during a natural disaster. Laws usually also refer to natural hazards only indirectly, and provisions to prevent or respond to simultaneous disasters from single or multiple sources concurrent with the natural disaster are usually not present.

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

Spatial dependencies in wind-related housing damage

This article examines the spatial dependence among housing losses due to tornadoes using data from the May 1999 Oklahoma City tornado. In order to examine the existence of spatial dependence and its impacts on the damage analysis, we compare an estimation based on a traditional ordinary least square model with the general spatial model. The results show that housing damage in this disaster area is highly correlated. Monetary losses not only depend on the tornado that struck residences, but are related to the damage magnitudes of neighboring houses. Average losses as well as the loss ratio increase with the Fujita Scale damage rating. We conclude that the general spatial model provides unbiased estimates compared to the ordinary least square model. In order to construct appropriate home insurance policies for tornado disasters or to improve the damage resistance capabilities of houses, it is necessary for insurance underwriters and builders to consider spatial correlation of tornado damage.

Natech risk and management: an assessment of the state of the art

The present state-of-the-art for natech risk and management is discussed. Examples of recent natechs include catastrophic oil spills associated with Hurricane Katrina and hazardous chemical releases in Europe during the heavy floods of 2002. Natechs create difficult challenges for emergency responders due to the geographical extent of the natural disaster, the likelihood of simultaneous releases, emergency personnel being preoccupied with response to the natural disaster, mitigation measures failing due to the effects of the natural disaster, and others. Recovery from natechs may be much more difficult than for “normal” chemical accidents, as the economic and social conditions of the industrial facility and the surrounding community may have been drastically altered by the natural disaster. Potential safeguards against natechs include adoption of stricter design criteria, chemical process safeguards, community land use planning, disaster mitigation and response planning, and sustainable industrial processes, but these safeguards are only sporadically applied. Ultimately, the public must engage in a comprehensive discussion of acceptable risks for natechs.

Melt inclusion formation mechanisms and compositional effects in high-An feldspar and high-Fo olivine in anhydrous mafic silicate liquids

Important aspects of melt inclusion formation and potential compositions effects have been addressed through a series of experiments using anorthite/fosterite saturated anhydrous mafic liquids. Experimental charges were cooled from 1,300 to 1,230 and 1,210°C at rates of 1–10°/min followed by 0–24 h isothermal periods. Hopper and skeletal crystal morphologies with variable degrees of completeness developed during the cooling period. Planar overgrowth of these textures during isothermal periods led to the formation of inclusions, the majority of which formed after 6 h of isothermal run time. We suggest that the change in morphologies is related to a decrease in growth rates and changes in dominant growth mechanisms. In general, inclusion compositions were uniform and similar to the host glass, indicating that with the isothermal times required for most inclusions to form, a boundary layer was not entrapped that could be detected within the limits of our analyses.

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Methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas

Concern for natural hazard-triggered technological disasters (Natech disasters) in densely populated and industrialized areas is growing. Residents living in urban areas subject to high natural hazard risk are often unaware of the potential for secondary disasters such as hazardous materials releases from neighboring industrial facilities, chemical storage warehouses or other establishments housing hazardous materials. Lessons from previous disasters, such as the Natech disaster during the Kocaeli earthquake in Turkey in 1999 call for the need to manage low frequency/high consequence events, particularly in today’s densely populated areas. However, there is little guidance available on how local governments and communities can assess Natech risk. To add to the problem, local governments often do not have the human or economic resources or expertise to carry out detailed risk assessments. In this article, we propose a methodology for preliminary assessment of Natech risk in urban areas. The proposed methodology is intended for use by local government officials in consultation with the public. The methodology considers possible interactions between the various systems in the urban environment: the physical infrastructure (e.g., industrial plants, lifeline systems, critical facilities), the community (e.g., population exposed), the natural environment (e.g., delicate ecosystems, river basins), and the risk and emergency management systems (e.g., structural and nonstructural measures). Factors related to vulnerability and hazard are analyzed and qualitative measures are recommended. Data from hazardous materials releases during the Kocaeli, Turkey earthquake of August 17, 1999 are used as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the methodology. Limitations of the proposed methodology are discussed as well as future research needs.

Spatial and temporal knowledge representation

Knowledge Representation (KR) originated as a discipline within Artificial Intelligence, and is concerned with the representation of knowledge in symbolic form so that it can be stored and manipulated on a computer. This article surveys that part of KR that is concerned with the representation of space and time, with particular reference to the use of such representations in geographical information science.

The regionalization of urban natural disasters in China

An integrated urbanization level (CL) index and an integrated natural disaster intensity (QC) index were developed on the basis of Disaster System Theory and China Natural Disaster Database for integrated urban disaster risk assessment. Integrated quantitative assessments of the urban socio-economic system and the intensity of hazards in China were carried out by the Model-Tupu (map series) and inter-feedback process using digital map technology. On the basis of this assessment, China can be regionalized into three regions, namely, coastal urban disaster region, eastern urban disaster region and western urban disaster region, 15 sub-regions and 22 units. These results can provide a scientific basis for determining a city’s disaster risk management and natural disaster relief regionalization in China.

Space Physics Interactive Data Resource—SPIDR

SPIDR (Space Physics Interactive Data Resource) is a standard data source for solar-terrestrial physics, functioning within the framework of the ICSU World Data Centers. It is a distributed database and application server network, built to select, visualize and model historical space weather data distributed across the Internet. SPIDR can work as a fully-functional web-application (portal) or as a grid of web-services, providing functions for other applications to access its data holdings.

<Emphasis Type="Italic">An </Emphasis><Emphasis Type="Italic">Inconvenient Truth</Emphasis>: a focus on its portrayal of the hydrologic cycle

An Inconvenient Truth (AIT) has earned Al Gore an Oscar and a share of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and has been widely acclaimed by the mass media. However, significant errors exist in the film, owing to alarmism and exaggeration. As this forum does not provide for a detailed examination of these errors, this paper will focus only on the portrayal of the hydrologic cycle by AIT—precipitation and floods, soil moisture and droughts, and storminess. AIT argues that precipitation and intense rainfalls, floods, droughts, and the total number, intensity, and duration of tropical cyclones have all increased due exclusively to anthropogenically-driven climate change; indeed, AIT paints a picture of near scientific certainty with an overwhelming bias toward catastrophe scenarios. A closer look at the science, however, reveals that the data do not support these claims and that the scientific community is divided as to what the impact of anthropogenic climate change on the hydrologic cycle will be. Thus, the film gives a false impression of both the current state of climate change and that ‘the science is settled’.

Assessment of suffosion-related hazards in karst areas using GIS technology

This paper describes an application of the geographic information system (GIS) technology to a ground stability assessment in the karst area of Dzerzhinsk, Russia. In the stability analysis, the groundwater level changes in the karst aquifer could cause suffosion sinkholes when the gravitational force was greater than the soil strength. The GIS technology was used to combine various data and to delineate the zones of potential gravitational collapse and suffosion collapse in the area.

Peace Parks and jaguar trails: transboundary conservation in a globalizing world

An increasingly utilized strategy for expanding conservation in the developing world has been the promotion of protected areas that supersede national borders. Alternatively known as transfrontier biosphere reserves, transfrontier or transboundary conservation areas, or Peace Parks, these protected areas are aggressively advanced by conservation agencies for their purported ecological and economic benefits. This article provides a comparative assessment of two case studies to understand the various impacts of transboundary conservation. The Great Limpopo Transfrontier Park, which unites protected areas in South Africa, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, is contrasted with efforts to protect jaguars along the United States–Mexico border. We argue that while these cases are promising for the purposes of biodiversity protection, they demonstrate that transboundary conservation can minimize political context, contributes to the hegemony of international conservation agendas, and remains closely linked to economic neoliberalism and decentralization in the developing world.

The role of economic analysis in groundwater management in semi-arid regions: the case of Nigeria

The aim of this paper is to use an economic framework to derive decision making rules for river basin management with a focus on groundwater resources. Using an example from northern Nigeria, the paper provides an example of how decision making for sustainable water resources management may be facilitated by comparing net benefits and costs across a river basin. It is argued that economic tools can be used to assess the value of water resources in different uses, identify and analyze management scenarios, and provide decision rules for the sustainable use and management of surface and ground water resources in the region.

Predicting environmental conditions to minimise salt damage at the Tower of London: a comparison of two approaches

The paper compares the results of two studies of salt damage at the Wakefield Tower, Tower of London. The first, in 1993, was based on semi-quantitative salt analysis and hygroscopicity measurements. The second was based on quantitative analysis and a thermodynamic model, ECOS. Both studies aimed to predict environmental conditions that would minimise salt damage to the interior stonework. Their predictions are markedly different, and this paper examines the reasons for the differences. It is shown that hygroscopicity alone is not a reliable indicator of crystallisation from mixed salt solutions.