An ecosystem modeling approach to predicting cod recruitment

The Norwegian Ecological Model (NORWECOM) biophysical model system implemented with the ROMS ocean circulation model has been run to simulate conditions over the last 25 years for the North Atlantic. Modeled time series of water volume fluxes, primary production, and drift of cod larvae through their modeled ambient temperature fields have been analyzed in conjunction with VPA estimated time series of 3-year-old cod recruits in the Barents Sea. Individual time series account for less than 50% of the recruitment variability; however, a combination of simulated flow of Atlantic water into the Barents Sea and local primary production accounts for 70% of the variability with a 3-year lead. The associated regression predicts increased recruitment between 2007 and 2008 from about 450–700 million individuals with a standard error of nearly 150 million.     

Stock-environment recruitment analysis for Namibian Cape hake Merluccius capensis

The factors modulating recruitment success of Cape hake Merluccius capensis in Namibian waters are still unresolved. In this study, we used generalised additive models, regression tree analysis and the conventional Ricker model to examine the effect of environmental indices and spawning stock biomass (SSB) on hake recruitment success for the period 1984–2012. Results indicated that upwelling strength explained 51% of the recruitment variability, whereas SSB had no significant influence. The effect of SSB on recruitment only became significant when combined with upwelling strength, explaining 89% of the recruitment variability. SSB influenced recruitment during periods of strong upwelling. Optimal conditions for hake recruitment were associated with moderate upwelling strength. Low and high upwelling intensities reduced recruitment success. Our results are consistent with those of other studies suggesting a significant influence of environmental conditions on recruitment at a low spawning stock level. Our study highlights the importance of assessing the combined non-linear effects of both biotic and abiotic factors on hake recruitment.     

Environmental effects on the recruitment variability of nursery species

The recruitment variability of the marine fish species Dicentrarchus labrax, Platichthys flesus and Solea solea was evaluated in the Mondego estuary (Portugal) from 2003 to 2007. The relationships between sea surface temperature, NAO index, coastal wind speed and direction, precipitation and river runoff prior to the estuarine colonization and the abundance of 0-group fish were evaluated using gamma-based Generalized Linear Models. Dicentrarchus labrax and P. flesus 0-group decreased in abundance towards the end of the study period, while S. solea, despite low abundance in 2004, increased in abundance in 2007. For D. labrax, river runoff, precipitation and east–west wind were significant; for P. flesus, precipitation, river runoff and both north–south and east–west wind components were significant parameters, while for S. solea only river runoff was important. Results were compared with recent projections for climate change scenarios, to evaluate their effects on future recruitment levels.     

Transcriptional response of Microcystis aeruginosa to the recruitment promoting-benthic bacteria

Blooms of Microcystis aeruginosa occur frequently in many freshwater ecosystems around the world, but the mechanism of recovery has not been fully understood. I...     

Oil spill fishery impact assessment modeling: The fisheries recruitment problem

A model to assess the impact of oil spill on fisheries, consisting of an oil spill fates model, a continental shelf hydrodynamics model, an ichthyoplankton transport and fates model, and a fish population model, has been applied to the Georges Bank-Gulf of Maine region to estimate the impact of oil spills on several important commercial fisheries. The model addresses direct impacts of oil on a fishery through hydrocarbon-induced egg and larval mortality. This early life stage mortality is estimated by dynamically mapping the spatial intersection of the surface and subsurface oil concentrations resulting from the spill with the developing eggs and larvae. Ichthyoplankton entering an area with hydrocarbon concentrations in excess of a specified threshold are assumed lost. Model output is given in terms of differential catch, comparing the non-impacted and the hydrocarbon impacted fisheries. Difficulties in establishing stock-recruit relationships, and the inability to predict first year survival even one year ahead make the quantification of absolute catch losses impossible. Output of the model system discussed here is therefore limited to relative rather than absolute catch losses.The paper is organized to demonstrate first the importance of the recruitment question to impact estimation, second that a modeling methodology is necessary to evaluate impacts given the magnitude of unexplained observed recruitment variability, and third a stochastic solution to the problem which places impact estimates in the context of a probability distribution. Lastly, the model system is applied to the problem of attaining better early life history mortality estimates, to ultimately improve impact estimation capabilities.     

A limit reference point to prevent recruitment overfishing of Pacific bluefin tuna

Pacific bluefin tuna (PBF) (Thunnus orientalis) is commercially important in the North Pacific Ocean. Although its stock has been relatively low for decades, international discussions on a long-term management framework, including the definition of a limit reference point (LRP), have only recently started. This paper argues that an LRP for PBF could be developed by determining a biomass level that would prevent recruitment overfishing. First, it reviews the development of LRPs for various tuna species and demonstrates that most of these limits are not necessarily based on biological information on the respective species. Then, the current management of PBF is also reviewed as background information for considering an LRP for PBF. Finally, a variety of simple analyses of the stock–recruitment relationship of PBF are conducted to find a biomass level that would prevent recruitment overfishing—i.e. an LRP below which stocks should not fall. It is concluded that, for the first time to our knowledge, defining such an LRP for a tuna species is possible (about 30 thousand tonnes or 5% of estimated unfished spawning stock biomass in our calculation). Not only is the LRP based on actual experience, but also the logic behind it would be easier for stakeholders to understand than the theoretical LRPs used elsewhere. This LRP should be useful in future in more comprehensive management framework, such as one through management strategy evaluations, in which stakeholder involvement in decision-making is crucial.     

Occurrence and recruitment of fish larvae in a northern New Zealand estuary

The occurrence of fish larvae and the effect of diel and tidal variation on catches was studied at about biweekly intervals for a year in Whangateau Harbour, a small well mixed northern New Zealand estuary. Larvae from 31 taxa were identified. The annual pattern of larval occurrence was typical for fish in temperate waters, with a major peak of abundance in early summer. For six taxa, larval densities were significantly greater in night-time than in daytime catches, and analysis of length-frequency distributions suggested that for two species this was due to daytime net avoidance.No significant differences were found between the densities of larvae caught on flood and ebb tides, but changes in length-frequency distributions were significant for two species. Recently hatched larvae of an unidentified goby were found leaving the harbour, where they were probably spawned, while older larvae of this species appeared to be recruiting back in. Larvae of the flounder Rhobosolea plebeia were also apparently recruiting into the harbour. In the absence of a two-layered circulation pattern larvae relied upon tidal transport for recruitment, and probaby ensured their retention by rapidly settling to the bottom.