中国西北地区额济纳绿洲植被盖度与黑河流量的滞后效应研究

干旱区植被生长与地下水的关系是生态水文地质学研究的热点之一。西北干旱地区,由于降水稀少,绿洲是当地人类生存和发展的主要依托。近年来,随着黑河流域中游地区用水量的逐年加大,下游来水量减少,使得下游额济纳绿洲的面积不断减小,湖泊干涸,沙漠化严重,生态环境恶化。由于绿洲植被的生长与水有极为密切的关系,因此,研究河流流量与绿洲植被生长之间的定量关系,对改善黑河流域生态环境、协调用水矛盾和合理配置水资源具有重要意义。将遥感数据与黑河径流量数据相结合,在区域尺度上定量研究额济纳绿洲植被生长与河流径流量的关系。结果表明,绿洲植被对黑河径流以及地下水有很强的依赖关系,而且黑河径流对额济纳绿洲的影响存在一年的滞后期,而地下水则通过这种滞后作用将两者联系起来。     

The dynamics of conservative mixing in estuaries

Mixing plots, in which a dissolved constituent is plotted against salinity or chlorinity, are commonly used to interpret conservative and non-conservative processes in estuarine systems. A bend in the resulting curve is generally interpreted as indicative of the reactive or non-conservative nature of the constituent or the presence of multiple sources or sinks within the estuary. This paper demonstrates analytically that bends in mixing curves may also result from temporal variations in end-member (river or ocean) constituent concentrations even for conservative constituents. A one-dimensional dispersion equation is used to calculate the distribution of salinity and a conservative constituent in a model estuary. Both straight and bent mixing curves are shown resulting simply from changing the variability of the river constituent concentration. For no variability the curve is straight. For variability with a period much less than the flushing time, the average curve for a general data set straight, whereas the curve for a synoptic data set is bent. For variability with a period greater than the flushing time a bent curve results. Since bent mixing curves can occur for conservative properties, the use of these curves for interpretation of estuarine processes must be undertaken with an understanding of the temporal variability of the river and ocean constituents and their relationship to the estuary mixing properties and flushing time.     

基于GIS对新安江模型的改进初探

新安江模型能较好解决降雨时空分布问题,但忽略了其他分布不均的影响。流域汇流特征在很大程度上取决于流域形状特征和地形分布。提出一种方法,利用数字高程模型(DEM)划分子流域,提取各单元流域的平均坡度和最大汇流路径长度,以最大汇流路径长度推求形状系数,并将形状系数和平均坡度引入模型结构中,建立其与汇流参数之间的相关关系,使新安江模型能同时考虑降雨、流域形状以及地形分布。将改进后的模型应用于沿渡河流域进行验证,效果良好。     

“泾渭分明”的现代特点分析

清浊变化是指常年及汛期的含沙量及输沙量变化。泾河年均径流量仅为渭河的1/2倍(资料截止1997),输沙量却为渭河的2.35倍,含沙量为渭河的4.57倍。现在是泾浊渭清。输沙量与最大流量间为正相关关系,相关系数渭河为0.7516,泾河为0.8279。输沙量季节集中的程度更大,最大月输沙量占年输沙量的71.23%,最大月径流量占年径流量的39.22%。渭河较小的输沙量在于气候干旱导致的径流量减小。泾河较大的输沙量在于泾河流域现代人为活动对生态系统破坏更为严重。     

Pleistocene river systems in the southern peribaltic area as indication of interglacial sea level changes in the Baltic Basin

The modern drainage system of central Poland developed during the Holsteinian, but it originated from the Elsterian glacial tunnel valleys and deglacial residual overflow lakes. In spite of occupation of this area by the Wartanian ice sheet and the following formation of the landscape during deglaciation, a similar river network was renewed during the Eemian. During the Weichselian the Middle Vistula valley was subjected to widespread ice-dam deposition. This resulted in rise of the base level of erosion and in westward deflection of the runoff, connected with development of the Central European spillways. The presented reconstruction of the Middle and Late Pleistocene fluvial network shows that the Holstein and Eemian sea levels were the driving force for river system development in central Poland. The Holstein and Eemian sea levels were very close to the present water level of the Baltic Sea. They made interglacial fluvial patterns roughly similar to the contemporary one, and therefore the main watersheds have been only slightly modified since that time. However, due to the considerable southward extension of the sea during the Eemian and presumably also during the Holsteinian, buried interglacial river deposits in central Poland occur at present well beneath the Holocene alluvia.     

Characteristics and causes of changes in annual runoff of the Wuding River in 1956–2009

The Yellow River is the second largest river in China. Its runoff experienced rapid changes in the past decades. The trend and driving forces of change of the river’s runoff has been a hot topic in some academic fields in China in recent years, due to its importance in solving the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources, reasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources and its significance in promoting the social, economic and ecologically sustainable development. The Wuding River is one of the large tributaries in the Middle Yellow River and soil and water conservation measures have been implemented in the tributary much earlier. It can be a good example for investigating the trend and causes of changes of runoff of the Yellow River. In this paper, the variation trend and abrupt change are determined in the time series of annual runoff of the Wuding River recorded at a hydrological station near its outlet during the period from 1956 to 2009 using several time series analysis methods. Secondly, the influences of climate change and human activities are estimated through calculating the amount of runoff reduction due to climate change in different periods. Results show that the annual runoff was continually decreasing, the drought trend was aggravating, and abrupt change in runoff series appeared in 1971 and 1997 as a result of large scale water and soil conservation measure after 1971 and ecosystem restoration program since 1997. It is also found that human activities were the main influence factor for runoff reduction during the period from 1972 to 2009. The contributions from climate change increased from about 23 to 30 %, and those from human activities decreased from 77 to 70 % from the period of 1972–1996 to the period of 1997–2009. Finally, a formula is built to reveal the relation of runoff with both climate factors and each main kind of human activities.     

冻土退化对海拉尔河流域水文过程的影响

利用海拉尔河流域内气象站点1974—2006年冻土冻结深度资料和水文站点1974—2008年的径流资料,通过建立冻结深度和径流的关系,研究了区域近30年来冻土变化对径流变化的影响。结果表明:近30年来,海拉尔、坝后和红花尔基水文站1~3月份径流量有13%~20%的增长,牙克石水文站径流量增长不显著。退水曲线由陡峭趋于平滑,冬季2月份径流量与秋季11月份径流量比值呈增大趋势,同期流域冻土的最大冻结深度减小了50 cm左右。这表明海拉尔河流域冬季退水过程有减缓趋势且冻土的退化是导致退水变慢的主要原因。冻土退化的这一水文效应主要是由于:① 随着冻土年内隔水效应减弱,流域内有更多的地表水入渗变成地下水,造成流域地下水储水量加大,导致冬季径流增加; ② 随着春夏季冻土平均厚度的减薄,流域地下水库库容增加,地下水枯季径流补给能力增强,导致流域退水时间延迟;③ 冻土对气候变暖的响应是一个缓慢的过程,因此冻土退化对径流过程的影响也是一个渐变过程。     

The Baltic-Kattegat-Skagerrak estuarine system

Measurements of alkalinities and calcium concentrations in the Baltic Sea indicate that there has been a slight increase in both these parameters over the last century. These increases may have been caused by the leaching of limestone by acid rain. About ten percent of the nutrients are exported from the Baltic to the Kattegat; however, very little, if any, alkalinity is stored in the Baltic since river input and system output are approximately equal. Since the precipitation and evaporation are almost equal in the Baltic Sea, corrections are not needed for river inputs.     

人类活动对河口咸水入侵的影响

采用新安江水库建库前后及钱塘江河口治江缩窄前后的实测氯度资料分析了大型调节水库增加了枯水径流,治江缩窄改变了潮汐特性和进潮量这两类人类活动对咸水入侵的影响,又采用一维咸水入侵数学模型进行了上述影响的验证和计算分析,结论基本一致.     

Flow and high sediment yield from the Huangfuchuan watershed

This study deals with general features of sediment transport in the Huangfuchuan river, an important branch river of the Yellow river, draining the Loess Plateau in China. The long-term precipitation records at 3 climate stations near the watershed have been used to assess the changes in precipitation in this region. By introducing metrics for runoff and sediment transport, long-term observations on discharge and sediment concentration at the Huangfuchuan gauging station on the Huangfuchuan river have been used to assess the changes in runoff and sediment transport in the Huangfuchuan River compared with those at the Toudaoguai and Fugu gauging stations on the Yellow river. It is found that both runoff and sediment metrics have a clearly downward trend. From July to August, the long-term sediment transport modulus at the Huangfuchuan gauging station is much higher than those at the Toudaoguai and Fugu stations on the Yellow river. The long-term average sediment transport modulus at the Huangfuchuan gauging station are high, ranging from 14000. t/(km² y) but decreasing to 5900 t/(km² y) over the last 10 years. Additionally, analyses on grain size distribution of suspended load in the Huangfuchuan and Yellow river have been conducted.     

南方多沙河流水沙演变特征及水库的影响分析

以我国南方一多沙河流控制性水文站1959~2010年共52年的实测水沙资料为基础,运用Mann-Kendall法、变差系数、类比法和灰色系统理论等分析了该河的水沙演变特征及其梯级开发的影响。结果表明:①该河的水沙演变特征具有明显的年代际差异;在梯级开发前水沙均呈上升趋势,在梯级开发建库后呈下降趋势;输沙量的变化较径流量的变化显著。②水沙变化呈正相关关系;梯级开发后径流量和输沙量都明显小于梯级开发前;在1986年和2008年水沙关系有较明显的变化。③梯级开发会使径流量和输沙量减少;梯级开发是该河2008年水沙关系发生变化和输沙量明显减小的主要原因。     

高寒山区冻土对水文过程的影响研究——以黑河上游八宝河为例

冻土对寒区水文过程具有重要的调节作用,是寒区水循环研究的核心内容之一.在分布式水文模型中对土壤冻融过程进行显式表达,对探索寒区水循环的机理、定量研究寒区流域径流的时空变化十分重要.先在黑河上游八宝河流域对考虑了土壤冻融过程的分布式水文模型进行简单验证,然后分析土壤冻融对流域水文过程的影响.对考虑和不考虑土壤冻融的模型模拟结果进行对比,发现冻土对流域的产流方式和速度有很大的影响,主要表现为：1）考虑冻土时,流域产流以壤中流为主,径流对降雨或融雪的响应速度较快,径流过程线变化较为剧烈,径流系数较高.冻土有效地阻碍了入渗过程,促进地表径流和壤中流的形成.壤中流发生的平均土壤深度冬季深,春季浅,年平均深度约为1.1 m;2）在不考虑冻土时,土壤下渗能力强,地下水补给是考虑冻土时的3倍,流域产流方式以基流为主,径流对降雨或融雪的响应速度减缓,径流过程线较为平滑,夏季洪峰在时间上存在明显的延迟.即便在降水强度较大的夏天,流域内都不会产生地表产流,而且壤中流产流的平均土壤深度平稳地处于2.4 m左右.研究对从机理上认识土壤冻融对水文过程的影响有一定的帮助.     

人类活动影响下的干旱区河流地貌演变——以塔里木河为例

全球范围内干旱区河流正日益受到高强度人类活动的扰动,但较少研究报道这种扰动对河流地貌过程的影响。采用历史文献、水文数据和遥感影像相结合的方式,详细分析了人类活动影响下中国最大内陆河塔里木河（简称塔河）的河流地貌变化过程。结果表明:塔河流域人类活动的规模和强度日趋上升,对河流水沙过程和地貌形态等影响显著。近50年来,塔河干流低流量过程发生频率呈显著上升趋势,而中、高流量过程则呈降低趋势,河道径流和输沙量减少显著。塔河干流上游现为游荡河道,冲淤变化剧烈且总体处于淤积抬升状态, 但河道平均河宽呈减小趋势,可能是因为塔河两岸冲积平原的开垦和河岸加固。塔河中游弯曲河道蜿蜒系数在近几十年呈缓慢上升趋势,但明显低于废弃古河道。     

新疆冰川近期变化及其对水资源的影响研究

新疆的冰川水资源居全国第一,在新疆水资源构成和河川径流调节方面占有重要地位。最近30多年来,随着气温升高,冰川出现了剧烈的消融退缩,冰川融水径流量普遍增加,并对气温的依赖性增强。文章基于最新冰川观测研究资料,阐述新疆冰川的近期变化,分析对水资源的影响。研究表明,所研究的1800条冰川,在过去26～44年间,总面积缩小了11.7％,平均每条冰川缩小0.243km2,末端退缩速率5.8m/a。冰川在不同区域的缩小比率为8.8％～34.2％,单条冰川的平均缩小量为0.092～0.415km²,末端平均后退量为 3.5～10.5m/a。由于新疆各流域中冰川的分布、变化特征,以及融水所占河川径流的比例不同,因此,未来气候变化对新疆各个区域水资源的影响程度和表现形式是不同的。分析表明,在塔里木河流域,冰川水资源具有举足轻重的作用,但是,一旦冰川消融殆尽,对该地区将产生灾难性影响,现今该区冰川消融正盛,估计在今后30～50年,只要保持升温,冰川融水量仍会维持。未来20～40年,天山北麓水系中,1km²左右的小冰川趋于消失,大于5km²冰川消融强烈,因此,以小冰川居多的河流受冰川变化的影响较大。东疆盆地水系中的冰川数量少,并处在加速消融状态,河川径流对冰川的依赖性强,冰川的变化已经对水资源量及年内分配产生影响,水资源已经处在不断恶化之中。对于伊犁河与额尔齐斯河流域,未来冰川变化对水资源的影响在数量上可能有限,但会大大削弱冰川融水径流的调节功能。而气候变化对积雪水资源的影响和可能造成的后果应该予以特别关注。     

Geo-spatial dynamics of snowcover and hydro-meteorological parameters of Astore basin,UIB, HKH Region,Pakistan

Snowcover dynamics and associated accumulation and depletion of snowcover along with its spatial and temporal scale mainly constitute hydrological phenomena of the given basin and are mostly controlled by the local climate variables. Snow accumulation and melting time and duration determine the cyclic volume of water resources and downstream availability. In this study, snowcover area (SCA) was extracted from remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow products (MOD10A2) for the period 2000–2016. Data for hydro-meteorological parameters was obtained from relevant departments acquired through their field stations. The analysis of 16-year satellite data shows that there is a slight increase in cryospheric area at high altitude. In Astore basin, the study concluded that 15–20% of the basin area is covered by glacier and snowcover may reach around 90–95% of the basin area due to accumulation of seasonal snow from the westerly wind circulation. Analysis of hydro-meteorological parameters showed significant correlation between temperatures (T_max, T_min) and river runoff while no significant correlation was observed between river runoff and rainfall. Similarly, significant inverse correlation was found between river runoff and Astore mean snowcover. At sub-altitudinal zone level (zones 1, 2, 3), river runoff has significant correlation with snowcover. Analysis of 20-year climate data along with river runoff depicts that river runoff is a general phenomenon of snowmelt when minimum temperature starts to rise above 4 °C during mid of April. The study highlights the importance and interdependence of meteorological parameters and snowcover dynamics in determining the hydrological characteristics of Astore Basin.     

考虑区间正负入流量的自适应洪水预报模型

根据甘肃省气候条件和地理环境十分复杂，河流站网密度低，面对上下游区间有正负入流量且没有观测资料，以水量平衡原理为基础的河道洪水演算无法进行的实际情况，立足于利用现有上下游水站的水情信息，在传统系统水模型和河道汇流理论有关原理、方法的基础上，提出了考虑区间正负入流量的自适应洪水预报模型，改进了现行系统输入～输出水量不平衡关系，解决了甘肃省河流洪水过程无法预报的问题。具有十分广阔的应用前景。     

气候变暖背景下极端气候对青海祁连山水文水资源的影响

利用青海祁连山区极端气候要素和青海湖、哈拉湖及主要河流的水文资料,研究表明：冷夜日数（10%）呈显著减少趋势,暖夜日数（90%）呈显著增加趋势;年大风日数显著减少;年降水量21世纪初增加趋势最为显著并发生突变,降水量增加幅度中西段大于东段;≥ 5 mm、≥ 10 mm、≥ 25 mm年降水日数呈显著增加趋势,进入21世纪后更为明显,而≥ 0.1 mm年降水日数呈减少趋势;年平均大风日数与湖泊水位、河流流量变化呈负相关,大风天气的减少,可以缓解湖面和土壤因蒸发而导致的水分损失,对植被的改善可增加径流的产生,流入湖泊的流量增加;降水量与湖泊水位、河流流量呈正相关,受21世纪降水量增加的影响青海湖水位逐年上升,共上升1.67 m,达到20世纪70年代末的水位,中西部主要河流流量近几年也达到最大值,而东段流量增加不明显;祁连山区≥ 5 mm、≥ 10 mm、≥ 25 mm年平均降水量与湖泊、河流流量变化呈正相关,各量级年降水量对湖泊水位、河流流量的增加贡献显著。     

气候变化和人类活动对辽河中上游径流变化的贡献

辽河中上游地区腹地是科尔沁沙地, 河流径流是其重要补给源, 研究径流及其变化原因对水资源合理开发利用、生态环境治理有重要的实践意义. 以辽河中上游地区下洼、福山地、乌丹3个典型水文站点为基础, 将气候变化归结为水热条件变化, 通过改进的累积量斜率变化率比较法, 定量分析径流变化、气候变化和人类活动对径流变化量的贡献. 结果表明: 径流量多年来呈减少趋势, 随降水的增加而增加, 随平均气温的升高而减少. 径流量在2000年代最小, 相对1990年代减少了45.89%~82.13%. 径流突变点为1995年和1998年, 1995-2010年(1999-2010年)与1957-1994年(1957-1998年)相比, 下洼、福山地、乌丹站控制流域气候变化对径流减少的贡献率分别为41.57%、60.20%和36.76%, 人类活动贡献率分别为58.43%、39.80%和63.24%.     

Yearly variations in runoff as a function of precipitation variations for the East-European plain

Variations in climatic conditions for the East-European Plain (EEP) are analysed. The observations show that the time periods of high-water and low-water correspond to certain circulation conditions, which points to a conceptual possibility to construct a model correlating streamflow with atmospheric precipitation. Described is a linear model based on a regression equation for the principal components of runoff and precipitation. The model presents the best results for a territory where a strong reaction of the river water to a certain circulation type has been established beforehand.