Implications of the observed distributions of very long period comet orbits

With allowance for galactic perturbations and observational error, the observed distributions of sizes an orientations of very long period comets are consistent with a uniform distribution of comets within the Oort Cloud.     

A model of the galactic tidal interaction with the oort comet cloud

We consider a model of the in situ Oort cloud which is isotropic with a random distrihution of perihelia directions and angular momenta. The energy distribution adopted has a continuous range of values appropriate for long-period (>200 yr) comets. Only the tidal torque of the Galaxy is included as a perturbation of comet orbits and it is approximated to be that due to a quasi-steady state distribution of matter with disk-like symmetry. The time evolution of all orbital elements can be analytically obtained for this case. In particular, the change in the perihelion distance per orbit and its dependence on other orbital elements is readily found. We further make the assumption that a comet whose perihelion distance was beyond 15 AU during its last passage through the Solar System would have orbit parameters that are essentially unchanged by planetary perturbations. Conversely, if the prior passage was inside 15 AU we assume that planetary perturbations would have removed the comet from the in situ energy distribution accessible by the galactic tide. Comets which had their perihelia changed from beyond 15 AU to within 5 AU in a single orbit are taken to be observable. We are able to track the evolution of 10⁶ comets as they are made observable by the galactic tidal touque. Detailed results are obtained for the predicted distribution of new (0 < 1/ < 10^–4 AU^–1) comets. Further, correlations between orbital elements can be studied. We present predictions of observed distributions and compare them with the random in situ results as well as with the actual observed distributions of class I comets. The predictions are in reasonable agreement with actual observations and, in many cases, are significantly different from random when perihelia directions are separated into galactic northern and southern hemispheres. However the well-known asymmetry in the north-south populations of perihelia remains to be explained. Such an asymmetry is consistent with the dominance of tidal torques today if a major stochastic event produced it in the past since tidal torques are unable to cause the migration of perihelia across the latitude barriers ±26°.6 in the disk model.     

The reality of comet groups and pairs

Although the common genetic origin of the Kreutz family of Sun-grazing comets has generally been accepted, there remains uncertainty with regard to genetic identity among other groups of comets whose orbital elements are nearly alike. Porter has listed a number of such grouds and Öpik has made a statistical study of the orbits of 472 comets with aphelion distance beyond Saturn. He lists 97 groups that show similarities among their three angular elements. He calculates an overall probability of some 10^?39 that these similarities could have occurred by chance, and thus concludes that 60% or more of such comets fall into genetic groups containing from two to seven members. This paper explores the statistical reality of Öpik's groups utilizing the Monte Carlo method of statistics as well as ordinary probability theory. The conclusion is reached that except for a few pairs the similarity among orbital elements within the groups is no greater than random expectation.     

Searching for the source of short-period comet nuclei: The direction of the spatial migration of comets

An attempt is made to determine the spatial location of the main source of short-period comet nuclei. Numerical calculations for the orbital evolution of Jupiter family comets, medium-period comets, and Centaurs are used to show that the orbits of small solar system bodies tend to evolve in the direction of increasing semimajor axes. This relates to bodies that can experience encounters with planets and whose orbital evolution is shaped by gravitational perturbations. It is concluded that there is good reason to search for the main source of the nuclei of Jupiter family comets at distances of 6 AU or less from the sun.     

Orbit of periodic comet 153P/Ikeya–Zhang

The orbit of Comet C/2002C1 (Ikeya–Zhang) has a similarity to that of Comet C/1661C1 (Hevelius), and the numerical integration of the motion of C/2002C1 backward shows a possible linkage of those two comets. Thus, 153P/Ikeya–Zhang was designated a periodic comet. Historical records of comets in 877 and 1273 are also identified with Comet 153P/Ikeya–Zhang. The integrated orbital elements during 77 and 2362, and historical records of the comet are also presented and discussed.     

Development of a comet as it pursues its orbit

The properties of cometary dust-swarms in almost parabolic long-period orbits are examined. In general their self-gravitation is stronger than the solar disruptive influence for all except the relatively small part of the orbit within planetary distances during which the sun dominates by so great a factor that the individual particles of the swarm pursue independent orbits apart from the possibility of collisions between them. At aphelion the internal relative speeds of particles are only a few centimetres per second, but at and near perihelion they may rise to the order of a kilometre per second. For purely dynamical reasons the extent of the swarm in directions perpendicular to the orbital motion will strongly diminish as perihelion is approached and correspondingly increase thereafter, while the dimension along the orbit will change in direct proportion to the orbital velocity. Every particle must cross through the median orbital plane near perihelion, and collisions between a proportion of the particles will occur at speeds capable of fragmenting them into myriads of smaller dustparticles, also heating them at and near the colliding elements of their surfaces. Increase of reflected sunlight will result and also release of material in gaseous form by solar plus collisional heating. Sufficiently finely divided dust particles will be driven out of the comet by radiation-pressure to form a dust-tail, while suitable gaseous compounds if present will be driven out to give a gas-tail. For Sungrazing comets, complete gasification must occur at and near perihelion, and very considerable extension along the orbit. Such comets would recondense to small solid particles on receding again from the Sun. The effect of passage of the solar system through interstellar gas-clouds is shown to be capable of substantially affecting the angular momentum of a comet about the Sun, thus accounting for the existence of comets with high values of perihelion-distance. This same process would enable cometary particles to adsorb interstellar gases at their surfaces and regenerate their gas-content. The mass-loss by a comet at each return strongly indicates, that comets cannot have originated at the same time as the planets, a result further supported by the rapid expulsion of entire comets through purely dynamical action of the planets. That the quiescent structure of comets consists of a vast widely spaced swarm of minute dust-particles receives circumstantial support from the highly varied and peculiar properties long since recorded for numerous comets. These properties exhibit such erratic diversity as to make clear that only a theory involving considerable range of essential parameters can be capable of accounting for them adequately.     

The distribution of short-period comet magnitudes

Short-period comets with P 15 yr represent one of the most complete comet samples. The magnitude distribution of these comets was analysed using a maximum likelihood method. The brightness (magnitude) index for the comets with H ₁₀ 11 mag was estimated together with the large sample errors and found to be 0.62 ± 0.09. It was clear that many faint comets with H ₁₀ > 11 mag remain to be discovered. Some of the faint, smaller comets have probably been removed from the distribution altogether.Observational selection was also apparent for the sample of comets with perihelia q < 1.5 AU. It was found that comets satisfying the combined criteria P 15 yr, H ₁₀ 11 mag, q < 1.5 AU probably represent the most complete set of comets available. The brightness index of this sample estimated by maximum likelihood was 0.69 ± 0.14. This translates into a mass distribution index s of 1.69 ± 0.14 indicating that most of the mass is contained in a few of the larger comets rather than spread throughout the smaller ones. This distribution, although modified by mass loss, is most likely to have been produced by a process of particle accretion.     

Evolution of comet orbits under the perturbing influence of the giant planets and nearby stars

The orbital evolution of 500 hypothetical comets during 10⁹ years is studied numerically. It is assumed that the birthplace of such comets was the region of Uranus and Neptune from where they were deflected into very elongated orbits by perturbations of these planets. Then, we adopted the following initial orbital elements: perihelion distances between 20 and 30 AU, inclinations to the ecliptic plane smaller than 20°, and semimajor axes from 5 × 10³ to 5 × 10⁴ AU. Gravitational perturbations by the four giant planets and by hypothetical stars passing at distances from the Sun smaller than 5 × 10⁵ AU are considered. During the simulation, somewhat more than 50% of the comets were lost from the solar system due to planetary or stellar perturbations. The survivors were removed from the planetary region and left as members of what is generally known as the cometary cloud. At the end of the studied period, the semimajor axes of the surviving comets tend to be concentrated in the interval 2 × 10⁴ < a < 3 × 10⁴ AU. The orbital planes of the comets with initial $\text{a ≧ 3 × 10}{}^4\text{AU}$ acquired a complete randomization while the others still maintain a slight predominance of direct orbits. In addition, comet orbits with final a < 6 × 10⁴AU preserve high eccentricities with an average value greater than 0.8 Most “new” comets from the sample entering the region interior to Jupiter's orbit had already registered earlier passages through the planetary region. By scaling up the rate of paritions of hypothetical new comets with the observed one, the number of members of the cometary cloud is estimated to be about 7 × 10¹⁰ and the conclusion is drawn that Uranus and Neptune had to remove a number of comets ten times greater.     

Orbits of short period comets captured from the Oort cloud

Oort cloud comets occasionally obtain orbits which take them through the planetary region. The perturbations by the planets are likely to change the orbit of the comet. We model this process by using a Monte Carlo method and cross sections for orbital changes, i.e. changes in energy, inclination and perihelion distance, in a single planet-comet encounter. The influence of all major planets is considered. We study the distributions of orbital parameters of observable comets, i.e. those which have perihelion distance smaller than a given value. We find that enough comets are captured from the Oort cloud in order to explain the present populations of short period comets. The median value of cos i for the Jupiter family is 0.985 while it is 0.27 for the Halley types. The results may explain the orbital features of short period comets, assuming that the active lifetime of a comet is not much greater than 400 orbital revolutions.     

Orbits of short period comets captured from the Oort cloud

Oort cloud comets occasionally obtain orbits which take them through the planetary region. The perturbations by the planets are likely to change the orbit of the comet. We model this process by using a Monte Carlo method and cross sections for orbital changes, i.e. changes in energy, inclination and perihelion distance, in a single planet-comet encounter. The influence of all major planets is considered. We study the distributions of orbital parameters of observable comets, i.e. those which have perihelion distance smaller than a given value. We find that enough comets are captured from the Oort cloud in order to explain the present populations of short period comets. The median value of cos i for the Jupiter family is 0.985 while it is 0.27 for the Halley types. The results may explain the orbital features of short period comets, assuming that the active lifetime of a comet is not much greater than 400 orbital revolutions.     

Long-period comet flux in the planetary region: Dynamical evolution from the Oort cloud

This study analyzes the evolution of 2 × 10⁵ orbits with initial parameters corresponding to the orbits of comets of the Oort cloud under the action of planetary, galactic, and stellar perturbations over 2 × 10⁹ years. The dynamical evolution of comets of the outer (orbital semimajor axes a > 10⁴ AU) and inner (5 × 10³ < a (AU) < 10⁴) parts of the comet cloud is analyzed separately. The estimates of the flux of “new” and long-period comets for all perihelion distances q in the planetary region are reported. The flux of comets with a > 10⁴ AU in the interval 15 AU < q < 31 AU is several times higher than the flux of comets in the region q < 15 AU. We point out the increased concentration of the perihelia of orbits of comets from the outer cloud, which have passed several times through the planetary system, in the Saturn-Uranus region. The maxima in the distribution of the perihelia of the orbits of comets of the inner Oort cloud are located in the Uranus-Neptune region. “New” comets moving in orbits with a < 2 × 10⁴ AU and arriving at the outside of the planetary system (q > 25 AU) subsequently have a greater number of returns to the region q < 35 AU. The perihelia of the orbits of these comets gradually drift toward the interior of the Solar System and accumulate beyond the orbit of Saturn. The distribution of the perihelia of long-period comets beyond the orbit of Saturn exhibits a peak. We discuss the problem of replenishing the outer Oort cloud by comets from the inner part and their subsequent dynamical evolution. The annual rate of passages of comets of the inner cloud, which replenish the outer cloud, in the region q < 1 AU in orbits with a > 10⁴ AU (～ 5.0 × 10^?14 yr^?1) is one order of magnitude lower than the rate of passage of comets from the outer Oort cloud (～ 9.1 × 10^?13 yr^?1).     

The frequency and intensity of comet showers from the Oort cloud

We simulate the Oort comet cloud to study the rate and properties of new comets and the intensity and frequency of comet showers. An ensemble of ∼10⁶ comets is perturbed at random times by a population of main sequence stars and white dwarfs that is described by the Bahcall-Soneira Galaxy model. A cloning procedure allows us to model a large ensemble of comets efficiently, without wasting computer time following a large number of low eccentricity orbits. For comets at semimajor axis a = 20,000 AU, about every 100 myr a star with mass in the range 1M_⊙−2M_⊙ passes within ∼10,000 AU of the Sun and triggers a shower that enhances the flux of new comets by more than a factor of 10. The time-integrated flux is dominated by the showers for comets with semimajor axes less than ∼30,000 AU. For semimajor axes greater than ∼30,000 AU the comet loss rate is roughly constant and strong showers do not occur. In some of our simulations, comets are also perturbed by the Galactic tidal field. The inclusion of tidal effects increases the loss rate of comets with semimajor axes between 10,000 and 20,000 AU by about a factor of 4. Thus the Galactic tide, rather than individual stellar perturbations, is the dominant mechanism which drives the evolution of the Oort cloud.     

Structure and Dynamics of the Centaur Population: Constraints on the Origin of Short-Period Comets

The origin of Jupiter-family comets is linked to the intermediate stage of evolution through the Centaur region. Thus the structure of the Centaur population provides important constraints on sources of short-period comets. We show that our model of the Oort cloud evolution gives results which are consistent with the orbital distribution of observed Centaurs. In particular, it explains the existence of the large population of Centaurs with semimajor axes greater than 60 AU. The main source for these objects is the inner Oort cloud. Both Jupiter-family and Halley-type comets are produced by Centaurs originating from the Oort cloud. The injection rate for Jupiter-family comets coming from the inner Oort cloud is, at least, not less than that for a model based on the observed sample of high-eccentricity trans-Neptunian objects.     

The variation of short-period comet size and decay rate with perihelion distance

Out of over 200 known short-period comets, we analyse a self-consistent list of 105 comets which have accurately estimated nuclei radii. It is found that both the median size and the size distribution index of these comets vary as a function of the perihelion distance, q , of the cometary orbit. A value of   q ≈ 2.7 au  divides the comets into an outer solar system group which are hardly affected by decay, and an inner solar system group which are decaying quickly. It is estimated that 10, 20 and 30 per cent of the 105 comets will have decayed away after 1000, 2000 and 3000 yr, respectively.     

On the actual existence of the periodic and long-period comet families of Uranus

Aphelion distances of the known periodic comets in the range 12–26 AU are analyzed. The aphelia of 12 of the 38 known comets are found to be concentrated at 19.23–20.91 AU, i.e., near the heliocentric distance of Uranus, which seems unlikely to be a coincidence. It is shown by testing that there is also a significant redundancy of distant nodes of the periodic comets’ orbits in the region of motion of Uranus. This is confirmed by the analysis of the MOIDs in the comet-Uranus system. The values of the Tisserand constant for some of the comets exhibit less dispersion relative to Uranus than to Saturn, Jupiter, and the Earth. We selected 20 long-period comets with distant nodes near the region of motion of Uranus. It is shown that, given a uniform spatial distribution, there must be 12 such nodes. Considering the distant nodes and the MOIDs, the planet is likely to have a dynamical connection with the selected group of comets. The distant nodes and perihelia of both periodic and long-period comets are found to be redundant in the directions 76° and 256°, which is qualitatively consistent with the hypothesis of eruptive origin of comets.     

Faint comet searching

Comets are usually discovered to a magnitude limit of B_lim～19 at best. This can be improved by one magnitude with a blank-search technique that is described here. To find a new comet, the required search area near opposition is ～600 square degrees at B_lim～20.0. Three faint comets were found this way; they are inconspicuous and would not have been discovered in any other manner. It therefore appears that the presently known statistics must be incomplete at the faint end due to incompleteness of the discovery observations. Another, future, method to find such inconspicuous comets is with electronically scanning cameras and computerized reduction. If such a CCD scannerscope were to have a ～1.8-m aperture, it could discover at least 40 comets per year.     

Vaporization of comet nuclei: Light curves and life times

We have examined the effects of vaporization from the nucleus of a comet and show that a latitude dependence of vaporization can, in some cases, explain asymmetries in cometary light curves. We also find that a non-uniform distribution of solar radiation over a comet can considerably shorten the vaporization lifetime compared to the results normally obtained by assuming that the nuclear surface is isothermal.Independent of any latitude effects, comets with CO₂-dominated nuclei and with perihelion distances less than 0.5 AU have vaporization lifetimes less than or comparable to their dynamical ejection times. This may explain the observed deficit of comets with small perihelion distances. Similarly comets with CO₂-dominated nuclei and perihelia near Jupiter's orbit have vaporization lifetimes that are shorter than the time for capture into short-period orbits. We suggest, therefore, that at least some new comets are composed in large part of CO₂, while only H₂O-dominated comets, with lower vaporization rates, can survive to be captured into short-period orbits.     

A Monte Carlo investigation of Jovian perturbations on short-period comet orbits

We present statistical distributions of Jovian perturbations on short-period comet orbits resulting from accurate numerical integrations. Our sample of 60, 000 cometary orbits with low inclinations and random orientations is characterized by perihelia between 0 and 7 AU and aphelia between 4 and 13 AU. The perturbations considered are those experienced because of Jupiter's gravitation per orbital revolution by the comets. Regularization and accurate step-length control in the numerical integration gives statistical results appreciably different from those computed by Rickman and Vaghi (1978). Their use of a crude method of integration led to erroneous results for close encounters. Strong asymmetries of the $\text{δ(}\text{1}\text{a}\text{)}$ distributions, in particular for the extreme tails, are observed for perihelion- or aphelion-tangent orbits. These orbits are also shown to experience the strongest energy perturbations on the average. Some results concerning the perturbations of Tisserand parameters are indicated. The perturbation distributions for the angular elements are described and discussed. The role of the minimum distance from Jupiter as an indicator of perturbations is investigated.     

Is 2329 Orthos a dead comet?

Probably most meteor showers have a cometary origin. Investigation of Near-Earth asteroids' orbital evolution to determine whether they have related meteor showers is necessary to determine which asteroids evolved from comets. The results of calculations show that asteroid Orthos' orbit is an octuple Earth-crosser. Therefore, if Orthos has an old meteoroid stream it may produce eight meteor showers observable on the Earth. The existence of four Orthos' Northern meteor showers is confirmed by our search in the published catalogues of meteor radiants and orbits or in the archives of the IAU Meteor Data Center (Lund, Sweden).     

A possible comet and asteroid link in the formation of comets

The origin of comets is reassessed in the light of IRAS discoveries of particles in the asteroid belt and much cooler “cirrus” clouds at large heliocentric distances. The component of the asteroid particles with ratios of radiation pressure to gravitational forces near one-half will be forced into highly eccentric orbits, with heliocentric distances in the outer Solar System region of the hypothesized Oort Cloud. While slowly passing near their aphelia these particles could acquire a mantle of interstellar frost. It is proposed that larger asteroidal bodies gravitationally perturbed to similar distances would serve as centers for gravitational collation so that upon their return to the inner Solar System they will have a structure satisfying the observational requirements of Whipple's dirty snowball model. This model of origin would explain the established connections to meteor streams and fireballs, the possible connection to carbonaceous chondrites, and can be tested in several ways. The model would lead to the conclusion that comets are a renewable resource and eliminates the need for the 10¹⁰-fold multiplication between the number of observed and hypothesized comets necessary for the Oort Cloud model.