Implications for Future Survival of Delta Smelt from Four Climate Change Scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California

Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smelt Hypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertain. By mid-century, the position of the low salinity zone in the fall and the habitat suitability index converged on values only observed during the worst droughts of the baseline period (1969–2000). Projected higher water temperatures would render waters historically inhabited by delta smelt near the confluence of the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers largely uninhabitable. However, the scenarios of climate change are based on assumptions that require caution in the interpretation of the results. Projections like these provide managers with a useful tool for anticipating long-term challenges to managing fish populations and possibly adapting water management to ameliorate those challenges.     

Statistical Models of Temperature in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta Under Climate-Change Scenarios and Ecological Implications

Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well (R ² values greater than 0.93 during verification periods) for all stations within the Delta and San Francisco Bay provided there was at least 1 year of calibration data. To provide long-term projections of Delta water temperature, we forced the model with downscaled data from climate scenarios. Based on these projections, the ecological implications for the delta smelt, a key species, were assessed based on temperature thresholds. The model forecasts increases in the number of days above temperatures causing high mortality (especially along the Sacramento River) and a shift in thermal conditions for spawning to earlier in the year.     

Decadal-Timescale Estuarine Geomorphic Change Under Future Scenarios of Climate and Sediment Supply

Future estuarine geomorphic change, in response to climate change, sea-level rise, and watershed sediment supply, may govern ecological function, navigation, and water quality. We estimated geomorphic changes in Suisun Bay, CA, under four scenarios using a tidal-timescale hydrodynamic/sediment transport model. Computational expense and data needs were reduced using the morphological hydrograph concept and the morphological acceleration factor. The four scenarios included (1) present-day conditions; (2) sea-level rise and freshwater flow changes of 2030; (3) sea-level rise and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030; and (4) sea-level rise, freshwater flow changes, and decreased watershed sediment supply of 2030. Sea-level rise increased water levels thereby reducing wave-induced bottom shear stress and sediment redistribution during the wind-wave season. Decreased watershed sediment supply reduced net deposition within the estuary, while minor changes in freshwater flow timing and magnitude induced the smallest overall effect. In all future scenarios, net deposition in the entire estuary and in the shallowest areas did not keep pace with sea-level rise, suggesting that intertidal and wetland areas may struggle to maintain elevation. Tidal-timescale simulations using future conditions were also used to infer changes in optical depth: though sea-level rise acts to decrease mean light irradiance, decreased suspended-sediment concentrations increase irradiance, yielding small changes in optical depth. The modeling results also assisted with the development of a dimensionless estuarine geomorphic number representing the ratio of potential sediment import forces to sediment export forces; we found the number to be linearly related to relative geomorphic change in Suisun Bay. The methods implemented here are widely applicable to evaluating future scenarios of estuarine change over decadal timescales.     

Spatiotemporal Models of an Estuarine Fish Species to Identify Patterns and Factors Impacting Their Distribution and Abundance

Understanding the distribution and abundance of organisms can be exceedingly difficult for pelagic fish species that live in estuarine environments. This is particularly so for fish that cannot be readily marked and released or otherwise tracked, such as the diminutive delta smelt, Hypomesus transpacificus, endemic to the San Francisco Estuary. The environmental factors that influence their distribution operate at multiple scales, from daily tidal cycles and local perceptual fields to seasonal and annual changes in dominant environmental gradients spanning the entire San Francisco Estuary. To quantify scale-specific patterns and factors shaping the spatiotemporal abundance dynamics of adult delta smelt, we fit a suite of models to an extensive, spatially resolved, catch survey time series from 13 annual cohorts. The best model included cohort-specific abundance indicators and daily mortality rates, a regional spatial adjustment, and haul-specific environmental conditions. The regional adjustment identified several density hot spots that were persistent across cohorts. While this model did include local environmental conditions, the gain in explained variation was relatively slight compared to that explained by the regional adjustment. Total abundance estimates were derived by multiplying habitat volume by catch density (design-based) and modeled density (model-based), with both showing severe declines in the population over the time period studied. The design-based approaches had lower uncertainty but potentially higher bias. We discuss the implications of our results for advancing the science and improving management of delta smelt, and future data collection needs.     

Long-Term Seasonal Trends in the Prey Community of Delta Smelt (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Hypomesus transpacificus</Emphasis>) Within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California

Abiotic factors and species introductions can alter food web timing, disrupt life cycles, and change life history expressions and the temporal scale of population dynamics in zooplankton communities. We examined physical, trophic, and zooplankton community dynamics in the San Francisco Estuary, California, a highly altered Mediterranean climate waterway, across a 43-year dataset (1972–2014). Before invasion by the suspension-feeding overbite clam (Potamocorbula amurensis) in the mid-1980s, the estuary demonstrated monomictic thermal mixing in which winter turbidity and cool temperatures contributed to seasonally low productivity, followed by a late-spring-summer clearing phase with warm water and peak phytoplankton blooms that continued into early winter. Following the clam invasion, we observed a shift in peak phytoplankton bloom timing, with peak productivity now occurring in May compared to June prior to the invasion. Peak abundance of several zooplankton taxa (Eurytemora affinis, Pseudodiaptomus, other calanoids, and non-copepods) also shifted to earlier in the season. We present the first evidence of a shift in the timing of peak abundance for zooplankton species that are key prey items of delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), a federally threatened pelagic fish species. These timing shifts may have exacerbated well-documented food limitations of delta smelt due to declines in primary productivity since the invasion of the overbite clam. Future conservation efforts in the estuary should consider measures designed to restore the timing and magnitude of pre-invasion phytoplankton blooms.     

水位变化条件下海湾水库盐分达标探讨

针对中国北方海湾水库间歇来水、连续取水和沉积物动态释盐的特点,建立水量与盐分耦合的数学模型,以青岛拟建的沐官岛水库为例,探讨水位变化条件下混合型海湾水库库水盐分的影响因素、超标风险与达标条件。模拟结果表明,在水库水位连续降低条件下,毫米量级的日蒸发量对库水盐分的累积效应显著。在不利水文条件下,受沉积物释盐、水分蒸发与人工取水的影响,混合型海湾水库长期存在盐分超标的风险。与水位不变时相反,水位降低时库水盐分浓度随着取水量的增大而升高;因此,当库水盐分存在超标风险时,可以通过减少日取水量实现库水盐分达标。为保障安全供水,在海湾水库设计与运营管理阶段,均需要综合考虑水量-盐分因素进行水库的日取水量调算。     

Application of Species Distribution Models to Identify Estuarine Hot Spots for Juvenile Nekton

Modeling the distribution and habitat capacities of key estuarine species can be used to identify hot spots, areas where species density is significantly higher than surrounding areas. This approach would be useful for establishing a baseline for evaluating future environmental scenarios across a landscape. We developed species distribution models for early juvenile life stages of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus), white shrimp (Litopenaeus setiferus), blue crab (Callinectes sapidus), and spotted seatrout (Cynoscion nebulosus) in order to delineate the current coastal hot spots that provide the highest quality habitat conditions for these estuarine-dependent species in Louisiana. Response curves were developed from existing long-term fisheries-independent monitoring data to identify habitat suitability for fragmented marsh landscapes. Response curves were then integrated with spatially explicit input data to generate species distribution models for the coastal region of Louisiana. Using spatial autocorrelation metrics, we detected clusters of suitable habitat across the Louisiana coast, but only 1% of the areas were identified as true hot spots with the highest habitat quality for nekton. The regions identified as hot spots were productive fringing marsh habitats that are considered the most vulnerable to natural and anthropogenic impacts. The species distribution models identify the coastal habitats which currently provide the greatest capacity for key estuarine species and will be used in the Louisiana coastal planning process to evaluate how species distributions may change under various environmental and restoration scenarios.     

Is the Response of Estuarine Nekton to Freshwater Flow in the San Francisco Estuary Explained by Variation in Habitat Volume?

Abundance of estuarine biota can vary with freshwater inflow through several mechanisms. One proposed mechanism is that the extent of physical habitat for an estuarine species increases with flow. We estimated the contribution of variation in habitat volume to the responses of eight species of estuarine nekton to changes in freshwater flow in the San Francisco Estuary. Resource selection functions for salinity and depth were developed for each species (and for five additional species) using five monitoring data sets. The TRIM3D hydrodynamic model was run for five steady flow scenarios to determine volume by salinity and depth, and resource selection functions were used as a weighting factor to calculate an index of total habitat for each species at each flow. The slopes of these habitat indices vs. flow were consistent with slopes of abundance vs. flow for only two of the species examined. Therefore, other mechanisms must underlie responses of abundance to flow for most species.     

The Arctic Ocean Estuary

Large freshwater contributions to the Arctic Ocean from a variety of sources combine in what is, by global standards, a remarkably small ocean basin. Indeed, the Arctic Ocean receives ∼11% of global river discharge while accounting for only ∼1% of global ocean volume. As a consequence, estuarine gradients are a defining feature not only near-shore, but throughout the Arctic Ocean. Sea-ice dynamics also play a pivotal role in the salinity regime, adding salt to the underlying water during ice formation and releasing fresh water during ice thaw. Our understanding of physical–chemical–biological interactions within this complex system is rapidly advancing. However, much of the estuarine research to date has focused on summer, open water conditions. Furthermore, our current conceptual model for Arctic estuaries is primarily based on studies of a few major river inflows. Future advancement of estuarine research in the Arctic requires concerted seasonal coverage as well as a commitment to working within a broader range of systems. With clear signals of climate change occurring in the Arctic and greater changes anticipated in the future, there is good reason to accelerate estuarine research efforts in the region. In particular, elucidating estuarine dynamics across the near-shore to ocean-wide domains is vital for understanding potential climate impacts on local ecosystems as well as broader climate feedbacks associated with storage and release of fresh water and carbon.     

Climate-change impacts on sagebrush habitat and West Nile virus transmission risk and conservation implications for greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) are threatened by loss of sagebrush habitat and the spread of West Nile virus throughout much of their range in North America; yet, future impacts of climate change on these potential stressors have not been addressed. Here, we aim to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of climatically suitable habitat for sagebrush and on transmission risk for West Nile virus in the eastern portion of the species’ range. We used Maxent to model the current and future climatically suitable habitat for two dominant sagebrush species in the study area, and we used a degree-day model to predict future West Nile virus transmission risk under likely climate-change scenarios. Our models suggest that areas with the highest future suitability for sagebrush habitat will be found in southwestern Wyoming and north-central Montana. The degree-day model suggests that greater sage-grouse in western portions of the study area, which are generally higher in elevation than where West Nile virus currently occurs, will see increasing risk of transmission in the future. We developed a spatially explicit map of suggested management actions based on our predictions that will aid in conservation of the species into the coming decades.     

Climate change impacts on water demand and availability using CMIP5 models in the Jaguaribe basin,semi-arid Brazil

The objective of this study was to analyze climate change impacts on irrigation water demand and availability in the Jaguaribe River basin, Brazil. For northeastern Brazil, five global circulation models were selected using a rainfall seasonal evaluation screening technique from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change named Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. The climate variables were generated for the base period of 1971–2000, as were projections for the 2025–2055 future time slice. Removal of maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall output bias was used to estimate reference evapotranspiration, irrigation water needs, and river flow using the rainfall—river flow hydrological model Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure for the baseline and future climate (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). In addition, by applying improved irrigation efficiency, a scenario was evaluated in comparison with field observed performance. The water-deficit index was used as a water availability performance indicator. Future climate projections by all five models resulted in increases in future reference evapotranspiration (2.3–6.3%) and irrigation water needs (2.8–16.7%) for all scenarios. Regarding rainfall projections, both positive (4.8–12.5%) and negative (??2.3 to ??15.2%) signals were observed. Most models and scenarios project that annual river flow will decrease. Lower future water availability was detected by the less positive water-deficit index. Improved irrigation efficiency is a key measure for the adaptation to higher future levels of water demand, as climate change impacts could be compensated by gains in irrigation efficiency (water demand changes varying from ??1.7 to ??35.2%).     

Holocene Foraminifera as Indicators of Relative Estuarine–Lagoonal and Oceanic Influences in Estuarine Sediments of the River Murray, South Australia: Volume 53, Number 3 (2000), pages 378–391

In southeastern South Australia, the River Murray debouches through a coastal barrier separating euryhaline estuarine-lagoonal waters from the Southern Ocean. Depending upon the relative freshwater outflow of the river and ingress of the ocean, water salinity varies greatly within the lower estuary. Ammonia beccarii and Elphidium articulatum are euryhaline species of foraminifera that characterize the estuary and back-barrier Coorong Lagoon. The inner-shelf marine environment hosts an assemblage in which Discorbis dimidiatus, E. crispum, E. macelliforme, and various cibicidid species predominate. In cored sediments recovered from the shallow lower estuary, the relative abundance of A. beccarii + E. articulatum was compared with that of D. dimidiatus + E. crispum + E. macelliforme + other species. These data, and AMS radiocarbon ages determined for foraminifera and ostracods, provide evidence of a change from maximum oceanic influence (5255 ± 60 yr B.P.) to maximum estuarine influence (3605 ± 70 yr B.P.). Over this same time interval, sea level fell relatively by about 2 m. However, the event was also contemporaneous with falling water levels in several Victorian lakes, and it is thus attributed to onset of climatic aridity. Reduced precipitation in the River Murray catchment and reduced freshwater outflow enhanced development of the flood-tide delta and constriction of the mouth.     

Progress and Prospects of Research on Climatic Suitability at Home and Abroad

The research progress of climate suitability at home and abroad was briefly reviewed in this paper, which was divided into three stages: The initial stage of research, the initial development and application stage, and the application research warming stage. The main achievements and progress of climate suitability in China were also introduced from three aspects as follows: Improvement of climate suitability model, extension of climate suitability applications and development of climate suitability model. Based on the impact of climate change on agriculture and the weak links in climate suitability research, the focus and hotspot of future climate suitability research were proposed, which will be five important directions:The climate suitability model proceed from crop growth model, the climate suitability research proceed from characteristic agriculture, the climate suitability research proceed from climate change, the climate suitability model based on different theories and the climate suitability evaluation index research.     

气候适宜度国内外研究进展及展望

简要概述了国外在气候适宜度方面的研究现状,回顾了我国在气候适宜度方面的研究历程,将气候适宜度研究划分为3个阶段:研究的起步阶段、初步发展应用阶段及应用研究升温阶段。从气候适宜度模型的改进、气候适宜度应用的延伸及气候适宜度模型的发展3个方面介绍了我国在气候适宜度方面的主要成果和进展;从气候变化对农业的影响角度及气候适宜度研究存在的薄弱环节等方面,提出立足作物生长模型的气候适宜度模型研究、立足特色农业的气候适宜度研究、立足气候变化的气候适宜度研究、立足不同理论的气候适宜度模型研究和气候适宜度评价指标研究等方面将是未来气候适宜度研究的重点和热点。     

Reactive Transport Modeling of Subaqueous Sediment Caps and Implications for the Long-Term Fate of Arsenic, Mercury, and Methylmercury

A 1-D biogeochemical reactive transport model with a full set of equilibrium and kinetic biogeochemical reactions was developed to simulate the fate and transport of arsenic and mercury in subaqueous sediment caps. Model simulations (50?years) were performed for freshwater and estuarine scenarios with an anaerobic porewater and either a diffusion-only or a diffusion plus 0.1-m/year upward advective flux through the cap. A biological habitat layer in the top 0.15?m of the cap was simulated with the addition of organic carbon. For arsenic, the generation of sulfate-reducing conditions limits the formation of iron oxide phases available for adsorption. As a result, subaqueous sediment caps may be relatively ineffective for mitigating contaminant arsenic migration when influent concentrations are high and sorption capacity is insufficient. For mercury, sulfate reduction promotes the precipitation of metacinnabar (HgS) below the habitat layer, and associated fluxes across the sediment–water interface are low. As such, cap thickness is a key design parameter that can be adjusted to control the depth below the sediment–water interface at which mercury sulfide precipitates. The highest dissolved methylmercury concentrations occur in the habitat layer in estuarine environments under conditions of advecting porewater, but the highest sediment concentrations are predicted to occur in freshwater environments due to sorption on sediment organic matter. Site-specific reactive transport simulations are a powerful tool for identifying the major controls on sediment- and porewater-contaminant arsenic and mercury concentrations that result from coupling between physical conditions and biologically mediated chemical reactions.     

气候变化对新疆玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响

考虑积雪和降水不均等特点,对流域进行分带处理,提出和建立了包含积雪融雪结构的水文评价模型。利用该模型求得未来不同气候变化情况下的月均流量过程,分析气候变化对玛纳斯河流域水文水资源的影响。结果表明:若气温升高2℃,降水减少20%,则夏季径流减少52.59%,冬季径流减少1.77%,年均径流减少46.87%。     

Suspended-Sediment Flux and Retention in a Backwater Tidal Slough Complex near the Landward Boundary of an Estuary

Backwater tidal sloughs are commonly found at the landward boundary of estuaries. The Cache Slough complex is a backwater tidal region within the Upper Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta that includes two features that are relevant for resource managers: (1) relatively high abundance of the endangered fish, delta smelt (Hypomesus transpacificus), which prefers turbid water and (2) a recently flooded shallow island, Liberty Island, that is a prototype for habitat restoration. We characterized the turbidity around Liberty Island by measuring suspended-sediment flux at four locations from July 2008 through December 2010. An estuarine turbidity maximum in the backwater Cache Slough complex is created by tidal asymmetry, a limited tidal excursion, and wind-wave resuspension. During the study, there was a net export of sediment, though sediment accumulates within the region from landward tidal transport during the dry season. Sediment is continually resuspended by both wind waves and flood tide currents. The suspended-sediment mass oscillates within the region until winter freshwater flow pulses flush it seaward. The hydrodynamic characteristics within the backwater region such as low freshwater flow during the dry season, flood tide dominance, and a limited tidal excursion favor sediment retention.     

Assessing the impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow,water quality and suspended sediment in the Kor River Basin,Southwest of Iran

This research addressed the separate and combined impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow, suspended sediment and water quality in the Kor River Basin, Southwest of Iran, using (BASINS–WinHSPF) model. The model was calibrated and validated for hydrology, sediment and water quality for the period 2003–2012. The model was run under two climate changes, two land use changes and four combined change scenarios for near-future period (2020–2049). The results revealed that projected climate change impacts include an increase in streamflow (maximum increases of 52% under RCP 2.6 in December and 170% under RCP 8.5). Projected sediment concentrations under climate change scenarios showed a monthly average decrease of 10%. For land use change scenarios, agricultural development scenario indicated an opposite direction of changes in orthophosphate (increases in all months with an average increase of 6% under agricultural development scenario), leading to the conclusion that land use change is the dominant factor in nutrient concentration changes. Combined impacts results indicated that streamflows in late fall and winter months increased while in summer and early fall decreased. Suspended sediment and orthophosphate concentrations were decreased in all months except for increases in suspended sediment concentrations in September and October and orthophosphate concentrations in late winter and early spring due to the impact of land use change scenarios.     

Downstream effects of water withdrawal in a small,high-gradient basin: Erosion and deposition on the Skokomish River delta

This paper analyzes downstream effects of freshwater flow diversion from a small, active-continental-margin river basin. The Skokomish River delta, a tributary estuary to Hood Canal in Washington state, receives drainage from the southeastern side of the Olympic Mountains. Its drainage basin is steep, and rainfall is high. Since completion of two dams in 1930, approximately 40% of the annual average runoff of the entire system has been diverted from the North Fork Skokomish River for power production; this water does not pass through the lower river or over the delta. Extensive logging has occurred in the remainder of the basin. Comparison of prediversion (1885) and postdiversion (1941 and 1972) bathymetric surveys suggest that deposition (about 0.013 m yr^?1 to 0.022 m yr^?1) has occurred on most of the inner delta and erosion (up to 0.011 m yr^?1 to 0.033 m yr^?1) on much of the outer delta. More rapid postconstruction deposition occurred within the river mouth itself, where the 1926 to 1941 deposition rate was 0.04–0.11 m yr^?1. Nine of 12 historical bathymetric change cross-sections show steepening of the delta surface, two are neutral, and one shows aggradation. This steepening has apparently been caused by a loss of sediment transport capacity in the lower river and estuary combined with steady or increased (due to logging) sediment supply. Although the total area of unvegetated tidal flats has decreased by only about 2%, there has been a 15–19% loss of highly productive low intertidal surface area and an estimated 17% loss of eelgrass (Zostera marina) habitat. A reduction in the size of mesohaline mixing zone has also occurred. These habitat losses are similar to those observed elsewhere in the world in larger river basins that have suffered water withdrawals of the same magnitude, but their impacts either cannot be evaluated or understood casually through consideration of simple measures like changes in total estuarine deltaic area. Evaluation of estuarine effects of anthropogenic modification must, therefore, include consideration of both changes in habitat function and in the physical processes. These must be evaluated within the totality of the river basin-estuary system that cause these changes. In this case, sediment transport constitutes the critical link between fluvial alterations and the remote downstream, estuarine consequences thereof.     

Spatial and temporal variability and drivers of net ecosystem metabolism in western Gulf of Mexico estuaries

Net ecosystem metabolism (NEM) is becoming a commonly used ecological indicator of estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates. Estuarine ecosystem processes are spatially and temporally variable, but the corresponding variability in NEM has not been properly assessed. Spatial and temporal variability in NEM was assessed in four western Gulf of Mexico shallow water estuaries. NEM was calculated from high-frequency dissolved oxygen measurements. Interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales were assessed for NEM, gross primary production (GPP), and respiration (R) rate variability. Seasonal, monthly, and daily temporal scales in NEM, GPP, and R were also assessed. Environmental conditions were then compared to NEM to determine which factors were correlated with each temporal and spatial scale. There was significant NEM spatial variability on interbay, intrabay, and water column spatial scales. Significant spatial variability was ephemeral, so it was difficult to ascertain which environmental conditions were most influential at each spatial scale. Significant temporal variability in NEM on seasonal, monthly, and daily scales was found and it was correlated to temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow, respectively. NEM correlated strongly with dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity, but the relationships where different in each bay. The dynamics of NEM on daily scales indicate that freshwater inflow events may be the main driver of NEM in the semiarid estuaries studied. The variable nature of NEM found here is further evidence that it is not valid to use single station monitoring deployments for assessment of whole estuarine ecosystem metabolic rates in large ecosystems. The relationship between NEM and temperature, salinity, and freshwater inflow events could drive predictive models assessing the potential influence of projected climate change and watershed development scenarios on estuarine metabolic rates.