Effect of ice sheet growth and melting on the slip evolution of thrust faults

Field investigations suggest that postglacial unloading and rebound led to the formation or re-activation of reverse faults even in continental shields like Scandinavia. Here we use finite-element models including a thrust fault embedded in a rheologically layered lithosphere to investigate its slip evolution during glacial loading and subsequent postglacial unloading. The model results show that the rate of thrusting decreases during the presence of an ice sheet and strongly increases during deglaciation. The magnitude of the slip acceleration is primarily controlled by the thickness of the ice sheet, the viscosity of the lithospheric layers and the long-term shortening rate. In contrast, the width of the ice sheet, the rate of deglaciation or the fault dip have an only minor influence on the slip evolution. In all experiments, the slip rate variations are caused by changes in the differential stress. The modelled deglaciation-induced slip acceleration agrees well with the occurrence of large earthquakes soon after the melting of the Fennoscandian ice sheet, which led to the formation of spectacular fault scarps in particular in the Lapland Fault Province. Furthermore, our model results support the idea that the low level of seismicity in currently glaciated regions like Greenland and Antarctica is caused by the presence of the ice sheets. Based on our models we expect that the decay of the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets in the course of global warming will ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.     

Response of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets to Multi-Millennial Greenhouse Warming in the Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity LOVECLIM

Calculations were performed with the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to study the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sustained multi-millennial greenhouse warming. Use was made of fully dynamic 3D thermomechanical ice-sheet models bidirectionally coupled to an atmosphere and an ocean model. Two 3,000-year experiments were evaluated following forcing scenarios with atmospheric CO₂ concentration increased to two and four times the pre-industrial value, and held constant thereafter. In the high concentration scenario the model shows a sustained mean annual warming of up to 10°C in both polar regions. This leads to an almost complete disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet after 3,000 years, almost entirely caused by increased surface melting. Significant volume loss of the Antarctic ice sheet takes many centuries to initiate due to the thermal inertia of the Southern Ocean but is equivalent to more than 4 m of global sea-level rise by the end of simulation period. By that time, surface conditions along the East Antarctic ice sheet margin take on characteristics of the present-day Greenland ice sheet. West Antarctic ice shelves have thinned considerably from subshelf melting and grounding lines have retreated over distances of several 100 km, especially for the Ross ice shelf. In the low concentration scenario, corresponding to a local warming of 3?C4°C, polar ice-sheet melting proceeds at a much lower rate. For the first 1,200 years, the Antarctic ice sheet is even slightly larger than today on account of increased accumulation rates but contributes positively to sea-level rise after that. The Greenland ice sheet loses mass at a rate equivalent to 35 cm of global sea level rise during the first 1,000 years increasing to 150 cm during the last 1,000 years. For both scenarios, ice loss from the Antarctic ice sheet is still accelerating after 3,000 years despite a constant greenhouse gas forcing after the first 70?C140 years of the simulation.     

Reconciliation of sea-level observations in the Western North Atlantic during the last glacial cycle

A south to north gradient of increasing marine isotope substage (MIS) 5a (∼80 ka BP) sea level has been recorded across the Caribbean and surrounding region. Relative to present, MIS-5a sea levels range from −19 m to more than +3 m between Barbados, Haiti, the Bahamas, Florida, Bermuda and the US Atlantic Coast. In contrast, no gradient in sea level is observed for the last interglacial period MIS-5e (∼128–118 ka BP) at tectonically stable localities in the same region, with deposits generally lying several metres above present. We demonstrate here that these controversial observations are reconciled by taking into account the isostatic response of the Earth to glacial loading and unloading – a fundamental effect that is commonly overlooked in the interpretation of sea-level observations from different locations to define a ‘global sea-level curve’. Furthermore, the observed gradient can be used to place constraints on Earth rheology and is an important indicator of the behaviour of the North American ice sheets during the last glacial cycle.     

冰盖消融的海平面指纹变化及其对GRACE监测结果的影响

全球变暖背景下的冰盖消融以及由此带来海平面上升日益明显,直接影响地球表面的陆地水质量平衡,以及固体地球瞬间弹性响应,研究冰盖质量变化的海平面指纹能够帮助深入了解未来海平面区域变化的驱动因素.本文基于海平面变化方程并考虑负荷自吸效应（SAL）与地球极移反馈的影响,借助美国德克萨斯大学空间研究中心（Center for Space Research,CSR）发布的2003年到2012年十年期间的GRACE重力场月模型数据（RL05）,结合加权高斯平滑的区域核函数,反演得到格陵兰与南极地区冰盖质量变化的时空分布,并利用海平面变化方程计算得到了相对海平面的空间变化,结果表明：格陵兰与南极冰盖质量整体呈明显的消融趋势,变化速率分别为-273.31 Gt/a及-155.56 Gt/a,由此导致整个北极圈相对海平面降低,最高可达约-0.6 cm·a^-1;而南极地区冰盖质量变化趋势分布不一,导致西南极近海相对海平面下降,而东南极地区近海相对海平面上升,最高可达约0.2 cm·a^-1.远离质量负荷区域的全球海平面以上升趋势为主,平均全球相对海平面上升0.71 mm·a^-1,部分远海地区相对海平面上升更加突出（例如北美与澳大利亚）,高出全球平均海平面上升速率将近30%.此外,本文也重点探讨了GRACE监测冰盖消融结果中由于极地近海海平面变化导致的泄漏影响,经此项影响校正后的结果表明：海平面指纹效应对GRACE监测格陵兰与南极地区2003-2012期间整体冰盖消融速率的贡献分别为约3%与9%,建议在后期利用GRACE更精确地估算研究区冰盖质量变化时,应考虑海平面指纹效应的渗透影响.     

Glacial isostatic adjustment at the Laurentide ice sheet margin: Models and observations in the Great Lakes region

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling in North America relies on relative sea level information which is primarily obtained from areas far away from the uplift region. The lack of accurate geodetic observations in the Great Lakes region, which is located in the transition zone between uplift and subsidence due to the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, has prevented more detailed studies of this former margin of the ice sheet. Recently, observations of vertical crustal motion from improved GPS network solutions and combined tide gauge and satellite altimetry solutions have become available. This study compares these vertical motion observations with predictions obtained from 70 different GIA models. The ice sheet margin is distinct from the centre and far field of the uplift because the sensitivity of the GIA process towards Earth parameters such as mantle viscosity is very different. Specifically, the margin area is most sensitive to the uppermost mantle viscosity and allows for better constraints of this parameter. The 70 GIA models compared herein have different ice loading histories (ICE-3/4/5G) and Earth parameters including lateral heterogeneities. The root-mean-square differences between the 6 best models and the two sets of observations (tide gauge/altimetry and GPS) are 0.66 and 1.57 mm/yr, respectively. Both sets of independent observations are highly correlated and show a very similar fit to the models, which indicates their consistent quality. Therefore, both data sets can be considered as a means for constraining and assessing the quality of GIA models in the Great Lakes region and the former margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.     

Glacial isostatic adjustment at the Laurentide ice sheet margin: Models and observations in the Great Lakes region

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) modelling in North America relies on relative sea level information which is primarily obtained from areas far away from the uplift region. The lack of accurate geodetic observations in the Great Lakes region, which is located in the transition zone between uplift and subsidence due to the deglaciation of the Laurentide ice sheet, has prevented more detailed studies of this former margin of the ice sheet. Recently, observations of vertical crustal motion from improved GPS network solutions and combined tide gauge and satellite altimetry solutions have become available. This study compares these vertical motion observations with predictions obtained from 70 different GIA models. The ice sheet margin is distinct from the centre and far field of the uplift because the sensitivity of the GIA process towards Earth parameters such as mantle viscosity is very different. Specifically, the margin area is most sensitive to the uppermost mantle viscosity and allows for better constraints of this parameter. The 70 GIA models compared herein have different ice loading histories (ICE-3/4/5G) and Earth parameters including lateral heterogeneities. The root-mean-square differences between the 6 best models and the two sets of observations (tide gauge/altimetry and GPS) are 0.66 and 1.57 mm/yr, respectively. Both sets of independent observations are highly correlated and show a very similar fit to the models, which indicates their consistent quality. Therefore, both data sets can be considered as a means for constraining and assessing the quality of GIA models in the Great Lakes region and the former margin of the Laurentide ice sheet.     

Understanding and Modelling Rapid Dynamic Changes of Tidewater Outlet Glaciers: Issues and Implications

Recent dramatic acceleration, thinning and retreat of tidewater outlet glaciers in Greenland raises concern regarding their contribution to future sea-level rise. These dynamic changes seem to be parallel to oceanic and climatic warming but the linking mechanisms and forcings are poorly understood and, furthermore, large-scale ice sheet models are currently unable to realistically simulate such changes which provides a major limitation in our ability to predict dynamic mass losses. In this paper we apply a specifically designed numerical flowband model to Jakobshavn Isbrae (JIB), a major marine outlet glacier of the Greenland ice sheet, and we explore and discuss the basic concepts and emerging issues in our understanding and modelling ability of the dynamics of tidewater outlet glaciers. The modelling demonstrates that enhanced ocean melt is able to trigger the observed dynamic changes of JIB but it heavily relies on the feedback between calving and terminus retreat and therefore the loss of buttressing. Through the same feedback, other forcings such as reduced winter sea-ice duration can produce similar rapid retreat. This highlights the need for a robust representation of the calving process and for improvements in the understanding and implementation of forcings at the marine boundary in predictive ice sheet models. Furthermore, the modelling uncovers high sensitivity and rapid adjustment of marine outlet glaciers to perturbations at their marine boundary implying that care should be taken in interpreting or extrapolating such rapid dynamic changes as recently observed in Greenland.     

Recent advances in understanding ice sheet dynamics

Glaciers and ice sheets play a dynamic role in Earth's climate system, influencing regional- and global-scale climate and responding to climate change on time scales from years to millennia. They are also an integral part of Earth's landscape in alpine and polar regions, where they are an active agent in isostatic, tectonic, and Earth surface processes. This review paper summarizes recent progress in understanding and modelling ice sheet dynamics, from the microphysical processes of ice deformation in glaciers to continental-scale processes that influence ice dynamics. Based on recent insights and research directions, it can be expected that a new generation of ice sheet models will soon replace the current standard. Improvements that can be foreseen in the near future include: (i) the addition of internally-consistent evolutionary equations for ice crystal fabric (anisotropic flow laws), (ii) more generalized flow laws that include different deformation mechanisms under different stress regimes, (iii) explicit incorporation of the effects of chemical impurities and grain size (dynamic recrystallization) on ice deformation, (iv) higher-order stress solutions to the momentum balance (Stokes' equation) that governs ice sheet flow, and (v) the continued merger of ice sheet models with increasingly complex Earth systems models, which include fully-coupled subglacial hydrological and geological processes. Examples from the Greenland Ice Sheet and Vatnajökull Ice Cap, Iceland are used to illustrate several of these new directions and their importance to glacier dynamics.     

20th Century sea-level change along the eastern US: Unravelling the contributions from steric changes, Greenland ice sheet mass balance and Late Pleistocene glacial loading

We have considered the influence of ocean temperature and salinity changes, mass changes of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the isostatic response of the solid earth to the most recent glacial cycle on 20th century sea-level change along the US east coast with the intention of better understanding the observed signal as well as determining the potential of the tide gauge data for constraining the recent (past 50–100 yr) mass balance of the GIS and earth viscosity structure. Our results show that the signal due to steric changes is large and displays a complex spatial variation which can account for a significant portion of the observed signal. In contrast, that due to changes in the GIS is relatively small and insensitive to the specific geometry of the mass balance model adopted. As a consequence, the tide gauge data alone are not capable of providing useful constraints on either the magnitude or form of recent GIS mass balance. Our inference of mantle viscosity structure based on the tide gauge data was affected dramatically when the steric effect was accounted for: An earth model with an upper mantle viscosity of 8 × 10¹⁹ Pa s and a lower mantle viscosity of 5 × 10²² Pa s produced the best fit to the steric-corrected data; the optimal fit to the uncorrected data was obtained for upper and lower mantle viscosities of 5 × 10²⁰ Pa s and 10²² Pa s, respectively.     

Representing Grounding Line Dynamics in Numerical Ice Sheet Models: Recent Advances and Outlook

Recent satellite observations of the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets show accelerated ice flow and associated ice sheet thinning along coastal outlet glaciers in contact with the ocean. Both processes are the result of grounding line retreat due to melting at the grounding line (the grounding line is the contact of the ice sheet with the ocean, where it starts to float and forms an ice shelf or ice tongue). Such rapid ice loss is not yet included in large-scale ice sheet models used for IPCC projections, as most of the complex processes are poorly understood. Here we report on the state-of-the art of grounding line migration in marine ice sheets and address different ways in which grounding line migration can be attributed and represented in ice sheet models. Using one-dimensional ice flow models of the ice sheet/ice shelf system we carried out a number of sensitivity experiments with different spatial resolutions and stress approximations. These are verified with semi-analytical steady state solutions. Results show that, in large-scale finite-difference models, grounding line migration is dependent on the numerical treatment (e.g. staggered/non-staggered grid) and the level of physics involved (e.g. shallow-ice/shallow-shelf approximation).     

The Deformational Response of a Viscoelastic Solid Earth Model Coupled to a Thermomechanical Ice Sheet Model

We apply a coupled thermomechanical ice sheet—self-gravitating viscoelastic solid Earth model (SGVEM), allowing for the dynamic exchange of ice thickness and bedrock deformation, in order to investigate the effect of viscoelastic deformation on ice dynamics and vice versa. In a synthetic glaciation scenario, we investigate the interaction between the ice sheet and the solid Earth deformation, the glacial-isostatic adjustment (GIA), accounting for an atmospheric forcing depending on the ice sheet surface altitude. We compare the results from the coupled model to runs with the common elastic lithosphere/relaxing asthenosphere (ELRA) model, where the lithosphere is represented by a thin plate and the mantle relaxes with one characteristic relaxation time, as well as to a rigid Earth without any deformation. We find that the deformational behaviour of the SGVEM on ice dynamics (i.e. stored ice volume, ice thickness and velocity field) is comparable to the ELRA for an optimal choice of the parameters in steady state, but exhibits differences in the transient behaviour. Beyond the ice sheet, in the region of peripheral forebulge, the differences in the transient surface deformation between ELRA and SGVEM are substantial, demonstrating the inadequacy of the ELRA model for interpreting constraints on GIA in the periphery of the ice sheet, such as sea-level indicators and GPS uplift rates.     

基于GRACE/GRACE-FO和Swarm卫星研究2002-2020年南极和格陵兰岛冰盖质量时空变化

两极冰盖消融及其质量变化作为全球气候变化的重要指标之一,一直是联合国政府间专门气候委员会IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)报告的重点关注内容.GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment,2002年4月-2017年...     

Present State and Prospects of Ice Sheet and Glacier Modelling

Since the late 1970s, numerical modelling has become established as an important technique for the understanding of ice sheet and glacier dynamics, and several models have been developed over the years. Ice sheet models are particularly relevant for predicting the possible response of ice sheets to climate change. Recent observations suggest that ice dynamics could play a crucial role for the contribution of ice sheets to future sea level rise under global warming conditions, and the need for further research into the matter was explicitly stated in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In this paper, we review the state of the art and current problems of ice sheet and glacier modelling. An outline of the underlying theory is given, and crucial processes (basal sliding, calving, interaction with the solid Earth) are discussed. We summarise recent progress in the development of ice sheet and glacier system models and their coupling to climate models, and point out directions for future work.     

Measured and modelled absolute gravity changes in Greenland

In glaciated areas, the Earth is responding to the ongoing changes of the ice sheets, a response known as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). GIA can be investigated through observations of gravity change. For the ongoing assessment of the ice sheets mass balance, where satellite data are used, the study of GIA is important since it acts as an error source. GIA consists of three signals as seen by a gravimeter on the surface of the Earth. These signals are investigated in this study. The ICE-5G ice history and recently developed ice models of present day changes are used to model the gravity change in Greenland. The result is compared with the initial measurements of absolute gravity (AG) change at selected Greenland Network (GNET) sites.We find that observations are highly influenced by the direct attraction from the ice and ocean. This is especially evident in the measurements conducted at the GNET station near the Helheim Glacier. The effect of the direct attraction diminishes at sites that are more than one degree from the source. Here, the dominant signal is the effect of the elastic signal from present day ice mass changes. We find agreement between the measured and modelled gravity changes at all but one site. This agreement only holds when the direct attraction is considered. For one site, there is no agreement, indicating that some improvements to the modelling results or the processing of the gravity data are needed. In addition, more AG measurements are needed to strengthen the time series of gravity change.     

A high-resolution climatic change since the Late Glacial Age inferred from multi-proxy of sediments in Qinghai Lake

The study of climatic changes since the Late Glacial Age has become one of the hotspots of the PAGES in recent years.Deep-sea cores from the high-latitude area show that the climate was very unstable during the transitional period from the Late Glacial Age to the Holocene[1,2],which has also been testified by the geological records from ocean sediments,ice cores and terrestrial sections in different latitudes of the earth[3—8].What’s more,climatic instability also ex-isted in the Holoce…     

Postglacial isostatic adjustment in a self-gravitating spherical earth with power-law rheology

Since microphysics cannot say definitively whether the rheology of the mantle is linear or non-linear, the aim of this paper is to constrain mantle rheology from observations related to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process—namely relative sea-levels (RSLs), land uplift rate from GPS and gravity-rate-of-change from GRACE. We consider three earth model types that can have power-law rheology (n = 3 or 4) in the upper mantle, the lower mantle or throughout the mantle. For each model type, a range of A parameter in the creep law will be explored and the predicted GIA responses will be compared to the observations to see which value of A has the potential to explain all the data simultaneously. The coupled Laplace finite-element (CLFE) method is used to calculate the response of a 3D spherical self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth to forcing by the ICE-4G ice history model with ocean loads in self-gravitating oceans. Results show that ice thickness in Laurentide needs to increase significantly or delayed by 2 ka, otherwise the predicted uplift rate, gravity rate-of-change and the amplitude of the RSL for sites inside the ice margin of Laurentide are too low to be able to explain the observations. However, the ice thickness elsewhere outside Laurentide needs to be slightly modified in order to explain the global RSL data outside Laurentide. If the ice model is modified in this way, then the results of this paper indicate that models with power-law rheology in the lower mantle (with A  10⁻³⁵ Pa⁻³ s⁻¹ for n = 3) have the highest potential to simultaneously explain all the observed RSL, uplift rate and gravity rate-of-change data than the other model types.     

Seabed erosion and deposition related to the typhoon activity of the past millennium on the southeast coast of China

Catastrophic events often interrupt long-term Earth surface processes. In coastal areas, although millennial-scale trends of climatic and sea-level changes determine the trajectory of sedimentary landform evolution, storm and/or tsunami activity can cause abrupt changes in depositional conditions that may alter the long-term sedimentary processes. Here, we report a sedimentary hiatus that is widely observed from the late Holocene sedimentary sequence at the seabed along the southeast China coast. This hiatus was discovered by close temporal sedimentary and radiocarbon dating analyses of a seabed sedimentary sequence in the mouth area of the Pearl River estuary. The results suggest that a couple of metres in the middle to late Holocene sediment at the seabed were eroded by a catastrophic event happening c. 1000–800 cal. Years BP. In theory, a mega-tsunami generated from the Manila Trench could have caused such erosion at the seabed, but there is a lack of direct geological and historical evidence to support such a hypothesis. Much more likely, a super-typhoon struck the coast and caused the erosion. This hypothesis is strongly supported by the region's historical and geological records, which suggest a period characteristic of intense typhoons ranging from the Medieval Warm Period to the climate transition phase (c. 1000–600 cal. Years BP). During the subsequent Little Ice Age, deposition of sandy sediment continued, suggesting frequent but weaker typhoon activity. Over the past two centuries the deposition of sandy sediment and gravels began, implying the beginning of a phase of intensifying typhoon conditions, possibly a result of the recent warming climate. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A last glacial ice sheet on the Pacific Russian coast and catastrophic change arising from coupled ice–volcanic interaction

Controversy exists over the extent of glaciation in Eastern Asia at the Last Glacial Maximum: complete ice sheet cover vs. restricted mountain icefields (an area discrepancy equivalent to 3.7 Greenland Ice Sheets). Current arguments favour the latter. However, significant last glacial ice-rafted debris (IRD) exists in NW Pacific ocean cores, which must have been sourced from a major ice sheet somewhere bordering the North Pacific. The origin of this IRD is addressed through a combination of marine core analysis, iceberg trajectory modelling and remote sensing of glacial geomorphology. We find compelling evidence for two stages of glaciation centred on the Kamchatka area of maritime southeast Russia during the last glacial, with ice extent intermediate in size between previous maximum and minimum reconstructions. Furthermore, a significant increase in iceberg flux precedes, and accompanies, a substantial marine core ash deposit at around 40 ka BP. We speculate that rapid decay of the first stage of the ice sheet may have triggered substantial volcanic activity.     

利用ICESat数据确定格陵兰冰盖高程和体积变化

两极冰盖消融是造成海平面上升的重要原因,作为世界第二大冰盖,格陵兰冰盖消融速度在进入21世纪以后明显加快,引起了广泛关注.本文利用ICESat卫星激光测高数据,探讨了坡度改正的方法,通过改进平差模型解决了病态问题,并采用重复轨道方法计算了2003年9月至2009年10月间格陵兰冰盖的体积和高程变化趋势,对格陵兰冰盖各冰川流域系统的变化情况进行了详细分析.结果表明,格陵兰冰盖在这6年间平均高程变化趋势为-16.79±0.84cm·a^-1,体积变化速率为-301.37±15.16km^3·a^-1,体积流失主要发生在冰盖边缘,其中DS1、DS8等流域的体积损失正在加剧,而高程在2000m以上的冰盖内陆地区表现出高程积聚的状态,但增长速度明显减缓.与现有研究成果的对比表明,算法优化后的本文结果更具可靠性.     

Postglacial isostatic adjustment in a self-gravitating spherical earth with power-law rheology

Since microphysics cannot say definitively whether the rheology of the mantle is linear or non-linear, the aim of this paper is to constrain mantle rheology from observations related to the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) process—namely relative sea-levels (RSLs), land uplift rate from GPS and gravity-rate-of-change from GRACE. We consider three earth model types that can have power-law rheology (n = 3 or 4) in the upper mantle, the lower mantle or throughout the mantle. For each model type, a range of A parameter in the creep law will be explored and the predicted GIA responses will be compared to the observations to see which value of A has the potential to explain all the data simultaneously. The coupled Laplace finite-element (CLFE) method is used to calculate the response of a 3D spherical self-gravitating viscoelastic Earth to forcing by the ICE-4G ice history model with ocean loads in self-gravitating oceans. Results show that ice thickness in Laurentide needs to increase significantly or delayed by 2 ka, otherwise the predicted uplift rate, gravity rate-of-change and the amplitude of the RSL for sites inside the ice margin of Laurentide are too low to be able to explain the observations. However, the ice thickness elsewhere outside Laurentide needs to be slightly modified in order to explain the global RSL data outside Laurentide. If the ice model is modified in this way, then the results of this paper indicate that models with power-law rheology in the lower mantle (with A ∼ 10⁻³⁵ Pa⁻³ s⁻¹ for n = 3) have the highest potential to simultaneously explain all the observed RSL, uplift rate and gravity rate-of-change data than the other model types.