Forecasting volcanic eruptions from seismic data

An increase in cumulative seismic strain release from volcanic earthquakes prior to eruptions of Bezymyanniy Volcano in 1955–1961 and Sheveluch Volcano in 1964 in Kamchatka, and of Tokachi-dake Volcano on Hokkaido Island in 1962 occurred in accordance with a hyperbolic law. The relationship obtained may be universal for andesite volcanoes. Knowing the law of the increase of cumulative seismic strain and carrying out continueus observations of the seismic regime of andesite voleanoes makes it possible to prediet time and energy of eruptions. By observation of volcanic earthquakes it is also possible to predict the place and time of the occurrence of lateral craters.     

Incorporating the eruptive history in a stochastic model for volcanic eruptions

We show how a stochastic version of a general load-and-discharge model for volcanic eruptions can be implemented. The model tracks the history of the volcano through a quantity proportional to stored magma volume. Thus large eruptions can influence the activity rate for a considerable time following, rather than only the next repose as in the time-predictable model. The model can be fitted to data using point-process methods. Applied to flank eruptions of Mount Etna, it exhibits possible long-term quasi-cyclic behavior, and to Mauna Loa, a long-term decrease in activity. An extension to multiple interacting sources is outlined, which may be different eruption styles or locations, or different volcanoes. This can be used to identify an ‘average interaction’ between the sources. We find significant evidence that summit eruptions of Mount Etna are dependent on preceding flank eruptions, with both flank and summit eruptions being triggered by the other type. Fitted to Mauna Loa and Kilauea, the model had a marginally significant relationship between eruptions of Mauna Loa and Kilauea, consistent with the invasion of the latter's plumbing system by magma from the former.     

Medical effects of volcanic eruptions

Excluding famine and tsunamis, most deaths in volcanic eruptions have been from pyroclastic flows and surges (nuées ardentes) and wet debris flows (lahars). Information on the causes of death and injury in eruptions is sparse but the available literature is summarised for the benefit of volcanologists and emergency planners. In nuées, thermal injury may be at least as important as asphyxia in causing immediate deaths. The high temperature of the gases and entrained particles readily causes severe burns to the skin and the air passages and the presence of both types of injury in an individual may combine to increase the delayed mortality risk from respiratory complications or from infection of burns. Trauma from missiles or body displacement is also common, but the role of asphyxiant or irritant gases, and steam, remains unclear. The ratio of dead: injured is much higher than in other natural disasters. At the periphery of a nuée being protected inside buildings which remain intact appears to greatly increase the chances of survival. In lahars, infected wounds and crush injury are the main delayed causes of death, and the scope for preventive measures, other than evacuation, is small. The evidence from Mount St. Helens, 1980, and other major eruptions indicates that, although mortality is high within the main zone of devastation and in the open, emergency planning should concentrate on the periphery of a nuée where preventive measures are feasible and could save many lives in densely populated areas.     

Victims from volcanic eruptions: a revised database

 The number of victims from volcanism and the primary cause(s) of death reported in the literature show considerable uncertainty. We present the results of investigations carried out either in contemporary accounts or in specific studies of eruptions that occurred since A.D. 1783. More than 220 000 people died because of volcanic activity during this period, which includes approximately 90% of the recorded deaths throughout history. Most of the fatalities resulted from post-eruption famine and epidemic disease (30.3%), nuées ardentes or pyroclastic flows and surges (26.8%), mudflows or lahars (17.1%), and volcanogenic tsunamis (16.9%). At present, however, international relief efforts might reduce the effects of post-eruption crop failure and disease, and at least some of the lahars could be anticipated in time by adequate scientific and social response. Thus, mitigation of hazards from pyroclastic flows and tsunamis will become of paramount importance to volcanologists and civil authorities. Received: 3 August 1997 / Accepted: 10 April 1998     

Long-term forecasting of large volcanic eruptions

It is shown that the subareal volcanic system of the Earth evolves like individual volcanoes, preserving a constant average power. A simple model that allows the forecasting of extreme eruptions is proposed and discussed.     

Energetics of gas-driven limnic and volcanic eruptions

This paper lays the foundation for the rigorous treatment of the energetics of gas exsolution from a gas-containing liquid, which powers gas-driven volcanic and limnic eruptions. Various exsolution processes (reversible or irreversible, slow or rapid) are discussed, and the maximum amount of kinetic energy derivable from a reversible gas exsolution process is obtained. The concept of dynamic irreversibility is proposed for discussing the kinetic energy available from irreversible gas exsolution processes. The changes of thermodynamic properties during gas exsolution processes are derived. Density–pressure relations for gas–liquid mixtures are presented, including empirical relations for irreversible gas exsolution. The energetics of gas-driven eruptions through both fluid and rigid media, including the role of buoyancy and the role of magma chamber expansion work, are investigated. For reversible processes, the energetics can be used to discuss the dynamics of gas-driven eruptions, leading to maximum erupting velocities and maximum eruptible fractions. For irreversible processes, empirical relations and parameters must be employed. The exit velocities of the Lake Nyos eruption and the 18 May 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens are modeled by incorporating possible irreversibility.     

Forecast of volcanic eruptions by chemical methods

From the magmatic emanations differentiation point of view it is possible to calculate some ratios such as F/CO₂, Cl/CO₂, SO₂/CO₂, SO₂/H₂S, H₂S/CO₂ and CO₂/N₂ in the tumarolic gases for the forecasting of volcanic activity. In order to predict the cruptions of a volcano it is needed to select several fumaroles or hot springs having different regimes of variation of the above ratios. The study of some fumaroles composition at the Asama. Mihara, Kirishima and other volcanoes in Japan showed a close connection between volcanic gas compositions and state of the volcanoes.     

Fragmentation of magma during Plinian volcanic eruptions

 The ratio of the volume of vesicles (gas) to that of glass (liquid) in pumice clasts (V _G /V _L ) reflects the degassing and dynamic history experienced by a magma during an explosive eruption. V _G /V _L in pumices from a large number of Plinian eruption deposits is shown here to vary by two orders of magnitude, even between pumices at a given level in a deposit. These variations in V _G /V _L do not correlate with crystallinity or initial water content of the magmas or their eruptive intensities, despite large ranges in these variables. Gas volume ratios of pumices do, however, vary systematically with magma viscosity estimated at the point of fragmentation, and we infer that pumices do not quench at the level of fragmentation but undergo some post-fragmentary evolution. On the timescale of Plinian eruptions, pumices with viscosities <10⁹ Pa s can expand after fragmentation, as long as their bubbles retain gas, at a rate inversely proportional to their viscosity. Once the bubbles connect to form a permeable network and lose their gas, expansion halts and pumices with viscosities <10⁵ Pa s can collapse under the action of surface tension. Textural evidence from bubble sizes and shapes in pumices indicates that both expansion and collapse have taken place. The magnitudes of expansion and collapse, therefore, depend critically on the timing of bubble connectivity relative to the final moment of quenching. We propose that bubbles in different pumices become connected at different times throughout the time span between fragmentation and quenching. After accounting for these effects, we derive new information on the fragmentation process from two characteristics of pumices. The most important is a relatively constant minimum value of V _G /V _L of ∼1.78 (64 vol.% vesicularity) in all samples with viscosities >10⁵ Pa s. This value is independent of magma composition and thus reflects a property of the eruptive mechanism. The other characteristic is that highly expanded pumices (>85 vol.% vesicularities) are common, which argues against overpressure in bubbles as a mechanism for fragmenting magma. We suggest that magma fragments when it reaches a vesicularity of ∼64 vol.%, but only if sheared sufficiently strongly. The intensity of shear varies as a function of velocity in the conduit, which is related to overpressure in the chamber, so that changes in overpressure with time are important in controlling the common progression from explosive to effusive activity at volcanoes. Received: 19 April 1995 / Accepted: 3 April 1996     

Annual report of the world volcanic eruptions in 1992

Annual report of the world volcanic eruptions in 1992     

Sulphur emissions to the stratosphere from explosive volcanic eruptions

 Two methods were used to quantify the flux of volcanic sulphur (as the equivalent mass of SO₂) to the stratosphere over different timescales during the Holocene. A combination of satellite-based measurements of sulphur yields from recent explosive volcanic eruptions with an appropriate rate of explosive volcanism for the past 200 years constrains the medium-term (∼10²years) flux of volcanic sulphur to the stratosphere to be ∼1 Mt a^–1, with lower and upper bounds of 0.3 and 3 Mt a^–1. The short-term (∼10- to 20-year) flux due to small magnitude (10¹⁰–10¹²kg) eruptions is of the order of 0.4 Mt a^–1. At any time the instantaneous levels of sulphur in the stratosphere are dominated by the most recent (0–3 years) volcanic events. The flux calculations do not attempt to address this very short timescale variability. Although there are significant errors associated with the raw sulphur emission data on which this analysis is based, the approach presented is general and may be readily modified as the quantity and quality of the data improve. Data from a Greenland ice core support these conclusions. Integration of the sulphate signals from presumed volcanic sources recorded in the GISP2 core provides a minimum estimate of the 10³–year volcanic SO₂ flux to the stratosphere of 0.5–1 Mt a^–1 over the past 9000 years. The short-term flux calculations do not account for the impact of rare, large events. The ice-core record does not fully account for the contribution from small, frequent events. Received: 27 September 1995 / Accepted: 13 December 1995     

The evolution of bubble size distributions in volcanic eruptions

We review observations of bubble size distributions (BSDs) generated during explosive volcanic eruptions and laboratory explosions, as inferred from vesicle size distributions found in the end products. Unimodal, polymodal, exponential and power law BSDs are common, even in the absence of coalescence, and both power law and exponential distributions have been generated in the same eruption. To date theoretical models have proposed incompatible mechanisms for producing the various distributions. We here present a unifying mechanism. Data from our laboratory analogue experiments suggest that power law distributions are associated with highly non-equilibrium degassing. A numerical model is developed in which bubbles nucleate repeatedly and grow in the spaces between those of previous generations, where, in a non-equilibrium degassing scenario, the volatile concentration remains high. This process causes the BSD to evolve from unimodal, through exponential, into a power law. The exponent of the power law is a measure of the number of nucleation events, or the duration of the nucleation period compared with the timescale of bubble growth. The mathematical inevitability of the evolution from unimodal (Poissonian) to power law is discussed. The findings may resolve the apparent contradiction between the equilibrium degassing conduit flow models and the non-equilibrium degassing conditions derived from bubble growth models of explosive volcanic eruptions. The process of ongoing nucleation is the mechanism whereby the volcanic system maintains near-equilibrium in the case of rapid depressurisation and slow volatile diffusion.     

Magma supply,magma ascent and the style of volcanic eruptions

We propose a new way of looking at the sequence of events leading to different styles of silicic, volcanic eruptions. Small-to-medium sized eruptions, either explosive or effusive, are explained by the ascent of isolated magma batches from mid-crustal magma chambers. We separate magma ascent into four different zones: the Supply System, the Intermediate Storage System, the Transport System and the Eruptive System. Of primary importance is the concept that ascent from the Intermediate Storage System through the Transport System to the Eruptive System first requires the development of a fracture network. Initially, this fracture network allows the ascent of individual magma batches by opening and then closing after their passage. An increase in the complexity of the fracture network with time increases the connectivity of the fractures and hence the ease of upward magma movement. In this model, the dynamics of the ensuing eruptions are controlled entirely by the time spent in the Transport System. Large explosive eruptions require a full interconnectivity of the Transport System from the Intermediate Storage System to the Eruptive System. Moreover, we suggest that a fully connected conduit is rare, develops only under particular conditions, and typically generates catastrophic eruptions during formation. Here we examine two case histories that illustrate the interplay of these processes: Mt St. Helens, USA, between 1980 and 2004, and Mt. Pinatubo, Philippines, in 1991.     

K-Ar chronology of the volcanic eruptions in the Canarian archipelago: Island of La Gomera

A geochronological study of the Island of La Gomera (Canaries) has been carried out by the K-Ar method. The 26 new ages obtained, together with the 17 previous determinations, show that above the main unconformity of the island, separating the « basal complex » from the later volcanic series, there is a unit of « lower old basalts » more than 10 m.y. old. Polymictic volcanic breccias were emplaced between 10 and 9 m.y. ago. The « upper old basalts » above them were formed between 9 and 6 m.y. ago, with a peak of activity around 7 m.y. After a period of erosion (6-5 m.y.), a thick series of « young basalts » associated with trachytic and phonolitic domes and flows, were rapidly emplaced between 4.5-4 m.y. ago. Finally, local basaltic activity took place 2.8 m.y. ago. The age of the basal complex is not well known, although three ages (14.6, 15.5 and 19.3 m.y.) have been obtained for some alkaline intrusives which seem to represent the youngest events in the complex.Research funded under Project n. 1771. CAYCIT. Spain.     

BET_VH: a probabilistic tool for long-term volcanic hazard assessment

In this paper, we illustrate a Bayesian Event Tree to estimate Volcanic Hazard (BET_VH). The procedure enables us to calculate the probability of any kind of long-term hazardous event for which we are interested, accounting for the intrinsic stochastic nature of volcanic eruptions and our limited knowledge regarding related processes. For the input, the code incorporates results from numerical models simulating the impact of hazardous volcanic phenomena on an area and data from the eruptive history. For the output, the code provides a wide and exhaustive set of spatiotemporal probabilities of different events; these probabilities are estimated by means of a Bayesian approach that allows all uncertainties to be properly accounted for. The code is able to deal with many eruptive settings simultaneously, weighting each with its own probability of occurrence. In a companion paper, we give a detailed example of application of this tool to the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to estimate the hazard from tephra fall.