Simulation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Characteristics during Indian Summer Monsoon using Observations from Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment at Jodhpur, India

The diurnal structure of the boundary layer during Indian summer monsoon period is studied using a one-dimensional meteorological boundary layer model and the observations collected from the Monsoon Trough Boundary Layer Experiment conducted in 1990 at Jodhpur, India. The model was initialized with the observed temperature profiles at 0530 LST on 17 July, 1990 at Jodhpur and was run for 26 hours. The study is carried out with a geostrophic wind speed of 9.5 m s⁻¹ corresponding to the strong wind simulation. The mean thermodynamic and wind structure simulated by the model are in good agreement with those observed from 30 m tower. The computed surface layer characteristics such as the surface fluxes, TKE and standard deviations of velocity components are found to be reasonably in good agreement with those based on turbulence measurements. The shear and buoyancy budget computed from the model are also compared with the turbulence measurements. The integrated cooling budget in the nocturnal boundary layer is examined.     

Evolutionary Features of Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) over the Arabian Sea and the Onset of Monsoon over Kerala during ARMEX-2003

In this study an attempt has been made to examine the evolutionary features of the dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of the marine atmosphere over the South-East Arabian Sea near 9.22°N, 74.51°E just two to three days prior to the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during 2003 and seek the linkages with the large-scale flow in the lower and middle troposphere at that time over the region. The marine meteorological data collected onboard ORV Sagarkanya as part of the experiment ARMEX-2003 for 4–8 June, 2003 are used. The monsoon onset over Kerala occurred on 8 June, 2003. The observed changes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) characteristics just two days prior to the onset are discussed. It is observed that the MABL increased in height up to 4 km on 6 June from an initial height 2.8 km on 5 June. The top of the MABL dried up (Relative Humidity RH ~ 30–40%) with weak and variable winds throughout the day on 6 June while the air at 850 hPa is relatively humid (RH ~ 50–80%) but not saturated. A sequential increase in RH is associated with a change in the winds from southwesterly to westerly from 6 June onwards until the onset date. The changes in the lower and middle troposphere flow patterns over the Arabian Sea and Indian region are highlighted.     

Planetary Boundary Layer Flows in the Atmosphere and the Ocean at the Equator

—The boundary layer flows created by the frictional dissipation of the wind speed at the surface in the atmosphere and by surface wind stress in the ocean at the equator and in the equatorial region, are obtained by taking the influence of the surface friction on the zonal velocity as being balanced by vertical transport for the long-term mean flow and by a corresponding time variation for time-dependent flow fields. Solutions are expressed in terms of the velocities in zonal and vertical directions and the divergence of the horizontal current in the two media. It is found that under the ever present easterly flow in the lower atmosphere, the boundary layer flow in the atmosphere is convergence and ascending motion in the lower troposphere, and divergence at the surface and uplift in ocean, and in reverse directions for the westerly flow. Similar results are obtained for time-dependent wind fields and they give way to the steady asymptotic solutions when the period of the variation exceeds 10 months.     

Observation of Double-mixing Line Structure in the Convective Boundary Layer During the Summer Monsoon Season

v--vThe special aerological observations carried out as a part of Land Surface Processes Experiment (LASPEX) were used to investigate the thermodynamic structure of the convective boundary layer during the summer monsoon of 1997. The analysis suggested that the convective boundary layer top was found at 700 hPa which was associated with Š_e minimum and Š_es maximum values. Double-mixing line structure was noticed in the conserved variable diagrams which was possibly attributed to the radiative warming/evaporation of falling precipitation.     

Variability of Convective Activity over the North Indian Ocean and its Associations with Monsoon Rainfall over India

The present study is an attempt to examine the variability of convective activity over the north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) on interannual and longer time scale and its association with the rainfall activity over the four different homogeneous regions of India (viz., northeast India, northwest India, central India and south peninsular India) during the monsoon season from June to September (JJAS) for the 26 year period (1979 to 2004). The monthly mean Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) data obtained from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) polar orbiting spacecraft are used in this study and the 26-year period has been divided into two periods of 13 years each with period-i from 1979 to 1991 and period -ii from 1992 to 2004. It is ascertained that the convective activity increases over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in the recent period (period -ii; 1992 to 2004) compared to that of the former period (period -i; 1979 to 1991) during JJAS and is associated with a significantly increasing trend (at 95% level) of convective activity over the north Bay of Bengal (NBAY). On a monthly scale, July and August also show increase in convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal during the recent period and this is associated with slight changes in the monsoon activity cycle over India. The increase in convective activity particularly over the Arabian Sea during the recent period of June is basically associated with about three days early onset of the monsoon over Delhi and relatively faster progress of the monsoon northward from the southern tip of India. Over the homogeneous regions of India the correlation coefficient (CC) of OLR anomalies over the south Arabian Sea (SARA) is highly significant with the rainfall over central India, south peninsular India and northwest India, and for the north Arabian Sea (NARA), it is significant with northwest India rainfall and south peninsular rainfall. Similarly, the OLR anomalies over the south Bay of Bengal (SBAY) have significant CC with northwest India and south peninsular rainfall, whereas the most active convective region of the NBAY is not significantly correlated with rainfall over India. It is also found that the region over northeastern parts of India and its surroundings has a negative correlation with the OLR anomalies over the NARA and is associated with an anomalous sinking (rising) motion over the northeastern parts of India during the years of increase (decrease) of convective activity over the NARA.     

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.     

An Objective Approach for Prediction of Daily Summer Monsoon Rainfall over Orissa (India) due to Interaction of Mesoscale and Large-scale Synoptic Systems

Orissa State, a meteorological subdivision of India, lies on the east coast of India close to north Bay of Bengal and to the south of the normal position of the monsoon trough. The monsoon disturbances such as depressions and cyclonic storms mostly develop to the north of 15° N over the Bay of Bengal and move along the monsoon trough. As Orissa lies in the southwest sector of such disturbances, it experiences very heavy rainfall due to the interaction of these systems with mesoscale convection sometimes leading to flood. The orography due to the Eastern Ghat and other hill peaks in Orissa and environs play a significant role in this interaction. The objective of this study is to develop an objective statistical model to predict the occurrence and quantity of precipitation during the next 24 hours over specific locations of Orissa, due to monsoon disturbances over north Bay and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal based on observations to up 0300 UTC of the day. A probability of precipitation (PoP) model has been developed by applying forward stepwise regression with available surface and upper air meteorological parameters observed in and around Orissa in association with monsoon disturbances during the summer monsoon season (June-September). The PoP forecast has been converted into the deterministic occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation forecast using the critical value of PoP. The parameters selected through stepwise regression have been considered to develop quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) model using multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) for categorical prediction of precipitation in different ranges such as 0.1–10, 11–25, 26–50, 51–100 and >100 mm if the occurrence of precipitation is predicted by PoP model. All the above models have been developed based on data of summer monsoon seasons of 1980–1994, and data during 1995–1998 have been used for testing the skill of the models. Considering six representative stations for six homogeneous regions in Orissa, the PoP model performs very well with percentages of correct forecast for occurrence/non-occurrence of precipitation being about 96% and 88%, respectively for developmental and independent data. The skill of the QPF model, though relatively less, is reasonable for lower ranges of precipitation. The skill of the model is limited for higher ranges of precipitation. accepted September 2006     

Numerical Simulation of the Sensitivity of Summer Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over India to Land Surface Processes

—The influence of soil moisture and vegetation variation on simulation of monsoon circulation and rainfall is investigated. For this purpose a simple land surface parameterization scheme is incorporated in a three-dimensional regional high resolution nested grid atmospheric model. Based on the land surface parameterization scheme, latent heat and sensible heat fluxes are explicitly estimated over the entire domain of the model. Two sensitivity studies are conducted; one with bare dry soil conditions (no latent heat flux from land surface) and the other with realistic representation of the land surface parameters such as soil moisture, vegetation cover and landuse patterns in the numerical simulation. The sensitivity of main monsoon features such as Somali jet, monsoon trough and tropical easterly jet to land surface processes are discussed.¶Results suggest the necessity of including a detailed land surface parameterization in the realistic short-range weather numerical predictions. An enhanced short-range prediction of hydrological cycle including precipitation was produced by the model, with land surface processes parameterized. This parameterization appears to simulate all the main circulation features associated with the summer monsoon in a realistic manner.     

季风系统振荡与地震预报

发现了中国不同年份8级大震发生日期之间的倍九天时间间隔，对于陕甘宁地区7级以上大震的类似时间特征也被发现了。这种时间间隔可能是不同年份相同季节具有倍九天时间间隔的季风振荡触发大震形成的。     

The Assimilation of GPS Radio Occultation Data and its Impact on Rainfall Prediction along the West Coast of India during Monsoon 2002

In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-2.0.3.1) model with three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) was utilized to study a heavy rainfall event along the west coast of India with and without the assimilation of GPS occultation refractivity soundings in the monsoon period of 2002. The WRF model is a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research communities. The Global Positioning System (GPS) radio occultation (RO) refractivity data, processed by UCAR, were obtained from the CHAMP and SAC-C missions. This study investigates the impact of thirteen GPS occultation refractivity soundings only, as assimilated into the WRF model with 3DVAR, on the rainfall prediction over the western coastal mountain of India. The model simulation, with the finest resolution of 10 km, was in good agreement with rainfall observations, up to 72-h forecast. There are some subtle but important differences in predicted rainfalls between the control run CN (without the assimilation of refractivity soundings) and G13 (with the assimilation of thirteen GPS RO soundings). In general, the assimilation run G13 gives a better prediction in terms of both rainfall locations and amounts at later times. The moisture increments were analyzed at the initial and forecast times to assess the impact of GPS RO data assimilation. The results indicate that remote soundings in the forcing region could have significant impacts on distant downstream regions. It is anticipated, based on this study, that considerably occultation soundings available from the six-satellite constellation of FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC would have even more significant impacts on weather prediction in this region.     

Sensitivity of Typhoon Vamei (2001) Simulation to Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterization Using PSU/NCAR MM5

This paper investigates the sensitivity of the numerical simulations of a near equatorial Typhoon Vamei (2001) to various planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes in the Pennsylvania State University (PSU)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (MM5). The numerical simulations are conducted on two domains at 45 and 15 km grids nested in a one-way fashion. Four different PBL parameterization schemes including the Blackadar (BLK) scheme, the Burk–Thompson (BURKT) scheme, the NCEP Eta model scheme and the NCEP medium range forecast (MRF) model scheme are investigated. Results indicate that the intensity and propagation track of the simulated near equatorial typhoon system is not very sensitive to the different PBL treatments. The simulated minimum central pressures and the maximum surface wind speeds differ by only 5–6 hPa and 6–8 ms⁻¹, respectively. Larger variations between the simulations occur during the weakening phase of the typhoon system. While all schemes simulated the typhoon with reasonable accuracy, the ETA scheme produces the strongest storm intensity with the largest heat exchanges over the marine environment and the highest warm moisture air content in the PBL around the core of the storm.     

Summertime Characteristics of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Relationships to Ozone Levels over the Eastern United States

— This paper examines the spatial and temporal distributions of the mixing height, ventilation coefficient (defined as the product of mixing height and surface wind speed), and cloud cover over the eastern United States during the summer of 1995, using the high-resolution meteorological data generated by MM5 (Version 1), a mesoscale model widely used in air quality studies. The ability of MM5 to simulate the key temporal and spatial features embedded in the time series of observations of temperature, wind speed, and moisture is assessed using spectral decomposition methods. Also, mixing heights estimated from the MM5 outputs are compared with those derived from observations at a few locations where data with high temporal resolution are available in the Northeast. In addition, the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the evolution of the boundary layer during the morning time are examined. The results indicate that nighttime mixing heights averaged <200?m, rising to 1 km by 10 EST, and to about 2.5?km in the afternoon. Ventilation coefficients followed a similar diurnal pattern, increasing from 500?m²/s at night?to 15,000?m²/s in the afternoon; the increase due to the growing mixing height and increasing surface wind speeds. Spatial variability of these parameters was relatively small (coefficient of variation=0.25) at?night and in the afternoon when conditions were quasi-stationary, but increased (to 0.5) during morning?and evening hours when mixing heights and wind speeds were changing rapidly. Analyses of surface ozone observations from about 400 sites throughout the eastern United States indicate that days with numerous stations reporting surface ozone concentrations in excess of 80 ppb (i.e., “high ozone” days) generally had less daytime cloud cover, lower surface wind speeds, higher mixing heights, and lower ventilation coefficients than did comparable “low ozone” days. Such meteorological features are consistent with a synoptic anticyclone centered over the mid-south region (Kentucky, Tennessee). Low ozone days were characterized by more disturbed weather conditions (low pressure systems, fronts, greater cloud cover, and precipitation events). Ozone observations at two elevated platforms (～400?m agl) in Garner, NC, and Chicago, IL, indicated that ozone concentrations aloft were about 40% larger on “high ozone” days than on “low ozone” days. On average, high levels of ozone persist aloft for about 2 to 3 days. Strong vertical mixing in the daytime can bring this pool of upper-level ozone downward to augment surface ozone production. Since ozone can be transported downwind several hundred kilometers from its source region over this time scale, depending on upper-level winds, effective ozone control strategies must take into consideration spatial scales ranging from local to regional, and time scales of the order of several days.     

Observed and Forecasted Intraseasonal Activity of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall over India During 2010, 2011 and 2012

The monsoon seasons of 2010 and 2011, with almost identical seasonal total rainfall over India from June to September, are associated with slightly different patterns of intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations. Similarly, the year 2012, with relatively less rainfall compared to 2010 and 2011, also witnessed different intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations, leading to drought-like situations over some parts of the country. The present article discusses the forecasting aspect of monsoon activity over India during these 3 years on an extended range time scale (up to 3 weeks) by using the multimodel ensemble (MME), based on operational coupled model outputs from the ECMWF monthly forecasting system and the NCEP’s Climate Forecast System (CFS). The average correlation coefficient (CC) of weekly observed all-India rainfall (AIR) and the corresponding MME forecast AIR is found to be significant, above the 98 % level up to 2 weeks (up to 18 days) with a slight positive CC for the week 3 (days 19–25) forecast. However, like the variation of observed intraseasonal rainfall fluctuations during 2010, 2011 and 2012 monsoon seasons, the MME forecast skills of weekly AIR are also found to be different from one another, with the 2012 monsoon season indicating significant CC (above 99 % level) up to week 2 (12–18 days), and also a comparatively higher CC (0.45) during the week 3 forecast (days 19–25). The average CC between observed and forecasted weekly AIR rainfall over four homogeneous regions of India is found to be the lowest over the southern peninsula of India (SPI), and northeast India (NEI) is found to be significant only for the week 1 (days 5–11) forecast. However, the CC is found to be significant over northwest India (NWI) and central India (CEI), at least above the 90 % level up to 18 days, with NWI having slightly better skill compared to the CEI. For the individual monsoon seasons of 2010, 2011 and 2012, there is some variation in CC and other skill scores over the four homogeneous regions. Thus the slight variations in the characteristics of intraseasonal monsoon rainfall over India is associated with variations in predictive skill of the coupled models and the MME-based predictions of intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations for 2–3 weeks, providing encouraging results. The MME forecast in 2010 is also able to provide useful guidance, well in advance, about an active September associated with a delayed withdrawal of the monsoon and also the heavy rainfall over north Pakistan.     

Toward Improved Solar Irradiance Forecasts: a Simulation of Deep Planetary Boundary Layer with Scattered Clouds Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Accurate forecasts of solar irradiance are required for electric utilities to economically integrate substantial amounts of solar power into their power generation portfolios. A common failing of numerical weather models is the prediction of scattered clouds at the top of deep PBL which are generally difficult to be resolved due to complicated processes in the planetary boundary layer. We improved turbulence parameterization for better predicting solar irradiance during the scattered clouds’ events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Sensitivity tests show that increasing the exchange coefficient leads to enhanced vertical mixing and a deeper mixed layer. At the top of mixed layer, an adiabatically ascending air parcel achieved the water vapor saturation and finally scattered cloud is generated.     

Multiscale analysis of Asian Monsoon over the past 640 ka

The empirical mode decomposition(EMD) method is used to re-analyse the high-resolution and precisely-dated stalagmite record from Chinese caves over the past 640 ka. Results show that(1) the variation in the Asian Monsoon can be completely decomposed into ten quasiperiod oscillations, among which the precession and semiprecession band oscillations are the most prominent periodicities, with contribution rates of 31.1% and 30.7%, respectively;(2) the cross-spectrum analysis of the semiprecession component and bi-hemisphere insolation(BHI) are strongly correlated, indicating an amplified response of precipitation and temperature variability to the interhemispheric insolation in the low-latitude regions, thus further affecting the intensity of the Asian Monsoon;(3) on millennial timescales, obvious oscillations at the 5 ka and 1–2 ka bands roughly correspond to the classical Bond and Dansgaard-Oeschger(DO) cycles. Additionally, a strong correlation is found between the detrended stalagmite δ18 O records and Ca/Sr sequence from the North Atlantic(especially at the 5 ka band). This result means that the 5 ka cycle is characteristic of the glacial-interglacial cycle since the middle and late Pleistocene and may imply that climate change on the millennial timescale is the result of an interaction between global ice volume and insolation.     

Characteristics of the tropopause over India

Summary A statistical study of the reported height variations of the tropopause over Indian latitudes has been taken up in the present investigation. The analysis show two types of tropopause (1) the tropical tropopause, and (2) the extratropical tropopause. The latitudinal movement of the extratropical tropopause and the height variation of tropical tropopause with seasons are examined. The tropical tropopause near equatorial latitudes shows a lowering of the height during monsoon months (summer months) contrary to the normal expected structure. The characteristics of this equatorial tropopause are examined in relation to meteorological parameters of the troposphere and stratosphere.