A comparative study on the landslide susceptibility mapping using logistic regression and statistical index models

The logistic regression and statistical index models are applied and verified for landslide susceptibility mapping in Daguan County, Yunnan Province, China, by means of the geographic information system (GIS). A detailed landslide inventory map was prepared by literatures, aerial photographs, and supported by field works. Fifteen landslide-conditioning factors were considered: slope angle, slope aspect, curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, STI, SPI, and TWI were derived from digital elevation model; NDVI was extracted from Landsat ETM7; rainfall was obtained from local rainfall data; distance to faults, distance to roads, and distance to rivers were created from a 1:25,000 scale topographic map; the lithology was extracted from geological map. Using these factors, the landslide susceptibility maps were prepared by LR and SI models. The accuracy of the results was verified by using existing landslide locations. The statistical index model had a predictive rate of 81.02%, which is more accurate prediction in comparison with logistic regression model (80.29%). The models can be used to land-use planning in the study area.     

Regional bias of landslide data in generating susceptibility maps using logistic regression: Case of Hong Kong Island

On the basis of 1,834 landslide data for Hong Kong Island (HKI), landslide susceptibility maps were generated using logistic regression and GIS. Regional bias of the landslide inventory is examined by dividing the whole HKI into a southern and a northern region, separated by an east-west trending water divide. It was found that the susceptibility map of southern HKI generated by using the southern data differs significantly from that generated by using northern data, and similar conclusion can be drawn for the northern HKI. Therefore, a susceptibility map of HKI was established based on regional data analysis, and it was found to reflect closely the spatial distributions of historical landslides. Elevation appears to be the most dominant factor in controlling landslide occurrence, and this probably reflects that human developments are concentrated at certain elevations on the island. Classification plot, goodness of fit, and occurrence ratio were used to examine the reliability of the proposed susceptibility map. The size of landslide susceptible zones varies depending on the data sets used, thus this demonstrates that the historical landslide data may be biased and affected by human activities and geological settings on a regional basis. Therefore, indiscriminate use of regional-biased data should be avoided.     

Application of logistic regression and fuzzy operators to landslide susceptibility assessment in Azdavay (Kastamonu,Turkey)

Landslides and their assessments are of great importance since they damage properties, infrastructures, environment, lives and so on. Particularly, landslide inventory, susceptibility, and hazard or risk mapping have become important issues in the last few decades. Such maps provide useful information and can be produced by qualitative or quantitative methods. The work presented in this paper aimed to assess landslide susceptibility in a selected area, covering 570.625 km² in the Western Black Sea region of Turkey, by two quantitative methods. For this purpose, in the first stage, a detailed landslide inventory map was prepared by extensive field studies. A total of 96 landslides were mapped during these studies. To perform landslide susceptibility analyses, six input parameters such as topographical elevation, lithology, land use, slope, aspect and distance to streams were considered. Two quantitative methods, logistic regression and fuzzy approach, were used to assess landslide susceptibility in the selected area. For the fuzzy approach, the fuzzy and, or, algebraic product, algebraic sum and gamma operators were considered. At the final stage, 18 landslide susceptibility maps were produced by the logistic regression and fuzzy operators in a GIS (Geographic Information System) environment. Two performance indicators such as ROC (relative operating characteristics) and cosine amplitude method (r _ij ) were used to validate the final susceptibility maps. Based on the analyses, the landslide susceptibility map produced by the fuzzy gamma operator with a level of 0.975 showed the best performance. In addition, the maps produced by the logistic regression, fuzzy algebraic product and the higher levels of gamma operators showed more satisfactory results, while the fuzzy and, or, algebraic sum maps were not sufficient to provide reliable outputs.     

Forward logistic regression for earth-flow landslide susceptibility assessment in the Platani river basin (southern Sicily,Italy)

Forward logistic regression has allowed us to derive an earth-flow susceptibility model for the Tumarrano river basin, which was defined by modeling the statistical relationships between an archive of 760 events and a set of 20 predictors. For each landslide in the inventory, a landslide identification point (LIP) was automatically produced as corresponding to the highest point along the boundary of the landslide polygons, and unstable conditions were assigned to cells at a distance up to 8 m. An equal number of stable cells (out of landslides) was then randomly extracted and appended to the LIPs to prepare the dataset for logistic regression. A model building strategy was applied to enlarge the area included in training the model and to verify the sensitivity of the regressed models with respect to the locations of the selected stable cells. A suite of 16 models was prepared by randomly extracting different unoverlapping stable cell subsets that have been appended to the unstable ones. Models were finally submitted to forward logistic regression and validated. The results showed satisfying and stable error rates (0.236 on average, with a standard deviation of 0.007) and areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUCs) (0.839 for training and 0.817 for test datasets) as well as factor selections (ranks and coefficients). As regards the predictors, steepness and large-profile and local-plan topographic curvatures were systematically selected. Clayey outcropping lithology, midslope drainage, local and midslope ridges, and canyon landforms were also very frequently (from eight to 15 times) included in the models by the forward selection procedures. The model-building strategy allowed us to produce a performing earth-flow susceptibility model, whose model fitting, prediction skill, and robustness were estimated on the basis of validation procedures, demonstrating the independence of the regressed model on the specific selection of the stable cells.     

A comparative study of sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines,vote feature intervals,and logistic regression in landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS

Landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS has been done for part of Uttarakhand region of Himalaya (India) with the objective of comparing the predictive capability of three different machine learning methods, namely sequential minimal optimization-based support vector machines (SMOSVM), vote feature intervals (VFI), and logistic regression (LR) for spatial prediction of landslide occurrence. Out of these three methods, the SMOSVM and VFI are state-of-the-art methods for binary classification problems but have not been applied for landslide prediction, whereas the LR is known as a popular method for landslide susceptibility assessment. In the study, a total of 430 historical landslide polygons and 11 landslide affecting factors such as slope angle, slope aspect, elevation, curvature, lithology, soil, land cover, distance to roads, distance to rivers, distance to lineaments, and rainfall were selected for landslide analysis. For validation and comparison, statistical index-based methods and the receiver operating characteristic curve have been used. Analysis results show that all these models have good performance for landslide spatial prediction but the SMOSVM model has the highest predictive capability, followed by the VFI model, and the LR model, respectively. Thus, SMOSVM is a better model for landslide prediction and can be used for landslide susceptibility mapping of landslide-prone areas.     

Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility using the transient infiltration flow model and GIS-based probabilistic approach

This study proposes a probabilistic analysis method for modeling rainfall-induced shallow landslide susceptibility by combining a transient infiltration flow model and Monte Carlo simulations. The spatiotemporal change in pore water pressure over time caused by rainfall infiltration is one of the most important factors causing landslides. Therefore, the transient infiltration hydrogeological model was adopted to estimate the pore water pressure within the hill slope and to analyze landslide susceptibility. In addition, because of the inherent uncertainty and variability caused by complex geological conditions and the limited number of available soil samples over a large area, this study utilized probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations to account for the variability in the input parameters. The analysis was performed in a geographic information system (GIS) environment because GIS can deal efficiently with a large volume of spatial data. To evaluate its effectiveness, the proposed analysis method was applied to a study area that had experienced a large number of landslides in July 2006. For the susceptibility analysis, a spatial database of input parameters and a landslide inventory map were constructed in a GIS environment. The results of the landslide susceptibility assessment were compared with the landslide inventory, and the proposed approach demonstrated good predictive performance. In addition, the probabilistic method exhibited better performance than the deterministic alternative. Thus, analysis methods that account for uncertainties in input parameters are more appropriate for analysis of an extensive area, for which uncertainties may significantly affect the predictions because of the large area and limited data.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility with logistic regression, multiple adaptive regression splines, classification and regression trees, and maximum entropy methods: a comparative study

Four statistical techniques for modelling landslide susceptibility were compared: multiple logistic regression (MLR), multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), classification and regression trees (CART), and maximum entropy (MAXENT). According to the literature, MARS and MAXENT have never been used in landslide susceptibility modelling, and CART has been used only twice. Twenty independent variables were used as predictors, including lithology as a categorical variable. Two sets of random samples were used, for a total of 90 model replicates (with and without lithology, and with different proportions of positive and negative data). The model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) statistic. The main results are (a) the inclusion of lithology improves the model performance; (b) the best AUC values for single models are MLR (0.76), MARS (0.76), CART (0.77), and MAXENT (0.78); (c) a smaller amount of negative data provides better results; (d) the models with the highest prediction capability are obtained with MAXENT and CART; and (e) the combination of different models is a way to evaluate the model reliability. We further discuss some key issues in landslide modelling, including the influence of the various methods that we used, the sample size, and the random replicate procedures.     

逻辑回归和人工神经网络模型在滑坡灾害空间预测中的应用

以三峡坝区到巴东段为研究区,选择坡度、坡向、软弱夹层、水系影响范围和土地利用状况等9项评价指标,分别采用逻辑回归和人工神经网络(ANN)模型,在ArcGIS平台上进行滑坡灾害危险性预测。此外,应用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC曲线)分析方法对两种模型的预测结果进行对比,分析结果表明滑坡危险性预测区划图和实际的滑坡发育情况基本吻合,逻辑回归模型和ANN模型的ROC曲线下面积AUC值分别为0.806和0.799,两种模型的预测结果可以相互验证,且逻辑回归模型的预测精度相对较高。     

Susceptibility assessment for rainfall-induced landslides using a revised logistic regression method

Natural Hazards - Landslide susceptibility is the likelihood of a landslide occurring in an area. The logistic regression (LR) method is one of the most popular methods for landslide susceptibility...     

Spatial prediction models for shallow landslide hazards: a comparative assessment of the efficacy of support vector machines,artificial neural networks,kernel logistic regression,and logistic model tree

Preparation of landslide susceptibility maps is considered as the first important step in landslide risk assessments, but these maps are accepted as an end product that can be used for land use planning. The main objective of this study is to explore some new state-of-the-art sophisticated machine learning techniques and introduce a framework for training and validation of shallow landslide susceptibility models by using the latest statistical methods. The Son La hydropower basin (Vietnam) was selected as a case study. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed using the historical landslide locations from two national projects in Vietnam. A total of 12 landslide conditioning factors were then constructed from various data sources. Landslide locations were randomly split into a ratio of 70:30 for training and validating the models. To choose the best subset of conditioning factors, predictive ability of the factors were assessed using the Information Gain Ratio with 10-fold cross-validation technique. Factors with null predictive ability were removed to optimize the models. Subsequently, five landslide models were built using support vector machines (SVM), multi-layer perceptron neural networks (MLP Neural Nets), radial basis function neural networks (RBF Neural Nets), kernel logistic regression (KLR), and logistic model trees (LMT). The resulting models were validated and compared using the receive operating characteristic (ROC), Kappa index, and several statistical evaluation measures. Additionally, Friedman and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests were applied to confirm significant statistical differences among the five machine learning models employed in this study. Overall, the MLP Neural Nets model has the highest prediction capability (90.2 %), followed by the SVM model (88.7 %) and the KLR model (87.9 %), the RBF Neural Nets model (87.1 %), and the LMT model (86.1 %). Results revealed that both the KLR and the LMT models showed promising methods for shallow landslide susceptibility mapping. The result from this study demonstrates the benefit of selecting the optimal machine learning techniques with proper conditioning selection method in shallow landslide susceptibility mapping.     

Application of logistic regression for landslide susceptibility zoning of Cekmece Area, Istanbul, Turkey

As a result of industrialization, throughout the world, cities have been growing rapidly for the last century. One typical example of these growing cities is Istanbul, the population of which is over 10 million. Due to rapid urbanization, new areas suitable for settlement and engineering structures are necessary. The Cekmece area located west of the Istanbul metropolitan area is studied, because the landslide activity is extensive in this area. The purpose of this study is to develop a model that can be used to characterize landslide susceptibility in map form using logistic regression analysis of an extensive landslide database. A database of landslide activity was constructed using both aerial-photography and field studies. About 19.2% of the selected study area is covered by deep-seated landslides. The landslides that occur in the area are primarily located in sandstones with interbedded permeable and impermeable layers such as claystone, siltstone and mudstone. About 31.95% of the total landslide area is located at this unit. To apply logistic regression analyses, a data matrix including 37 variables was constructed. The variables used in the forwards stepwise analyses are different measures of slope, aspect, elevation, stream power index (SPI), plan curvature, profile curvature, geology, geomorphology and relative permeability of lithological units. A total of 25 variables were identified as exerting strong influence on landslide occurrence, and included by the logistic regression equation. Wald statistics values indicate that lithology, SPI and slope are more important than the other parameters in the equation. Beta coefficients of the 25 variables included the logistic regression equation provide a model for landslide susceptibility in the Cekmece area. This model is used to generate a landslide susceptibility map that correctly classified 83.8% of the landslide-prone areas.     

Mapping susceptibility of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides using a probabilistic approach

To prepare a landslide susceptibility map is essential to identify hazardous regions, construct appropriate mitigation facilities, and plan emergency measures for a region prone to landslides triggered by rainfall. The conventional mapping methods require much information about past landslides records and contributing terrace and rainfall. They also rely heavily on the quantity and quality of accessible information and subjectively of the map builder. This paper contributes to a systematic and quantitative assessment of mapping landslide hazards over a region. Geographical Information System is implemented to retrieve relevant parameters from data layers, including the spatial distribution of transient fluid pressures, which is estimated using the TRIGRS program. The factor of safety of each pixel in the study region is calculated analytically. Monte Carlo simulation of random variables is conducted to process the estimation of fluid pressure and factor of safety for multiple times. The failure probability of each pixel is thus estimated. These procedures of mapping landslide potential are demonstrated in a case history. The analysis results reveal a positive correlation between landslide probability and accumulated rainfall. This approach gives simulation results compared to field records. The location and size of actual landslide are well predicted. An explanation for some of the inconsistencies is also provided to emphasize the importance of site information on the accuracy of mapping results.     

Effect of using various weighting methods in a process of landslide susceptibility assessment

Natural Hazards - This study discusses the evaluation of the effect of using different weighting approaches in the process of landslide susceptibility assessment. Weighting process is needed,...     

Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model

Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socio-economic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.     

Torrential rainfall-triggered shallow landslide characteristics and susceptibility assessment using ensemble data-driven models in the Dongjiang Reservoir Watershed,China

Natural Hazards - This study investigated the characteristics of rainfall-triggered landslides during the Typhoon Bilis in the Dongjiang Reservoir Watershed, China. The comparative shallow...     

An assessment on the use of logistic regression and artificial neural networks with different sampling strategies for the preparation of landslide susceptibility maps

The main purpose of this study is to highlight the conceptual differences of produced susceptibility models by applying different sampling strategies: from all landslide area with depletion and accumulation zones and from a zone which almost represents pre-failure conditions. Variations on accuracy and precision values of the models constructed considering different algorithms were also investigated. For this purpose, two most popular techniques, logistic regression analysis and back-propagation artificial neural networks were taken into account. The town Ispir and its close vicinity (Northeastern part of Turkey), suffered from landsliding for many years was selected as the application site of this study. As a result, it is revealed that the back-propagation artificial neural network algorithms overreact to the samplings in which the presence (1) data were taken from the landslide masses. When the generalization capacities of the models are taken into consideration, these reactions cause imprecise results, even though the area under curve (AUC) values are very high (0.915 < AUC < 0.949). On the other hand, the susceptibility maps, based on the samplings in which the presence (1) data were taken from a zone which almost represents pre-failure conditions constitute more realistic susceptibility evaluations. However, considering the spatial texture of the final susceptibility values, the maps produced using the outputs of the back-propagation artificial neural networks could be interpreted as highly optimistic, while of those generated using the resultant probabilities of the logistic regression equations might be evaluated as pessimistic. Consequently, it is evident that, there are still some needs for further investigations with more realistic validations and data to find out the appropriate accuracy and precision levels in such kind of landslide susceptibility studies.     

Improving the accuracy of landslide susceptibility model using a novel region-partitioning approach

Landslide is a natural disaster that threatens human lives and properties worldwide. Numerous have been conducted on landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), in which each has attempted to improve the accuracy of final outputs. This study presents a novel region-partitioning approach for LSM to understand the effects of partitioning a focused region into smaller areas on the prediction accuracy of common regression models. Results showed that the partitioning of the study area into two regions using the proposed method improved the prediction rate from 0.77 to 0.85 when support vector machine was used, and from 0.87 to 0.88 when logistic regression model was utilized. The spatial agreements of the models were also improved after partitioning the area into two regions based on Shannon entropy equations. Our comparative study indicated that the proposed method outperformed the geographically weighted regression model that considered the spatial variations in landslide samples. Overall, the main advantages of the proposed method are improved accuracy and the reduction of the effects of spatial variations exhibited in landslide-conditioning factors.