Historical tsunami in the Makran Subduction Zone off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan and results of numerical modeling

Tsunami hazard in the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), off the southern coasts of Iran and Pakistan, was studied by numerical modeling of historical tsunami in this region. Although the MSZ triggered the second deadliest tsunami in the Indian Ocean, among those known, the tsunami hazard in this region has yet to be analyzed in detail. This paper reports the results of a risk analysis using five scenario events based on the historic records, and identifies a seismic gap area in western Makran off the southern coast of Iran. This is a possible site for a future large earthquake and tsunami. In addition, we performed numerical modeling to explain some ambiguities in the historical reports. Based on the modeling results, we conclude that either the extreme run-up of 12–15 m assigned for the 1945 Makran tsunami in the historical record was produced by a submarine landslide triggered by the parent earthquake, or that these reports are exaggerated. The other possibility could be the generation of the huge run-up heights by large displacements on splay faults. The results of run-up modeling reveal that a large earthquake and tsunami in the MSZ is capable of producing considerable run-up heights in the far field. Therefore, it is possible that the MSZ was the source of the tsunami encountered by a Portuguese fleet in Dabhul in 1524.     

马克兰俯冲带海域水合物高分辨率地震数据处理及初步成果

综合地球物理调查表明,北印度洋阿拉伯海马克兰俯冲带海域水合物资源非常丰富。为调查该海域水合物及与其相关的流体活动,采集了高分辨率多道地震数据,分析了原始地震数据的特征,并按照常规水合物地震数据处理流程进行处理,获得了较好的处理效果。基于新采集处理的地震数据,识别出了经典的BSR、非经典的BSR及双BSR现象。双BSR的发现表明该海域的水合物处在一个复杂的动态过程中,对该海域水合物的研究具有重要意义。由于本次地震数据的排列长度较短（最大排列长度1 300 m）,对该海域水合物的定量分析以及精细刻画受到了限制。结合此次采集的短排列数据以及理论公式分析了排列长度对水合物勘探的影响,指出在水合物的勘探中,除了震源能量、频率、道间距等参数外,排列长度也是一个需要优化设计的参数。     

Assessment of tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province,China

Shandong province is located on the east coast of China and has a coastline of about 3100 km. There are only a few tsunami events recorded in the history of Shandong Province, but the tsunami hazard assessment is still necessary as the rapid economic development and increasing population of this area. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential danger posed by tsunamis for Shandong Province. The numerical simulation method was adopted to assess the tsunami hazard for coastal areas of Shandong Province. The Cornell multi-grid coupled tsunami numerical model (COMCOT) was used and its efficacy was verified by comparison with three historical tsunami events. The simulated maximum tsunami wave height agreed well with the observational data. Based on previous studies and statistical analyses, multiple earthquake scenarios in eight seismic zones were designed, the magnitudes of which were set as the potential maximum values. Then, the tsunamis they induced were simulated using the COMCOT model to investigate their impact on the coastal areas of Shandong Province. The numerical results showed that the maximum tsunami wave height, which was caused by the earthquake scenario located in the sea area of the Mariana Islands, could reach up to 1.39 m off the eastern coast of Weihai city. The tsunamis from the seismic zones of the Bohai Sea, Okinawa Trough, and Manila Trench could also reach heights of >1 m in some areas, meaning that earthquakes in these zones should not be ignored. The inundation hazard was distributed primarily in some northern coastal areas near Yantai and southeastern coastal areas of Shandong Peninsula. When considering both the magnitude and arrival time of tsunamis, it is suggested that greater attention be paid to earthquakes that occur in the Bohai Sea. In conclusion, the tsunami hazard facing the coastal area of Shandong Province is not very serious; however, disasters could occur if such events coincided with spring tides or other extreme oceanic conditions. The results of this study will be useful for the design of coastal engineering projects and the establishment of a tsunami warning system for Shandong Province.     

日本九州俯冲带b值成像及其构造意义 *

日本九州俯冲带是菲律宾海板块与欧亚板块汇聚边界上一个独具特色的区域, 也是研究俯冲带内板块构造作用的理想场所。为了解该俯冲带内的板间应力状态和相互作用, 本研究利用震源深度大于20km的97251个地震事件, 通过b值计算详细刻画了该俯冲板片上表面以及垂直海沟走向的剖面特征。结果发现, b值表现出明显的空间变化, 整体上沿南海海槽和琉球海沟从东北往西南方向逐渐增大, 同时在俯冲的九州-帕劳海脊上存在显著的低值区。从b值与应力的负相关性推断, 进入俯冲带的海脊以及海脊东北侧的四国海盆洋壳与俯冲带上覆板片耦合作用较强; 而在海脊西南侧, 俯冲带内汇聚板片的耦合作用相对较弱。究其原因, 本文认为九州-帕劳海脊两侧俯冲洋壳在形成时代和汇聚速率上的差异起着重要作用。对于九州-帕劳海脊来说, 俯冲带浅部的低b值区主要是由于隆起的海脊增强了与上覆板块的耦合作用。随着俯冲深度的增加和俯冲板片倾角的急剧变陡, 沿海脊可能发生了板片撕裂, 从而释放了海脊与上覆板片间的挤压-剪切应力, 使耦合程度大大减弱。     

日本南海海槽俯冲带的地质特征及其构造意义

日本西南部的南海海槽是一个典型的俯冲系统,由菲律宾海板块向欧亚板块俯冲形成,其俯冲板片包含了九州-帕劳洋脊（KPR）、Kinan海山链、四国海盆和伊豆-小笠原岛弧（IBA）等多种地质单元。为了研究不同地质单元的板块俯冲效应,本文系统分析了南海海槽的地球物理和岩石地球化学特征。重力和热流特征显示南海海槽中部具有低的重力异常（-20–-40 mGal）和高的热流值（60–200 mW/m²）,而东西两侧的热流值（20–80 mW/m²）较低。地震模拟结果显示俯冲板块的地壳厚度为5–20 km。地球化学结果表明俯冲板块的下覆地幔成分从西到东逐渐亏损。无震洋脊（如KPR、Kian海山链和Zenisu洋脊）的俯冲是控制南海海槽俯冲效应的主要因素。首先,无震洋脊的俯冲可能使上覆板块发生变形,沿着增生楔前缘出现不规则的地形凹陷。其次,无震洋脊的俯冲是大型逆冲地震的止裂体,阻碍了南海海槽1944年Mw 8.1和1946年Mw 8.3地震破裂的传播。此外,KPR和热的、年轻的四国海盆的俯冲会导致俯冲板片熔融,在日本岛弧上出现埃达克质岩浆活动,并为斑岩铜金矿床提供成矿物质。地球物理和地球化学特征的差异表明尽管IBA已经和日本岛弧发生碰撞,但作为IBA的残留弧,KPR仍然处于俯冲阶段,与日本岛弧之间有明显的地形分界,呈现单向收敛的状态。     

南桑威奇俯冲带大地水准面异常及其地幔对流特征分析

以南桑威奇俯冲带为例,根据EGM2008超高阶地球重力场模型、卫星重力数据为基础,利用移去-恢复原理计算了研究区大地水准面,实现了研究区不同场源深度大地水准面异常信息的分离,根据Runcorn模型计算了研究区小尺度地幔对流应力场,并结合天然地震空间展布和前人研究成果,对俯冲带结构特征与地幔对流模式进行了探讨。结果表明:南桑威奇俯冲带具有俯冲倾角较大、地震震级较低、弧前侵蚀明显等典型的马里亚纳型俯冲带特征,俯冲带南北部俯冲深度存在明显差异,中段偏北俯冲深度可达500 km;受到软流圈与上地幔上部物质密度差异的控制,东斯科舍海脊下存在沿海脊轴向南流动强地幔流;俯冲带结构与小尺度地幔对流应力场具有很强的相关性。本研究对于搞清南桑威奇俯冲带深部构造特征,理解俯冲运动、地幔对流方向及其动力控制机制提供了新的研究思路和方法。     

Chemical composition of sediments from the subducting Cocos Ridge segment at the Southern Central American subduction zone

Subducted sediments play an important role in the magmatism at subduction zones and the formation of mantle heterogeneity, making them an important tracer for shallow crustal processes and deep mantle processes.Therefore, ascertaining the chemical compositions of different subduction end-members is a prerequisite for using subducted sediments to trace key geological processes. We reports here the comprehensive major and trace element analyses of 52 samples from two holes（U1414 A and U1381 C） dri...     

Wave characteristic and morphologic effects on the onshore hydrodynamic response of tsunamis

While the destruction caused by a tsunami can vary significantly owing to near- and onshore controls, we have only a limited quantitative understanding of how different local parameters influence the onshore response of tsunamis. Here, a numerical model based on the non-linear shallow water equations is first shown to agree well with analytical expressions developed for periodic long waves inundating over planar slopes. More than 13,000 simulations are then conducted to examine the effects variations in the wave characteristics, bed slopes, and bottom roughness have on maximum tsunami run-up and water velocity at the still water shoreline. While deviations from periodic waves and planar slopes affect the onshore dynamics, the details of these effects depend on a combination of factors. In general, the effects differ for breaking and non-breaking waves, and are related to the relative shift of the waves along the breaking–non-breaking wave continuum. Variations that shift waves toward increased breaking, such as steeper wave fronts, tend to increase the onshore impact of non-breaking waves, but decrease the impact of already breaking waves. The onshore impact of a tsunami composed of multiple waves can be different from that of a single wave tsunami, with the largest difference occurring on long, shallow onshore topographies. These results demonstrate that the onshore response of a tsunami is complex, and that using analytical expressions derived from simplified conditions may not always be appropriate.     

大洋岩石圈板块俯冲构造背景下流体的地质作用

地幔中存在着大量的“水”(存在形式:H₂O、H+和(HO)?)已是不争的事实,这些“水”既可以以流体或熔体的形式存在,又可以存在于含水矿物、名义上的无水矿物和致密含水镁硅酸盐中。在本文中,“流体”是指以水为主体包括溶解于水中或随水迁移的元素和化合物。在俯冲带的地震作用、地幔部分熔融、岩浆作用以及海底热液活动等重大地质作用过程中,流体都发挥着重要的作用。俯冲带是水化了的大洋岩石圈板块俯冲进入地球深处的关键部位,也是壳幔相互作用的重要地带。在俯冲带,流体随俯冲的岩石圈板块进入地球深部,部分在挤压和摩擦热的作用下脱逸俯冲的岩石圈板块,连同岩石矿物变质所产生的水进入上覆地幔楔,从而降低上覆地幔物质的熔点,产生岩浆;岩浆上升一方面加热了沿裂隙或物质间隙下渗的海水,另一方面也会因岩浆冷却产生岩浆作用后期热液流体,这些加热的下渗海水和岩浆作用后期流体构成了现代海底热液活动的物质基础;海底热液活动不仅将大量地下元素或物质输入大洋水体从而影响了大洋海水的物质组成及生态环境,而且在海底形成了具有重要经济价值的热液多金属矿体。因此,流体是贯穿板块俯冲及其所产生的各种重要地质作用过程的介质,从而成为研究这些重要地质作用的示踪剂。本文在分析了大洋岩石圈板块俯冲构造背景下流体的主要地质作用过程的基础上,探讨了流体在俯冲带地震发生机制、岩浆作用过程、现代海底热液活动模式及俯冲带流体成矿作用等方面的作用,并进一步提出近期研究工作应主要集中在4个方面:(1)进一步准确地定量评估通过板块俯冲作用进入地球深部的“流体”通量,为最终解决全球地球化学或物质循环问题作出贡献;(2)全面、准确地描述俯冲作用中流体的物理和化学行为,建立俯冲带流体地质作用的理论模型;(3)充分利用现代化的测试分析手段,重点获取矿物原位微区分析、矿物流体包裹体物理化学指标测试、稳定和放射性同位素分析等方面的精细准确数据,用于查明当前取样观测手段无法触及的地下深处物质状态和作用过程;(4)发展数值模拟技术,建立俯冲带流体地质作用的理论模型。     

无震脊或海山链俯冲对超俯冲带处的地质效应

全球海底分布着众多的无震脊或海山链,且在太平洋、印度洋及大西洋均存在靠近俯冲带的海岭。除小安德列斯弧外的巴拉克达脊和蒂勃朗脊起源自转换断层外,一般认为它们由与板块构造动力学迥异的地幔柱动力学所形成的。在板块汇聚边缘处,与扩张脊处所形成的正常洋壳一起,无震脊或海山链俯冲于陆缘弧或洋内弧之下,其对弧及弧后地区的地质效应(构造、地貌、地震以及岩浆作用等)有别于正常洋壳俯冲。无震脊或海山链的俯冲通常造成俯冲带地区的上驮板块的局部异常抬升、俯冲剥蚀作用效应的加强、海沟的向陆迁移以及地震强度的增加。同时,无震脊或海山链俯冲时,其携带的具富集地球化学特征的物质不仅影响着地幔地球化学,也对弧及弧后火山熔岩化学产生明显影响,并对超俯冲地区的热液矿床的形成产生重要影响。最后,本文指出了我国有关无震脊或海山链俯冲的可能的研究方向包括黄岩海山链俯冲对吕宋岛弧的可能影响、印度洋无震脊俯冲对青藏高原局部地区的影响,有我国学者参与的IODP344航次的研究对象——科科斯脊俯冲对哥斯达黎加地震成因的效应以及位于西太平洋地区靠近俯冲带的一些无震脊等。     

关键海区潜沉率对全球变暖停滞的可能影响

本文从潜沉率入手,探究了潜沉率在全球变暖停滞过程中可能发挥的作用。本文利用SODA资料首先分析了全球潜沉率的时空分布特征,然后基于EOF分解明确了北大西洋翻转流区域和南极绕极流区域是潜沉率变率较大的两个海区,在此基础上选出了4个关键海区研究了局地潜沉率变化与全球海表温度异常之间的相关关系,最后对关键区潜沉率变化的原因进行了初步探索。结果表明,北大西洋翻转流和南极绕极流范围内的关键区域与全球变暖停滞之间存在超前10年的相关关系,潜沉过程可能是北大西洋翻转流和南极绕极流对全球变暖停滞产生作用的一种机制。平流项在这些关键区域的潜沉率变化中起主导作用。在南极绕极流地区,海面风应力的大小与该区域的潜沉变化密切相关。     

A real-time observation network of ocean-bottom-seismometers deployed at the Sagami trough subduction zone,central Japan

We installed a real-time operating regional observation network of Ocean-Bottom-Seismometers, connected to an electro-optical fiber communication cable, at the Sagami trough subduction zone, just south of the Tokyo metropolitan area, central Japan. The network, called ETMC, has six seismic observation sites at approximately 20 km spacing. In addition, there are three tsunami observation sites along the ETMC network to monitor the propagation process of tsunamis around the Sagami trough region.The on-line data from the ETMC has been improving the detection capability of smaller-magnitude earthquakes even at areas close to the margin of the trough. The ETMC data analyzing system, which has a function of real-time digital filtering for each seismic channel, can read the arrival times of P- and S-waves precisely, constraining well the automatic on-line hypocenter locations. The network has been providing useful information regarding the bending and downgoing process of the Philippine sea plate at the Sagami trough subduction zone.The pressure sensors of the installed network have a detection capability of tsunami wave trains with an amplitude of less than 1 cm. For example, the sensors recorded the full time history of tsunami wave trains, with mm order resolution, originating from a tsunami earthquake with 5.7 M_W and the tsunami magnitude of 7.5 occurred near Tori Shima (Tori Is.) of the Izu-Bonin Is. arc on September 4, 1996. The maximum amplitude of the tsunami signals on the trough-floor was approximately 1 cm (P-P), in contrast with approximately 20 cm (0-P) at a coastal site on Izu-Oshima, near the trough. Also, the pressure sensors observed tsunamis due to a large tsunami earthquake (7.1 M_W) at the northern New Guinea, on July 17, 1998.     

南海东部马尼拉俯冲带深部结构新认识

2015—2018年, 国家自然科学基金重大研究计划“南海深海过程演变”的重点支持项目“南海东部马尼拉俯冲带深部结构探测与研究”以马尼拉俯冲带为研究重点, 从深部地球物理的角度探索南海形成演化史与运行规律。项目执行期间, 在国家基金委共享航次协助下, 先后开展和参与5次综合地球物理探测, 共投放海底地震仪(Ocean Bottom Seismometer, OBS)台站73台次, 海底电磁仪(Ocean Bottom ElectroMagnetometers, OBEM)仪器5台次, 累积放炮达13872炮, 成功获得了60台OBS数据和5台OBEM数据。同时, 取得了一系列创新性研究成果: (1)基于人工地震探测及天然地震层析成像结果, 确定南海东北部的地壳属性为受到张裂后期岩浆活动影响的减薄陆壳(12~15km), 划分了南海北部陆缘洋陆边界(Continent-Ocean Boundary, COB); (2)根据多道地震反射剖面, 划分了马尼拉俯冲带北部增生楔前缘的精细结构; (3)圈定了南海停止扩张时洋壳范围; (4)初步构建了南海与菲律宾海板块构造演化模型。本项目为重大研究计划“南海深海过程演变”核心科学问题(海底扩张的年代与过程)提供了实质性的证据, 同时为南海构造演化生命史的“骨架”提供了重要的基础数据, 具有深远的科学意义。     

深海汇聚区的焦散结构与声能分布特征

在深海汇聚区声场中,不同初始角的声线在传播过程中因折射程度差异形成特定的焦散结构。根据射线理论推导了线性剖面条件下用F算子表示的声线轨迹模型,并讨论了焦散结构与掠射角及声源-接收深度配置的变化关系。折射型焦散线由0°~5°的小角度声线构成,为波导结构;反射型焦散线由掠射角为±(5°~10°)的声线构成,为折线结构,且上行与下行声线的焦散线结构明显不同。应用BELLHOP模型分析得出了汇聚区增益与声源-接收深度条件的变化关系,并根据射线到达结构和焦散特征提出了一种确定汇聚区位置和范围的方法。     

渤海湾西岸潮间带现代沉积速率研究

利用渤海湾西岸潮间带柱状沉积物的210Pb_ex和137Cs活度测定结果,计算了潮间带现代沉积物的平均沉积速率,结果表明,渤海湾西岸潮间带砂质区(道沟子至独流减河)1955～1963年的沉积速率为3.43～4.06cm/a,1963年以来的平均沉积速率为0.65～1.59cm/a;泥质区(歧口附近)的平均沉积速率约为1.81cm/a.上述结果说明潮间带砂质区在20世纪50～60年代发生快速沉积作用,60年代之后沉积作用变缓.这可能是由于华北地区在该时段具有丰沛的降水和入海水沙,为潮间带沉积物提供了丰富的物源.60年代以后沉积作用变缓可能是自然和人类活动引起的入海水量减少和由此导致的物源减少的结果.     

深海会聚区波导不变量特征研究及应用

为了解决深海会聚区目标及其运动态势难以判断的问题,在研究会聚区形成条件和其声场传播规律以及波导不变量理论的基础上,对典型深海环境不同位置的声强距离-频率分布图中的干涉条纹特征进行理论分析和仿真验证。结果表明,深海会聚区存在与其他区域不同的干涉条纹特征,其对应的波导不变量?值为负。本文提出了利用会聚区特有的干涉条纹特征,对会聚区目标及其运动态势进行初步判断的方法,仿真结果和试验数据表明,判断方法具有可行性和有效性。     

Modeling of iceberg drift in the marginal ice zone of the Barents Sea

The paper is focused on the analysis of the drift of tabular iceberg observed in 2009 in the marginal ice zone of the North-West Barents Sea. Momentum balance equations are derived from the Kirchhoff equations describing plane motion of solid body in an ideal fluid. Field works performed on the drift iceberg and on the drift icenear the iceberg are described. Results of the field works and numerical simulations of the iceberg drift and rotation are performed and discussed. It is shown that acceleration of water flow around the iceberg has visible influence on the iceberg drift. Kinetic energy balance of drift iceberg is used to estimate the forces applied to the iceberg by the drift ice.     

声跃层结构变化对深海汇聚区声传播的影响

根据射线理论建立了线性声速结构条件下的声跃层强度与深海汇聚区关系模型,用最小位移角讨论了海洋环境变化（如声跃层强度变化、声跃层位置变化及季节性跃层生消等）与汇聚区距离和宽度变化的相关性.结果表明,声跃层的结构变化对汇聚区特征影响很大.声跃层强度增大使汇聚区向远离声源的方向变化,跃层强度每增加0.01 s-1对应的汇聚区位移增大约为3.5～5.0 km.声跃层位置变化对汇聚区的影响小于声跃层强度,与两层结构的声速剖面相比,上行结构使汇聚区向靠近声源的方向变化,声跃层上升200 m对应的汇聚区位移减小约为1.0～1.5 km,声跃层越浅,汇聚区距离越近;下行结构使汇聚区向远离声源的方向变化,混合层加深200 m对应的汇聚区位移增大约为1.0～1.5 km,混合层越深,汇聚区距离越远.季节性跃层的生消使近表层有负梯度、零梯度和正梯度的变化.负梯度结构的变化规律与两层结构条件下的声跃层强度变化类似,但对汇聚区的影响程度相对较小;正梯度结构使汇聚区在近表层出现表面声道,梯度值的增强将使汇聚区向靠近声源的方向变化.     

Scenarios of tsunami amplitudes in the north eastern coast of Sea of Marmara generated by submarine mass failure

In this paper the tsunamis resulting from a submarine mass failure such as slides and slumps triggered by earthquakes or other environmental effects, which is settled at the bottom of the north eastern Sea of Marmara are examined in one sample region. As the solution method, one hybrid method is developed. The main objective of this method is to combine an analytical solution presenting near-field tsunami amplitudes above the submarine mass failure with a numerical solution indicating the tsunami amplitudes in the coastal regions. For this purpose, one common linear boundary between analytical and numerical solution domains is defined. Movements of Submarine Mass Failures (SMF) are modeled using one simple kinematics source model and the amplitudes of the tsunamis at the region that are closer to the landslide are computed by using the analytical method. SMF is modeled approximately from the bottom geometry, and an average depth is used. Scenarios of SMF are established depending on the velocities and thicknesses of the failure, and near-field tsunami amplitudes are obtained in the open sea during the source time. After the source times, the solutions are found in the numerical region using TELEMAC-2D software system with the mentioned boundary above. In this boundary, the output of the analytical solutions is taken as the boundary conditions or the disturbances for the numerical method. With these disturbances, the numerical method is performed and the amplitudes are calculated in the coastal area. The generation, propagation and coastal amplifications of the tsunamis are illustrated at some certain points and regions both in the open sea and near the coast line. The results have been visualized and discussed.     

一个西太平洋冷涡影响下的会聚区声传播变异特征分析

以Argo资料给出的一个典型西太平洋冬季冷涡为环境背景,应用BELLHOP高斯束射线模型计算声场,通过比较环境水平不变与环境水平变化声场的差异性,得出了涡旋环境和地形变化共同影响下会聚区声场出现的一些变异特征。分析结果表明,涡西侧声场在深海平坦地形条件下会聚区保持完整,从涡外向涡内传播时会聚区距离逐渐变小,反之距离变大,同时,涡中心附近的冷水上涌破坏了近表层的表面声道,使声传播损失突然增大。涡东侧的海山地形阻碍了会聚区反转,使声场出现了复杂的变异特征,如会聚区的截断、上反转点的抬升或下降、声线的多途传播以及增益位置的不规则变化等。这些声场变异特征是由西太平洋的背景环境、涡中的水文非均匀分布以及地形变化共同引起的。当地形变化不影响会聚区反转时,声场变化主要受涡锋面两侧水文环境差异的影响,典型特征是会聚区的偏移和表面声道的生消;当地形变化对会聚区反转产生明显的干扰时,地形条件对于声场能量分布具有主导作用,非均匀水文环境的影响弱化,但仍起到重要的调制作用。