Research on Earthquakes in Cities of China

In this paper, we briefly describe the general destruction caused by historic earthquakes in major cities of China, preliminarily analyze the heaviness and widespread occurrence of earthquakes in cities of China, and suggest that research on scenario earthquakes in cities should be developed as a part urban disaster reduction research.     

Historical Earthquakes in the Yellow Sea and Its Adjacent Area

INTRODUCTIONDuetotheincreaseddemandsofmarineengineeringseismologyandseismicsafetyassessmentinlittoralmegalopolisesinrecentyears ,thestudyofhistoricalearthquakebackgroundandtheseismicitypatternsintheYellowSeaanditsadjacentareahasarousedgeneralconcern .Geog…     

Discussion of Some Problems in the Research into the Seismotectonics of Strong Earthquakes on the North China Plain

The tectonic characteristics and research problems of five earthquakes with M≥7.0 on the North China Plain over the last 300 years are addressed in the paper, including the cognition that there were no ground fractures in the 1966 Xingtai earthquake, the question caused by the thrust activity of the seismic fault of the Tangshan Earthquake and the discussion of the seismotectonic environment of the 1830 Cixian earthquake and the 1937 Heze earthquake. The author thinks that the main reason for the problems in research of strong earthquake tectonics in the region is that the status of activity of the main tectonics during the Late Quaternary are unknown. This affects the founding of discrimination criteria for seismotectonics of strong earthquakes on the North China Plain. Discriminating the Holocene active faults from the large number of faults is the most effective method for seismic hazard assessment in the area in future.     

Characteristics of Geoelectric and Geomagnetic Data before Strong Earthquakes in the North China Region

The earth resistivity and geomagnetic observation data of the Z component from many stations in near-epicentral areas of strong earthquakes are combined and calculated by using a spatial linearity method and a new characteristic value, the spatial linearity a, describing the precursory field in near-epicentral area of strong earthquake, is obtained. The analysis and calculation results of geoelectric and geomagnetic observation data prior to 8 earthquakes with M≥5.5 occurring in the North China region show that a value near the epicentral area tendsto decrease significantly half a year before strong earthquakes.     

Study on the Determination of the Significant National Seismic Monitoring and Protection Regions

The paper describes firstly the principles and scientific train of thought involved in determining the significant seismic monitoring and protection regions (SSMPR) in China. The principles include the gradation principle, i.e. the national level SSMPR and the provincial level SSMPR, the principle of highlighting priorities, namely, the area of an SSMPR should be a fraction of the total area of the country or of the respective province, but the earthquake losses incurred in SSMPR should be a major proportion of the national or provincial ones. The scientific train of thought adopted is to determine the SSMPR on the basis of seismic hazard assessment and loss estimation. Secondly, it reviews the achievements in determining the SSMPRs for the period from 1996 to 2005. The result shows that 10 strong earthquakes occurred during that period in the areas with earthquake monitoring and prediction capability available on the Chinese continent, 8 of which occurred in SSMPRs with the economic loss and death toll accounting for 67% and 92% of the total loss on the Chinese mainland. Lastly, the paper introduces preparatory research for determining the SSMPR for the period from 2006 to 2020, including decade-scale mid-and long-range seismic risk assessment based on seismology, seismogeology, geodesy, earthquake engineering, sociology and stochastics and so on, and the national seismic risk probability map, the seismic hazard (intensity) map, earthquake disaster losses map and the comprehensive seismic risk index, etc. obtained for the period of 2006 to 2020.     

The Volutionary Characteristics of Seismic Activity in the SichuanYunnan Region,China

Based on the earthquake activity characteristics of the diamond block in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and by using the method of the meso-scope damage dynamics and damage evolution,we studied the damage evolution process for moderately strong earthquakes along two seismicbelts.The original combination patterns of all the units which illuminate the changes from stable state to destroyed state are given.All these patterns can direct the earthquake prediction practice in this region     

Study on the Source Parameters of Earthquakes in the Middle Eastern Area of North Tianshan in Xinjiang

INTRODUCTIONThe study of source parameters is usually based oninversionfromobservational seismic waveformdata.Seismic wave affected bygeometric spreading,inelastic attenuation,scatteringandsite effects ofthe mediumontheir way fromsource to station.Therefo…     

Research on the Seismic Vulnerability of Building Structure in Sichuan Province

Research on the seismic vulnerability of building structures is very important for the work of earthquake disaster preparedness and mitigation.On the basis of the related studies over a long time,this paper provides several seismic vulnerability matrices of building structure in different regions of Sichuan Province,Poor anti-seismic capability is one of the factors resulting in the earthquake disasters in the past.We can reduce economic losses caused by earthquake through improving the anti-seismic and prevention level of building structures in Sichuan Province.     

Focal Depth of Earthquakes in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and Its Tectonic Implication

In the previous work of the present study,moment tensors of 11 major earthquakes in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and its surrounding region from 1966 to 1980 are estimated by generalized inversion technique.The seismic source time function and focal depth are immediately determined in the inversion.The results indicated that all earthquakes investigated here are shallow events within the upper crust.The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of the distribution of focal depths of earthquakes in and near the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from the above result,combining the focal depths of 78 significant earthquakes from 1964 to 1986,which are relocated individually by other authors,as well as to discuss its tectonic implication.     

An Inhomogeneous Distribution Model of Strong Earthquakes along Strike-Slip Active Fault Segments on the Chinese Continent and Its Implication in Engineering Seismology

Through the statistical analysis of earthquake distribution along 51 strike-slip active fault segments on the Chinese continent, we found that strong earthquake distribution along the seismogenic fault segments is inhomogeneons and the distribution probability density p (K) canbe stated as p(K)=1.1206e^3.947k^2 in which K = S/(L/2), S refers to the distance from earthquake epicenter to the center of a fault segment, L is the length of the fault segment. The above model can be utilized to modify the probability density of earthquake occurrence of the maximum magnitude interval in apotential earth quake source. Nevertheless, it is only suitable for thosepotential earthquake sources delineated along a single seismogenic fault. This inhomogeneons model has certain effects on seismic risk assessment, especially for those potential earthquake sources with higher earthquakerates of the maximum magnitude interval. In general, higher reoccurrence rate of the maximum magnitude interval and lower exceeding probability level may bring larger difference of the results in seismic risk analysis by adopting the inhomogeneons model, the PGA values increase inner the potential earthquake source, but reduce near the vicinity and out of the potential earthquake source. Taking the Tangyin potential earthquake source as an example, with exceeding probability of 10% and 2% in 50 years, the difference of the PGA values between inhomogeneons model and homogenous models can reach 12 %.     

基于中国大陆5级以上地震重复性的年度地震预测及其效能检验

对中国大陆1971年以来发生的5级以上地震年度重复的空间特征进行分析研究,结果表明当中国大陆发生1个5级以上地震后,下一年度在该地震震中周围某一半径范围内,再次发生5级以上地震的概率非常高。利用统计研究结果,根据某一年发生的5级以上地震对下一年度进行地震预测,并对预测效能进行R值检验。文中还对1990年以来基于地震重复性的年度地震预测R值和我国实际年度地震预测R值进行比较,结果表明该方法是一种有效的年度地震预测方法,可以作为我国年度地震危险区的划分依据之一。     

云南年度危险区预测能力的统计分析

通过对云南省地震局1989—2006年度地震趋势研究报告中年度预测水平、 危险区圈定和实际发生地震情况等统计分析, 结果显示云南地区每年发生2.8组M≥5地震, 3年发生2组M≥6地震, 发震的自然概率较高, 1989年以来年度地震活动水平预测为M≥6的对应率较高, 达到了56%。 危险区的预测不能用异常数量的多少来判定, 对于M≥6地震, 应用4级地震频度增长显著的区域和高水位异常区域等指标能更好的预测危险区。 5级地震在云南地区有的时候异常出现最多就是2～3个月就发震, 年度很难用异常判断级地震的危险区, 但5级地震也存在10年左右的主体活动地区迁移现象, 利用主体活动地区的特征可以提高5级地震发生区域的预测能力。 年度应重点跟踪M≥6地震, 由于云南地区6级以上地震发生前中小地震活动增长和前兆异常出现后, 对应地震的时间从几个月到3年不等, 但半年尺度前兆异常数量增加显著, 因此在看到地震活动增强后动态跟踪前兆的变化, 采用长、 中、 短、 临渐进式的预报方式, 仍然是目前提高地震预报效能最有效的途径。     

中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.     

华北地区强震活动特点研究

华北地区是我国的政治、经济和文化中心,也是我国地震多发地区之一。华北地区历史地震资料记载时间较早且较为连续,是研究我国强震活动的理想试验场。选取第三、第四活动期M≥6.0地震目录作为基础资料研究华北地区强震活动特点。首先探讨华北地区强震活动与活动地块、边界带的关系,然后从时间和空间上分析华北地区强震活动的轮回性阶段及其期幕活动特点,最后计算未来5年华北地区发生下一次M≥6.0地震的累积概率和条件概率。研究结果表明:①华北地区M≥6.0地震活动主要集中在活动地块的边界带,M≥7.0地震则全部发生在活动地块的边界带上,同时华北地区地震应变释放速率与边界带的构造活动速率呈线性相关;②第四活动期各活跃幕的能量释放均低于第三活动期,因此华北地区未来仍可能发生M≥6.0地震;③第三、第四活动期的主体活动区存在显著差异,且第四活动期的强震活动较第三活动期向东迁移;④在2020年年初发生第四活动期闭幕M≥6.0地震的累积概率为80%左右,而在2022年年底前发生M≥6.0地震的条件概率为50%。本研究可为华北地区地震大形势分析和中长期地震危险性预测提供重要参考。     

中国地震局<大陆强震机理与预测>项目学术交流代表团赴美考察

２０００年５月,以《大陆强震机理与预测》项目首席科学家张国民研究员为团长的中国地震局《在陆强震机理与预测》项目学术交流代表团一行８人赴美进行学术交流和访问。代表团在美国期间,先后参观访问了门洛帕克美国地质调查局、加州大学洛杉矶分校、加州理工学院、华盛顿卡内基研究所、美国国家科学基金会和麻省理工学院等单位,并与美方有关专家学者和项目管理人员就有关学术问题科研项目的评审和管理等问题进行了交流和讨论。     

用博弈评分法评估分析中国年度地震危险区的预测效能

自20世纪70年代至今,中国地震局持续召开年度全国地震趋势会商会,对来年中国大陆地区的地震趋势作出综合判断,按照“东部5级、西部6级以上”的目标划定年度地震危险区.因为年度危险区的形状不规则、预测震级不同以及每年发生地震数量有限,难以对其预测效能进行科学、客观的评价,也不利于通过有真正信息增益危险区来积累预测经验.本研究采用新近发展的“博弈评分”(gambling score)方法评估了年度地震危险区预测结果的显著性.博弈评分是利用“参考模型”计算每个危险区预测成功与否的参考概率作为“奖励”标准,根据实际地震对应情况进行加分或减分.采用泊松模型和古登堡/里克特定律作为参考模型,对1990-2003年期间的年度地震危险区的预测效能进行了评估和分析.结果表明,虽然年度预测效能之间的差异较大,但是年度地震危险区预测结果明显优于非均匀泊松模型.这一方面表明年度地震危险区的圈定含有一定的地震前兆信息,得分高的危险区的判定依据将为提高地震预测准确率提供有益信息并积累有效的经验,另一方面也揭示了年度会商结果在前兆观测资料和地震活动背景空间分布知识之间整合的不足,即年度地震危险区的圈定在技术上仍有提高的余地.     

台湾及台湾海峡地震活动对大陆地区的影响

根据已有和近年来补充调查的资料,阐明了台湾及台湾海峡地震对大陆东南沿海地区影响的差异,并通过对以下问题的分析,探讨了其结果在震害防御与历史地震考证方面的意义:①台湾地区的强震频度较高,间隔时间从几年到数十年,但对大陆沿海地带的最大影响烈度仅为Ⅵ度,最大有感半径达1100km,有感地带的宽度大于500km．这些地震在大陆地区可产生数毫米位移的长周期地面运动;②台湾海峡西侧滨海断裂带发生的强震,其频度不如台湾地区高,却因距离大陆较近,最大影响烈度达Ⅷ——Ⅸ度,最大有感半径大于1000km,有感地带的宽度大于400km;③我国东南沿海地带的震害防御策略,宜在着重考虑滨海断裂带强震影响的同时,还要注意台湾地震对工程结构造成的损伤,以及恐震心理引发的哄动社会效应影响;④大陆地区记载到的1517年5月19日地震事件,宜视为台湾地区的强震影响更为妥切．      

A Preliminary Study on the Probabilistic Estimation of Deaths from Future Earthquakes in North China

During the period from 1800 to 1989,the degree of fatalities(?from earthquakes in North China(Lat.34.0°-42.0°N,Long.107.5°-125.0°E)varied exponentially with the frequency of earthquake events(N),namely:N=37.71 exp(-0.72?(E-logD,D:deaths).For the periods from 1988 to 1998 and from 1999 to 2009,the probabilities for earthquakes to cause one thousand or more deaths in North China are estimated to be 0.37 and 0.50,respectively,by using the Gumbel's extreme value theory.     

Study on Short-Term Abnormal Characteristics of Geoelectric and Geomagnetic Data before Strong Earthquakes in the North China Region

INTRODUCTIONStrongearthquakeactivityrepresentsalarge scalecrustaltectonicmovementprocess .Intheprocessofearthquakepreparation ,thedistributionofthegeophysicalparametersintheearthquakepreparationareahasthecharacteroftemporalcontinuityandspatialdependencewithdifferentgeologicalstructures ,andhenceaseismicprecursoryfieldisformed .Affectedbythetectonicstressfieldandthestressfieldinthefocalarea ,theearthresistivityinthesourceanditssurroundingareaswillchangeintheprocessofearthquakepreparation .…     

用小波变换和最小二乘支持向量机方法预测华南地震区年度最大地震

应用小波变换和最小二乘支持向量机（LSSVM）相结合的方法（小波-LSSVM）预测华南地震区年度最大地震。先用小波变换将地震序列分解成不同尺度水平（频率段）的子序列，再用LSSVM方法分别对各子序列建模预测，最后重构各子序列的预测结果并得到最终预测结果。经与周期图方法和LSSVM预测方法比较研究表明：模型输入量中包含地球自转速率变化的小波-LSSVM方法预测效果很好，可以用于华南地区年度最大地震预测研究，且地球自转变化与华南地震时间序列的低频部分（趋势）和高频部分（短期变化）之间存在很强的、互不相同的非线性关系。