Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from land use: creating incentives within greenhouse gas emissions trading systems

Terrestrial carbon sinks and sources were introduced into climate change mitigation related policy relatively late in the design of the architecture of those policies. Much literature addresses how terrestrial sources and sinks differ from emissions from fossil fuel combustion and, hence, is a possible justification for differential treatment of them in policy design. Late introduction in climate policy discussions and perceived differences appear to have resulted in very different policy approaches for sinks versus fossil emission sources. The attempt to differentiate has generated complexity in policy design and likely inefficiency in the operation of these policies. We review these issues and find that the characteristics claimed to apply to sinks apply as well to fossil sources, and differences that do exist are often more a matter of degree than of kind. Because cap-and-trade has gained momentum as the instrument of choice to control fossil emissions, we use as a starting point, how such a cap-and-trade system could be altered to include terrestrial carbon sinks and sources.     

Global and regional trends in greenhouse gas emissions from livestock

Following IPCC guidelines (IPCC 2006), we estimate greenhouse gas emissions related to livestock in 237 countries and 11 livestock categories during the period 1961–2010. We find that in 2010 emissions of methane and nitrous oxide related to livestock worldwide represented approximately 9 % of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Global GHG emissions from livestock increased by 51 % during the analyzed period, mostly due to strong growth of emissions in developing (Non-Annex I) countries (+117 %). In contrast, developed country (Annex I) emissions decreased (?23 %). Beef and dairy cattle are the largest source of livestock emissions (74 % of global livestock emissions). Since developed countries tend to have lower CO₂-equivalent GHG emissions per unit GDP and per quantity of product generated in the livestock sector, the amount of wealth generated per unit GHG emitted from the livestock sector can be increased by improving both livestock farming practices in developing countries and the overall state of economic development. Our results reveal important details of how livestock production and associated GHG emissions have occurred in time and space. Discrepancies with higher tiers, demonstrate the value of more detailed analyses, and discourage over interpretation of smaller-scale trends in the Tier 1 results, but do not undermine the value of global Tier 1 analysis.     

Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from cattle raising in Brazil

The study estimated, for the first time, the greenhouse gas emissions associated with cattle raising in Brazil, focusing on the period from 2003 to 2008 and the three principal sources: 1) portion of deforestation resulting in pasture establishment and subsequent burning of felled vegetation; 2) pasture burning; and 3) bovine enteric fermentation. Deforestation for pasture establishment was only considered for the Amazon and Cerrado. Emissions from pasture burning and enteric fermentation were accounted for the entire country. The consolidated emissions estimate lies between approximately 813 Mt CO₂eq in 2008 (smallest value) and approximately 1,090 Mt CO₂eq in 2003 (greatest value). The total emissions associated with Amazon cattle ranching ranged from 499 to 775 Mt CO₂eq, that of the Cerrado from 229 to 231 Mt CO₂eq, and that of the rest of the country between 84 and 87 Mt CO₂eq. The full set of emissions originating from cattle raising is responsible for approximately half of all Brazilian emissions (estimated to be approximately 1,055 Mt CO₂eq in 2005), even without considering cattle related sources not explicitly estimated in this study, such as energy use for transport and refrigeration along the beef and derivatives supply chain. The potential for reduction of greenhouse gas emissions offered by the Brazilian cattle industry is very high and might constitute Brazil’s most important opportunity for emissions mitigation. The study offers a series of policy recommendations for mitigation that can be implemented by public and private administrators at a low cost relative to other greenhouse gas reduction options.     

Linkage of greenhouse gas emissions trading systems: learning from experience

The last ten years have seen the growth of linkages between many of the world's cap-and-trade systems for GHGs, both directly between systems, and indirectly via connections to credit systems such as the Clean Development Mechanism. If nations have tried to act in their own self-interest, this proliferation of linkages implies that for many nations, the expected benefits of linkage outweighed expected costs. In this article, we draw on the past decade of experience with carbon markets to examine why systems have demonstrated this revealed preference for linking. Linkage is a multi-faceted policy decision that can be used by political jurisdictions to achieve a variety of objectives, and we find qualitative evidence that many economic, political, and strategic factors – ranging from geographic proximity to integrity of emissions reductions – influence the decision to link. We also identify some potentially important effects of linkage, such as loss of control over domestic carbon policies, which do not appear to have deterred real-world decisions to link.

Policy relevance

These findings have implications for the future role that decentralized linkages may play in international climate policy architecture. The Kyoto Protocol has entered what is probably its final commitment period, covering only a small fraction of global GHG emissions. Under the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action, negotiators may now gravitate toward a hybrid system, combining top-down elements for establishing targets with bottom-up elements of pledge-and-review tied to national policies and actions. The incentives for linking these national policies are likely to continue to produce direct connections among regional, national, and sub-national cap-and-trade systems. The growing network of decentralized, direct linkages among these systems may turn out to be a key part of a future hybrid climate policy architecture.     

Conditional probabilistic estimates of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions based on the storylines of the IPCC-SRES scenarios

The conditional probabilistic scenario analysis combines statistical methods of uncertainty analysis at parameter level with storylines which recognize the deep uncertainty that exists for several underlying trends. The model calculations indicate that cumulative 21st century emissions could range from 800 to 2500 GtC in the absence of climate policy. This range originates partly from the underlying storylines, and partly from the probabilistic analysis. Among the most important parameters contributing to the uncertainty range are uncertainty in income growth, population growth, parameters determining energy demand, oil resources and fuel preferences. The contribution of these factors is also scenario-dependent.     

Principles of monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks

Principles and substantiation of a system of monitoring anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks are considered. The basic task of the system is to estimate the anthropogenic contribution to the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and possible climate effect. The major attention is paid to the system of indirect or “computational” monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. A multifunctional information system is described in the context of its application for solving a number of other ecological problems. It can be used as an instrumental basis for estimating ecological efficiency of measures aimed at reducing emissions and increasing greenhouse gas uptake. The effect should be considered in totality for all greenhouse gases and most hazardous pollutants. Monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks includes observations (using modeling) of integral indicators of ecosystems and can be used as part of ecological monitoring (for example, dynamics of soil carbon balance of agroecosystems and forest cenoses). The connection of the monitoring of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and sinks with the satellite monitoring enlarges the possible applications of this information system.     

The influence of political ideology on greenhouse gas emissions

This research tests the casual link from political ideology to national greenhouse gas emissions by utilizing multinational panel data covering 98 countries during the period 1990–2016. Overall, the baseline results and robustness tests show a political divide on national greenhouse gas emissions, whereby compared to right-wing governments, left-wing governments are more likely to exhibit less carbon dioxide emissions. We further explore this topic from the perspectives of energy efficiency and education. Three-stage OLS regressions suggest that leftist parties increase energy efficiency and spend more on secondary education, which lead to less greenhouse gas emissions. We also introduce the interaction between political ideology and economic performance as well as globalization to test the moderating effects of economic performance and globalization. The study further looks into the interaction effects of political ideology and democracies on greenhouse gas emissions by dividing the whole sample into two sub-samples. The results indicate that the ideology effect on greenhouse gas emissions varies among countries with different economic performances or different degrees of political globalization, as well as between democracies and non-democracies.     

Monitoring and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural,forestry and other human activities

Agriculture and forestry are significant sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. A holistic systems approach to estimating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural, forestry and other systems requires that the major inputs, components and outputs of the production system are defined. Fluxes of greenhouse gases in natural systems may be estimated by mathematical modelling of the major biological processes and activities. Field and laboratory experiments and information from satellites provide the raw data on which such models are based. Such an approach can have a significant role in guiding key decision makers and policy analysts. We conclude that management strategies that reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and forestry are likely to be strategies that will also contribute to ecologically sustainable development.     

Implications of alternative metrics for global mitigation costs and greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture

100-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) are used almost universally to compare emissions of greenhouse gases in national inventories and reduction targets. GWPs have been criticised on several grounds, but little work has been done to determine global mitigation costs under alternative physics-based metrics . We used the integrated assessment model MESSAGE to compare emission pathways and abatement costs for fixed and time-dependent variants of the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) with those based on GWPs, for a policy goal of limiting the radiative forcing to a specified level in the year 2100. We find that fixed 100-year GTPs would increase global abatement costs (discounted and aggregated over the 21^st century) under this policy goal by 5–20 % relative to 100-year GWPs, whereas time-varying GTPs would reduce costs by about 5 %. These cost differences are smaller than differences arising from alternative assumptions regarding agricultural mitigation potential and much smaller than those arising from alternative radiative forcing targets. Using the land-use model GLOBIOM, we show that alternative metrics affect food production differently in different world regions depending on regional characteristics of future land-use change to meet growing food demand. We conclude that under scenarios of complete participation, the choice of metric has a limited impact on global abatement costs but could be important for the political economy of regional and sectoral participation in collective mitigation efforts, in particular changing costs and gains over time for agriculture and energy-intensive sectors.     

温室气体排放信息披露经验借鉴与政策建议

温室气体排放信息披露是确保实现温室气体排放总量控制目标和顺利开展碳交易、推动企业碳减排的重要前提和根本保障。研究表明,通过明确法律制度保障、完善信息披露路径、加强监管等措施,可以有效建立温室气体排放信息披露制度。建议在综合考虑国内碳市场信息披露、省级重点企业温室气体排放信息披露、环境信息披露等工作基础上,推动我国温室气体排放信息披露在法律基础、制度框架、重点要素等方面的顶层设计,并加强监管。     

Nutrient density as a metric for comparing greenhouse gas emissions from food production

Dietary Guidelines for many countries recommend that people should eat ‘nutrient dense’ foods, which are foods with a high nutrient to energy ratio; and that people should limit their intake of saturated fat, added salt or added sugar. In addition, consumers and environmentalists increasingly want their food to be produced with a low impact on the environment, including reduced greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE), yet agriculture is a major source of CH₄ and N₂O emissions, as well as producing CO₂ emissions. Current research on GHGE from agriculture does not incorporate the nutritional value of the foods studied. However, the nutritional content of food is important, given the prevalence of malnutrition, including obesity (due to over-consumption of foods high in energy yet low nutritional density), and the negative health impacts they produce. This paper introduces the metric, emissions/unit nutrient density, and compares the results with three other metrics: emissions intensity (t CO₂e/t product), emissions/t protein and emissions/GJ. The food products examined are wheat flour, milk, canola oil, lean lamb, lean beef, untrimmed lamb and untrimmed beef. The metric t CO₂e/unit nutrient density was the preferred metric to use when examining GHGE from food production because it compares different types of products based on their nutritional value, rather than according to singular nutrients such as protein, or specific attributes such as product weight or energy content. Emissions/unit nutrient density has the potential to inform consumer choices regarding foods that have a higher nutritional content relative to the GHGE generated. Further analysis would be useful to develop and expand the use of this metric further.     

Liability rules for international trading of greenhouse gas emissions quotas

To reduce the costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Kyoto protocol, international trades of emissions quotas are allowed. The revenue from the sale of quotas may exceed the sanctions for non-compliance if these penalties are weak or poorly enforced. Under these circumstances emissions trading enables a country to benefit financially through non-compliance. To counter non-compliance due to trading a range of liability proposals have been suggested. Using a simple global model, we analyze the economic and environmental performance of these proposals for the first commitment period. In addition, the proposals are tested for their sensitivity to national circumstances and to market power. We find that penalties are sufficient to deter non-compliance if they are high enough and are effectively enforced. If the non-compliance penalties are weak or poorly enforced, the permanent reserve proposal is best able to ensure compliance by sellers at a cost similar to the competitive market equilibrium. While not sufficient to ensure compliance on their own, eligibility requirements and annual retirement of AAUs equal to actual emissions contribute to compliance at little or no cost. Hence, such provisions could complement other liability proposals.     

Liability rules for international trading of greenhouse gas emissions quotas

Abstract

To reduce the costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in accordance with the Kyoto protocol, international trades of emissions quotas are allowed. The revenue from the sale of quotas may exceed the sanctions for non-compliance if these penalties are weak or poorly enforced. Under these circumstances emissions trading enables a country to benefit financially through non-compliance. To counter non-compliance due to trading a range of liability proposals have been suggested. Using a simple global model, we analyze the economic and environmental performance of these proposals for the first commitment period. In addition, the proposals are tested for their sensitivity to national circumstances and to market power. We find that penalties are sufficient to deter non-compliance if they are high enough and are effectively enforced. If the non-compliance penalties are weak or poorly enforced, the permanent reserve proposal is best able to ensure compliance by sellers at a cost similar to the competitive market equilibrium. While not sufficient to ensure compliance on their own, eligibility requirements and annual retirement of AAUs equal to actual emissions contribute to compliance at little or no cost. Hence, such provisions could complement other liability proposals.     

Methods for exploring management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical grazing systems

Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to result in global climatic changes over the next decades. Means of evaluating and reducing greenhouse gas emissions are being sought. In this study an existing simulation model of a tropical savanna woodland grazing system was adapted to account for greenhouse gas emissions. This approach may be able to be used in identifying ways to assess and limit emissions from other rangeland, agricultural and natural ecosystems.GRASSMAN, an agricultural decision-support model, was modified to include sources, sinks and storages of greenhouse gases in the tropical and sub-tropical savanna woodlands of northern Australia. The modified model was then used to predict the changes in emissions and productivity resulting from changes in stock and burning management in a hypothetical grazing system in tropical northeastern Queensland. The sensitivity of these results to different Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) and emission definitions was then tested.Management options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the tropical grazing system investigated were highly sensitive to the GWPs used, and to the emission definition adopted. A recommendation to reduce emissions by changing burning management would be toreduce fire frequency if both direct and indirect GWPs of CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CO and NO are used in evaluating emissions, but toincrease fire frequency if only direct GWPs of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O are used. The ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from these systems by reducing stocking rates was also sensitive to the GWPs used. In heavily grazed systems, the relatively small reductions in stocking rate needed to reduce emissions significantly should also reduce the degradation of soils and vegetation, thereby improving the sustainability of these enterprises.The simulation studies indicate that it is possible to alter management to maximise beef cattle production per unit greenhouse gases or per unit methane emitted, but that this is also dependent upon the emission definition used. High ratios of liveweight gain per unit net greenhouse gas emission were found in a broadly defined band covering the entire range of stocking rates likely to be used. In contrast, high values of liveweight gain per unit anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission were found only at very low stocking rates that are unlikely to be economically viable.These results suggest that policy initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from tropical grazing systems should be evaluated cautiously until the GWPs have been further developed and the implications of emission definitions more rigorously determined.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries: revisiting the assumptions

The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive—in terms of cost effectiveness—in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime.     

Non-Kyoto radiative forcing in long-run greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios

Climate policies must consider radiative forcing from Kyoto greenhouse gases, as well as other forcing constituents, such as aerosols and tropospheric ozone that result from air pollutants. Non-Kyoto forcing constituents contribute negative, as well as positive forcing, and overall increases in total forcing result in increases in global average temperature. Non-Kyoto forcing modeling is a relatively new component of climate management scenarios. This paper describes and assesses current non-Kyoto radiative forcing modeling within five integrated assessment models. The study finds negative forcing from aerosols masking (offsetting) approximately 25 % of positive forcing in the near-term in reference non-climate policy projections. However, masking is projected to decline rapidly to 5–10 % by 2100 with increasing Kyoto emissions and assumed reductions in air pollution—with the later declining to as much as 50 % and 80 % below today’s levels by 2050 and 2100 respectively. Together they imply declining importance of non-Kyoto forcing over time. There are however significant uncertainties and large differences across models in projected non-Kyoto emissions and forcing. A look into the modeling reveals differences in base conditions, relationships between Kyoto and non-Kyoto emissions, pollution control assumptions, and other fundamental modeling. In addition, under climate policy scenarios, we find air pollution and resulting non-Kyoto forcing reduced to levels below those produced by air pollution policies alone—e.g., China sulfur emissions fall an additional 45–85 % by 2050. None of the models actively manage non-Kyoto forcing for climate implications. Nonetheless, non-Kyoto forcing may be influencing mitigation results, including allowable carbon dioxide emissions, and further evaluation is merited.     

Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC’s greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario literature and SRES, identifies the most vulnerable elements in the communication of SRES. In the communication of GHG emission scenarios through SRES, the weaknesses that have been identified by the authors of this paper are the normative character of climate change assessment, the plausibility of the scenarios, and the risk of simplification of complex messages. The causes of these communicative issues have been identified as the intrinsic difficulties of interdisciplinary science, the uniqueness of the science-policy relation, and the need for a high degree of transparency. This paper suggests improving future communication of complex messages from scientists to their audience by means of clear reasoning when communicating with non-scientists, explicitly normative emission scenarios, and increased stakeholder participation in scenario development. Based on a presentation at the “IIASA-YSSP uncertainty seminars,” 22 July 2004, and the discussions thereafter.     

碳中和愿景下的污水处理厂温室气体排放情景模拟研究

污水处理厂运行过程中大量释放甲烷(CH4)和氧化亚氮(N2O),是重要的人为温室气体排放源.基于2005—2015年统计资料和IPCC核算方法,估算了2005—2015年中国生活污水处理厂CH4和N2O排放,分析了其排放特征和影响因素;依据碳中和愿景设定3种减排情景(低减排、中减排和高减排),并预估了2020—2050...