Status,challenges and pathways to the sustainable use of wild species

The use of wild species is extensive in both high- and low-income countries. At least 50,000 wild species are used by billions of people around the world for food, energy, medicine, material, education or recreation, contributing significantly to efforts to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. However, overexploitation remains a major threat to many wild species. Ensuring and enhancing the sustainability of use of wild species is thus essential for human well-being and biodiversity conservation. Globally, the use of wild species is increasing due to growing human demand and efficiency, but its sustainability varies and depends on the social-ecological contexts in which the use occurs. Multiple environmental and social (including economic) drivers affect the sustainability of use of wild species, posing major current and future challenges. In particular, climate change has already increased the vulnerability of many uses and is expected to increase it further in the coming decades, while global and illegal trades are, in many cases, key drivers of unsustainability. There is no single “silver bullet” policy to address these and other major challenges in the sustainable use of wild species. Rather, effective policies need to integrate inclusive actions at multiple scales that adopt right-based approaches, pay attention to equitable distribution of access and costs and benefits, employ participatory processes, strengthen monitoring programs, build robust customary or government institutions and support context-specific policies, as well as adaptive management.     

Geo-politics and freshwater fish introductions: How the Cold War shaped Europe's fish allodiversity

Activities that manipulate ecosystems to support economic activities provide major introduction pathways for non-native species. As such, substantial differences in the socioeconomic conditions between countries could influence how ecosystems are manipulated and thus impact the composition of their communities of non-native species. Here, we compared the influence of freshwater fish aquaculture production and macro-socioeconomic drivers on the freshwater fish allodiversity of Europe between 1970 and 2009. A divergence in the socio-economic conditions of Europe prevailed during much of the latter half of the 20th Century as a result of the Cold War. For example, GDP and GDP per capita were significantly higher in Western bloc countries compared to the Eastern bloc. In this 39 year period, aquaculture production in Eastern bloc countries was dominated by Asian cyprinid fish whereas in Western bloc countries it was dominated by the North American rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss. Analysis of a European database on introduced fish into the wild from aquaculture revealed that in entirety, there were 279 separate freshwater fish introductions in Europe associated with aquaculture (Eastern bloc 118, Western bloc 161), involving 117 species from 32 families. There was relatively low homogeneity in these introduced fishes between the two blocs; only 28 species were introduced into both. Western bloc countries also had significantly more introduced fishes and more introduction events, and less similarity in the introduced fishes between their countries. Aquaculture production was a significant predictor of the number of non-native freshwater fish across all the countries, although additional factors, especially human population size and GDP per capita, were also significant predictors. Thus, aquaculture has been a strong introduction pressure in Europe and provides a reliable predictor of fish allodiversity.     

Sustaining trajectories towards Sustainability: Dynamics and diversity in UK communal growing activities

Civil society is a critical arena both for exploring Sustainability itself and for sustaining trajectories towards it through innovation, experimentation and debate. Innovations can be mould breaking and can challenge local institutions. Concurrently, initiatives may be fragile due to the development of new working relationships, reliance on voluntary labour and goodwill, and dependence on grant funding. Here we examine different aspects of what it takes to sustain grassroots trajectories for ‘communal growing’, given the pressures that groups and intermediary organisations practicing and supporting this activity experience, and the consequential need to build qualities like ‘resilience’. Attending carefully to the definition of this otherwise slippery concept, a particular focus is given to how contrasting aspects of temporality and agency lead to divergent constructions of ‘resilience’ and strategies for sustaining growing. We draw on fieldwork that explores the practice and support of communal growing in East Sussex, England, and directly associated activities at a national level.We find important interdependencies between communal growing projects and the intermediary organisations supporting them. Additionally there is huge diversity within and between both projects and the organisations that support them, including with respect to the ends to which growing is seen as a means. These ends link growing initiatives – both antagonistically and synergistically – to food, education and health systems. This diversity can be seen positively as: a source of innovation; facilitating the open and bottom up nature of growing; and, enabling the securing of greater financial support for the endeavour. What is less clear is how this plays into framing and configuring communal growing specifically in relation to achieving a more Sustainable and localised food system. We discuss the conceptual and methodological implications of these empirically derived observations with regards future research on grassroots innovations.     

Scaling of the Sea-Breeze Strength with Observations in the Netherlands

In this study we evaluate recently proposed scaling relations for the sea-breeze strength using independent data for a relatively homogeneous area in The Netherlands. We show that several of the scaling relations in the literature incorporate hidden correlation. Furthermore, it appears that the estimate for the sea-breeze strength is better made on the basis of the time-integrated rather than of the instantaneous sensible heat flux. It also turns out that for similar forcing the sea breeze in The Netherlands is about twice as strong as the sea breeze in the Vancouver area of Canada.     

Sounding-derived parameters associated with large hail and tornadoes in the Netherlands

A study is presented focusing on the potential value of parameters derived from radiosonde data or data from numerical atmospheric models for the forecasting of severe weather associated with convective storms. Parameters have been derived from soundings in the proximity of large hail, tornadoes (including tornadoes over water: waterspouts) and thunderstorms in the Netherlands. 66,365 radiosonde soundings from six stations in and around the Netherlands between 1 Dec. 1975 to 31 Aug. 2003 were classified as being associated or not associated with these weather phenomena using observational data from voluntary observers, the Dutch National Meteorological Institute (KNMI) and lightning data from the U.K. Met. Office. It was found that instability as measured by the Lifted Index or CAPE and 0–6 km wind shear independently have considerable skill in distinguishing environments of large hail and of non-hail-producing thunderstorms. It was also found that CAPE released below 3 km above ground level is on average high near waterspouts and weak tornadoes that mostly occur with low shear in the lowest 1 km above the Earth's surface. On the other hand, low-level shear is strong in environments of stronger (F1 and F2) tornadoes and increases with increasing F-scale. This is consistent with the notion that stretching of pre-existing vertical vorticity is the most important mechanism for the formation of weak tornadoes while the tilting of vorticity is more important with stronger tornadoes. The presented results may assist forecasters to assess the likelihood of severe hail or tornadoes.     

Closing the Carbon Budget of a Scots Pine forest in the Netherlands

The aim of this study was to close the carbon budget and reduce uncertainty in annual C balances for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forests in The Netherlands. This was done by comparing estimates of the Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) as assessed by two different methods. The inventory based carbon budgeting method estimated the average NEE for 1997 – 2001 at 202 g C m^–2 yr^–1 (a sink) with a confidence interval of 138 – 271 g C m^–2 yr^–1. The estimate obtained by the eddy covariance method was 295 g C m^–2 yr^–1 on average for the same period, with a confidence interval of 224 – 366 g C m^–2 yr^–1. Uncertainties in the eddy covariance method were mostly related to gap filling of the data. Main uncertainties in the inventory-based method are related to the soil and the root compartment. The difference in NEE as obtained by two independent methods indicates that it is not straightforward to design a sound National System for monitoring and reporting of the total land area and for accounting of changes in forest area under the Kyoto Protocol, and that more effort is required in this field.     

Development of flood exposure in the Netherlands during the 20th and 21st century

Flood risks of deltaic areas increase because of population growth, economic development, land subsidence and climatic changes such as sea-level rise. In this study, we analyze trends in flood exposure by combining spatially explicit historical, present, and future land-use data with detailed information on the maximum flood inundation in the Netherlands. We show that the total amount of urban area that can potentially become inundated due to floods from the sea or main rivers has increased six-fold during the 20th century, and may double again during the 21st century. Moreover, these developments took, and probably will take, place in areas with progressively higher potential inundation depths. Potential flood damage has increased exponentially over the 20th century (16 times) and is expected to continue to increase exponentially (∼ten-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a high economic growth scenario. Flood damages increase more moderately (two- to three-fold by 2100 with respect to 2000) assuming a low growth scenario. The capacity to deal with catastrophic flood losses - expressed as the ratio damage/GDP - will, however, decrease slightly in the low growth scenario (by about 20%). This trend deviates from the historical trend of the 20th century, which shows an increasing capacity to cope with flood damage (almost doubling). Under the high growth scenario the capacity to deal with such losses eventually increases slightly (by about 25%). These findings illustrate that, despite higher projections of potential flood damage, high economic growth scenarios may not necessarily be worse than low growth scenarios in terms of the impact of floods.     

Moisture and heat budgets of the south American monsoon system: climatological aspects

The climatology of the moisture and heat budget equation terms for subareas within the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) region is investigated for the 1958–2014 period considering the distinct phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These budget equations are applied to the data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis project. Sources or sinks of moisture and heat are equation residues, referred to as residue and diabatic terms, respectively. Analyses are done for the Central Amazon Basin (CAM) and Western-Central Brazil (WCB) for three distinct periods, 1958–1976, 1977–1995, and 1996–2014, that correspond to the cold, warm, and undefined PDO phases. The differences among the PDO phases for each term are discussed. The CAM region acts dominantly as a moisture sink and heat source in all months during the three phases. On the other hand, in the WCB region, the monsoon characteristics are better defined, with a moisture sink (source) and a heat source (sink) during the wet (dry) season. The main result of the present analysis is the persistence of SAMS intensification signs in both CAM and WCB areas up to the last analyzed period (1996–2014), which is consistent with intense flooding in the Amazon Basin in 2008/2009, 2012, and 2014.     

The socio-economic impact of sea-level rise on the Netherlands: A study of possible scenarios

This paper describes a simulation study of some of the socio-economic consequences of a rise in sea level on Dutch society. A computer simulation model for the greenhouse problem has been developed, which tries to capture the climate change cause-effect relationship for a combination of greenhouse-gas emissions. The impact of emissions of greenhouse gases on global temperature and sea-level rise can be calculated using the model. Additionally, separate, independent modules have been implemented in order to quantify the socio-economic consequences for the Netherlands. Four consistent sets of scenarios have been developed, based on differences in economic growth, energy use, international environmental measures, etc. On the basis of these scenarios estimates are made of the costs of coastal defence and water management in the Netherlands as a result of adaptation to the impacts of sea-level rise.     

The effectiveness of communicative tools in addressing barriers to municipal climate change adaptation: lessons from the Netherlands

Little research has been done on the effectiveness of communicative tools for climate change adaptation. Filling this knowledge gap is relevant, as many national governments rely on communicative tools to raise the awareness and understanding of climate impacts, and to stimulate adaptation action by local governments. To address this knowledge gap, this study focuses on the effectiveness of communicative tools in addressing key municipal barriers to climate change adaptation, by conducting a large N-size empirical study in the Netherlands. This study explores the effectiveness of these tools in theory, by checking whether their goals match the perceived barriers to municipal climate change adaptation, and the effectiveness in practice by analysing whether they are used and perceived as useful. Document analyses have clarified the assumptions underlying the tools. By conducting semi-structured interviews with 84 municipalities the key barriers to climate change adaptation and the use and usefulness of the tools in practice were analysed. The research revealed that the key barriers experienced by municipalities are a lack of urgency, a lack of knowledge of risks and measures, and limited capacity, the first being the primary one. Communicative tools, while being effective in theory, are not sufficiently effective in practice in addressing the key barriers. Municipalities that are not experiencing a sense of urgency to take on adaptation planning are not likely to be activated by the tools. Advanced municipalities need more sophisticated tools. This article concludes with some suggestions to improve the effectiveness of communicative tools.

Key policy insights

• Although effective in theory in addressing key barriers to municipal adaptation planning, the effectiveness in practice of communicative tools is limited.

• To increase their effectiveness in practice, municipalities’ awareness of the existence of the communicative tools needs to be raised.

• Advanced municipalities need more sophisticated tools that are context-specific and address a wide range of climate risks.

• The effectiveness of communicative tools can be improved by embedding them in a wider mix of policy instruments.

     

Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

In many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and prioritisation of adaptation options. Options are selected and identified and discussed by stakeholders on the basis of a sectoral approach, and assessed with respect to their importance, urgency and other characteristics by experts. The preliminary quantitative assessment identifies incremental costs and benefits of adaptation options. Priority ranking based on a weighted sum of criteria reveals that in the Netherlands integrated nature and water management and risk based policies rank high, followed by policies aiming at ‘climate proof’ housing and infrastructure.     

大型户外空旷区域的雷击风险评估研究

应用IEC的雷击风险管理标准中雷击风险计算和参数取值方法,对大型户外空旷区域存在雷击风险进行分析,推导出大型户外空旷区域雷击风险评估的定量计算公式,确定了各计算参数的取值,并举例说明了大型户外空旷区域雷击风险评估的具体计算方法。     

佳木斯市气侯资源在淡水池塘养殖中的应用及养鱼产量预报方程

通过与佳木斯市水产技术推广站的合作,对淡水养殖中气象指标进行分析,选用气象因子对佳木斯市池塘淡水养鱼建立预报产量模式,达到充分利用气侯资源的目的。     

Some aspects of the interpretation of spectra in meteorology

The meaningfulness of spectral presentations, and of spectral peaks in particular, is considered by the use of simple examples. First, we derive analytically the spectra of sinusoidal finite-length waves and subject the spectra to several area-conserving transformations. The peak of the logarithmic spectrum (power density per unit natural logarithm of frequency) is shown to be the most appropriate for defining the scales (or frequencies) of the waves. The advantage of the logarithmic spectrum becomes even more apparent when a wave consisting of the positive part of a sine wave is considered. In that case, the conventional frequency presentation is misleading because in addition to the erroneous location of the spectral peak, an increase of power density towards low frequencies occurs, giving the spectra the appearance of red noise. For the same wave, it is shown that the logarithmic spectrum has a single peak at the position corresponding with the actual wave frequency.