Searching for core area growth

Until recently the world economy was focused on four core areas: in western Europe, North America, the Soviet Union, and Japan. Beyond them was the periphery. The economic growth of the periphery depended on core-periphery trade. Since the existing core areas were too few to absorb the periphery's potential production, much of the periphery was producing below capacity. Currently more core areas are coming into existence in Brazil, South Korea, and India. They promote economic development by enlarging the market for peripheral products, drawing resources from the remaining periphery, and providing competition to existing core areas. Latent potentials for core area growth exist in the Near East and southern Africa, but their realization presumes political settlements. The west European core area has expanded onto the Iberian Peninsula and may expand soon beyond the erstwhile Iron Curtain.     

新亚欧大陆桥中国段沿线旅游资源特征

新亚欧大陆桥中国段地处陇海、兰新铁路沿线，是我国中部金腰带地区。其东段黄河流域是中华民族的摇篮、东方文明的窗口；西段“丝绸之路”是连接东、西方文化、西方游客向往的国际黄金旅游热线。沿线十省、区的旅游资源管理类型比率大、价值高。其中人文旅游资源类型多、分布集中，自然旅游资源丰富、开发潜力大。沿线旅游业的发展具有得天独厚的条件，将成为沿线经贸的带头和支柱产业     

The role of choke points in the ocean context

Choke points are narrow international waterways where three characteristics are present. The waterway should be narrow and capable of being closed off to both commercial and military snipping. There should be no readily available maritime route to utilize in the event of closure. Finally, the choke point should be of considerable significance to at least several States. This article identifies seven “primary” choke points which seem to satisfy these criteria. These are Gibraltar, Bab el Mandeb, Hormuz, the Danish and Turkish Straits, and the Suez and Panama Canals. It also identifies eleven “secondary” choke points, where at least one of the reouired characteristics is missing. The eleven include Dover, Bering and Magellan Straits, as well as Malacca-Singapore and a number of others in the Western Pacific. Turning to a consideration of the status of choke points in a Post-Cold War era, the article notes four basic assumptions: (1) the intense military rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union will be reduced in coming years; (2) for many countries marine-related environmental concerns may be increasing considerably; (3) as the Cold War recedes, regional contests and confrontations will grow more intense; and (4) the overall densities of water-borne traffic will undergo change as the relative economic growth of regional centers changes. The article then considers the potential impact of these trends on the future role of choke points.     

The Baltic press and the environment: A study of the coverage of environmental problems in Estonian and Latvian newspapers 1992–1993

For most people, both in the West and the former Soviet empire, the mass media is an important source of information about the environment, but little has been known about the ways in which environmental issues are treated in the mass media in the former communist states of East Europe. In this paper, articles dealing with environmental issues in the Estonian and Latvian press during 1992 and 1993 were analysed, and the type of problems dealt with in the articles, the sources of information used and the locations of the places referred to were examined. The results of this study show that a majority of the articles in the Estonian and Latvian press were concerned with environmental issues that were concentrated in a few places within these countries, and that when international issues were treated, these were localized to nearby European countries. Despite the existence of problems with air pollution, especially in the north-east of Estonia, these were seldom mentioned in the press. The main sources of information used in the articles were the authorities.     

The Russian military system continues to dominate patterns of international trade and finance

There is a mistaken perception of a growing trade with Russia and an increase in the amount of investment available for Western businessmen in the Federation. This article argues that in fact, there is no room for real investment in the Russian Federation, as defined in Western terms and that the nature of Russian industrial organisation is such that the military dictates the nature of all meaningful industrial production, as well as having the pick of the raw materials and the workforce. There is a growing disillusion with Western methods of management and also this has spread to treaty commitments (such as the Conventional Forces Europe (CFE)) and any attempt to exercise military restraint, because of the mockery of the Western press when such measures have been taken, as in Chechnia. Overall, the need the West has to make itself believe that the Russian Federation is rapidly becoming a new trading partner in a safer international system is fundamentally mistaken. Russia and America have the ability, should they wish or have to, to marginalise a newly united Europe. Furthermore, Russia has the ability to dominate such a European federation and to claim the status of a Regional Superpower. Without America there would be no security organisation that could resist such a claim. Russia is not as far along the road to democracy as hard-pressed Western governments need to claim, so that they may cut defence expenditure and it is dangerous to pretend that the Russian Federation is capable of exporting much more than aggression. The West may well be spending money which it claims is part of planned investment in Russia, to simply buy off the aggressor state Russia has rapidly become, for another few months.     

Croatia in the continental traffic network of Europe

Croatia is located on the southeastern edge of Central Europe (Ruppert 1995), between the navigable Danube River and the Adriatic Sea, so that participates not only in continental traffic, but in the maritime and river traffic of Europe as well.Although the transit position of Croatia is very favorable, transportation itself has unfortunately not been developed in accordance with these advantages. This is a result of the social-economic, especially political, development of the region in the course of its history. Unfortunately, politics also influences the selection of transit routes in this part of Europe today. With the break-up of socialist states, particularly the former Yugoslavia, new states have appeared which are seeking their place in the European traffic network. Because of the momentarily uncertain political circumstances, the construction of some transit routes in Croatia have not been foreseen in international developmental plans for continental transit, despite the fact that they would be logically expected given the advantages of their position.     

Large-scale water transfers in the USSR

In order to counter water shortages in the agricultural regions along the lower Volga and in Kazakhstan and Central Asia and to alleviate falling water levels in southern seas, the Soviet Union proposes to transfer substantial quantities of water south from its northern Arctic-flowing rivers. We describe the background to these proposals, the need for greater agricultural production in the Soviet Union, current irrigation practice, and the development of schemes for large-scale water transfers. We discuss the Soviet philosophy of the transformation of nature, the problems encountered in implementing irrigation schemes, and the likely time scale of larger water transfers. The Soviet authorities consider the transfers essential. Even if the efficiency of existing irrigation schemes is improved, demand will surpass supply in many southern agricultural regions within the next 10 to 15 years. Work is to proceed on the first of the second, the Siberian scheme, is unlikely to be taken until any problems encountered in the implementation of the European scheme are assessed. Finally, we consider the potential impact of the diversions. There will certainly be local ecological and environmental consequences and it is considered that the net impact will, on balance, be adverse. There is also concern that the diversion of water away from higher latitudes may affect the Arctic ice cover and, possibly, global climate.     

Changing trade patterns of the West Pacific

In the enormous expansion of world trade in the quarter century after 1950, the share generated by countries of the Western Pacific remained remarkably constant. This relationship primarily reflected the rise of Japan as a major force in the international economy. Whereas Japan's own trade grew more widely oriented and the Western Pacific margins relatively less important as trading partners than before WW II, to the states of the Western Pacific Japan's status both as a supplier of imports and as an export market greatly enlarged —only rarely is Japan not the leading trading partner. The Japanese strategy of export-led growth has been replicated by South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore. All of these countries, as well as Japan itself, depend overwhelmingly on imports for their raw materials and energy supplies. Elsewhere trade patterns have been greatly modified by a rising spirit of nationalism that has emphasized development of manufacturing industries in Australia and New Zealand no less than in the states of SE Asia.     

Trade without specialization?

During the post-World War II period international trade has grown mostly among the industrial countries, and especially among the charter members of the European Coal and Steel Community and the Common Market. The growth of this trade has not been associated with the kind of specialization postulated by the classical theory of international trade. Rather, the industrial structures of the Common Market members were becoming more similar. In the case of West Germany, an ever increasing share of her foreign trade came to consist of an exchange of the same type of commodities. This resulted partly from an international specialization in competitive, but not identical goods—as in the passenger car industry. In many cases, however, the goods exchanged were perfect substitutes for each other—as coals for electric power stations, gasolines differing only in brand name, or surplus wheat received from France and exported by West Germany to countries outside the Common Market. Explanations of trade flows among industrial countries based solely on classical trade theory are becoming increasingly unrealistic and irrelevant.     

Mineral Atlas of the World

In 1997 the mineral resources of Europe and neighbouring countries were presented as a printed map and a book of exhaustive information and references. This was the first published map inventory of mineral deposits from all parts of the formerly politically divided Europe (East and West), measured and evaluated according to identical geological and mining standards.     

全球碳酸锂贸易格局与供应危机传播研究

随着新能源产业的快速发展, 全球碳酸锂贸易量逐渐增长, 但其出口集中于少数国家, 这意味着全球碳酸锂供应存在一定的风险。为了深入了解全球碳酸锂贸易格局演变、供应危机传播路径及影响, 本文构建了2000—2021年全球碳酸锂贸易网络和级联失效模型, 概述了主要出口国贸易流向和贸易格局演变过程, 并模拟了不同供应危机来源的雪崩规模、传播路径及其影响。我们得到: (1)20多年来全球碳酸锂贸易集中度逐渐增加, 出口前三位国家保持稳定, 而主要进口大国变化明显, 贸易格局已由南美供应全球转变为南美供应东亚; (2)碳酸锂贸易供应危机的影响范围逐渐扩大, 间接传播逐渐占据主导地位; (3)智利供应危机对中日韩的影响程度逐渐扩大, 但对欧洲的影响时间最长; 阿根廷和中国的雪崩规模在上升、传播次数增加, 而美国则相反。本文将贸易格局演变与危机传播结合, 明确了全球碳酸锂主要贸易国智利、阿根廷、中国、德国等作为供应危机来源的影响程度及其传播路径。以上分析结果将有利于维护全球碳酸锂贸易稳定和主要贸易国采取应对策略缓解供应危机。     

Changes and patterns of origin regions of international tourism

The dramatic political and economic changes in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East during the early 1990s have had a dramatic impact on international tourism. Between 1974 and 1990 there have been significant shifts in international tourist originations. The purpose of this paper is to describe and analyze the changing patterns and to compare the two time periods. A key component of the study is the construction of a Population-Adjusted Travel Index which assesses the capability of a country to generate tourists relative to population characteristics. Findings indicate that Europe is still the leader in trips generated, even though the proportion from this region is declining over time. Asian countries exhibited the most marked improvement due primarily to the tremendous economic expansion taking place on the Pacific Rim. In contrast countries of the Middle East have declined in importance relative to international tourism. This is due to political and economic instability in the region.     

当代世界的矿产资源

论述了最近５０年来世界矿产资源供求关系的变化和现状,着重讨论了独联体国家、北美地区西欧国家、中欧和东欧国家、日本、澳大利亚和南非共和国、欧佩克国家的矿产资源情况。俄罗斯仍是矿产资源大国,但矿山开采工业每况愈下,许多矿种没有清楚的探明储量。独联体一些国家某些矿种储量大,但没有维持经济正常发展的其它矿种。美国的某些矿种储量大,但其它矿种不足,例如石油、天然气、煤、铝、铜、铅、锌、锡、镍、钴、钨等需求量     

Agriculture in Eastern Europe: Communism, the transition and the future

The paper summarises the East European experience with socialist agriculture and notes that while production often failed to meet plan targets (thereby giving the impression of a sector in crisis), there was steady growth based on substantial investments in buildings, machinery, fertilisers and irrigation systems which provided food for the population at affordable prices. The increased spending power of higher salaries during the 1970s and 1980s also drew a positive response from agriculture in the context of significant reforms which, unintentionally, contributed to the demise of the communist system in 1988–1990. Transition to a market economy has cast agriculture into a state of great uncertainty through restitution and the end of price controls, combined with the disruption of trade contacts with the Former Soviet Union. Falling real wages have reduced demand while the overtures being made to the European Union (with its substantial food surpluses) suggest that reduced agricultural output may be a permanent reality. In this case the thrust of rural development will have to give more attention to the quality of the environment and the provision of alternative employments for country dwellers. It remains to be seen how far small family holdings can be maintained in the context of farm diversification and pluriactivity.     

Maeotian mammalian localities of Eastern Paratethys: Magnetochronology and position in European continental scales

The Maeotian of Eastern Paratethys corresponds to the interval of the magnetochronological scale from the base of the subchron C4Ar2n to upper parts of the Chron C4n (9.6–7.5 Ma). Fission-track dates of Maeotian deposits are in general agreement with paleomagnetic chronology. In the continental stratigraphic scale of Western Europe this interval corresponds to zones MN10 (save the lowermost parts), MN11, and MN12 (upper part). Taking into account age estimates of MN zones boundaries established in Western Europe, the East European mammalian localities of Ukraine and Moldova can be stratified as follows: MN10, Raspopeni, Grebeniki, Novaya Emetovka 1, ?lower bed of Ciobruci; MN11, Novaya Emetovka 2; MN12, Cimislia, Ciobruci upper bed, Cherevichnoe, Tudorovo, Dzedzvtakhevi, and sites in the lower Pontian deposits. The faunal criteria used to distinguish MN zones in Western Europe cannot be completely applied to sites of the Eastern Paratethys because of paleozoogeographic distinctions between West and East European provinces. Specific criteria of zone boundaries definitions should be developed for the East European province.     

分析测试标准方法目录数据库检索系统

应用dBASEⅢ数据库建成了分析测试标准方法目录数据库检索系统。数据库内已录入九个国家及组织最新发布的有关地质、冶金、煤炭、环保、建材及水分析等方面的分析测试标准4000多个,并已将库内所有标准以分类号及标准号顺序打印装订成分析测试标准检索手册。本数据库的建成为有关部门获得最新的标准情报提供了工具。     

Indexation and Normalization Modeling of Natural Gas Endowment

A novel modeling method is presented for indexing and normalizing natural gas endowments of petroleum provinces. The approach is demonstrated with data from Canada, the Unites States, and Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. A variable shape distribution model (VSD) is used to fit the conventional natural gas endowment published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) for 29 provinces in LAC countries and 85 provinces in Canada and the United States. These data are indexed and normalized to generate curves showing number of provinces versus normalized endowments. Results are compared with normalized endowments from provinces in other regions around the world, including Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, North Africa, and the former Soviet Union (FSU). The comparison gives the method predictive power for estimating the natural gas endowment, particularly in LAC provinces that at present have little exploration activity. Of particular importance is the fact that all the curves of the various regions display a generally concave pattern throughout. The exception is the LAC curve, which displays the shape of an inverted S and has a distinct convex pattern at the largest gas endowment volumes. This comparison suggests there is potentially a large volume of natural gas in the region that has not been considered in previous studies.     

A note on product differentiation and locational protection

This paper critically examines Steed's recent attempt to attribute dynamic product differentiation with a locationally protective function in the trade in high-cost clothing between the developed countries of Western Europe. An alternative explanation is offered which explains the distance restriction on trade in terms of the high market uncertainty in selling high-cost clothing, which restricts the size of firm and therefore its ability to export on a large scale. Product differentiation remains as a factor with trade expansionary rather than trade restricting characteristics.     

穿越东非大裂谷工程地质与线路比选分析——以内罗毕—马拉巴铁路为例

内罗毕-马拉巴铁路工程是东非"北方走廊"的重要组成部分,是非洲内陆国家发展经济的主干线。铁路线路工程穿越的东非大裂谷,地质复杂、火山地貌、断裂带和拉张裂缝等不良地质极为发育,而东非大裂谷铁路工程建设的研究资料十分匮乏。为了研究穿越东非大裂谷的铁路线路,本文首先介绍了东非大裂谷地形、地貌、裂谷的发育机理、区域断裂分布,然后以铁路沿线经济控制点为主轴,制定了穿越东非大裂谷铁路线路3大通道。分别对线路3大通道穿越的地形、地貌比选,穿越的地层、断裂和地裂缝比选,穿越地震、火山发育比选以及穿越的不良地质灾害比选,最后比选各线路通道的投资以及优、缺点,最终推荐南线通道方案。该线路方案得到肯尼亚政府的肯定和采纳。目前内马铁路正试运营,实践表明内马铁路裂谷段选线是较为成功的,可为同类工程提供借鉴。     

Estimation of the oil-and-gas potential of sedimentary depressions in the Far East and West Siberia based on gravimetry and geothermy data

The results of geodensity, geothermal, and paleotectonic modeling of some sedimentary depressions in the Far East region and central West Siberia are interpreted from a petroleum-geological standpoint. The prospects of the possibly oil-and-gas-bearing Paleogene and Upper Cretaceous rock complexes in the Lunsk, Makarovsk, and Aniva troughs, West Sakhalin uplift, and Middle Amur intermontane depression are estimated. Petroleum accumulation zones in the preplate complex are forecasted. Localization of Jurassic oil generation centers is defined at a new large oil field in the central West Siberian plate (West Siberian plate). Experience in petroleum geology modeling for structures of different tectonic patterns, lithologies, and rock ages makes it possible to recommend the adopted methodical approach and technology of gravimetric and geothermal interpretation as universal and efficient methods.