Multiple-point geostatistical simulation of dykes: application at Sungun porphyry copper system,Iran

Variogram-based methods are not capable of capturing high (>2) order statistics since the variogram measures the relationship between two points at a time only. Multiple-point geostatistics (MPS) has brought new insights into many geological modeling problems. The application of MPS methods has been well documented in realizing complex geological patterns. These methods have often been used in reservoir characterization since their advent in recent decades. The frequent non-linear behaviors of geologic continuity are not limited to reservoirs, but mineral deposits bear complicated formations in many cases. Relying on the power of MPS methods and considering the complexity of geological scenarios in mineral deposits, we have applied MPS in the modeling of mineral deposits. A training image (TI) is produced using geological data from upper horizons of a porphyry copper ore deposit which have been mined out during the previous mining operations. In this study, the SNESIM algorithm has been used. A number of realizations are produced using this multiple-point geostatistical method. Extensive validation steps are performed considering the TI as the reference model. These validations first show that the TI is representative for the domain under study and also illustrates some degrees of similarity between the TI and the realizations. Despite simplifications made to the problem, the application of MPS in mineral deposit modeling still faces many challenges.     

Ellipsoidal Neumann geodetic boundary-value problem based on surface gravity disturbances: case study of Iran

An ellipsoidal Neumann type geodetic boundary-value problem (GBVP) for the computation of disturbing potential on the surface of the Earth based on the surface gravity disturbance as the boundary data is formulated. The solution methodology of the GBVP can be algorithmically summarized as follows: (i) using global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) coordinates of the gravity stations, the surface gravity disturbances are generated as the boundary data. (ii) Applying the deflection correction to the gravity disturbances to arrive at the derivative of the surface disturbing potential along the ellipsoidal normal. (iii) Removing the low frequencies part of the gravity field using harmonic expansion to degree and order 110. (iv) Using the short wavelength part of the corrected gravity disturbances derived in the previous section as the boundary data within the constructed GBVP to derive the short wavelength disturbing potential over the Earth surface. (v) The computed shortwave length signals of disturbing potentials are converted to disturbing potential values by restoring the removed effects.     

Assessment of the climate change impacts on flood frequency (case study: Bazoft Basin,Iran)

The present study attempts to investigate potential impacts of climate change on floods frequency in Bazoft Basin which is located in central part of Iran. A combination of four general circulation models is used through a weighting approach to assess uncertainty in the climate projections. LARS-WG model is applied to downscale large scale atmospheric data to local stations. The resulting data is in turn used as input of the hydrological model Water and Energy Transfer between Soil, plants and atmosphere (WetSpa) to simulate runoff for present (1971–2000), near future (2020–2049) and far future (2071–2100) conditions. Results demonstrate good performance of both WetSpa and LARS-WG models. In addition in this paper instantaneous peak flow (IPF) is estimated using some empirical equations including Fuller, Sangal and Fill–Steiner methods. Comparison of estimated and observed IPF shows that Fill–Steiner is better than other methods. Then different probability distribution functions are fit to IPF series. Results of flood frequency analysis indicate that Pearson III is the best distribution fitted to IPF data. It is also indicated that flood magnitude will decrease in future for all return periods.     

Application of wavelets to analysis and simulation of earthquake motions

A method of applying wavelet transform to earthquake motion analysis is developed from the viewpoint of energy input structures, in which relationships between wavelet coefficients and energy input, namely energy principles in wavelet analysis are derived. By using the principles, time–frequency characteristics of the 1995 Hyogoken-Nanbu earthquake ground motions are analysed and time histories of energy input for various ranges of frequencies and epicentral distances are identified. Furthermore, a technique to simulate earthquake ground accelerations by wavelet inverse transform is developed on the condition that target time-frequency characteristics are specified. Structural responses to the simulated accelerations are compared with the target time–frequency characteristics, which shows satisfactory correlations between wavelet coefficients and energy responses in both time and frequency domains. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于网格的地震模拟工作流调度

网格为地震模拟等大规模工作流应用提供了强大的计算能力,如何保障此类应用的软实时性要求是工作流调度问题的一个挑战.利用排队模型来描述网格资源的动态负载压力,提出了评估工作流健壮性量化指标及其计算方法.基于DAG图转换得出的任务执行优先级,根据最大健壮性优先的思想,确定了执行工作流子任务的候选资源;将工作流全局截止时间划分问题描述为一个约束下的非线性规划问题并通过已有方法求解该问题,提出了工作流全局截止时间动态划分方法;最后,提出了一种健壮性增强的地震模拟工作流调度算法RESAESW.仿真实验采用实际地震模拟工作流应用和实际系统数据来验证提出算法的性能表现,实验结果表明本文算法在网格环境的自适应性和地震模拟工作流应用的截止时间要求方面优于其他两个实际网格系统中的调度算法.     

Static stress changes as a triggering mechanism of a shallow earthquake: case study of the 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake

The role of static stress changes in triggering an earthquake has long been debated in the fields of geophysics and fault mechanics. Valuable data sets for the study of static triggering were provided within the 1-year period following the devastating 1999 Chi-Chi (Taiwan) earthquake (M_W=7.6), during which more than 20,000 aftershocks occurred. In this study, stress waves generated by the Chi-Chi earthquake were calculated using a source rupture model in conjunction with a layered elastic model. Static (permanent) stress changes were extracted from the long-period offsets in the stressgrams. Correlations between the calculated stress changes and seismicity were analyzed at different depths and over varying time intervals to ascertain the impact effects of stress changes on triggering aftershocks. Correlations between prior seismicity rates and static stress changes imposed by the Chi-Chi event were low, while correlations between late seismicity rates and static stress changes were much higher. This indicates that static stress changes did affect the occurrence of the Chi-Chi aftershock sequence. The percentage of early aftershocks at shallow depths (0-10 km) in static stress-enhanced areas within 2 weeks of the main shock was high but decreased considerably at greater depths (>10 km) and over longer time periods. It is concluded that static stress changes at depths of 0-10 km played a major role in triggering crustal aftershocks, especially those that occurred within 2 weeks of the main shock. In the deeper crust, static stress changes may have been modified by viscous flow, and at later times, perturbed by earlier, larger aftershocks. Although the correlations between seismicity rate changes and static stress changes are imperfect, a region that was anti-triggered is detected when these two results are compared. Static stress changes are presumably not the only aftershock triggering mechanism, but they definitively play a major role in triggering shallow aftershocks.     

Site responses based on ambient vibrations and earthquake data: a case study from the meizoseismal area of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake

The 2001 Mw 7.6 earthquake sourced in the Kachchh rift of northwest India led to extensive damage in the city of Bhuj, located ~70 km southwest of its epicenter. The building stock of this densely populated city was a mix of modern, single, and multistoried structures as well as traditional and non-engineered abodes, most of which were not designed to withstand severe shaking effects. Although there was extensive liquefaction and ground failure in the meizoseismal area, they were not observed in Bhuj, but the damage was severe here. In this study, we apply horizontal to vertical spectral ratio method to ambient vibrations (HVSR-AV) to obtain fundamental resonance frequency (f0) and H/V peak amplitude (A0) to examine if site response had any significant role in the observed damage. The patterns of H/V curves as well as spatial distributions of f0 (0.6–1.4 Hz) and A0 (1.5–4.4) suggest absence of any strong impedance contrast within the subsurface. Similar results obtained for ambient vibrations and earthquake signals suggest the efficacy of the HVSR-AV method as most useful for regions of low-level seismicity. The weathered sandstone that is generally exposed in the city represents the resonating layer whose thickness is approximately estimated as ~66–155 m, based on 1D assumption. The current set of available data precludes any quantitative modeling, but our preliminary inference is that site effects were not significant during the 2001 earthquake damage observed in Bhuj.     

基于时间相依地震活动性模型的地震时间序列模拟

模拟地震时间序列在地震危险性分析和地震灾害预测等领域中具有重要作用,地震活动性模型是模拟地震序列的重要理论基础.本文以时间相依地震活动性模型为理论模型,系统梳理了现有时间相依地震活动性模型理论与方法,研究了断层（震源）上最新地震发生时间已知、未知以及地震历史开放间隔已知三种情况下地震发生概率的计算方法,分析了地震复发间隔的变异系数对时间相依地震发生概率的影响.研究了基于布朗模型的特征地震准周期发生的物理原理,建立了时间相依地震时间序列的模拟方法.研究结果表明,在地震离逝时间较长的情况下,基于时间相依地震活动性模型计算的地震发生概率要显著大于泊松模型;在地震历史开放时间已知情况下,计算的地震发生概率要高于地震离逝时间未知的情况.地震复发间隔的变异系数越小,模拟的地震时间序列越呈现周期性.本文研究结果可提高长期地震概率预测水平,模拟的具有时间相依特征的地震时间序列可用于地震预测、概率地震危险性分析以及地震灾害预测等领域.

     

Linking ground motion measurements and macroseismic observations in France: a case study based on accelerometric and macroseismic databases

Comparison between accelerometric and macroseismic observations is made for three M _w?=?4.5 earthquakes, which occurred in north-eastern France and south-western Germany in 2003 and 2004. Scalar and spectral instrumental parameters are processed from the accelerometric data recorded by nine accelerometric stations located between 29 and 180 km from the epicentres. Macroseismic data are based on French Internet reports. In addition to the single questionnaire intensity, analysis of the internal correlation between the encoded answers highlights four predominant fields of questions bearing different physical meanings: (1) “vibratory motions of small objects”, (2) “displacement and fall of objects”, (3) “acoustic noise” and (4) “personal feelings”. Best correlations between macroseismic and instrumental observations are obtained when the macroseismic parameters are averaged over 10-km-radius circles around each station. Macroseismic intensities predicted by published peak ground velocity (PGV)–intensity relationships agree with our observed intensities, contrary to those based on peak ground acceleration (PGA). Correlation between the macroseismic and instrumental data for intensities between II and V (EMS-98) is better for PGV than for PGA. Correlation with the response spectra exhibits clear frequency dependence for all macroseismic parameters. Horizontal and vertical components are significantly correlated with the macroseismic parameters between 1 and 10 Hz, a range corresponding to both natural frequencies of most buildings and high energy content in the seismic ground motion. Between 10 and 25 Hz, a clear lack of correlation between macroseismic and instrumental observations exists. It could be due to a combination of the decrease in the energy signal above 10 Hz, a high level of anthropogenic noise and an increase in variability in soil conditions. Above 25 Hz, the correlation coefficients between the acceleration response spectra and the macroseismic parameters are close to the PGA correlation level.     

基于震例和决策模型的救灾事项时序研究

地震应急成败的关键在于能否在有限时间的约束条件下,制定出科学合理的决策,并付诸及时有效的实施,政府可以根据地震灾情的特点合理安排救灾,最大程度减少人员伤亡和经济损失。本文就不同区域紧急救助阶段的地震救灾事项的时序性做了简浅的研究,在大量地震震例和应急预案研究的基础上,总结震后政府应做必要的救灾的措施,根据影响地震应急的不同因素在不同条件下的权重,对救灾事项进行重要性、时序性排列,建立应急事项决策模型。     

Integration of SEM/WDX elemental mapping and micromorphology to determine mineralogical traits of peat soils(case study:Northern Iran)

We explored the potential use of combining wavelength-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy(WDX) and micromorphology of thin sections to identify minerals in peat soils. Peat soil minerals from three peats and swamps across Golestan Province in northern Iran were first characterized by micromorphological studies. Soils were composed mainly of quartz, muscovite, biotite, pyroxene,sericitized Fe-nodules, and iron-rich garnet. In addition,micromorphological results indicated that Galougah Coastal Swamp sections contained some inorganic residue with biological origin including oyster and limpet, which may be related to the swamp's location near Gorgan Gulf.In order to determine mineralogical properties of samples,twelve unknown grains were chosen for elemental concentration map studies. Quartz, garnet, ilmenite, calcite,and pyroxene in Suteh samples; epidote and Fe-nodule in Ghaleh-Ghafeh Peat Swamp; and barite, phyllosilicates,and calcite in Galougah were identified by WDX mapping of Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, C, Ba, S, and Ti. Composition of the oysters' body was also analyzed by WDX for Si, Ca, Fe,and C. The results indicated that most of the minerals in all sections likely formed through weathering, inheriting their composition from the parent rock. This research suggests that merging micromorphology and SEM/WDX image techniques can be useful in confirming the presence of mineral particles in soil science.     

基于Earthworm的地震预警系统研究进展?以伊比利亚西南部为例

本研究的主要目的是基于该区域现有的实时宽频带台站,研究地震预警系统（earthquake early warning system,EEWS）对潜在破坏性地震发出警告的可行性。研究区位于伊比利亚半岛（Iberian Peninsula）西南部的圣维森特角（Cape San Vicente,SV）和加的斯湾（Gulf of Cádiz,GC）。该区域历史地震有1755年里斯本（Lisbon）M_w8.5地震和1969年圣维森特角M_w7.8地震。本研究阐明了基于美国地质调查局（U.S. Geological Survey,USGS）的Earthworm工具,及由西班牙加泰罗尼亚地质制图研究所（Institut Cartogràfici Geològicde Catalunya,ICGC）进一步研究出的地震预警系统的设计、配置和产出结果。系统的主要功能是实时数据采集、处理（利用预先估算的峰值位移P_d和P波信号的卓越周期τ_c进行P波拾取、地震事件监测、地震震源定位和震级估算）、数据归档和地震预警发布。系统在完成一些模拟实验并获得最佳配置后进行运行。在运行的第一年内,该区域发生了一次有感地震。与国家地理研究所（Instituto Geográfico Nacional,IGN）地震目录相比较,定位和震级结果都相当好。对于大部分区域的预警时间都能达到几十秒,对于葡萄牙和西班牙南部沿海大部分区域来说,足以减轻由GC和SV地震所带来的损害。此系统的初步结果表明,该系统能可靠地、有效地用于伊比利亚西南部地区的可能性。      

Heuristic search strategy based on probabilistic and geostatistical simulation approach for simultaneous identification of groundwater contaminant source and simulation model parameters

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - In this study, a heuristic search strategy based on probabilistic and geostatistical simulation approach is developed for simultaneous...     

Application of numerical wave-propagation techniques to study local soil effects: The case of Benevento (Italy)

Many of the numerical techniques used for seismic zonation studies treat one-dimensional structural models and/or the incidence of plane polarized body waves. These techniques are often not adequate for laterally heterogeneous structures and for sources that are not located beneath the site of interest. In such cases a more rigorous treatment of the combined effects of the source, the path and the site response is needed. This can be accomplished with a hybrid approach combining modal summation and the finite-difference technique. To demonstrate the differences between these techniques, the ground motion in the city of Benevento (Italy) is modelled. We first compare the results obtained with one-and two-dimensional structural models for vertical incidence of plane polarized body waves. These results are then compared with those obtained with the hybrid approach for two-dimensional structural models.The comparisons have allowed us to find important differences in the response obtained with the different modelling techniques. For the same site, these differences consist of strong variations in amplitude and in the shape of the spectral amplifications. For a seismic source which is not located beneath the site, vertical incidence of waves significantly overestimates the local hazard in a laterally homogeneous structure. For a laterally heterogeneous area, we can conclude that one-dimensional modelling fails to estimate the seismic hazard, whereas for a seismic source which is not located beneath the site of interest, two-dimensional modelling with vertical incidence of plane polarized body waves may not allow reliable estimates to be made of the frequency bands at which amplifications occur. The results obtained for two-dimensional structural models are used for a zonation of the city of Benevento.     

Surface rupture and mechanism of the Bob-Tangol (southeastern Iran) earthquake of 19 December 1977

The Bob-Tangol earthquake of magnitude 5.8 (M_S), occurred in southeastern Iran on 19 December 1977, not far from the region where the 1896 and 1933 earthquakes caused considerable damage and destruction. The shock was associated with a 19.5-km fault break at the surface with a maximum 20 cm right-lateral strike-slip movement along an Early Quaternary geological fault. Results of the field investigation together with the fault plane solution and epicentre location of the main shock are presented here in order to give a seismotectonic view of the event.Surface rupture and fault plane solution of this medium-magnitude earthquake demonstrate a considerable amount of right-lateral movement along a major Early Quaternary high-angle reverse fault. This change in fault behaviour and slip vector may indicate that evidence of Early Quaternary movement cannot always provide a good clue to present-day crustal deformation.     

基于DEMETER卫星原位等离子体参量的 震前异常提取方法研究及震例分析

基于法国DEMETER卫星等离子体分析仪和Langmuir探针观测到的原位等离子体参量, 研究了参量随纬度变化、 空间插值、 空间差值、 滑动中值、 相关性分析等5种异常提取方法, 并将这些方法应用于2006年1月—2010年4月期间国内6.0级以上、 国外部分7.0级以上29次地震的震例分析中. 由于等离子体参量具有一定的相关性, 因此对于震中附近的轨道数据大于等于2个参量出现异常时, 本研究才将其视为震前异常. 通过研究发现, 29次地震中有15次出现电离层原位等离子体参量的震前异常, 异常时间大约为1—7天, 震中东西两个方向均可能出现异常, 但异常区域多偏向磁赤道.     

同震重力变化对震源滑动参数的敏感性研究：以2004年苏门答腊地震为例

在地震孕育和发生过程中,常伴有地表重力变化.通过同震重力变化反演震源参数,可以为认识地震活动特征奠定基础.为了有效提高同震重力变化反演滑动参数的精度,本文设计了一套定量化表征同震重力变化对震源不同滑动参数敏感性的方法.首先,基于位错理论,通过正演得到震源不同滑动参数下的同震重力变化;随后,利用无量纲化的敏感性分析方法,计算同震重力变化对不同滑动参数的敏感度因子.以2004年苏门答腊地震的断层模型为参考,定量评估了该地震同震重力变化对断层深度、断层倾角、滑移量和滑动角四个独立震源滑动参数的敏感性.评估结果显示,2004年苏门答腊地震同震重力变化对滑移量、滑动角、断层深度和断层倾角这四个独立震源滑动参数的敏感性依次降低.因对滑移量的敏感性远高于对断层倾角的敏感性,滑移量较小的反演偏差可以造成断层倾角较大的反演偏差.所以,在反演过程中,需要更加重视排序靠前的滑移量和滑动角.本文设计的方法虽然适用于其他震例,但在不同震例中,同震重力变化对各滑动参数的敏感性将有所差别.

     

基于数据驱动的时间序列b值计算新方法(TbDD):以2021年云南漾濞Ms6.4地震序列为例

时间序列的b值在天然地震和工业开采诱发地震的危险性分析中具有重要的应用潜力,但长期以来受到计算规则设置的人为主观性、计算结果的可靠性和时序对突变识别精度不高等问题影响,制约了不同结果的可比较性和共识性科学认识的提炼.本文借鉴基于数据驱动(data-driven)的地震活动参数计算思路,采用连续函数形式的OK1993模型...     

Application of laser strainmenters to the study of earthquake physics

The paper considers possibilities of applying laser strainmeters for the study of earthquake physics. One of laser strainmeters is described. A high efficiency of using the laser strainmeters for the study of earthquakes and their precursors is shown. In records of the spaced laser strainmeters, anomalous deformations propagating from the east to the west with the speed comparable with that of migration of earthquakes were found.