Precursory seismic quiescence along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone: past and present

In this study, the seismic quiescence prior to hazardous earthquakes was analyzed along the Sumatra-Andaman subduction zone (SASZ). The seismicity data were screened statistically with mainshock earthquakes of M _w?≥?4.4 reported during 1980–2015 being defined as the completeness database. In order to examine the possibility of using the seismic quiescence stage as a marker of subsequent earthquakes, the seismicity data reported prior to the eight major earthquakes along the SASZ were analyzed for changes in their seismicity rate using the statistical Z test. Iterative tests revealed that Z factors of N?=?50 events and T?=?2?years were optimal for detecting sudden rate changes such as quiescence and to map these spatially. The observed quiescence periods conformed to the subsequent major earthquake occurrences both spatially and temporally. Using suitable conditions obtained from successive retrospective tests, the seismicity rate changes were then mapped from the most up-to-date seismicity data available. This revealed three areas along the SASZ that might generate a major earthquake in the future: (i) Nicobar Islands (Z?=?6.7), (ii) the western offshore side of Sumatra Island (Z?=?7.1), and (iii) western Myanmar (Z?=?6.7). The performance of a stochastic test using a number of synthetic randomized catalogues indicated these levels of anomalous Z value showed the above anomaly is unlikely due to chance or random fluctuations of the earthquake. Thus, these three areas have a high possibility of generating a strong-to-major earthquake in the future.     

Activation of seismicity in Central and South Asia after the Makran earthquakes: Possible acceleration of preparation of large seismic events in the Tien Shan region

Two zones of seismicity (ten events with M _w = 7.0–7.7) stretching from Makran and the Eastern Himalaya to the Central and EasternTien Shan, respectively, formed over 11 years after the great Makran earthquake of 1945 (M _w = 8.1). Two large earthquakes (M _w = 7.7) hit theMakran area in 2013. In addition, two zones of seismicity (M ≥ 5.0) occurred 1–2 years after theMakran earthquake in September 24, 2013, stretching in the north-northeastern and north-northwestern directions. Two large Nepal earthquakes struck the southern extremity of the “eastern” zone (April 25, 2015, M _w = 7.8 and May 12, 2015, M _w = 7.3), and the Pamir earthquake (December 7, 2015, M _w = 7.2) occurred near Sarez Lake eastw of the “western” zone. The available data indicate an increase in subhorizontal stresses in the region under study, which should accelerate the possible preparation of a series of large earthquakes, primarily in the area of the Central Tien Shan, between 70° and 79° E, where no large earthquakes (M _w ≥ 7.0) have occurred since 1992.     

An evaluation of earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau based on the Gumbel III distribution

The Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution (GIII) of the extreme value method is employed to evaluate the earthquake hazard parameters in the Iranian Plateau. This research quantifies spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-year mode beside their 90 % probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Iranian Plateau. Therefore, we used a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2013 with magnitude M _w ? ≥?4.0, and the Iranian Plateau is separated into equal area mesh of 1° late?×?1° long. The estimated result of annual mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M _w 6.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, most parts of Central and East Iran, Kopeh Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan, and SE Zagros. The 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE is expected to overpass the value of M _w 7.0 in the Eastern part of Makran, Central and East Iran, Alborz, Kopeh Dagh, and Azerbaijan. The spatial distribution of 100-year mode with 90 % probability of NBE uncovers the high values of earthquake hazard parameters which are frequently connected with the main tectonic regimes of the studied area. It appears that there is a close communication among the seismicity and the tectonics of the region.     

A study of Guptkashi,Uttarakhand earthquake of 6 February 2017 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript>5.3) in the Himalayan arc and implications for ground motion estimation

The 2017 Guptkashi earthquake occurred in a segment of the Himalayan arc with high potential for a strong earthquake in the near future. In this context, a careful analysis of the earthquake is important as it may shed light on source and ground motion characteristics during future earthquakes. Using the earthquake recording on a single broadband strong-motion seismograph installed at the epicenter, we estimate the earthquake’s location (30.546° N, 79.063° E), depth (H?=?19 km), the seismic moment (M₀?=?1.12×10¹⁷ Nm, M _w 5.3), the focal mechanism (φ?=?280°, δ?=?14°, λ?=?84°), the source radius (a?=?1.3 km), and the static stress drop (Δσ _s ~22 MPa). The event occurred just above the Main Himalayan Thrust. S-wave spectra of the earthquake at hard sites in the arc are well approximated (assuming ω^?2 source model) by attenuation parameters Q(f)?=?500f^0.9, κ?=?0.04 s, and f_max?=?infinite, and a stress drop of Δσ?=?70 MPa. Observed and computed peak ground motions, using stochastic method along with parameters inferred from spectral analysis, agree well with each other. These attenuation parameters are also reasonable for the observed spectra and/or peak ground motion parameters in the arc at distances ≤?200 km during five other earthquakes in the region (4.6?≤?M _w ?≤?6.9). The estimated stress drop of the six events ranges from 20 to 120 MPa. Our analysis suggests that attenuation parameters given above may be used for ground motion estimation at hard sites in the Himalayan arc via the stochastic method.     

Seismic source zoning and maximum credible earthquake prognosis of the Greater Kashmir Territory,NW Himalaya

We present the seismic source zoning of the tectonically active Greater Kashmir territory of the Northwestern Himalaya and seismicity analysis (Gutenberg-Richter parameters) and maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimation of each zone. The earthquake catalogue used in the analysis is an extensive one compiled from various sources which spans from 1907 to 2012. Five seismogenic zones were delineated, viz. Hazara-Kashmir Syntaxis, Karakorum Seismic Zone, Kohistan Seismic Zone, Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. Then, the seismicity analysis and maximum credible earthquake estimation were carried out for each zone. The low b value (<1.0) indicates a higher stress regime in all the zones except Nanga Parbat Syntaxis Seismic Zone and SE-Kashmir Seismic Zone. The m _max was estimated following three different methodologies, the fault parameter approach, convergence rates using geodetic measurements, and the probabilistic approach using the earthquake catalogue and is estimated to be M _w 7.7, M _w 8.5, and M _w 8.1, respectively. The maximum credible earthquake (m _max) estimated for each zone shows that Hazara Kashmir Syntaxis Seismic Zone has the highest m _max of M _w 8.1 (±0.36), which is espoused by the historical 1555 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6 as well as the recent 8 October 2005 Kashmir earthquake of M _w 7.6. The variation in the estimated m _max by the above discussed methodologies is obvious, as the definition and interpretation of the m _max change with the method. Interestingly, historical archives (～900 years) do not speak of a great earthquake in this region, which is attributed to the complex and unique tectonic and geologic setup of the Kashmir Himalaya. The convergence is this part of the Himalaya is distributed not only along the main boundary faults but also along the various active out-of-sequence faults as compared to the Central Himalaya, where it is mainly adjusted along the main boundary fault.     

Probabilistic aftershock hazard analysis,two case studies in West and Northwest Iran

Aftershock hazard maps contain the essential information for search and rescue process, and re-occupation after a main-shock. Accordingly, the main purposes of this article are to study the aftershock decay parameters and to estimate the expected high-frequency ground motions (i.e., Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)) for recent large earthquakes in the Iranian plateau. For this aim, the Ahar-Varzaghan doublet earthquake (August 11, 2012; M _N =6.5, M _N =6.3), and the Ilam (Murmuri) earthquake (August 18, 2014 ; M _N =6.2) have been selected. The earthquake catalogue has been collected based on the Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5), 1363-1367, 1974) temporal and spatial windowing technique. The magnitude of completeness and the seismicity parameters (a,??b) and the modified Omori law parameters (P,??K,??C) have been determined for these two earthquakes in the 14, 30, and 60 days after the mainshocks. Also, the temporal changes of parameters (a,??b,??P,??K,??C) have been studied. The aftershock hazard maps for the probability of exceedance (33%) have been computed in the time periods of 14, 30, and 60 days after the Ahar-Varzaghan and Ilam (Murmuri) earthquakes. For calculating the expected PGA of aftershocks, the regional and global ground motion prediction equations have been utilized. Amplification factor based on the site classes has also been implied in the calculation of PGA. These aftershock hazard maps show an agreement between the PGAs of large aftershocks and the forecasted PGAs. Also, the significant role of b parameter in the Ilam (Murmuri) probabilistic aftershock hazard maps has been investigated.     

Temporal distribution of earthquakes using renewal process in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region

Temporal distribution of earthquakes with M _w > 6 in the Dasht-e-Bayaz region, eastern Iran has been investigated using time-dependent models. Based on these types of models, it is assumed that the times between consecutive large earthquakes follow a certain statistical distribution. For this purpose, four time-dependent inter-event distributions including the Weibull, Gamma, Lognormal, and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) are used in this study and the associated parameters are estimated using the method of maximum likelihood estimation. The suitable distribution is selected based on logarithm likelihood function and Bayesian Information Criterion. The probability of the occurrence of the next large earthquake during a specified interval of time was calculated for each model. Then, the concept of conditional probability has been applied to forecast the next major (M _w > 6) earthquake in the site of our interest. The emphasis is on statistical methods which attempt to quantify the probability of an earthquake occurring within a specified time, space, and magnitude windows. According to obtained results, the probability of occurrence of an earthquake with M _w > 6 in the near future is significantly high.     

Seismicity anomalies before the great earthquake of <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 in the Kunlun Pass and its significance to earthquake prediction

A great earthquake of M _S=8.1 took place in the west of Kunlun Pass on November 14, 2001. The epicenter is located at 36.2°N and 90.9°E. The analysis shows that some main precursory seismic patterns appear before the great earthquake, e.g., seismic gap, seismic band, increased activity, seismicity quiet and swarm activity. The evolution of the seismic patterns before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 exhibits a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with M _S≥7. The difference is that anomalous seismicity before the earthquake of M _S=8.1 involves in the larger area coverage and higher seismic magnitude. This provides an evidence for recognizing precursor and forecasting of very large earthquake. Finally, we review the rough prediction of the great earthquake and discuss some problems related to the prediction of great earthquakes.     

Ground deformation effects from the ~M6 earthquakes (2014–2015) on Cephalonia–Ithaca Islands (Western Greece) deduced by GPS observations

The implications of the earthquakes that took place in the central Ionian Islands in 2014 (Cephalonia, M _w6.1, M _w5.9) and 2015 (Lefkas, M _w6.4) are described based on repeat measurements of the local GPS networks in Cephalonia and Ithaca, and the available continuous GPS stations in the broader area. The Lefkas earthquake occurred on a branch of the Cephalonia Transform Fault, affecting Cephalonia with SE displacements gradually decreasing from north (~100 mm) to south (~10 mm). This earthquake revealed a near N–S dislocation boundary separating Paliki Peninsula in western Cephalonia from the rest of the island, as well as another NW–SE trending fault that separates kinematically the northern and southern parts of Paliki. Strain field calculations during the interseismic period (2014–2015) indicate compression between Ithaca and Cephalonia, while extension appears during the following co-seismic period (2015–2016) including the 2015 Lefkas earthquake. Additional tectonically active zones with differential kinematic characteristics were also identified locally.     

A statistical analysis of seismo-ionospheric TEC anomalies before 63 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript> ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Turkey during 2003–2016

In this study, pre-seismic and post-seismic total electron content (TEC) anomalies of 63 M_w?≥?5.0 earthquakes in Turkey (36°–42°N, 26°–45°E) were statistically investigated. The largest earthquake that occurred in Turkey during 2003–2016 is the M_w 7.1 Van earthquake on October 23, 2011. The TEC data of epicenters is obtained from CODE-GIM using a simple 4-point bivariate interpolation. The anomalies of TEC variations were determined by using a quartile-based running median process. In order to validate GIM results, we used the GPS-TEC data of available four IGS stations within the size of the Van earthquake preparation area. The anomalies that are detected by GIM and GPS-TEC show a similar pattern. Accordingly, the results obtained with CODE-GIM are reliable. The statistical results show that there are not prominent earthquake precursors for M_w?≤?6.0 earthquakes in Turkey.     

A new <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> estimation parameter for use in earthquake early warning systems

We propose a method that employs the squared displacement integral (ID2) to estimate earthquake magnitudes in real time for use in earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. Moreover, using τ _c and P _d for comparison, we establish formulas for estimating the moment magnitudes of these three parameters based on the selected aftershocks (4.0 ≤ M _s  ≤ 6.5) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. In this comparison, the proposed ID2 method displays the highest accuracy. Furthermore, we investigate the applicability of the initial parameters to large earthquakes by estimating the magnitude of the Wenchuan M _s 8.0 mainshock using a 3-s time window. Although these three parameters all display problems with saturation, the proposed ID2 parameter is relatively accurate. The evolutionary estimation of ID2 as a function of the time window shows that the estimation equation established with ID2 ^Ref determined from the first 8-s of P wave data can be directly applicable to predicate the magnitudes of 8.0. Therefore, the proposed ID2 parameter provides a robust estimator of earthquake moment magnitudes and can be used for EEW purposes.     

Characteristics of Seismicity in the Areas of Large Water Reservoirs and Waterfalls: The Role of Effects from Additional Load and Permanent Vibration

The characteristics of seismicity in the near vicinity of five large water reservoirs and three large waterfalls from different regions of the Earth are considered. It is found that in some cases induced seismicity manifests itself during the filling of reservoirs at quite large depths: in the lower crust and even in the upper mantle. There is negative correlation between the maximum magnitudes Мmax of the earthquakes recorded near water reservoirs and waterfalls and the water discharge in these objects (V _p ). The largest values of М_max are characteristic of earthquakes that occurred near Sarez Lake (Tajikistan) and the Koyna Reservoir (India), which have the lowest V _p ; in contrast, the smallest magnitudes are reported for earthquakes in the areas of the Khone Falls (Laos) and Niagara Falls (United States, Canada), where there are no large artificial water reservoirs, but huge water discharge takes place. The available data indicate that permanent vibration caused by falling water reduces the level of seismicity.     

The ratio between corner frequencies of source spectra of <Emphasis Type="Italic">P</Emphasis>- and <Emphasis Type="Italic">S</Emphasis>-waves—a new discriminant between earthquakes and quarry blasts

This study analyzes and compares the P- and S-wave displacement spectra from local earthquakes and explosions of similar magnitudes. We propose a new approach to discrimination between low-magnitude shallow earthquakes and explosions by using ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequencies as a criterion. We have explored 2430 digital records of the Israeli Seismic Network (ISN) from 456 local events (226 earthquakes, 230 quarry blasts, and a few underwater explosions) of magnitudes Md?=?1.4–3.4, which occurred at distances up to 250 km during 2001–2013 years. P-wave and S-wave displacement spectra were computed for all events following Brune’s source model of earthquakes (1970, 1971) and applying the distance correction coefficients (Shapira and Hofstetter, Teconophysics 217:217–226, 1993; Ataeva G, Shapira A, Hofstetter A, J Seismol 19:389-401, 2015), The corner frequencies and moment magnitudes were determined using multiple stations for each event, and then the comparative analysis was performed.The analysis showed that both P-wave and especially S-wave displacement spectra of quarry blasts demonstrate the corner frequencies lower than those obtained from earthquakes of similar magnitudes. A clear separation between earthquake and explosion populations was obtained for ratios of P- to S-wave corner frequency f ₀(P)/f ₀(S). The ratios were computed for each event with corner frequencies f ₀ of P- and S-wave, which were obtained from the measured f ₀ ^I at individual stations, then corrected for distance and finally averaged. We obtained empirically the average estimation of f ₀(P)/f ₀(S)?=?1.23 for all used earthquakes, and 1.86 for all explosions. We found that the difference in the ratios can be an effective discrimination parameter which does not depend on estimated moment magnitude M _w .The new multi-station Corner Frequency Discriminant (CFD) for earthquakes and explosions in Israel was developed based on ratios P- to S-wave corner frequencies f ₀(P)/f ₀(S), with the empirical threshold value of the ratio for Israel as 1.48.     

Atypical soil behavior during the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (<Emphasis Type="Italic">М</Emphasis><Subscript><Emphasis Type="Italic">w</Emphasis></Subscript> = 9)

To understand physical mechanisms of generation of abnormally high peak ground acceleration (PGA; >1g) during the Tohoku earthquake, models of nonlinear soil behavior in the strong motion were constructed for 27 KiK-net stations located in the near-fault zones to the south of FKSH17. The method of data processing used was developed by Pavlenko and Irikura, Pure Appl Geophys 160:2365–2379, 2003 and previously applied for studying soil behavior at vertical array sites during the 1995 Kobe (М _w ?=?6.8) and 2000 Tottori (М _w ?=?6.7) earthquakes. During the Tohoku earthquake, we did not observe a widespread nonlinearity of soft soils and reduction at the beginning of strong motion and recovery at the end of strong motion of shear moduli in soil layers, as usually observed during strong earthquakes. Manifestations of soil nonlinearity and reduction of shear moduli during strong motion were observed at sites located close to the source, in coastal areas. At remote sites, where abnormally high PGAs were recorded, shear moduli in soil layers increased and reached their maxima at the moments of the highest intensity of the strong motion, indicating soil hardening. Then, shear moduli reduced with decreasing the intensity of the strong motion. At soft-soil sites, the reduction of shear moduli was accompanied by a step-like decrease of the predominant frequencies of motion. Evidently, the observed soil hardening at the moments of the highest intensity of the strong motion contributed to the occurrence of abnormally high PGA, recorded during the Tohoku earthquake.     

Ground motion prediction equations for horizontal and vertical components of acceleration in Northern Iran

Recent studies have shown that the vertical component of ground motion can be quite destructive on a variety of structural systems. Development of response spectrum for design of buildings subjected to vertical component of earthquake needs ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). The existing GMPEs for northern Iranian plateau are proposed for the horizontal component of earthquake, and there is not any specified GMPE for the vertical component of earthquake in this region. Determination of GMPEs is mostly based on regression analyses on earthquake parameters such as magnitude, site class, distance, and spectral amplitudes. In this study, 325 three-component records of 55 earthquakes with magnitude ranging from M _w 4.1 to M _w 7.3 are used for estimation on the regression coefficients. Records with distances less than 300 km are selected for analyses in the database. The regression analyses on earthquake parameters results in determination of GMPEs for peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for both horizontal and vertical components of the ground motion. The correlation between the models for vertical and horizontal GMPEs is studied in details. These models are later compared with some other available GMPEs. According to the result of this investigation, the proposed GMPEs are in agreement with the other relationships that were developed based on the local and regional data.     

A first-order seismotectonic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk estimation

The purpose of this work is to define a seismic regionalization of Mexico for seismic hazard and risk analyses. This seismic regionalization is based on seismic, geologic, and tectonic characteristics. To this end, a seismic catalog was compiled using the more reliable sources available. The catalog was made homogeneous in magnitude in order to avoid the differences in the way this parameter is reported by various agencies. Instead of using a linear regression to converts from m _b and M _d to M _s or M _w , using only events for which estimates of both magnitudes are available (i.e., paired data), we used the frequency-magnitude relations relying on the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation. The seismic regions are divided into three main categories: seismicity associated with the subduction process along the Pacific coast of Mexico, in-slab events within the down-going COC and RIV plates, and crustal seismicity associated to various geologic and tectonic regions. In total, 18 seismic regions were identified and delimited. For each, the a and b values of the Gutenberg-Richter relation were determined using a maximum likelihood estimation. The a and b parameters were repeatedly estimated as a function of time for each region, in order to confirm their reliability and stability. The recurrence times predicted by the resulting Gutenberg-Richter relations obtained are compared with the observed recurrence times of the larger events in each region of both historical and instrumental earthquakes.     

Seismicity study in Pournari reservoir area (W. Greece) 1981–2010

The spatial-temporal evolution of seismicity is examined, during the initial impoundment of Pournari reservoir located on Arachthos River (Western Greece), as well as for the next 30 years. The results show that, despite the relatively moderate-to-high seismicity from west to east, there is no remarkable earthquake in the vicinity before the first reservoir impoundment. Immediately after the impoundment (January 1981), and during the first 4 months, a considerable number of low-magnitude seismic events were recorded in the broader area of the dam. Moreover, two independent major events occurred on March 10, 1981 (M _L ?=?5.6) and April 10, 1981 (M _L ?=?4.7) with focal depths 13 and 10 km, respectively. The detailed analysis of the two corresponding aftershock sequences shows that they present different behaviors (e.g., larger b-value and lower magnitude of the main aftershock) than that of other aftershock sequences in Greece. This seismicity is probably due to triggering, via the water loading mechanism and the undrained response due to a flysch appearance on the reservoir basement. The activation of the thrust fault may be attributed to the bulging of evaporites that characterize the disordered structure of W. Greece, via possible water intake. The detailed processing of the recorded seismicity during the period 1982–2010, in comparison with the variations of Pournari Dam water level, shows an increase of shallow seismicity (h?≤?5 km) in the vicinity of the reservoir up to a 10-km distance—in contrast to the initial period, characterized by a number of deeper events due to the background response change from undrained to drained status.     

Body wave attenuation characteristics in the crust of Alborz region and North Central Iran

Attenuation of P and S waves has been investigated in Alborz and north central part of Iran using the data recorded by two permanent and one temporary networks during October 20, 2009, to December 22, 2010. The dataset consists of 14,000 waveforms from 380 local earthquakes (2 < M _L < 5.6). The extended coda normalization method (CNM) was used to estimate quality factor of P (Q _P) and S waves (Q _S) at seven frequency bands (0.375, 0.75, 1.5, 3, 6, 12, 24 Hz). The Q _P and Q _S values have been estimated at lapse times from 40 to 100 s. It has been observed that the estimated values of Q _P and Q _S are time independent; therefore, the mean values of Q _P and Q _S at different lapse times have been considered. The frequency dependence of quality factor was determined by using a power-law relationship. The frequency-dependent relationship for Q _P was estimated in the form of (62 ± 7)f ^{(1.03 ± 0.07)} and (48 ± 5)f ^{(0.95 ± 0.07)} in Alborz region and North Central Iran, respectively. These relations for Q _S for Alborz region and North Central Iran have estimated as (83 ± 8)f ^{(0.99 ± 0.07)} and (68 ± 5)f ^{(0.96 ± 0.05)}, respectively. The observed low Q values could be the results of thermoelastic effects and/or existing fracture. The estimated frequency-dependent relationships are comparable with tectonically active regions.     

New magnitude scaling relations for earthquake early warning in the Alborz region,Iran

Rapid magnitude estimation relations for earthquake early warning systems in the Alborz region have been developed based on the initial first seconds of the P-wave arrival. For this purpose, a total of 717 accelerograms recorded by the Building and Housing Research Center in the Alborz region with the magnitude (M_w) range of 4.8–6.5 in the period between 1995 and 2013 were employed. Average ground motion period (\( \tau_{\text{c}} \)) and peak displacement (\( P_{\text{d}} \)) in different time windows from the P-wave arrival were calculated, and their relation with magnitude was examined. Four earthquakes that were excluded from the analysis process were used to validate the results, and the estimated magnitudes were found to be in good agreement with the observed ones. The results show that using the proposed relations for the Alborz region, earthquake magnitude could be estimated with acceptable accuracy even after 1 s of the P-wave arrival.     

An Evaluation of Coulomb Stress Changes from Earthquake Productivity Variations in the Western Gulf of Corinth,Greece

Spatial and temporal evolution of the stress field in the seismically active and well-monitored area of the western Gulf of Corinth, Greece, is investigated. The highly accurate and vast regional catalogues were used for inverting seismicity rate changes into stress variation using a rate/state-dependent friction model. After explicitly determining the physical quantities incorporated in the model (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and reference seismicity rates), we looked for stress changes across space and over time and their possible association with earthquake clustering and fault interactions. We focused our attention on the Efpalio doublet of January 2010 (M = 5.5 and M = 5.4), with a high aftershock productivity, and attempted to reproduce and interpret stress changes prior to and after the initiation of this seismicity burst. The spatial distribution of stress changes was evaluated after smoothing the seismological data by means of a probability density function (PDF). The inverted stress calculations were compared with the calculations derived from an independent approach (elastic dislocation model) and this comparison was quantified. The results of the two methods are in good agreement (up to 80 %) in the far field, with the inversion technique providing more robust results in the near field, where they are more sensitive to the uncertainties of coseismic slip distribution. It is worth mentioning that the stress inversion model proved to be a very sensitive stress meter, able to detect even small stress changes correlated with spatio–temporal earthquake clustering. Data analysis was attempted from 1975 onwards to simulate the stress changes associated with stronger earthquakes over a longer time span. This approach revealed that only M > 5.5 events induce considerable stress variations, although in some cases there was no evidence for such stress changes even after an M > 5.5 earthquake.