Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes as Applied to Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Associate Risks

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The distribution of the number of seismic events by magnitudes—the Gutenberg–Richter frequency–magnitude relation—is of paramount...     

A Multiscale Application of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes in the Central Mediterranean Area and Alpine Region

We study the parameters A, B, and C of the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes (USLE) in the Central Mediterranean area and Alpine region on the basis of a variable space and time scale approach. We make use of regional and local earthquake catalogues. Accordingly, we investigate three different scales: the scale of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region spanning different geological domains, the scale of the Alps focusing on a single geological entity, and the scale of an active fault system at the junction between the southeastern Alps and the external Dinarides in Northeastern Italy and Western Slovenia. Maps based on the varied time and location scales are compared with each other. The observed temporal variability of the A, B, C coefficients indicates significant changes of seismic activity at the time scales of a few decades. Therefore, it is highly recommended to use all the data available for long-term seismic hazard assessment in conjunction with a real-time monitoring of these characteristics for possible evaluation of time-dependent risk at the intermediate-term scales of a few years. The confirmed fractal nature of earthquakes and their distribution in space implies that the traditional estimations of seismic hazard for cities and urban agglomerations are usually underestimated. The degree of underestimation by traditional methods of seismic risk at a city is illustrated by providing estimates of hazard and related personal hazard, which are oversimplified examples of seismic risk assessment accounting for fractal properties of earthquakes in the major cities of the Central Mediterranean and Alpine region.     

Seismic risk assessment for the Greater Sochi area

Earthquakes, among other natural phenomena, often cause loss of life and significant economic damage. According to the statistical data of the International Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (www.cred.be), earthquakes are among the leaders in all aspects: the number of fatalities, the number of injured, and the caused economic loss. The widely accepted strategy for reducing the damage and social losses implies preventive measures in high-risk zones identified by mapping with different details. About 5% of RF territory is referred to the areas characterized by a high level of seismic hazard, where earthquakes with intensities I = 8–9 and 9–10 by the MMSK-86 scale may occur. The Caucasus is among the most hazardous and densely populated regions in the country. During the preparation to the 2014 Olympic Games, the individual seismic risk was assessed for the Greater Sochi territory including the Olympic sites. The paper analyzes the results of seismic risk monitoring, obtained in 2007 and 2013.     

Earthquake risk assessment for Istanbul metropolitan area

The impact of earthquakes in urban centers prone to disastrous earthquakes necessitates the analysis of associated risk for rational formulation of contingency plans and mitigation strategies. In urban centers, the seismic risk is best quantified and portrayed through the preparation of “Earthquake Damage and Loss Scenarios.” The components of such scenarios are the assessment of the hazard, inventories and the vulnerabilities of elements at risk. For the development of the earthquake risk scenario in Istanbul, two independent approaches, one based on intensities and the second on spectral displacements, are utilized. This paper will present the important features of a comprehensive study, highlight the methodology, discuss the results and provide insights to future developments.     

Conditional risk based on multivariate hazard scenarios

We present a novel methodology to compute conditional risk measures when the conditioning event depends on a number of random variables. Specifically, given a random vector \((\mathbf {X},Y)\), we consider risk measures that express the risk of Y given that \(\mathbf {X}\) assumes values in an extreme multidimensional region. In particular, the considered risky regions are related to the AND, OR, Kendall and Survival Kendall hazard scenarios that are commonly used in environmental literature. Several closed formulas are considered (especially in the AND and OR scenarios). An application to spatial risk analysis involving real data is discussed.     

The catalogue of Quaternary volcanoes of the Greater Caucasus based on geochronological,volcanological and isotope-geochemical data

A catalogue of Quaternary volcanoes of the Greater Caucasus has been compiled based on recent geological, petrological-geochemical and isotope-geochronological data obtained in the last decades. This catalogue provides insight into the evolution of the youngest magmatism in this part of the Alpine-Himalayan fold belt at the modern level of knowledge. The catalogue is given as a set of tabular data on 74 volcanic edifices that have been found and described in literature in varying detail, including their coordinates, absolute height, type of edifice and the predominant type of eruption, age, as well as main petrographic, isotope-geochemical characteristics, and the chemical composition of the products of magmatic activity. For the sake of convenience, the volcanoes of the Kazbek and Elbrus neovolcanic areas representing two main areals of young magmatism at the Greater Caucasus are described separately. In addition, data on the Kazbek area are grouped by traditionally distinguished volcanic centers. Text presents general information on the Quaternary volcanic activity within the Greater Caucasus, its geochronology, spatiotemporal distribution, and petrogenesis of the youngest volcanic rocks.     

Earthquake risk assessment of buildings accounting for human evacuation

A primary goal of earthquake engineering is to protect society from the possible negative consequences of future earthquakes. Conventionally, this goal has been achieved indirectly by reducing seismic damage of the built environment through better building codes, or more comprehensibly, by minimizing seismic risk. However, the effect that building damage has on occupants is not explicitly taken into account while designing infrastructure. Consequently, this paper introduces a conceptual framework and numerical algorithm to assess earthquake risk on building occupants during seismic events, considering the evacuation process of the structure. The framework combines probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, inelastic structural response analysis and damage assessment, and couples these results with the response of evacuating agents. The results are cast as probability distributions of variables that measure the overall performance of the system (e.g., evacuation times, number of injured people, and repair costs) for specific time windows. As a testbed, the framework was applied to the response of a reinforced concrete frame building that exemplifies the use of all steps of the methodology. The results suggest that this seismic risk evaluation framework of structural systems that combine the response of a physical model with human agents can be extended to a wide variety of other situations, including the assessment of mitigation actions in communities and people to improve their earthquake resilience. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ancient destructive earthquakes in Chersonesus Taurica and their importance for a long-term seismic hazard assessment of the Southwestern Crimea region

Continuing the author’s earlier works, the signs of ancient destructive earthquakes in the southwest Crimea have been collected and analyzed. These signs are considered using archeoseismological method based on the data of multiannual archeological excavations at Chersonesus Taurica and agricultural hinterland around it (chora) separately on each period of total destruction, reconstruction and new construction, and on structures of different purposes and degrees of earthquake-resistance (defensive structures, large civil buildings, dwellings, fortified estates, necropolises, and burials). Indirect signs are also involved. Both direct and indirect signs unambiguously contribute to form the general scenarios of considerable destruction in the polis and its chora, with the disturbance of entire socioeconomic life, which occurred in 340(±20) and 105(±5) BC as a result of strong earthquakes with I = VIII–IX (on MSK-64 scale). Based on the results of earlier works on destructive earthquakes of a later historical period in mind, the seismic potential of the Sevastopol source zone has been estimated.     

Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.     

云南省3次地震的余震活动的折合能量-地震矩关系

折合能量或视应力如何随地震矩而变化，即折合能量一地震矩定标关系，是一个目前争议颇多的问题，需要更多的观测资料来参加讨论。本文利用2000年1月15日姚安5．9、6．5级地震，2001年10月27日永胜6．0级地震，2003年7月21日、10月16日大姚6．2、6．1级地震的余震序列的观测结果，讨论了这一问题。在估算能量时采用了Brune震源谱模型情况下的Andrews方法。结果表明，对这3次地震的余震序列来说，小于4级的地震活动的“折合能量”随地震矩而上升，而大于4级的地震数目虽不多，却呈现出折合能量不随地震矩而变化的特点。     

The Traces and Chronology of the Strong Historical Earthquakes on Cape Zyuk,East Crimea

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The results of studying the geological and archaeological traces of the strong earthquakes on Cape Zyuk where the ancient settlement existed from the turn of...     

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.     

Improved seismic risk estimation for Bucharest,based on multiple hazard scenarios and analytical methods

Bucharest, capital of Romania, is one of the most exposed big cities in Europe to seismic damage, due to the intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region, to the vulnerable building stock and local soil conditions.This paper tries to answer very important questions related to the seismic risk at city scale that were not yet adequately answered. First, we analyze and highlight the bottlenecks of previous risk-related studies. Based on new researches in the hazard of Bucharest (recent microzonation map and ground-motion prediction equations, reprocessed real recorded data) and in vulnerability assessment (analytical methods, earthquake loss estimation software like SELENA and ELER, the recently implemented Near Real-Time System for Estimating the Seismic Damage in Romania) we provide an improved estimation of the number of buildings and population that could be affected, for different earthquake scenarios. A new method for enhancing the spatial resolution of the building stock data is used successfully.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in SE-Spain based on macroseismic site histories

In many countries such as Spain earthquake databases still mainly comprise macroseismic data from felt effects. The full exploit of this information is of basic importance for seismic risk assessment and emergency planning, given the strict link between macroseismic intensity and damage. A probabilistic procedure specifically developed to handle macroseismic data, mostly relying on site information and seismogenic-source free, has been applied to evaluate seismic hazard in SE-Spain (Alicante-Murcia region). Present seismicity is moderate-low with largest magnitudes slightly over Mw5.0. The historical record includes very destructive earthquakes, maximum EMS98 intensities reaching IX–X and X in the nineteenth century (e.g., Torrevieja 1829 earthquake). Very recently, two events in the area on 11 May 2011 (Mw4.5, Mw5.2) killed nine people, injured 300, and produced important damage in the city of Lorca. Regional hazard maps for the area together with specific hazard curves at selected localities are obtained. Results are compared with the maximum observed intensities in the period 1300–2012, and with the values in the seismic hazard map from the Spanish Building Code in force. In general, the maximum felt intensity values are closer to the hazard values calculated for 2 % probability of exceedance in 50 years, using felt and expected intensity. The intensity-based probabilistic hazard maps obtained through the applied approach reduce the inherent smoothing of those based on standard probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approaches for the region, allowing identifying possible over- or sub-estimates of site hazard values, providing very valuable information for risk reduction strategies or for future updates of the building code hazard maps.     

Quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment with vulnerability surface and hazard joint return period

Risk assessment plays an important role in disaster risk management. Existing multi-hazard risk assessment models are often qualitative or semi-quantitative in nature and used for comparative study of regional risk levels. They cannot estimate directly probability of disaster losses from the joint impact of several hazards. In this paper, a quantitative approach of multi-hazard risk assessment based on vulnerability surface and joint return period of hazards is put forward to assess the risk of crop losses in the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The impact of strong wind and flood, the two most prominent agricultural hazards in the area, is analyzed. The multi-hazard risk assessment process consists of three steps. First, a vulnerability surface, which denotes the functional relationship between the intensity of the hazards and disaster losses, was built using the crop losses data for losses caused by strong wind and flood in the recent 30 years. Second, the joint probability distribution of strong wind and flood was established using the copula functions. Finally, risk curves that show the probability of crop losses in this multi-hazard context at four case study sites were calculated according to the joint return period of hazards and the vulnerability surface. The risk assessment result of crop losses provides a useful reference for governments and insurance companies to formulate agricultural development plans and analyze the market of agricultural insurance. The multi-hazard risk assessment method developed in this paper can also be used to quantitatively assess multi-hazard risk in other regions.     

Earthquake loss estimation for Greater Cairo and the national economic implications

The Egyptian economy and culture are centralized in the Greater Cairo region. Thus, it is essential that the built environment is able to withstand the possible earthquake events that may occur, and to continue to operate and function. Failure to do so would result in significant economic losses. This study presents the latter stages of a multi-tiered probabilistic earthquake loss estimation model for Greater Cairo and builds upon previous studies of the seismic hazard. In order to assess possible damage to the built environment, and the resulting economic losses, the vulnerability of the built environment is first evaluated. Through the use of satellite images, Egypts building census, previous studies and field surveys, a building-stock inventory is compiled. This building inventory is classified according to structural type and height, and is geocoded by district. Using existing fragility curves, the vulnerability of the building stock is assessed. In addition, the vulnerability of both the electricity and natural gas networks are assessed, through the use of fragility curves, cut sets and an evaluation of the supply networks. Based on the assessment of direct losses, the losses associated with building damage far exceed those associated with the considered network infrastructure. A macro-economic model is developed that takes into account damage to the built environment and provides estimates of indirect economic losses, as well as enabling the identification of the optimal recovery process. Using this model, it is shown that the indirect losses can exceed direct losses for extreme scenarios where the economy is brought to a near standstill. The framework developed and presented herein can be extended to include more networks, and is also applicable to other regions.     

Volcanic hazard assessment in the Phlegraean Fields: a contribution based on stratigraphic and historical data

Phenomena occurring since 1982 in the Phlegraean Fields, interpreted as precursors of a potential renewal of volcanic activity, have forced us to anticipate some conclusions of a volcanic-hazard study based on the reconstruction of past eruptions in the area, to serve as basis for civil defense preparedness plans. The eruptive history of the Phlegraean Fields suggests a progressive decrease with time in the strength of eruptive phenomena paralleling a migration of vents towards the center of the Phlegraean caldera. Studies concerning the volcanic risk zonation were therefore concentrated on activities during the last 4,500 years and two eruptions (Monte Nuovo and Agnano Monte Spina), that occurred in 1538 and 4,400 years B.P., respectively were selected as the «reference eruptions» from which possible eruption scenarios were drawn.     

云南地区中小地震静力学和动力学参数定标关系

Source spectra for moderate and small earthquakes are obtained after removing the path effect, site effect, and instrument response, etc. in the observed S-wave spectra. Based on the Brune source model...     

Flood risk assessment and mapping based on a modified multi-parameter flood hazard index model in the Guanzhong Urban Area,China

The aim of this study is to promote appropriate land development policies and to improve operations of flood risk in urban areas. This study first illustrated a multi-parameter flood hazard index (FHI) model for assessing potential flood risk areas in the Guanzhong Urban Area (GUA), a large-scale urban area in northwestern China. The FHI model consisted of the following seven parameters: rainfall intensity, flow accumulation, distance from the river network, elevation, land use, surface slope, and geology. The parameter weights were assigned using an analytical hierarchy process and the sum weight of the first three parameters accounted for 71.21% of the total weight and had significant influence on flooding. By combining with population factor, the FHI model was modified to estimate the flood control area in the GUA. The spatial distribution of the flood risk was obviously different in the flood hazard area and flood control area. The very low risk and medium risk area in the flood control area increased by 11.19% and reduced by 9.03% compared to flood hazard area, but there were no obvious differences in other levels of risk areas. The flood control assessment indicated that very high flood risk areas were principally concentrated along river banks (the Weihe River and its tributaries) and in the middle of the Guanzhong Plain. Land use and population distribution are related to flooding. Especially, forestland was located in 84.48% of the very low risk area, while low risk areas were mainly located in 91.49% of high population dispersion area.