预测新马德里地震带未来的地震

伊利诺伊州地质调查局和伊利诺伊大学研究人员说,中西部地区洞穴里白色的小石笋可能会帮助科学家完成新马德里地震带（NMSZ）编年史,甚至预测下次大地震发生的可能性。     

Scattering and attenuation of high-frequency body waves (1–25 Hz) in the lithosphere

A strong frequency dependence of apparent Q_β^?1 of shear waves was found for the frequency range from 1 to 25 Hz using band-pass filtered records of about 900 earthquakes occurring in the central Japan area with focal depths from 0 to 150 km. The method used for estimating Q_β is a single-station method based on elimination of the source effect from S waves by the use of coda spectra. The validity of the method is confirmed by agreement between the results obtained independently using data from two stations in the same area.     

Seismic wave attenuation in the upper Mantle beneath the Aegean region

A detailed study of P and S waves from earthquakes located along the Hellenic arc and recorded by the Greek seismological network, shows an abnormal distribution of the seismic waves in the central Aegean Sea. The data indicate a zone of anomalously high seismic wave attenuation in the Upper Mantle beneath the Cyclades plateau and the inner part of the volcanic arc. Several independent observations suggest the presence of magma beneath the Cyclades massif.In addition, geophysical data indicate the presence of low-density and rigidity material. Theoretical consideration of the propagation of elastic waves corroborate the observed absence of shear waves.     

A study of the crustal structure beneath the Himalayas from body waves

Summary The crustal structure beneath the Himalayas has been investigated using body wave data from near earthquakes having epicentres over the Himalayas and recorded by the observatories situated over, or very near, the foothills of the mountains. A three-layered crustal model, without the top sedimentary layer, with velocities for theP wave group in Granite I, Granite II and the Basaltic layer as 5.48, 6.00 and 6.45 and for theS wave group as 3.33, 3.56 and 3.90 km/sec respectively, has been interpreted. The upper mantle velocity for theP wave has been observed to be 8.07 km/sec and for theS wave as 4.57 km/sec. Average thickness for the Granite I layer has been computed as 22.7 km, for the Granite II layer as 16.3 km and for the Basaltic layer as 18.7 km. Crustal and sub-crustal velocities indicate a lower trend under the mountain. A thicker crust has been obtained beneath the Himalayas.     

南北地震带北段的远震P波层析成像研究

本文利用“中国地震科学台阵”探测项目在南北地震带北段布设的678个流动地震台站在2013年10月至2015年4月期间记录到的远震波形数据,经过波形互相关拾取到473个远震事件共130309条P波走时残差数据,通过远震层析成像研究获得了该区（30°N-44°N,96°E-110°E）下方0.5°×0.5°的P波速度扰动图像.结果显示,研究区下方P波速度结构显示强烈的不均一性和显著的分区、分块特征.岩石圈速度结构具有显著的东西差异：祁连、西秦岭和松潘甘孜地块组成的青藏东北缘地区显示明显的低速异常,而属于克拉通性质的鄂尔多斯地块和四川盆地则显示高速异常,表明东部克拉通块体对青藏高原物质的东向挤出起到了强烈的阻挡作用.阿拉善地块显示出弱高速和局部弱低速的异常并存的特征.阿拉善地块西部显示低速异常,而东部与鄂尔多斯相邻的地区显示高速异常,可能表明该地区的岩石圈的变形主要受到青藏高原东北缘的挤压作用.在鄂尔多斯和四川盆地之间的秦岭下方100~250 km深度上表现为明显的低速异常,表明该处可能存在软流圈物质的运移通道.鄂尔多斯北部的河套裂陷盆地下方在100~500 km深度内低速异常表现明显,说明该区有深部热物质上涌且至少来源于地幔过渡带.青藏东北缘上地幔显示低速异常且地幔过渡带中出现明显的高速异常,这种结构模式暗示了在青藏高原东北缘可能发生了岩石圈拆沉作用,而高速异常体可能是拆沉的岩石圈地幔.

     

青岛震群体波衰减特性研究

随着观测能力的提高和观测手段的改善,反映地球介质特性Q值的研究不断深化和发展。利用山东数字测震台网记录的数字地震波资料,采用时间域P波脉冲宽度法对2003年和2004年青岛震群进行Q值计算,对初动半周期的两种不同获取方法进行了比较,总结了P波脉冲宽度法的适用条件及计算效果,得到青岛地区和胶东地区的Q值。     

利用S波高频衰减对天山中东段地区地壳Q值成像

利用天山中东段地区25个数字地震台站记录到的2009~2014年底5076个近震波形资料以及新疆地震台网提供的观测报告,采用遗传算法对S波位移谱的高频衰减进行拟合,得到19140条衰减算子t~*数据。根据这些t*数据,反演得到该区地壳Q_s值分布。结果表明,天山中东段地区平均Q_0值为520,其Q_s值分布及其所揭示的衰减变化特征与研究区的地表构造明显相关。天山南北两侧的山区盆地交汇部位Q_s值较低,而高Q_s值较为集中地分布于天山造山带内部。1900年以来天山中东段地区6级以上强震大多位于低Q_s值区域,该区24个高热流点也大多位于上述天山南北两侧的低Q_s值区域,热流值与衰减值呈负相关;此外,研究区的速度结构与衰减结构也呈一定的正相关,反映了二维衰减结构特征与速度结构、二维密度结构的一致性。     

最新的分析较好地定义了新马德里地震危险性图的不确定性

虽然我们不能确定地震是如何和什么时候发生的 ,以及相关的地面振动强度 ,但预测所预期的地震的地面振动水平从规划的目的来看对社会是重要的。这些预测由概率地震危险性图来表达。概率地震危险性图可以看作类似于长期天气预报的地震。大多数人认为天气不能准确地被预报 ,而所持的观点是预报只是给出某个时间段内气候的可能状态。由于缺少全区域气候情况的丰富观测 ,例如 ,从干旱到洪涝 ,因此必须应用极端气候模型来估计发生灾害情况的概率。正像这些概率可以被社会用于应对极端的天气情况一样 ,地震危险性图可以被用于应对由地震引起的破坏…     

南北地震带南段远震P波走时层析成像研究

南北地震带南段位于青藏高原东南缘,是青藏高原与扬子克拉通的过渡地带.本文收集了该区域内90个固定台站和356个流动台站的远震波形数据,采用波形互相关方法拾取了88691个P波走时残差数据,应用FMTT(Fast Marching Teleseismic Tomography)层析成像方法获取了南北地震带南段深部的三维P波速度结构.结果显示了研究区深部的结构具有显著的不均匀性:腾冲火山地区深部400 km以浅的深度内分布着明显的低速异常;四川盆地西南部下方300 km内具有较强的高速异常;在上地幔顶部,沿川滇菱形块体周边的大型断裂带及川滇菱形块体南端分布着显著的低速异常,这些低速异常为青藏高原物质向东南方向挤出提供了必要的通道;保山地块下方存在一东倾的高速异常带,该高速异常带为印度板块岩石圈向东俯冲的体现.     

Near-source ground motion attenuation relationship for PGA and PSA of the vertical and horizontal components

In this paper, empirical ground-motion models for the vertical and average horizontal components of peak ground-motion and acceleration response spectra from shallow crustal earthquakes are derived using near-source database. These attenuation relationships were derived using a worldwide dataset consisted of corrected and processed accelerograms of 678 strong-motion records recorded with 60 km of the rupture plane of earthquakes between M_w 5.2 and 7.9. Ground motion models are functions of earthquake mechanism, distance from source to site, local average shear wave velocity, nonlinear soil response, sediment depth, depth-to-top of the rupture, hanging wall effects and faulting mechanism.     

南北地震带北段的地壳速度结构及其构造启示

收集和拾取了“中国地震科学台阵”探测项目在南北地震带北段布设的680个流动地震台站和中国地震台网217个固定台站所记录的地震事件的P波和S波初至到时,通过层析成像研究获得了南北地震带北段水平网格间距为0.33°×0.33°的地壳P波和S波速度分布。结果显示:在30 km深度上青藏高原东北部表现为显著的整体性低速异常,低速异常区向南延伸至龙门山断裂,以106°E为界线将秦岭造山带分为西侧的低速异常和东侧的高速异常,并沿银川—河套地堑向东北展布,向北穿过河西走廊,在阿拉善地块表现为低速异常,这可能暗示了青藏高原向东的扩展被较为坚固的四川盆地和秦岭造山带阻挡,而向北的扩展可能影响到了河西走廊至阿拉善地块,并沿银川—河套地堑影响到鄂尔多斯西北缘;在50 km深度上,阿拉善地块、祁连造山带东段显示高速异常,有可能是阿拉善地块向祁连东段下方俯冲所致。研究区内大部分地震分布在P波和S波高低速异常相间及速度剧烈变化的地区,M≥6.0强震几乎全部投影在30 km深度的低速异常区域内,说明强震发生的背景可能与地震源区下方的低速区有关。      

大兴安岭诺敏河火山群远震P波衰减研究

板内火山活动是板内下方深部物质组成的重要视窗,而中国东北是研究板内火山的热点场所.中国东北火山活动主要沿大兴安岭及松辽盆地周缘分布,隐匿在大兴安岭内的各火山群落鲜有地球物理观测.本研究聚焦于大兴安岭北部的诺敏河火山群,利用围绕诺敏河火山布设的43个流动台站记录到的17个远震事件数据,通过时间域波形匹配法计算了300条直达P波震相的Δt^*,并进一步采用贝叶斯蒙特卡洛方法反演得到了研究区的二维Δt^*模型,为约束诺敏河火山地区的深部结构提供了新的观测证据.结果显示研究区高衰减区域与火山活动在空间位置上有很好的一致性.诺敏河火山与研究区北端临近小古里河火山区域均观测到高Δt^*值,可能由区域下方热地幔物质上涌导致.诺敏河火山东部、科洛河火山西部区域观测到低Δt^*值,与高衰减区域最大Δt^*差值达约0.3±0.05 s,可能由两部分原因导致：该区域下方残留未被侵蚀的岩石圈,以及局部区域或存在的部分熔融导致的残留地幔矿物脱水.

     

Ground Motion Modeling for Seismic Hazard Analysis in the Near-source Regime: An Asperity Model

—A new, yet simple, method using the asperity model to estimate ground motion in the near-source regime for probabilistic seismic hazard analyses is proposed in this study. This near-source model differs from conventional empirical attenuation equations. It correlates peak ground motions with the local contributing source in terms of the static stress drop released non-uniformly on the causative fault plane rather than with the whole seismic source in terms of magnitude. Here the model is simplified such that ground motions at a rock or firm soil site near extended vertical strike-slip faults are dominated by direct shear waves. The proposed model is tested by comparing its predictions with strong ground motion observations from the 1979 Imperial Valley and the 1984 Morgan Hill earthquakes. The results have revealed that ground motions in the near-source region can be adequately predicted using the asperity model with appropriate calibration factors. The directivity effect of ground motion in the near-source region is negligible for high-frequency accelerations. The cut-off frequency (?_max?) at a site is an important parameter in the near-source region. Higher values of ?_max yield higher estimates of peak ground accelerations. For high-frequency structures, ?_max should be carefully estimated. In the near- source region both non-uniform and uniform source models can produce non-stationary high-frequency ground motions. Peak motions may not be caused by the nearest sections of the fault (even if the uniform source model is considered).     

Seismic crust structure beneath the Aegean region in southwest Turkey from radial anisotropic inversion of Rayleigh and Love surface waves

The Turkish plate is covered by hundreds of accelerometer and broadband seismic stations with less than 50 km inter-station distance providing high-quality earthquake recordings within the last decade. We utilize part of these stations to extract the fundamental mode Rayleigh and Love surface wave phase and group velocity data in the period range 5–20 s to determine the crust structure beneath the Aegean region in southwest Turkey. The observed surface wave signals are interpreted using both single-station and two-station techniques. A tomographic inversion technique is employed to obtain the two-dimensional group velocity maps from the single-station group velocities. One-dimensional velocity–depth profiles under each two-dimensional mesh point, which are jointly interpreted to acquire the three-dimensional image of the shear-wave velocities underneath the study area, are attained by utilizing the least-squares inversion technique, which is repeated for both Rayleigh and Love surface waves. The isotropic crust structure cannot jointly invert the observed Rayleigh and Love surface waves where the radial anisotropic crust better describes the observed surface wave data. The intrusive magmatic activity related to the northward subducting African plate under the Turkish plate results the crust structure deformations, which we think, causing the observed radial anisotropy throughout complex pattern of dykes and sills. The magma flow resulting in the mineral alignment within dykes and sills contributes to the observed anisotropy. Due to the existence of dykes, the radial anisotropy in the upper crust is generally negative, i.e., vertically polarized S-waves (Vsv) are faster than horizontally polarized S-waves (Vsh). Due to the existence of sills, the radial anisotropy in the middle-to-lower crust is generally positive, i.e., horizontally polarized S-waves (Vsh) are faster than vertically polarized S-waves (Vsv). Similar radial anisotropic results to those of the single-station analyses are obtained by the two-station analyses utilizing the cross-correlograms. The widespread volcanic and plutonic rocks in the region are consistent with the current seismic interpretations of the crustal deformations.     

西昌地区地方震尾波衰减Q值

基于单次散射模型的尾波动功率谱分析法,利用西昌遥测台网地震波实时处理系统记录的２４个地震数字化波形资料,计算了西昌地区地球介质对应于１３个不同的ＱＣ值,在１．０－２０．０Ｈｚ频率范围内,以幂函数ＱＣ＝ＱＣｆ＾ｎ拟合ＱＣ值随的变化关系,其中Ｑ０值在４３．０－８２．４之间,ｎ值在０．２４－０．９４之间,平均值分别为６６．２和０．５３。     

Attenuation of multiple ScS waves beneath the Japanese Arc

36 pairs of multiply-reflected ScS waves from deep earthquakes around Japan are analyzed to investigate the anelastic properties of the mantle on the continental and oceanic sides of the dipping slab. The average Q-value for shear waves passing through the mantle on the oceanic side is found to be 226 in the frequency range 10–40 mHz. This Q-value is in good agreement with the Q models SL8 (Anderson and Hart, 1978) and QBS (Sailor and Dziewonski, 1978) which have been derived from free oscillation data. Assuming that the Q-value for the mantle deeper than 400 km on the continental side of the Japanese Arc is the same as that for the model SL8, we obtain a value of Q = 53 in the upper mantle above the dipping slab beneath the Sea of Japan. Higher Q-values are obtained for the mantle behind the northern Izu-Bonin arc.     

On the attenuation of sea waves by rain

Abstract

Some conflicting evidence on Reynolds' (1900) hypothesis that rain should attenuate any wave motion on the sea surface is discussed. It is concluded that rain drops ought to produce vortex rings in the sea which mix the water to a sufficient depth to affect most waves, as asserted by Reynolds. By introducing vertical and horizontal eddy viscosities to model the mixing process, an estimate is found for the rate of attenuation of wave energy by the rain. Consequently, the net effect on the wave field of attenuation by rain and generation by wind is calculated.