山东半岛三个旅游城市的旅游气候舒适度分析

该文分析了山东半岛(烟台、青岛和威海市区为代表)2005—2015年夏半年(4—9月)最高温度、相对湿度和风速的气候概况。通过这3种气象要素计算出人体舒适度指数,进而得到影响旅游气候的舒适度:得出山东半岛旅游气候舒适度变化小,在夏半年除4月份外,其他月份舒适度相差不大,其中6月份舒适度最好。山东半岛旅游气候舒适度较好,并且相差不大,其中烟台市和威海市相对湿度和舒适天数要优于青岛市。     

烟台市夏季气候特征及旅游气候舒适度浅析

文章把烟台市的国家级气象观测站按照地理位置分为5个地区,分析了烟台市2005—2015年夏半年(4—9月)5个地区各自的气候概况。主要为最高气温、相对湿度以及风速。由3种气象要素计算的人体舒适度指数,分析烟台市的旅游气候舒适度。结论如下:烟台市旅游气候舒适度变化较小,在9月份舒适度最好,除4月份外,其他月份舒适度相差不大;烟台市旅游气候舒适度较好,除北部沿海地区和海岛地区旅游气候舒适度年变化较大外,其余地区年变化较小。     

华山旅游气候舒适度时空变化分析

利用华山站1960-2011年的气温、湿度、风速、日照、降水、总云量、低云量和大风日数等日平均气象资料,采用人体舒适度指数和寒冷指数作为旅游气候舒适度评价指标,对华山旅游区的气候特点、人体舒适度及舒适度时空分布特征等方面进行了分析和评价。研究结果表明:华山旅游风景区气温、相对湿度和大风日数3个气候因素的组合比较优越,气温对人体舒适度起主导作用。华山旅游区各月月均气温随着时间的推移均有不同程度的升高,使得华山旅游区各月的舒适程度增加;华山的地理环境导致其常年多风,且风速偏大,6-9月的大于3.4 m/s,有助于空气流动、增强乱流,降低炎热感觉,提高人体舒适度指数。华山旅游区在6-8月平均气温仅为15.5℃,平均风速为3.7 m/s,为华山旅游的人体舒适度最高的月份;4、5、9、10月为华山旅游区人体舒适度适中的月份;3和11月为很冷;2和12月为极度寒冷;1月有冻伤危害。     

攀西地区森林康养区划研究

利用1971~2020年气象观测资料,采用文献研究法、专家打分法、层次分析法(AHP)分析森林康养指标,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP),计算各地人体舒适度综合指数,对攀西地区森林康养进行区划研究。结果表明：安宁河沿线的西昌、德昌、宁南、攀枝花、仁和、米易、盐边为最适宜森林康养的区县,属冬令避寒型,是养老、病后康复和疾病疗养的首选之地;攀西地区西部、北部、东部的人体舒适度在夏半年普遍感觉舒适,冬半年较冷,而在中部和南部则是全年都比较舒适,尤其冬天很暖和,阳光充足,舒适感较高,适宜长期居住。     

丽水市旅游气候舒适度分析

采用人体舒适度气象指数（BCMI）、寒冷指数（CI）、温湿指数（THI）和度假气候指数（HCI）等4个综合性的气候指标,对丽水市的旅游气候舒适度进行了分析评价,并着重对比分析了BCMI和HCI对旅游气候适宜性的表征能力。结果表明：丽水市全年有8个月BCMI处在4～6级之间,属一类气候适宜区;冬季CI值较低,无严寒现象,夏季低海拔地区THI值偏高,但海拔600 m以上地区（约占市域面积6成）THI值较低,适宜“避暑纳凉”;HCI比传统的BCMI表现的更客观、更全面,它不仅考虑了气候的热舒适性影响,还考虑了降水和云量对旅游出行及观光的影响,且就时间尺度而言,HCI更适合旅游舒适度逐日预报的开展。     

气候康养旅游指数和人体舒适度研究进展

气候康养旅游指数是人体舒适度在气候康养旅游中的应用,旨在表征旅游目的地气候环境状态,是综合衡量旅游者气候幸福感的指标。本文检索了Web of Science和中国知网数据库进行可视化分析,阐释气候康养旅游和人体舒适度指数的内涵,总结气候康养旅游和人体舒适度指数的历史演进,探讨气候康养旅游指数研究存在的问题和对策,以期为未来气候康养旅游指数的深入研究和产业可持续发展提供理论支持。结果表明：（1）英文研究更关注旅游满意度和竞争力,而中文研究更关注人体舒适度、气候舒适度和康养旅游。（2）人体舒适度指标主要由气象因子和服装热阻等构成,旨在反映人体对环境舒适度的感受,而气候康养旅游指数不仅涵盖了气象因子、审美因素,还考虑了空气质量、氧含量等康养因素,旨在综合评估旅游活动的适宜性和旅行者气候康养的效果。     

普洱市宜居气候适宜性分析

气候舒适的程度及持续时间的长短,是影响旅游发展和人类居住环境适应性的重要因素。基于1981 2010年普洱市10个县区气象站的日平均气温、相对湿度及风速等常规气象观测资料,对季节划分、气温极值和平均气温空间分布进行了分析,计算舒适度指数(包括温湿指数、风寒指数、人体舒适度指数),研究了普洱市的宜居气候舒适性。结果表明:普洱市夏季90%的区域平均气温为20~24℃,仅有东部和中部少数河谷地带超过24℃;冬季90%的区域平均气温均在10℃以上。冬半年全市最低气温低于0℃的年平均日数不足1天,夏半年全市最高气温高于35.0℃的年平均日数不足4天。因此普洱市"冬无严寒、夏无酷暑",全年有6~9个月的春秋宜人气候,是典型的全年"人体感觉舒适"的宜居气候区,尤以夏半年最为舒适。近10年普洱市快速增长的旅游总人数和完成的GDP进一步说明普洱市的宜居和旅游的气候适宜性。     

中国雨季的气候学特征

利用中国740站气候平均逐候降雨量对中国的主雨季进行定义,并对雨季（包括主雨季,春雨和秋雨）的气候学特征进行了讨论。结果表明:全国主雨季最早爆发于华南中部,最晚结束于华西地区。主雨季能持续4到14候不等,雨量占年总降水的30%～60%。主雨季在中国东部为季风雨季,自南向北推进;在西部受西风带影响,北方略早于南方, 且局地性强。中国雨季具有明显的区域性和阶段性特征。中国气候的夏季降水时间序列主要反映了季节循环特征, 但气候季节内振荡（CISO）对东部雨季的持续和推进具有明显的调制作用,其中长江中下游及其以南地区以30～60天周期为主。     

综合极端气候指数的定义和趋势分析

综合极端气候指数对于极端气候变化监测、整体认识区域极端气候变化趋势及其原因和影响,具有实际意义。根据中国常年极端气候特点和不同种类极端气候事件的经济社会影响,选取全国平均高温日数、低温日数、强降水日数、沙尘天气日数、大风日数、干旱面积百分率和登陆热带气旋频数等7种极端气候指标,定义两个综合极端气候指数,分别为7种极端气候指标简单(等值权重)合成的综合指数I和加权(差异权重)合成的综合指数II。综合指数II主要依据各种极端气候事件引发的灾害严重程度及其社会影响大小,分别确定其对应指标的相对重要性和权重系数。分析结果表明:1956～2008年,综合指数I序列表现出明显的下降趋势,说明中国地区常见的极端气候事件总体有不断减少、减弱的趋势;同期综合指数II序列没有表现出明显的升降趋势变化,说明对中国地区具有重大经济和社会影响的极端气候事件频率总体上没有发生明显变化。就各个单项极端气候指数变化来看,全国平均年高温日数、强降水日数和干旱面积百分率呈上升趋势,但除高温日数外,其他指数趋势变化均不显著;全国平均年低温日数、沙尘天气日数和大风日数呈下降趋势,且趋势性均很显著;登陆中国大陆的热带气旋频数有所减少,但趋势不很明显。因此,在全球气候显著变暖的半个多世纪内,中国地区多数常见的极端气候事件发生频率,或者显著减少,或者变化不明显;而对全国经济和社会具有重大影响的主要极端气候事件,其频率总体上未见明显趋势变化。     

中国夏季极端酷暑的气候统计和趋势分析

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 300 stations in China from 1958 to 2008, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature extremes （HTEs, maximum temperatures higher than 35℃） are studied with a focus on the long-term trends. Although the number of HTE days display well-defined sandwich spatial structures with significant decreasing trends in central China and increasing trends in northern China and southern China, the authors show that the decrease of HTE days in central China occurs mainly in the early period before the 1980s, and a significant increase of HTE days dominates most of the stations after the 1980s. The authors also reveal that there is a jump-like acceleration in the number of HTE days at most stations across China since the mid 1990s, especially in South China, East China, North China, and northwest China.     

近30年四川冰雹气候特征

利用四川省148个站点1978—2007年的30年逐日观测资料,对四川省冰雹发生分布情况进行了统计分析。结果表明：冰雹日数高原山地多于盆地,其年际变化主要有准两年和6a的振荡周期;冰雹日数总体呈下降趋势,高原下降趋势更为明显;冰雹发生频率以夏季最多,春、秋季次之,冬季最少;地理位置和海拔高度相近的站点,冰雹发生频率的月际变化特征相似。     

中国主要河流流域极端降水变化特征

利用中国1956-2008年逐日降水量资料,以全国主要河流流域为研究区域,分析了年最大日降水量、年暴雨（日降水量≥50.0 mm）日数的多年平均状况及长期变化趋势。分析表明,近53年,全国平均年最大日降水量没有明显的线性变化趋势,但全国范围内多数气象站点年最大日降水量呈现出增加趋势,并存在南方流域增加、北方流域减少的变化趋势,这种变化特征在2001年以来表现更加突出。全国平均年暴雨日数呈不显著的增多趋势,20世纪90年代最多,70年代最少。空间上,我国南北方流域年暴雨日数呈现相反的变化特征,南方流域多呈上升趋势,北方流域呈减少趋势。     

Change in Extreme Climate Events over China Based on CMIP5

The changes in a selection of extreme climate indices(maximum of daily maximum temperature(TXx),minimum of daily minimum temperature(TNn),annual total precipitation when the daily precipitation exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation(very wet days,R95p),and the maximum number of consecutive days with less than 1 mm of precipitation(consecutive dry days,CDD))were projected using multi-model results from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project in the early,middle,and latter parts of the 21st century under different Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)emissions scenarios.The results suggest that TXx and TNn will increase in the future and,moreover,the increases of TNn under all RCPs are larger than those of TXx.R95p is projected to increase and CDD to decrease significantly.The changes in TXx,TNn,R95p,and CDD in eight sub-regions of China are different in the three periods of the 21st century,and the ranges of change for the four indices under the higher emissions scenario are projected to be larger than those under the lower emissions scenario.The multi-model simulations show remarkable consistency in their projection of the extreme temperature indices,but poor consistency with respect to the extreme precipitation indices.More substantial inconsistency is found in those regions where high and low temperatures are likely to happen for TXx and TNn,respectively.For extreme precipitation events(R95p),greater uncertainty appears in most of the southern regions,while for drought events(CDD)it appears in the basins of Xinjiang.The uncertainty in the future changes of the extreme climate indices increases with the increasing severity of the emissions scenario.     

长江三峡库区旅游气候资源评估

利用长江三峡库区部分站点1961～1990年的气温、降水、相对湿度等气候资料，结合库区的自然景观特点分析评估了库区丰富的旅游气候资源，并计算了库区人体舒适度指数，介绍了库区的适宜旅游季节。     

Seasonal Prediction of Monthly Precipitation in China Using Large-Scale Climate Indices

In this study, seasonal predictions were applied to precipitation in China on a monthly basis based on a multivariate linear regression with an adaptive choice of predictors drawn from regularly updated climate indices with a two to twelve month lead time.A leave-one-out cross validation was applied to obtain hindcast skill at a 1% significance level.The skill of forecast models at a monthly scale and their significance levels were evaluated using Anomaly Correlation Coefficients(ACC) and Coefficients Of De...     

Interannual Variation and Statistical Prediction of Summer Dry and Hot Days in South China from 1970 to 2018

The frequent occurrence of dry and hot(DH) days in South China in summer has a negative impact on social development and human health. This study explored the variation characteristics of DH days and the possible reasons for this knotty problem. The findings revealed a notable increase in the number of DH days across most stations, indicating a significant upward trend. Additionally, DH events were observed to occur frequently. The number of DH days increased during 1970–1990, decreased from 199...     

Changes in Seasonal Cycle and Extremes in China during the Period 1960–2008

Recent trends in seasonal cycles in China are analyzed, based on a homogenized dataset of daily temperatures at 541 stations during the period 1960–2008. Several indices are defined for describing the key features of a seasonal cycle, including local winter/summer (LW/LS) periods and local spring/autumn phase (LSP/LAP). The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition method is applied to determine the indices for each year. The LW period was found to have shortened by 2–6 d (10 yr)-1, mainly due to an earlier end to winter conditions, with the LW mean temperature having increased by 0.2°C–0.4°C (10 yr)?1, over almost all of China. Records of the most severe climate extremes changed less than more typical winter conditions did. The LS period was found to have lengthened by 2–4 d (10 yr)?1, due to progressively earlier onsets and delayed end dates of the locally defined hot period. The LS mean temperature increased by 0.1°C–0.2°C (10 yr)-1 in most of China, except for a region in southern China centered on the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In contrast to the winter cases, the warming trend in summer was more prominent in the most extreme records than in those of more typical summer conditions. The LSP was found to have advanced significantly by about 2 d (10 yr)-1 in most of China. Changes in the autumn phase were less prominent. Relatively rapid changes happened in the 1980s for most of the regional mean indices dealing with winter and in the 1990s for those dealing with summer.     

The relationship between spring soil moisture and summer hot extremes over North China

The increase in the occurrence of hot extremes is known to have resulted in serious consequences for human society and ecosystems. However,our ability to seasonally predict hot extremes remains poor,largely due to our limited understanding of slowly evolving earth system components such as soil moisture,and their interactions with climate. In this study,we focus on North China,and investigate the relationship of the spring soil moisture condition to summer hot extremes using soil moisture data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System and observational temperature for the period 1981–2008. It is found that local soil moisture condition in spring is closely linked to summer hot days and heat waves over North China,accounting for 19%–34% of the total variances. Spring soil moisture anomalies can persist to the summer season,and subsequently alter latent and sensible heat fluxes,thus having significant effects on summer hot extremes. Our findings indicate that the spring soil moisture condition can be a useful predictor for summer hot days and heat waves over North China.