A comparison of regional monsoon variability using monsoon indices

The present study aims to (a) examine meteorological basis for construction of regional monsoon indices and (b) explore the commonality and differences among tropical regional monsoons, especially the teleconnection and monsoon–ENSO relationship. We show that the area-averaged summer precipitation intensity is generally a meaningful precipitation index for tropical monsoons because it represents very well both the amplitude of annual cycle and the leading mode of year-to-year rainfall variability with a nearly uniform spatial pattern. The regional monsoon circulation indices can be defined in a unified way (measuring monsoon trough vorticity) for seven tropical monsoon regions, viz.: Indian, Australian, western North Pacific, North and South American, and Northern and Southern African monsoons. The structures of the tropical monsoons are commonly characterized by a pair of upper-level double anticyclones residing in the subtropics of both hemispheres; notably the winter hemispheric anticyclone has a barotropic structure and is a passive response. Two types of upper-level teleconnection patterns are identified. One is a zonal wave train emanating from the double anticyclones downstream along the westerly jets in both hemispheres, including Indian, Northern African and Australian monsoons; the other is a meridional wave train emanating from the double anticyclones polewards, such as the South American and western North Pacific monsoons. Over the past 55 years all regional summer monsoons have non-stationary relationship with ENSO except the Australian monsoon. The regional monsoon–ENSO relationship is found to have common changing points in 1970s. The relationships were enhanced for the western North Pacific, Northern African, North American and South American summer monsoons, but weakened for the Indian summer monsoon (with a recovery in late 1990s). Regardless the large regional differences, the monsoon precipitations over land areas of all tropical monsoon regions are significantly correlated with the ENSO, suggesting that ENSO drives global tropical monsoon rainfall variability. These results provide useful guidance for monitoring sub-seasonal to seasonal variations of the regional monsoons currently done at NCEP and for assessment of the climate models’ performances in representing regional and global monsoon variability.     

Pacific decadal oscillation and variability of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Recent studies have furnished evidence for interdecadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The importance of this phenomenon in causing persistent anomalies over different regions of the globe has drawn considerable attention in view of its relevance in climate assessment. Here, we examine multi-source climate records in order to identify possible signatures of this longer time scale variability on the Indian summer monsoon. The findings indicate a coherent inverse relationship between the inter-decadal fluctuations of Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and the Indian monsoon rainfall during the last century. A warm (cold) phase of the Pacific interdecadal variability is characterized by a decrease (increase) in the monsoon rainfall and a corresponding increase (decrease) in the surface air temperature over the Indian subcontinent. This interdecadal relationship can also be confirmed from the teleconnection patterns evident from long-period sea level pressure (SLP) dataset. The SLP anomalies over South and Southeast Asia and the equatorial west Pacific are dynamically consistent in showing an out-of-phase pattern with the SLP anomalies over the tropical central-eastern Pacific. The remote influence of the Pacific interdecadal variability on the monsoon is shown to be associated with prominent signals in the tropical and southern Indian Ocean indicative of coherent inter-basin variability on decadal time scales. If indeed, the atmosphere–ocean coupling associated with the Pacific interdecadal variability is independent from that of the interannual El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), then the climate response should depend on the evolutionary characteristics of both the time scales. It is seen from our analysis that the Indian monsoon is more vulnerable to drought situations, when El Niño events occur during warm phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability. Conversely, wet monsoons are more likely to prevail, when La Niña events coincide during cold phases of the Pacific interdecadal variability.     

Summer Sahel-ENSO teleconnection and decadal time scale SST variations

The correlation between Sahel rainfall and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the northern summer has been varying for the last fifty years. We propose that the existence of periods of weak or strong relationship could result from an interaction with the global decadal scale sea surface temperature (SST) background. The main modes of SST variability have been extracted through a principal component analysis with Varimax rotation. The correlations between a July-September Sahel rainfall index and these SST modes have been computed on a 20-year running window between 1945 and 1993. The correlations with the interannual ENSO-SST mode are negative, not significant in the 1960s during the transition period from the wet climate phasis to the long-running drought in the Sahel, but then were significant since 1976. During the former period, the correlations between the Sahel rainfall index and the other SST modes (expressing mostly on quasi and multi-decadal scales) are the highest, in particular correlations with the tropical Atlantic “dipole”. Correlations between Sahel and Guinea Coast rainfall are also significantly negative. After 1970, the Sahel-Guinea Coast rainfall correlations are no longer significant, and the ENSO-SST mode becomes the only one significantly correlated with Sahel rainfall, especially due to the impact of warm events. The partial correlations between the ENSO-SST mode and the Sahel rainfall index, when the influence of the other SST modes are eliminated, are significant over all the 20-year running periods between 1945 and 1993, suggesting that this summer teleconnection could be modulated by the decadal scale SST background. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses reproduce accurately the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation after 1968. In particular a regional West African Monsoon Index (WAMI), combining wind speed anomalies at 925 and 200?hPa, is highly correlated with the July-September Sahel rainfall index. A warm ENSO event is associated both with an eastward mean sea level pressure gradient between the eastern tropical Pacific and the tropical Atlantic and with a northward pressure gradient along the western coast of West Africa. This pattern leads to enhanced trade winds over the tropical Atlantic and to weaker moisture advection over West Africa, consistent with a weaker monsoon system strength and a weaker Southern Hemisphere Hadley circulation. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses do not reproduce accurately the decadal variability of the atmospheric circulation over West Africa because of artifical biases. Therefore the impact of the decadal scale pattern of the atmospheric circulation has been investigated with atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) sensitivity experiments, by forcing the ARPEGE-Climat model with different combinations of an El Niño-like SST pattern with the pattern of the main mode of decadal scale SST variability where the hightest weights are located in the Pacific and Indian basins. AGCM outputs show that the decadal scale SST variations weakly affect Sahel rainfall variability but that they do induce an indirect effect on Sahel rainfall by enhancing the impact of the warm ENSO phases after 1980, through an increase in the fill-in of the monsoon trough and a moisture advection deficit over West Africa.     

Interdecadal change in the relationship of southern China summer rainfall with tropical Indo-Pacific SST

The present study investigates the interdecadal change in the relationship between southern China (SC) summer rainfall and tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). It is found that the pattern of tropical Indo-Pacific SST anomalies associated with SC summer rainfall variability tends to be opposite between the 1950–1960s and the 1980-1990s. Above-normal SC rainfall corresponds to warmer SST in the tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO) and cooler SST in the equatorial central Pacific (ECP) during the 1950–1960s but opposite SST anomalies in these regions during the 1980–1990s. A pronounced difference is also found in anomalous atmospheric circulation linking SEIO SST and SC rainfall between the two periods. In the 1950–1960s, two anomalous vertical circulations are present between ascent over SEIO and ascent over SC, with a common branch of descent over the South China Sea that is accompanied by an anomalous low-level anticyclone. In the 1980–1990s, however, a single anomalous vertical circulation directly connects ascent over SC to descent over SEIO. The change in the rainfall–SST relationship is likely related to a change in the magnitude of SEIO SST forcing and a change in the atmospheric response to the SST forcing due to different mean states. A larger SEIO SST forcing coupled with a stronger and more extensive western North Pacific subtropical high in recent decades induce circulation anomalies reaching higher latitudes, influencing SC directly. Present analysis shows that the SEIO and ECP SST anomalies can contribute to SC summer rainfall variability both independently and in concert. In comparison, there are more cases of concerted contributions due to the co-variability between the Indian and Pacific Ocean SSTs.     

Mid-Holocene monsoons: a multi-model analysis of the inter-hemispheric differences in the responses to orbital forcing and ocean feedbacks

The response of monsoon circulation in the northern and southern hemisphere to 6?ka orbital forcing has been examined in 17 atmospheric general circulation models and 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. The atmospheric response to increased summer insolation at 6?ka in the northern subtropics strengthens the northern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to increased monsoonal precipitation in western North America, northern Africa and China; ocean feedbacks amplify this response and lead to further increase in monsoon precipitation in these three regions. The atmospheric response to reduced summer insolation at 6?ka in the southern subtropics weakens the southern-hemisphere summer monsoons and leads to decreased monsoonal precipitation in northern South America, southern Africa and northern Australia; ocean feedbacks weaken this response so that the decrease in rainfall is smaller than might otherwise be expected. The role of the ocean in monsoonal circulation in other regions is more complex. There is no discernable impact of orbital forcing in the monsoon region of North America in the atmosphere-only simulations but a strong increase in precipitation in the ocean–atmosphere simulations. In contrast, there is a strong atmospheric response to orbital forcing over northern India but ocean feedback reduces the strength of the change in the monsoon although it still remains stronger than today. Although there are differences in magnitude and exact location of regional precipitation changes from model to model, the same basic mechanisms are involved in the oceanic modulation of the response to orbital forcing and this gives rise to a robust ensemble response for each of the monsoon systems. Comparison of simulated and reconstructed changes in regional climate suggest that the coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations produce more realistic changes in the northern-hemisphere monsoons than atmosphere-only simulations, though they underestimate the observed changes in precipitation in all regions. Evaluation of the southern-hemisphere monsoons is limited by lack of quantitative reconstructions, but suggest that model skill in simulating these monsoons is limited.     

积云参数化方案对热带降水年循环模态模拟的影响

本文利用中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室( LASG)发展的大气环流模式(SAMIL),采用Zhang-McFarlane (ZM)和Tiedtke (TDK)两种积云对流参数化方案,讨论了积云对流参数化方案对热带降水年循环模态模拟的影响.结果表明,两种积云对流参数化方案均能合理再现...     

A possible mechanism for the weakening of El Niño-monsoon relationship during the recent decade

Summary Observational data are used to explore the relationship between surface air temperature anomaly gradients and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). The meridional temperature anomaly gradient across Eurasia during January directed towards equator (pole) is a very good precursor of subsequent excess (deficient) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). This gradient directed towards equator (pole) indicates below (above) normal blocking activity over Eurasia, which leads to less (more) than normal southward penetration of dry and cold mid latitude westerlies over the Indian monsoon region, which ultimately strengthens (weakens) the normal monsoon circulation. These findings suggest a mechanism for the weakening of relationship between El Niño and ISMR.Though there is a strong fundamental association between El Niño (warm ENSO) and deficient Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), this relationship was weak during the period 1921–1940 and the recent decade (1991–1998). During the El Niño years of 1921–1940 and 1901–1998, the meridional temperature anomaly gradient across Eurasia (Eurasian forcing) during January was directed towards equator. On the other hand, during the El Niño years of 1901–1920 and 1941–1990 this gradient was directed towards pole. Thus during 1921–1940 and 1991–1998, the adverse impact of El Niño on Indian monsoon was reduced by the favorable Eurasian forcing resulting in the weak association between El Niño and ISMR. This finding disagrees with the hypothesis of winter warming over the Eurasian continent as the reason for the observed weakening of this relationship during recent decade.     

Global monsoons in the mid-Holocene and oceanic feedback

The response of the six major summer monsoon systems (the North American monsoon, the northern Africa monsoon, the Asia monsoon, the northern Australasian monsoon, the South America monsoon and the southern Africa monsoon) to mid-Holocene orbital forcing has been investigated using a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (FOAM), with the focus on the distinct roles of the direct insolation forcing and oceanic feedback. The simulation result is also found to compare well with the NCAR CSM. The direct effects of the change in insolation produce an enhancement of the Northern Hemisphere monsoons and a reduction of the Southern Hemisphere monsoons. Ocean feedbacks produce a further enhancement of the northern Africa monsoon and the North American monsoon. However, ocean feedbacks appear to weaken the Asia monsoon, although the overall effect (direct insolation forcing plus ocean feedback) remains a strengthened monsoon. The impact of ocean feedbacks on the South American and southern African monsoons is relatively small, and therefore these regions, especially the South America, experienced a reduced monsoon regime compared to present. However, there is a strong ocean feedback on the northern Australian monsoon that negates the direct effects of orbital changes and results in a strengthening of austral summer monsoon precipitation in this region. A new synthesis is made for mid-Holocene paleoenvironmental records and is compared with the model simulations. Overall, model simulations produce changes in regional climates that are generally consistent with paleoenvironmental observations.     

Using idealized snow forcing to test teleconnections with the Indian summer monsoon in the Hadley Centre GCM

Anomalous heavy snow during winter or spring has long been regarded as a possible precursor of deficient Indian monsoon rainfall during the subsequent summer. However previous work in this field is inconclusive, in terms of the mechanism that communicates snow anomalies to the monsoon summer, and even the region from which snow has the most impact. In this study we explore these issues in coupled and atmosphere-only versions of the Hadley Centre model. A 1050-year control integration of the HadCM3 coupled model, which well represents the seasonal cycle of snow cover over the Eurasian continent, is analysed and shows evidence for weakened monsoons being preceded by strong snow forcing (in the absence of ENSO) over either the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau or north/west Eurasia regions. However, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of springtime interannual variability in snow depth shows the leading mode to have opposite signs between these two regions, suggesting that competing mechanisms may be possible. To determine the dominant region, ensemble integrations are carried out using HadAM3, the atmospheric component of HadCM3, and a variety of anomalous snow forcing initial conditions obtained from the control integration of the coupled model. Forcings are applied during spring in separate experiments over the Himalaya/Tibetan Plateau and north/west Eurasia regions, in conjunction with climatological SSTs in order to avoid the direct effects of ENSO. With the aid of idealized forcing conditions in sensitivity tests, we demonstrate that forcing from the Himalaya region is dominant in this model via a Blanford-type mechanism involving reduced surface sensible heat and longwave fluxes, reduced heating of the troposphere over the Tibetan Plateau and consequently a reduced meridional tropospheric temperature gradient which weakens the monsoon during early summer. Snow albedo is shown to be key to the mechanism, explaining around 50% of the perturbation in sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau, and accounting for the majority of cooling through the troposphere.     

A multi-model analysis of the role of the ocean on the African and Indian monsoon during the mid-Holocene

We investigate the role of the ocean feedback on the climate in response to insolation forcing during the mid-Holocene (6,000 year BP) using results from seven coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models. We examine how the dipole in late summer sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Atlantic increases the length of the African monsoon, how this dipole structure is created and maintained, and how the late summer SST warming in the northwest Indian Ocean affects the monsoon retreat in this sector. Similar mechanisms are found in all of the models, including a strong wind evaporation feedback and changes in the mixed layer depth that enhance the insolation forcing, as well as increased Ekman transport in the Atlantic that sharpens the Atlantic dipole pattern. We also consider changes in interannual variability over West Africa and the Indian Ocean. The teleconnection between variations in SST and Sahelian precipitation favor a larger impact of the Atlantic dipole mode in this region. In the Indian Ocean, the strengthening of the Indian dipole structure in autumn has a damping effect on the Indian dipole mode at the interannual time scale.     

东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态及其与太平洋年代际振荡的关系

利用全球陆地月平均降水资料、英国气象局哈德莱中心的月平均海表温度距平(SSTA)资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析大气环流资料,探讨东亚夏季风降水年代际变率及其与太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)的联系。研究指出:东亚夏季风降水年代际变异模态以及PDO均在1976年前后呈现显著的年代际转折,并且东亚夏季风降水与PDO在年代际尺度上具有较好的相关关系。PDO能够在对流层低层激发出与年代际东亚夏季风环流较为相似的大气环流异常特征,表明东亚夏季风环流的年代际变化可能受大气外强迫因子PDO在对流层低层的外源强迫作用影响,最终导致东亚夏季风降水发生年代际变化。     

Variability of Summer Monsoon Rainfall in India on Inter-Annual and Decadal Time Scales

Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall(ISMR)exhibits a prominent inter-annual variability known as troposphere biennial oscillation.A season of deficient June to September monsoon rainfall in India is followed by warm sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over the western Pacific Ocean.These anomalies persist until the following monsoon,which yields normal or excessive rainfall.Monsoon rainfall in India has shown decadal variability in the form of 30 year epochs of alternately occurring frequent and infrequent drought monsoons since1841,when rainfall measurements began in India.Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well known decadal oscillations in SSTs of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have the same period of approximately 60 years and nearly the same temporal phase.In both of these variabilities,anomalies in monsoon heat source,such as deep convection,and middle latitude westerlies of the upper troposphere over south Asia have prominent roles.     

North-East monsoon rainfall extremes over the southern peninsular India and their association with El Niño

The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don’t. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than −1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for variations in NE monsoon rainfall extremes during El Niño years. This study indicates that despite having strong warming in the central and eastern Pacific, NE monsoon rainfall variations over the southern peninsular India is mostly determined by SST gradient over the Indo-western Pacific region and number of systems formation in the Bay of Bengal and their land fall. The paper concludes that though the favourable large scale circulation induced by Pacific is important in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall the local air sea interaction plays a key role in modulating or driving rainfall extremes associated with El Niño.     

Relationships between interannual variability in the Arabian Sea and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Summary The interannual variability of the monthly mean upper layer thickness for the central Arabian Sea (5°N-15° N and 60° E-70° E) from a numerical model of the Indian Ocean during the period 1954–1976 is investigated in relation to Indian monsoon rainfall variability. The variability in the surface structure of the Somali Current in the western Arabian Sea is also briefly discussed. It is found that these fields show a great deal of interannual variability that is correlated with variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. Model upper layer thickness (H) is taken as a surrogate variable for thermocline depth, which is assumed to be correlated with sea surface temperature. In general, during the period 1967 to 1974, which is a period of lower than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper ocean warm water sphere is thicker (deeper thermocline which implies warmer surface water); in contrast, during the period 1954–1966, which is a period of higher than normal monsoon rainfall, the upper warm water sphere is thinner (shallower thermocline which implies cooler surface water). The filtered time series of uppper layer thickness indieates the presence of a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) during the wet monsoon period, but this QBO signal is conspicuously absent during the dry monsoon period.Since model H primarily responds to wind stress curl, the interannual variability of the stress curl is investigated by means of an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. The first three EOF modes represent more than 72% of the curl variance. The spatial patterns for these modes exhibit many elements of central Arabian Sea climatology. Features observed include the annual variation in the intensity of the summer monsoon ridge in the Arabian Sea and the annual zonal oscillation of the ridge during pre- and post-monsoon seasons. The time coefficients for the first EOF amplitude indicate the presence of a QBO during the wet monsoon period only, as seen in the ocean upper layer thickness.The variability in the model upper layer thickness is a passive response to variability in the wind field, or more specifically to variability in the Findlater Jet. When the winds are stronger, they drive stronger currents in the ocean and have stronger curl fields associated with them, driving stronger Ekman pumping. They transport more moisture from the southern hemisphere toward the Indian subcontinent, and they also drive a greater evaporative heat flux beneath the Findlater Jet in the Arabian Sea. It has been suggested that variability in the heat content of the Arabian Sea drives variability in Indian monsoon rainfall. The results of this study suggest that the opposite is true, that the northern Arabian Sea responds passively to variability in the monsoon system.With 10 Figures     

Periodicity in intraseasonal variation of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, India in relation to synoptic disturbances

Summary The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state of eastern India, shows characteristic intraseasonal and interannual variability, due to interaction of basic westerly flow with orography and the synoptic scale monsoon disturbances including low-pressure systems and cyclonic circulations extending upto mid-tropospheric level (LPSC). These systems normally develop over the north Bay of Bengal and move west-northwestwards along the monsoon trough. The essence of this study is to find out the main features of the intraseasonal variability of daily monsoon rainfall over Orissa in relation to synoptic systems like LPSC and its implication on the interannual variation of rainfall. For this purpose, the actual and mean daily rainfall data of 31 uniformly distributed stations, six homogeneous regions and Orissa as a whole during monsoon season (June–September) over a period of 20 years (1980–1999) are subjected to auto-correlation and power spectrum analyses. The actual and average daily scores of significant EOFs and actual daily occurrence along with daily probability of occurrence of the LPSC influencing rainfall over Orissa during the same period are also subjected to auto-correlation and power spectrum analyses. The intraseasonal variation of monsoon rainfall over Orissa and different homogeneous regions is dominated by the synoptic mode (3–9 days) of variation due to the similar mode of variation in the occurrence of LPSC influencing the rainfall. The seasonal rainfall and hence the interannual variation depends on the intraseasonal variation of rainfall modulated with the synoptic mode of variation in the occurrence of the LPSC. The occurrence of LPSC over the northwest (NW) Bay/NW and adjoining northeast (NE) Bay and its subsequent movement and persistence over Orissa and east Madhya Pradesh & Chhattisgarh in synoptic mode (3–6 days) alongwith absence of similar mode in the occurrence of the LPSC over NE Bay, Gangetic West Bengal (GWB) in the north and west central (WC) Bay to the south leads to excess rainfall over different homogeneous regions and Orissa as a whole. The reverse is the case in deficient years over Orissa and all homogeneous regions except southwest Orissa. The occurrence of the LPSC over GWB in synoptic mode (about 5 days) alongwith absence of synoptic mode in the occurrence of the LPSC over NW Bay leads to deficient rainfall year over southwest Orissa. Correspondence: U. C. Mohanty, Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi Hauz Khas, New Delhi 110016, India     

The Indian summer monsoon drought of 2002 and its linkage with tropical convective activity over northwest Pacific

The Indian subcontinent witnessed a severe monsoon drought in 2002, which largely resulted from a major rainfall deficiency in the month of July. While moderate El Nino conditions prevailed during this period, the atmospheric convective activity was anomalously enhanced over northwest and north-central Pacific in the 10–20°N latitude belt; and heavy rainfall occurred over this region in association with a series of northward moving tropical cyclones. Similar out-of-phase rainfall variations over the Indian region and the northwest (NW) Pacific have been observed during other instances of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The dynamical linkage corresponding to this out-of-phase rainfall variability is explored in this study by conducting a set of numerical experiments using an atmospheric general circulation model. The results from the model simulations lend credence to the role of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in forcing the out-of-phase precipitation variability over the NW Pacific and the Indian monsoon region. It is seen that the ENSO induced circulation response reveals an anomalous pattern comprising of alternating highs and lows which extend meridionally from the equatorial region into the sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions of west-central Pacific. This meridional pattern is associated with an anomalous cyclonic circulation over NW Pacific, which is found to favor enhanced tropical cyclonic activity and intensified convection over the region. In turn, the intensified convection over NW Pacific induces subsidence and rainfall deficiency over the Indian landmass through anomalous east-west circulation in the 10–20°N latitude belt. Based on the present findings, it is suggested that the convective activity over NW Pacific is an important component in mediating the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection dynamics.     

A study of circulation differences between East-Asian and Indian summer monsoons with their interaction

Primarily based on the 1979 FGGE data an analysis is made of the circulation differences between the East-Asian and Indian summer monsoons together with their oscillation features and also the interplay be-tween various monsoon systems originating from the fact that the Asian monsoon area is divided into the East-Asian and Indian regions, of which the former is demarcated into the Nanhai (the South China Sea) and the Mainland subregions.     

Weakening of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in warming environment

Though over a century long period (1871–2010) the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) series is stable, it does depict the decreasing tendency during the last three decades of the 20th century. Around mid-1970s, there was a major climate shift over the globe. The average all-India surface air temperature also shows consistent rise after 1975. This unequivocal warming may have some impact on the weakening of ISMR. The reduction in seasonal rainfall is mainly contributed by the deficit rainfall over core monsoon zone which happens to be the major contributor to seasonal rainfall amount. During the period 1976–2004, the deficit (excess) monsoons have become more (less) frequent. The monsoon circulation is observed to be weakened. The mid-tropospheric gradient responsible for the maintenance of monsoon circulation has been observed to be weakened significantly as compared to 1901–1975. The warming over western equatorial Indian Ocean as well as equatorial Pacific is more pronounced after mid-70s and the co-occurrence of positive Indian Ocean Dipole Mode events and El Nino events might have reinforced the large deficit anomalies of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during 1976–2004. All these factors may contribute to the weakening of ISMR.     

Peculiar Temporal Structure of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon

ＰｅｃｕｌｉａｒＴｅｍｐｏｒａｌＳｔｒｕｃｔｕｒｅｏｆｔｈｅＳｏｕｔｈＣｈｉｎａＳｅａＳｕｍｍｅｒＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＢｉｎＷａｎｇ①ａｎｄＲｅｎｇｕａｎｇＷｕＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＭｅｔｅｏｒｏｌｏｇｙ，ＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙｏｆＨａｗａｉ，ＵＳＡＲｅｃ...     

Peculiar temporal structure of the south china sea summer monsoon

Beijing located at the junction of four major components of the Asian-Australia monsoon system (the Indian, the western North Pacific, the East Asian subtropical, and the Indonesian-Australian monsoons), the monsoon cli-mate over the South China Sea (SCS) exhibits some unique features. Evidences are presented in this paper to reveal and document the following distinctive features in the temporal structure of the SCS summer monsoon:(1) pronounced monsoon singularities in the lower tropospheric monsoon flows which include the pre-onset and withdrawal easterly surges and the southwesterly monsoon bursts at Julian pentad 34-35 (June 15-24) and pentad 46-47 (August 14-23);(2) four prominent subseasonal cycles (alternative occurrences of climatological active and break monsoons);(3) considerably larger year-to-year variations in convective activity on intraseasonal time scale compared to those over the Bay of Bengal and the Philippine Sea;(4) the redness of the climatological mean spectrum of precipitation / deep convection on synoptic to intraseasona] time scales in the central SCS;(5) a remarkable asymmetry in the seasonal transitions between summer and winter monsoons and an extremely abrupt mid-May transition (the outburst of monsoon rain and the sudden switch in tie lower troposphere winds from an easterly to a westerly regime);(6) the bi-modal interannual variation of summer monsoon onset (normal and delayed modes).In addition, the monsoon rainfall displays enormous east-west gradient over the central SCS. Possible causes for these features are discussed. A number of specific science questions concerning some of the peculiar features are raised for the forthcoming SCS monsoon experiment to address