Increasing fiscal resilience to disasters in the Pacific

Pacific Island countries are among the list of countries that face the highest disaster risk globally—in per capita terms. In recent years, governments in the region have been confronted by a rise in damages from extreme catastrophic events, many increasingly linked to climate change. These events pose significant challenges to Pacific governments in terms of maintaining fiscal stability and the operation of their limited and under-diversified economies and shallow financial sectors. Governments in the region generally play a leading role in domestic economies and are responsible for leading disaster prevention, mitigation, and recovery efforts. Accordingly, measures to improve financial sustainability and the public sector’s ability to provide public services in the aftermath of major disasters must be prioritized. This paper examines the literature on fiscal resilience to disasters, the estimated impacts of major events in the Pacific, and analyses the applicability of available financial instruments to facilitate both ex ante and ex post disaster fiscal risk management in the region. The paper also discusses policies that can improve resilience against fiscal risks.

     

Disasters in Bangladesh

This paper deals with various types of natural disasters which occur very frequently in Bangladesh. Disaster can occur at any time, in any place, in any dimension, and may owe as much to the circumstances as to the scale of the event. With the exception of the man-made disaster of war, famine, fire, pollution, accident and civil strife, the worst disasters follow natural events.Bangladesh is widely known as a land of natural disasters and is highly vulnerable to flood, cyclone and river erosion. By the effects of these disasters the country is now permanently in distress. These disasters have become a regular phenomenon and cause suffering to millions of people of the country since many decades. Besides, it also focuses on policy options concerning disaster management.     

Environmental disasters in social context: toward a preventive and precautionary approach

The paper examines relations between natural hazards and social conditions in disaster, and problems of their integration in disaster management. This must be done against a background of ever-increasing numbers of disasters. The initiating roles and impacts of environmental hazards are acknowledged. However, expanding losses are not explained by increased geophysical risks. To the extent that scientific knowledge or engineering and planning skills are involved, the problems seem more one of (in)effective deployment than major deficiencies. Social analyses suggest the scope of today’s disasters follows primarily from greater concentrations of vulnerable people, exposed in dangerous situations, and lacking adequate protections. Firstly, the question of disaster causality is revisited as a problem of damage diagnostics. A basis is developed from the findings of formal disaster inquiries. Despite their limitations, well-conducted inquiries offer unusually comprehensive anatomies of the social and physical conditions of disasters. They demonstrate and trace out the interplay of environmental, societal, technological, and institutional components of emergencies. In the examples described, environmental hazards are investigated in great detail. Nevertheless, societal preconditions are shown to be more critical. Inadequacies in emergency preparedness, performance, and post-disaster response are highlighted, and for those most at risk. The conclusions present major challenges for the agent-specific view of disasters, and for disaster management preoccupied with natural forces, uncertainty, and emergency responses. Rather, a view of disaster causality emerges emphasizing avoidable failures of preventive, protective, and intervention measures. Evidence is cited to show this is increasingly relevant in so-called natural disasters lacking such inquiries. The discussion considers the relevance of a preventive and precautionary approach in this context. The histories of accident, disease, fire, and crime prevention support arguments for greater attention to context-specific environmental and societal aspects of risk. Aligning disaster management more closely with preventive priorities depends upon a much greater focus on people, places, and livelihoods most at risk, reversing the social processes that put them at risk. It requires listening to their voices and concerns, recognizing and bolstering their resilience. Much more can and should be done to disseminate the protections, from building regulations to insurance, that actually do save so many others in the disasters that happen. As such, the case for greater attention to issues of governance and social justice is strengthened.     

El Ni?o as a consequence of the global oscillation in the dynamics of the earth’s climatic system

During study of the physical nature and potential precursor features of the El Ni?o phenomenon in the Pacific, it was found that a negative large-scale temperature anomaly on the Indian Ocean surface may be one of its significant precursors. This anomaly appears prior to the occurrence of El Ni?o and is accompanied by growth in atmospheric pressure. It gradually extends eastwards along the equator until the zone of planetary convection in the area of the Indonesian Region. The west wind that emerges on the eastern peripherals of the mentioned pressure anomaly leads to reversal of the Pacific segment of the Walker equatorial atmospheric circulation and to a subsequent change in the zonal thermal dipole polarity in the tropical zone of the Pacific (the latter means culmination of the El Ni?o phenomenon). In addition to the mentioned thermobaric anomaly in the Indian Ocean, other obvious signs of large-scale pressure anomalies have been found in the global atmospheric pressure field; these anomalies may be interpreted as manifestations of the intradecadal global oscillation in the dynamics of the modern climatic system. It is suggested that the whole known complex of events related to the El Ni?o phenomenon in the Pacific is a consequence and a regional link of the planetary structure of this global atmospheric phenomenon.     

Characteristics of tropical cyclones making landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico: 1970-2010

This study evaluates impacts from tropical cyclone (TC) landfalls on populated areas located along the Pacific Ocean coast of Mexico. The period of interest is from 1970 through 2010 and an international disaster database is used to identify the impact from the landfalling TCs. More than 30 landfall events occurred during the period; we examined the top 25 TCs based on rainfall accumulation, as well as the top 10 TC-related disasters based on the affected population. Each event resulted in affected population from 20 000 to more than 800 000. Strong winds and heavy rainfall, during periods of one to three days, are associated with property damage and loss of lives. Our results indicate that excessive rainfall accumulations and daily rates, over highly populated areas, are important elements associated with the occurrence of disasters. Six of the top 10 TC-related disasters occurred during El Niño and three during neutral conditions; however, looking at the top 25 events, 10 occurred during El Niño and 10 during neutral conditions. Three case studies that occurred during El Niño events (Liza in 1976, Pauline in 1997, and Lane in 2006) are documented in more detail as they affected areas with different population densities in the southern and northwestern coasts of Mexico.     

Assessment of potential sediment disasters and resilience management of mountain roads using environmental indicators

In recent years, extreme rainfall events occur frequently, causing serious watershed sediment disasters, destroying mountain roads, and endangering the safety of residents' lives and property. This study aims to deal with the spatial change of potential sediment movement on the road slope pre-disaster and to screen disaster hot spots for early warning and control system. The conceptual model is used to simulate the distribution of primary and/or derived disasters on a watershed scale to assess the impact of sediment disasters caused by heavy rain event. Correlation analysis shows that the models in assessment of primary disaster and derived disaster are significantly correlated with the collapse ratio and disaster ratio, respectively. Since the primary disaster has been considered when calculating the derived disaster risk, the terrain subdivision along Provincial Highway 21 (Tai-21) is extracted to understand the derived sediment disaster on the road slope. The model can effectively evaluate the road sections prone to disasters. According to the risk level, the hot spot of road slope disasters and the management of disaster resilience are determined and can be the reference for disaster prevention and control.

     

The beach ridges at Santa,Peru: El Niño,uplift, and prehistory

Recent work on the beach ridges at Santa, Peru (9° s latitude) upholds an earlier hypothesis, based on sedimentary evidence, that the ridges were formed by massive sediment pulses during rains associated with major incursions of the warm water El Niño countercurrent. The ridges can therefore be used to date major El Niño events. The alternate hypothesis for the Santa ridge origin cited minor sequential uplift as the causal factor; this hypothesis has been disproven, though one previously unreported uplift event at about 4200 years B.P. has been identified at Santa. In general, landscape alteration processes such as El Niño floods and tectonic uplift affect human populations, and accurate chronologies of these events are necessary to interpret the archaeological record. Geoarchaeological research offers the key to constructing landscape alteration chronologies, which are also of use to geologists for studies of earthquake prediction, sedimentation processes, and paleoclimatology.     

A new viewpoint of hazard assessment and management for Taiwan��s insurance issues

High rates of urbanization, environmental degradation, and industrial development in disaster-prone areas have all served to increase the extent of damage following catastrophes. Recently, losses from environmental hazards have escalated, which has resulted in a noticeable change in policy, with more emphasis on loss reduction through mitigation, preparedness, and recovery programs. This study focuses on natural disaster management in which the direct risks are posed by the natural disasters themselves. This paper presents a review of issues surrounding natural disaster risk control and insurance in Taiwan. It proposes the use of background information concerning risk control strategies as well as earthquake, typhoon, and flood insurance in Taiwan. Finally, an insurance case study is utilized to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology.     

青海省东部农业区雷电灾害风险评估

利用2005-2013年青海省东部农业区14个县的雷电、雷电灾害、人口数量和生产总值等资料,采用《雷电灾害风险评估技术规范》（DB 50/214-2006）中的雷电灾害易损性风险评估指标,分析了该地的雷电灾害风险及区划,该风险区划对青海省东北农业区防御雷电灾害规划具有很好的参考价值,也是制定科学合理的雷电防护技术路线的重要依据：青海省东部农业区9年间共出现雷电3 801 d,最早出现在3月下旬,最晚结束在11月上旬,雷电出现最多地区为大通县;雷电灾害共出现47次,最早出现在4月,10月份结束,发生最多在6月份,盛夏7月雷电灾害却少,西宁市和湟源县雷电灾害出现最多,湟中县雷电造成的人员伤亡最多,共伤亡11人,大部分在山间劳作的村民和牧民,与青海省东部农业区发生的其它气象灾害相比,雷电灾害最容易造成人员和牲畜伤亡。雷电灾害风险以西宁市为中心,向四周扩散逐渐降低,北部地区相对高于南部地区,西宁市、大通县遭受雷电灾害的可能性程度最大,乐都县虽然近9年没有上报的雷电灾情,但它的雷电灾害风险并不低。     

European space agency’s strategic contribution to seismology

The impacts of disaster events such as earthquakes on economic and human lives are increasing every year, in particular due to the growing urbanization. Until recently, stakeholders involved in disaster risk management focused their efforts mainly on the response phase, immediately after the crisis. Following the recommendations of several recent studies and in order to minimize the increasing impacts of natural disasters, decision-makers and major stakeholders have showed an increasing interest in mitigation activities. Earth Observation (EO) data from space could bring a significant added value to the various phases of the seismic risk management cycle from the mitigation and preparedness phases. Space agencies need to better contribute to the management of geohazards in response to the growing request from the community of users (e.g. seismologists, insurance companies, urban planners). To foster the use of EO remote sensing data, satellite data providers have to take the appropriate measures to remove the policy and technical barriers related to the data access. They have also to increase the awareness of the community of users on the potential benefits that could be gained from the use of EO satellite data. This paper will provide examples of areas where EO remote sensing data from space could bring an added value to the current management of risks and crisis related to earthquakes. Then, the paper will describe the strategic measures undertaken by the European Space Agency in an international framework, to foster the use of satellite data by the various relevant stakeholders.     

Design and implementation of a voluntary collective earthquake insurance policy to cover low-income homeowners in a developing country

Understanding and evaluating disaster risk due to natural hazard events such as earthquakes creates powerful incentives for countries to develop planning options and tools to reduce potential damages. The use of models for earthquake risk evaluation allows obtaining outputs such as the loss exceedance curve, the expected annual loss and the probable maximum loss, which are probabilistic metrics useful for risk analyses, for designing strategies for risk reduction and mitigation, for emergency response strategies and for risk financing. This article presents, based on probabilistic risk models, the design and implementation of a risk transfer instrument to cover the private buildings of the city of Manizales, Colombia. This voluntary collective instrument provides financial protection to both, the estate tax payers and the low-income homeowners through a cross-subsidy strategy; besides, it promotes not only the insurance culture but also the solidarity of the community. The city administration and the insurance industry are promoting this program using the mechanism of the property tax payment. This collective insurance helps the government to access key resources for low-income householders recovery and improve disaster risk management at local level.     

An analysis on disasters management system in China

This paper introduced the principle, institutional framework, and legal construction of Chinese disaster management system, and operating mechanisms of disaster management departments in pre-disaster, response and post-disaster phases were also demonstrated. Although China has basically built the disaster management system, formed national emergency plan system, and gained achievements in some aspects, the disasters management system is still a segmental model and is not an integrated management system. This article analyzes problems of Chinese disaster management system, and puts forward some suggestions for improving and optimizing this system. This can make Chinese disaster management system better respond and handle to disasters risk, and reduce the social and economic losses of disasters caused.     

The insurance industry and IDNDR: Common interests and tasks

Insurance, as a financial hedge against loss, is closely concerned with the problems presented by natural disasters. In many insurance markets, natural perils are covered to a greater or lesser extent by property insurance and various other branches of insurance. This entails making a close study of such perils in order that the premium requirements on the one hand and the loss potential on the other may be correctly estimated. To that end, insurers can draw upon extensive loss data and analyses from all parts of the world.Insurance has an appreciable influence on the behaviour of the public and of industry in the matter of preparedness. By making the right use of the tools of insurance technique, especially deductibles, the insured can be motivated to take preventive measures. After a disaster, the insurance industry gives swift financial help and has, for the most part, an efficient loss settlement organization at its disposal for the purpose.     

青藏高原多灾种自然灾害综合风险管理

青藏高原是中国自然灾害多发、频发重点区域,区内地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决、雪灾等灾种广泛发育,其灾害分布较广,灾损及其影响巨大,已成为高原经济社会可持续、健康发展的一个重要制约因素。高原自然灾害风险等级具有明显的空间异质性。整体上,地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决灾害高危区位于高原南部和东部边缘大片区域,该区域也是高原多灾种频发地带,许多路网和管网均处于该频发地段,其潜在危害巨大。青藏高原地形地貌复杂、气候变化空间异质性较强、冰冻圈发育,交通等基础设施广布,经济条件较差,这些因素形成了多灾种自然灾害发育的主要致灾因子和孕灾环境。高原受多致灾因子共同影响,各灾种承灾体多有重叠之处,亟须加强多灾种自然灾害综合管控研究。综合风险管控主导思路是决策者利用多灾种成灾机理研究结果,通过工程和非工程措施,以及各部门联防联控理念,全过程防范、减缓或规避自然灾害综合风险。具体综合风险管控策略如实时监测/观测、信息共享、部委会商、群测群防、防灾教育培训、保险承担、灾前规划。     

近400年澜沧江源区年平均流量周期特征及其对厄尔尼诺的响应

本文基于重建的1595~2006年澜沧江源区年平均流量(澜沧江流量)和NOAA古气候资料,应用MTM-SVD方法对澜沧江流量周期变化规律及其对厄尔尼诺的响应进行了分析。结果表明,近400年澜沧江流量与厄尔尼诺有显著负相关,在年代际的13.5年和年际的5年周期上存在显著协同变化,并且分别对当年春末和上年秋初的大气环流有很好的响应。在13.5年和5年典型循环过程中,二者都表现出反位相的对应关系,当厄尔尼诺指数偏低(高)时,澜沧江流量偏多(少)。但是进一步分析海温异常空间分布,发现在13.5年周期中,澜沧江流量主要受中部型厄尔尼诺事件影响,而在5年周期循环中,澜沧江流量则主要受东部型厄尔尼诺事件调控。在13.5年典型周期循环中,中部型厄尔尼诺会引起双圈沃克环流异常,同时激发PJ(太平洋-日本涛动)遥相关波列,并影响澜沧江源区气温和降水,从而导致澜沧江流量异常;在5年周期循环中,东部型厄尔尼诺会引起单圈沃克环流异常,同时激发EU(欧亚)遥相关波列,进而影响澜沧江流量变化。     

崩塌滑坡地质灾害风险排序方法研究

我国地质灾害具有点多面广的分布特点,而地质灾害风险管控人力和能力有限,因此需要开展地质灾害风险排序工作,筛选出优先管控的地质灾害隐患点,确保地质灾害风险管控对策实施的针对性和高效性。地质灾害风险排序的实质是运用定量化风险评价计算出每处隐患点的风险值,然后根据风险值开展排序工作。目前定量化风险评价模型多用于单个地质灾害点风险评价,并未应用于大范围地质灾害风险排序工作,且模型较为复杂,推广应用较难。在分析崩塌、滑坡地质灾害与其环境因素间的响应关系及规律的基础上,提取崩塌、滑坡地质灾害的主控环境因子与诱发因子,联合人口、物质、资源等易损性因子建立地质灾害风险评价指标体系;基于岩石工程系统相互作用矩阵与专家打分法确定各级地质灾害风险评价指标因子权重,构建地质灾害风险评分体系;并根据风险评价定义,提出了能够快速定量化的简易地质灾害风险计算模型。以贵州省98处地质灾害隐患点为例,开展模型应用验证,风险排序结果与灾害管理机构主观认识的实际风险一致,验证了本模型的合理性与有效性,提高了地质灾害风险管控能力与效率。     

An Analysis of the Recent Severe Storm Surge Disaster Events in China

The economic loss caused by the storm surgedisasters is much higher than that caused by anyother marine disaster in China, the loss from the severestorm surge disaster being the highest. Statistics showthat there were 62 typhoon landings over the east-southeastcoast of China since 1990, three of which,occurring in 1992, 1994 and 1997, respectively, caused themost severe damage. The direct economic lossesdue to these events are 9.3, 17.0 and 30 billion yuan(RMB, or about 1.7, 2.6 and 3.8 billion USD,respectively), which is much greater than the loss of 5.5billion yuan (RMB) on an average every year duringthe 1989–1991 period. This paper makes a comparativeanalysis of the damage caused by the three events andpresents an overview of progress of precautions againststorm surge disaster in China. The suggestedcounter measures to mitigate the loss from the severe stormsurge disasters in China is as follows: (1) Raisethe whole society awareness of precaution against severestorm surge disaster; (2) Work out a new plan forbuilding sea walls; (3) Improve and perfect the availablewarning and disaster relief command system; (4)Develop the insurance service in order to promptly mitigatethe loss caused by severe storm surge disaster event.     

ENSO and IOD analysis on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan

Different techniques have been used to discuss the existence of significant relation between the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Various studies present their interaction and influence on the natural disasters (i.e. drought, flood, etc.) over large parts of the globe. This study uses a Markov chain method to investigate the relation between the ENSO and IOD for the period of 62 years (1950–2011) and aggregates their influence on the occurrence of floods in Pakistan. Both data sets show similarities in the formation of transition matrices and expected number of visits from one state to another. The strong values of 2-dimensional correlation and high self-communication of the transition states confirm the existence of a possible relation between ENSO and IOD data. Moreover, significant values of dependency and stationary test endorse the applicability of the Markov chain analyses. The independent analysis shows that strong events of both data sets are co-occurred in the same flood years. During the study period maximum number of floods was observed during summer monsoon season. However, further analysis shows that after 1970, Pakistan observed the highest percentage of floods occurred per year during El Nino, Non-ENSO and positive IOD years. These observations and results demonstrate that climate variability especially ENSO and IOD should be incorporated into disaster risk analyses and policies in Pakistan.     

基于自然灾害风险评价框架的省级地质灾害风险区划方法探讨——以吉林省为例

地质灾害风险区划是地质灾害风险管理与防治的有效手段之一,对于科学防治地质灾害具有重要意义。基于自然灾害风险理论,从致灾因子危险性,承灾体暴露性和脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力（恢复力）等入手,选取评价指标,构建省级地质灾害风险评价模型,对全省地质灾害进行风险区划。该模型在吉林省地质灾害风险区划中应用表明,评价结果合理,与野外调查情况吻合,可以为规划和地质灾害防治等工作提供依据。     

区域自然灾害风险分析研究进展

讨论了区域自然灾害风险的含义,指出了保险与灾害研究中对风险含义的不同理解,着重说明可能性风险概念,综述了区域灾害风险分析的内容及区域灾害风险估算的数学模型,指出风险分析可归结为风险辨识,风险估算,风险评价三个环节,风险估算数学模型的演进可概括为极值风险模型,概率风险模型,可能性风险模型三个阶段,着重介绍区域自然灾害风险分析的可能性风险模型。