Comparison of landslide susceptibility based on a decision-tree model and actual landslide occurrence: The Akaishi Mountains, Japan

This paper proposes a statistical decision-tree model to analyze landslide susceptibility in a wide area of the Akaishi Mountains, Japan. The objectives of this study were to validate the decision-tree model by comparing landslide susceptibility and actual landslide occurrence, and to reveal the relationships among landslide occurrence, topography, and geology. Landslide susceptibility was examined through ensemble learning with a decision tree. Decision trees are advantageous in that estimation processes and order of important explanatory variables are explicitly represented by the tree structures. Topographic characteristics (elevation, slope angle, profile curvature, plan curvature, and dissection and undissection height) and geological data were used as the explanatory variables. These topographic characteristics were calculated from digital elevation models (DEMs). The objective variables were landslide occurrence and reactivation data between 1992 and 2002 that were depicted by satellite image analysis. Landslide susceptibility was validated by comparing actual data on landslides that occurred and reactivated after the model was constructed (between 2002 and 2004).This study revealed that, from 2002 to 2004, landslides tended to occur and reactivate in catchments with high landslide susceptibility. The landslide susceptibility map thus depicts the actual landslide occurrence and reactivation in the Akaishi Mountains. This result indicates that the decision-tree model has appropriate accuracy for estimating the probabilities of future landslides. The tree structure indicates that landslides occurred and reactivated frequently in the catchments that had an average slope angle exceeding ca. 29° and a mode of slope angle exceeding 33°, which agree well with previous studies. A decision tree also quantitatively expresses important explanatory variables at the higher order of the tree structure.     

Landsliding and sediment flux in the Central Swiss Alps: A photogrammetric study of the Schimbrig landslide, Entlebuch

This study explores the effects of hillslope mass failure on the sediment flux in the Waldemme drainage basin, Central Swiss Alps, over decadal time scales. This area is characterized by abundant landslides affecting principally flysch units and is therefore an important sediment source. The analysis concentrates on the Schimbrig landslide that potentially contributes up to 15% to the sediment budget of the Waldemme drainage basin. Volumetric changes are quantified using high-resolution elevation models that were extracted using digital photogrammetric techniques. Sediment discharge data were used to constrain the significance of the landslide for sediment flux in the channel network. The temporal extent of the photogrammetric analysis ranges from 1962 to 1998, including an earth slide event in 1994. The analyses reveal that during periods of low slip rates of the landslide, nearly all of the displaced sediments were eroded and supplied to the channel network. In contrast, during active periods, only a fraction of the displaced landslide mass was exported to the trunk stream. Interestingly, the 1994 earth slide event did not disturb the long-term sediment discharge pattern of the channel network, nor did it influence the sediment flux at a weekly scale. However, suspended sediment pulses correlate with higher-than-average precipitation events. This was especially the case in August 2005 when a storm event (> 100 years return period) triggered several debris flows and earth flows in the whole drainage basin and in the Schimbrig area. This storm did not result in a significant increase in the slip rates of the entire landslide's main body. It is therefore proposed that debris flows and earth flows perform the connectivity between hillslope processes (e.g. landsliding) and the trunk stream during and between phases of landslide activity in this particular setting.     

Mean slope-angle frequency distribution and size frequency distribution of landslide masses in Higashikubiki area, Japan

Landslide mass size frequency distributions and mean slope-angle frequency distributions were calculated for slump, slide, and creep type landslides in the Higashikubiki area. Mean slope-angle frequency distributions closely approximated Weibull distributions. Size frequency distributions show power-law dependencies. Both can be explained by modeling landslides as linked uniform blocks in tensile force. Power coefficients for size frequency distributions were 2.01–2.32 (approximation to power functions) or 2.10–2.24 (approximation to Pareto distributions).     

High‐precision Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating of flood berms,Vetlestølsdalen,alpine southern Norway: first application and some methodological issues

Schmidt‐hammer exposure‐age dating (SHD) was applied to three flood berms in upper Vetlestølsdalen, southern Norway, using a local, high‐precision calibration curve that takes account of the colluvial origin of fluvial boulders in the youngest berm, which was deposited during the August 1979 flood. Precision of SHD dating for this berm was estimated as ±210 years, whereas predicted ages of the two older berms were 3195 ± 435 and 3405 ± 340 years, and subsections of the oldest berm yielded age ranges of ～900 years. The results demonstrate the feasibility of high‐precision SHD in the context of boulder landforms deposited by high‐magnitude floods, the requirement of a large sample of R values in the face of high natural variability, the necessity of an appropriate calibration curve to ensure accuracy, the usefulness of floods of known age for testing and improving calibration curves, and the potential effects of boulders of colluvial origin on R values (especially the susceptibility of young surfaces to roughness variations). The dated berms indicate a return period of ～1000–1500 years for floods of the magnitude of the 1979 flood event in the upper catchment. Thus, the long‐term persistence of flood boulder berms in the landscape has potential for reconstructing Holocene flood history and palaeohydrology from the geomorphic legacy of the most extreme Holocene floods.