南印度洋海温偶极子型振荡及其气候影响

印度洋海表温度（Sea Surface Temperature，简称SST）的方差分析和相关分析表明南印度洋也存在一个海温偶极子型振荡，并定义了一个南印度洋海表温度异常偶极子指数.夏、秋季（南半球冬、春）的南印度洋偶极子指数与后期热带500hPa和100hPa高度场异常有显著而持续的相关，在冬、春达到最大，并可以持续到次年夏、秋.前期夏、秋季节的南印度洋偶极模对次年我国大陆东部夏季降水异常有显著的影响，对应偶极子正位相，次年夏季印度洋、南海（东亚）夏季风偏弱；副高加强且南撤、西伸，南亚高压偏强且位置偏东，易形成我国长江流域降水偏多，华南降水偏少；负位相年反之.后期冬季西太平洋暖池是联系南印度洋偶极子与次年我国夏季降水异常关系的一条重要途径.南印度洋偶极子表现出了明显的独立于ENSO（El Nio Southern Oscillation，简称ENSO）的特征.     

中国东部夏季降水准两年振荡空间分布及背景场特征

本文采用经验正交函数展开(EOF)及相关分析等方法,使用中国气象局整编的160站1951~2005年月平均降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料研究了中国东部夏季降水准两年周期振荡的空间模态及其大气环流背景场.结果表明:(1)中国地区降水季节性差异明显,夏季是主要的降水期并具有明显的准两年周期振荡(TBO)特征,中国东部地区是降水TBO方差变化最大的区域.(2)中国东部夏季降水TBO存在两个主要的空间模态,第1模态以27°N为界南北成反位相的变化关系,降水振幅较大;第2模态降水振幅相对较小,大值中心位于河套-华北地区.(3)形成中国东部夏季降水TBO的两个主要空间模态环流背景场明显不同.第1模态与西太平洋海温成正相关,与东太平洋海温成负相关.第2模态则主要与日本海附近的海温成正相关.当夏季降水TBO以江淮偏多时(第1模态),西太平洋海温偏高,东太平洋海温偏低,中国东部及沿海上空850 hPa有异常反气旋,500 hPa高度相关场东亚上空呈"正负正"波列特征,200 hPa南亚高压加强,西风急流位置偏南.当夏季降水TBO降水位置偏北时(第2模态),中国东部及沿海上空有异常气旋,200 hPa南亚高压偏弱,西风急流位置偏北.     

Regional sea-surface temperatures explain spatial and temporal variation of summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River

ABSTRACT

The summer precipitation (June–September) in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, playing an important role in water availability. This study divided the source region of the Yellow River into homogeneous zones based on precipitation variability using cluster analysis. Summer precipitation trends and teleconnections with global sea-surface temperatures (SST) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) from 1961 to 2010 were investigated by Mann-Kendall test and Pearson product-moment correlation analysis. The results show that the northwest part (Zone 1) had a non-significantly increasing trend, and the middle and southeast parts (zones 2 and 3) that receive the most precipitation displayed a statistically significant decreasing trend for summer precipitation. The summer precipitation in the whole region showed statistically significant negative correlations with the central Pacific SST for 0–4 month lag and with the Southern Indian and Atlantic oceans SST for 5–8 month lag. Analyses of sub-regions reveal intricate and complex correlations with different SST areas that further explain the summer precipitation variability. The SOI had significant positive correlations, mainly for 0–2 months lag, with summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River. It is seen that El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have an influence on summer precipitation, and the predominant negative correlations indicate that higher SST in equatorial Pacific areas corresponding to El Niño coincides with less summer precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Identification of best predictors for forecasting seasonal rainfall and runoff in Australia

The first step towards developing a reliable seasonal runoff forecast is identifying the key predictors that drive rainfall and runoff. This paper investigates the lag relationships between rainfall across Australia and runoff across southeast Australia versus 12 atmospheric‐oceanic predictors, and how the relationships change over time. The analysis of rainfall data indicates that the relationship is greatest in spring and summer in northeast Australia and in spring in southeast Australia. The best predictors for spring rainfall in eastern Australia are NINO4 [sea surface temperature (SST) in western Pacific] and thermocline (20 °C isotherm of the Pacific) and those for summer rainfall in northeast Australia are NINO4 and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin). The relationship in northern Australia is greatest in spring and autumn with NINO4 being the best predictor. In western Australia, the relationship is significant in summer, where SST2 (SST over the Indian Ocean) and II (SST over the Indonesian region) is the best predictor in the southwest and northwest, respectively. The analysis of runoff across southeast Australia indicates that the runoff predictability in the southern parts is greatest in winter and spring, with antecedent runoff being the best predictor. The relationship between spring runoff and NINO4, thermocline and SOI is also relatively high and can be used together with antecedent runoff to forecast spring runoff. In the northern parts of southeast Australia, the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are better predictors of runoff than antecedent runoff, and have significant correlation with winter, spring and summer runoff. For longer lead times, the runoff serial correlation is reduced, especially over the northern parts, and the atmospheric‐oceanic variables are likely to be better predictors for forecasting runoff. The correlations between runoff versus the predictors vary with time, and this has implications for the development of forecast relationship that assumes stationarity in the historical data. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Moisture budget variations in the Yangtze River Basin, China, and possible associations with large-scale circulation

We analyzed seasonal and annual variations of the whole layer atmospheric moisture budget and precipitation during 1961–2005 and their associations with large-scale circulation in the Yangtze River basin, China. The results indicated increasing moisture budget in summer and winter, but decreasing moisture budget in spring and autumn. Positive correlations between moisture budget and precipitation illustrate tremendous impacts the moisture budget has on the precipitation changes across the Yangtze River basin. In terms of seasonal variations, significant correlations were observed between precipitation and moisture budget in spring and autumn in the upper Yangtze River basin. Besides, we also analyzed changes of geopotential height. The positive trends of the geopotential height (850 hPa) were observed in the East Asia and the negative trends in the middle and west Pacific Ocean, indicating increasing geopotential height from south to north in east Asia which largely limited the moisture propagation to north China. While decreasing meridional geopotential height from west to east along the Yangtze River basin caused more moisture propagation from the west to the east parts of the study region, which may benefit more precipitation in the middle and lower Yangtze River basin.     

前期西太平洋暖池热含量异常影响长江中下游夏季降水的可能途经

利用日本气象厅历史海温资料、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、海表温度和降水资料,研究了1951-2010年前期西太平洋暖池（简称暖池）热含量异常与长江中下游夏季降水的关系,及其可能影响途径.结果表明,前期暖池热含量与长江中下游夏季降水存在超前2个季节的显著负相关关系,前期11-1月（即上年11月-当年1月,下同）暖池关键区（166.5°E-173.5°W,7.5°S-3.5°N）0~200 m热含量的偏低（高）对长江中下游夏季降水偏多（少）的预测有重要指示意义.前期暖池热含量异常的持续存在,及其外强迫作用激发的具有一定斜压性结构的夏季东亚-太平洋型遥相关（EAP）,可能是影响长江中下游夏季降水的主要原因.暖池热含量在前期11-1月异常偏低导致其西北侧菲律宾异常反气旋形成并维持,夏季菲律宾异常反气旋向西北方向扩展加强,东亚沿岸EAP波列形成,使得长江中下游及其以东的西北太平洋副热带地区受异常气旋控制,且长江中下游地区为北方冷空气与南方暖湿气流的交汇区.同时,对流层高层东亚沿岸亦存在位置较中低层向西北偏移的EAP波列,长江中下游及其以南地区为异常偏强高压,高层辐散与中低层辐合相配合,有利于长江中下游地区对流发展和降水增多;反之亦然.     

Role of Ocean in the Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Asian summer monsoon sets in over India after the Intertropical Convergence Zone moves across the equator to the northern hemisphere over the Indian Ocean. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on either side of the equator in Indian and Pacific oceans are found related to the date of monsoon onset over Kerala (India). Droughts in the June to September monsoon rainfall of India are followed by warm SST anomalies over tropical Indian Ocean and cold SST anomalies over west Pacific Ocean. These anomalies persist till the following monsoon which gives normal or excess rainfall (tropospheric biennial oscillation). Thus, we do not get in India many successive drought years as in sub-Saharan Africa, thanks to the ocean. Monsoon rainfall of India has a decadal variability in the form of 30-year epochs of frequent (infrequent) drought monsoons occurring alternately. Decadal oscillations of monsoon rainfall and the well-known decadal oscillation in SST of the Atlantic Ocean (also of the Pacific Ocean) are found to run parallel with about the same period close to 60 years and the same phase. In the active–break cycle of the Asian summer monsoon, the ocean and the atmosphere are found to interact on the time scale of 30–60 days. Net heat flux at the ocean surface, monsoon low-level jetstream (LLJ) and the seasonally persisting shallow mixed layer of the ocean north of the LLJ axis play important roles in this interaction. In an El Niño year, the LLJ extends eastwards up to the date line creating an area of shallow ocean mixed layer there, which is hypothesised to lengthen the active–break (AB) cycle typically from 1 month in a La Niña to 2 months in an El Niño year. Indian monsoon droughts are known to be associated with El Niños, and long break monsoon spells are found to be a major cause of monsoon droughts. In the global warming scenario, the observed rapid warming of the equatorial Indian ocean SST has caused the weakening of both the monsoon Hadley circulation and the monsoon LLJ which has been related to the observed rapid decreasing trend in the seasonal number of monsoon depressions.     

亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年际年代际变化与中国旱涝的关系

利用1958～2002年的NCEP-R1和ERA-40逐日再分析资料以及中国160站点月平均降水资料探讨了亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年际年代际变化及其与中国降水异常的关系. 分析结果表明,亚洲夏季风水汽输送和中国夏季降水的异常主模态呈现显著的准两年变化周期. 当南亚夏季风纬向水汽输送偏强（弱）时,东亚—西北太平洋地区水汽输送的偶极型异常有利于长江中下游地区和江淮流域的水汽辐合负（正）异常与华南和华北地区的水汽辐合正（负）异常,从而引起中国东部的经向三极子雨型,即长江中下游地区和江淮流域的偏旱（涝）与华南和华北地区的偏涝（旱）. 1970s年代末之后,亚洲夏季风水汽输送的年代际减弱与西北太平洋地区水汽输送的偶极型异常相配合,导致长江中下游地区的持续偏涝与华南和华北地区的持续偏旱. 从中国夏季降水异常与水汽通量辐合异常的同相对应关系来看,ERA-40资料对亚洲夏季风水汽输送年际年代际变化的描述能力强于NCEP-R1资料.     

Experimental study of water fluxes in a residential area: 1. Rainfall,roof runoff and evaporation: the effect of slope and aspect

An experimental study of water fluxes from roofs in a residential area has quantified water fluxes from different types of roof and identified the major controls on the process. Roofs with pitches of 0°, 22° and 50° and orientations of 15° (from true north) (NNE) and 103° (ESE) were selected. A novel automatic system for monitoring has been developed. Noticeable differences in rainfall, runoff and evaporation were found for different roof slopes, aspects and heights. Depending on height, flat roofs collected 90 to 99% of rainfall recorded at ground level. Roofs with a 22° slope; facing south‐south‐west (i.e. facing the prevailing wind) captured most rain, whereas east‐south‐east facing roofs with slopes of 50° received the least. Depending on the roof slope, the average rainfall captured ranged from 62 to 93% of that at ground level. For the same slope, the results indicated that from roofs orientated normal to the prevailing wind; (i) captured rainfall was higher, (ii) evaporation was higher and (iii) runoff was less than that from roofs having other aspects. Monthly variations in the runoff–rainfall ratio followed the rainfall distribution, being lowest in summer and highest in winter. The highest mean ratio (0·91) was associated with the steeper roof slope; the lowest ratio (0·61) was for roofs facing the prevailing wind direction. For the same amount of rainfall, the runoff generated from a steeper roof was significantly higher than that generated by a moderate roof slope, but the lowest runoff was from roofs facing the prevailing wind. The results have also shown that the amount of runoff collected (under UK climatic condition) was sufficient to supply an average household in the studied area with the major part of its annual water requirements. The use of this water not only represents a financial gain for house owners but also will help protect the environment by reducing demand on water resources through the reduction of groundwater abstraction, construction of new reservoirs, and a reduction of the flood risk as its in situ use is considered a preventive measure known as a source control. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological responses to conservation practices in a catchment of the Loess Plateau,China

Since the late 1950s a series of soil conservation practices have been implemented in the Loess Plateau. It is important to assess the impact of these practices on hydrology at the catchment scale. The Jialuhe River catchment, a tributary of the Yellow River, with a drainage area of 1117 km² in the Loess Plateau, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to conservation practices. Parametric and non‐parametric Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to detect trends in hydrological variables or their residuals. Relationships between precipitation and hydrological variables were developed to remove the impact of precipitation variability. Significant linear decreasing trends in annual surface runoff and baseflow were identified during the treated period from 1967 to 1989, and the rate of reduction was 1·30 and 0·48 mm/year, respectively. As result, mean annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 32% over the period of 1967 to 1989. Seasonal runoff also decreased during the treated period with the greatest reduction occurring in summer and the smallest reduction in winter. The response of high and low daily flow to conservation practices was greater than average flows. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sedimentary records of environmental evolution in the Sanmen Lake Basin and the Yellow River running through the Sanmenxia Gorge eastward into the sea

A series of independent faulted basins developed in the present middle reaches of the Yellow River during late Cenozoic, among which the Sanmen Lake Basin is located in the east edge of the Loess Plateau, a transitional zone between the second and third macromorphological step of China. The thick strata of the Sanmen Group deposited in the large basin. The Sanmen Group is a perfect place for the study on paleoenvironmental change, tectono-climatic cycles as well as the formation and evolution of the Yellow River. In this paper, the paleoenvironmental changes, regional tectonic movement and the evolutionary process of the Sanmen Lake Basin during the past 5 Ma were reconstructed based on the analysis of paleomagnetic stratigraphy, pollen, TOC and carbonate content from the Huangdigou outcrop near the Sanmenxia Reservoir, Pinglu County, Shanxi Province. The sedimentary records from the outcrop indicate that the basin was first formated by fault activity at about 5.4 MaBP, and after the strong tectonic movement at 3.6 MaBP the lake enlarged and the rainfall of summer monsoon increased. There was no great climatic transition near 2.6 MaBP, corresponding to the bottom age of loess in the Loess Plateau. After Olduvai event (about 1.77 MaBP) the Picea and Abies were presented in the sediments, which indicates a colder climate. The tectonic movement at 1.2 MaBP caused the light angular discordance between the upper and lower Sanmen Group. The sedimentary records show a cold and wet climate during the prosperous periods of loess accumulation such as L15, L9, L6. The tectonic intensification periods of the Sanmen Basin correspond with the tectonic movements in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau chronologically. The earliest age of the outflow from the Paleo-Sanmen Lake or the partly cutting off of the Sanmenxia Gorge was about 0.41- 0.35 MaBP. The age of cutting thoroughly the Sanmenxia Gorge by the Yellow River and the disappearance of the Paleo-Sanmen Lake was about 0.15 MaBP, which symbolized the formation of the present Yellow River and had an important influence on the environmental and morphological evolution in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River.     

The Preferred Structure of the Interannual Indian Monsoon Variability

The leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of the June-Sept. mean, rotational horizontal wind at 850 hPa and 200 hPa (over the region 12.5°S–42.5°N, 50°E–100°E) from 56 years (1948–2003) of reanalysis (from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) shows strong anti-cyclonic circulation at upper levels, strong Indian Ocean cross-equatorial flow and on-shore flow over western India at lower levels . The associated principal component (PC) is correlated at the 0.75 level with the seasonal mean observed Indian Monsoon rainfall (IMR). Composite differences of vertically integrated divergence (surface to 800 hPa) and vorticity (surface to 500 hPa) between ``strong' years (PC-1 exceeds one standard deviation σ) and ``weak' years (PC-1 less than − σ) suggest increased rising motion and storminess over the Bay of Bengal and central India. Composite difference maps of station rainfall from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) between strong years and normal years (weak years and normal years) are statistically significant over central India, with strong (weak) years associated with increased (decreased) precipitation. In both cases the maps of rainfall anomalies are of one sign throughout India. The correlation of PC-1 with global seasonal mean SST is strong and negative over the eastern equatorial Pacific, but positive in a surrounding horse-shoe like region. Significant negative correlation occurs in the northwestern Indian Ocean. The lag/lead correlation between the NINO3 SST index and PC-1 is similar to but stronger than the NINO3/IMR correlation. Modest (but significant) negative correlation is seen when NINO3 leads PC-1 (or IMR) by one-two months. Strong negative correlation is seen when PC-1 (or IMR) leads NINO3. The projections of running five-day means of horizontal rotational winds at 850 and 200 hPa onto EOF-1 (after removing the seasonal mean for each year) were pooled for strong, normal and weak years. The strong and normal year probability distribution functions (pdfs) are nearly indistinguishable, but the weak year pdf has more weight for moderate negative values and in both extreme tails and shows some hint of bi-modality.     

大气季节内振荡的活动与江淮流域夏季旱涝

观测资料的分析极为清楚地表明,江淮流域的夏季降水有着极为明显的低频变化,周期为30-60d和近20d的振荡是其最基本的特征,尤其是在多雨的年份.对应江淮夏季多雨(涝)年和少雨(旱)年,大气环流的分析表明其大气季节内振荡(IS0)的形势有着显著的差异.例如在多雨(少雨)年,在长江以南的850hPa上为一个低频(IS0)反气旋(气旋)性环流控制,而中国北部和日本一带为气旋(反气旋)性环流,从而在江淮流域形成较强的低频辐合(辐散)气流;在200hPa的青藏高原上却为一个低频气旋(反气旋)性环流所控制.分析还表明,对应多雨年,在江淮流域有明显的由中高讳度向南传播和由低玮度向北传播的大气低频振荡的汇合情况;而对应于少雨年,由中高纬度向南传播的低频系统较不明显,在江淮流域低频系统的汇合也较为不清楚.     

Hydroclimatic teleconnection between global sea surface temperature and rainfall over India at subdivisional monthly scale

It is well established that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a significant role in the hydrologic cycle in which precipitation is the most important part. In this study, the influence of SST on Indian subdivisional monthly rainfall is investigated. Both spatial and temporal influences are investigated. The most influencing regions of sea surface are identified for different subdivisions and for different overlapping seasons in the year. The relative importance of SST, land surface temperature (LST) and ocean–land temperature contrast (OLTC) and their variation from subdivision to subdivision and from season to season are also studied. It is observed that LST does not show much similarity with rainfall series, but, in general, OLTC shows relatively higher influence in the pre‐monsoon and early monsoon periods, whereas SST plays a more important role in late‐ and post‐monsoon periods. The influence of OLTC is seen to be mostly confined to the Indian Ocean region, whereas the effect of SST indicates the climatic teleconnection between Indian regional rainfall and climate indices in Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes and variation in the discharge regime of the Upper Suriname River Basin and its relationship with the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies

Long‐term changes and variability in river flows in the tropical Upper Suriname River Basin in Suriname (2–6°N, 54–58°W) are analysed, including the relation to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. To analyse variability, lag correlation and statistical properties of the data series are used. Long‐term changes are analysed using parametric and non‐parametric statistical techniques. The analyses are performed for the period 1952–1985. The results show that both river discharge series at Semoisie and Pokigron are non‐stationary and have a negative trend. The negative rainfall trend in the centre of Suriname may be responsible for the negative trend in the annual river discharges in the basin. The highest correlation (Pearson's coefficient c) is obtained when the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs lags the monthly discharges at Pokigron by 3–4 months (c = 0·7) and when the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) SSTs lags the discharges by 4 months (c = ? 0·7). It also follows that the high (low) monthly flows, from April–August (September–March) are associated with increasing (decreasing) SSTs in the TNA and with decreasing (increasing) SSTs in the TSA. The results also reveal that years with low (high) discharges are more related to warmer (colder) SSTs during the year in the TNA region and a southward displacement of the Inter‐Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). However, the Pacific El Niño (La Niña) events may also be responsible for low (high) flow years in this basin. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: detecting drivers of change

The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of soil moisture data and curve number method for estimating runoff in the Loess Plateau of China

The Soil Conservation Service curve number (CN) method commonly uses three discrete levels of soil antecedent moisture condition (AMC), defined by the 5‐day antecedent rainfall depth, to describe soil moisture prior to a runoff event. However, this way may not adequately represent soil water conditions of fields and watersheds in the Loess Plateau of China. The objectives of this study were: (1) to determine the effective soil moisture depth to which the CN is most related; (2) to evaluate a discrete and a linear relationship between AMC and soil moisture; and (3) to develop an equation between CN and soil moisture to predict runoff better for the climatic and soil conditions of the Loess Plateau of China. The dataset consisted of 10 years of rainfall, runoff and soil moisture measurements from four experimental plots cropped with millet, pasture and potatoes. Results indicate that the standard CN method underestimated runoff depths for 85 of the 98 observed plot‐runoff events, with a model efficiency E of only 0·243. For our experimental conditions, the discrete and linear approaches improved runoff estimation, but still underestimated most runoff events, with E values of 0·428 and 0·445 respectively. Based on the measured CN values and soil moisture values in the top 15 cm of the soil, a non‐linear equation was developed that predicted runoff better with an E value of 0·779. This modified CN equation was the most appropriate for runoff prediction in the study area, but may need adjustments for local conditions in the Loess Plateau of China. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

青藏高原春季积雪在南海夏季风爆发过程中的作用

本文应用欧洲中期预报中心（ECMWF,European Centre for Medium\|Range Weather Forecasts—ERA\|40）资料和美国国家环境预测中心和国家大气研究中心(NCEP/NCAR, National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research)资料,研究了青藏高原雪深变化对南海夏季风爆发的影响和ENSO对青藏高原降雪的影响.结果表明：（1）ECMWF的雪深资料是可信的,可以用来研究青藏高原雪深变化对南海夏季风爆发的影响;（2）青藏高原的积雪异常影响到500 hPa以上的温度异常和印度洋与大陆间的气温对比,一方面使上层的南亚高压移动速度发生变化,另一方面也影响到低层大气的运动和东西向风异常,在青藏高原少雪年,东印度洋产生西风异常和一个气旋对,而在青藏高原多雪年,东印度洋产生东风异常和一个反气旋对;（3）ENSO与青藏高原春季积雪关系密切.东太平洋SST正异常时,东印度洋和南海气压偏高,从而导致该区海陆经向压强梯度增强和西风异常.另外,此时青藏高原北部气压偏高,北风偏强,副热带锋面增强,同时,印度洋的SST偏高,为青藏高原降雪提供了水汽保障,这些都有利于青藏高原的降雪.     

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct–Nov–Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982–2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.     

Regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the sea level in the China Sea

Based on coastal tide level, satellite altimetry, and sea surface temperature (SST) data of offshore areas of China’s coast and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the regional characteristics of the effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the sea level in the China Sea were investigated. Singular value decomposition results show a significant teleconnection between the sea level in the China Sea and the SST of the tropical Pacific Ocean; the correlation coefficient decreases from south to north. Data from tide gauges along China’s coast show that the seasonal sea-level variations are significantly correlated with the ENSO. In addition, China’s coast was divided into three regions based on distinctive regional characteristics. Results obtained show that the annual amplitude of sea level was low during El Niño developing years, and especially so during the El Niño year. The ENSO intensity determined the response intensity of the annual amplitude of the sea level. The response region (amplitude) was relatively large for strong ENSO intensities. Significant oscillation periods at a timescale of 4–7 years existed in the sea level of the three regions. The largest amplitude of oscillation was 1.5 cm, which was the fluctuation with the 7-year period in the South China Sea. The largest amplitude of oscillation in the East China Sea was about 1.3 cm. The amplitude of oscillation with the 6-year period in the Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea was the smallest (less than 1 cm).