Record selection for aftershock incremental dynamic analysis

The back‐to‐back application of mainshock records as aftershock is often considered in conducting aftershock incremental dynamic analysis. In such an approach, the characteristics of mainshock records are considered to be similar to those of major aftershock records within the same mainshock–aftershock sequences. The underlying assumption is that the characteristics of selected mainshocks, other than those used for record selection, are not significant in the assessment of structural responses. A case study is set up to investigate the effects of aftershock record selection on the collapse vulnerability assessment. The numerical results for a specific wood‐frame structure indicate that the aftershock fragility can be affected by the aftershock record characteristics, particularly response spectral shape. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Storm‐coverage effect on dynamic flood‐frequency analysis: empirical data analysis

In this study, a dynamic flood‐frequency analysis model considering the storm coverage effect is proposed and applied to six sub‐basins in the Pyungchang River basin, Korea. The model proposed is composed of the rectangular pulse Poisson process model for rainfall, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method for infiltration and the geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph for runoff estimation. Also, the model developed by Marco and Valdes is adopted for quantifying the storm‐coverage characteristics. By comparing the results from the same model with and without the storm‐coverage effect consideration, we could quantify the storm‐coverage effect on the flood‐frequency analysis. As a result of that, we found the storm‐coverage effect was so significant that overestimation of the design flood was unavoidable without its consideration. This also becomes more serious for larger basins where the probability of complete storm coverage is quite low. However, for smaller basins, the limited number of rain gauges is found to hamper the proper quantification of the storm‐coverage characteristics. Provided with a relationship curve between the basin size and the storm coverage (as in this study), this problem could be overcome with an acceptable accuracy level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐repair effect of column jackets on aftershock fragilities of damaged RC bridges subjected to successive earthquakes

In light of recent earthquakes, structures damaged during an initial seismic event (mainshock) may be more vulnerable to severe damage and collapse during a subsequent event (aftershock). In this paper, a framework for the development of aftershock fragilities is presented; these aftershock fragilities define the likelihood that a bridge damaged during an initial event will exhibit a given damage state following one or more subsequent events. The framework is capable of (i) quantifying the cumulative damage of unrepaired bridges subjected to mainshock–aftershock sequences (effect of multiple earthquakes) and (ii) evaluating the effectiveness of column repair schemes such as steel and fiber‐reinforced‐polymer jackets (post‐repair effect of jackets). To achieve this aim, the numerical model of repaired columns is validated using existing experimental results. A non‐seismically designed bridge is chosen as a case study and is modeled for three numerical bridge models: a damaged (but unrepaired) bridge model, and two bridge models with columns repaired with steel and fiber‐reinforced polymer jackets. A series of back‐to‐back dynamic analyses under successive earthquakes are performed for each level of existing damage. Using simulated results, failure probabilities of components for multiple limit states are computed for each bridge model and then are used to evaluate the relative vulnerability of components associated with cumulative damage and column repair. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reservoir operation using grey fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming

This paper presents an optimal regulation programme, grey fuzzy stochastic dynamic programming (GFSDP), for reservoir operation. It is composed of a grey system, fuzzy theory and dynamic programming. The grey system represents data by covering the whole range without loss of generality, and the fuzzy arithmetic takes charge of the rules of reservoir operation. The GFSDP deals with the multipurpose decision‐making problem by fuzzy optimization theorem. The practicability and effectiveness of the proposed approach is tested on the operation of the Shiman reservoir in Taiwan. The current M5 operating rule curves of this reservoir also are evaluated. The simulation results demonstrate that this new approach, in comparison with the M5 rule curves, has superior performance with regard to the total water deficit and number of monthly deficits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Non‐iterative time integration scheme for non‐linear dynamic FEM analysis

This paper proposes a non‐iterative time integration (NITI) scheme for non‐linear dynamic FEM analysis. The NITI scheme is constructed by combining explicit and implicit schemes, taking advantage of their merits, and enables stable computation without an iteration process for convergence even when used for non‐linear dynamic problems. Formulation of the NITI scheme is presented and its stability is studied. Although the NITI scheme is not unconditionally stable when applied to non‐linear problems, it is stable in most cases unless stiffness hardening occurs or the problem has a large velocity‐dependent term. The NITI scheme is applied to dynamic analysis of the non‐linear soil–structure system and computation results are compared with those by the central difference method (CDM). Comparison shows that the stability of the NITI scheme is superior to that of the CDM. Accuracy of the NITI scheme is verified because its results are identical with those by the CDM in which the time step is set as 1/10 of that for the NITI scheme. The application of the NITI scheme to the mesh‐partitioned FEM is also proposed. It is applied to dynamic analysis of the linear soil–structure system. It yields the same results as a conventional single‐domain FEM analysis using the Newmark β method. This result verifies the usability of mesh‐partitioned FEM analysis using the NITI scheme. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley& Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐processing of ensemble forecasts in low‐flow period

For water supply, navigational, ecological protection or water quality control purposes, there is a great need in knowing the likelihood of the river level falling below a certain threshold. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) based on simulations of deterministic hydrologic models is widely used to assess this likelihood. Raw ESP results can be biased in both the ensemble means and the spreads. In this study, we applied a modified general linear model post‐processor (GLMPP) to correct these biases. The modified GLMPP is built on the basis of regression of simulated and observed streamflow calculated on the basis of canonical events, instead of the daily values as is carried out in the original GLMPP. We conducted the probabilistic analysis of post‐processed ESP results falling below pre‐specified low‐flow levels at seasonal time scale. Raw ESP forecasts from the 1980 to 2006 periods by four different land surface models (LSMs) in eight large river basins in the continental USA are included in the analysis. The four LSMs are Noah, Mosaic, variable infiltration capacity and Sacramento models. The major results from this study are as follows: (1) a modified GLMPP was proposed on the basis of canonical events; (2) post‐processing can improve the accuracy and reduce the uncertainty of hydrologic forecasts; (3) post‐processing can help deal with the effect of human activity; and (4) raw simulation results from different models vary greatly in different basins. However, post‐processing can always remove model biases under different conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Approximate incremental dynamic analysis using the modal pushover analysis procedure

Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA)—a procedure developed for accurate estimation of seismic demand and capacity of structures—requires non‐linear response history analysis of the structure for an ensemble of ground motions, each scaled to many intensity levels, selected to cover the entire range of structural response—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability. Recognizing that IDA of practical structures is computationally extremely demanding, an approximate procedure based on the modal pushover analysis procedure is developed. Presented are the IDA curves and limit state capacities for the SAC‐Los Angeles 3‐, 9‐, and 20‐storey buildings computed by the exact and approximate procedures for an ensemble of 20 ground motions. These results demonstrate that the MPA‐based approximate procedure reduces the computational effort by a factor of 30 (for the 9‐storey building), at the same time providing results to a useful degree of accuracy over the entire range of responses—all the way from elastic behaviour to global dynamic instability—provided a proper hysteretic model is selected for modal SDF systems. The accuracy of the approximate procedure does not deteriorate for 9‐ and 20‐storey buildings, although their dynamics is more complex, involving several ‘modes’ of vibration. For all three buildings, the accuracy of the MPA‐based approximate procedure is also satisfactory for estimating the structural capacities for the limit states of immediate occupancy, collapse prevention, and global dynamic instability. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐earthquake functionality of highway overpass bridges

Bridges are crucial to the transportation network in a region struck by an earthquake. Collapse of a bridge determines if a road is passable. Ability of a bridge to carry traffic load after an earthquake determines the weight and speed of vehicles that can cross it. Extent of system and component structural damage in bridges determines the cost and time required for repair. Today, post‐earthquake bridge evaluation is qualitative rather than quantitative. The research presented in this paper aims to provide a quantitative engineering basis for quick and reliable evaluation of the ability of a typical highway overpass bridge to function after an earthquake. The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center's probabilistic performance‐based evaluation approach provides the framework for post‐earthquake bridge evaluation. An analytical study was performed that linked engineering demand parameters to earthquake intensity measures. The PEER structural performance database and reliability analysis tools were then used to link demand parameters to damage measures. Finally, decision variables were developed to describe three limit states, repair cost, traffic function, and collapse, in terms of induced damage. This paper presents the analytical models used to evaluate post‐earthquake bridge function, decision variables and their correlation to the considered limit states, and fragility curves that represent the probability of exceeding a bridge function limit state given an earthquake intensity. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pseudo‐dynamic testing of bridges using non‐linear substructuring

Pseudo‐dynamic tests on a large‐scale model of an existing six‐pier bridge were performed at the ELSA laboratory using the substructuring technique. Two physical pier models were constructed and tested in the laboratory, while the deck, the abutments and the remaining four piers were numerically modeled on‐line. These tests on a large‐scale model of an existing bridge are the first to have been performed considering non‐linear behavior for the modeled substructure. Asynchronous input motion, generated for the specific bridge site, was used for the abutments and the pier bases. Three earthquake tests with increasing intensities were carried out, aimed at the assessment of the seismic vulnerability of a typical European motorway bridge designed prior to the modern generation of seismic codes. The experimental results confirm the poor seismic behavior of the bridge, evidenced by irregular distribution of damage, limited deformation capacity, tension shift effects and undesirable failure locations. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic analysis of structures using modified Lanczos co‐ordinates

An efficient dynamic analysis method using the modified Lanczos co‐ordinates is presented. The proposed method is obtained by applying the modified Lanczos algorithm using Lanczos vectors that satisfy the stiffness‐orthonormality condition to the conventional Lanczos co‐ordinates method. The modified Lanczos co‐ordinates method is more efficient than the conventional method in the case of structures under multi‐input loads. The effectiveness of the modified Lanczos co‐ordinates method is verified by analysing a numerical example. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quasi‐static and pseudo‐dynamic testing of unbonded post‐tensioned rocking bridge piers with external replaceable dissipaters

It has been well documented that following a major earthquake a substantial percentage of economic loss results from downtime of essential lifelines in and out of major urban centres. This has thus led to an improvement of both performance‐based seismic design philosophies and to the development of cost‐effective seismic structural systems capable of guaranteeing a high level of protection, low structural damage and reduced downtime after a design‐level seismic event. An example of such technology is the development of unbonded post‐tensioned techniques in combination with rocking–dissipating connections. In this contribution, further advances in the development of high‐performance seismic‐resistant bridge piers are achieved through the experimental validation of unbonded post‐tensioned bridge piers with external, fully replaceable, mild steel hysteretic dissipaters. The experimental response of three 1 : 3 scale unbonded, post‐tensioned cantilever bridge piers, subjected to quasi‐static and pseudo‐dynamic loading protocols, are presented and compared with an equivalently reinforced monolithic benchmark. Minimal physical damage is observed for the post‐tensioned systems, which exhibit very stable energy dissipation and re‐centring properties. Furthermore, the external dissipaters can be easily replaced if severely damaged under a major (higher than expected) earthquake event. Thus, negligible residual deformations, limited repair costs and downtime can be achieved for critical lifeline components. Satisfactory analytical–experimental comparisons are also presented as a further confirmation of the reliability of the design procedure and of the modelling techniques. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A performance‐based framework for adaptive seismic aftershock risk assessment

Operative seismic aftershock risk forecasting can be particularly useful for rapid decision‐making in the presence of an ongoing sequence. In such a context, limit state first‐excursion probabilities (risk) for the forecasting interval (a day) can represent the potential for progressive state of damage in a structure. This work lays out a performance‐based framework for adaptive aftershock risk assessment in the immediate post‐mainshock environment. A time‐dependent structural performance variable is adopted in order to measure the cumulative damage in a structure. A set of event‐dependent fragility curves as a function of the first‐mode spectral acceleration for a prescribed limit state is calculated by employing back‐to‐back nonlinear dynamic analyses. An epidemic‐type aftershock sequence model is employed for estimating the spatio‐temporal evolution of aftershocks. The event‐dependent fragility curves for a given limit state are then integrated together with the probability distribution of aftershock spectral acceleration based on the epidemic‐type aftershock sequence aftershock hazard. The daily probability of limit state first‐excursion is finally calculated as a weighted combination of the sequence of limit state probabilities conditioned on the number of aftershocks. As a numerical example, daily aftershock risk is calculated for the L'Aquila 2009 aftershock sequence (central Italy). A representative three‐story reinforced concrete frame with infill panels, which has cyclic strength and stiffness degradation, is used in order to evaluate the progressive damage. It is observed that the proposed framework leads to a sound forecasting of limit state first‐excursion in the structure for two limit states of significant damage and near collapse. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improved dynamic correction method in seismic analysis of both classically and non‐classically damped structures

A step‐by‐step approximate procedure taking into consideration high‐frequency modes, usually neglected in the modal analysis of both classically and non‐classically damped structures, is presented. This procedure can be considered as an extension of traditional modal correction methods, like the mode‐acceleration method and the dynamic correction method, which are very effective for structural systems subjected to forcing functions described by analytical laws. The proposed procedure, herein called improved dynamic correction method, requires two steps. In the first step, the number of differential equations of motion are reduced and consequently solved by using the first few undamped mode‐shapes. In the second step, the errors due to modal truncation are reduced by correcting the dynamic response and solving a new set of differential equations, formally similar to the original differential equations of motion. The difference between the two groups of differential equations lies in the forcing vector, which is evaluated in such a way as to correct the effects of modal truncation on applied loads. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stability analysis of MDOF real‐time dynamic hybrid testing systems using the discrete‐time root locus technique

The time delay resulting from the servo hydraulic systems can potentially destabilize the real‐time dynamic hybrid testing (RTDHT) systems. In this paper, the discrete‐time root locus technique is adopted to investigate the delay‐dependent stability performance of MDOF RTDHT systems. Stability analysis of an idealized two‐story shear frame with two DOFs is first performed to illustrate the proposed method. The delay‐dependent stability condition is presented for various structural properties, time delay, and integration time steps. Effects of delay compensation methods on stability are also investigated. Then, the proposed method is applied to analyze the delay‐dependent stability of a single shaking table RTDHT system with an 18‐DOF finite element numerical substructure, and corresponding RTDHTs are carried out to verify the theoretical results. Furthermore, the stability behavior of a finite element RTDHT system with two physical substructures, loaded by twin shaking tables, is theoretically and experimentally investigated. All experimental results convincingly demonstrate that the delay‐dependent stability analysis on the basis of the discrete‐time root locus technique is feasible. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic response analysis using characteristic ground motion records for risk‐based decision‐making (3R method)

The concept of intensity‐based assessment for risk‐based decision‐making is introduced. It is realized by means of the so‐called 3R method (response analysis, record selection and risk‐based decision‐making), which can be used to check the adequacy of design of a new building or of the strengthening of an existing building by performing conventional pushover analysis and dynamic analysis for only a few ground motions, which are termed characteristic ground motions. Because the objective of the method is not a precise assessment of the seismic risk, a simple decision model for risk acceptability can be introduced. The engineer can decide that the reliability of a no‐collapse requirement is sufficient when collapse is observed in the case of less than half of, for example, seven characteristic ground motions. From the theoretical point of view, it is shown that the accuracy of the method is acceptable if the non‐linear response history analyses are performed at a low percentile of limit‐state intensity, which is also proven by means of several examples of multi‐storey reinforced concrete frame buildings. The 3R method represents a compromise between the exclusive use of either pushover analysis or dynamic analysis and can be easily introduced into building codes provided that its applicability is further investigated (e.g. asymmetric structures and other performance objectives) and that the procedure for the selection of characteristic ground motions is automated and readily available to engineers (www.smartengineering.si).     

Bidirectional substructure pseudo‐dynamic tests and analysis of a full‐scale two‐story buckling‐restrained braced frame

A two‐story buckling‐restrained brace (BRB) frame was tested under bidirectional in‐plane and out‐of‐plane loading to evaluate the BRB stability and gusset plate design. The test comprised pseudo‐dynamic loadings using the 1999 Chi‐Chi earthquake scaled to the 50%, 10%, and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years and a cyclic regime of increasing amplitudes of up to 3.0% story drift ratio (SDR). The specimen had a unique configuration where the beams were connected to the columns through shear tabs welded to the column flanges and bolted to the beam webs. Stable hysteretic behavior with only minor cracking at the gusset‐to‐column welds was observed under the pseudo‐dynamic tests, with maximum in‐plane and out‐of‐plane SDRs of 2.24% and 1.47% respectively. Stable behavior continued into the cyclic test where fracture of the gusset‐to‐column welds occurred in the first cycle to simultaneous bidirectional SDR of 3.0%. The observed BRB stability is consistent with a methodology developed for BRB frames under simultaneous in‐plane and out‐of‐plane drifts. The specimen behavior was studied using a finite element model. It was shown that gusset plates are subjected to a combination of BRB force and frame action demands, with the latter increasing the gusset‐to‐beam and gusset‐to‐column interface demands by an average of 69% and 83% respectively. Consistent with the test results, failure at the gusset‐to‐column interfaces is computed when frame action demands are included, thus confirming that not considering frame action demands may results in unconservative gusset plate designs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seismic self‐centering steel beam‐to‐column moment connections using bolted friction devices

This paper first presents the force–deformation relationship of a post‐tensioned (PT) steel beam‐to‐column connection constructed with bolted web friction devices (FDs). This paper then describes the test program conducted in the National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering, Taiwan, on four bolted FDs and four full‐scale PT beam‐to‐column moment connection subassemblies using the FDs. Tests confirm that (1) the hysteretic behavior of four bolted FDs is very stable, (2) the friction coefficient between the steel plate and the brass shim is about 0.34, (3) the proposed force–deformation relationships reasonably predict the experimental responses of the PT connections under cyclically increasing deformations up to a beam peak rotation of 0.05 rad, and (4) the decompression moments do not degrade as beam cyclic deformations increase. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Post‐processing of medium‐range probabilistic hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing,initial conditions and model errors

The impact of errors in the forcing, errors in the model structure and parameters, and errors in the initial conditions is investigated in a simple hydrological ensemble prediction system. The hydrological model is based on an input nonlinearity connected with a linear transfer function and forced by precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The post‐processing of the precipitation and/or the streamflow using information from the reforecasts performed by ECMWF is tested. For this purpose, hydrological reforecasts are obtained by forcing the hydrological model with the precipitation from the reforecast data. In the present case study, it is found that the post‐processing of the hydrological ensembles with a statistical model fitted on the hydrological reforecasts improves the verification scores better than the use of post‐processed precipitation ensembles. In the case of large biases in the precipitation, combining the post‐processing of both precipitation and streamflow allows for further improvements. During the winter, errors in the initial conditions have a larger impact on the scores than errors in the model structure as designed in the experiments. Errors in the parameter values are largely corrected with the post‐processing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pseudo‐dynamic tests of a full‐scale CFT/BRB frame—Part I: Specimen design,experiment and analysis

A series of pseudo‐dynamic tests (PDTs) of a full‐scale 3‐story 3‐bay buckling‐restrained braced frame (BRBF) using concrete‐filled tube columns was tested in the Taiwan National Center for Research on Earthquake Engineering using networked PDT techniques in October 2003. During the tests, real‐time experimental responses and video were webcasted to Internet viewers. The input ground motions adopted for the PDTs were chosen from the 1999 Chi‐Chi and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes and scaled to represent three seismic hazard levels. This paper is in two parts, focusing on the investigations of the overall structure and the local members. This paper constitutes Part I and discusses the design, analytical investigations, and key experimental results of the specimen frame, such as the buckling of the brace‐to‐gusset joints. Part II of the paper, the companion paper, describes the gusset stiffening schemes and detailed experimental behavior of the BRBs and their connections. Experimental peak inter‐story drifts of 0.019 and 0.023 radians, prescribed for the design basis and the maximum credible earthquakes, respectively, are within the target design limits of 0.020 and 0.025 radians. These tests confirmed that the PISA3D and OpenSees nonlinear structural analysis computer programs can simulate the experimental peak shears and floor displacements well. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multi‐hazard upgrade decision making for critical infrastructure based on life‐cycle cost criteria

The life‐cycle cost can be regarded as a benchmark variable in decision making problems involving the retrofit and upgrading of existing structures. A critical infrastructure is often subjected to more than one hazard during its lifetime. Therefore, the problem of evaluating the life‐cycle cost involves uncertainties in both loading and structural modeling parameters. The present study is a preliminary study aiming to calculate the expected life‐cycle cost for a critical infrastructure subjected to more than one hazard in its service lifetime. A methodology is presented that takes into account both the uncertainty in the occurrence of future events due to different types of hazard and also the deterioration of the structure as a result of a series of events. In order to satisfy life safety conditions, the probability of exceeding the limit state of collapse is constrained to be smaller than an allowable threshold. Finally, the methodology is implemented in an illustrative numerical example which considers a structure subjected to both seismic hazard and blast hazard in both upgraded and non‐upgraded configurations. It is demonstrated how expected life‐cycle cost can be used as a criterion to distinguish between the two choices while satisfying the life safety constraint. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.