New fjords,new coasts,new landscapes: The geomorphology of paraglacial coasts formed after recent glacier retreat in Brepollen (Hornsund,southern Svalbard)

Changes in the properties and dynamics of tidewater glacier systems are key indicators of the state of Arctic climate and environment. Calving of tidewater glacier fronts is currently the dominant form of ice mass loss and a major contributor to global sea-level rise. An important yet under-studied aspect of this process is transformation of Arctic landscapes, where new lands and coastal systems are revealed due to the recession of marine-terminating ice masses. The evolution of those freshly exposed paraglacial coastal environments is controlled by nearshore marine, coastal and terrestrial geomorphic processes, which rework glacial-derived sediments to create new coastal paraglacial landforms and landscapes. Here, we present the first study of the paraglacial coasts of Brepollen, one of the youngest bays of Svalbard revealed by ice retreat. We describe and classify coastal systems and the variety of landforms (deltas, cliffs, tidal flats, beaches) developed along the shores of Brepollen during the last 100 years. We further discuss the main modes of sediment supply to the coast in different parts of the new bay, highlighting the fast rate of coastal transformation as a paraglacial response to rapid deglaciation in the Arctic. This study provides an exemplar of likely coastal responses to be anticipated in similar tidewater settings under future climate change. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

Why permafrost rocks become unstable: a rock–ice‐mechanical model in time and space

In this paper, we develop a mechanical model that relates the destabilization of thawing permafrost rock slopes to temperature‐related effects on both, rock‐ and ice‐mechanics; and laboratory testing of key assumptions is performed. Degrading permafrost is considered to be an important factor for rock–slope failures in alpine and arctic environments, but the mechanics are poorly understood. The destabilization is commonly attributed to changes in ice‐mechanical properties while bedrock friction and fracture propagation have not been considered yet. However, fracture toughness, compressive and tensile strength decrease by up to 50% and more when intact water‐saturated rock thaws. Based on literature and experiments, we develop a modified Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion for ice‐filled rock fractures that incorporates fracturing of rock bridges, friction of rough fracture surfaces, ductile creep of ice and detachment mechanisms along rock–ice interfaces. Novel laboratory setups were developed to assess the temperature dependency of the friction of ice‐free rock–rock interfaces and the shear detachment of rock–ice interfaces. In degrading permafrost, rock‐mechanical properties may control early stages of destabilization and become more important for higher normal stress, i.e. higher magnitudes of rock–slope failure. Ice‐mechanical properties outbalance the importance of rock‐mechanical components after the deformation accelerates and are more relevant for smaller magnitudes. The model explains why all magnitudes of rock–slope failures can be prepared and triggered by permafrost degradation and is capable of conditioning long para‐glacial response times. Here, we present a synoptic rock‐ and ice‐mechanical model that explains the mechanical destabilization processes operating in warming permafrost rocks. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decadal‐scale change of infiltration characteristics of a tephra‐mantled hillslope at Mount St Helens,Washington

The cataclysmic 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens radically reduced the infiltration characteristics of ∼60 000 ha of rugged terrain and dramatically altered landscape hydrology. Two decades of erosional, biogenic, cryogenic, and anthropogenic activity have modified the infiltration characteristics of much of that devastated landscape and modulated the hydrological impact of the eruption. We assessed infiltration and runoff characteristics of a segment of hillslope thickly mantled with tephra, but now revegetated primarily with grasses and other plants, to evaluate hydrological modifications due to erosion and natural turbation. Eruptive disturbance reduced infiltration capacity of the hillslope by as much as 50‐fold. Between 1980 and 2000, apparent infiltration capacities of plots on the hillslope increased as much as ten fold, but remain approximately three to five times less than the probable pre‐eruption capacities. Common regional rainfall intensities and snowmelt rates presently produce little surface runoff; however, high‐magnitude, low‐frequency storms and unusually rapid snowmelt can still induce broad infiltration‐excess overland flow. After 20 years, erosion and natural mechanical turbation have modulated, but not effaced, the hydrological perturbation caused by the cataclysmic eruption. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of post‐glacial rebound on landslide spatial distribution at a regional scale in northern Iceland (Skagafjörður)

In de‐glaciated areas, para‐glaciation (i.e. the conditioning of landscapes by prior glaciation) has often been considered a major predisposing factor in landslide occurrence; its consequences have been particularly well identified at a fine scale (especially on bedrock jointing). Hitherto, the relative impacts of para‐glaciation on hillslope dynamics at a regional scale had nevertheless not been quantified statistically. We examine Skagafjörður area (northern Iceland) where landslides are widespread (at least 108 were mapped in an area of c. 3000 km²). We compare the role of para‐glaciation (debuttressing, influence of post‐glacial rebound) with that of classic factors (topography, lithology, etc.) in landslide occurrence and location, using a spatial analysis based on a chi‐square test. On the one hand, the results highlight that landslides are over‐represented in areas where post‐glacial rebound was at its maximum, with a stronger concentration of landslides in the northern part of the fjord. On the other hand, the distribution of landslides did not show any clear relationship with the pattern of glacial debuttressing. Tschuprow coefficient highlights that the influence of post‐glacial rebound on landslide location is higher than the combined influence of slope gradient, curvature or geological structure. This result is supported by our initial evidence for the timing of landslides in the area: most landslides occurred during the first half of the Holocene, and a period of hillslope instability was initiated when the post‐glacial uplift was at its maximum. Finally, the mechanisms that link post‐glacial rebound and landsliding as well as the geomorphic impacts of landslides, are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of area under‐estimations of sloped mountain terrain on simulated hydrological behaviour: a case study using the ACRU model

Sloped areas calculated from a GIS raster file, such as a digital elevation model, are smaller than the true surface area, because they are projected to a planimetric plane. In mountainous regions this sloped area under‐estimation (SAUE) can have significant consequences on hydrological calculations. A sensitivity analysis is conducted, using the ACRU agro‐hydrological modelling system in a small watershed in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, to investigate the sensitivity of the SAUE on key elements of the hydrological cycle, including precipitation depth, April snow depth, August soil moisture deficit, actual evapotranspiration depth, and runoff depth. The sensitivity analysis is based on 224 unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover types, elevation with associated precipitation depths, and north and south facing radiation regimes. Results revealed an increasing influence of the SAUE on all hydrological processes with increasing slope steepness. Distinct differences and magnitudes between different land cover types, different elevations, and, in particular, different exposition were quantified. Actual evapotranspiration increases with SAUE, while runoff decreases. April soil water is simulated to decrease with an increase in SAUE. Finally, a comparison of a streamflow simulation of a small and steep alpine watershed with and without consideration of the SAUE is carried out. The sloped area of the small watershed is under‐estimated by 20·9%, and the difference in simulated runoff is 12·3%. When the SAUE was not considered, runoff was simulated to be higher, the associated coefficient of determination was slightly lower, and the slope of the regression line was flatter. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of epikarst in near‐surface hydrological processes in a soil mantled subtropical dolomite karst slope: implications of field rainfall simulation experiments

Epikarst exerts a strong control on run‐off generation in karst regions, but it is still unclear in karst regions. Our study aimed to demonstrate the effect of epikarst on near‐surface hydrological processes in a subtropical cockpit karst region of southwest China, using plot‐scale rainfall simulation experiments with different rainfall intensities (low and high) and antecedent moisture conditions (dry and wet). A trench excavated to the epikarst lower boundary allowed identification of flow pathways in the entire soil–epikarst architecture system, thus facilitating the water balance calculations using a conceptual model with the assumption of a two‐stage hydrological evolution. More than 70% of the total rainfall water moved vertically through the shallow soil layer and then was redistributed by the epikarst as subsurface flow occurring on the soil–epikarst interface, depression filling on epikarst surface, water held by epikarst and deep percolation. Epikarst water regulation capacity, defined as the sum of depression filling on epikarst surface, water held by epikarst, epikarst seepage flow and deep percolation, was 58 mm (wet antecedent condition) and 223 mm (dry antecedent condition). Total run‐off from the soil–epikarst system was dominated by saturated subsurface flow showing a threshold process controlled by epikarst storage capacity (storing as much as 181 mm of rainfall water under dry antecedent condition). Our study proved that despite the epikarst being relatively poorly developed and covered by a soil mantle, it still exerted a strong influence on near‐surface hydrological processes and thus should be adequately considered in future modelling of water recharge and depletion dynamics in this integrated soil–epikarst system. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remote sensing and GIS‐based flood vulnerability assessment of human settlements: a case study of Gangetic West Bengal,India

Flooding due to excessive rainfall in a short period of time is a frequent hazard in the flood plains of monsoon Asia. In late September 2000, a devastating flood stuck Gangetic West Bengal, India. This particular event has been selected for this study. Instead of following the conventional approach of flooded area delineation and overall damage estimation, this paper seeks to identify the rural settlements that are vulnerable to floods of a given magnitude. Vulnerability of a rural settlement is perceived as a function of two factors: the presence of deep flood water in and around the settlement and its proximity to an elevated area for temporary shelter during an extreme hydrological event. Landsat ETM⁺ images acquired on 30 September 2000 have been used to identify the non‐flooded areas within the flooded zone. Particular effort has been made to differentiate land from water under cloud shadow. ASTER digital elevation data have been used to assess accuracy and rectify the classified image. The presence of large numbers of trees around rural settlements made it particularly difficult to extract the flooded areas from their spectral signatures in the visible and infrared bands. ERS‐1 synthetic aperture radar data are found particularly useful for extracting the settlement areas surrounded by trees. Finally, all information extracted from satellite imageries are imported into ArcGIS, and spatial analysis is carried out to identify the settlements vulnerable to river inundation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations in thickness of fault‐controlled dikes and its implications: A case study of Gosung area,South‐East Korea

Dikes are natural records that can be used to understand the way magma flows in the crust. Coastal platform outcrops in Gosung, South Korea, show clear evidences that their intrusion took place along pre‐existing fractures. We analyzed outcropping dikes, measuring variations in dike thickness as well as fracture density (cumulative number of fractures along strike) and geometry around the dikes. The geometry and thickness variations of dikes intruded along pre‐existing fractures can be interpreted to understand the effect of pre‐existing fractures to evolution on magma flow, especially related with fault damage zones. This helps us to gain a better understanding of magma and fluid flow along pre‐existing fractures. Magma flow is greater along planes that strike perpendicular to the direction of least compressive horizontal stress, and along well connected fractures that show a high degree of connectivity. At the fault tip and linkage damage zone, there is a concentration of extensional fractures; in these areas injected dikelets can form. As faults become linked, the fracture density increases, until they become fully linked and act as one through‐going fault plane. As faults evolve, the boundary conditions of the faults vary and this has an impact on dike characteristics. Fracture geometry around dikes that intruded pre‐existing faults can be used as a record of fault evolution and this can give insights into how the maturity of a fault system can affect to the related magma or fluid flow characteristics.     

Investigating the use of spatial discretization of hydrological processes in conceptual rainfall runoff modelling: a case study for the meso‐scale

In this study a simple modelling approach was applied to identify the need for spatial complexity in representing hydrological processes and their variability over different scales. A data set of 18 basins was used, ranging between 8 and 4011 km² in area, located in the Nahe basin (Germany), with daily discharge values for over 30 years. Two different parsimoniously structured models were applied in lumped as well as in spatially distributed according to two distribution classifications: (1) a simple classification based on the lithology expressed in three permeability types and (2) a more complex classification based on seven dominating runoff production processes. The objective of the study was to compare the performances of the models on a local and on a regional scale as well as between the models with a view to identifying the accuracy in capturing the spatial variability of the rainfall‐runoff relationships. It was shown that the presence of a specific basin characteristic or process of the distribution classification was not related with higher model performance; only a larger basin size promoted higher model performance. The results of this study also indicated that the permeability generally contained more useful information on the spatial heterogeneity of the hydrological behaviour of the natural system than did a more detailed classification on dominating runoff generation processes. Although model performance was slightly lower for the model that used permeability as a distribution classification, consistency in its parameter values was found, which was lacking with the more complex distribution classification. The latter distribution classification had a higher flexibility to optimize towards the variability of the runoff, which resulted in higher performance, however, process representation was applied inconsistently. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Relationships between deformation and mixing processes in lava flows: a case study from Salina (Aeolian Islands,Tyrrhenian Sea)

 The massive unit of a lava flow from Porri volcano (Salina, Aeolian Islands) displays many unusual structures related to the physical interaction between two different magmas. The magma A represents approximately 80% of the exposed lava surface; it has a crystal content of 51 vol.% and a dacitic glass composition (SiO₂=63–64 wt.%). The magma B has a basaltic-andesite glass composition (SiO₂=54–55 wt.%) and a crystal content of approximately 18 vol.%. It occurs as pillow-like enclaves, banding, boudin-like and rolling structures which are hosted in magma A. Structural analysis suggests that banding and boudin-like structures are the result of the deformation of enclaves at different shear strain. The linear correlation between strain and stratigraphic height of the measured elements indicates a single mode of deformation. We deduce that the component B deformed according to a simple shear model. Glass analyses of the A–B boundary indicate that A and B liquids mix together at high shear strain, whereas only mingling occurs at low shear strain. This suggests that the amount of deformation (i.e. forced convection) plays an important role in the formation of hybrid magmas. High shear strain may induce stretching, shearing and rolling of fluids which promote both forced convection and dynamical diffusion processes. These processes allow mixing of magmas with large differences in their physical properties. Received: 15 July 1995 / Accepted: 30 May 1996     

Comparison analysis of the summer monsoon precipitation between northern and southern slopes of Tanggula Mountains,Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau: a case study in summer 1998

Based on the precipitation data obtained through GEWEX Asian Monsoon Experiment–Tibet fieldwork from May to September 1998, this study investigated the features of the summer monsoon precipitation on the northern and southern slopes of the huge Tanggula Mountains in the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau. The results show that the precipitation on the southern slope is about 50% higher than on the northern slope, whereas the frequency and diurnal pattern of the precipitation are very similar. The mean precipitation intensity on the southern slope is larger than on the northern slope. In most cases, the daily precipitation showed similar variation on both slopes, demonstrating that the precipitation processes might be similar. In the summer monsoon period, the local convective precipitation contributed to the total precipitation on both slopes and such a contribution on the southern slope is larger. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

城市地震压埋人员分布评估研究——以天津市区为例

地震压埋人员分布是震后科学、有效地开展应急处置和救援的重要依据.针对地震中建筑物破坏造成的人员压埋,从人口分布和在室率着手,在社区级空间尺度上分时段建立人口数量、在室率和建筑物的对应关系;结合建筑物震害评估方法,构建地震压埋人员快速评估模型,并预评估天津市区各烈度下地震压埋人口的数量和分布情况.结果显示,夜间是发生地震...     

Dune phases in the Otaki‐Te Horo area (New Zealand): a geomorphic history

Optical dating, sedimentological analysis and soil profile development have been used to develop a chronology for, and an understanding of, the geomorphic evolution of the Holocene coastal plain between Otaki and Te Horo, North Island of New Zealand. The coastal plain has prograded 0·48 m a^?1 since sea‐levels reached their post‐glacial maximum 6500 years ago. Dune development on the plain, which is dependent on the supply of sediment suitable for dune building, has been episodic. Three periods of dune activity have been identified – the Foxton, Motuiti and Waitarere phases – the last two of which are believed to have resulted from anthropogenic activities. The dunes north of the Otaki River and south of Mangaone Stream are typical of a coastal dune system that extends from Patea in the north to Paekakariki in the south. However, this system is disrupted by the Otaki River and the gravels it delivers to the coastal zone. Immediately south of the river mouth the dunes are significantly smaller, coarser, and contain significantly more magnetic material. The character of the landforms is the result of: the reworking of the last glacial deposits; ongoing coastal progradation; variation in the input of sediment suitable for dune formation; the change in beach character because of gravel input; and the position of the Otaki River mouth. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Geomorphology of medium‐high mountains under changing human impact,from managed slopes to nature restoration: a study from the Sudetes,SW Poland

In the last few hundred years, medium‐high mountain geomorphic systems of the East Sudetes, central Europe, have evolved under varying human impacts and have shown distinctive behaviours, depending on the nature and intensity of human activities. The general trend within this period has been from initial disturbance brought about by the spread of agriculture, through managed rural landscapes in the 19th and early 20th century, to gradual restoration of natural conditions observed in the last few tens of years, concurrent with considerable population decline in the mountain valleys. Accelerated soil erosion was successfully mitigated by the introduction of agricultural terraces in the 19th century, and most sediment could have been stored within the slopes. The current phase of nature restoration is understood as a return to general slope stability, weak coupling between slopes and channels, and limited sediment transfer across and out of mountainous drainage basins, which typified most of the Holocene prior to human colonization. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Thermal‐infrared remote sensing of surface water–groundwater exchanges in a restored anastomosing channel (Upper Rhine River,France)

Ecohydrological processes are a key element to consider in functional river restorations. In the framework of a LIFE+ European restoration program, we have investigated the potential for airborne thermal‐infrared remote sensing to map surface water–groundwater exchanges and to identify their driving factors. We focused our attention on anastomosing channels on an artificial island of the Upper Rhine River (Rohrschollen), where a new channel was excavated from the floodplain to reconnect an older channel in its upstream part. These hydraulic engineering works led to an increased inflow from the Rhine Canal. Here, we propose an original data treatment chain to (a) georeference the thermal‐infrared images in geographic information system based on visible images, (b) detect and correct data errors, and (c) identify and locate thermal anomalies attributed to groundwater inputs and hyporheic upwellings. Our results, which have been compared to morpho‐sedimentary data, show that groundwater upwelling in the new channel is controlled by riffle–pool sequences and bars. This channel is characterized by large bedload transport and morphodynamic activity, forming riffles and bars. In the old channel, where riffle–pool sequences no longer exist, due to impacts of engineering works and insufficient morphodynamic effects of the restoration, thermal anomalies appeared to be less pronounced. Groundwater inputs seem to be controlled by former gravel bars outcropping on the banks, as well as by local thinning of the low‐permeability clogging layer on the channel bed.     

Rainfall/runoff processes in a small peri‐urban catchment in the Andes mountains. The Rumihurcu Quebrada,Quito (Ecuador)

Situated at the foot of the Pichincha volcano, the city of Quito is frequently subjected to hydroclimatic hazards. In 1995 an 11·2 km² watershed, located in the vicinity of the city, was equipped with eight rain gauges and two flow gauges to better understand the local rainfall/runoff transformation processes. Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out on more than 40 one‐square‐metre plots to measure infiltration point‐processes. The high density of measurement devices allowed us to identify the origin and nature of the various contributions to runoff for the different physiographic units of the watershed: urban area from an altitude of 2800 to 3200 m; farmland, pasture and forested land, and finally páramo above 3900 m. Runoff occurs mainly in the lower part of the basin and is caused by urbanization; however, the natural soils of this area can also produce Hortonian runoff, which is predominant in a few events. This contribution can be studied through rainfall simulation experiments. In the upper natural zone, the younger and more permeable soils generate less runoff on the slopes. However, almost permanently saturated contributing areas, which are located in the bottom of the quebradas, may generate flood events, the size of which depends on the extent of the area concerned. Variations in the runoff coefficients are related first to the baseflow and second to the amount of rainfall in the previous 24 h. This analysis, which underlines the complexity of a small, peri‐urban, volcanic catchment, is a necessary preliminary to runoff modelling in an area where very few experiments have been carried out on small catchments. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Confidence interval of real‐time forecast stages provided by the STAFOM‐RCM model: the case study of the Tiber River (Italy)

This study proposes a statistically based procedure to quantify the confidence interval (CI) to be associated to the stages forecast by a simple model called STAge FOrecasting Model‐Rating Curve Model (STAFOM‐RCM). This model can be used for single river reaches characterized by different intermediate drainage areas and mean wave travel times when real‐time stage records, cross section surveys and rating curves are available at both ends. The model requires, at each time of forecast, an estimate of the lateral contribution q_for between the two sections delimiting the reach. The CI of the stage is provided by analyzing the statistical properties of model output in terms of lateral flow, and it is derived from the CI of the lateral contribution q_for which, in turn, is set up by associating to each q_for the q_opt which allows STAFOM‐RCM to reproduce the exact observed stage. From an operative point of view, the q_for values are ranked in order of magnitude and subdivided in classes where the q_opt values can be represented through normal distributions of proper mean and variance from which an interval of selected confidence level for q_for is computed and transferred to the stage. Three river reaches of the Tiber river, in central Italy, are used as case study. A sensitivity analysis is also performed in order to identify the minimum calibration set of flood events. The CIs obtained are consistent with the level of confidence selected and have practical utility. An interesting aspect is that different CI widths can be produced for the same forecast stage since they depend on the estimate of q_for made at the time of forecast. Overall, the proposed procedure for CI estimate is simple and can be conveniently adapted for other forecasting models provided that they have physically based parameters which need to be updated during the forecast. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ground‐shaking mapping for a scenario earthquake considering effects of geological conditions: a case study for the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu,Japan earthquake

In order to examine the applicability of ground‐shaking mapping techniques to a near‐field earthquake, a peak ground velocity map of the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan earthquake computed from seismic zoning methods that consider the effects of geological conditions is compared with the actual observed intensity map. When computing the ground‐shaking map, the site amplification at each site is calculated in terms of the average shear‐wave velocity of the ground estimated from the corresponding geomorphological conditions. This map shows a relatively good agreement with the observed intensity map. However, the computations provide smaller values for certain disastrous areas of the earthquake, where the effects on ground motion of a deep, irregular underground structure have been reported. The effect of such structures on site response is examined implementing 2D FEM analyses, thereby being also incorporated into the method. Results considering the effect of the irregular underground structure show better agreement with the observed intensity map. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of lindane diffusion along the southeastern Adriatic coastal strip (Mediterranean Sea): a case study in an Albanian industrial area

This study aimed to analyze the impact at sea of a pesticide factory located 7 km north of Durres (Albania) by investigating a lowland area under the sea situated 0.7 km from the shoreline. The main product of this factory was lindane. Production ceased in 1991 during the Albanian civil war, and a large amount of industrial waste was dispersed over the ground surrounding the factory, resulting in a high level of lindane pollution. A water-scoop channels the ground water accumulated around the disused factory directly into the sea. The concentrations of lindane in sediments collected along the coasts of the region ranged from 0.60 to 22.55 ng g(-1). The average concentration in the muscles of fish did not exceed the limits specified by European Commission legislation, whereas the concentration in the liver did exceed these limits; consequently, liver is not recommended for consumption.     

An automated cross‐validation method to assess seismic time‐to‐depth conversion accuracy: a case study on the Cooper and Eromanga basins,Australia

Selecting a seismic time‐to‐depth conversion method can be a subjective choice that is made by geophysicists, and is particularly difficult if the accuracy of these methods is unknown. This study presents an automated statistical approach for assessing seismic time‐to‐depth conversion accuracy by integrating the cross‐validation method with four commonly used seismic time‐to‐depth conversion methods. To showcase this automated approach, we use a regional dataset from the Cooper and Eromanga basins, Australia, consisting of 13 three‐dimensional (3D) seismic surveys, 73 two‐way‐time surface grids and 729 wells. Approximately 10,000 error values (predicted depth vs. measured well depth) and associated variables were calculated. The average velocity method was the most accurate overall (7.6 m mean error); however, the most accurate method and the expected error changed by several metres depending on the combination and value of the most significant variables. Cluster analysis tested the significance of the associated variables to find that the seismic survey location (potentially related to local geology (i.e. sedimentology, structural geology, cementation, pore pressure, etc.), processing workflow, or seismic vintage), formation (potentially associated with reduced signal‐to‐noise with increasing depth or the changes in lithology), distance to the nearest well control, and the spatial location of the predicted well relative to the existing well data envelope had the largest impact on accuracy. Importantly, the effect of these significant variables on accuracy were found to be more important than choosing between the four methods, highlighting the importance of better understanding seismic time‐to‐depth conversions, which can be achieved by applying this automated cross‐validation method.