ROC‐based calibration of flood inundation models

The use of spatial patterns of flood inundation (often obtained from remotely sensed imagery) to calibrate flood inundation models has been widespread over the last 15 years. Model calibration is most often achieved by employing one or even several performance measures derived from the well‐known confusion matrix based on a binary classification of flooding. However, relatively early on, it has been recognized that the use of commonly reported performance measures for calibrating flood inundation models (such as the F measure) is hampered because the calibration procedure commonly utilizes only one possible solution of a wet/dry classification of a remote sensing image [most often acquired by a synthetic aperture radar (SAR)] to calibrate or validate models and are biased towards either over‐prediction or under‐prediction of flooding. Despite the call in several studies for an alternative statistic, to this date, very few, if any, unbiased performance measure based on the confusion matrix has been proposed for flood model calibration/validation studies. In this paper, we employ a robust statistical measure that operates in the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) space and allows automated model calibration with high identifiability of the best model parameter set but without the need of a classification of the SAR image. The ROC‐based method for flood model calibration is demonstrated using two different flood event test cases with flood models of varying degree of complexity and boundary conditions with varying degree of accuracy. Verification of the calibration results and optional SAR classification is successfully performed with independent observations of the events. We believe that this proposed alternative approach to flood model calibration using spatial patterns of flood inundation should be employed instead of performance measures commonly used in conjunction with a binary flood map. © 2013 California Institute of Technology. Hydrological Processes © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HAND contour: a new proxy predictor of inundation extent

Tools for accurately predicting environmental risks, such as the location and spatial extent of potential inundation, are not widely available. A dependence on calibration and a lack of available flood data have prevented the widespread application of existing hydrodynamic methods for predicting the extent of inundation. We use the height above the nearest drainage (HAND) terrain model to develop a simple static approach for mapping the potential extent of inundation that does not depend on flood observations and extends beyond methods for mapping low‐lying areas. While relying on the contour concept, the method utilizes drainage‐normalized topography and flowpaths to delineate the relative vertical distances (drop) to the nearest river. The HAND‐delineated relative drop is an effective distributed predictor of flood potential, which is directly related to the river stage height. We validated the new HAND contour approach using a flood event in Southern Brazil for which high‐resolution maps were available. The results indicated that the flood hazard‐mapping method accurately predicted the inundation extent of the channel carrying the flood wave and the channels influenced by flooding. For channels positioned outside of the flood‐wave area, the method overestimated the actual flood extent. As an original static assessment of floodwaters across the landscape, the HAND contour method could be used to map flood hazards in areas with poor information and could promote the development of new methods for predicting hydrological hazards. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sub-grid scale parameterisation of 2D hydrodynamic models of inundation in the urban area

This paper presents preliminary results from a study considering the parameterisation of coarse-grid 2D flood models to take into account sub-grid scale flow patterns occurring in the urban area. A simulation of a severe flood in an urbanized coastal floodplain is first run using a fine grid that can resolve the flow around and between buildings. Next, the same model is run again using the same underlying topography, although stripped from any buildings, and a set of 7 values of the roughness parameter (Manning’s n), all larger than (or equal to) the value used in the original run. A further set of simulations is carried out using a five-fold increased grid cell size. It is found that while it may be possible to model the overall effects of the buildings using strongly increased roughness parameter values, using a coarse grid otherwise has implications related to the loss of information about the site topography that results in flood flow routes being incorrectly modelled.     

Evaluation of inundation areas resulting from the diversion of an extreme discharge towards the sea: case study in Tabasco,Mexico

This investigation comprises the hydraulic characterisation of a river located in the Mexican State of Tabasco, including the performance of its flood plain under the action of an extreme river discharge. This is done through the combination of a high‐quality validation dataset, remote sensing information, and a standard 2D numerical model. The dataset was collected during an intensive field campaign that took place in August 2009. In particular, in situ measurements of river discharge, bathymetry, water level, and velocities through a whole tidal cycle are employed along with multi‐spectral satellite imagery. The purpose of this study is twofold. Firstly, the integrated approach comprising the combination of a 2D hydrodynamic model, high‐quality in situ measurements and satellite imagery reduce the uncertainty in the model parameterisation and results. Secondly, it is shown that freely available sources of information, such as the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data can be processed and utilized in 2D hydraulic models. This is particularly important in countries where high‐resolution elevation data is not yet available. It is demonstrated that the selected approach is useful when the study of possible consequences in a flood plain induced by an extreme flood discharge are sought. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of uncertainty propagation in flood inundation mapping using a 1‐D hydraulic model

A need for more accurate flood inundation maps has recently arisen because of the increasing frequency and extremity of flood events. The accuracy of flood inundation maps is determined by the uncertainty propagated from all of the variables involved in the overall process of flood inundation modelling. Despite our advanced understanding of flood progression, it is impossible to eliminate the uncertainty because of the constraints involving cost, time, knowledge, and technology. Nevertheless, uncertainty analysis in flood inundation mapping can provide useful information for flood risk management. The twin objectives of this study were firstly to estimate the propagated uncertainty rates of key variables in flood inundation mapping by using the first‐order approximation method and secondly to evaluate the relative sensitivities of the model variables by using the Hornberger–Spear–Young (HSY) method. Monte Carlo simulations using the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System and triangle‐based interpolation were performed to investigate the uncertainty arising from discharge, topography, and Manning's n in the East Fork of the White River near Seymour, Indiana, and in Strouds Creek in Orange County, North Carolina. We found that the uncertainty of a single variable is propagated differently to the flood inundation area depending on the effects of other variables in the overall process. The uncertainty was linearly/nonlinearly propagated corresponding to valley shapes of the reaches. In addition, the HSY sensitivity analysis revealed the topography of Seymour reach and the discharge of Strouds Creek to be major contributors to the change of flood inundation area. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Validation of a full hydrodynamic model for large‐scale hydrologic modelling in the Amazon

A key aspect of large river basins partially neglected in large‐scale hydrological models is river hydrodynamics. Large‐scale hydrologic models normally simulate river hydrodynamics using simplified models that do not represent aspects such as backwater effects and flood inundation, key factors for some of the largest rivers of the world, such as the Amazon. In a previous paper, we have described a large‐scale hydrodynamic approach resultant from an improvement of the MGB‐IPH hydrological model. It uses full Saint Venant equations, a simple storage model for flood inundation and GIS‐based algorithms to extract model parameters from digital elevation models. In the present paper, we evaluate this model in the Solimões River basin. Discharge results were validated using 18 stream gauges showing that the model is accurate. It represents the large delay and attenuation of flood waves in the Solimões basin, while simplified models, represented here by Muskingum Cunge, provide hydrographs are wrongly noisy and in advance. Validation against 35 stream gauges shows that the model is able to simulate observed water levels with accuracy, representing their amplitude of variation and timing. The model performs better in large rivers, and errors concentrate in small rivers possibly due to uncertainty in river geometry. The validation of flood extent results using remote sensing estimates also shows that the model accuracy is comparable to other flood inundation modelling studies. Results show that (i) river‐floodplain water exchange and storage, and (ii) backwater effects play an important role for the Amazon River basin hydrodynamics. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Remote sensing of river stage using the cross‐sectional inundation area‐river stage relationship (IARSR) constructed from digital elevation model data

Remote sensing of discharge and river stage from space provides us with a promising alternative approach to monitor watersheds, no matter if they are ungauged, poorly gauged, or fully gauged. One approach is to estimate river stage from satellite measured inundation area based on the inundation area – river stage relationship (IARSR). However, this approach is not easy to implement because of a lack of data for constructing the IARSR. In this study, an innovative and robust approach to construct the IARSR from digital elevation model (DEM) data was developed and tested. It was shown that the constructed IARSR from DEM data could be used to retrieve water level or river stage from satellite‐measured inundation area. To reduce the uncertainty in the estimated inundation area, a dual‐thresholding method was proposed. The first threshold is the lower limit of pixel value for classifying water body pixels with a relatively high‐level certainty. The second threshold is the upper limit of pixel value for classifying potentially flooded pixels. All pixels with values between the first threshold and the second threshold and adjacent to the classified water body pixels may be partially flooded. A linear interpolation method was used to estimate the wetted area of each partially flooded pixel. In applying the constructed IARSR to the estimated inundation areas from 11 Landsat TM images, 11 water levels were obtained. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the estimated water levels compared with the observed water levels at the US Geological Survey (USGS) gauging station on the Trinity River at Liberty in Liberty County, Texas, is about 0.38 m. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reservoir storage for managing floods in urban areas: a case study of Dzorwulu basin in Accra

The study simulated the effect of using reservoir storage for reducing flood peaks and volumes in urban areas with the Dzorwulu basin in Accra, Ghana as case study. A triangulated irregular network surface of the floodplain was created using ArcGIS from ESRI by integrating digital elevation model and the map of the study area. The weighted curve number for the basin was obtained from the land use and soil type shape files using ArcGIS. The Soil Conservation Service curve number unit hydrograph procedure was used to obtain an inflow hydrograph based on the highest rainfall recorded in recent history (3–4 June 1995) in the study area and then routed through an existing reservoir to assess the impact of the reservoir on potential flood peak attenuation. The results from the analysis indicate that a total of 13.09 × 10⁶ m³ of flood water was generated during this 10‐h rainstorm, inundating a total area of 6.89 km² with a depth of 4.95 m at the deepest section of the basin stream. The routing results showed that the reservoir has capacity to store 34.52% of the flood hydrograph leading to 45% reduction in flood peak and subsequently 38.5% reduction in flood inundation depth downstream of the reservoir. From results of the study, the reservoir storage concept looks promising for urban flood management in Ghana, especially in communities that are over‐urbanized downstream but have some space upstream for creating the storage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Enhanced modeling of latent heat flux from urban surfaces in the Noah/single-layer urban canopy coupled model

The numerical modeling of the impacts of urban buildings in mesoscale meteorological models has gradually improved in recent years. Correctly representing the latent heat flux from urban surfaces is a key issue in urban land-atmosphere coupling studies but is a common weakness in current urban canopy models. Using the surface energy balance data at a height of 140 m from a 325 m meteorological tower in Beijing, we conducted a 1-year continuous off-line simulation by using a coupled land surface model and a single-layer urban canopy model and found that this model has a relatively large systematic error for simulated latent heat flux. To improve the numerical method for modeling latent heat flux from urban surfaces, we combined observational analysis and urban land surface model to derive an oasis effect coefficient for urban green areas; to develop a temporal variation formula for water availability in urban impervious surfaces; and to specify a diurnal profile and the maximum values of anthropogenic latent heat release for four seasons. These results are directly incorporated into the urban land surface model to improve model performance. In addition, this method serves as a reference for studies in other urban areas.     

类比预测法在城市群体建筑物震害预测中的应用

群体建筑物量大面广,为了简化群体建筑物震害预测的工作,采用类比预测法对群体建筑物震害进行了预测.从城市建筑中选取具有典型破坏特征的建筑物作为样本,通过建筑物结构类型、高度、建设年代、现状质量和用途作为震害影响因子进行震害类比预测.建立规划区内建筑物易损性矩阵.最后以宁德市为例,利用本文方法给出了宁德市建筑物的易损性矩阵...     

Impact of lateral flow and spatial scaling on the simulation of semi‐arid urban land surfaces in an integrated hydrologic and land surface model

Understanding and representing hydrologic fluxes in the urban environment is challenging because of fine scale land cover heterogeneity and lack of coherent scaling relationships. Here, the impact of urban land cover heterogeneity, scale, and configuration on the hydrologic and surface energy budget (SEB) is assessed using an integrated, coupled land surface/hydrologic model at high spatial resolutions. Archetypes of urban land cover are simulated at varying resolutions using both the National Land Cover Database (NLCD; 30 m) and an ultra high‐resolution land cover dataset (0.6 m). The analysis shows that the impact of highly organized, yet heterogeneous, land cover typical of the urban domain can cause large variations in hydrologic and energy fluxes within areas of similar land cover. The lateral flow processes that occur within each simulation create variations in overland flow of up to ±200% and ±4% in evapotranspiration. The impact on the SEB is smaller and largely restricted to the wet season for our semi‐arid forcing scenarios. Finally, we find that this seasonal bias, predominantly caused by lateral flow, is displaced by a systematic diurnal bias at coarser resolutions caused by deficiencies in the method used for scaling of land surface and hydrologic parameters. As a result of this research, we have produced land surface parameters for the widely used NLCD urban land cover types. This work illustrates the impact of processes that remain unrepresented in traditional high‐resolutions land surface models and how they may affect results and uncertainty in modeling of local water resources and climate. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic estimation of sediment production in an urban catchment using the USLE model

The goals of this study were to map the spatial distribution of sediment production and to estimate the probability of this production at the waterline based on a high potential of silting. The RUSLE-GIS model and Monte Carlo simulation were used. A sensitivity analysis of stochastic factors was performed by calculating the simple correlation coefficient. This procedure was applied to the Estrada Nova catchment, located in the city of Belém, northern Brazil, which has been subject to channel improvements and the construction of a detention basin. The results indicate that, following the urbanization and drainage improvements, there was a reduction in the annual sediment production probability, which is consistent with the dynamics in land use. The erodibility was the most sensitive factor in the sedimentation estimates. The methodology was considered an alternative to estimate sediment production in an urban catchment.     

三维地震勘探在城市活断层精确定位中的意义

回顾了城市活断层探测现状,指出了采用二维地震探测在活断层精确定位中存在中浅层小构造控制程度较差,在地层倾角较大地区断层归位不够准确,受建筑物和其它障碍物限制致使测线布设与断层走向斜交造成断层定位不准,以及由于测网密度限制造成的断层交汇处、断层分段点、端点位置控制程度较差等主要问题．从理论上分析了三维地震勘探的优势,认为三维地震勘探可以较好地解决由于二维地震勘探本身的技术缺陷和地表环境、地质条件影响所造成的断层定位不准的问题．通过实例剖析,从野外采集难点, 仪器选择, 观测系统定义, 优化施工设计, 野外质量监控, 特殊数据处理手段, 以及取得的良好地质效果等方面进行详细阐述,论证了利用三维地震探测在城市进行活断层精确定位中的可行性及其意义．      

地震地质综合解释在辽河油田东部凹陷中段构造解释的应用

地震资料解释一个地区时综合使用地震和地质资料非常重要。作者在辽河油田东部凹陷的构造解释中,首先,利用野外观察到的地质构造现象, 建立地质露头模型;然后根据典型露头照片所示的构造特征对断层进行组合和构造解释;进而结合地震剖面特征分析油气的运移、聚集和成藏特征。通过地震地质综合解释的研究,推断出研究区内的走滑断层为油气的主控因素,走滑断层发育地区为油气富集的有利地带,同时对黄沙坨和欧利坨子油田的构造样式以及和油气之间关系进行了分析和研究。     

The application of seismic-geological integrated interpretation in the eastern depression of the Liaohe oil field

It is very important to comprehensively interpret areal seismic data with geological data in a research area. For the structural interpretations in the middle depression of the eastern basin of Liaohe oilfield, we first analyze and study geological phenomena on outcrop pictures collected in the field and establish geological outcrop models. Second, we make fault and structural interpretations based on the structural characteristics of the outcrop pictures. Third, we analyze the migration, accumulation, and formation of oil and gas using characteristics of seismic profiles. By geologic and geophysical comprehensive interpretation, it is inferred that, in the research area, the dominant factor controlling oil and gas accumulation is strike-slip faults. Structural modes and the relationship of the oil and gas in the Huangshatuo and Oulituozi oil fields are also analyzed and investigated.     

Groundwater temperature evolution in the subsurface urban heat island of Cologne,Germany

Long‐term heating of shallow urban aquifers is observed worldwide. Our measurements in the city of Cologne, Germany revealed that the groundwater temperatures found in the city centre are more than 5 K higher than the undisturbed background. To explore the role of groundwater flow for the development of subsurface urban heat islands, a numerical flow and heat transport model is set up, which describes the hydraulic conditions of Cologne and simulates the transient evolution of thermal anomalies in the urban ground. A main focus is on the influence of horizontal groundwater flow, groundwater recharge and trends in local ground warming. To examine heat transport in groundwater, a scenario consisting of a local hot spot with a length of 1 km of long‐term ground heating was set up in the centre of the city. Groundwater temperature‐depth profiles at upstream, central and downstream locations of this hot spot are inspected. The simulation results indicate that the main thermal transport mechanisms are long‐term vertical conductive heat input, horizontal advection and transverse dispersion. Groundwater recharge rates in the city are low (<100 mm a^?1) and thus do not significantly contribute to heat transport into the urban aquifer. With groundwater flow, local vertical temperature profiles become very complex and are hard to interpret, if local flow conditions and heat sources are not thoroughly known. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Dynamic Model to Simulate Spills of Fuel and Diesel Oil in the Terrestrial Environment during Extreme Fluvial Floods

Extreme fluvial floods may cause severe contamination with fuel oil and diesel, originating from gasoline pipes and tanks in private households and industrial areas, respectively. Geo‐referenced oil spills in the region of Bitterfeld (Germany) after extreme flood events, such as in August 2002, were simulated using the two‐dimensional (2D) Finite Element model system Telemac2D, which is subdivided into a hydrodynamic (Telemac‐2D) and a transport module (Subief2D). Fuel oil settled via adhesion showed a thickness of less than 1.0 mm. Fuel oil concentrations on the flood wave amounted up to 80 g m^–3 in the vicinity of the point sources. At a distance of several hundred meters downstream of the point sources, the fuel oil concentrations were calculated to be zero. Settled areas were only partially contaminated with fuel oil. While one village experienced severe oil contamination, the town of Bitterfeld was almost unaffected by oil spills. It was demonstrated that the 2D transport model applied is capable of simulating fuel oil spills during extreme high waters in the terrestrial environment. Such simulations of fuel oil spills will feed into a GIS‐based decision support system of flood protection.     

Application of Gibbs’ model to urban drainage networks: a case study in southwestern Chicago,USA

Hydrologic analysis of urban drainage networks often encounters a number of issues, including data acquisition and preparation for modelling, which can be costly and time‐consuming processes. Moreover, it can get more challenging with missing data and complex loops inside networks. In this article, Gibbs’ model is applied to urban drainage networks to investigate the possibility of replacing an actual existing urban drainage network in terms of the shape and peak flow of the hydrographs at the outlet. The characteristic network configuration is given as a value of a parameter β of Gibbs’ model. Instead of the actual network, stochastic networks from Monte‐Carlo simulation are utilized to obtain a synthetic width function from the generated networks, and runoff hydrographs are estimated based on it. The results show that the synthetic width function and the resulting hydrographs obtained from the networks simulated by Gibbs’ model are close to those from the actual network. The result also shows that even the behaviour of a looped network can be approximated by equivalent dendritic networks generated by Gibbs’ model. The applicability of a stochastic network model in urban catchment implies a complement to modelling approaches in case of data unavailability. Moreover, the network property (β) is utilized not only to estimate the discharge hydrograph of a catchment but also as a key link to evaluate the effect from rainstorm movement in urban catchments. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is anthropogenic land subsidence a possible driver of riverine flood-hazard dynamics? A case study in Ravenna,Italy

ABSTRACT

We investigate possible changes in flood hazard over a 77-km² area around the city of Ravenna. The subsidence rate in the area, naturally a few mm year^?1, increased dramatically after World War II because of groundwater and natural gas extraction, exceeding 110?mm year^?1 and resulting in cumulative drops larger than 1.5?m. The Montone–Ronco river system flows in the southern portion of the area, which is protected against frequent flooding by levees. We performed two-dimensional simulations of inundation events associated with levee breaching by considering four different terrain configurations: current topography and a reconstruction of ground elevations before anthropogenic land subsidence, both neglecting and representing the main linear infrastructures (e.g. roads, artificial channels). Results show that flood-hazard changes due to anthropogenic land subsidence (e.g. significant changes in computed water depth and velocity) are observed over less than 10% of the study area and are definitely less important than those resulting from construction of the linear infrastructures.     

A coupled vertically integrated model to describe lateral exchanges between surface and subsurface in large alluvial floodplains with a fully penetrating river

This paper presents a vertically averaged model for studying water and solute exchanges between a large river and its adjacent alluvial aquifer. The hydraulic model couples horizontal 2D Saint Venant equations for river flow and a 2D Dupuit equation for aquifer flow. The dynamic coupling between river and aquifer is provided by continuity of fluxes and water level elevation between the two domains. Equations are solved simultaneously by linking the two hydrological system matrices in a single global matrix in order to ensure the continuity conditions between river and aquifer and to accurately model two‐way coupling between these two domains. The model is applied to a large reach (about 36 km²) of the Garonne River (south‐western France) and its floodplain, including an instrumented site in a meander. Simulated hydraulic heads are compared with experimental measurements on the Garonne River and aquifer in the floodplain. Model verification includes comparisons for one point sampling date (27 piezometers, 30 March 2000) and for hydraulic heads variations measured continuously over 5 months (5 piezometers, 1 January to 1 June 2000). The model accurately reproduces the strong hydraulic connections between the Garonne River and its aquifer, which are confirmed by the simultaneous variation of the water level in the river and in piezometers located near the river bank. The simulations also confirmed that the model is able to reproduce groundwater flow dynamics during flood events. Given these results, the hydraulic model was coupled with a solute‐transport component, based on advection‐dispersion equations, to investigate the theoretical dynamics of a conservative tracer over 5 years throughout the 36 km² reach studied. Meanders were shown to favour exchanges between river and aquifer, and although the tracer was diluted in the river, the contamination moved downstream from the injection plots and affected both river banks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.