Delineating groundwater potential zones in a hard-rock terrain using geospatial tool

Abstract

Geospatial techniques have become one of the leading tools in the field of natural sciences for assessment, monitoring and management of natural resources, particularly in groundwater research. The paper discusses the demarcation and assessment of groundwater potential zones using geospatial techniques in the Deccan Volcanic Province of Maharashtra, India, using multi-criteria analyses. The study incorporates integration of thematic information (geomorphology, lithology, drainage density, slope and lineaments) in a GIS environment in order to identify groundwater potential zones. The methodology adopted can be used as a rapid assessment tool in groundwater exploration and is helpful in predictive groundwater resource management. Multi-criteria evaluation techniques were used to integrate all the thematic layers. Individual themes and their corresponding categories were assigned a knowledge base ranking from 1 to 5, depending on their importance for groundwater potential. Using the Raster calculator tool in Arc GIS software, all thematic maps were integrated to produce a composite groundwater potential map of the study area. The identified groundwater potential zones were classified into four classes, from excellent to poor. The generated groundwater potential zones were validated with field checks and borewell/dugwell yield data, and showed consistency with the observations.

Citation Singh, P., Thakur, J. K., and Kumar, S. (2013) Delineating groundwater potential zones in a hard-rock terrain using geospatial tools. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (1), 1–11.     

Integration of remote sensing and electrical sounding data for hydrogeological exploration—a case study of Bakhar watershed,India / Intégration de données de télédétection et de sondages électriques pour l'exploration hydrogéologique—étude de cas du bassin versant de Bakhar,Inde

Abstract

A geographical information system (GIS) was used for the integration of hydrological data acquired using remote sensing and geoelectrical techniques to understand the groundwater condition of Bakhar watershed, Mirazpur District, UP, India. Indian remote sensing IRS-1D, LISS—III data were used to prepare a geomorphological and lineament map of the Bakhar watershed. Vertical electrical sounding (VES) was carried out in different geomorphic units, and ranges of electrical resistivity values were assigned to the different formations by calibrating electrical resistivity with borehole data. Based on these, a subsurface resistivity map and an aquifer thickness map were prepared. Several layers were superimposed using GIS techniques. Each theme was assigned a weight, depending on its influence on groundwater recharge. Each class or unit in the map was assigned a knowledge-based rank from one to four, depending on its significance in storage and transmittance of groundwater, and these were then multiplied by the layer weighting to produce a score. Based on these scores, the watershed was categorized into different groundwater potential zones. The results indicate that the eastern and northern parts of the study area have very good groundwater potential to meet the demands of water for irrigation and domestic purposes, whereas the southern region has poor groundwater potential zones. Such integrated analysis has not been attempted so far in this region for hydrogeological investigation.     

Modelling potential areas of groundwater development for agriculture in northern Ghana using GIS/RS

Abstract

Groundwater development potential in northern Ghana (108 671 km²) has been assessed by combining spatial layers for five critical factors—recharge rate, regolith thickness, transmissivity, borehole success rate and static water level—through a multi-criteria analysis approach to rank development potential from the viewpoint of groundwater availability and accessibility at a resolution of 1 km². The results indicate a high potential for development in the study area, as about 70% of the area was found to have high to moderate groundwater availability, while 83% has high to medium groundwater accessibility. Comparing the two main hydrogeological environments, the Precambrian Basement rocks (PCB) area was found to generally have a higher groundwater development potential than the Voltaian Sedimentary rocks (VSB). More detailed investigation revealed that the VSB can produce a small proportion of exceptionally high-yielding boreholes that can support large-scale irrigation. A test of the reliability of results showed that generally, the majority of high- and low-yielding boreholes fall in areas predicted by the model as having high and low groundwater availability, respectively.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor D. Hughes

Citation Forkuor, G., Pavelic, P., Asare, E., and Obuobie, E., 2013. Modelling potential areas of groundwater development for agriculture in northern Ghana using GIS/RS. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (2), 437–451.     

Geospatial and geostatistical approach for groundwater potential zone delineation

Over the past few decades, groundwater has become an essential commodity owing to increased demand as a result of growing population, industrialization, urbanization and so on. The water supply situation is expected to become more severe in the future because of continued unsustainable water use and projected change in hydrometeorological parameters due to climate change. This study is based on the integrated approach of remote sensing, geographical information system and multicriteria decision‐making techniques to determine the most important contributing factors that affect the groundwater resources and to delineate the groundwater potential zones. Ten thematic layers, namely, geomorphology, geology, soil, topographic elevation (digital elevation model), land use/land cover, drainage density, lineament density, proximity of surface water bodies, surface temperature and post‐monsoon groundwater depth, were considered for the present study. These thematic layers were selected for groundwater prospecting based on the literature; discussion with the experts of the Central Ground Water Board, Government of India; field observations; geophysical investigation; and multivariate techniques. The thematic layers and their features were assigned suitable weights on Saaty's scale according to their relative significance for groundwater occurrence. The assigned weights of the layers and their features were normalized by using the analytic hierarchy process and eigenvector method. Finally, the selected thematic maps were integrated using a weighted linear combination method to create the final groundwater potential zone map. The final output map shows different zones of groundwater potential, namely, very good (16%), good (35%), moderate (28%) low (17%) and very low (2.1%). The groundwater potential zone map was finally validated using the discharge and groundwater depth data from 28 and 98 pumping wells, respectively, which showed good correlation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2D and 3D resistivity inversion of Schlumberger vertical electrical soundings in Wadi El Natrun,Egypt: A case study

The Wadi El Natrun area is characterized by a very complicated geological and hydrogeological system. 45 vertical electrical soundings (Schlumberger array) were measured in the study area to elucidate the peculiarity of this unique regime, specifically the nature of waterless area. 2D and 3D resistivity inversion based on the finite element technique and regularization method were applied on the data set. 2D and 3D model resolution was investigated through the use of the Depth and Volume of Investigation Indexes. A very good matching was found between the zones of high resistivity, the waterless area, and the non-productive wells. The low resistivity zones (corresponding to Lower Pliocene clay) were also identified. The middle resistivity fresh water aquifer zones were recognized. Available results can assist in the aquifer management by selecting the most productive zone of groundwater.     

Exploring Groundwater Resources and Recharge Potentialities at El-Gallaba Plain,Western Desert,Egypt

Egypt has a fast-growing population rate of 2.5%/year; consequently, there is an increase in the water demand for living and launching different development plans. Meanwhile, there is intensive construction of several dams in the upstream Nile basin countries. Thus, it is necessary to search for new water resources to overcome the expected shortages of the Nile water supply by focusing on alternative groundwater resources. El-Gallaba Plain area is one of the most promising areas in the western desert of Egypt attaining the priority for new reclamation projects; however, its hydrogeological setting is not well understood. The present work aims at identifying the recharge potential of the groundwater aquifers in El-Gallaba Plain, as well as exploring the role of geologic structures as natural conduits, and evaluating the groundwater types, origin and distribution. The integration of hydrogeophysical studies (aero and land magnetic surveys, vertical electrical sounding), hydrochemical analyses and remote sensing were successfully used for assessing the groundwater development potential. The hydrogeophysical studies show a large graben bound aquifer with thickness exceeding 220 m. The hydrochemical results indicate the presence of three major water types; Na mix, Na Cl, Na Cl HCO₃ with salinities ranging between 227 and 4324 mg/L. The aquifer receives little recharge from the western fractured calcareous plateau from past pluvial periods and scarce present flashfloods. There is no indication for recent recharge from Lake Nasser to the aquifer domain. Further modeling studies are essential for establishing sustainable abstraction levels from this aquifer.     

Assessing the Impact of Chlorinated‐Solvent Sites on Metropolitan Groundwater Resources

Chlorinated‐solvent compounds are among the most common groundwater contaminants in the United States. A majority of the many sites contaminated by chlorinated‐solvent compounds are located in metropolitan areas, and most such areas have one or more chlorinated‐solvent contaminated sites. Thus, contamination of groundwater by chlorinated‐solvent compounds may pose a potential risk to the sustainability of potable water supplies for many metropolitan areas. The impact of chlorinated‐solvent sites on metropolitan water resources was assessed for Tucson, Arizona, by comparing the aggregate volume of extracted groundwater for all pump‐and‐treat systems associated with contaminated sites in the region to the total regional groundwater withdrawal. The analysis revealed that the aggregate volume of groundwater withdrawn for the pump‐and‐treat systems operating in Tucson, all of which are located at chlorinated‐solvent contaminated sites, was 20% of the total groundwater withdrawal in the city for the study period. The treated groundwater was used primarily for direct delivery to local water supply systems or for reinjection as part of the pump‐and‐treat system. The volume of the treated groundwater used for potable water represented approximately 13% of the total potable water supply sourced from groundwater, and approximately 6% of the total potable water supply. This case study illustrates the significant impact chlorinated‐solvent contaminated sites can have on groundwater resources and regional potable water supplies.     

Mapping Groundwater Potential Through an Ensemble of Big Data Methods

Groundwater resources are crucial to safe drinking supplies in sub-Saharan Africa, and will be increasingly relied upon in a context of climate change. The need to better understand groundwater calls for innovative approaches to make the best out of the existing information. A methodology to map groundwater potential based on an ensemble of machine learning classifiers is presented. A large borehole database (n = 1848) was integrated into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment and used to train, validate and test 12 machine learning algorithms. Each classifier predicts a binary target (positive or negative borehole) based on the minimum flow rate required for communal domestic supplies. Classification is based on a number of explanatory variables, including landforms, lineaments, soil, vegetation, geology and slope, among others. Correlations between the target and explanatory variables were then generalized to develop groundwater potential maps. Most algorithms attained success rates between 80% and 96% in terms of test score, which suggests that the outcomes provide an accurate picture of field conditions. Statistical learners were observed to perform better than most other algorithms, excepting random forests and support vector machines. Furthermore, it is concluded that the ensemble approach provides added value by incorporating a measure of uncertainty to the results. This technique may be used to rapidly map groundwater potential for rural supply or humanitarian emergencies in areas where there is sufficient historical data but where comprehensive field work is unfeasible.     

GIS integration of hydrogeological and geoelectrical data for groundwater potential modeling in the western part of greater Kushtia district of Bangladesh

Geographical Information System (GIS) has been used in this paper to delineate groundwater resources potential in the western part of greater Kushtia district of Bangladesh, where urgent attention for augmentation of irrigation water supply is required. Thematic maps of transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, net recharge, aquifer thickness, surface water bodies, aquifer resistivity, overburden aquitard thickness and its resistivity have been prepared and assigned weight according to their relative importance using Analytical Hierarchical Process for the preparation of groundwater potential model. Since the values within each thematic map vary significantly, they are classified into various ranges or types and assigned ratings. Finally, the thematic maps are integrated using GIS to prepare the groundwater potential map for the study area in terms of Ground Water Potential Index (GWPI). The evolved map indicates that 22.51% of the study area have GWPI more than 0.70 and therefore, have excellent prospective for exploitation. About 69.12% of the area with GWPI ranging from 0.50 to 0.70 is also quite promising for groundwater abstraction, while the rest 8.37% area having GWPI below 0.50 indicates moderate potential. The obtained map of groundwater potential is found in good agreement with the yields of available pumping test data.     

Hydrological modelling for assessing spatio-temporal groundwater recharge variations in the water-stressed Amathole Water Supply System,Eastern Cape,South Africa

To increase the resilience of regional water supply systems in South Africa in the face of anticipated climatic changes and a constant increase in water demand, water supply sources require diversification. Many water-stressed metropolitan regions in South Africa depend largely on surface water to cover their water demand. While climatic and river discharge data is widely available in these regions, information on groundwater resources – which could support supply source diversification – is scarce. Groundwater recharge is a key parameter that is used to estimate groundwater amounts that can be sustainably exploited at a sub-watershed level. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a reliable hydrological modelling routine that enables the assessment of regional spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge to discern the most promising areas for groundwater development. Accordingly, we present a semi-distributed hydrological modelling approach that incorporates water balance routines coupled with baseflow modelling techniques to yield spatio-temporal variations of groundwater recharge on a regional level. The approach is demonstrated for the actively managed catchment areas of the Amathole Water Supply System situated in a semi-arid part of the Eastern Cape of South Africa. In the investigated study area, annual groundwater recharge exhibits a high spatio-temporal heterogeneity and is estimated to vary between ~0.5% and 8% of annual rainfall. Despite some uncertainties induced by limited data availability, calibration and validation of the model were found to be satisfactory and yielded model results similar to (point) data of annual groundwater recharge reported in earlier studies. Our approach is therefore found to derive crucial information for efficiently targeting more detailed groundwater exploration studies and could work as a blueprint for orientating groundwater potential exploration in similar environments.     

Hydrogeochemistry and groundwater salinization in an ephemeral coastal flood plain: Cap Bon,Tunisia

Abstract

The Wadi Al Ayn plain is a coastal system on the eastern coast of Cap Bon in northeastern Tunisia. The area is known for its intensive agriculture, which is based mainly on groundwater exploitation. The aim of this study is to identify the sources of groundwater salinization in the Wadi Al Ayn aquifer system and deduce the processes that drive the mineralization. Surface water and groundwater samples were taken and analysed for major ions and stable isotopes. The geochemical data were used to characterize and classify the water samples based on a variety of ion plots and diagrams. Stable isotopes are useful tools to help us understand recharge processes and to differentiate between salinity origins. The oilfield brines infiltrated from the sandy bed of Wadi Al Ayn comprise the main source of groundwater salinization in the central part of the plain, while seawater intrusion is mainly responsible for the increased salinity in the groundwater of the coastal part of the plain (at Daroufa).

Citation Chekirbane, A., Tsujimura, M., Kawachi, A., Isoda, H., Tarhouni, J., and Benalaya, A., 2013. Hydrogeochemistry and groundwater salinization in an ephemeral coastal flood plain: Cap Bon, Tunisia. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1097–1110.     

Mapping groundwater‐dependent ecosystems using remote sensing measures of vegetation and moisture dynamics

Protection of groundwater‐dependent ecosystems (GDEs) is an important criterion in sustainable groundwater management, particularly when human water consumption is in competition with environmental water demands; however, the delineation of GDEs is commonly a challenging task. The Groundwater‐dependent Ecosystem Mapping (GEM) method proposed here is based on interpretation of the land surface response to the drying process derived from combined changes in two multispectral indices, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index and the Normalised Difference Wetness Index, both derived from Landsat imagery. The GEM method predicts three land cover classes used for delineation of potential GDEs: vegetation with permanent access to groundwater; vegetation with diminishing access to groundwater; and water bodies that can persist through a prolonged dry period. The method was applied to a study site in the Ellen Brook region of Western Australia, where a number of GDEs associated with localised groundwater, diffuse discharge zones, and riparian vegetation were known. The estimated accuracy of the method indicated a good agreement between the predicted and known GDEs; Producer's accuracy was calculated as up to 91% for some areas. The method is most applicable for mapping GDEs in regions with a distinct drying period. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of Anthropogenic Land Use Changes on Nutrient Concentrations in Surface Waterbodies: A Review

Increased population leads to land use (LU) changes from natural to urban and agricultural LU. These disturbances not only decrease the natural treatment potential but they also worsen surface water quality (SWQ). The aim of this review is to assess studies about impacts of anthropogenic LU changes on levels of nutrient concentrations in surface waterbodies, highlighting the important parameters needed for an integrated simulation. The results reported in the literature are not always fully consistent. These contradictory results can sometimes be explained by field measurements under different climatic conditions, different features of landscapes, air deposition rates on ground surfaces, and groundwater flow interactions with surface water. Integrated modelling has been suggested to overcome these inconsistencies. Physical‐based and empirical models are the most popular approaches for LU‐SWQ studies. Generally, anthropogenic LU such as agricultural and urban areas usually enhances nutrient concentrations much more than natural lands such as forest and barren. Developing sustainable metropolitan areas instead of rural areas, establishing high‐standard wastewater treatment plants, and practicing efficient fertiliser application would ameliorate the poor nutrient conditions in SWQ. Riparian vegetation, grassed swales, and construction of artificial wetlands as buffer zones are the most promising natural water quality control measures.     

Integrated Hydrologic Modeling to Untangle the Impacts of Water Management During Drought

Over the past century, groundwater levels in California's San Joaquin Valley have dropped by more than 30 m in some areas mostly due to excessive groundwater extraction used to irrigate agricultural lands and sustain a growing population. Between 2012 and 2015, California experienced the worst drought in its recorded history, depleting surface water supplies and further exacerbating groundwater depletion in the region. Due to a lack of groundwater regulation, exact quantities of extracted groundwater in California are unknown and hard to quantify. Recent adoption of the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act has intensified efforts to identify sustainable groundwater use. However, understanding sustainable use in a highly productive agricultural system with an extremely complex surface water allocation system, variable groundwater use, and spatially extensive and diverse irrigation practices is no easy task. Using an integrated hydrologic model coupled with a land surface model, we evaluated how water management activities, specifically a suite of irrigation and groundwater pumping scenarios, impact surface water–groundwater fluxes and storage components and how those activities and the relationships between them change during drought. Results showed that groundwater pumping volume had the most significant impact on long-term water storage changes. A comparison with total water storage anomaly (TWSA) estimates from NASA's Gravity Recover and Climate Experiment (GRACE) provided some insight regarding which combinations of pumping and irrigation matched the GRACE TWSA estimates, lending credibility to these scenarios. In addition, the majority of long-term water storage changes during the recent drought occurred in groundwater storage in the deeper subsurface.     

Measuring water availability with limited ground data: assessing the feasibility of an entirely remote‐sensing‐based hydrologic budget of the Rufiji Basin,Tanzania, using TRMM,GRACE, MODIS,SRB, and AIRS

This study explores the feasibility of an entirely satellite remote sensing (RS)‐based hydrologic budget model for a ground data‐constrained basin, the Rufiji basin in Tanzania, from the balance of runoff (Q), precipitation (P), storage change (ΔS), and evapotranspiration (ET). P was determined from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, ΔS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and ET from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, the surface radiation budget, and the Atmosphere Infrared Radiation Sounder. Q was estimated as a residual of the water balance and tested against measured Q for a sub‐basin of the Rufiji (the Usangu basin) where ground measurements were available (R² = 0.58, slope = 1.9, root mean square error = 29 mm/month, bias = 14%). We also tested a geographical information system (GIS)‐driven (ArcCN‐runoff) runoff model (R² = 0.64, slope = 0.43, root mean square error = 39 mm/month). We conducted an error propagation analysis from each of the model's hydrologic components (P, ET, and ΔS). We find that the RS‐based model amplitude is most sensitive to ET and slightly less so to P, whereas the model's seasonal trends are most sensitive to ?S. Although RS–GIS‐driven models are becoming increasingly used, our results indicate that long‐term water resource assessment policy and management may be more appropriate than ‘instantaneous’ or short‐term water resource assessment. However, our analyses help develop a series of tools and techniques to progress our understanding of RS–GIS in water resource management of data‐constrained basins at the level of a water resource manager. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What impact will climate change have on rural groundwater supplies in Africa?

Abstract

One of the key uncertainties surrounding the impacts of climate change in Africa is the effect on the sustainability of rural water supplies. Many of these water supplies abstract from shallow groundwater (<50 m) and are the sole source of safe drinking water for rural populations. Analysis of existing rainfall and recharge studies suggests that climate change is unlikely to lead to widespread catastrophic failure of improved rural groundwater supplies. These require only 10 mm of recharge annually per year to support a hand pump, which should still be achievable for much of the continent, although up to 90 million people may be affected in marginal groundwater recharge areas (200–500 mm annual rainfall). Lessons learnt from groundwater source behaviour during recent droughts, substantiated by groundwater modelling, indicate that increased demand on dispersed water points, as shallow unimproved sources progressively fail, poses a much greater risk of individual source failure than regional resource depletion. Low yielding sources in poor aquifers are most at risk. Predicted increased rainfall intensity may also increase the risk of contamination of very shallow groundwater. Looking to the future, an increase in major groundwater-based irrigation systems, as food prices rise and surface water becomes more unreliable, may threaten long-term sustainability as competition for groundwater increases. To help prepare for increased climate variability, it is essential to understand the balance between water availability, access to water, and use/demand. In practice, this means increasing access to secure domestic water, understanding and mapping renewable and non-renewable groundwater resources, promoting small-scale irrigation and widening the scope of early warning systems and mapping to include access to water.     

Three-Dimensional Simulation of Volatile Organic Compound Mass Flux from the Vadose Zone to Groundwater

Low-permeability layers of the vadose zone containing volatile organic compounds (VOCs) may persist as source zones for long time periods and may provide contamination to groundwater. At sites with low recharge rates, where vapor migration is the dominant transport process, the impact of vadose zone sources on groundwater may be difficult to assess. Typical assessment methods include one-dimensional numerical and analytical techniques. The one-dimensional approaches only consider groundwater coupling options through boundary conditions at the water table and may yield artificially high mass flux results when transport is assumed to occur by gas-phase diffusion between a source and an interface with a zero concentration boundary condition. Improvements in mass flux assessments for VOCs originating from vadose zone sources may be obtained by coupling vadose zone gas transport and dissolved contaminant transport in the saturated zone and by incorporating the inherent three-dimensional nature of gas-phase transport, including the potential of density-driven advection. This paper describes a series of three-dimensional simulations using data from the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford site, where carbon tetrachloride is present in a low-permeability zone about 30 m above the groundwater. Results show that, for most cases, only a relatively small amount of the contaminant emanating from the source zone partitions into the groundwater and that density-driven advection is only important when relatively high source concentrations are considered.     

Impacts on groundwater recharge areas of megacity pumping: analysis of potential contamination of Kolkata,India, water supply

Abstract

Water supply to the world’s megacities is a problem of quantity and quality that will be a priority in the coming decades. Heavy pumping of groundwater beneath these urban centres, particularly in regions with low natural topographic gradients, such as deltas and floodplains, can fundamentally alter the hydrological system. These changes affect recharge area locations, which may shift closer to the city centre than before development, thereby increasing the potential for contamination. Hydrogeological simulation analysis allows evaluation of the impact on past, present and future pumping for the region of Kolkata, India, on recharge area locations in an aquifer that supplies water to over 13 million people. Relocated recharge areas are compared with known surface contamination sources, with a focus on sustainable management of this urban groundwater resource. The study highlights the impacts of pumping on water sources for long-term development of stressed city aquifers and for future water supply in deltaic and floodplain regions of the world.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Sahu, P., Michael, H.A., Voss, C.I., and Sikdar, P.K., 2013. Impacts on groundwater recharge areas of megacity pumping: analysis of potential contamination of Kolkata, India, water supply. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (6), 1340–1360.     

Machine Learning Predictions of pH in the Glacial Aquifer System,Northern USA

A boosted regression tree model was developed to predict pH conditions in three dimensions throughout the glacial aquifer system of the contiguous United States using pH measurements in samples from 18,386 wells and predictor variables that represent aspects of the hydrogeologic setting. Model results indicate that the carbonate content of soils and aquifer materials strongly controls pH and, when coupled with long flowpaths, results in the most alkaline conditions. Conversely, in areas where glacial sediments are thin and carbonate-poor, pH conditions remain acidic. At depths typical of drinking-water supplies, predicted pH >7.5—which is associated with arsenic mobilization—occurs more frequently than predicted pH <6—which is associated with water corrosivity and the mobilization of other trace elements. A novel aspect of this model was the inclusion of numerically based estimates of groundwater flow characteristics (age and flowpath length) as predictor variables. The sensitivity of pH predictions to these variables was consistent with hydrologic understanding of groundwater flow systems and the geochemical evolution of groundwater quality. The model was not developed to provide precise estimates of pH at any given location. Rather, it can be used to more generally identify areas where contaminants may be mobilized into groundwater and where corrosivity issues may be of concern to prioritize areas for future groundwater monitoring.     

Risk assessment of water erosion for the Qareh Aghaj subbasin, southern Iran

South of the Zagros belt, the entire land of Southern Iran faces problems arising out of various types of land degradation of which water erosion forms a major type. A new model has been developed for assessing the risk of water erosion. Taking into consideration nine indicators of water erosion the model identifies areas with ‘Potential Risk’ (risky zones) and areas of ‘Actual Risk’ as well as projects the probability of the worse degradation in future. The Qareh Aghaj subbasin (1,265,000 ha), which covers the upper reaches of Mond River, has been chosen for a test risk assessment of this kind. The preparation of risk maps based on the GIS analysis of these indicators will be helpful for prioritizing the areas to initiate remedial measures. The different kinds of data for indicators of water erosion were gathered from the records and published reports of the governmental offices of Iran. By fixing the thresholds of severity classes of the nine indicators a hazard map for each indicator was first prepared in GIS. The risk classes were defined on the basis of risk scores arrived at by assigning the appropriate attributes to the indicators and the risk map was prepared by overlaying nine hazard maps in the GIS. Areas under potential risk have been found to be widespread (63%) in the basin and when classified into subclasses with different probability levels the model projects a statistical picture of the risk of land degradation.